SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Question of the day

Tuesday, Feb 26, 2013

* Your predictions, please?…

1) 2nd Congressional District results

2) Concealed carry in the GA

3) Gay marriage in the House

Please try to answer all three and explain your answers. Thanks!

- Posted by Rich Miller        


30 Comments
  1. - Hacks - Tuesday, Feb 26, 13 @ 12:24 pm:

    Halvorson - Black vote will be split.
    Concealed carry won’t get far in Illinois.
    Gays will be just as miserable as straights.


  2. - 47th Ward - Tuesday, Feb 26, 13 @ 12:27 pm:

    Kelly with a comfortable margin.

    There will be a CC law passed, but nothing conclusive will come out of the House today.

    Gay marriage will eventually pass the House this session.

    As for an explanation: the political winds are blowing and each of these represents a continuation of recent trends. Polling shows Kelly with momentum, even with a low turnout primary in the middle of a snowstorm.

    Some form of CC has to be passed by court order, so something will become law. It just won’t be what Phelps and ISRA were hoping for. There will be more restrictions than they’d prefer. That’s a continuation of the post-Sandy Hook trend of popular support for common sense gun control.

    Finally, the gay marriage vote continues a global trend on this issue. There is no going back.


  3. - Chicago Cynic - Tuesday, Feb 26, 13 @ 12:31 pm:

    Kelly 37
    Beale 31
    Halvorson 19

    Conceal Carry eventually passes with 67 votes
    Gay Marriage passes with 60.


  4. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Feb 26, 13 @ 12:32 pm:

    I predict wins for Kelly, Vandermyde and Harris, respectively.


  5. - Cheryl44 - Tuesday, Feb 26, 13 @ 12:33 pm:

    Representative Robin Kelly will serve at least a full term and not be indicted for anything.

    The courts will have to decide how conceal carry will work in Illinois because there are too many screamers on both sides of that debate.

    Gay marriage will pass the House and be signed into law during this session. People on the fence will realize it’s good for the economy. Haters will continue to hate (and no, I don’t think everyone who is against it actually hate gays. Perhaps the non-haters who are against it will come around too, who knows).


  6. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Feb 26, 13 @ 12:34 pm:

    ===Conceal Carry eventually passes with 67 votes===

    That would mean no override of home rule. Takes 71.


  7. - Carl Nyberg - Tuesday, Feb 26, 13 @ 12:36 pm:

    Kelly is going to get 40-45, Halvorson 20-25, Beale will get about 10 and Anthony Williams will be the next highest vote getter.

    So form of concealed carry will pass and the gun control advocates won’t get anything as part of the deal.

    Gay marriage bill will pass out of committee and then it will pass the full House.


  8. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Feb 26, 13 @ 12:36 pm:

    Kelly wins, Halvorson 3rd, Beals shows some legs to fight for something else dow the road.

    Todd fights for every single thing CC proponets require, and as each amendment is discussed, the calendar is going to favor CC proponents every day they get closer to June, so I see the hearings more about, “Nice try …but we can still wait you out,” being a very strong hammer for CC.

    Greg Harris has not said the status, so when Harris gives me the road map, then I will watch the bill travel down that road. That being said, right now, Harris needs to cobble 60 votes, getting his few R’s and as the Bill moves, we will get to see how much “Magic” Harris can muster, and how strong those worried Freshamn on both sides get, the closer the day arrives to vote.

    This might not get done till April(?). Like I said, I think when Harris sends up the smoke signal, that is the “tell” how close.


  9. - Anon - Tuesday, Feb 26, 13 @ 12:49 pm:

    Kelly wins comfortably

    CC passes with moderate regulation

    Marriage passes by a very close margin


  10. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Feb 26, 13 @ 1:04 pm:

    What 47 said.


  11. - austinman - Tuesday, Feb 26, 13 @ 1:07 pm:

    Repubs crossover and vote for DH
    CC passes
    SSM comes back for another day


  12. - Roadiepig - Tuesday, Feb 26, 13 @ 1:14 pm:

    1. Kelly by a decent margin. Money talks (most of the time when it’s this much), especially in a off year special election. And the results won’t be a referendum on Sandy Hook, gun control, etc. no matter what the talking heads tell us.

    2. Madigan’s amendment filled option will pass, meaning Illinois will basically still have no concealed carry (except for police and the bodyguards of politicians). Gun rights advocates will be back in court the day Quinn’s signature is attached to the bill. Lather, rinse, repeat.

    3. This is the tough one. I don’t think the votes are there yet in the full house. With civil unions only being in effect for two years, any rep on the fence has cover to say let’s wait. It will be the law here someday, but I will be surprised if that time is now.


