SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
*** UPDATED x1 *** New polls: Jackson up by 17 over Halvorson

Monday, Nov 21, 2011

*** UPDATE *** Halvorson responds…

“This poll demonstrates that the race for the Illinois 2nd Congressional District is wide open. Even though almost all of the respondents in the poll know who Representative Jesse Jackson, Jr. is, only 35% of them are willing to support his reelection and almost half of the total respondents were undecided.

“I’ve been out talking to residents of the district every day and what I hear most is that they are tired of waiting. Our district needs a strong representative who is going to fight for jobs now. Representative Jackson has had 15 years to get the job done and is vulnerable because he has little results to show to this district.”

[ *** End Of Update *** ]

* Fako & Associates, Inc. has a new poll out

We conducted these surveys as an internal test, not commissioned by any campaign or third party organization. We chose the 2nd Congressional District to run nearly identical Interactive Voice Recognition and traditional live interviewer surveys because of the unique dynamics of the district. Its population and the state of the race presented numerous beneficial attributes to test the viability of IVR surveying. We will be discussing the advantages and disadvantages we discovered through these two surveys after the Thanksgiving holiday, but for now, we present you some of the results

These two polls only have 301 respondents each, so the MOE is a pretty high +/- 5.65 percent.

* Here are the CD 2 trial heat toplines. The first result in each line is for robocalls, the second number is for live interviewers…

Jackson……………………………. 39%….. 35%

Halvorson…………………………. 22%….. 18%

Undecided/Other/Refused…. 38%….. 47%

No longtime incumbent wants to be under 50 percent. Ever. But that’s still a decent sized cushion.

* Name ID, favorability and Jackson job approval…

Jesse Jackson, Jr.:

Substantive Name ID……….. 95% 93%

Positive…………………………… 38% 44%

Neutral……………………………. 30% 27%

Negative………………………….. 27% 22%

Don’t Know…………………….. 5% 7%

Jesse Jackson, Jr. as Congressman:

Approve………………………….. 41% 56%

Disapprove……………………… 24% 25%

Don’t Know…………………….. 35% 19%

Debbie Halvorson:

Substantive Name ID……….. 58% 54%

Positive…………………………… 26% 25%

Neutral……………………………. 22% 22%

Negative………………………….. 10% 7%

Don’t Know…………………….. 42% 46%

Not hugely great favorability and job approval numbers for Jackson, considering that he’s so well known.

* President Obama’s job approval…

Approve………………………….. 82% 89%

Disapprove……………………… 7% 6%

Don’t Know…………………….. 10% 5%

* That high presidential approval will be key if Fox Chicago’s recent report is accurate

The woman who vows to unseat Jesse Jackson Junior told FOX Chicago News the South Side congressman is so damaged by scandal not even a Presidential endorsement could save him.

Former Representative Debbie Halvorson (D-Illinois) was reacting to our Tuesday night report. A source close to the President’s re-election campaign told us President Obama would support Jackson in the March 20th primary.

It’s still not clear exactly what the President would do for Rep. Jackson (D-Illinois.) He’s still under investigation by the House Ethics Committee on charges related to Rod Blagojevich’s attempt to sell a U.S. Senate seat.

Halvorson declared, “People are sick and tired of his ethics problems, the fact that he’s never around, that he hasn’t done anything. The people of the Second Congressional District need somebody who can walk and chew gum at the same time, somebody who can actually do several things at once and work to bring jobs and economic development to each individual town in the district.

Discuss.

* Full toplines and crosstabs…

* Summary Topline

* Tables for IVR & Cellular Study

* Tables for Live Landline & Cellular Study

- Posted by Rich Miller        


16 Comments
  1. - Boone Logan Square - Monday, Nov 21, 11 @ 1:08 pm:

    As you say, a big MoE, but Jackson has to be concerned about both his favorables and the fact that just about as many respondents chose “undecided/no answer” as chose him in the robocalls.

    Interesting that Halvorson doesn’t have much of a split between live and robocall responses, but Jackson does.


