* This e-mail was received by a public schools official…
From: Christina Hibbert
Sent: Friday, August 12, 2016 2:33 PM
Subject: State Fair invite
Good afternoon,
My name is Christina Hibbert, and I am hoping you will stop by and see me at the Coors Light tent at the State Fair Wednesday, August 17. I have a VIP bag, which includes a T-shirt, beer tickets, can coozie, etc., specially for you!
I am the Government Affairs Outreach Coordinator for Illinois Policy. We are an independent research and education organization that generates public policy solutions aimed at promoting personal freedom and prosperity in Illinois. We would like to connect with you to learn about issues you face as a local official. Our goal is to target policies to help you flourish and better serve taxpayers.
Please RSVP by calling or texting me at xxx-xxx-xxxx to be added to the list of VIPs and include your T-shirt size. Your VIP bag will be ready for you when you arrive.
Should you have any questions, please do not hesitate to reach out. Thank you for your service. I look forward to hearing from you!
The Domestic Workers’ Bill of Rights, sponsored by State Senator Ira Silverstein (D-Chicago) to establish provisions for overtime, wages, days off and other protections for Illinois domestic workers was signed by the governor late Friday.
Domestic workers will no longer be exempt from the Minimum Wage Law, Illinois Human Rights Act, One Day Rest in Seven Act and Wages of Women and Minors Act. House Bill 1288 defines what constitutes domestic work and expands rights for this class of workers from which they are now exempt.
“I am pleased to see domestic workers gain the same rights and protections as all working people in Illinois,” said Senator Silverstein. “Domestic workers are striving to provide for their families and current law makes their struggle more difficult, and unfair, while they play an important role in Illinois’ economy.”
Domestic workers are defined in HB 1288 to include workers in homes performing house cleaning, caring for children, ill or older family members, laundry, cooking or other home tasks.
According to proponents who include the Sargent Shriver Center on Poverty Law, Women Employed, and labor and immigrant rights groups, 23% of domestic workers are paid below minimum wage and 58% of live-in workers are required to work during their scheduled time off.
“Their work is vital to families’ homes, but they are often exploited. They continue to work because they need the money and have no recourse,” said Wendy Pollack, founder and director of the Women’s Law and Policy Project at the Shriver Center.
The Domestic Workers Bill of Rights takes effect January 1, 2017.
One of the largest public employee pension systems in the state is questioning whether Elk Grove Village’s mayor and five of its trustees work enough hours to be eligible for pensions.
A three-page letter sent by the Illinois Municipal Retirement Fund’s general counsel to village officials asks for documentation showing elected village board members work at least 1,000 hours a year — the threshold to be eligible for a pension.
And if not, IMRF asks the board to adopt a resolution abolishing their participation in the pension fund.
The inquiry was prompted by a tip from the International Union of Operating Engineers Local 150, a prominent labor group that’s been critical of the Elk Grove Village board’s support of Gov. Bruce Rauner’s turnaround agenda.
Using public meeting minutes, Local 150 sent its analysis to IMRF of the estimated time board members spent in meetings in 2015, which showed no one spent more than 60 hours.
A print publication that’s financially supported by some of Illinois’ most deep-pocketed Republicans has made its way to the mailboxes of some Northwest suburban homeowners, including residents from Des Plaines, Park Ridge, Elk Grove Village, and Wheeling, three months before this November’s general election.
The North Cook News, a four- to- eight-page publication printed on newsprint, contains articles related to Illinois politics and advocates for or against certain candidates. For example, in its early July issue, it featured a front page photo of Democrat State Rep. Michelle Mussman, with the headline and text stating that she favors sending funds to Chicago schools rather than to suburban schools. Mussman serves portions of Elk Grove Village and Schaumburg. In early March, a front page of a newspaper published by the company featured a large copy of an official police report on domestic battery accusations against West suburban Democrat Chris Welch.
The North Cook News is one of at least 10 to 15 “newspapers” funded by the conservative political action committee Liberty Principles PAC headed by former GOP governor candidate and now radio talk show host Dan Proft. Liberty Principles has strong financial backing from Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner and real estate tycoon Sam Zell. The PAC became heavily involved in the 55th District state representative campaign in 2013 when Des Plaines resident Marty Moylan and Park Ridge Republican Mel Thillens faced off. Much of Liberty’s support came in the form of printing and distributing expensive campaign literature criticizing Moylan, the eventual winner and current incumbent.
Dan Gott, a Des Plaines resident and challenger to Moylan in this fall’s election, told the Journal & Topics Media Group this week that he has published many articles in the North Cook News in recent weeks. When asked whether he was invited to submit articles about his campaign to the publication Gott replied, “I’d rather not say. That’s personal.”
Emphasis added.
*** UPDATE *** From Dan Proft…
First, papers are neither funded by Rauner nor Zell.
Second, no candidates have been or will be invited to “submit” articles about their campaigns.
* While watching today’s press conference about Gov. Bruce Rauner’s veto of the bipartisan automatic voter registration bill, two things stuck out for me: 1) Nobody in the Rauner administration ever spoke up during the drafting, committee hearing and floor voting process before it passed both chambers with overwhelming bipartisan majorities; 2) The governor’s claims that the bill put the state in violation of federal law were not true. This is from Abe Scarr at Illinois PIRG…
Rich,
State agency voter registration is governed by the National Voter Registration Act (NVRA), commonly known as Motor Voter. There are many requirements outlined and they differ between agencies like the DMV and social services agencies.
The key requirements at the DMV are:
* individuals must be informed of the qualifications to register to vote
* individuals must be informed of the penalties for falsely stating they are eligible
* individuals must be given the opportunity to affirm their qualifications
* declining to opt in cannot result in any negative consequences for the individual in the underlying service transaction
Social service agencies have additional requirements:
* The question about wanting to register and affirm qualifications must be a yes/no question
* Individuals must get the same support from the agency in registering that they would in the underlying service transaction.
* Finally, individuals in the specific instance of updating their information at an agency must have the opportunity to decline to have their address updated. There is debate among NVRA experts if the opportunity to decline has to be at the agency or not.
SB250 meets all of these requirements. The Governor’s message that individuals must be given the opportunity to decline registration at the DMV is a misreading of the NVRA. That -is- a requirement at the social service agencies, and for those agencies, the bill was drafted to place the opt-out at the point of agency interaction. It is not a requirement of DMV transactions. In those, individuals must have to have the opportunity to attest, but they do not have to attest, nor do they have to have the opportunity to decline at that specif moment. Under SB250, individuals have an ongoing opportunity to opt out, but not at the point of DMV interaction.
For address updates at the DMV, our original intention with SB250 was the same as other DMV interactions - a back end opt out. We communicated in negotiations that we would be ok with providing the opportunity to decline address updates at the DMV, if the individual is presented at the time with their current registration status.
That request of the Governor’s office, like most of their requests, could have and would have been incorporated in the bill language had they engaged in April or May - but they did not. We offered to make them in a trailer bill. The only requests (2 of 7) we did not agree to were to push back the implementation date one year - from 1/1/18 to 1/1/19, and their request to make all DMV interactions an up-front opt out. On the implementation date, they site the State Board of Elections as needing more time to implement. However, the State Board signed off on that date and supported SB250. Further, i we made the other changes the Governor’s office wanted, there would actually be less for the State Board to implement. On the opt-out, we maintain that it would not accomplish the fundamental goal of the legislation, which is to change the default status of eligible voters from “only registered if they take affirmative action to register” to “registered unless they take affirmative action to not be registered.”
* And here’s more from Common Cause…
“Governor Rauner’s staff explained that a primary reason he did not sign the bill is because he wants to delay implementation until 2019, after the next gubernatorial election,” said Trevor Gervais, Lead Organizer of Common Cause Illinois. “Playing politics with something as important as voting rights is absolutely unacceptable.” The bill was drafted with input from all stakeholders, including county clerks, the State Board of Elections, and the Secretary of State’s office, who made it clear that there was no problem with the original implementation date of January 1, 2018.
* And a group called Just Democracy Illinois (the Better Government Association is a member) connected Rauner’s veto to the Illinois Policy Institute’s lawsuit we’ve discussed here and which has received almost zero coverage by the mainstream media…
“Between Governor Rauner’s veto of Automatic Voter Registration, and the pending lawsuit that seeks to stop Election Day Registration, Illinois is moving away from making the franchise more accessible, and moving toward the sort of tactics that have suppressed the vote in other states across the nation. Now is not the time for Illinois to move backward on voting rights.”
* People on the South and West sides often fear going to public parks because of all the shootings. In the Gold Coast, they hate their gelato. I am not making this up…
Gelato-gate is heating up.
Gold Coast residents who frequent Mariano Park, a picturesque little plaza at State and Rush streets, clamored for weeks for new park tenant Bow Truss Coffee to bring in the gelato that was promised them.
In mid-July, they got their wish with the addition of Black Dog Gelato, known for its unusual flavors and supplier to some of the city’s best restaurants.
But, these residents now say, it isn’t good enough for their tony neighborhood.
The complaints, voiced via e-mail to DNAinfo last week, cite everything from the texture of the gelato, to Bow Truss owner Phil Tadros’ inaction, to the appearance of the Black Dog stand, essentially a freezer case stationed under an awning next to the Bow Truss kiosk.
Brian Dryer, a Gold Coast resident for nearly 20 years, called the pink stand an “IKEA shack” with inadequate signage and “no smiles at counter it’s terrible.” […]
The park “needs to be updated end of story. We don’t deserve what is being offered right now as dessert,” said Judi Steinreich, who appears to be one of those leading the charge leveled at Bow Truss owner Phil Tadros.
In early summer, after the company formerly called Tribune Publishing had rejected two takeover offers from Gannett, two of its biggest investors found themselves in an escalating dispute. The investment firm Oaktree Capital Management was publicly questioning the motives of Michael W. Ferro Jr., an investor and the new chairman of the publishing company, in his decision to rebuff Gannett.
Mr. Ferro formulated his own pointed response: During a meeting in July at his estate in Lake Geneva, Wis., he suggested to top editors and executives that their journalists investigate Oaktree and Bruce Karsh, co-chairman and co-founder of the firm, according to two people with direct knowledge of the meeting.
No damaging article about Oaktree was published, but the episode provides a glimpse into the combative business style of a relatively unknown technology entrepreneur who has become one of the country’s most significant and unpredictable media moguls. Since taking a $44 million stake in Tribune Publishing in February, Mr. Ferro has installed himself as chairman, fired the chief executive and replaced him with a longtime associate, overhauled the senior executive ranks, and reshaped the company’s board so that a majority is aligned with him. […]
Mr. Ferro declined to be interviewed for this article. A spokesman for Mr. Ferro, Dennis Culloton, denied that Mr. Ferro suggested that Tronc’s papers should investigate Oaktree.
Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner says he was “disappointed” to learn about the departure of Sen. Matt Murphy after the Palatine Republican announced he was leaving office to join the private sector.
Murphy’s resignation marks the second high-profile legislative ally of Rauner’s to step down in recent weeks. Rep. Ron Sandack, of Downers Grove, resigned in July, after yanking down his social media accounts, saying several fraudulent ones were set up in his name, and declaring politics had gotten “too ugly.” Sandack reported the incident to Downers Grove police, who released a heavily redacted report.
The governor’s reaction to Murphy’s exit was decidedly different. While he refused to comment on Sandack, Rauner offered praise for Murphy.
“I was surprised by it, disappointed. I think he’s been a great legislator,” Rauner said Friday after cutting the ribbon to open the Illinois State Fair. “He will be missed, no question.”
“That said, we have strong advocates in the General Assembly for what we are recommending for reform,” the governor said.
Illinois Senate President John Cullerton, D-Chicago, said the governor is losing a key ally — a respected legislator and floor leader who “would make a lot of Democrats kind of cringe because he was very articulate.
“We didn’t agree with him, but you could tell he was able to come up with the kind of saying that you knew was going to be quoted. I think there was respect for that even though folks didn’t necessary agree with him. They respected his ability to make points.
“I’m sure that whomever they replace will be just as supportive of Gov. Rauner as Matt Murphy was,” Cullerton said. “But the problem is that maybe the governor doesn’t appreciate the experience Matt Murphy brings to the Legislature. And that’s going to be lost.
“That’s what I would have said if I was the governor and somebody from my party left, rather than: We’ll just be fine without him.”
To my colleagues, past and present, we know better than most that the job is hard. At times the weight of the responsibility that comes with it can be difficult to carry. But the truth is I have loved every second of serving with you and would do it all over again in a heartbeat. I have particularly enjoyed getting to know and befriend people from every corner of our state, from both chambers and parties. I wish more people outside of the legislative process could see how well we get along personally, even when we disagree vehemently on policy, and also how many legislators really do care about our state and our constituents.
Hope you’ve had a great weekend and are ready for Fair week.
I wanted to send you details about the advocacy efforts we are launching this week, along with the digital ads we’re running (below). The initial phase of the advocacy campaign consists of an extensive digital ad campaign in each of the legislative districts, reinforced with our door-to-door effort and direct mail through November. Additional legislators will be added to the advocacy efforts in the coming month. If you are not in a targeted district, hopefully you will not see the ad (except on CapFax J).
In the House districts, the campaign will focus on failure to curb government over-spending by passing the unbalanced Madigan budget and promoting higher taxes. In the Senate, the ads focus on the Democrat majority’s refusal to address the problem of ever-increasing property taxes that drain family budgets and dampen growth.
The accountability effort will initially include the following Illinois Senate & House members:
African-Americans represent sixty per cent of Baltimore residents old enough to drive legally but eighty-two per cent of those who are stopped by police. In Ferguson, where African-Americans are sixty-seven per cent of the populace, they represent eighty-five per cent of automotive and pedestrian stops. In Chicago, which has roughly equal black, white, and Hispanic populations, blacks and Hispanics are four times more likely to be stopped by police.
The facile response is to see this as a product of the disproportionate number of violent crimes committed by African-Americans. But the number of times that blacks are stopped does not hold up to any examination. In Baltimore, whites who were stopped were twice as likely as blacks to be carrying contraband. In Chicago, police found contraband on white drivers twice as often as on black or Hispanic drivers. In Ferguson, blacks were twenty-six per cent less likely than whites to be carrying illegal or controlled substances. The reasons are straightforward: police tended to stop whites based on some particular indicator of illegal behavior, whereas for people of color the simple fact of their appearance could be cause for a police encounter. For whites, suspicion is an opt-in circumstance. For blacks, it’s nearly impossible to opt out.
Alexes Harris is an associate professor of sociology at the University of Washington and the author of “A Pound of Flesh.” Published in June, the book analyzes the rise of monetary sanctions in the criminal-justice system. Harris argues that jurisdictions have increasingly relied on levying fines for minor infractions—broken tail-lights, vagrancy, traffic violations—as a way to generate municipal revenue. For instance, a Department of Justice investigation revealed that, in 2013, police in Ferguson, Missouri, issued arrest warrants for nine thousand people, almost all for municipal-code violations such as failing to pay a fine or missing court appearances. Doing so allowed the city to collect $2.4 million in fines and fees, the second highest source of income for the city, behind taxes. […]
Harris says that economic forces have created one of the underlying tensions of modern-day policing: impoverished communities have become deeply distrustful of police, in part because they have come to expect an interaction with an officer to result in some sort of monetary punishment. “When you know that you’re constantly being surveilled for fines and fees, and you’re constantly going to be stopped, police are not going to be seen as legitimate anymore,” Harris says. “So it increases the tension between police and communities of color.” […]
At the core of the issue is a criminal-justice system that has exploded in size in the past two and a half decades. From 1993 to 2012, annual criminal-justice expenditures rose seventy-four per cent, from $157 billion to $273 billion, according to Council of Economic Advisers. But the report noted that, rather than raise taxes to cover the costs, “state and local governments . . . have increasingly turned to monetary sanctions as a source of additional revenue.” The burden of payment now falls on offenders, and on the poorest of the poor. In a report published in 2010 by the Brennan Center for Justice, researchers analyzed criminal-justice debt in the fifteen states with the highest prison populations, and reported that eighty to ninety per cent of those charged with criminal offenses “qualify for indigent defense.” As a result, some people can never pay the fines. Another eye-opening study, commissioned by the University of Alabama at Birmingham and published in 2014, interviewed nine hundred and forty-three people who were under supervision for a felony. They were asked if they had ever committed a crime specifically to pay off court fines. Statewide, seventeen per cent of the respondents said they had committed a crime—mostly selling drugs—to pay off fines. In counties where the question was asked by an independent interviewer, rather than a probation or corrections officer, the percentage was even higher: In Marshall County, Alabama, forty-three per cent of the respondents admitted to committing crimes to pay off official debts. […]
“If police interactions with people are limited to situations where someone’s safety is at risk, there’s going to be X number of confrontations,” Karakatsanis said. “But if you multiply that to giving the police this whole other duty of finding people who owe debt and have the police interact with everyone who owes money, you’re astronomically increasing the number of police-civilian interactions. Even if the percentage of those interactions that are violent stays the same, you’re going to see a lot more violence.”
* Sen. Mark Kirk has burned himself twice by announcing he’d be writing in a presidential preference rather than voting for anyone who is actually on the ballot. And now he’s refusing to talk about the subject at all…
Kirk yanked his endorsement of GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump in June, saying he would write in former CIA director and retired U.S. Army Gen. David Petraeus, who pleaded guilty to mishandling classified information. Last month, Kirk said he was switching his write-in vote to Colin Powell, saying the former secretary of state and retired Army general was “much more experienced at the national level.”
But last week, in denouncing Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton’s support of the multinational deal aimed at curbing Iran’s ability to develop nuclear weapons, Kirk told CNN he “can’t support someone who is for the Iran agreement.” Powell, however, supported the Iran agreement.
“Don’t really need to discuss my write-in choice because it’s not that important, it’s not going to swing the election at all,” Kirk said. […]
“My job is to make sure that if it’s Clinton or it’s Trump that we have the strongest representative possible in the Senate,” Kirk said.
Whenever candidates refuse to talk about something they can always be assured of getting more reporter questions about that very topic.
And it was a silly move in the first place because, as Kirk himself was eventually forced to admit, write-in votes aren’t counted in Illinois for people who are not officially registered as candidates.
*** UPDATE *** The Duckworth campaign passed along the exchange…
REPORTER: Senator, you had mentioned that you would not support anybody who supported the Iran deal and Colin Powell, who is your write-in choice, did support the Iran deal.
KIRK: My job is to make sure, if it’s Clinton or it’s Trump, that we have the strongest representative possible that’s in the Senate.
REPORTER: So it’s more playing a defensive posture about whoever is President is what it comes down to?
KIRK: And we’re sending someone who is the best representative for the state of Illinois. And, instead of Tammy Duckworth, who really represents Chicagoland. For me, cause I was born downstate, and will travel downstate, so the rest of the state needs a Senator too.
REPORTER: So do you have a new write-in choice for President?
KIRK: I think we will, uh, we’ll just, uh, make sure, uh, go with whoever’s best. Don’t really need to discuss my write-in choice because it’s not that important. It’s not going to swing the election at all.
It passed overwhelmingly in the Illinois General Assembly, but Governor Bruce Rauner says the measure allowing you to register to vote through your drivers license isn’t the way to do that.
Rauner vetoed the measure, and said Sunday at the Illinois State Fair the Automatic Voter Registration measure violates federal law, even though the intent is good.
“Right now, the law is if someone interacts with a department and they say they’d like to register, then the process begins,” says Rauner. “This just takes that away and automatically registers people. Unfortunately, it can create a problem because not everyone in Illinois who interacts with state government and receives some government benefits is a citizen.” […]
“I think there are six or seven changes that we would recommend to make it comply with federal election law, and also comply with good practice, so we can encourage voters — everyone who wants to vote and is entitled to vote — to be able to vote very easily,” says Rauner. “But, try to make sure to try to eliminate the risk of inadvertent voter fraud, or inappropriate voting.”
Our democracy depends upon free and fair elections and is strengthened by increased voter participation. I strongly support efforts to simplify the voter registration process and remove barriers to voting, while still protecting the integrity of our election system.
Earlier this year, I signed Senate Bill 1529, a bipartisan bill to modernize our election system and expand voting opportunities. The bill allows the use of digital voter signatures; expands online voter registration; enables the State to fund its participation in national Electronic Registration Information Center; extends the ability of military voters and others to vote by mail through Election Day; and enhances criminal penalties for fraudulent voting. I look forward to continuing to work with the General Assembly to modernize our election system and promote voter participation.
Senate Bill 250 would transition Illinois to an automatic voter registration system – one of the first states in the nation. I thank the sponsors and proponents for their commitment to increasing voter participation. Today I return the bill, however, to provide the sponsors and proponents with the opportunity to make some important corrections to protect the integrity of our election system and to comply with federal law. We must also ensure that the State Board of Elections is provided with adequate time and resources to implement the bill’s provisions.
Background
Current law allows citizens to complete a voter registration application at the Secretary of State’s Driver Services Department. The Secretary of State transmits the application to the appropriate local election authority to be processed. This process is subject to both the Illinois Election Code and federal law, including the National Voter Registration Act.
Public Act 98-1171, enacted last year, expanded this system to allow individuals to register to vote whenever they conduct business or interact with the Department of Human Services, Department of Healthcare and Family Services, Department of Employment Security, and Department on Aging. An agency employee notifies the individual whether he or she is registered to vote and offers the individual an opportunity to register or to update his or her registered address. The agency transmits the registration or updated information to the State Board of Elections, which in turn transmits the information to the local election authority. The public act requires the State Board to complete its implementation by July 1, 2016, but that work has not yet been completed.
Senate Bill 250 would change this system by requiring automatic registration. The bill would require each agency to automatically process a voter registration for each individual about whom it has information, whether or not the individual intends to register. The individual is later informed about the automatic registration and given an opportunity to opt-out by contacting the appropriate election authority.
The proponents of the bill intend to remove barriers to voting, which I applaud. But in the haste of amending and passing the bill on the last day of the spring legislative session, they concede that the bill does not plainly and clearly describe the process they envision. For the past several weeks, my Administration has been working closely with the proponents and lawyers for all four legislative caucuses to address the concerns described below. I remain hopeful that these concerns can be addressed and we can together enact a bill that achieves our shared goals.
Voter Integrity and Compliance with Federal Law
We must ensure the integrity of our election system and that it complies with federal law. The National Voter Registration Act imposes certain conditions on voter registrations, including that the applicant must be informed of the voter eligibility requirements, must attest that he or she meets qualifications to vote, and must sign the voter registration application. Federal law provides the individual with an opportunity to decline to register to vote or to transfer his or her information for voter registration purposes without adversely affecting other government services.
Proponents contend that individuals will be informed of the qualifications to vote; that the agencies will check their own records to confirm an individual is a citizen and otherwise eligible to vote before processing the registration; and that the agencies will indicate to the State Board of Elections which identification documents were checked. But that is not how the bill is drafted.
Senate Bill 250 does not require an applicant to attest to meeting the qualifications to vote or to sign the application, as required by federal law. The bill directs the Secretary of State’s Drivers Services Department to automatically register the individual “regardless of whether or not the individual attested to his or her eligibility to register to vote.” The bill relies on the State Board of Elections to screen out individuals who are not eligible to vote, even though the State Board may not have access to that information. In fact, some of the agencies in possession of citizenship-related information are prohibited by federal law from sharing that information with the State Board.
The consequences could be injurious to our election system. We know that non-citizens have registered to vote in Illinois after obtaining a driver’s license and voted in recent elections. Among other documented cases, a citizen of Kenya registered to vote and voted in the 2004 election, and citizens of Peru and the Philippines registered to vote and voted in the 2006 election. Each of these cases of voter fraud was caught by immigration officials, not the State of Illinois.
The bill should be conformed to the system that the proponents describe. Agencies with access to citizenship information should use that information to verify a person’s eligibility before processing the voter registration. That responsibility should not – and legally cannot – fall to the State Board of Elections, as the bill currently provides.
Reliability of State Agency Information
Senate Bill 250 intends for agencies to automatically update voter information based on the agency’s records. This assumes that agency records are accurate, consistent, and reliable.
While we are working to update and consolidate State information systems through the new Department of Innovation and Technology, the State does not have a single dataset for each individual that can be reliably used to verify current information. In fact, the agencies charged with updating voter records could have different name or address information about the same individual, due to no fault of the individual. Residency for unemployment benefits or human services may be different than residency for election purposes. An agency should not automatically change an address without providing the individual with an opportunity to verify that the address is accurate for the purposes of voter registration.
Senate Bill 250 tacitly acknowledges this problem. The bill provides that if a voter’s registered address is mistakenly changed, and the voter appears at the voter precinct for his prior registered address, the voter should have the opportunity to vote at that prior address with a regular (as opposed to provisional) ballot. The bill also provides that the voter should not be disqualified from voting “due to an error relating to an update of registration.” The law should avoid errors in the first place.
Implementation Timeline and Resources
The State Board of Elections has said that the timeline for implementation is aggressive and, to date, no funding has been provided to carry out the work needed. Despite diligent efforts, the State Board is already past-due in implementing the changes required by Public Act 98-1171, which underlie the changes that would be required by Senate Bill 250. We should provide the State Board with the time and resources needed to properly complete the implementation.
Recommended Changes
Senate Bill 250 seeks a worthy but ambitious goal. After the State Board of Elections, Secretary of State, and others raised concerns about how it would be implemented, the sponsors and proponents introduced a series of amendments at the end of May. There remain some unaddressed problems, but for which there are workable solutions. Specifically:
· The Secretary of State should only transit voter registrations for which it has been able to verify citizenship and should indicate which identification documents were checked. As part of REAL ID compliance, this information will be available to the Secretary of State for any person seeking to obtain a REAL ID-compliant license. Proponents indicated that the bill intends for this screening; the bill should make this a clear requirement.
· Other State agencies, other than the Secretary of State, should check voter registrations against their available citizenship records when possible before submitting those registrations to the State Board of Elections. Each of the four State agencies identified in the bill has access to that information. If the agency does not have citizenship-related information for a particular person, the applicant must attest by signature to meeting the qualifications to vote.
· The Secretary of State and each other State agency should notify a potential applicant whether or not he or she is currently registered to vote, based on information provided from a State master voter file, and if so at what address. If the person is already registered to vote at another address, the agency should confirm that the person desires to update his or her address, before automatically processing an errant address change. If the person is not registered to vote, and requests not to be, the State agency should honor that request.
· The bill should define “reliable State government source”, which is a source of information that may be used for completing a voter registration. The bill should set out a process for how other information sources are added to the list of reliable sources, as currently contemplated by the bill.
· The bill should set out a realistic implementation deadline, and we should provide the State Board of Elections and other implementing agencies with adequate resources. We must also recognize that county clerks and other local election authorities will incur costs in implementing this bill. The bill allows e-mail notices to be used for certain purposes; we should examine expanding e-mail use to reduce costs for the State and local election authorities.
Proponents have expressed willingness to make some of these changes, while others remain in discussion. I thank the proponents, sponsors, and legislative staff for continuing to work with my Administration to address these concerns. I hope we can complete this work and pass a bipartisan election bill in the near future.
Until then, I cannot approve Senate Bill 250 in its current form. Therefore, pursuant to Section 9(b) of Article IV of the Illinois Constitution of 1970, I hereby return Senate Bill 250 entitled “AN ACT concerning elections”, with the foregoing objections, vetoed in its entirety.
Sincerely,
The House Republican Organization, the campaign arm of the House GOP, is spending $301,511 [this week] while the Republican State Senate Campaign Committee is spending $189,795 [this week], the report shows.
Among the candidates benefiting is Rod Drobinski, of Wauconda, who will be airing more than 2,200 ads costing nearly $115,000. Drobinski is challenging Democratic Rep. Sam Yingling, of Grayslake. Yingling’s campaign is spending $86,405 to run more than 3,000 ads of its own.
Among Senate contests, Republican challenger Seth Lewis, of Bartlett, is benefiting from nearly $80,000 worth of ads in taking on Democratic state Sen. Tom Cullerton, of Villa Park.
Also getting nearly $80,000 worth of help is Republican Mike Amrozowicz, of Gurnee. He’s challenging Democratic state Sen. Melinda Bush, of Grayslake.
* And keep in mind that the above total doesn’t include the big network TV buys in southern Illinois and Chicago…
Republicans dominated the top 10 transfers of [last] week, with money flowing out of Governor Rauner’s Candidate Committee, the House Republican Organization, and the Illinois Republican Party. Governor Rauner’s Candidate Committee transferred $5 million to the Illinois Republican Party last Thursday, which then transferred $2.3 million to the House Republican Organization and over $650,000 to the Republican State Senate Campaign Committee. The House Republican Organization was active with transfers in the Chicago area, giving over $400,000 to 20th District House candidate Michael McAuliffe (R-Chicago), $85,000 to 62nd District House candidate Rod Drobinski (R-Wauconda) and $83,000 to 45th District House candidate Rep. Christine Winger (R-Wood Dale).
Rep. McAuliffe, who won his past two elections with over 60% of the vote, ran tv ads for the second straight week. According to the FCC, he spent over $70,000 for 82 spots on ABC, FOX, and NBC that started airing on Monday and will continue through Sunday. Rod Drobinski is challenging incumbent Rep. Sam Yingling (D-Grayslake), after suffering a defeat by Yingling in 2014 by a margin of 4% of the vote.
An organization controlled by Gov. Bruce Rauner has spent a million dollars on a new television ad promoting legislative term limits in a little over a week. And that’s just for starters.
Turnaround Illinois Inc. is one of those “dark money” non-profit groups that doesn’t have to disclose its donors. It has so far booked $1,015,084 in broadcast, satellite and cable TV ads. The group purchased $684,455 in broadcast TV ads scheduled to run Aug. 5 through Aug. 14. The biggest chunk of the money, $344,850, was spent on very expensive Chicago broadcast TV spots. All the ad buys are expected to be renewed.
Gov. Rauner’s TV ad features several “real people” talking about the need for term limits. Rauner has also set up a website where folks can “sign” an electronic petition supporting the idea. One of the people appearing in the ad exhorts watchers to help them get “a million signatures.”
Before the ads appeared, Rauner spent several days touring the state demanding that House and Senate Democrats come back after the election and pass a term-limits constitutional amendment, which wouldn’t be voted on by the public until 2018. Rauner himself appears at the end of the ad to say, “Let’s all sign the term limits petition. Go to FixIllinois.com.”
Yes, the issue is pretty much solely political and more than a bit phony. Even if the legislature passed a term-limits proposal this November (and it won’t), the limits wouldn’t actually get in front of voters for two more years and then wouldn’t start limiting terms for another 10 years. By that time, House Speaker Madigan will be 86 years old, and he could still run for a state Senate seat. But, hey, the House Democrats are notorious for using federal issues like Medicare and Social Security in state legislative races, so, whatever. It is what it is.
Rauner’s group also paid $130,820 for St. Louis broadcast television, even though most of those viewers live in Missouri. Illinois candidates often skip St. Louis broadcast entirely or wait until late in the game to air any ads because they aren’t very cost-efficient. You always know somebody has big bucks to throw around when they go up on St. Louis TV, and it’s practically unheard-of in early August.
The Rauner organization also plunked down $32K for broadcast ads in the Champaign-Springfield-Decatur market; $73K in the Quad Cities (where Democratic Rep. Mike Smiddy is attempting to hold onto his seat), $57K in the already crowded (with state legislative ads) Paducah, Ky., market, $21K in Quincy and $25K in Peoria.
In addition, Rauner has dumped $207,000 on satellite TV ads through Aug. 25 and appears to have added to his initial $21,989 cable TV buy with $101,640 more through Aug. 14. The cable buy locations line up with suburban and Downstate Democratic legislative districts that Rauner’s political organization has targeted.
So, what is going on here? First and foremost, Rauner needs to improve his own polling numbers, both for his 2018 re-election and, more immediately, so his involvement can be of some use to his Republican legislative candidates this fall.
A recent poll conducted for Democratic U.S. Rep. Tammy Duckworth’s U.S. Senate campaign found that Rauner’s job approval rating was just 37 percent, with a disapproval of 55 percent. “He’s been sitting around there for all of 2016, so opinions are hardening,” said a source familiar with the poll’s findings.
Rauner’s people counter with their own poll numbers, which they say have Rauner’s approve/disapprove rating at 44-49.
Either way, Rauner has to start moving numbers his direction to have a positive impact on this year’s election. The term-limits issue polls off the charts in this state, so firmly attaching himself to the proposal in an unprecedented and sustained advertising buy will likely help. 78 percent supported the idea in a February poll taken by the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute.
The information-gathering aspect of this term-limits push also can’t be ignored. Rauner has reportedly put his trusted lieutenant Chip Englander in charge of his data project. All his legislative races are gathering lots of data and it’s being pooled in one spot. Building on Rauner’s 2014 race, and adding this year’s data (including from those who sign up online for the term-limits pledge) the Illinois GOP could be “among the nation’s elite in data” for 2018, predicted a Republican insider. “Maybe the top.”
And regardless of which poll is accurate, he’s gonna need every bit of help he can muster, both this year and during the next cycle.
Sometimes it seems like everything our state government tries to do turns out wrong.
It created and expanded a pension system for public employees that it has almost never properly funded. It raised income taxes and was finally getting its fiscal house in some semblance of order only to let much of that tax hike expire. The government plunged into an 18-month budgetary stalemate with no end in sight. It dawdled so long on creating fracking regulations that it missed the oil boom experienced by other states.
I could go on forever, but I’m sure you have your own examples.
Friday, Aug 12, 2016 - Posted by Advertising Department
[The following is a paid advertisement.]
A bipartisan group of State Senators asked the Supreme Court to uphold the Independent Map Amendment:
“The court should uphold the democratic rights of Illinoisans and allow a vote this November on whether a new redistricting system should become part of our state Constitution.”
[Chicago Tribune, 8/2/2016]
Editorial boards weighed in:
“If district lines are drawn so that representatives actually have to serve a constituency rather than a carefully selected clientele, government should become more responsive.”
[The Southern Illinoisan, 8/1/2016]
“Redistricting reform is also, we believe, entirely constitutional… It relies, not on a self-interested interpretation of that 1970 document by those trying to hold onto power, but where it should and must rest: On the intent of delegates who wrote a citizens initiative provision designed to ensure that the power to elect our legislature lies, not with those legislators, but the people.”
[The Dispatch and The Rock Island Argus, 8/1/2016]
“We urge justices to put aside their political leanings, carefully study the merits of Independent Map Amendment, and give it their approval. We urge justices to overturn Judge Larsen’s ruling… which hangs upon technicalities that common sense would find unconvincing.”
[Sauk Valley Media, 7/28/2016]
* Sen. Matt Murphy (R-Palatine) is submitting his resignation tomorrow. Murph, a Deputy Republican Leader who focuses on appropriatiions, will be the senior government relations director for Mac Strategies Group. He’ll be leading the firm’s legislative and regulatory practice
The PR firm was founded by Ryan McLaughlin in 2008. Tom Bowen, a Democratic political strategist, is a partner in the firm and former IRMA honcho Dave Vite is a counselor.
*** UPDATE *** Murphy said this morning that he now plans to formally submit his resignation letter on Monday (he’d told me earlier in the week he was planning to file his letter on Friday). The resignation will be effective on September 15th.
* Tomorrow is the one-year anniversary of my surgery, so I’m going in for my annual checkup this afternoon.
My four brothers, most of their kids, my parents and at least one of my aunts are all coming to town tomorrow and Saturday for a reunion. Today is my dad’s birthday and tomorrow is my daughter’s birthday, so it’s gonna be a party.
Tomorrow at noon I’ll be participating in the 2016 “Celebrity Beef Showmanship” dealio at the Illinois State Fair’s Junior Livestock Building. If you can make it, I’d love to see you there.
Anyway, I’m signing off until Monday, campers.
* Barton will be in charge the rest of the afternoon, and then I’ll be shutting it down for the weekend when I get home. I told Barton not to worry about posting anything unless something significant breaks. And, please, don’t make his life needlessly complicated with silly comment-section arguments. Thanks!
U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin laughed off questions Thursday about whether he would run for governor of Illinois in 2018. But he also didn’t rule out the possibility.
“I’m not even speculating on that,” Durbin said after a ribbon-cutting Thursday for a new command center at Scott Air Force Base. “I have a great job.” […]
At a stop later Thursday in Granite City, Durbin told a reporter: “It’s interesting to me, the speculation. I have not done any polling on this, and it seems to be the most interesting political topic for some.”
But he added: “I’ve got a lot more I can do for the state of Illinois as a senator. I’m honored to have this job. I’m not aspiring to any other position.”
* George Will makes some good points in his latest column about Illinois, so you should definitely read the whole thing. However, let’s look at the quotes he included from Gov. Bruce Rauner…
Illinois’ government, says Rauner, “is run for the benefit of its employees.” Increasingly, it is run for their benefit when they retire. Pension promises, though unfunded by at least $113 billion, are one reason some government departments are not digitized at all. […]
The government is so thoroughly unionized (22 unions represent almost all government employees), that “I can’t,” Rauner says, “turn on a light switch without permission.” He exaggerates, somewhat, but the process of trying to fire someone is a career, not an option. […]
Rauner let the tax lapse. To their demand for more tax increases, he sweetly says: Let’s talk. About pension reforms and tort reform. And about exempting local governments from paying on construction projects the “prevailing wage” — which Rauner says is, effectively, “whatever unions tell them they want it to be,” and which raises costs 30 to 40 percent.
Wow, that was some decision by the federal court in the Rod Blagojevich corruption case, wasn’t it?
No, not the one where U.S. Judge James Zagel resentenced a weeping Blagojevich to 14 years in prison for his criminal convictions. The other one, where the federal appeals court said evidence in a civil racketeering lawsuit demonstrated that “Blagojevich’s regular way of conducting business involved bribery.”
Blago was resentenced Tuesday. The appeals court ruled a week earlier in a spin-off case. It was a reprise of the Blagojevich corruption scandal, but in a different forum (civil court) with different actors (pay-for-play personnel looking to leverage official government action into coin of the realm).
This story is one many corruption watchers are not familiar with unless they burrowed deep into the fetid and festering sewer of official Illinois corruption.
“Hillary wants to abolish — essentially abolish the Second Amendment. By the way, if she gets to pick, if she gets to pick her judges, nothing you can do, folks. Although the Second Amendment people, maybe there is, I don’t know,” Trump said.
He added: “But I tell you what, that will be a horrible day, if Hillary gets to put her judges in, right now we’re tied.”
* Congressman Bob Dold has refused to endorse Trump and he had this to say to CBS 2…
“Obviously that’s asking people to incite violence,” said U.S. Rep. Robert Dold. “Obviously, it is something that’s really dangerous and can’t be tolerated.”
* From his opponent’s campaign…
Schneider for Congress campaign manager Magen Ryan today released the following statement:
“Bob Dold let Donald Trump’s dangerous incitement of violence sit for a full day, only commenting timidly after being forced to respond by media questioning. That’s not leadership – it’s cowardice. Dold should have immediately stood up and denounced the nominee of his party’s incendiary rhetoric at the start.”
“When you’re running for president, you have to be very careful about what you say. He’s not careful enough. We’ve all seen these gaffes that make him not prepared for the big job.”
* From the Democratic Party of Illinois…
Kirk on Kirk’s Gaffes:
“Levine asked Kirk about a series of controversial statements he has made in recent memory. That includes a reference last year to Chicago’s South Side, when he referred to an unmarried colleague as a ‘bro with no ho.’
‘When you’re in a race like I’m in, everything is taken the wrong way,’ Kirk says.” [CBS Chicago, 7/21/16]
Confused about the difference, Senator? Maybe you should visit www.TrumporKirk.com to get a refresher.
“We do not know if Mayor (Rahm) Emanuel can stand another teachers’ strike, especially at a time when confidence in his leadership is at an all-time low and the city is in an uproar over another police shooting of another unarmed African-American youth,” she said. “Do not force our hand.”
That’s some seriously over the top hardball right there.
“I want the teachers to be part of the solution. … I believe we can strengthen our classrooms and strengthen our teachers’ pensions,” Emanuel said.
“Chicago taxpayers have stepped up to be part of the solution. The State of Illinois, for the first time, has stepped up to be part of the solution. The [CPS] central bureaucracy, in the sense of the fat, has stepped up to be part of the solution. And I think the teachers should be part of the solution in not only stabilizing their finances, but strengthening our classrooms.”
Emanuel pointed to test results that show CPS fourth-graders “lead the nation” in reading gains while eight-graders are doing in the same in math. He also pointed to a high school graduation rate that, he claimed, is “climbing at a higher rate” than the rest of the country.
“I believe the public knows that. They are willing to step up to be part of the solution … as it comes to stabilizing the teachers’ pension. The state has been an issue for all of us for 70 years [by treating] teachers and taxpayers in Chicago differently than they treat Downstate. We’ve now resolved that issue. But teachers — as it relates to securing their own pensions dating to a decision Mayor [Harold] Washington made for one year — need to be part of it,” he said.
On Thursday, Pastors Protecting Youth (PPY), an association of Illinois pastors, filed a Federal lawsuit against the State of Illinois in regards to the Youth Mental Health Protection Act, the state’s newly enacted ban on sexual identity counseling for minors. The suit maintains that the ban unconstitutionally restricts a young person’s right to make personal choices regarding his or her own choice of sexual identity, as well as the pastors’ right to free speech and the exercise of religion.
The Act, which went into effect January 1, 2016, bans any licensed counselor from helping a young person who is seeking to overcome unwanted same-sex attractions. The Act further states that any “person or entity” in “any trade or commerce” who offers sexual identity counseling in a manner that portrays homosexuality as a disorder or illness, is guilty of consumer fraud. PPY is seeking a Declaratory Judgment from the court stating that the law should not apply to pastoral counseling which informs counselees that homosexuality conduct is a sin and disorder from God’s plan for humanity.
PPY’s attorney John W. Mauck of Mauck & Baker, LLC, says, “We are most concerned about young people who are seeking the right to choose their own identity. This is an essential human right. However, this law undermines the dignity and integrity of those who choose a different path for their lives than politicians and activists prefer. Each person should be free to receive Biblical and spiritual counseling from the pastor of their choice to help them orient their sexuality.”
Pastor Steven Stultz of Nu-Church Apostolic Ministries of East Garfield says, “In 1 Corinthians 6:9, the Apostle Paul writes to those who had overcome many sins including homosexuality, stating, ‘such were some of you’ but you were changed through God’s healing. I have personally witnessed many people change their sexual orientation through counseling and know it is possible. The government is interfering into someone’s private decisions. This ban on counseling creates fear in the people most in need of comfort and support.”
I’ve asked for a copy of the lawsuit, but have yet to hear back from the lawyers.
The Youth Mental Health Protection Act, which was sponsored in the House by state Rep. Kelly Cassidy and in the Senate by state Sen. Daniel Biss, was signed into law by Gov. Bruce Rauner in Aug. 2015. The law forbids mental health providers from engaging in therapeutic practices aimed at changing the sexual orientation of a minor. […]
“Fundamentally, this isn’t surprising,” said Cassidy. “In every state where we’ve had this kind of law, they’ve challenged it, and every time, they’ve lost. So we’re ready.”
Numerous psychiatric and medical professional associations have said conversion therapy doesn’t work, and can lead to further psychological damage to a patient. An American Psychiatric Association position statement said, “Psychotherapeutic modalities to convert or ‘repair’ homosexuality are based on developmental theories whose scientific validity is questionable.
Furthermore, anecdotal reports of ‘cures’ are counterbalanced by anecdotal claims of psychological harm. In the last four decades, ‘reparative’ therapists have not produced any rigorous scientific research to substantiate their claims of cure. Until there is such research available, [the American Psychiatric Association] recommends that ethical practitioners refrain from attempts to change individuals’ sexual orientation, keeping in mind the medical dictum to first, do no harm.”
This is weak sauce. As was yesterday. She’s for and has been for comprehensive immigration reform, which includes enhanced border security measures, as well as a path to citizenship. I didn’t make a stink about this yesterday, but in 2006, she supported a path to citizenship, as well, which is more than you can say for Kirk. He opposes the DREAM Act, for [crying out loud].
*** UPDATE 1 *** Kirk campaign…
Not accurate. The DREAM Act was incorporated into the 2013 bipartisan immigration reform bill supported by Kirk. Below is a clip from Progress Illinois citing that and it includes the quote below from Cong. Bill Foster praising the DREAM act provisions.
I am especially pleased to see that this plan includes an expedited path to citizenship for DREAMers and access to federal student aid, because we shouldn’t be pushing away talented young students from the only home they have ever known. We should give them a chance to succeed.
*** UPDATE 2 *** From DPI…
Hey Rich,
Hope you’re feeling better from your fall. I just read the update from the Kirk campaign in your Cap Fax post and thought it was important to note that Kirk voted against the DREAM Act in December, 2010 when it had a real chance of passing.
It was also already in the bill when Kirk voted with 14 other hardliners to filibuster comprehensive immigration reform in 2013 — so if we’re being generous, he voted against it several times before voting for it.
More below:
Kirk Voted Against The Dream Act [Chicago Daily Herald, 12/18/10]
Kirk Did Not Support Bill That Would Grant Path To Citizenship For Dreamers Who Had Come To Country As Children. “While Mr. Kirk is a moderate Republican-he supported last week’s failed attempt in the Senate to pass gun control legislation and recently became one of a few Republicans to support gay marriage-he has yet to say whether he’ll vote for immigration reform. […] In the past Mr. Kirk has been considered a hard-liner on the issue. Rep. Luis Gutierrez, D-Chicago, one of the leading congressional advocates of reform, said during the 2010 Senate race that ‘I do not see much difference between (Mr. Kirk’s) views and those of the most xenophobic opponents of reform.’ For example, the senator hasn’t supported citizenship for undocumented immigrants who came to this country as children, as outlined in the so-called Dream Act sponsored by Mr. Durbin. The Senate bill introduced last week beefs up border protection and provides a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants after a 13-year wait, payment of penalties and other requirements.” [Crain’s Chicago Business, 4/22/13]
Kirk Voted To Filibuster Comprehensive Immigration Reform In 2013, siding with conservative hardliners. It was only after a significant amount of criticism in Illinois for “inexplicably” siding “with the most conservative hardliners” that he switched positions and voted for the bill. [CQ, 6/11/13, S.744, Vote 146, 6/11/13] [Chicago Sun-Times, Lynn Sweet, 6/14/13], [Joliet Herald News, Editorial, 6/13/13]
Several U.S. states studied by S&P Global Ratings are ill-equipped to deal with an economic recession, hampered by the slow rebound in U.S. economic growth after the damage wrought by the Great Recession.
Fiscal imbalances, slower state tax revenue growth and increased spending on social services have contributed to a challenging economic landscape, as real GDP has only increased at 2.1 percent per year since 2009, S&P said in a report issued on Tuesday. […]
To determine states’ fiscal capacity to withstand the first year of a hypothetical recession, S&P sampled 10 states, the report said. The study found that a collective revenue shortfall would eclipse the states’ combined budget reserves by $5.4 billion.
Of the 10 states studied, several have budget reserves that equal less than half of “potential revenue underperformance” in the first year of a moderate-intensity recession. These include Illinois, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Connecticut.
Already the lowest rated of the 50 states, Illinois’ revenue and expenditure volatility is moderate relative to other states in our sample; however, the state’s weakened fiscal position, limited financial flexibility, and political gridlock leave it susceptible to the most severe fiscal stress in the event of a recession. Despite seven years of a national economic expansion, Illinois is still operating at a significant structural imbalance and continues to contend with a large and growing backlog of payables. Decision making has been severely hampered by top leadership’s political intransigence and deeply polarized views on how to address the state’s current structural imbalance. It nonetheless adds to existing fiscal pressures at a time when the state is at risk of approaching service level insolvency, which could more fundamentally jeopardize its creditworthiness.
For fiscal 2016, we estimate the state’s structural imbalance was over $4 billion. In the absence of a fully enacted budget the state operated under a de-facto budget that led to unchecked spending based on continuing appropriations, consent decrees, judicial ruling, and appropriations enacted. In addition to its lingering structural budget gap, which opened up following the expiration of the temporary tax increases on Dec. 31, 2014, the state has a large and growing backlog of unpaid bills. We expect the bill backlog to range between $9 billion and $10 billion, close to one-third of the expenditures at 2016 fiscal year-end. The recently agreed upon stopgap budget depletes the remaining $275 million left in its reserves.
In our simulation, the state’s three largest sources of revenue–income, corporate and sales taxes–would experience moderate declines in the first year of a recession. We estimate that these general tax revenues would decline 3.4% from the prior fiscal year. Based on the governor’s fiscal 2017 estimated revenues, and assuming no changes to the tax structure, these revenues would decline by $1.29 billion, or 5.5% from the estimate, adding to the state’s already sizeable structural misalignment. On the expenditure side, a recession would place additional pressure on an already Illinois overstrained social support network. Unemployment, already well above the national average, would increase further, especially if issues such as Brexit negatively affects large employers in the state, such as Caterpillar, which has significant operations in the United Kingdom. Falling incomes and rising unemployment would correspond with rising Medicaid caseloads and translate into a $282 million, or 2%, increase on the state’s projected Medicaid spending.
Faced with falling revenues and rising expenditures, the state would be left with very few options. Typically, states would rely on at least some portion of their reserves to either delay or mitigate the blow of necessary revenue raising and austerity measures. In the absence of reserves, Illinois would have to either raise revenues or reduce expenditures, or both. Given the current structural imbalance, tax increases or spending reductions would have to be more draconian to cover the current budget gap plus the newly opened recessionary one. The tax rate decline in 2015 suggests there is some capacity to increase revenues, although taxpayer tolerance for increases might be less when including increases imposed at the local level; say, Chicago, for example. Reducing expenditures would also prove challenging given its high and rising level of fixed costs, including debt and pension expenses, especially in absence of a budget. Reductions to education, in addition to likely facing political resistance, would place increased pressure on entities that are already struggling, such as Chicago public schools and the state’s community colleges. As fiscal 2016 demonstrated, in the absence of a budget, most of the state’s spending will likely continue unchecked based on continuing appropriations, consent decrees, and court-ordered spending.
Even with some room to make adjustments, it is unlikely that Illinois would react to a recession in a timely manner. The state has historically been unable to make difficult and politically unpopular revenue and expenditure decisions necessary to restore balance to its operations and has allowed deficits and payables to accumulate. Illinois is required to adopt a balanced budget, but is not required to maintain balance throughout the year. In our view, this ability to end the year out of balance and carry forward deficits is likely one of the most significant weaknesses in the state’s government framework. Decision making is further complicated by a high level of consensus required to adopt legislation that become effective immediately and political gridlock. The state requires a simple majority to enact immediately effective laws from January 1 through May 31, but a three-fifths majority during the remainder of the year. Despite operating for a full year without a comprehensive budget, growing payables, increased social pressure, and 2016 being an election year, the state was only able to adopt a stopgap measure that funds six months of continued spending deferring action on its structural budget gap until next year.
In our view, the state’s remaining options add uncertainty, are likely to come with an increased cost, and would further weaken the state’s creditworthiness. The state would likely manage its liquidity by continuing to accumulate either short-term or long-term payables, both of which are temporary measures that would further weaken the state’s fiscal position. Arguably, many of the state’s service providers are operating with weakened balance sheets after having to endure a full year with no or reduced payments. The ability, if not the willingness, to continue to provide services in exchange for deferred payment, albeit at a premium, could come into question during a recession, especially if payables continue to rise. As an alternative, the state could access the capital markets to issue deficit bonds. GO must be authorized by at least 60% of the General Assembly and there is a well-established priority for payment of debt. We would expect that if deficit bond financing were to be approved, it would come at a premium.
* S&P estimates Illinois’ Medicaid costs would rise from $7.8 billion to $7.954 billion, or 2 percent in a recession. The revenue shortfall would be $1.286 billion, with no reserves on hand to cushion the blow. Revenue would fall from $23.271 billion to $21.985 billion, or 5.5 percent. And the share of debt, pension payments and other post-employment benefits would rise from 28.8 percent of revenues to 30.0 percent.
