SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Poll: President winning by 16 points here

Wednesday, Oct 31, 2012

* We Ask America decided to do a poll of likely Illinois voters for the presidential race

There’s been a surprising amount of conjecture coming our way lately about the possibility of Mitt Romney inching closer to Barack Obama in Illinois. We’ve not paid much attention to that conjecture until it started to be uttered in some national circles and a handful of reporters we respect called to ask if there was anything to it.

* Turns out, there’s nothing to it. President Obama leads Gov. Romney 57-41, with 2 points going to an unnamed third party candidate. Click for a better view of regional crosstabs

* Back to the pollster

For those of you uninitiated in the Illinois political scene — outside of following the hijinks of our politicians in Popular Prison Monthly — Chicago and Suburban Cook County each account for about 20% of the vote in the Land of Lincoln. No matter how well Romney does in the five suburban “collar counties” or downstate (the rest of Illinois outside of Chicago, Suburban Cook & the Collars), the huge hunk of burning love that his home base provides the president simply cannot be toppled. Some of our projections include turnout scenarios that put Romney as close as 10 points from the lead, but there is no way that Chicagoland is going to abandon its Favorite Son.

Discuss.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


41 Comments
  1. - Tom Joad - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 9:22 am:

    Romney has been trying to convince the press that he has momentum leading into election day. He has enough money, or superpac funds do, to buy ads in Minnesota and Wisconsin. Some National press has bought into this senario, and it has spilled into Illinois. Thethird debate and Hurricane Sandy put a stop to the momentum if their was any. The race has been tighting in the final days as they always do, thats all.


  2. - Downstater - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 9:31 am:

    Major variation between Cook/collar & downstate. Recent polls have been reflecting downstate moreso than Chicago. Chicago is not the US. The momentum is real.


  3. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 9:37 am:

    The Illinois conjecture was silly to begin with.

    The last GOP presidential candidate to win Illinois was HW with just over 50% against Dukakis in 1988.

    The best GOP showing since then was W with 45% in 2004.

    McCain got 38% in 2008.


  4. - hisgirlfriday - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 9:37 am:

    I’m sorry, but since when is Chicago not the U.S.?
    Just because Chicagoans don’t vote Republican doesn’t mean they are Canadians are something.

    But your post does reflect why Obama will not do as well Downstate as he did in 2008 because Obama is viewed by many resentful Downstaters not as an Illinoisan favorite son of the whole state but as just another Chicago Democrat.


  5. - ZC - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 9:37 am:

    Anyone claiming this race is trending Mitt needs to take a serious look at the last-minute auto ads Romney is airing in Ohio, ads that have been basically condemned across the media spectrum as pushing the envelope for dishonesty.

    Those ads look like a last Hail Mary pass by Romney-Ryan to me. They’re not the kind of ads you close on, if you think Ohio is safely trending your way.


  6. - western illinois - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 9:43 am:

    http://www.galesburg.com/news/x470412869/Poll-Galesburg-favors-Obama

    Leads by 30 in Galesburg


  7. - Robo - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 9:44 am:

    Agree with Downstater. IL has been in the Obama column so long it has become irrelevant to gauging presidential race. Might as well have UT numbers gauge Obama’s momentum. Final poll coming next week!!!


  8. - SAP - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 9:48 am:

    Obama’s downstate numbers matter only in down-ballot contests. He may not have coattails past Cook County, but he is in no danger of losing Illinois.


  9. - Small Town Liberal - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 9:48 am:

    - IL has been in the Obama column so long it has become irrelevant to gauging presidential race. -

    I don’t think that’s the point of Rich’s post. I think the point is more about how this will impact Illinois congressional and state legislative races.


  10. - amalia - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 9:50 am:

    @hisgirlfriday, right on! though at least the post did not called those from “Chicago” socialists…..

    funny that those from downstate would support a corporatist.


  11. - Downstater - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 9:52 am:

    Was just saying that Chicago does not reflect the entire US in response to Tom’s comment that Romney’s momentum has been stopped. Why would my post reflect resentment? My point is that downstate is closer to the national trend than Chicago.


