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Poll: President winning by 16 points here

Wednesday, Oct 31, 2012

* We Ask America decided to do a poll of likely Illinois voters for the presidential race

There’s been a surprising amount of conjecture coming our way lately about the possibility of Mitt Romney inching closer to Barack Obama in Illinois. We’ve not paid much attention to that conjecture until it started to be uttered in some national circles and a handful of reporters we respect called to ask if there was anything to it.

* Turns out, there’s nothing to it. President Obama leads Gov. Romney 57-41, with 2 points going to an unnamed third party candidate. Click for a better view of regional crosstabs

* Back to the pollster

For those of you uninitiated in the Illinois political scene — outside of following the hijinks of our politicians in Popular Prison Monthly — Chicago and Suburban Cook County each account for about 20% of the vote in the Land of Lincoln. No matter how well Romney does in the five suburban “collar counties” or downstate (the rest of Illinois outside of Chicago, Suburban Cook & the Collars), the huge hunk of burning love that his home base provides the president simply cannot be toppled. Some of our projections include turnout scenarios that put Romney as close as 10 points from the lead, but there is no way that Chicagoland is going to abandon its Favorite Son.

Discuss.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


41 Comments
  1. - Tom Joad - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 9:22 am:

    Romney has been trying to convince the press that he has momentum leading into election day. He has enough money, or superpac funds do, to buy ads in Minnesota and Wisconsin. Some National press has bought into this senario, and it has spilled into Illinois. Thethird debate and Hurricane Sandy put a stop to the momentum if their was any. The race has been tighting in the final days as they always do, thats all.


  2. - Downstater - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 9:31 am:

    Major variation between Cook/collar & downstate. Recent polls have been reflecting downstate moreso than Chicago. Chicago is not the US. The momentum is real.


  3. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 9:37 am:

    The Illinois conjecture was silly to begin with.

    The last GOP presidential candidate to win Illinois was HW with just over 50% against Dukakis in 1988.

    The best GOP showing since then was W with 45% in 2004.

    McCain got 38% in 2008.


  4. - hisgirlfriday - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 9:37 am:

    I’m sorry, but since when is Chicago not the U.S.?
    Just because Chicagoans don’t vote Republican doesn’t mean they are Canadians are something.

    But your post does reflect why Obama will not do as well Downstate as he did in 2008 because Obama is viewed by many resentful Downstaters not as an Illinoisan favorite son of the whole state but as just another Chicago Democrat.


  5. - ZC - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 9:37 am:

    Anyone claiming this race is trending Mitt needs to take a serious look at the last-minute auto ads Romney is airing in Ohio, ads that have been basically condemned across the media spectrum as pushing the envelope for dishonesty.

    Those ads look like a last Hail Mary pass by Romney-Ryan to me. They’re not the kind of ads you close on, if you think Ohio is safely trending your way.


  6. - western illinois - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 9:43 am:

    http://www.galesburg.com/news/x470412869/Poll-Galesburg-favors-Obama

    Leads by 30 in Galesburg


  7. - Robo - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 9:44 am:

    Agree with Downstater. IL has been in the Obama column so long it has become irrelevant to gauging presidential race. Might as well have UT numbers gauge Obama’s momentum. Final poll coming next week!!!


  8. - SAP - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 9:48 am:

    Obama’s downstate numbers matter only in down-ballot contests. He may not have coattails past Cook County, but he is in no danger of losing Illinois.


  9. - Small Town Liberal - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 9:48 am:

    - IL has been in the Obama column so long it has become irrelevant to gauging presidential race. -

    I don’t think that’s the point of Rich’s post. I think the point is more about how this will impact Illinois congressional and state legislative races.


  10. - amalia - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 9:50 am:

    @hisgirlfriday, right on! though at least the post did not called those from “Chicago” socialists…..

    funny that those from downstate would support a corporatist.


  11. - Downstater - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 9:52 am:

    Was just saying that Chicago does not reflect the entire US in response to Tom’s comment that Romney’s momentum has been stopped. Why would my post reflect resentment? My point is that downstate is closer to the national trend than Chicago.