  13. - Mason born - Tuesday, Feb 26, 13 @ 1:22 pm:

    Kelly wins comfortably will be a yawner of an election.
    Gay marriage stalls again for this session.
    CCW passes NRA gets most provisions but Home rule is not overridden. Chicago blocks carry in city and gets sued to allow.


  14. - train111 - Tuesday, Feb 26, 13 @ 1:23 pm:

    Kelly 44
    Beale 29
    Halvorson 24
    Other 3

    2.) CC will go to court
    3.) Gay marriage–very narrowly and after alot of arm twisting.

    train111


  15. - The Captain - Tuesday, Feb 26, 13 @ 1:26 pm:

    Kelly: 53%
    Halvorson: 23%
    Hutchinson: 8%
    Beale: 12%
    Others: 4%


  16. - Casual observer - Tuesday, Feb 26, 13 @ 1:37 pm:

    Kelly wins and Bloomberg gets all the attention/credit.
    Cc will wait until May. Today they are testing the waters.
    SSM will pass and be signed and this issue can be behind us for good.

    Now can we get to pensions?


  17. - Darienite - Tuesday, Feb 26, 13 @ 1:39 pm:

    1. Kelly, the weather will hold down the voters.
    2. CC if passed, will contain too many exceptions; Senate will amend it and send it back.
    3. Will not come to a vote; will MM ever get a building at Notre Dame or Loyola named after him if he supports SSM?


  18. - SirLankselot - Tuesday, Feb 26, 13 @ 1:52 pm:

    1. Kelly wins with a healthly plurality. Her stance on guns best reflects the district.
    2. Illinois will be a may issue state. Democrats have to make C&C law; however, the “reasonable restrictions” will allow them to pursue laws similiar in Democratic run states. The 7th didn’t say it had to be shall issue.
    3. It’ll happen. Majority of Illinois residents support it, and it’s a Democratic government.


  19. - Snucka - Tuesday, Feb 26, 13 @ 1:53 pm:

    All logic says Kelly in a rout. I usually don’t put much stock in ED weather, but this is crazy. If Halvorson has a prayer, it is in low turnout and a Republican crossover. It happened in the 90s for Reynolds, but there was a GOP organization in the suburbs back then. No longer. Kelly is also the only candidate left actually running a full-fledged campaign.
    Kelly 48, Halvorson 20, Beale 15

    CC will be a mess for years.

    Same sex marriage will pass.


  20. - ChicagoR - Tuesday, Feb 26, 13 @ 1:58 pm:

    “will MM ever get a building at Notre Dame or Loyola named after him if he supports SSM?”

    Daley has a building named after him at DePaul, and he supported same sex marriage early and loudly. While the Cardinal and Rome are against same sex marriage, I would venture say that the majority of Catholic university employees, faculty and even priests I know are in favor.


  21. - CircularFiringSquad - Tuesday, Feb 26, 13 @ 2:00 pm:

    Kelly win
    DUI recipients will not carry
    lst GM Bill Mitchell and GmanJim!


  22. - lake county democrat - Tuesday, Feb 26, 13 @ 2:03 pm:

    I’ll go with Kelly since I haven’t heard how a Madigan feels and the rest of the big pols seem to like her.

    conceal carry fails - terrible timing.

    gay marriage passes - good timing.


  23. - Wumpus - Tuesday, Feb 26, 13 @ 2:07 pm:

    Halvorson wins as the Black vote is fractured and it is cold/snowy out. It will be close, though. 20-25% for DH

    CC wins and as a compromise, so does gay marriage.


  24. - Nick Kruse - Tuesday, Feb 26, 13 @ 2:14 pm:

    ===conceal carry fails - terrible timing.===

    It can’t really fail. The question is how restrictive it turns out to be. It will happen one way or the other.


  25. - Nick Kruse - Tuesday, Feb 26, 13 @ 2:18 pm:

    Gay marriage will be taken care of one way or another by the end of the session. Whether it is done in the House or by the state supreme court or by the national supreme court, it is happening. If its done in the House, I predict they will wait until after the primary so they can get any Republican lame ducks.


  26. - John Jacob Jingleheimer Schmidt - Tuesday, Feb 26, 13 @ 2:34 pm:

    Halverson takes it due to split.

    CCW by 62 in the house, because Madigan will rule that HIS bill only needs simple majority, and it will be “may issue” and will go directly to court.

    Gay marriage: will pass and will drag the screaming conservatives along by their toe.


  27. - Sideliner - Tuesday, Feb 26, 13 @ 2:58 pm:

    Kelly in a squeaker because everyone lined up behind her.
    CC will go to the courts for reasons all stated above. Are they done dealing with all the amendments on that?
    SSM will pass and, astoundingly, the world will not end.


  28. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Feb 26, 13 @ 4:08 pm:

    ~Will MM ever get a building at Notre Dame or Loyola named after him if he supports SSM?~

    If he can afford one, yes.


