SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Poll: President winning by 16 points here

Wednesday, Oct 31, 2012

* We Ask America decided to do a poll of likely Illinois voters for the presidential race

There’s been a surprising amount of conjecture coming our way lately about the possibility of Mitt Romney inching closer to Barack Obama in Illinois. We’ve not paid much attention to that conjecture until it started to be uttered in some national circles and a handful of reporters we respect called to ask if there was anything to it.

* Turns out, there’s nothing to it. President Obama leads Gov. Romney 57-41, with 2 points going to an unnamed third party candidate. Click for a better view of regional crosstabs

* Back to the pollster

For those of you uninitiated in the Illinois political scene — outside of following the hijinks of our politicians in Popular Prison Monthly — Chicago and Suburban Cook County each account for about 20% of the vote in the Land of Lincoln. No matter how well Romney does in the five suburban “collar counties” or downstate (the rest of Illinois outside of Chicago, Suburban Cook & the Collars), the huge hunk of burning love that his home base provides the president simply cannot be toppled. Some of our projections include turnout scenarios that put Romney as close as 10 points from the lead, but there is no way that Chicagoland is going to abandon its Favorite Son.

Discuss.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


41 Comments
  1. - Tom Joad - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 9:22 am:

    Romney has been trying to convince the press that he has momentum leading into election day. He has enough money, or superpac funds do, to buy ads in Minnesota and Wisconsin. Some National press has bought into this senario, and it has spilled into Illinois. Thethird debate and Hurricane Sandy put a stop to the momentum if their was any. The race has been tighting in the final days as they always do, thats all.


  2. - Downstater - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 9:31 am:

    Major variation between Cook/collar & downstate. Recent polls have been reflecting downstate moreso than Chicago. Chicago is not the US. The momentum is real.


  3. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 9:37 am:

    The Illinois conjecture was silly to begin with.

    The last GOP presidential candidate to win Illinois was HW with just over 50% against Dukakis in 1988.

    The best GOP showing since then was W with 45% in 2004.

    McCain got 38% in 2008.


  4. - hisgirlfriday - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 9:37 am:

    I’m sorry, but since when is Chicago not the U.S.?
    Just because Chicagoans don’t vote Republican doesn’t mean they are Canadians are something.

    But your post does reflect why Obama will not do as well Downstate as he did in 2008 because Obama is viewed by many resentful Downstaters not as an Illinoisan favorite son of the whole state but as just another Chicago Democrat.


  5. - ZC - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 9:37 am:

    Anyone claiming this race is trending Mitt needs to take a serious look at the last-minute auto ads Romney is airing in Ohio, ads that have been basically condemned across the media spectrum as pushing the envelope for dishonesty.

    Those ads look like a last Hail Mary pass by Romney-Ryan to me. They’re not the kind of ads you close on, if you think Ohio is safely trending your way.


  6. - western illinois - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 9:43 am:

    http://www.galesburg.com/news/x470412869/Poll-Galesburg-favors-Obama

    Leads by 30 in Galesburg


  7. - Robo - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 9:44 am:

    Agree with Downstater. IL has been in the Obama column so long it has become irrelevant to gauging presidential race. Might as well have UT numbers gauge Obama’s momentum. Final poll coming next week!!!


  8. - SAP - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 9:48 am:

    Obama’s downstate numbers matter only in down-ballot contests. He may not have coattails past Cook County, but he is in no danger of losing Illinois.


  9. - Small Town Liberal - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 9:48 am:

    - IL has been in the Obama column so long it has become irrelevant to gauging presidential race. -

    I don’t think that’s the point of Rich’s post. I think the point is more about how this will impact Illinois congressional and state legislative races.


  10. - amalia - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 9:50 am:

    @hisgirlfriday, right on! though at least the post did not called those from “Chicago” socialists…..

    funny that those from downstate would support a corporatist.