  12. - Cook County Republican - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 9:53 am:

    I’m sure all the ghost voters will be out in force come election day. Illinois isn’t the United States, Obama will be upset.


  13. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 9:57 am:

    –Illinois isn’t the United States,–

    Then neither is California, New York, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, Vermont, Maine, Connecticut, Rhode Island, etc.

    I guess by that logic, the “real” United States can only be found in places like Texas, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, etc.

    Funny, back in the day, they didn’t want to be IN the United States.


  14. - The Captain - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 9:58 am:

    What is this math, are you a wizard?


  15. - Cook County Republican - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 10:00 am:

    Then enjoy following Obama over the cliff.


  16. - RNUG - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 10:05 am:

    I predict at the State level it’ll be just like Quinn’s election with the same two corners solidly Democratic, and a lot of the rest of the State going slightly GOP (most counties) to solidly GOP (a few counties) … except this time the winning margins here will be wider for the Dems.

    The question isn’t so much about Obama’s coattails as it is about Romney’s. Even in the GOP national landslide in 2010, the Illinois candidates didn’t hardly benefit. If downstate GOP’s are motivated to GOTV for Romney, then there might be some coattails for the rest of the ticket … but I wouldn’t bet on it. About the only bet I would put money on right now is that Menard County will be solidly GOP.


  17. - CircularFiringSquad - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 10:12 am:

    Stunning that the vaunted Gags Brady 3 gazillion phone calls can only get Mitt Plummer-Romney 51% downstate….can someone explain that one?
    BTW could it Gags made the calls, but did not call IL voters?
    Fire,Aim,Ready!


  18. - PollWatcher - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 10:20 am:

    They way oversampled Democrats in the downstate sample. No way Obama does better there than in the collars. Not. Gonna. Happen. He’ll be lucky to reach 40% downstate, but obviously he’ll still win the state as a whole.


  19. - Cheryl44 - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 10:30 am:

    Anything thinking this election is trending toward Romney missed Governor Christie throwing Mitt under the bus.


  20. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 10:53 am:

    Wait, the majority of you think that IL disposing of the electoral college is a good thing, but I guess IL is going to vote Romney after all. Ah, the consequences of asinine legislation! The foolish legislature voted to follow the popular vote across the US, but then that was because there was no way that a Republican could ever win the popular vote. This state is governed by a pack of fools, yes it starts in Chicago!


  21. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 10:55 am:

    ===The foolish legislature voted to follow the popular vote across the US===

    Um, no. That bill requires lots of other states to do so as well before it becomes effective. And you’re pretty hazy on the bill’s facts as well.

    Perhaps you need to find another blog. Happy trails.


  22. - train111 - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 11:05 am:

    Given that Obama has 44% in the collars compared to Quinn’s 39.27% and 46% downstate compared to Quinn’s 34.18%, I’d say the Dems are going to fare a bit better than 2 years ago.

    train111


  23. - Responsa - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 11:06 am:

    ==missed Governor Christie throwing Mitt under the bus.==

    I must have missed that. Unless you are referring to Gov. Christie and President Obama putting on a united front for the benefit of the devastated people of New Jersey and commiting to work in a non-partisan and complementary way to coordinate the State and Federal response.
    Isn’t that sort of respect and working across the aisle what people always say they want?


  24. - just sayin' - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 11:14 am:

    Anyone who actually thought Romney had a chance in Illinois should not quit their day job.


  25. - ZC - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 11:32 am:

    Again, Cook County is about 1/3 of the state’s vote. (1/6 Chicago, 1/6 collars). Collar counties around DuPage another 1/3. Rest of state = 1/3.

    So yes, Cook is essential, but don’t discount that 44% of the collars and _forty six percent_ of “Downstate” for Obama.

    Obama’s got plenty of support statewide. Any simplistic upstate / Downstate division just is not supported by Rich’s crosstabs above.


  26. - Capitol View - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 11:32 am:

    one theory for the Romney “surge” in Democratic states is the myth that the Jewish community will flip over to Romney due to President Obama not getting along with Israel govt. leader Bibi.

    The reality is that the American Jewish community supports the State of Israel, not necessarily any current government of Israel. I happen to be Jewish, and I strongly support Israeli security while I have little use for Bibi and even less for his Foreign Minister, Avigar Lieberman.

    As usual, the political pundits underestimate and oversimplify the political interests of the American Jewish community.


  27. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 11:39 am:

    Gov. Christie has spent three days praising Obama on all networks, including Fox.

    Gov. Romney has dodged questions about FEMA and suggestions during the primary debates that disaster relief should be turned over to the states or for-profit private sector.

    Meanwhile, Ol’ Brownie is back, doing a heckuva job criticizing Obama for acting too soon in preparing for Sandy. Let that one sink in a little bit.

    You can’t make this stuff up.


  28. - Small Town Liberal - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 11:46 am:

    - Meanwhile, Ol’ Brownie is back, doing a heckuva job criticizing Obama for acting too soon in preparing for Sandy. Let that one sink in a little bit. -

    Sadly I’ve already heard that line regurgitated by a true believer. Unreal.


  29. - Arthur Andersen - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 11:52 am:

    Word, I thought I heard something wrong the first time “Brownie” was on teevee. Nope. Incredible, eh?


  30. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 11:58 am:

    AA, I’m amazed the dude would even do interviews on disaster relief preparation.


  31. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 12:05 pm:

    I realize that the requirements were that the country has to adopt, but that was not the point of the post. The point was the your beloved Obama would not get this state’s votes if the law became reality. The outcry would be extremely loud by many of the commenters on this site, including you, if that would be the case. But I realize that you are not totally unbiased, much like your posting about the pensions that are going to break this state.


  32. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 12:11 pm:

    ===The point was the your beloved Obama would not get this state’s votes if the law became reality===

    First of all, bite me.

    Secondly, do you even know what you’re saying? He wouldn’t get Illinois’ votes if he lost the national popular vote. But if and only if the law is also passed by other states.


  33. - 3rd Generation Chicago Native - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 12:49 pm:

    Wordslinger, I missed Christie on Fox, did the reporter turn grey who was covering this?


  34. - Emily Booth - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 2:37 pm:

    Just keep replaying all those Republican rape quotes. Women are going to decide this year’s presidential race. Angry women.


  35. - walkinfool - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 3:31 pm:

    No reason that the suburban Cook County Republicans cannot take big chunks of voters and eventually win. Perhaps they should split out and focus specifically on that task with fundraising, events, staff, candidate recruiting, national support, etc. separate from Chicago. No reason for them to be as weak as they are in that geography.


  36. - amalia - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 4:10 pm:

    watched Christie with the President on Fox a few minutes ago and Obama was masterful in explaining everything that he was ordering and organizing. it was amazing. he even channeled Christie in the “told people to get the hell out,” vein. Cavuto said everyone should put aside the “crap” that Christie should not be doing this, oh, and Obama too. Fox viewers must have been jumping from their chairs at the sight!!!


  37. - NoBama - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 5:18 pm:

    Why wouldn’t Illinois support the most inept President since Jimmy Carter, whose only political experience is from the most screwed up state in the Union and rankes near the bottom in every category. Perfect match!


  38. - I M Willis - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 6:17 pm:

    If Obama couldn’t carry Illinois than he probably couldn’t carry any state or even D.C. I don’t see what all the flapping is about. I do like NoBama’s comment though - well said.


  39. - J - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 6:21 pm:

    82% Chicago, that’s about the right percent of people up there that live on government handouts.


  40. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 6:25 pm:

    Three Big Brain comments in a row. I thought trick-or-treating went to 7.


  41. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 11:45 pm:

    =Perhaps you need to find another blog. Happy trails.=

    Rich, you do know that was one of the faux Anons, right?


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