  29. - Cheryl44 - Tuesday, Feb 26, 13 @ 4:09 pm:

    Sorry, the Anon at 4:08 is me. I’m not in my office.


  30. - Angry Chicagoan - Tuesday, Feb 26, 13 @ 4:35 pm:

    I think it comes down to the wire between Halvorson and Kelly. Turnout is going to be terrible. Republican voters who are into their guns are highly motivated to cross over. Beale is splitting the urban portion of Kelly’s base.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* A very good point
* Rauner outspent 2-1 on Chicago TV last month
* So far, it's still stuntish
* Politico report: Enyart slipping fast, Callis dumped
* *** UPDATED x1 - Another poll shows single digits *** Poll: Durbin with a single digit lead and slightly below 50
* A big swing and an even bigger miss
* Schneider up with first TV ad
* This year's best test of party strength
* A boldfaced lie
* Rate Gov. Quinn's new TV ad
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * Samsung Level Headphone Series Review: Galaxy Owners Only Need Apply
        * Backflip Studios try to bring D&D gameplay to mobile
        * Why Apple’s mobile-payments system might actually work
        * Working 4.7-inch iPhone 6 leaked in photos and video, sort of
        * ASUS confirms low ZenWatch price – but is it as low as we’ve heard rumored?
        * Moduul gives your LG G Watch a pretty charging dock
        * Gear We Love: Twelve South HiRise holds your display, hides your gear

        * Thoma Bravo to Take Compuware Private in $2.5 Billion Deal
        * Sony Xperia Z3 Specifications Leaked
        * The Best and Worst Banks, Based on Checking Account Fees
        * Hackers May Have Stolen Credit Data From Home Depot
        * Office For iPad Monthly Subscriptions Announced
        * 'Never Be Bullied Into Silence': Robin Williams' Daughter Zelda Is Back on Twitter
        * Netflix Private Recommendations On Facebook Go Live

        * White Sox unburden themselves for September
        * White Sox Minor League Update: End of the regular season
        * Noesi looks to continue push toward season's end
        * Williams conveys important message to Little Leaguers
        * Podcast: Dunn Deal
        * Thoughts on the Adrian Nieto experiment
        * Breaks turn in Quintana's favor against Tigers


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        September 2014
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * State accepting patient applications for medica.....
        * Chicago Schools Boost Route Security..
        * Illinois Amends the Human Rights Act to Provide.....
        * Illinois Governor: No Speed Increase on Interst.....
        * Different States Have Implemented DACA Very Dif.....
        * Mayor Emanuel and CPS CEO Byrd-Bennett Ring In .....
        * Two polls show Dick Durbin is in trouble. Don’t.....
        * Quinn: Eating crackers on minimum wage challenge..
        * School starts in Chicago with more guards linin.....
        * HSR: Illinois to invest $102 million in upgrade.....


        * School starts in Chicago with more safety guards
        * Climatologist says August warmed up in Illinois
        * Quinn: Eating crackers on minimum wage challenge
        * Illinois prisons dealing with backup power issues
        * State starts accepting medical marijuana requests
        * Illinois woman rescued after day stuck in mud
        * Fargo is site for national ag research center
        * Coroner: 1 person dies in Illinois house explosion
        * More storms roll through Midwest with hail, winds
        * Cubs honor Jackie Robinson West little leaguers

        * Quinn: Eating crackers on minimum wage challenge
        * Illinois prisons struggle with backup power issues
        * State starts accepting medical marijuana requests
        * Audit finds state lax in reviewing eligibility for children’s health insurance program
        * Does the governor need to live in the Executive Mansion?
        * Statehouse Insider: Hands off investments
        * State of unions: AFSCME wins some, loses some on outsourcing
        * State of unions: Domination of Illinois' workforce becomes campaign issue
        * State of unions: Lawmakers approved keeping some workers out of unions
        * State of Illinois posts applications for medical marijuana businesses

        * Hinshaw merger sets up law firm for more growth
        * Thoma Bravo to buy Compuware
        * Thoma Bravo makes its biggest deal yet
        * Medical marijuana applications start rolling in for Illinois
        * ADM selling chocolate business to Cargill


        * New school year brings changes to Gresham
        * Moms, dads get kids ready for school
        * Chicago school year begins with more safety guards
        * Ex-cop convicted of protecting crooks is back on public payroll
        * Ald. Pope rehired city worker who quit after sex harassment allegations
        * Ald. Pope rehired worker who quit after harassment allegations
        * CPS can cheer, but challenges remain
        * EDITORIAL: CPS can cheer, but challenges remain
        * Police: Man throws baby from vehicle, beats girlfriend and boy in domestic fight
        * Man charged with battery; police say he threw baby from vehicle, beat girlfriend and boy