  11. - Downstater - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 9:52 am:

    Was just saying that Chicago does not reflect the entire US in response to Tom’s comment that Romney’s momentum has been stopped. Why would my post reflect resentment? My point is that downstate is closer to the national trend than Chicago.


  12. - Cook County Republican - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 9:53 am:

    I’m sure all the ghost voters will be out in force come election day. Illinois isn’t the United States, Obama will be upset.


  13. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 9:57 am:

    –Illinois isn’t the United States,–

    Then neither is California, New York, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, Vermont, Maine, Connecticut, Rhode Island, etc.

    I guess by that logic, the “real” United States can only be found in places like Texas, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, etc.

    Funny, back in the day, they didn’t want to be IN the United States.


  14. - The Captain - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 9:58 am:

    What is this math, are you a wizard?


  15. - Cook County Republican - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 10:00 am:

    Then enjoy following Obama over the cliff.


  16. - RNUG - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 10:05 am:

    I predict at the State level it’ll be just like Quinn’s election with the same two corners solidly Democratic, and a lot of the rest of the State going slightly GOP (most counties) to solidly GOP (a few counties) … except this time the winning margins here will be wider for the Dems.

    The question isn’t so much about Obama’s coattails as it is about Romney’s. Even in the GOP national landslide in 2010, the Illinois candidates didn’t hardly benefit. If downstate GOP’s are motivated to GOTV for Romney, then there might be some coattails for the rest of the ticket … but I wouldn’t bet on it. About the only bet I would put money on right now is that Menard County will be solidly GOP.


  17. - CircularFiringSquad - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 10:12 am:

    Stunning that the vaunted Gags Brady 3 gazillion phone calls can only get Mitt Plummer-Romney 51% downstate….can someone explain that one?
    BTW could it Gags made the calls, but did not call IL voters?
    Fire,Aim,Ready!


  18. - PollWatcher - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 10:20 am:

    They way oversampled Democrats in the downstate sample. No way Obama does better there than in the collars. Not. Gonna. Happen. He’ll be lucky to reach 40% downstate, but obviously he’ll still win the state as a whole.


  19. - Cheryl44 - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 10:30 am:

    Anything thinking this election is trending toward Romney missed Governor Christie throwing Mitt under the bus.


  20. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 10:53 am:

    Wait, the majority of you think that IL disposing of the electoral college is a good thing, but I guess IL is going to vote Romney after all. Ah, the consequences of asinine legislation! The foolish legislature voted to follow the popular vote across the US, but then that was because there was no way that a Republican could ever win the popular vote. This state is governed by a pack of fools, yes it starts in Chicago!


  21. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 10:55 am:

    ===The foolish legislature voted to follow the popular vote across the US===

    Um, no. That bill requires lots of other states to do so as well before it becomes effective. And you’re pretty hazy on the bill’s facts as well.

    Perhaps you need to find another blog. Happy trails.


  22. - train111 - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 11:05 am:

    Given that Obama has 44% in the collars compared to Quinn’s 39.27% and 46% downstate compared to Quinn’s 34.18%, I’d say the Dems are going to fare a bit better than 2 years ago.

    train111


  23. - Responsa - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 11:06 am:

    ==missed Governor Christie throwing Mitt under the bus.==

    I must have missed that. Unless you are referring to Gov. Christie and President Obama putting on a united front for the benefit of the devastated people of New Jersey and commiting to work in a non-partisan and complementary way to coordinate the State and Federal response.
    Isn’t that sort of respect and working across the aisle what people always say they want?


  24. - just sayin' - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 11:14 am:

    Anyone who actually thought Romney had a chance in Illinois should not quit their day job.


  25. - ZC - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 11:32 am:

    Again, Cook County is about 1/3 of the state’s vote. (1/6 Chicago, 1/6 collars). Collar counties around DuPage another 1/3. Rest of state = 1/3.

    So yes, Cook is essential, but don’t discount that 44% of the collars and _forty six percent_ of “Downstate” for Obama.

    Obama’s got plenty of support statewide. Any simplistic upstate / Downstate division just is not supported by Rich’s crosstabs above.


  26. - Capitol View - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 11:32 am:

    one theory for the Romney “surge” in Democratic states is the myth that the Jewish community will flip over to Romney due to President Obama not getting along with Israel govt. leader Bibi.

    The reality is that the American Jewish community supports the State of Israel, not necessarily any current government of Israel. I happen to be Jewish, and I strongly support Israeli security while I have little use for Bibi and even less for his Foreign Minister, Avigar Lieberman.

    As usual, the political pundits underestimate and oversimplify the political interests of the American Jewish community.


  27. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 11:39 am:

    Gov. Christie has spent three days praising Obama on all networks, including Fox.

    Gov. Romney has dodged questions about FEMA and suggestions during the primary debates that disaster relief should be turned over to the states or for-profit private sector.

    Meanwhile, Ol’ Brownie is back, doing a heckuva job criticizing Obama for acting too soon in preparing for Sandy. Let that one sink in a little bit.

    You can’t make this stuff up.


  28. - Small Town Liberal - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 11:46 am:

    - Meanwhile, Ol’ Brownie is back, doing a heckuva job criticizing Obama for acting too soon in preparing for Sandy. Let that one sink in a little bit. -

    Sadly I’ve already heard that line regurgitated by a true believer. Unreal.


  29. - Arthur Andersen - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 11:52 am:

    Word, I thought I heard something wrong the first time “Brownie” was on teevee. Nope. Incredible, eh?


  30. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 11:58 am:

    AA, I’m amazed the dude would even do interviews on disaster relief preparation.


  31. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 12:05 pm:

    I realize that the requirements were that the country has to adopt, but that was not the point of the post. The point was the your beloved Obama would not get this state’s votes if the law became reality. The outcry would be extremely loud by many of the commenters on this site, including you, if that would be the case. But I realize that you are not totally unbiased, much like your posting about the pensions that are going to break this state.


  32. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 12:11 pm:

    ===The point was the your beloved Obama would not get this state’s votes if the law became reality===

    First of all, bite me.

    Secondly, do you even know what you’re saying? He wouldn’t get Illinois’ votes if he lost the national popular vote. But if and only if the law is also passed by other states.


  33. - 3rd Generation Chicago Native - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 12:49 pm:

    Wordslinger, I missed Christie on Fox, did the reporter turn grey who was covering this?


  34. - Emily Booth - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 2:37 pm:

    Just keep replaying all those Republican rape quotes. Women are going to decide this year’s presidential race. Angry women.


  35. - walkinfool - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 3:31 pm:

    No reason that the suburban Cook County Republicans cannot take big chunks of voters and eventually win. Perhaps they should split out and focus specifically on that task with fundraising, events, staff, candidate recruiting, national support, etc. separate from Chicago. No reason for them to be as weak as they are in that geography.


  36. - amalia - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 4:10 pm:

    watched Christie with the President on Fox a few minutes ago and Obama was masterful in explaining everything that he was ordering and organizing. it was amazing. he even channeled Christie in the “told people to get the hell out,” vein. Cavuto said everyone should put aside the “crap” that Christie should not be doing this, oh, and Obama too. Fox viewers must have been jumping from their chairs at the sight!!!


  37. - NoBama - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 5:18 pm:

    Why wouldn’t Illinois support the most inept President since Jimmy Carter, whose only political experience is from the most screwed up state in the Union and rankes near the bottom in every category. Perfect match!


  38. - I M Willis - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 6:17 pm:

    If Obama couldn’t carry Illinois than he probably couldn’t carry any state or even D.C. I don’t see what all the flapping is about. I do like NoBama’s comment though - well said.


  39. - J - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 6:21 pm:

    82% Chicago, that’s about the right percent of people up there that live on government handouts.


  40. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 6:25 pm:

    Three Big Brain comments in a row. I thought trick-or-treating went to 7.


  41. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Oct 31, 12 @ 11:45 pm:

    =Perhaps you need to find another blog. Happy trails.=

    Rich, you do know that was one of the faux Anons, right?


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* State ordered to pay providers for pregnant women, infants and children
* Club for Growth runs McCarter ad
* Because... Madigan!
* NFIB member poll: 88 percent want Rauner to keep pushing Turnaround Agenda
* AFSCME advances bill that Rauner admin says "we cannot afford"
* Kim Foxx launches first TV ad "Amen"
* 2nd Annual "Cocktails with Capitol Fax"
* Has a "new" counter-point to the Tribune emerged?
* Credit Unions Assist At Risk Youth
* Question of the day
* Why I fight
* Parsons scores rare and highly unusual Obama interview
* Dunkin's defense
* Civic Federation wants spending limits and tax hikes: "There are no easy stop-gap fixes"
* *** LIVE SESSION COVERAGE ***
* "Mike Madigan's favorite state Senator"
* #Winning!
* In the spirit of the times...
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

  
* Bluetooth SIG releases Internet Gateway Smart Starter Kit for IoT
* Future Microsoft wearables may offer live food nutrition information
* Asus ZenFone Zoom real camera review: attack of the zoom? (Video)
* Google Play Music All Access passes go half off for Valentine’s Day
* Google+ scores an Android app update focused on faster and safer browsing
* It’s on now: class action suit filed against Apple on Error 53 negligence claims
* Benchmarks detail minor Samsung Galaxy Tab S2 upgrades

* White Sox reportedly considering Desmond
* Lefty-heavy rotation not a concern
* Melky: White Sox must play like family to contend
* White Sox remodel in big way this offseason
* White Sox ink Ishikawa to Minor League deal
* White Sox sign righty Latos to 1-year deal
* White Sox sign Mat Latos for one year, $3 million

...............


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress

Loading


* Brawl over high-stakes bargaining bill resumes .....
* Editorial: Illinois needs to get its funding on.....
* House Resurrects Arbitration Bill - Alton Daily.....


* EXCHANGE: Richwoods swim team includes 4 sets of brothers
* Man wanted in Chicago area home invasion arrested in Mexico
* Lawyer may use insanity defense for mom accused in slaying
* Children's museum planners seek funding with public events
* Illinois gets extension to determine flooding damage
* SAT to replace ACT as college entrance exam in Illinois
* School security guard accused of sexually assaulting student
* AP Interview: Police shooting spurs state agency changes
* Illinois News Digest
* Illinois residents weigh in on proposed coal mine expansion

* $45M and counting for $315M rail consolidation project
* Lawmakers making second attempt to send AFSCME talks to arbitrator
* President Obama returns to his political roots, connects with past friends, supporters
* Bill aims to create foundation to raise private money for state fairgrounds
* Obama returns to his political roots, connects with past friends, supporters
* Presidential visit notebook: Obama doesn't like horseshoes?
* District 186 misses out on construction bond program
* Vehicle emissions test notices suspended amid budget impasse
* Rauner: Bureaucracy is holding Illinois back
* Peoria's Par-A-Dice casino laying off 40, cites impact of video gaming

* What chefs eat for lunch
* An Aussie in strange land
* Best New Restaurants for Business 2016
* Chicago-area auto plants boomed in 2015. Can they keep it up?
* Chicago is risking too much by abetting the United-American duopoly at O'Hare


* Dear Abby: To wife’s chagrin, he sees his kids at ex’s home
* Georgia Nicols horoscopes for Feb. 12
* Clinton, Sanders clash over minorities, money — and Obama
* Stars score early and often, close in on first-place Blackhawks
* Sneed: Hillary making time for her buddies on visit to Chicago
* Sneed: Hillary making time for her gal pals in visit to Chicago
* Sweet: Kirk backers inject Rahm in U.S. Senate race
* Watch the Patrick Sharp tribute video shown at tonight’s Blackhawks game
* Patrick Sharp reaches milestone against Blackhawks
* Patrick Eaves has a hat trick after one period against the Blackhawks


* 1 dead, 5 others hurt in shootings on West, South sides
* 2 CTA workers hurt during Yellow Line derailment
* Witness: Indianapolis man promised $10K for home explosion
* St. Alphonsus Liguori school to stay open after meeting funding, enrollment targets
* Chicago task force on police reform hears from residents
* Woman federally charged after escaping state charges in Endia Martin case
* Woman bilked Naperville man in 'arranged marriage' scam, police say
* Crest Hill man gets 39-year sentence for stomping wife to death
* Murder-suicide 911 call: 'Oh God! We better call'
* Illinois Youth Soccer bans heading for players 10 and younger


* $45M and counting for $315M rail consolidation project
* Lawmakers making second attempt to send AFSCME talks to arbitrator
* President Obama returns to his political roots, connects with past friends, supporters
* Our View: Illinois officials should heed Obama's call for civility, compromise
* Bill aims to create foundation to raise private money for state fairgrounds
* Bernard Schoenburg: State GOP past $250,000 in support for Rep. Avery Bourne
* Eugene Robinson: Rubio's revealing loop
* Derrik Gay: Reducing fossil fuel dependence aids U.S. troops
* George F. Will: Break the teeth-whitening monopoly
* Obama returns to his political roots, connects with past friends, supporters


* Class 2A girls' roundup: SJ-O, Tuscola, others advance
* Thursday's highlights: Danville girls top Rantoul
* LeRoy, Schlarman girls win 1A regional crowns
* Ferguson among ex-Illini going to NFL combine
* Asmussen's Hoop It Up: Creighton steals spotlight
* Cissna Park survives late Storm surge
* Four UI softball storylines as season gets underway
* Perry adapting to Rivera's absence on diamond
* Tate: These programs aren't too classy
* 'Historical moment' burdened by history


* Dawn Patrol: St. Alphonsus saved; Auto Show
* Family of man killed in drunken Oak Brook joy ride seeks mercy for driver
* No. 25 Tennessee women beat Vanderbilt 69-51
* Cal hires Spavital as offensive coordinator
* Bergeron scores twice and Bruins beat Jets 6-2

* House lawmakers overcome hurdle on key tra...
* Rodney Davis talks funding with Bloomingto...
* The agency that fought Illiana gets a new ...
* Rep. Dold takes educational cruise down Ch...
* Lawmakers decry high turnover rate of VA h...
* CBD Oil, and politics
* Simon considering state Senate bid
* Killer Congressman Tom MacArthur trying to...
* Shutdown? State may not notice
* Rep. Bob Dold

* Lawmakers urge federal agency to build cam......
* Lawmakers urge federal agency to build cam......

* Lawmakers urge federal agency to build cam......
* Ward Room's Race to Watch: Illinois Senate......

* “The Driver’s Side” – News From The Motorist’s Perspective
* State Stops Sending Emissions Testing Reminders To Drivers
* Urlacher on the Concept
* One Week Left In Library Amnesty
* Foxx wants us to not look behind the curtain w/ Preckwinkle standing behind
* Explaining collective bargaining.
* The GOP moderate. His candidacy should terrify you.
* Cook County Clerk David Orr At Youth Voter Registration Event
* Clinton Gets Backing Of Congressional Black Caucus PAC
* President Obama Visits Springfield Urging Lawmakers To Compromise


* Emergency Management Officials, National Weather Service Encourage Winter Preparedness - November is Winter Weather Preparedness Month in Illinois
* Keep Your Family Safe This Winter - November through February are leading months for carbon monoxide related incidents
* Governor Takes Bill Action
* Illinois Department of Labor Director Hugo Chaviano Awards Governor’s Award for Contributions in Health and Safety to the Illinois Refining Division of Marathon Petroleum Company LP
* State Regulator Elected Treasurer of Interstate Medical Licensure Compact




Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller