[The following is a paid advertisement.]
It just keeps…Getting…BIGGER!
FIRST Exelon demanded a $2.6 billion Low Carbon Portfolio Standard, then they increased the cost to $8 BILLION with the “Next Generation Energy Plan.” Now, Exelon demands legislators pass the LARGEST RATE HIKE IN US HISTORY – the $24 BILLION “Future Energy Jobs Bill”, adding BILLIONS for downstate Dynegy plants that burn Wyoming coal – not even Illinois coal.
The $24 BILLION rate increase will provide a subsidy for nuclear and coal plants that would have otherwise closed because they are no longer competitive in the Illinois market. Last year Illinois generated 41% more power than we needed even as demand continued to shrink.
As Crain’s recently pointed out in their editorial, “Illinois ratepayers will effectively be paying more so ratepayers in other states who use our surplus power will pay less. And that’s just another incentive for commercial and industrial consumers – and employers – to jump the border.”
This $24 BILLION energy tax on the Illinois economy will hurt consumers and businesses. It is opposed by Illinois’ leading consumer groups including AARP and the Attorney General’s office.
Illinois can’t solve the budget crisis but it’s considering a $24 billion energy tax????
JUST SAY NO TO THE EXELON BAILOUT
BEST Coalition is a 501C4 nonprofit group of dozens of business, consumer and government groups, as well as large and small businesses. Visit www.noexelonbailout.com.
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* More in a bit…
*** UPDATE 1 *** Catherine Kelly at the governor’s office…
“Today’s decision is fair for taxpayers and state employees. As a result of this agreed-to process, the state can now implement its contract, saving the taxpayers more than $3 billion over four years.
“The contract, mirroring agreements we have already reached with eighteen other unions, includes merit pay for the vast majority of AFSCME employees and the same forty-hour work week requirement that applies to most employees outside state government. It will also allow individuals to volunteer their time to help fellow Illinois residents through things like assisting social services agencies, cleaning up state parks, or training state employees.
“We thank the Labor Board for its careful work and hope AFSCME will partner with us as we consider how best to implement the contract.”
*** UPDATE 2 *** This is a full impasse, I’m told. So the governor can impose his last, best and final offer. According to the Illinois Policy Institute, it was a 5-0 decision. Three of those five were appointed by Pat Quinn.
From Treasurer Frerichs…
“The governor’s labor board decision today is disappointing. Illinois workers have stated clearly their desire to work while negotiating in good faith. The good news is this: The governor could choose to return to the bargaining table. I urge him to do exactly that.”
*** UPDATE 3 *** AFSCME…
The state panel of the Illinois Labor Relations Board, whose members are appointed by Governor Rauner, today issued a verbal ruling that contract negotiations between the Rauner Administration and AFSCME Council 31—the largest union of state employees, representing some 38,000 Illinois state workers—are at an impasse.
“Our union strongly disagrees with this ruling,” AFSCME Council 31 Executive Director Roberta Lynch said. “We have consistently made clear that we are prepared to continue negotiating, while the Rauner Administration’s extreme demands, unfair labor practices and refusal to meet have sabotaged the collective bargaining process.”
The board’s ruling in effect rejects the recommended decision and order advanced in September by its own administrative law judge who presided over months of hearings in the case last spring.
“The judge who heard the facts in this case found there was no impasse on key issues and urged the board to order Governor Rauner back to the bargaining table. The board is wrong to ignore her findings,” Lynch said.
Rauner is demanding that employees pay 100% more for health care even as he would freeze their wages for four years. He also wants to do away with standards that prevent unaccountable outsourcing of public services for private profit.
An impasse ruling from the board opens the door for Governor Rauner to try to unilaterally impose his demands, but does not require him to do so.
“The governor is trying to force state workers to accept his unfair terms or go out on strike,” Lynch said. “Rauner’s path of conflict and confrontation is unfair to workers and wrong for the people of Illinois.”
Instead, Rauner could opt to renew the negotiations he broke off more than 10 months ago. His representatives walked away from the bargaining table on Jan. 8 and have refused to meet with the union’s bargaining committee ever since.
“The governor should negotiate, not dictate,” Lynch said. “Public service workers in state government deserve fair treatment and they want to do their jobs. They know that a strike would hurt every Illinoisan. That’s why our union has said repeatedly that we want to work constructively toward a settlement. We have not seen the same commitment from the governor.”
Rauner cannot seek to implement his terms until the board issues a final written ruling—not just today’s verbal order—in the days or weeks ahead. Once the order is issued, the union will appeal it in state court.
Illinois state employees represented by AFSCME Council 31 protect kids from abuse and neglect, care for veterans and individuals with developmental disabilities, keep prisons safe, respond to emergencies, maintain state parks and historic sites and provide many other vital public services statewide every day.
Emphasis added.
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Don’t kid yourself, Rauner loves this stuff
Tuesday, Nov 15, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Count me as a Pat Gauen fan, but on this we’re gonna have to agree to disagree…
My big question for 2018 is whether Rauner, a very rich businessman and not a politician, will want to stick around. This mess cannot be fun for a guy who certainly can afford happier diversions.
It reminds me a bit of Peter Fitzgerald, another rich Republican who in 1999 put his money behind winning what is now to be Duckworth’s Senate seat. He alienated a lot of Republicans, seemed to bore of his prize and just walked away at the end of his term.
And hey, Fitzgerald didn’t need smoke and mirrors to keep the statehouse lights on, or have to wake up every morning and face Madigan.
All true about Fitz. But Rauner seems to love his job, and he clearly relishes this fight with Madigan.
He isn’t going anywhere unless he loses his reelection bid.
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* From the Illinois Policy Institute…
The regulatory cost of doing business in Illinois remains the highest in the Midwest for workers’ compensation, according to the 2016 Oregon Workers’ Compensation Premium Rate Ranking study. Illinois’ out-of-balance workers’ compensation laws contribute to the Land of Lincoln’s loss of industrial investment and blue-collar job opportunities. Illinois manufacturing firms often cite workers’ compensation as a primary reason for the loss of rewarding industrial job opportunities in Illinois. And taxpayers cover the cost of workers’ compensation for government employees and for workers on public construction projects, making workers’ compensation an important government budgetary issue.
The Oregon study ranks all 50 states plus Washington, D.C., for average workers’ compensation costs. According to the study, Illinois ranks as the most expensive state in the region, and ties with Oklahoma as the seventh-most-expensive state in the country. Illinois’ average cost is $2.23 per $100 of payroll, though costs within Illinois vary substantially among different industries. Other states in the region ranged from 12th-most-expensive in the country (Wisconsin) to 50th-most-expensive (Indiana).