        * Man sentenced to 30 years for dumping baby's body in trash
        * Ice bucket challenge heats up ALS donations
        * Not guilty pleas in red light camera bribery scheme
        * Fukudome lists Streeterville condo for $1.5 million
        * Trial to begin in killing of Indian Head Park teen
        * The Divvy blues: Bike-sharing program facing growing pains
        * Today is first day to apply for medical pot
        * CPS students -- and politicians -- head back to school
        * Fast food workers plan civil disobedience in minimum wage fight
        * Woman, 82, killed in Streator home explosion


        * Big Predators In Illinois Inspire New Law
        * WUIS/SJ-R Business Report: Casey's Expansion; Parsons In Court; Farmland Prices Fall
        * Opposition Research Key Part Of Political Dark Arts
        * Digging up political dirt? That's their job
        * State Starts Accepting Medical Marijuana Requests
        * Newborn Found Alive In Jacksonville Trash Bin
        * DNR Releases Fracking Rules
        * Listen to State Week - August 29, 2014
        * 'Belleville' The Movie Is NOT A Documentary
        * Journalist and doctor encourage honest conversations about death


        * Quinn: Eating crackers on minimum wage challenge
        * Illinois prisons struggle with backup power issues
        * State starts accepting medical marijuana requests
        * Couple’s wedding gifts help the community
        * Angela Bertoni: How to raise awareness of domestic violence in October
        * Catherine Rampell: Tech firms’ poor record of diversity
        * Audit finds state lax in reviewing eligibility for children’s health insurance program
        * Does the governor need to live in the Executive Mansion?
        * Our Opinion: Driving into floodwater a deadly practice
        * Angie Muhs: A debate in Springfield would send the right message from candidates


        * Jerry Frey
        * West Frankfort man arrested for residential burglary
        * Judge sentences man to five years after probation violation
        * 09-02-14 Greta Henry and Rick Santorum on Living Alternatives
        * Champaign Central High School tour
        * 09-02-14 Penny for Your Thoughts
        * Lindenwood, McKendree and SIUE see enrollment growth; SWIC drops
        * Enrollment up at local universities; down at SWIC
        * Flash Index dips in August
        * West Frankfort police warn of water bill phone scam


        * Vets get flights on WW II aircraft at Chicago Executive Airport
        * Cops: 2 more possible victims in teacher sex abuse case come forward
        * Family: Joan Rivers on life support
        * New video scoreboard, some seating for next season
        * New video allegedly shows beheading of U.S. reporter

        * Schock travels to India to promote humanit...
        * Congressman leads humanitarian trip to Ind...
        * Share Narendra Modi's resolve to fight pov...
        * Share Modi's resolve to fight poverty: US ...
        * Rep. Aaron Schock on humanitarian trip to ...
        * Aaron Schock finds a new reason to show of...
        * Lawmakers React to Iraq Journalist Death -...
        * Congressman Schock to stop by LaGrange Loc...
        * Ground Broken On Tenth Street Rail Corrido...
        * Chicago Housing Authority changes supervou...

        * Two polls show Dick Durbin is in trouble. ......
        * Two polls show Dick Durbin is in trouble. ......
        * Who Leaked Nude Photos Of Jennifer Lawrenc......
        * Who Leaked Nude Photos Of Jennifer Lawrenc......
        * Who Leaked Nude Photos Of Jennifer Lawrenc......

        * Ex-HP chief to speak at Downers Grove orga......
        * When Will Women Get Equal Pay for Equal Work?...

        * William Greider. Happy Labor Day, Mom.
        * Mark Anderson. Minimum wage gimmicks.
        * New book tells of lesbian affair between AP statehouse bureau chief and senator
        * Transparency group opens the books on Illinois school district spending
        * 175 Illegals Released to Sponsors in Cook, Lake, DuPage Counties
        * Thorner & O'Neil: Part 2 - Christian Persecution Alive and Thriving in America
        * Quinn's new ad: Old-time lawn mower and an old populist message [video]
        * Brad Schneider launches new ad [video]
        * Quinn's new ad: Old-time lawn mower and old message [video]
        * Fioretti: Signs Point To Impending Chicago Property Tax Hike


        * Like All Illinoisans, Veterans Are Hurting Under Pat Quinn
        * Governor Quinn Kicks-Off 2014-2015 School Year - Governor Visits Students on their First Day; Announces State is Moving Ahead with ‘Seal of Biliteracy’ Program
        * Governor Quinn Invests $102 Million in High-Speed Rail Upgrades on Chicago-St. Louis Line - Funding Will Improve Capacity, Safety on Joliet-Dwight Segment
        * Quinn Refuses to Answer New IDOT Questions
        * IDNR Delivers Revised Rules to Implement Hydraulic Fracturing Regulatory Act - Rules strengthened to ensure public participation, improve transparency, toughen penalties and protect the environment




            Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller