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*** UPDATED x1 *** Fresh Polling: Plummer down by 5 points, Walsh tanking hard

Monday, Oct 29, 2012

*** UPDATE *** The We Ask America site has been updated.

[ *** End Of Update *** ]

* I’ll have links a bit later, but the Democratic district drawn to reelect Congressman Jerry Costello (who then decided to retire) appears to be finally doing its job for Democratic candidate Bill Enyart. We Ask America has Enyart ahead of Jason Plummer for the first time this year.

I’m told that We Ask America now has Enyart up by five points, 51-46, with Green Party candidate Paula Bradshaw getting less than 4 percent. The poll was taken October 28th.

Not good at all for Plummer.

Again, links in a bit.

…Adding… From the pollster

Illinois 12 encompasses a large part of southwest Illinois and has elected conservative Democrats since the original lungfish crawled out of the ocean. Still, Barack Obama is not particularly popular here, and Republican candidate Jason Plummer hoped to be able to parlay his family’s well-know lumber business and 6-foot 8-inch frame into a winning effort. Many thought he was well on his way, but a series of post-primary moves by the Democrats have put Plummer on an uphill climb against his main competitor, former Adjutant General Bill Enyart.

Poll type: Automated Date: October 28, 2012 - Participants: 1,313 Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 2.7%

* Meanwhile, back in early October, We Ask America had Tammy Duckworth leading incumbent Republican Joe Walsh by six points, 50-44. But then, after President Obama’s disastrous debate performance had sunk in, We Ask America showed Walsh with a slight lead.

Since then, Walsh has made one mistake after another and Duckworth has gone super negative against him and the natural Democratic advantage in that district has really kicked in. As a result, Walsh began falling way behind in We Ask America’s tracking last week and he’s now at a more than 9-point disadvantage, rounded at 54-46. The poll was taken October 28th.

That gives us a whole lot of polls in a row now which have Duckworth above 50 and Walsh trailing by tenish.

Turn out the lights, the party’s over?

…Adding… From the pollster

While Duckworth hasn’t proven to be a great candidate, she has a distinct advantage in this re-drawn district by running against a guy who seems to enjoy being a lightning rod for controversy. Walsh surprised many by keeping this race competitive as long as he did, but Duckworth’s campaign has taken advantage of Walsh’s without-exception pro-life views while whacking him for not paying child support. That one-two punch seems to have pushed Walsh over the edge where he now may be in a free fall:

* We Ask America also has Republican Rodney Davis up by 5 over Democrat David Gill, 50-45, with five for the independent.

…Adding… From the pollster

While IL-13 leans slightly Democratic, the core of this newly configured district has chosen the opponent of Democrat David Gill in the last three congressional elections. It’s difficult to overcome that record, and Gill’s platform may prove to be a bit further to the left than the downstate area can accept. Republican Rodney Davis came into the race late and had to claw and scratch his way into the name recognition game, but it appears to be working. He recently received the endorsements of three top area newspapers which didn’t hurt matters.

Poll type: Automated Date: October 28, 2012 - Participants: 1,360 Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 2.7%

* Congresswoman Judy Biggert and former Congressman Bill Foster are tied.

…Adding… From the pollster

The new 11th District leans slightly Democratic and is not a great fit for either candidate here. Foster was a one-term congressman who was defeated in 2010, while Biggert has has a long career in both the Illinois General Assembly and Congress. Neither are particularly strong campaigners, but each have lots of campaign and outside money flowing. Foster’s vote for Obamacare has not been universally accepted in this area, and Biggert’s long career made it easy for her opponent to cherry pick past votes that could be splashed in direct mail and on TV. Like other area Democrats, Foster’s campaign has tried to paint pro-choice Biggert as an extremist. Unlike IL-10, though, much of the 11th District is new to both candidates.

Poll type: Automated Date: October 28, 2012 - Participants: 1,303 Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 2.7%

* Freshman Republican Bobby Schilling leads Cheri Bustos 52-48, but the firm has had Bustos slightly ahead in other recent polls, so they’re calling this a draw for now.

…Adding… From the pollster

We consider this one a dead heat. Schilling and Bustos change leads every other poll (we’ve done several there in the past 14 days, the last one had Bustos up by nearly 3 points) and it’s averages out as a simple 50-50 split. While heavily Democratic, this area has a blue-collar and somewhat conservative lean to it. Incumbent Congressman Schilling fills the “one-of-us” role well as a pizza restaurant owner who is both unpretentious and affable. But Schilling leans farther to the right than the district as a whole. Still, he’s found a strident-free way of communicating with constituents. Bustos, who was previously a news reporter and East Moline alderwoman, came to the race as a camera-ready fresh face with a solid political pedigree that hasn’t disappointed although her stance on issues remains a tad nebulous. Both work hard and both leave favorable impressions.

Poll type: Automated Date: October 28, 2012 - Participants: 1,325 Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 2.8%

* And Bob Dold appears to be doing quite well, with a 54-46 lead over Brad Schneider. That district is tough to poll, however.

…Adding… From the pollster

This affluent congressional district has always been one to ignore Party labels. Challenger Schneider’s campaign never seemed to understand that and is trying to portray pro-choice Bob Dold as a right-wing nut to a very well-informed electorate. While missing that target, Schneider has also stumbled a bit about the reality of his business experience. Questions about his resumé are being tied into his refusal to release his income tax records. Still, this district is strongly pro-Obama enough that Dold finds it hard to pull away outside of the margin of error:

Poll type: Automated Date: October 28, 2012 - Participants: 1,257 Likely Voters - Margin of Error: ± 2.8%

* Related…

* Schilling’s ‘Democrat’ newsletter angers Bustos: Rep. Bobby Schilling, R-Ill., is promoting his candidacy with a newsletter titled “The Illinois Democrat,” a piece that’s angered his rival, Democrat Cheri Bustos. The Bustos campaign complained about the mail piece Friday afternoon, arguing it’s an attempt to deceive voters. Schilling’s campaign countered, saying it’s merely an effort to reach out to Democrats with whom the congressman has much in common.

* Schilling, Bustos sharply divided on trade, jobs

* Durbin stumps for Bustos

* VIDEO: American Unity PAC ad: Judy Biggert — Clear Choice

* Endorsement: Bobby Schilling is our pick for Congress in 17th District

* Endorsement: Bustos for Illinois’ 17th District

* Endorsement: Schilling for U.S. District 17 representative

* Tight contest expected in 17th District

* Ex-Outsiders, Running on Record in Congress

* Schneider Colleagues Discuss Business Record

* Suburban candidates push early voting

* Moderates Biggert, Foster discover sharp contrast in heavyweight battle

* AUDIO: David Gill RadioSpot “Thanks”

* 13th District spending nears $8 million

* Vogel: Money cheapens 13th District race for Congress

* VIDEO: Peter Roskam on Joe’s Campaign

* VIDEO: Joe Walsh Speaks at FreePAC

* VIDEO: 8th District Women to Duckworth - Enough on Abortion

- Posted by Rich Miller        


34 Comments
  1. - OneMan - Monday, Oct 29, 12 @ 2:08 pm:

    Was this done yesterday and identified as a poll for a news organization? If so I think I got called.


  2. - Hail 4B - Monday, Oct 29, 12 @ 2:20 pm:

    This better be true Rich. Don’t be tugging at my heart strings


  3. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Oct 29, 12 @ 2:21 pm:

    Walsh peaked too soon, and everything else caught up to him. Walsh’s only hope at this point, is a better Election Day from the Tea Party, because the ILGOP can’t turn these numbers, they can’t turn any numbers without an Election Day aparatus.

    This MAY be the end of Ole Joe? Can the Tea Party save Joe, and make the ILGOP look even more inept than if Joe would have just lost?

    The Davis numbers are Cannoli-rific!

    And I have not forgotten my “favorite SON” Jason Plummer.

    Jason, what is your answer to getting your voters out; “telethoning”, TV ads that say, “Vote for Jason, Shimkus can handle 2 districts, Pizza party at Chuck E. Cheeze?

    Eight days … Final push … but where o’ where is the ILGOP to rescue these seats? Who will answer the bell to get the pluses to the polls and hold off the tide?

    As Smilin’ Jack Ross said to Danny Kaffee:

    “Your boys are going down, Danny. I can’t stop it anymore.”

    C’mon ILGOP, show me that Phone Bank strength… Show me that “pluses” list with HDems on it will save these race. Where are YOU Pat Brady … Where?


  4. - Rich Miller - Monday, Oct 29, 12 @ 2:22 pm:

    ===This better be true Rich.===

    It is. Well, it’s true meaning that I was able to get the numbers pre-publication.


  5. - Team Sleep - Monday, Oct 29, 12 @ 2:25 pm:

    I must admit that I am not surprised by the 12th CD poll. My predictions about a week out are:

    Duckworth wins by 7

    Biggert wins by 2

    Enyart wins by 4

    Davis wins by 3

    Schilling wins by 5

    This is a weak “candidate” year. Illinois won’t be susceptible to any “tides” (save for perhaps President Obama giving an oomph to Tammy Duckworth and General Enyart). There isn’t a Schock-like figure who can pull a ton of votes from the opposite party and build a long term firewall against any more serious challengers.

    The 12th CD includes Granite City, East St. Louis, Carbondale and Cairo - areas that are so solidly Democratic that it’s not inconceivable to think that Jason could maybe only keep pace in Granite City even after all the money that has been spent. The GOP candidates in key areas of the 12th CD (Mike Babcock, Mark Minor, Melinda Hult and Julie Bigham Eggers) are all going to lose badly. Only Kathy Smith has a chance to win her race, and she is likely to lose as well. Ugh.


  6. - CircularFiringSquad - Monday, Oct 29, 12 @ 2:27 pm:

    DeadBeatJoe, PizzaBobby and Daddy’s Lil Deduction(Jason Romney-Plummer) all getting toasted That leaves Foster and Schneider to get the final two and Speaker Boehner is 20% of the way to retirement


  7. - Peter - Monday, Oct 29, 12 @ 2:31 pm:

    I look forward to the tearful press conference.


  8. - Dan - Monday, Oct 29, 12 @ 2:43 pm:

    Like these numbers!


  9. - Responsa - Monday, Oct 29, 12 @ 2:50 pm:

    One Man–our house land line has been called several times (at least 4) over the last week by someone “taking a survey for a news organization”. We hang up. Anyone wanting info or feedback from me can darn well say upfront who they represent or identify their own name as a polling outfit. Absent that, I always assume it’s push poll garbage.


  10. - just sayin' - Monday, Oct 29, 12 @ 3:16 pm:

    So let’s see if we have this right Joe Walsh. Before you complained Duckworth only talked about being a war hero. Now you say she only talks about abortion.

    Just go away you big baby. Obviously you need to worry about your own campaign. Whatever Tammy is doing seems to be working great. Loser.


  11. - wordslinger - Monday, Oct 29, 12 @ 3:17 pm:

    Enyart up five points?

    What? Over? Did you say over? Nothing is over until we decide it’s over!

    Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?


  12. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Oct 29, 12 @ 3:25 pm:

    Germans?

    Forget it, he’s rolling!


  13. - 1776 - Monday, Oct 29, 12 @ 3:29 pm:

    We Ask America does not purport to be a news organization so I’m guessing it’s another outside group.


  14. - Disconnect - Monday, Oct 29, 12 @ 3:30 pm:

    well circular, Schilling has 52 and bustos 48 so do your math there again on who is getting “toasted”.

    seems like the dems drew a map to get them a 13-5 advantage. Looking more like 10-8. In Obama’s home state. If that is how it turns out, the Dems will not be looking so hot.


  15. - Shemp - Monday, Oct 29, 12 @ 3:34 pm:

    Still can’t believe the GOP’s best is Plummer and Walsh. How depressing.


  16. - Whatever - Monday, Oct 29, 12 @ 3:39 pm:

    Agree with Disconnect.

    Pelosi/Israel/Durbin/Schakowsky — they all pushed for this map for purely partisan reasons, and it doesn’t seem to be working out so well. Maybe they shouldn’t have insulted voters by trying to force Dem. districts on everyone? And maybe they could have recruited some better candidates?!?! What an embarrassment.


  17. - Responsa - Monday, Oct 29, 12 @ 3:53 pm:

    Andrew Mossman–your post must have inadvertantly gotten cut off mid-thought.


  18. - Arthur Andersen - Monday, Oct 29, 12 @ 3:54 pm:

    Willy, I guess word must be “Bluto.”


  19. - just sayin' - Monday, Oct 29, 12 @ 3:56 pm:

    “…and it doesn’t seem to be working out so well.”

    yeah keep thinking that and not how nearly every poll had Brady beating Quinn, until he didn’t. Far superior Democrat gotv good for x-tra 3-5%.


  20. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Oct 29, 12 @ 4:04 pm:

    - Arthur Andersen -,

    “Bluto” might be right. I should listen to you, your Pre-Med …

    My wish for the ILGOP … I wish they would …

    …dropped a whole truckload of fizzies into Buckingham Fountain… wish they delivered the UIC medical school cadavers to the HDem Caucus dinner… wish every Halloween, the trees around the Capitol are filled with underwear and wish every spring, the JRTC H&SDEM Caucus toilets explode…

    Then I would be PROUD to say … you’re talking about the ILGOP, AA …with 1 tear and a smile.


  21. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Oct 29, 12 @ 4:13 pm:

    ===Yep. But city Democrats have ground games.===

    Sorry, Rich.

    Sometimes, partisan Repubs with their National talking points forget how to win elections on the street, and make the rest of us Repubs who seem to know WHY we are losing, but can’t convince anyone how to correct it, look like Dopey Republican talking point puppets.

    We apologize to you.

    Sorry.


  22. - Rich Miller - Monday, Oct 29, 12 @ 4:19 pm:

    ===Andrew Mossman–your post must have inadvertantly gotten cut off mid-thought. ===

    And now it’s gone. lol


  23. - Arthur Andersen - Monday, Oct 29, 12 @ 4:22 pm:

    At this point, Willy, it’s clear the ILGOP has only one option left.
    Toga Party.


  24. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Oct 29, 12 @ 4:26 pm:

    ===At this point, Willy, it’s clear the ILGOP has only one option left.

    Toga Party.===

    WOW!!!

    Now …Now we are even on shirts! That Rober … um “Jason Plummer’s Dry Cleaning, Not Dad’s” is going to be busy …

    Wonder if the “box” shirts … don’t see that too often, I miss getting my shirts in boxes …but I digress …


  25. - Arthur Andersen - Monday, Oct 29, 12 @ 4:48 pm:

    Sorry about the shirt, Willy, but I think an ILGOP Toga Party has a lot of potential.
    Wouldn’t you lay down some dough for a foto with Treasurer Rutherford, Senator-in-waiting Oberweis, and yourself in togas?
    That’s what I thought.
    Your’s in fraternity,
    AA “Hoover”


  26. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Oct 29, 12 @ 5:18 pm:

    It’s not going to be a GOTV … Its a Toga Party …


  27. - Big Muddy - Monday, Oct 29, 12 @ 5:40 pm:

    Strange that WAA’s write-up refers to Plummer’s 20 point lead with independents but has them 57-37 for Enyart in the cross tabs…

    I wonder where their mistake is?


  28. - Scoot - Monday, Oct 29, 12 @ 5:41 pm:

    Hard to believe any congressional candidate will reach 50% in these elections. Only Goper in trouble at losing is Walsh


  29. - Team Sleep - Monday, Oct 29, 12 @ 6:26 pm:

    I must correct my previous post. Of those cities I listed, I think Plummer only has a shot at winning Carbondale - and even that’s a bit of a stretch.


  30. - Hail 4B - Monday, Oct 29, 12 @ 7:01 pm:

    ==I must correct my previous post. Of those cities I listed, I think Plummer only has a shot at winning Carbondale - and even that’s a bit of a stretch.==
    The only way Plummer wins Carbondale is by plurality. If Bradshaw can get up to 20% than maybe, but with narrative of this being a close race, and Plummer standing against what some much of the Green Party believes a lot of the crunchy granola hippie people are going to hold their noses and vote for Enyart.


  31. - jo jo - Monday, Oct 29, 12 @ 8:20 pm:

    Bob Schilling fooled me (more like duped me) with his nerdy 50’s stammering routine. Not this time. His son Terry is ruining his dad’s career with the choices he makes for the campaign. Deceitful calling his big newspaper whatever he thinks specific constituents might relate to. Its bad mojo to jojo.


  32. - Bakersfield - Monday, Oct 29, 12 @ 8:51 pm:

    Speaking of polls, got called tonight in the 9th. My guess is its mainly focused on Lou Lang’s seat as the direct mail has been flowing the past week. Sorry to upset the Lang folks but the direct mail did not get you the result you wanted from our house.


  33. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Oct 29, 12 @ 9:36 pm:

    Any comment from Pat Brady and the ILGOP???

    (Crickets)

    Can anyone point to comments from the ILGOP or Pat Brady on the recent polling?

    Thanks


  34. - Chambana - Tuesday, Oct 30, 12 @ 8:39 am:

    I see three Republicans over 50 and three Democrats over 50. I think that’s far from being “toasted.”


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