Illinois has ranked as the most expensive state in the region every year since the 2010 Oregon study. While a state’s average cost per $100 of payroll is the best overall indicator of each state’s relative competitiveness, the average gives only a partial view of the situation within each industry. Industry-specific cost comparisons provide a more complete view of the regulatory cost differences between states, and reveal that Illinois is especially uncompetitive with surrounding states in several blue-collar industries.
Background
The state of Oregon began producing its biennial study in 1986 as a way to assess and address problems within its workers’ compensation system. Oregon has continued producing the report in all even-numbered years since 1986, and the most recent iteration of the study is based on workers’ compensation premium rates in effect as of January 2016. The study produces an index rate for each state, which is a type of weighted average of workers’ compensation costs across industries using a consistent mix of 50 occupation classifications for all states. This control of occupation classifications allows for an apples-to-apples comparison between state averages without having to worry about the various weightings of different industries in each state. As a result, the interstate variance in industrial composition and occupational hazards does not skew the rankings.
Furthermore, comparing the cost of workers’ compensation per $100 of payroll controls for different wage rates in different areas of the country. Just because a state has higher wages does not mean that state should have higher premium rates. That’s because premium rates are taken as a percentage of wages, which factors in how high or low wages are. In other words, a premium rate of $2 per $100 of payroll on an $80,000 worker produces twice the amount of premium as the same premium rate does on a $40,000 worker. Thus, the difference in wage rates between states is not a factor in the Oregon comparisons because the rates are essentially a percentage of overall payroll, which accounts for whether wages are high or low.
Illinois’ position in the rankings has varied significantly over the last dozen years, and has been especially uncompetitive since 2008. As recently as 2004, Illinois ranked in the middle of the pack nationally with the 23rd-most-expensive system in the U.S., nearly equal to the study’s median rate and lower than regional competitors Ohio, Kentucky, Minnesota and Missouri.
However, former Gov. Rod Blagojevich’s 2005 legislation contributed to higher costs in Illinois, making the state significantly less competitive. Illinois rose to the 10th-most-expensive state by 2008 and third-most-expensive in 2010. Despite enacting cost savings legislation in 2011 – legislation that fell far short as a measure to put Illinois in line with surrounding states – Illinois was the fourth-most-expensive state for workers’ compensation costs in 2012. In the 2014 study, Illinois ranked seventh-most-expensive, and has tied for the seventh-most-expensive state in the 2016 rankings.
That 2005 bill was a killer, which is why I agree with Louis Atsaves that we should roll back at least some of the increase that year for permanent partial disability.
Anyway, you should read the whole thing. And click here for the full Oregon study.
*** UPDATE 1 *** Sean Stott at the Laborers Union disagrees…
With all of the shortcomings of the Oregon study (how many logging companies are in Illinois?), one of the biggest is that it does not incorporate the most current data and the most recent trends.
Illinois’ overall recommended WC insurance rates have dropped 29 percent since the pro-employer WC law changes of 2011, including a whopping 13% rate cut for the upcoming year. In large part, those reductions are due to plummeting medical costs (which represent about half of all WC claims’ costs). The Oregon study does not take those facts into account. The question then becomes, are the insurance companies passing these savings along to Illinois employers?
Obviously, the Oregon report conveniently fits into the IPI/Rauner narrative. The facts don’t. Lawmakers should not take the “causation” cleaver to the Workers Comp system (and injured workers) as the Governor has proposed. Let the 2011 changes continue to lower our costs and/or hold the feet of the insurance industry to the fire.
*** UPDATE 2 *** From ITLA and the Illinois AFL-CIO…
Reduced benefits for injured workers, lowered medical reimbursements, denied claims, costs dropping and insurance company profits skyrocketing - this is the reality of Illinois workers’ compensation today.
To lower costs for businesses, workers gave up longstanding rights as part of the 2011 changes to the state workers’ comp law; insurance companies, in return, were to be transparent with pricing and pass savings along to employers. As it turns out, only the injured workers have kept up their end of the bargain.
It is undeniable that costs for insurers in Illinois are dropping and profits are dramatically rising. The Illinois Department of Insurance’s 2016 Workers’ Compensation Insurance Oversight Report reveals insurers in Illinois saw profits increase by 1.7 percent in 2015, which is better than the national average. Profits in the insurance workers’ compensation market in Illinois have significantly increased - up by 21.6 percent since 2010.
The same report reveals that in Illinois the workers’ compensation loss ratio – the difference between claims paid by an insurer to the premiums collected - has drastically improved since 2011. The loss ratio decreased by 7.2 percent in 2015, well ahead of the national average. This drop brings Illinois’ loss ratio below that of the national average.
The National Council on Compensation Insurance (NCCI – an insurance industry rate making agency which provides workers’ compensation information) has issued its workers’ compensation advisory rates for 2017. If insurers follow the guidance provided by NCCI, Illinois employers should see a 12.9 percent cut in their workers’ compensation premiums this year alone. This is the third largest cut in the nation and totals more than Kentucky and Missouri combined. While the NCCI recommended a rate increase for Indiana in 2017.
It is irrefutable that costs in Illinois are dropping for insurers and they are not passing along the savings to employers. The business community continues to cry out for more changes to the workers’ compensation system; however, any further changes to workers’ compensation laws in Illinois must focus on insurance reform and oversight because despite significantly lowered costs, the insurance industry is keeping those savings for themselves, rather than sharing them with employers in the form of premium decreases or refunds. Instead there are demands more “reforms” that only further erode the medical and lost income rights of injured workers and will boost the insurance industry’s bottom line profits by shifting the burden to care for the injured onto the taxpayers.
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* House Speaker Michael Madigan emerged from today’s leaders meeting to say the four tops would meet with the governor again tomorrow.
Madigan said he would appoint Rep. Greg Harris (D-Chicago) to head a new budget negotiating team. Harris chairs an approp committee. “I’m sure there’ll be a more open discussion” at tomorrow’s meeting with Rep. Harris leading negotiations, Madigan said.
* But the Republican leaders emerged afterward to say they’d watched the live video of Madigan’s chat with reporters and they were “confused” by Madigan’s plan to appoint a budget negotiator.
“There was no agreement that there would be another round of negotiating teams,” said Senate GOP Leader Christine Radogno. She said Madigan raised the subject, but nothing was agreed during the meeting. “Another round of working groups at the mid-level was not part of the agreement.”
“We are not interested in reconstituting the working groups,” House Republican Leader Jim Durkin said, adding that it’s now up to the leaders and the governor to cut a deal. The budget working group, he said, appears to be an attempt by Madigan to once again “run out the clock.”
“The rank and file Democrats are desperate for a comprehensive budget,” Durkin claimed, saying Gov. Rauner may end up putting off some of his Turnaround Agenda in order to get a deal.
Radogno said the plan is to return tomorrow and negotiate off the framework devised by the budgetary working group earlier this year. But there would have to be adjustments, particularly in pension funding.
* Madigan, by the way, said the governor talked about pension reform and new revenue.
Senate President John Cullerton didn’t talk to reporters.
Make sure to follow our live coverage post for instant updates.
…Adding… Raw audio of Speaker Madigan’s comments…
* And here’s raw audio of the Republican leaders’ comments…
*** UPDATE *** The Tribune’s take…
Democratic Speaker Michael Madigan on Tuesday indicated there won’t be a state budget unless Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner sets aside his economic agenda, prompting the governor’s allies to accuse the House leader of placing the state “in peril.”
Madigan’s comments followed a closed-door meeting with Rauner and legislative leaders as a temporary stopgap budget to keep government afloat through the end of the year is set to expire. It was the first time the group has been in a room together in several months and followed tens of millions of dollars in campaign attack ads on both sides that sought to demonize Madigan and Rauner as the cause of the record impasse.
The speaker emerged from the half-hour meeting on the first day of the fall session saying another deal to get state government through the end of its budget year in July could happen if Rauner follows “the framework” for previous stopgap agreements. That’s Madigan-speak encouraging Rauner to set aside his so-called Turnaround Agenda, which the governor has made a prerequisite of a larger budget deal.
“If you use the same framework, the odds are you’ll get a budget to finish off this fiscal year, you’ll be able to provide a good level of funding for education, you’ll be able to provide for public safety, you’ll be able to provide for the seniors and the vulnerable in our society,” Madigan said.
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Dart continues call to abolish cash bail
Tuesday, Nov 15, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Sun-Times…
Cook County Sheriff Tom Dart is calling for abolishing the state’s cash-bond system, saying it’s unfair to low-level defendants who can’t afford to pay and puts society in danger when defendants with violent backgrounds have the money to post bail and are freed until trial.
Dart is believed to be the first elected official in Illinois to propose that the General Assembly scrap the system, said Cara Smith, his top policy official. It would require a change to Illinois’ bail statute — a daunting political challenge.
Currently, judges set bail for most people charged with crimes. Defendants typically need to pay 10 percent of that amount to obtain a bond to get out of jail before trial. In some cases, judges allow for a “recognizance bond,” in which no payment is required.
Dart is proposing a system in which a judge would decide whether a defendant should be released from jail until trial based solely on an intensive background investigation by the court’s staff.
“It would be similar to the investigation that is done on the federal level,” Smith said, adding that it would be more extensive that what is currently being done in Cook County.
* Tribune…
Even advocates acknowledge a switch from the cash-bail system won’t be easily accomplished, in part because of necessary legislative changes and significant cost shifting.
The cash bonds are often used as payment to criminal defense lawyers once a case has been concluded — and to cover part of the fines or fees assessed by judges as well as the 10 percent that goes to cover the expenses of the circuit court clerk’s office. If defense attorneys lose that key revenue source, more cases could go to the taxpayer-funded public defender’s office.
“From the judicial point of view, I think the argument is compelling,” said Winnebago County Chief Judge Joseph McGraw, who chairs the Illinois conference of chief judges. “Looking at the other side of the coin … a lot of other costs will be shifted if we don’t have cash bond.”
Thoughts?
* Related…
* Lawsuit Challenges High Bonds Set by Judges in Chicago
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It all becomes clear
Tuesday, Nov 15, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Maybe now we know why Speaker Madigan isn’t going to Rome with Gov. Rauner this week. Madigan is a White Sox fan…
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* Tribune…
Community groups, many aligned with the Chicago Teachers Union, are reviving demands to toss out Mayor Emanuel’s appointed school board and replace it with a body selected by voters.
Supporters of an elected school board want state senators to take up a House bill that would do just that. In its current form, the measure would provide for an election for the Chicago Board of Education on a separate ballot in 2018 and divide the city into 20 electoral districts for each seat. Candidates would have to be registered voters and residents of the city for at least one year preceding their election.
The House legislation passed by a 110-4 margin in March, as Speaker Michael Madigan tweaked Emanuel, who opposes an elected school board. Now, a coalition of groups that operate under the umbrella of the Grassroots Education Movement say they want the Senate to have the bill on Gov. Rauner’s desk by the end of the fall session that starts Tuesday.
The bill’s Senate co-sponsors include Sens. Kwame Raoul, Mattie Hunter, William Delgado and Heather Steans. But there’s no indication the bill is going anywhere anytime soon — the chamber is run by Senate President John Cullerton, a top Emanuel ally.
* Sen. Kwame Raoul press release from earlier this month…
Raoul discussed plans to amend the legislation to alleviate some of the concerns he shares with the parents and other stakeholders. This would include reducing the board to 15 members to bring it more in line with other major school boards across the country and including a run-off provision that would put the two highest vote earners head-to-head.
Raoul anticipates a hearing on the legislation when the Senate returns for its fall session later this month.
So far, though, no hearing has been posted and no amendments have been filed. Click here to track the bill.
*** UPDATE 1 *** No amendment was filed, but the Senate just posted it for the Education Committee tomorrow.
*** UPDATE 2 *** The amendment has now been filed. Click here to read it.
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*** UPDATED x1 *** Vrdolyak indicted again
Tuesday, Nov 15, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Jon Seidel with the scoop…
Onetime powerhouse Chicago alderman Edward R. Vrdolyak, who went to prison after pleading guilty to a high-profile financial scam in 2008, has been indicted on charges of impeding the IRS and income tax evasion.
Vrdolyak had surfaced last year in a federal indictment that accused Daniel Soso, a Chicago attorney, of evading nearly $800,000 in income taxes.
Vrdolyak wasn’t identified by name in the Soso indictment but was revealed in court to be the unnamed “Individual A” in that indictment.
* More…
*** UPDATE *** It was about the tobacco settlement…
The indictment alleges Vrdolyak collected attorney fees in connection with the record $9.2 billion settlement in 1998 between the Illinois attorney general and a number of tobacco companies, even though Vrdolyak was never authorized to perform any work for the state on the lawsuit.
Vrdolyak’s lawyer, Michael Monico, said he is dismayed by the government’s decision to again charge Vrdolyak. He said the former longtime alderman will plead not guilty to the two-count indictment in federal court next Tuesday.
Monico said Vrdolyak had set aside the amount he believes he owes in taxes — more than $250,000 — in an escrow account and was waiting to turn it over when the government formally requested it.
“We have been waiting for the government to request it in the appropriate way,” Monico said. “This is an old case. The government made a mistake in the way they did this levy notice, and we’ve had this money in escrow — for years.”
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ILRB impasse ruling could happen today
Tuesday, Nov 15, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Kim Geiger…
A nearly two-years-in-the-making labor dispute between Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner’s administration and the largest state worker union is set to come to a head Tuesday when the Illinois Labor Relations Board meets to weigh in on the issue. […]
For months, an administrative law judge at the labor board took testimony and collected paperwork on the case, ultimately producing a 400-page decision that left the situation even murkier. The judge found that the parties were at impasse on some issues, but not on others. She recommended that the administration be allowed to impose its final offer on the impasse issues and return to the negotiating table on the others.
Both sides objected to the decision.
Now it’s up to the labor board, whose members are appointed by the governor, to deliver the final word. Tuesday’s hearing in Chicago will feature a presentation from the labor board’s executive director followed by an expected oral ruling from the panel of appointees. The board can decide to uphold the administrative law judge’s recommendations, or it can issue a different decision.
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* From Abe Scarr, the director of Illinois PIRG, on the coming override of the governor’s automatic voter registration veto…
Rich,
We expect SB250 to be called in the Senate today and for it to pass that chamber. I also just heard that the Senate Republicans will be introducing a competing AVR bill, with the blessing of the Governor. This makes me think it will be harder to get R’s on board to override the veto. We hope to have at least a handful of Republicans on in the Senate and may still be able to override in the House with just Democrats, but of course that super-majority has not held and we have attendance issues to contend with during veto.
I will withhold any judgment of their bill on the merits until I have a chance to read it, but it is certainly late in the game to introduce an alternative measure, and it’s hard to read as much more than cover to not support the override. No member of our coalition or the bill sponsors were consulted for input in the drafting of this counter-proposal.
I can share more as I learn more.
Abe
*** UPDATE *** As expected…
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A look at the exit polls
Tuesday, Nov 15, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Pearson digs into exit polling…
Nationally, white voters made up 70 percent of the electorate and they went strongly for Trump — 58 percent, to 37 percent for Clinton. In Illinois, whites represented 65 percent of the vote and they split equally between the two contenders at 47 percent. […]
Nationally, white men made up 34 percent of the vote and sided with Trump at a 2-to-1 rate: 63 percent to 31 percent for Clinton. In Illinois, white males represented 32 percent of the vote, but the split was much closer: 49 percent for Trump to 41 percent for Clinton. […]
National exit poll results showed white females making up 37 percent of the vote and favoring Trump 53 percent to 43 percent, despite Clinton’s theme of seeking to become the first woman president. In Illinois, Clinton won the white female vote. That group made up 33 percent of the electorate, but 52 percent sided with Clinton to 45 percent for Trump. […]
White women with a college degree, thought to be Clinton’s base, represented about one-fifth of voters nationally. But Clinton failed to run up the score, taking 51 percent of these voters to 45 percent for Trump.
However, in Illinois, where white college graduate women represented 18 percent of the vote, Clinton nearly doubled up Trump at 64 percent to 33 percent.
You can delve into the exit polling numbers yourself by clicking here. Tell us what you find.
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Corporate tax hike proposal slammed by IMA
Tuesday, Nov 15, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From the Illlinois Manufacturers Association…
Late today, Rep. Will Davis (D-Crestwood) filed a 581-page amendment to HB 293 that is posted for a hearing in the House Revenue & Finance Committee on Tuesday, November 15. This massive amendment would RAISE TAXES ON EMPLOYERS BY MORE THAN $2.5 BILLION to help balance the state’s budget.
The amendment reflects language that we have previously seen on several occasions, most recently in HB 4300 (Franks) that was never called for a vote.
The proposals included in the amendment as described by the proponents include the following:
* Increase the corporate income tax rate from 5.25 percent to 6 percent
* Create alternative minimum corporate tax based NH model
* Eliminate the Manufacturing Machinery & Equipment exemption
* Eliminating the Single Sales Factor (adds property & payroll tax on manufacturers)
* Eliminating the foreign & domestic divided deduction
* Eliminate the Research & Development credit (it is currently expired)
* Decoupling from federal Qualified Production deduction
* Repeal the Estate Tax exemption increase
* Repeal the non-combination rule
* Eliminate the continental shelf exemption
* Eliminate Enterprise Zones
* Eliminate EDGE tax credits
* Reform the Retailer¹s Discount (KY model)
* Reform other collection discounts
* Eliminate E-10 incentive
* Eliminate rolling stock exemption
* Eliminate the water¹s edge credit
* Eliminate rail carrier sales tax exemption
* Treat online hotel booking the same as telephone
* Cap the Film tax credit
* Extend sales tax to Internet downloads
* Eliminate subsidies for coal companies
* Enact a 5 percent severance tax on coal gross production value
* Repeal the CME/CBOE tax incentive
* End the for profit hospital tax break
* Eliminate the High Impact Business investment credit and dividend subtraction
* Require world-wide reporting or water¹s edge with full inclusion of foreign dividends and foreign tax havens
* Require airlines to pay tax on all of their taxable income
The legislation is here.
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More finger-pointing
Tuesday, Nov 15, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Tina Sfondeles at the Sun-Times…
Madigan spokesman Steve Brown said the responses from Republican leaders on Monday have all been heard before: “Clearly it was nothing new. We’ve already heard this 30 times before. Maybe tomorrow they’ll have a budget to propose.”
Background is here.
Brown is right that the governor has yet to propose a real budget as the state Constitution requires. But the General Assembly is also required by that very same document to pass a balanced budget, and it has not done so in a long while.
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State GOP: “Madiganizing” the message worked
Monday, Nov 14, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From Illinois Republican Party Executive Director Nick Klitzing…
The Democrats’ First Big Test
After losing six legislative seats as a result of his obstructionism, House Speaker Mike Madigan doubled and tripled down on his politically-failing strategy of trying to block all efforts to reform state government and balance the budget.
On Tuesday, Madigan issued a scathing statement in response to the election results. Last night, he backed out of meeting with Governor Rauner and other legislative leaders. If Madigan continues to dig in, Illinois Democrats face a critical choice: they can either let Madigan bury them or they can prove their independence.
A Losing Position
Throughout the summer and fall, internal polling showed that Illinois voters overwhelmingly blamed Mike Madigan for the condition of the state and the budget impasse. And relentlessly “Madiganizing the message” worked.
In a Presidential election year, with Hillary Clinton winning at the top of the ticket by over 15 points, Republicans dealt Madigan’s Democrats a significant blow down ballot by localizing races and focusing on his leadership.
Among the Democrats’ losses were top Madigan Lieutenants John Bradley and Kate Cloonen. Both handily outspent their opponents, but lost because of their deep ties to Madigan.
Madigan also spent millions and deployed his top political operatives trying to defeat Rep. Michael McAuliffe, the only Republican legislator whose district is in Chicago. Rep. McAuliffe trounced his opponent by 13 points by tying her to Madigan.
Voters understood that electing Democrats to the General Assembly in down ballot races meant strengthening Madigan’s power. They rejected Madigan, handily breaking Madigan’s supermajority.
The Test
Soon, the remaining Illinois Democrats will face their own critical test as they decide beginning this week whether to re-elect Mike Madigan as Speaker and unquestioned leader of their Party.
Will Democrats risk their own political futures by standing by the most unpopular political leader in Illinois?
If you want to know who the targeted Democrats will be in 2018, you can start by watching who continues to support Mike Madigan as Speaker.
Then, Democrats must also follow through on their promises. In races across the state, winning Democratic candidates co-opted Republican legislative proposals - backing term limits, redistricting reform and a property tax freeze - in their messaging. Now, it’s time for them to deliver – or be held accountable by voters in 2018.
Thoughts?
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“We are at a tipping point”
Monday, Nov 14, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From a letter to the governor and the four leaders from the Illinois Council of Community College Presidents…
We write to each of you today to ensure that you are fully aware of the damage that has been and continues to be inflicted on the students and communities that rely on the State’s Community College system.
The lack of a budget over the course of the last two fiscal years has caused hundreds of layoffs of valued staff and faculty, closure of programs, and divestment of services that our system has slowly, dutifully, and methodically built over the last half century. Understand that the ultimate victims of this budget impasse are the students, the families, and the communities that are no longer served as they should be and as they once were. The damage is both real and measureable.
We are at a tipping point. If this impasse continues, the consequence will be profound and lasting. Payrolls will not be met, programs will be closed, staff and faculty will be reduced to mere shells. To be clear, we are far beyond the point of reducing administrative costs, and suspending travel.
Without a reliable and consistent budgeting process, Colleges will close and students will be turned away. We can’t use regulatory relief nor the repeal of unfunded mandates to pay our employees.
We urge cooperation and resolution to this matter as soon as possible.
Emphasis added to show that the presidents apparently don’t care about getting anything out of the Turnaround Agenda. They just want their funding.
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* Tina Sfondeles…
Illinois Comptroller-elect Susana Mendoza — who could have been sworn in as soon as Dec. 5 per special election rules — on Monday notified Leslie Munger that she’ll take the oath on Jan. 3, and she asked for regular meetings with Munger until then. […]
Because Mendoza was elected during a special election, following the death of Judy Baar Topinka, she could have assumed the position on December 5. However, Mendoza chose to take more time to transition into the post. December 5 is the first date in which she could be sworn in because the law states that once her election results are certified by the Illinois State Board of Elections, she could then take office. The results should be certified on Dec. 5.
Um, did she not know that she’s supposed to take office on the 5th? I’ve texted and called her spokesperson, but haven’t yet heard back.
* Here’s the statute…
In the case of a special election pursuant to this Section, the appointed officer shall serve until the election results are certified and the person elected at the special election is qualified.
Those results will be certified on December 5th.
There’s also a question (in my mind, anyway) about when Comptroller Munger’s official bond expires. The governor might have to reappoint her for a month.
I’ve asked the attorney general’s office for comment. They said this is the first they’d heard about it, but they’d check and get back to me.
…Adding… I didn’t notice this before, but this is from Mendoza’s letter to Munger…
Except for your gracious call on election night, we haven’t met or discussed next steps.
So, Munger’s not returning calls?
…Adding More… Maybe not. Munger was on vacation, I’m told.
*** UPDATE *** The Mendoza people say that Munger’s official bond doesn’t expire until Mendoza is sworn in and gets her own bond. The idea, I’m told, is to allow for a more smooth transition during the holidays, particularly for Munger’s employees.
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* House GOP Leader Jim Durkin emerged from the governor’s office this afternoon to ask that the Democrats not take up any veto overrides during the veto session and instead spend all their time on resolving the impasse.
“Let’s take care of the biggest issue that we have and that’s the budget,” Durkin said. “Let’s use all of our good will and our capital at solving the budget crisis.”
…Adding… The House Republican spokesperson is actively walking back Leader Durkin’s comments. He didn’t mean to say that no vetoes should be acted on, he meant to say that the GA could add days to deal with everything.
* Senate Republican Leader Christine Radogno said after the brief meeting in Rauner’s office that she was “disappointed” that Senate President John Cullerton chose not to attend because Speaker Madigan decided against going to the meeting. Radogno said that Cullerton had once again chosen to “walk in his shadow.”
She also claimed that Speaker Madigan had agreed to go to the leaders meeting “and then came up with a conflict.”
“It’s game playing,” Radogno said. Madigan, she said, is “trying to stymie the governor.” When asked about Madigan’s possible negative reaction to all the campaign commercials run against him, she said that was no excuse and claimed Madigan was “derelict” in his duties for not showing up.
“It’s completely inexcusable for the Democrats not to be here,” she said.
* Full video from BlueRoomStream.com is here.
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* Interesting…
He’s at the Statehouse, the other leaders are meeting at one o’clock, but he has a scheduling conflict. Hmm.
* From a top Rauner administration official…
The Speaker’s arrival in the Capitol is a hopeful sign that the Democratic leaders have reconsidered their decision to boycott today’s four leaders meeting. We will hold the meeting at 1pm remaining hopeful they will attend.
Gov. Rod Blagojevich called Speaker Madigan on election night in 2006. He never heard back. And by “never,” I mean Madigan didn’t call him back for over two years.
But if Madigan says he’ll reschedule we should take him at his word. Let’s hope he doesn’t put off a meeting until 2019, however.
* Either way, you can watch the leaders come and go today on BlueRoomStream by clicking here. I’ll probably do a ScribbleLive thingy on another post at the appropriate time.
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Democratic hopes dashed at state level
Monday, Nov 14, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* An Atlantic article about Jessica Post, the executive director of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, “a party organization tasked with winning back state legislatures”…
Groups like the DLCC saw the 2016 presidential election as a critical point to turn statehouses and governorships blue, and ride that momentum into the 2018 midterms—so that by 2020, the eventual redistricting process would take place under Democratic oversight. (No less important, Democratic chambers could put a stop to conservative, state-level legislation like transgender bathroom laws and rollbacks of reproductive-health services). Speaking to my colleague Russell Berman this past August, Post was downright bullish about the prospects of doing this: At that point, the DLCC hoped to flip at least 10 state chambers, and as many as 13. […]
One week ago, the DLCC’s target list included flipping seats in critical states: the Michigan House, the North Carolina House, the Pennsylvania House, the Florida Senate, both the Senate and House assemblies of Ohio, as well as Wisconsin’s State Assembly and Senate.
But on November 8, all of these states—Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin—ended up being the ones that ultimately destroyed Clinton’s chances of winning the presidency. The DLCC’s attempts to make Democratic inroads met with a similar end.
Of the 32 seats the organization had targeted in those states, Democrats won only eight. Ohio’s targeted seats remained solidly red, as did those in Wisconsin. In Michigan—once a reliably blue state—just one seat was turned. In Pennsylvania and Florida, both states that Clinton had been projected to win, two out of the four targeted senate district seats turned blue. In the end, it was only in North Carolina, a newly purple state that had been showered with significant attention, thanks to Clinton’s campaign, where the DLCC made real inroads: Three of its four House seats turned blue.
Post pointed out that the DLCC had also managed to flip three other state chambers into Democratic control—the Nevada Assembly, the Nevada Senate, and New Mexico House—both in states, not coincidentally, that Clinton won, whether because the state was reliably blue (New Mexico) or because of an extraordinary amount of resources directed there to target a changing electorate (Nevada).
* Overall, the Democratic picture is grim…
Obama’s presidency disguised the fact that the Democratic Party was getting hollowed out at the state level. They haven’t been this decimated since the 1920s.
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* Tribune…
Republican Gov. Rauner said he is hoping a trip to the Vatican will help him push “reset” with Democratic leaders he has spent the last two years battling with over the state’s finances.
Rauner said Friday that he and his wife, Diana, accepted an invitation from Mayor Emanuel to travel to Rome later this week as Chicago Archbishop Blase Cupich is elevated to the rank of cardinal.
Rauner said other members of the traveling party will include House Speaker Michael Madigan and his wife, Shirley; Senate President John Cullerton and his wife, Pam; as well as Democratic Comptroller-elect Susana Mendoza, who defeated Republican Comptroller Leslie Geissler Munger in last week’s election.
“This is a big deal. I am very excited,” Rauner said. “It will be an opportunity to spend time together for, I think, four days, which will be great.”
Apparently, the governor spoke too soon. Madigan’s spokesman Steve Brown told me this morning that Madigan and Shirley aren’t going on the trip. But Brown repeatedly emphasized that he didn’t want the no-show to reflect negatively on Cupich’s big event.
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* Sunday afternoon press release…
Mayor Rahm Emanuel today reiterated Chicago’s commitment to being a sanctuary city for immigrants and announced the city’s 311 operators have been given special instruction to assist anyone with concerns or questions about their status in Chicago or the United States.
“Since the Presidential Election, there has been a sense of uncertainty among many immigrant communities in Chicago and across the nation. I want to assure all of our families that Chicago is and will remain a Sanctuary City,” said Mayor Emanuel. “Chicago has been a city of immigrants since it was founded. We have always welcomed people of all faiths and backgrounds, and while the administration will change, our values and our commitment to inclusion will not.”
Residents are encouraged to call 311 for information about legal resources, as well as other supportive services. Families can also learn more about Chicago’s upcoming Municipal ID program by calling 311. Under a provision in the Mayor’s recently announced budget, the City will begin issuing Municipal IDs in late 2017 to ensure all Chicago residents have access to official identification. Community meetings will be scheduled throughout next year to provide more information.
* Greg Hinz…
The statement neither mentions Trump by name nor his suggestions on the campaign trail that “sanctuary cites” such as Chicago that do not help him crack down on illegal immigration could lose billions of dollars in federal spending. Nor does the statement mention the political reality that, as Emanuel begins to consider whether to run for a third term, being perceived as championing the rights of one of the city’s key voting blocks could be helpful.
New York and Los Angeles took similar steps a few days ago.
Adam Collins, the mayor’s spokesman, said the statement should be read as meaning that all city services will be provided to residents regardless of their immigration status, and that the city will not collect or furnish information to federal immigration authorities.
“This is less about anyone in Washington than ensuring people who live in Chicago feel safe,” Collins told me. “The mayor personally and many people in Chicago have certain values. Those values need to be defended.”
Collins said he did not immediately know how the policy would apply to those arrested for committing crimes.
* Politico…
In sanctuary cities, local law enforcement officials aren’t required to alert U.S. Immigration and Customs authorities about the immigration status of individuals with whom they come in contact.
On Monday, Chicago’s elected officials, including Mayor Rahm Emanuel, are expected to hold a news conference to formally discuss how the city will retain its sanctuary status. Aldermen are expected to call on Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner to pressure Trump to back off his vow to interfere with funding. […]
Illinois Comptroller-elect Susana Mendoza, whose parents are Mexican immigrants, called on Rauner to take a stand on the issue.
“As a leader of this state, the governor, and everyone in a leadership position, should be saying it’s wrong,” Mendoza told POLITICO Illinois on Sunday. “I would expect that the governor would say, ‘that’s ridiculous.’ Besides moral bankruptcy, it’s bad fiscal policy for the city or any city.
* Tribune…
Democratic U.S. Rep. Mike Quigley worries President-elect Donald Trump could use Chicago’s status as a sanctuary city for undocumented immigrants to cut off funding to the city.
Quigley addressed the issue on WLS-AM 890’s “Connected to Chicago” show after host Bill Cameron asked whether he’s concerned about Trump trying to cut off the federal funding spigot to Chicago.
“The president-elect said he would cut off all federal funding to sanctuary cities — an extraordinary thing to say, particularly for someone who says the federal government should stay out of the local governing of states and cities,” Quigley said.
“Am I concerned about it from that point of view? Absolutely,” Quigley added. “In the final analysis, though, I think if the president wants to do what he talks about, for example with a big infrastructure package, he’s going to need support across the aisle. And if he says none for Chicago, he’s not going to get any support from anybody in Chicago, frankly in the Chicagoland area.”
* NBC 5…
Mental health hotlines across the state have received an influx of calls since Trump was elected to be the nation’s 45th president, according to the Illinois Business Immigration Coalition.
