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New poll
Tuesday, Jul 10, 2007 Bill Foster’s campaign has been trying to convince me (and I assume others) to write about his potential congressional bid for the past several days. I’ve been a bit busy with this overtime session, but Lynn Sweet has a piece today about a new poll in the district. Foster is a wealthy Democrat who claims he will spend a million dollars of his own money on just the primary race to decide which Democrat will replace (or challenge) Congressman Denny Hastert, the former US House Speaker. Hastert is expected to announce soon whether he will run again. Anyway, Foster’s campaign has a new poll. Sweet has some results…
Interesting. And check this out…
Bush’s unfavorables are higher in a Republican district than Blagojevich’s? Wow. Thoughts?
- Posted by Rich Miller
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- If It Walks Like a Duck... - Tuesday, Jul 10, 07 @ 8:05 am:
Ain’t no satisfying those neocons!
- Scott - Tuesday, Jul 10, 07 @ 8:10 am:
I live just a few miles South of this district and I can tell you that I see a Democrat taking it next time around. The district isn’t Republican, it is Hastert friendly. Once the former Speaker retires it is anyone’s ball game.
- Tom - Tuesday, Jul 10, 07 @ 8:11 am:
Pete is good. The polling company he hired stinks. This state has a “thing” about rich guys trying to buy their way into office.
- The Conservative - Tuesday, Jul 10, 07 @ 8:23 am:
Not sure where this is coming from, I live here and am involved and do not see it nor hear it.
- Lula May - Tuesday, Jul 10, 07 @ 8:30 am:
They are still upset about the immigration bill being shoved down their throats. They will get over it in time. Don’t count your chickens Democrats.
- zatoichi - Tuesday, Jul 10, 07 @ 8:33 am:
I know nothing about Foster. He may have worked hard to earn his money or simply inherited it. May be a great guy. Don’t know, don’t care. A comment like “I’ll spend a million of my own money just in the primary” makes the process seem like just a hobby for him because he has the dollars and wants to buy another trophy for the office wall. Seems like an odd, egotistic way to start a campaign.
- OT07 - Tuesday, Jul 10, 07 @ 8:44 am:
Is this the same Bill Foster who lobbies for the Township Officials and County Treasurers?
- Skeeter - Tuesday, Jul 10, 07 @ 8:53 am:
The real story is the great numbers for Sen. Durbin. In that district, the numbers should be doubled.
Unless things change dramatically (always a possibility), Sen. Durbin is going to absolutely cruise to victory.
Not to digress, and speaking of change that would impact the race: I am curious what all of the numbers would be if they assume that Sen. Clinton is leading the Dem ticket. I assume that the numbers would be much more favorable to the GOP. If she gets the nomination, then Foster should save his money for two years. If I was Foster, I would put that in the field before spending serious money.
- Gus Frerotte's Clipboard - Tuesday, Jul 10, 07 @ 9:02 am:
My guess is that there are two reasons Bush’s unfavorables are higher than Blagojevich’s: (1) in the northern part of the state people don’t pay as much attention to state government generally, and (2) people associate Bush with the mismanagement of the war in Iraq, and that carries a significant death toll, unlike anything people object to about Blagojevich.
- Ryan - Tuesday, Jul 10, 07 @ 9:06 am:
I live in this district and find it very laughable that these uncredible polls become news. Chris Lauzen would win Haesert’s seat hands down. I presume Hillary will be the nominee, and her approvals in this district are awful. She is too vain to put Obama on her ticket. Durbin’s Guatanamo and anti Military comments do not help the Dem’s here either.
- Moderate Repub - Tuesday, Jul 10, 07 @ 9:10 am:
what was the sample size? WHo did it? what were the splits? I can write a poll and get results that show Charles Manson would beat Jesus. WHo was the pollster Rich?
- Moderate Repub - Tuesday, Jul 10, 07 @ 9:12 am:
Lauzen would be a contender, but hands down Ryan? Come on guy look at yourself.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Jul 10, 07 @ 9:15 am:
MR, go read the whole story for that info.
- Ryan - Tuesday, Jul 10, 07 @ 9:15 am:
Duckworth saw the writing on the wall in 2008. She knows Hillary will be the nominee and the GOP base will be out in full force to stop her. This helps Kirk, Weller, Manzullo etc. Without Obama on the ticket, the Dems have no chance in the Surburban Districts. Melissa Bean will not make any stops with Hillary either.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Jul 10, 07 @ 9:24 am:
I’m posting this in comments today on almost every item…
The really nasty nicknames some of you routinely use are annoying me. I’ve begun deleting the worst ones and will continue to do so.
Elevate yourselves, please. It’s not too much to ask.
- Moderate Repub - Tuesday, Jul 10, 07 @ 9:25 am:
My bad, I didn’t read the whole story. Democrat firm, would have to see the splits, however, I really don’t think that district could be democrat controled. But, with Oboma or Hilary on the ballot, and Blago avoiding indictment by then (I don’t think the budget impass will afect the congressional votes that much) you never know. I didnt think Senate Dems would have picked up 5 seats last cycle so the burbs seats look more blue all the time
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Jul 10, 07 @ 9:25 am:
And by “nicknames” I mean nicknames you have given others, like the guv, Stroger, etc.
- Ryan - Tuesday, Jul 10, 07 @ 9:27 am:
Moderate, The democrats have no significant office holders in that district to run. The only candidate would have to be a Blair Hull type , which would backfire. We are also forgetting that the Former Speaker’s endorsement will carry much weight. Tom Cross would be great here, but they need him in the State House.
- Ryan - Tuesday, Jul 10, 07 @ 9:30 am:
The GOP lost 5 Senate Seats because of mass GOP retirements and appointed Candidates like Cheryl Axley.
- Old Shepherd - Tuesday, Jul 10, 07 @ 9:35 am:
I’d like to repeat OT07’s question…Is this the same Bill Foster that lobbies for the Township Officials of Illinois and for Illinois County Treasurers?
- Ryan - Tuesday, Jul 10, 07 @ 9:44 am:
Foster is a lobbyist who wants to clean up America? Call the Kettle Black.
- Stuck with Sen. CPA - Tuesday, Jul 10, 07 @ 9:45 am:
I’m not terribly surprised by those numbers. Most of my moderate Republican friends don’t like the war and don’t like Bush. And the Blago numbers are within the MoE, so let’s call it a tie.
Let’s face facts: most folks don’t pay that much attention to politics, but it’s really hard to miss the Iraq war and its bungling and sheer folly.
As I’ve said here before, I have little doubt that Lauzen could win the GOP primary in my district based on his strength amongst conservatives. If he does (and I’m even hearing that Denny may back him), it will be a great opportunity for the Ds to pick up a seat. On the D side, Foster’s only real challenge will be Chapa LaVia, who is a good campaigner and retail politician.
- Team Sleep - Tuesday, Jul 10, 07 @ 9:55 am:
Old Shepherd, it’s not the same Bill Foster. The Bill Foster you are thinking of has an office in Springfield and lobbies at the statehouse.
Denny is vulnerable but I don’t think he would lose in a head-to-head matchup - if he runs again. I don’t see why he would run again; he is relegated to the minority and is no longer in a leadership role. He may be the former speaker but a lot of his perks are gone. John Laesch gave him a serious run for his money, and a better-funded candidate would certainly have a greater chance at winning than Mr. Laesch.
On a side note, Denny looked beaten when he hosted his press conference last October. He was followed around by the media non-stop and it looked as though he was having a difficult time handling the pressure. I don’t know how he would fare with another tough race.
- Ryan - Tuesday, Jul 10, 07 @ 9:59 am:
It is almost impossible to pick up Congressional seats during a Prez year. The bases are out in force. By Elections are your best shot. Foster and LaVia are not known and Bush will not be on the ticket, but Public Enemy, Hillary, will be.
- Ryan - Tuesday, Jul 10, 07 @ 10:01 am:
Tammy Duckworth not running in 2008 is a great indicator of DEM chances in the suburbs.
- VanillaMan - Tuesday, Jul 10, 07 @ 10:05 am:
The election is about Hastert. He has more than the 51% needed to win re-election. He knows his district, has earned their trust, and believe it or not, a Republican in a moderate congressional district win re-election if he is a proven incumbant.
2008 will not be 2006. The Democrats own 50% of the issues we deal with today. After six months, they have nothing to show for their majorities.