  2. - Cincinnatus - Monday, Nov 21, 11 @ 1:09 pm:

    Interesting results (not Halverson v. Jackson). Are people more willing to be honest with humans or machines?


  3. - wordslinger - Monday, Nov 21, 11 @ 1:36 pm:

    Why would Obama want to get involved in that mess? One of the great benefits of being president is having the ability to stay above the fray in primaries.


  4. - Boone Logan Square - Monday, Nov 21, 11 @ 1:39 pm:

    The subject of how candid people are with machines vs. humans is (as you can imagine) actively debated in the community of pollsters. See, for example the articles at:
    http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/robopolls

    and the lengthy discussion at:
    http://poq.oxfordjournals.org/content/69/5/655.full?ijkey=z5sAQQb5cEln2oB&keytype=ref


  5. - Ambivelent - Monday, Nov 21, 11 @ 1:39 pm:

    Big split by race but not by gender. That hurts Halvorson’s shot big time.


  6. - Ambivelent - Monday, Nov 21, 11 @ 1:42 pm:

    Boone - note this:
    The job performance question in the IVR survey included a prompted undecided response while the live interview survey
    had undecided as a voluntary response. This was done as a test to observe any differences between the two techniques.


  7. - Aaron Krager - Monday, Nov 21, 11 @ 2:17 pm:

    Why test between the two methods with such a large MOE? If Fako & co. wanted to know better performance or better response rates or etc. then why not test with a larger pool?


  8. - Robert - Monday, Nov 21, 11 @ 2:47 pm:

    two reactions:

    1) early polls don’t mean much, since there is still time for Halverson’s ads / newspaper endorsements / mailings to have an effect.

    2) If Pres Obama does indeed endorse Junior, the ad touting that endorsement would be tough to overcome.


  9. - Robert - Monday, Nov 21, 11 @ 2:48 pm:

    ==Why would Obama want to get involved in that mess? One of the great benefits of being president is having the ability to stay above the fray in primaries.==
    Maybe President Obama owes Junior a favor?


  10. - Nice Kid - Monday, Nov 21, 11 @ 2:53 pm:

    The number of undecideds is ginormous.


  11. - Pot calling kettle - Monday, Nov 21, 11 @ 3:02 pm:

    “Support” is pretty vague. I wouldn’t be surprised if Obama stays out of it, which the JJJ people might count as “support.”


  12. - Team Sleep - Monday, Nov 21, 11 @ 3:12 pm:

    I’ve done enough phone banking and direct political calling to know that half the time an answer of “don’t know” or “unsure” or “undecided” can be completely indecipherable. I’ve typically found it to mean that people either don’t want to talk to those making the calls or they don’t want to provide any info. JJJ has been in Congress long enough that most voters should be aware of him and have at least a shallow (i.e. like or dislike) opinion. I understand the not sure crowd, especially since the primary is 3 1/2 months away.


  13. - District_DEM - Monday, Nov 21, 11 @ 3:13 pm:

    Its no surprise that name ID is high for Junior….but I think its a huge WIN for Halvorson that his favorable is less then 40%. To think if that many people know you, and less than half of them think youre doing a good job, says that the change message is still strong in that neck of the wooods


  14. - Skeeter - Monday, Nov 21, 11 @ 5:12 pm:

    Walk and chew gum? Is Debbie really calling him stupid?

    I have no use for JJJ. I view him as a hack more concerned with himself than anything else. But stupid? No, he’s not stupid and I find the charge slightly offensive.


  15. - Gregor - Monday, Nov 21, 11 @ 6:27 pm:

    Come on, the threejay investigation is going to enter a new chapter when the Blago brothers uncork the info they’ve been sitting on, and trips will tank in the polls. Halvorsen just has to not make any glaring mistakes, keep up the pressure, the curiosity, about what’s not yet known, and wait for Junior to self-destruct.


  16. - Six Degrees of Separation - Monday, Nov 21, 11 @ 6:35 pm:

    Gregor - it’s all a matter of…

    Timing.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* React to Rauner vetoes
* Reader comments closed for the weekend
* Rauner vetoes several union-backed bills
* This just in... Illinois Supreme Court accepts direct appeal of remap case
* Social service providers claim administration has "unchecked discretion" over paying off old contracts
* GOP poll: Kirk and Duckworth essentially tied, Clinton leads by 14
* Today's quotable
* The Roger Ailes connection to Illinois
* Even more editorial support for the Independent Map Amendment
* Question of the day
* Today in Illinois history
* *** LIVE COVERAGE *** Rauner education press conference
* Trump's best point of the night
* Mrs. Rauner appears to support Turnaround Agenda strategy
* Caption contest!
* Adding some context to Rauner's e-mail diatribe
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Oh, this ought to be good
* Rauner apologizes for making "unfair, untrue" comments in old e-mail
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............
<


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

  
* If we had a personal cloud instead of a phone, would we be better off?
* iPhone 7 Pro specs and features, Galaxy Note 7 battery & more – Pocketnow Daily
* Evan Blass leaks Apple iPhone 7 release date
* SurveyMonkey proclaims peak Pokemon GO in US
* Instant hidden rebate for Moto G4 on Amazon
* Dots & Co. tweaks the Dots games by adding a friendly companion
* iPhone 7 Plus? iPhone 7 Pro? Here’s a video showing either or both of them

* Sale scratched after 'clubhouse incident'
* Sale's Sox future may have new wrinkle
* Quintana to start after completion of suspended game
* Is Sale trade more likely after clubhouse incident?
* Sale scratched after 'clubhouse incident'
* White Sox-Tigers suspended after 8 innings
* Rain delaying Tigers-White Sox in Chicago

...............


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress

Loading


* State costs for amendment notices likely to top.....
* SIU at the crossroads: Leaders weigh future of .....
* State Gets Shut-Off Notice..
* EXCLUSIVE: Aaron Schock Reacts to Grand Jury De.....
* Opinion | Voice of The Southern..
* Rauner, police work on pot bill - Danville Comm.....
* Illinois governor working with police on mariju.....
* Illinois governor working with police on mariju.....


* EXCHANGE: Survivors of cancer victims marry, now family of 8
* WNBA withdraws fines for teams that wore black warmup shirts
* WNBA withdraws fines for teams that wore black warmup shirts
* Chicago police say Uber driver a felon with handgun, drugs
* Construction at NIU stalled by state budget ready to resume
* Penguins are returning to Lincoln Park Zoo in new exhibit
* Illinois town hopes its levee can be inspected, deemed safe
* Chicago police say Uber driver a felon with handgun, drugs
* WNBA president lauds activism, wishes it was kept off court
* ACLU praises new Illinois limits on cellphone surveillance

* State costs for amendment notices likely to top $2 million
* Rauner OKs regulating police use of cell-site simulators
* Illinois Supreme Court to consider remap ballot measure
* Rauner vetoes construction-wage, homecare-worker pay increases
* Rauner apologizes, Chicago teachers protest over 2011 email questioning their competency
* Providers: Stop gap budget won't have 'meaningful' impact
* Rauner apologizes for calling Chicago teachers illiterate
* Illinois ordered to rethink medical marijuana for migraines
* Rauner once called Chicago teachers 'virtually illiterate'
* Gov. Rauner signs early childhood law

* Lolla at 25: The math on the tickets, the T-shirts, the grass (not that grass)
* How Clinton can out-convention Trump
* Trump's running mate has a business success story of his own to tell
* Duking it out for dominance at O'Hare
* Why we need to reverse Chicago's tree loss, and other letters from readers


* Leaked emails mar Democratic convention opening
* Two shot in Humboldt Park
* Suspect wearing wolf mask robs DeKalb bank at gunpoint
* Rambling outside Wooded Isle: Pondering mysteries and plans
* Man shot in South Chicago apartment
* Man charged with growing pot in Andersonville home
* Man critically wounded in West Elsdon shooting
* Lanes closed on I-57 after rollover crash
* Police: Man injured in Antioch crash ran away without treatment
* Man shot on Near West Side


* Rain can't dampen Coldplay party at Soldier Field
* Towing mistake leads to refund dispute; preparing for driverless cars
* Donald Trump says France, others hit by terror may face 'extreme vetting'
* Photos: Coldplay at Soldier Field
* 1 killed, 1 wounded in Calumet City shootings
* 1 dead, 7 wounded in Chicago shootings
* Latest Chris Sale-White Sox controversy has more questions than answers
* Body found as 'horrific' wildfire burns near Los Angeles
* 2 killed in I-57 rollover crash
* Amid bike, pedestrian traffic, saxophonist practices craft for decades in tunnel


* State costs for amendment notices likely to top $2 million
* Statehouse Insider: Rauner, AFSCME conduct PR war while labor talks at standstill
* Bernard Schoenburg: Buscher moves from independent to GOP, Trump
* Connecting people with volunteer opportunities
* Sommer family gives back together
* Joel Erickson: Sen. Kirk must stand up for veterans' rights
* Charles Krauthammer: Notes from Cleveland: The two-part rebellion
* Rauner OKs regulating police use of cell-site simulators
* Illinois Supreme Court to consider remap ballot measure
* Rauner vetoes construction-wage, homecare-worker pay increases


* Carbondale accepts bid to demolish Horizon Inn: Officials hope to have it done by end of 2016.
* PFOP: WWI homefront featured French-Belgian relief
* Community unites at Cultural Fest, embraces differences
* Volunteers rush to safely move pets away from fire
* Getting Personal: Susan Elmore
* Area history, July 24, 2016
* Top 50 College Football Teams of 2016: No. 11, Tennessee
* Area history, July 22, 2016
* Sunday Extra: Ignorance does not protect us
* Top 50 Illini Football Players of 2016: No. 11, Malik Turner


* Through descendants, vivid tales of Eastland survivors keep memory alive
* Suburban 4-H: 'It's not just farming and vegetables'
* How suburban women in politics helped blaze trail for Hillary Clinton
* Constable: Suburban camp for kids with disabilities fuels fun
* 3 things to watch as Democratic delegates arrive in Philly

* House lawmakers overcome hurdle on key tra...
* Rodney Davis talks funding with Bloomingto...
* The agency that fought Illiana gets a new ...
* Rep. Dold takes educational cruise down Ch...
* Lawmakers decry high turnover rate of VA h...
* CBD Oil, and politics
* Simon considering state Senate bid
* Killer Congressman Tom MacArthur trying to...
* Shutdown? State may not notice
* Rep. Bob Dold

* Durbin Sends Letter to DEA Calling for Str......
* Durbin Announces $2.8 Million in HUD Fundi......

* Letter: Kirk's integrity - Northwest Herald...

* Random thoughts. This is not an election over who is a friend of Wall Street.
* Laundromat Coming To Wilson & Magnolia Strip Mall
* Trumps returns to old ways: denials and finger-pointing about Cruz
* Trump returns to old ways: denials and finger-pointing about Cruz
* Illinois GOP delegates cast 54 votes for Trump, 9 for Cruz, 6 for Kasich
* IR Readers Favorites for Third Week of July 2016
* Plagiarism.
* KKK Wizard David Duke runs on the Trump Party ticket for Louisiana senator.
* Cartoon Of The Day
* Jonathan Halabi at the AFT. Day 2.


* Discount Admission Tickets Available For Purchase At Area Retailers - Fair to extend purchasing hours at Emmerson Building
* Governor Announces Appointments
* New Halsted Street Bridge Finished at Byrne Interchange, Multimodal Travel, Neighborhood Connectivity Enhanced - Last of Eisenhower bridges to be completed, project moves into next phase
* No Pokemon Go access on Veteran Home’s grounds
* Governor Takes Bill Action




Hosted by MCS -- CapitolFax.com Privacy Policy -- SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax -- Advertise Here -- Mobile Version -- Contact Rich Miller