“It’s scary,” said one concerned resident, Leslie Alcantar. “It feels like they could take my mom, my dad, my family.” […]
“Us hard workers, we come in illegally but we do work and that’s what he doesn’t understand,” said Tanya Govea, who lives in Chicago’s Little Village neighborhood. “If we’re not doing the jobs Americans don’t want to do, who’s going to do it?”
*** UPDATE *** Press release…
Throughout this year’s presidential campaign, Governor Rauner never officially endorsed Donald Trump as the Republican nominee, and did not attend the Republican National Convention. Less than forty percent of Illinois voters supported Mr. Trump, a clear rejection of his anti-immigrant proposals. Now, Illinois Coalition for Immigrant and Refugee Rights (ICIRR) members are calling on Governor Rauner to listen to his state’s voters, reject the President-elect’s anti-immigrant rhetoric and policies, and use his executive authority and leadership to actively advance protections for immigrants before Mr. Trump is inaugurated on January 20, 2017.
“The country just elected the most dangerous and racist president in recent history. Now is the time for local leadership to show that Illinois stands for something different,” said ICIRR board president Mony Ruiz-Velasco. “Voters in Illinois rejected Donald Trump’s anti-immigrant, misogynistic, anti-LGBTQ and xenophobic rhetoric. The governor now has a responsibility to act against Trump’s racist agenda, and advance the best interests of Illinois residents.
ICIRR members established an “Illinois Is Safe” agenda for Illinois. The Coalition is calling on the Governor to take the following actions immediately as the General Assembly reconvenes for its veto session this week:
Immediately issue an executive order designating public schools and universities “sanctuary spaces” for undocumented individuals in Illinois. Such an order would restrict officers from the Department of Homeland Security from entering “sensitive locations” included schools, places of worship and hospitals. (See https://www.ice.gov/doclib/ero-outreach/pdf/10029.2-policy.pdf)
Endorse and encourage support for House passage of the Student Access Bill (SB 2196) and sign the bill when it reaches his desk. The bill provides legal authority to four-year public universities in Illinois to provide financial aid to undocumented students who enroll at their institutions. This bill addresses educational access, a centerpiece issue of his administration. SB 2196 passed out of the Senate, and is expected to come up for a vote during veto session in the House
Use his national leadership within the Republican Party to call on President-elect Trump to maintain the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) executive order. DACA protects over 740,000 young people from deportation, including over 41,000 in Illinois with many more immigrants eligible for the program who have yet to apply. DACA grants recipients work permits and allows them to contribute to the country’s tax base. Studies have concluded that the DACA program would increase the country’s Gross Domestic Product by hundreds of billions of dollars. The Social Security Administration has estimated that the program would increase tax revenue by billions of dollars. The policy is good for Illinois’ residents and economy.
ICIRR also calls on the Governor to work in good faith with Senate and House legislatures to seek bipartisan support to protect Illinois immigrants by taking the following steps in response to the Trump administration’s priorities as soon as possible:
Support legislation to ensure that Illinois law enforcement officials are not involved in immigration enforcement. Such legislation would ensure that local law enforcement agencies do not honor burdensome and legally suspect requests from U.S Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to detain people for deportation who have otherwise been granted release by the state and municipal courts.
Propose legislation to ban private immigration detention centers in Illinois. Private prison companies have made several proposals to build in Illinois, most recently in Kankakee County. Each such proposal has been met with vociferous local resistance due to the long history of abuse, neglect, and profiteering among private facilities. Legislation is needed to bar these prisons altogether.
Work with our member organizations and other criminal justice reform allies to craft and enact sentencing reforms that limit the deportation consequences of interactions with the criminal justice system in Illinois.
“Governor Rauner has publicly supported a national immigration reform agenda,” observed ICIRR Executive Director Lawrence Benito. “He refused to join other GOP governors in suing the Obama administration regarding its pro-immigrant executive actions. On November 9, we entered a new era where more is required of all of us. Now is the time for the Governor to meet this moment and act on the principles that Illinois voters unequivocally supported in this year’s elections”
ICIRR members will be in Springfield throughout the fall veto session to advance these priorities.
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The ties that bind
Monday, Nov 14, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Tribune…
On Halloween, just eight days before the election, Donald Trump made a quiet visit to the edifice that bears his name in Chicago, where he held private meetings with his top staff as well as one-on-one talks with some Chicago businessmen.
The identities of those who met with Trump aren’t known. But it is known who orchestrated the event: Ronald Gidwitz.
As the nation readies itself for a Trump presidency, it’s clear that the one person in Illinois who can get the president-elect’s ear is Gidwitz, a businessman and entrepreneur who also is a mainstay of Republican politics.
The list of Illinoisans who will have ready access to the new president is very short indeed. Much longer is the list of Illinois Democrats who were hoping for connections with a Hillary Clinton White House and were left hanging like a 2000-era ballot chad. […]
“I’m not looking for anything,” said Gidwitz, who also has run his own political action committees but whose lone direct foray into politics was an unsuccessful bid for the Republican nomination for governor in 2006.
Um, OK.
* The Tribune may have forgotten about this guy…
One of Rauner’s top advisers outside his administration — Nick Ayers — is now heading Mike Pence’s strategy.
Pence is now running the transition team, so Ayers will have a huge influence on that. And lots of folks in Rauner World are close to the guy.
* And…
Trump named Republican Party National Chairman Reince Priebus White House Chief of staff on Sunday. Priebus is a partner on leave from the Michael Best law firm, which has legal and lobbying offices across the nation, including in Illinois. Leading Michael Best’s Illinois’ lobbying practice is Chip Englander, who headed up Gov. Bruce Rauner’s 2014 successful gubernatorial bid.
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* I was chatting with a suburban Democratic legislator yesterday who asked if I’d seen the new Crain’s Chicaog Business op-ed by Gov. Bruce Rauner. I was on the road, so I said I hadn’t gotten to it yet. To her eyes, she said, Rauner hit just the right notes and came off sounding almost liberal.
Here it is…
This has been a long, grueling campaign cycle, both nationally and locally. Now that the election is over, we have the opportunity to put the past behind us, come together and focus on the future.
The people of Illinois deserve prompt bipartisan action to solve problems and get good things done—to make Illinois more competitive so we can be more compassionate, to enact truly balanced budgets along with reforms that grow our economy and protect taxpayers. By working together we can fundamentally improve the future for the people of Illinois through term limits, lower property taxes and more jobs.
Throughout the spring and early summer, our team worked vigorously with members of the General Assembly from both parties to reach a grand bargain. In order to ensure our schools remained open and state government operations continued, we worked out a bridge funding plan to get us past the election. While a short-term fix was not our preferred option—we wanted that grand bargain—in the spirit of compromise we accepted the commitment from Democratic leaders that we would negotiate a solution following the election. This election is in the past, and it’s now time to focus on the future together.
This week the Illinois General Assembly will return to the state Capitol for its annual veto session. This is our opportunity to come together and pass a balanced budget, which is why I have invited the four legislative leaders to meet and immediately begin negotiations on an agreement containing a balanced budget and reforms.
We must include reforms that the people of Illinois are calling for—economic reform to spur job growth, education reform to ensure that every child has access to a quality education, political reform to return power back to the people, property tax reform to give homeowners and business owners much needed relief, and pension reform to get our state’s financial footing back on the right track.
Illinois is on an unsustainable path, and simply raising taxes to attempt a balanced budget will not solve our long-term structural deficits. For decades our rate of economic growth has been low and our rate of government spending growth has been very high. We must increase our growth rate for jobs and lower spending in government. We should do that not by focusing primarily on cuts to human services, but by curbing the cost of our government bureaucracy.
Go read the rest.
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Out of date and out of touch
Monday, Nov 14, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* My weekly syndicated newspaper column…
There’s been a lot of spin from the Illinois House Democrats about how last Tuesday’s losses were not that big of a deal. Don’t believe it.
During the national Republican electoral wave two years ago, Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn lost by four points to Republican Bruce Rauner and Quinn won no counties at all outside Cook. The Democrats lost the 10th and 12th Congressional District races and just barely managed to regain the state treasurer’s office. Through all that partisan turmoil, the House Democrats lost no seats and the Senate Democrats lost just one. The Democrats’ legislative district map, which produced a 7-seat net gain in the House two years earlier, was a great firewall.
This year, Democrat Hillary Clinton won Illinois by 16 points, taking ten counties outside Cook. The Democrats regained a US Senate seat (winning by 14 points), the comptroller’s office (by a four-point margin) and the 10th Congressional District seat (by 5 points).
Even so, state Democrats lost a net of four Illinois House seats.
Losing state legislative seats in a presidential year is rare. The House Democrats lost a net of one seat twelve years ago and five seats 24 years ago.
However, 1992 was the first election under a new Republican-drawn district map, so the Democrats were at a disadvantage. And it was a different era. Bill Clinton was the first Democratic presidential candidate to win Illinois in 20 years, but he took it with less than 49 percent of the vote, compared to Mrs. Clinton’s 55 percent last week.
Yes, Donald Trump’s Downstate margins certainly played a key role on Tuesday. Counties don’t vote, but he won more Downstate counties than any Republican presidential candidate since 1984.
House Speaker Michael Madigan blamed Trump and Gov. Bruce Rauner’s money for his losses. He was right on both counts. But Rauner’s money was used to craft a powerful anti-Madigan message, and there is no doubt that the message contributed heavily to Madigan’s losses. It really isn’t rocket science. Madigan is, by far, the most unpopular politician in Illinois. It doesn’t take a genius to figure out that tying Democratic candidates to him with tens of millions of dollars in disciplined messaging will work.
Clinton overwhelming won suburban Cook County 65-30, took Lake County 57-37 and romped in DuPage with a 53-39 score. But the Republicans lost no suburban incumbents this year. Why? Most likely it was because they tied all Democratic challengers as closely as they could and as often as they could to Madigan.
Ask anyone who walked a precinct this year and they’ll tell you that Madigan was a major issue at the doors, even in districts that weren’t in play.
Illinoisans don’t care much for Gov. Rauner, either, but Madigan didn’t make any sort of real effort to attach GOP candidates directly to the guy, choosing to stick mainly to his tired, old issues of accusing Republicans on the flimsiest of evidence of being soft on sexual predators and warning that Republicans wanted to take away Social Security benefits, even though that’s a federal, not a state issue.
The last time Madigan truly innovated was when the Republicans took the majority away from him in 1994. His operation is now out of date and out of touch.
The Democrats’ one Downstate bright spot this year was GOP Rep. Dwight Kay’s loss in the Metro East. But the pro-choice Personal PAC’s heavy involvement in that contest probably had as much to do with Kay’s loss as anything else. During a House floor debate, Kay essentially equated birth control with promiscuity. Not good.
Plenty of Democrats view this year’s contest as basically a wash because they figure they’ll pick up seats during President Trump’s first midterm race. That may happen, but if the Democrats couldn’t pick up suburban seats this year with Clinton’s big boost, 2018 won’t be easy, either. They’ll probably have to depend on Trump’s white working class base turning against him Downstate.
But the historical record shows that once a Downstate district moves from the Democrats to the Republicans it almost never goes back to being Democratic. The Democrats used to rule southern Illinois. They are now down to just one true, totally non-Metro East southern Illinois legislator: Rep. Brandon Phelps (D-Harrisburg). Rep. Phelps caught a break this year because his Republican opponent turned out to be seriously flawed.
The bottom line is Madigan has led his party into an endless war with a kabillionaire and it wound up costing him four seats in a year when his people should’ve been coasting.
* Related…
* Western Illinois county reveals the Land of Lincoln’s electoral divide: In Henry County, the results underscore the diversity that makes the Land of Lincoln a place many consider an authentic microcosm of the U.S. This year’s unofficial vote totals in Henry County show almost 14,000 people cast ballots for Trump, while about 9,000 voted for Clinton. In the previous two presidential elections, Henry County chose Democrat Barack Obama. In 2004, the county went red for Republican George W. Bush.
* Tide turns in Illinois: Trump leads GOP charge in counties: On Trump’s coattails, Gov. Bruce Rauner and the GOP eroded a Democratic supermajority in the Illinois House. But with Clinton atop the ticket, fellow Democratic women won statewide offices for U.S. Senate and comptroller.
* Election did little to alter Illinois’ political landscape: Unsurprisingly, each party had its own interpretation of the election results.
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[Comments are now open on this post.]
* From Steve Brown…
STATEMENT OF SPEAKER MADIGAN ON PROPOSSED MEETING.
A short time ago, I determined a schedule conflict will prevent a meeting with the Governor and other legislative leaders.
We will continue to work to schedule a meeting and look forward to getting an agenda for the meeting from the Governor
* From John Patterson…
The Senate President is looking forward to meeting with the governor and Republican leaders. But it would not be productive if we don’t have a full complement there. Hopefully we can reschedule for Tuesday. The Senate President is available.
…Adding… From Catherine Kelly…
Hi, Rich -
The meeting is still on.
In addition, we hope the Speaker reconsiders. At no time since invite went out has potential scheduling conflict been brought to anyone’s attention until now. On the same token, we hope the Senate President reconsiders as well.
Best,
ck
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