  12. - Cook County Republican - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 9:53 am:

    I’m sure all the ghost voters will be out in force come election day. Illinois isn’t the United States, Obama will be upset.


  13. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 9:57 am:

    –Illinois isn’t the United States,–

    Then neither is California, New York, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, Vermont, Maine, Connecticut, Rhode Island, etc.

    I guess by that logic, the “real” United States can only be found in places like Texas, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, etc.

    Funny, back in the day, they didn’t want to be IN the United States.


  14. - The Captain - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 9:58 am:

    What is this math, are you a wizard?


  15. - Cook County Republican - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 10:00 am:

    Then enjoy following Obama over the cliff.


  16. - RNUG - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 10:05 am:

    I predict at the State level it’ll be just like Quinn’s election with the same two corners solidly Democratic, and a lot of the rest of the State going slightly GOP (most counties) to solidly GOP (a few counties) … except this time the winning margins here will be wider for the Dems.

    The question isn’t so much about Obama’s coattails as it is about Romney’s. Even in the GOP national landslide in 2010, the Illinois candidates didn’t hardly benefit. If downstate GOP’s are motivated to GOTV for Romney, then there might be some coattails for the rest of the ticket … but I wouldn’t bet on it. About the only bet I would put money on right now is that Menard County will be solidly GOP.


  17. - CircularFiringSquad - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 10:12 am:

    Stunning that the vaunted Gags Brady 3 gazillion phone calls can only get Mitt Plummer-Romney 51% downstate….can someone explain that one?
    BTW could it Gags made the calls, but did not call IL voters?
    Fire,Aim,Ready!


  18. - PollWatcher - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 10:20 am:

    They way oversampled Democrats in the downstate sample. No way Obama does better there than in the collars. Not. Gonna. Happen. He’ll be lucky to reach 40% downstate, but obviously he’ll still win the state as a whole.


  19. - Cheryl44 - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 10:30 am:

    Anything thinking this election is trending toward Romney missed Governor Christie throwing Mitt under the bus.


  20. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 10:53 am:

    Wait, the majority of you think that IL disposing of the electoral college is a good thing, but I guess IL is going to vote Romney after all. Ah, the consequences of asinine legislation! The foolish legislature voted to follow the popular vote across the US, but then that was because there was no way that a Republican could ever win the popular vote. This state is governed by a pack of fools, yes it starts in Chicago!


  21. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 10:55 am:

    ===The foolish legislature voted to follow the popular vote across the US===

    Um, no. That bill requires lots of other states to do so as well before it becomes effective. And you’re pretty hazy on the bill’s facts as well.

    Perhaps you need to find another blog. Happy trails.


  22. - train111 - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 11:05 am:

    Given that Obama has 44% in the collars compared to Quinn’s 39.27% and 46% downstate compared to Quinn’s 34.18%, I’d say the Dems are going to fare a bit better than 2 years ago.

    train111


  23. - Responsa - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 11:06 am:

    ==missed Governor Christie throwing Mitt under the bus.==

    I must have missed that. Unless you are referring to Gov. Christie and President Obama putting on a united front for the benefit of the devastated people of New Jersey and commiting to work in a non-partisan and complementary way to coordinate the State and Federal response.
    Isn’t that sort of respect and working across the aisle what people always say they want?


  24. - just sayin' - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 11:14 am:

    Anyone who actually thought Romney had a chance in Illinois should not quit their day job.


  25. - ZC - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 11:32 am:

    Again, Cook County is about 1/3 of the state’s vote. (1/6 Chicago, 1/6 collars). Collar counties around DuPage another 1/3. Rest of state = 1/3.

    So yes, Cook is essential, but don’t discount that 44% of the collars and _forty six percent_ of “Downstate” for Obama.

    Obama’s got plenty of support statewide. Any simplistic upstate / Downstate division just is not supported by Rich’s crosstabs above.


  26. - Capitol View - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 11:32 am:

    one theory for the Romney “surge” in Democratic states is the myth that the Jewish community will flip over to Romney due to President Obama not getting along with Israel govt. leader Bibi.