- Scott Lukas - Tuesday, Jul 10, 07 @ 10:35 am:
Ryan - Oberweiss absolutely pounds your boy Lauzen. His latest TV commercial is absolutely top shelf. Notice at the end the guy sweeping the floor is a blond hair blue eyed registered Republican.
- Jon Shibley Fan - Tuesday, Jul 10, 07 @ 10:47 am:
Once again, we find ourselves taking an unscheduled stop at I-don’t-believe-the-polls-junction.
One comment expresses surprise that the poll was conducted by a “Democrat firm.”
Foster is a Democrat. That he has hired a Democratic pollster shouldn’t elicit too much surprise.
Another comment suggested they’d have to “see the splits.” By that you must mean the results of any split sampling. But typically, only issue questions are split, not party ID or head-to-head votes. And they’re often done to gauge response to differently worded questions (or to squeeze more questions in without lengthening the time of the poll). So seeing the splits might give a better sense of how voters feel about particular issues (ie immigration, ethanol, etc.), but it wouldn’t change the numbers that drive the story (unless you mean cross tabs - which Lynn Sweet -who has certainly seen a couple of polls in her day- has seen).
Just because you don’t like the results does not invalidate the poll. Recognizing that in some fertile imaginations, a candidate would pay $30k for a poll that gives conveniently incorrect results, that candidate would still be foolish to then turn over that poll to a reporter.
The fact is, an incorrect poll is useless to the candidate that pays for it. And a pollster’s reputation (and thus their livelihoods) depend on accuracy. Certainly there are exceptions - but they are just that - exceptions.
- Six Degrees of Separation - Tuesday, Jul 10, 07 @ 11:25 am:
Jon Shibley -
And polls are a useful tool to try to find a way to “shade” the truth and positions to reach the magic 50.1%. The fact is, whoever the Republican is in this race, Hastert or not, will have name recognition. Linda Chapa La Via is the only likely Democratic primary winner with name recognition and a base, and she is also relatively 14th District-friendly, not like the one time fluke Laesch who caught a breeze from a perfect storm and still lost by 20%. If this Foster wants to be more than a $300 per vote primary loser like Blair Hull, he’s going to have to introduce himself to the District, stake out some 50.1% or better positions, and play nice with the power brokers.
- Jon Shibley Fan - Tuesday, Jul 10, 07 @ 11:48 am:
Six,
I don’t necessarily disagree with that. That’s why you raise money. That’s why you run field.
But there’s no shading a question like “if the election for congress were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate,” or “do you strongly approve, approve, disapprove or strongly disapprove of the job Dennis Hastert is doing in Congress?” Those are pretty straightforward.
Of course Foster will need to do a good job - I never said he (or any other non-Hastert candidate, D or R) wouldn’t. But the poll shows an environment in which today, a Dem can conceivably win, and it shows that today, some voters are open to Foster’s profile. It doesn’t do his job (or his fundraiser’s job or his political person’s job or his field person’s job) for him.
I’m just grousing a bit about the knee-jerk reaction by some to always question the validity of polls they don’t like - or to toss around terminology that my fool some into thinking they know what they’re talking about, but exposes to many others that they do not.
- OneManBlog - Tuesday, Jul 10, 07 @ 11:49 am:
Six Degrees has it on the money…
Something to keep in mind, back when Lauzen and Hastert had more overlap in Aurora Lauzen would consistently get more votes than him.
I think most people would be surprised how popular Lauzen is in Aurora even with voters who would not agree with him on many issues.
- Stuck with Sen. CPA - Tuesday, Jul 10, 07 @ 11:52 am:
Chapa LaVia isn’t that well known outside of Aurora and will need to raise decent money to handle Foster. She’ll have union support and, obviously, Latino support. First of all, Linda will have to explain her flip-flop on licenses for illegals too. I can see the Foster direct-mail pieces now. (I agree Laesch is a joke. See Zamora, Ruben.)
- Six Degrees of Separation - Tuesday, Jul 10, 07 @ 12:15 pm:
Lauzen can count on a lot of votes from people who don’t march in lock-step with him or some of his goofier ideas -
He’s a 15 year incumbent with lots of name recognition, his office has a reputation for first-class constituent service, he is seen as a friend by many elderly who are a consistent voting bloc, and he is not afraid to tilt against power, appealing to the independent streak in all of us. His main drawbacks are his irrelevancy in a blue state where he also isn’t too chummy with his own party, and his tendency to demagogue more than get results as a legislator.
I am not surprised he edges Hastert out in their common territory in Aurora. But neither has had a serious (less than 20% margin) challenge in years, at least that I can recall.
- The Conservative - Tuesday, Jul 10, 07 @ 12:24 pm:
The Ice Cream is melting, The Amnesty bill failed, Lauzen wins.
- Way Northsider - Tuesday, Jul 10, 07 @ 1:06 pm:
Bush is deadlier by far than Blago. Obviously people slow to figure things out are beginning to see what many have known for a long time - the man cares about nothing except making money for his big business friends. In the meantime it is young men and women, many from Republican families who are taking the brunt of the damage and paying the incredibly high price.
I don’t know the district in detail and can’t comment on who would win but it astounds me that anyone could even consider voting for anyone who has “stood with the Commander in Chief”. I know this will get people riled but really, what are people thinking (or not)?!!
Bush needs to stop talking (he is spouting less nonsense these days I have to admit because he is not saying much ), replace Gonzalez, rein in Cheney and bring our men and women home. Than, and only then, will Republicans stand a chance.
- Lincoln Lounger - Tuesday, Jul 10, 07 @ 1:40 pm:
I just can’t wait for Lauzen and Oberweis to go after each other. Two who deserve each other.
- grotberg's spirit - Tuesday, Jul 10, 07 @ 3:04 pm:
Isn’t the mayor of Geneva, Kevin Burns, the middle of the road GOP’er also running in this race. He may not win, but who will be effected more by his campaign Obie One or Lauzen?
- Pete Giangreco - Tuesday, Jul 10, 07 @ 3:11 pm:
No,OT7, this Bill Foster is a successful businessman and Fermilab scientist, not a lobbyist.
- Crockett - Tuesday, Jul 10, 07 @ 3:31 pm:
Didn’t he coach Northwestern’s men’s basketball team too?
- Champ - Tuesday, Jul 10, 07 @ 3:58 pm:
Chapa LaVia is the best thing Aurora has going for it. She has done a lot for economic development, specifically championing the rivers edge development zone project, which involves state and local governments in promoting business and creating jobs. Perhaps it appears that she “flip-flops” on issues because people introduce crappy bills that shouldn’t be voted on no matter what the underlying policy rationale is. Personality wise, she is one of the most genuine, engaging legislators around the complex.
- Six Degrees of Separation - Tuesday, Jul 10, 07 @ 4:28 pm:
I was a little off in my “Blair Hull” reference above, but not by much. He spent about $29 million on his campaign and got about 135,000 votes in the 2004 US Senate primary, translating to about $215 a vote. Heck, he would have been better off handing out $20 bills, free drink coupons and “Blair Hull” baseball caps, t-shirts and other paraphernelia just outside the polling perimeters.
- Squideshi - Tuesday, Jul 10, 07 @ 5:28 pm:
I do know that there is some interest in running a Green candidate in this district, but I have absolutely no idea if it will actually happen.
- Tom Bowen - Tuesday, Jul 10, 07 @ 5:30 pm:
No crockett, Bill only coached his daughter’s soccer teams in Batavia.
Pingback WurfWhile » Blog Archive » Democrat Bill Foster’s Poll Convinced Him He Can Win In 14th Congressional District - Tuesday, Jul 10, 07 @ 11:19 pm:
[…] Rich Miller cover the poll as well - pointing out that President Bush’s unfavorable rating is higher than Governor Blagojevich’s in a supposedly GOP district. […]
- VRWC - Tuesday, Jul 10, 07 @ 11:29 pm:
I live in the district and its as Republican as you can find. Ever hear of something called illegal aliens? Ask John McCain. He’s headed in the same direction as Bush thanks to their boneheaded obstinancy.
Pingback The Capitol Fax Blog » Congressional stuff - Wednesday, Jul 11, 07 @ 8:22 am:
[…] * I have a couple of more results from that poll I told you about yesterday in Denny Hastert’s district. […]