    The reality is that the American Jewish community supports the State of Israel, not necessarily any current government of Israel. I happen to be Jewish, and I strongly support Israeli security while I have little use for Bibi and even less for his Foreign Minister, Avigar Lieberman.

    As usual, the political pundits underestimate and oversimplify the political interests of the American Jewish community.


  27. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 11:39 am:

    Gov. Christie has spent three days praising Obama on all networks, including Fox.

    Gov. Romney has dodged questions about FEMA and suggestions during the primary debates that disaster relief should be turned over to the states or for-profit private sector.

    Meanwhile, Ol’ Brownie is back, doing a heckuva job criticizing Obama for acting too soon in preparing for Sandy. Let that one sink in a little bit.

    You can’t make this stuff up.


  28. - Small Town Liberal - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 11:46 am:

    - Meanwhile, Ol’ Brownie is back, doing a heckuva job criticizing Obama for acting too soon in preparing for Sandy. Let that one sink in a little bit. -

    Sadly I’ve already heard that line regurgitated by a true believer. Unreal.


  29. - Arthur Andersen - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 11:52 am:

    Word, I thought I heard something wrong the first time “Brownie” was on teevee. Nope. Incredible, eh?


  30. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 11:58 am:

    AA, I’m amazed the dude would even do interviews on disaster relief preparation.


  31. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 12:05 pm:

    I realize that the requirements were that the country has to adopt, but that was not the point of the post. The point was the your beloved Obama would not get this state’s votes if the law became reality. The outcry would be extremely loud by many of the commenters on this site, including you, if that would be the case. But I realize that you are not totally unbiased, much like your posting about the pensions that are going to break this state.


  32. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 12:11 pm:

    ===The point was the your beloved Obama would not get this state’s votes if the law became reality===

    First of all, bite me.

    Secondly, do you even know what you’re saying? He wouldn’t get Illinois’ votes if he lost the national popular vote. But if and only if the law is also passed by other states.


  33. - 3rd Generation Chicago Native - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 12:49 pm:

    Wordslinger, I missed Christie on Fox, did the reporter turn grey who was covering this?


  34. - Emily Booth - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 2:37 pm:

    Just keep replaying all those Republican rape quotes. Women are going to decide this year’s presidential race. Angry women.


  35. - walkinfool - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 3:31 pm:

    No reason that the suburban Cook County Republicans cannot take big chunks of voters and eventually win. Perhaps they should split out and focus specifically on that task with fundraising, events, staff, candidate recruiting, national support, etc. separate from Chicago. No reason for them to be as weak as they are in that geography.


  36. - amalia - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 4:10 pm:

    watched Christie with the President on Fox a few minutes ago and Obama was masterful in explaining everything that he was ordering and organizing. it was amazing. he even channeled Christie in the “told people to get the hell out,” vein. Cavuto said everyone should put aside the “crap” that Christie should not be doing this, oh, and Obama too. Fox viewers must have been jumping from their chairs at the sight!!!


  37. - NoBama - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 5:18 pm:

    Why wouldn’t Illinois support the most inept President since Jimmy Carter, whose only political experience is from the most screwed up state in the Union and rankes near the bottom in every category. Perfect match!


  38. - I M Willis - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 6:17 pm:

    If Obama couldn’t carry Illinois than he probably couldn’t carry any state or even D.C. I don’t see what all the flapping is about. I do like NoBama’s comment though - well said.


  39. - J - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 6:21 pm:

    82% Chicago, that’s about the right percent of people up there that live on government handouts.


  40. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 6:25 pm:

    Three Big Brain comments in a row. I thought trick-or-treating went to 7.


  41. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 11:45 pm:

    =Perhaps you need to find another blog. Happy trails.=

    Rich, you do know that was one of the faux Anons, right?


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* I'm not buying it
* Sick day
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * iPhone 6 sales, Windows 9 event, Moto X preorders & more – Pocketnow Daily
        * Panasonic Lumix CM1 is a smartphone and a real camera in one
        * Apple approves a $1000 app that lets the iPhone 5s shoot 4K video, sort of
        * Oppo N3 event teased for October; leaked renders are hot
        * Motorola gives Moto X discount for users with .edu email
        * PayPal Launches Ad Subtly Attacking Apple for Recent iCloud Photo Leak
        * Tim Cook Holds Firm On iMessage Security: It’s Encrypted, And We Don’t Have A Key

        * DARPA Tests Out Planes Mounted With Laser Turret
        * Miss Georgia Wears 3D Printed Custom Heels
        * Roku Sells 10 Million Streaming Video Boxes
        * Donkey Kong Country Gets The Doom Treatment
        * Construction Firm Uses Doom Engine To Design Rooms
        * Super Smash Bros. 3DS Action Too Intense For The Hardware?
        * Strati 3D Printed Electric Car

        * Royals 4, White Sox 3: Defense, bullpen astound again
        * White Sox likely to stay with six-man rotation
        * Konerko moving toward return during road trip
        * Abreu learns from Konerko's professionalism
        * Reading Room: Jose Abreu ties a White Sox rookie record his way
        * Twins 6, White Sox 4: Sweep hopes evaporate early
        * Danks looks to finish rough second half on high note vs. Royals


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        September 2014
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * Gov. Quinn keeps animal abuser on state payroll.....
        * Governor Quinn, clean house..
        * Governor candidates focus on business, hiring..
        * Miller: Money talking in state races..
        * Report: Wage Theft Costs U.S. Workers Billions .....
        * Randolph County Board approves poker run ordinance..
        * Rauner’s call for firings of ‘illegal patronage.....


        * Quinn: Monitor not needed to oversee state hiring
        * Man convicted in girl's death during 2011 burglary
        * Students sickened, carbon monoxide leak suspected
        * Governor candidates focus on business, hiring
        * 2nd year of Illinois osprey project wraps up
        * Durbin's views on issues as he faces re-election
        * AP Interview: Durbin denies 'bullying' businesses
        * Carbon monoxide suspected in student illnesses
        * Springfield cemetery restoring Abe Lincoln's vault
        * Peoria cricket group attracts Indian immigrants

        * Rauner’s call for firings of ‘illegal patronage hires’ would affect many in Springfield
        * Quinn, Rauner clash on business, hiring
        * Coaltion forms to push school funding reform
        * Rauner’s education plan raises eyebrows
        * Governor’s race a tale of business climates
        * Medical marijuana law sponsor defends secret bids
        * Fired IDOT workers sue, say they are ‘political cover’ for Quinn
        * Illinois still employs 173 'improper' state hires
        * Fired IDOT workers sue, say they are 'political cover' for Quinn
        * State lawmakers propose surcharge to pay for police body cameras

        * Lampert agrees to lend Sears $400 million
        * United offers up to $100,000 if workers leave
        * U of C, UIC among finalists for Obama library
        * Sen. Durbin denies 'bullying' business
        * Mike Madigan pulls in $358,000 — in one weekend


        * Hundreds pay homage at slain Merrillville officer’s funeral
        * Jury finds man guilty of killing girl in Indian Head Park
        * Gold Coast boutique hit by burglars
        * Gov’t should  renegotiate  FBI building lease
        * 9/11 survivor recalls in Chicago speech harrowing moments
        * Mourners struggle with Indiana officer’s death; funeral is Monday


        * Riot Fest cleanup begins
        * Slain Merrillville Officer Nick Schultz honored
        * Guilty verdict in slaying of 14-year-old stabbed in her home in Indian Head Park
        * Illinois Supreme Court disbars, censures lawyers
        * Naperville man contracts West Nile virus
        * Man charged with trying to kill police officer
        * Pedestrian killed in crash involving Wheeling officer, 'wanted to succeed...help our family'
        * Trial set for cop charged in woman's death
        * Handyman who took guinea pig gets probation for trespassing
        * Uptown homicide fuels concerns over gang violence


        * Schools CEO: privatizing janitorial services not 'as smooth as we would like'
        * What's The Best Way To Help Kids In Struggling Schools?
        * Quinn Defends Public Education, Though He's A Product of Private Schools
        * Local Response To Ferguson
        * AFSCME Puts Aside Differences, Endorses Quinn
        * The Future Of Downtown Springfield Inc. In Jeopardy
        * A Practice In Poverty
        * Treasurer Candidate Tom Cross Says He Would Sue The Legislature To Force A Balanced Budget
        * Fired IDOT Workers Sue Quinn Administration
        * Inspector's Report Reveals Clout Hiring At IDOT


        * Rauner’s call for firings of ‘illegal patronage hires’ would affect many in Springfield
        * Another view: New law might boost clothing recycling
        * John Freml: Bishop Paprocki does not speak for all Catholics
        * Quinn, Rauner clash on business, hiring
        * Becker Family: Our community is better united
        * Coaltion forms to push school funding reform
        * Rauner’s education plan raises eyebrows
        * Our Opinion: It’s time to get serious about sewers in Springfield
        * Bernard Schoenburg: Be careful when they talk of property taxes
        * Charles Krauthammer: Obama’s uncertain trumpet, again


        * Volleyball falls to No. 16 nationally
        * Coach speak: Beckman on injuries, 'grading out'
        * School board, city pass resolutions opposing St. Elizabeth's move
        * Democrats committee select Bustos for sheriff's nominee on ballot
        * Belleville District 201 school board approves $1.38 million loan for artificial turf project
        * A gift from the heart
        * HS Volleyball: PBL vs. Tuscola
        * Police reports
        * Gifford trustees discuss construction complaints
        * Sparta to hold derby race


        * Royals rally to beat White Sox in 9th
        * One person injured in Elgin house explosion
        * Eagles rally to beat Colts 30-27
        * St. Charles leaders urge tighter rules on e-cigs, massage parlors
        * Rongey: White Sox' future looking bright

        * US Rep. Lipinski accepting service academy...
        * Rep. Lipinski Accepting Service Academy Ap...
        * Dem Explains Why He Voted 'Present' on DAC...
        * Immigration dominates Lipinski's town hall...
        * Rep. Lipinski Announces New Federal Fundin...
        * News briefs: Lipinski accepting service ac...
        * US Rep. Lipinski accepting service academy...
        * Rep. Lipinski Accepting Service Academy Ap...
        * Dem Explains Why He Voted 'Present' on DAC...
        * Immigration dominates Lipinski's town hall...

        * Durbin denies ‘bullying’ businesses...
        * Poll: Durbin Leading Oberweis By 23 Points...
        * Poll: Durbin Leading Oberweis By 23 Points...
        * Poll: Durbin Leading Oberweis By 23 Points...
        * Poll: Durbin Leading Oberweis By 23 Points...

        * ISIS fight: Congress to vote on arming Syr......
        * Op-Ed: Mark Kirk has more to fear than Mic......

        * Richard Skoda’s dreams.
        * Anita Alvarez's husband investigated for tax exemptions
        * Durbin abruptly cuts off interview with hometown TV station
        * U.S. Senate Moves Forward With Paycheck Fairness Act
        * Senate Republicans Quash Citizens United Amendment
        * Illinois Education Association Endorses Schneider
        * Report: Wage Theft Costs U.S. Workers Billions Of Dollars Annually (UPDATED)
        * UPDATE x1: New Rauner Ad: "No Social Agenda" Means Pro-Abortion and Pro Gay Marriage
        * Chicago Magazine asks: "Will the Real Bruce Rauner Please Stand Up?"
        * Quinn Leading Rauner In New Poll


        * Rauner renews call for Quinn to fire illegal patronage hires
        * Public Betrayal: The Quinn Patronage Scandal Unfolds
        * Sun-Times Report: In Illegal Hiring Scandal, Pat Quinn Protects “Kingmaker” Kin
        * Governor Quinn Announces Clean Water Investments in Stickney and Burbank - Projects Will Modernize Infrastructure, Combat Damaging Floods and Create Jobs
        * Governor Quinn Honors “Latinos Building Illinois” - Thompson Center Exhibit Showcases Trailblazers For Latino Heritage Month




            Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller