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Today’s numbers

Tuesday, Aug 20, 2013

* Tedd McClelland at NBC5

In this century, the Republicans have gone 4-for-23 in statewide elections — a .173 winning percentage.

Tedd blames this sad record on the GOP’s conservative bent by looking at the moderates who won those four statewide races

In the 21st Century, only three Republicans have won a statewide election in Illinois: Judy Baar Topinka, elected treasurer in 2002 and comptroller in 2010; Mark Kirk, elected to the U.S. Senate in 2010; and Dan Rutherford, elected treasurer in 2010.

Thoughts?

* Meanwhile, a conservative Republican is gearing up for a run for state treasurer…

I haven’t sent an email regarding fundraising, volunteering or anything else in a while, but the time has now come to start building the bridge that will lead to my 2014 State of Illinois Treasurer election.

I’m writing to ask if you would be one of the first donors and more importantly, supporter to my election campaign?

If you’re IN — just go to www.michaelscottcarter.com and give whatever is comfortable for you.

Your donation of $50, $100, $250, or even $500 would be very helpful as I prepare to kick-off my campaign.

Your support will send a strong message to the liberal attack machine that Illinois and America want leaders with fiscal discipline as we Bringing Back Mainstreet… One Neighborhood at a Time and generating economic growth to all 110 counties in Illinois

Your support would mean a great deal to me as I prepare to kick-off the petitioning on September 3rd and start working to get Illinois back on track and moving forward in the right direction.

Thank you in advance for believing in me and your ongoing support.

Warmest regards,

Michael Scott Carter
State Treasurer Candidate [Emphasis added.]

I wasn’t aware that Illinois had annexed southern Wisconsin. The “Illinois Dells” somehow just doesn’t have the same resonance, but I suppose I could get used to it.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


96 Comments
  1. - Spliff - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 10:08 am:

    What is it with goofballs running for office with 3 names? Maybe he can run against Scott Lee Cohen? If is is running on the platform of adding new counties I hope they are in WI and not Kentucky or Iowa …


  2. - Frank - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 10:08 am:

    As long as we are annexing Wisconsin counties, can we pick up Dane County? Would love to pay instate tuition to send my kids to the University of Illinois at Madison.


  3. - Amalia - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 10:09 am:

    You can give 110%, but there are 102 counties in Illinois. though there are 110 election divisions, so I guess he’s planning a field organization.


  4. - downstate demo - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 10:10 am:

    Maybe that is the way to victory gerrymandering other counties into the state? It worked to keep the US House.


  5. - Amalia - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 10:11 am:

    the name….The Office (Michael Scott) meets Jimmy Carter.


  6. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 10:11 am:

    The 110 Counties?

    Is Lincoln County in there now?

    I guess geography, and state knowledge is not needed to run for Treasurer?

    Dope.

    More to come…


  7. - roscoe tom - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 10:12 am:

    8 additional counties - Here is a guy with imagination. Can you visualize his possible ghost payroll for his eight county empire?


  8. - Sarge - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 10:12 am:

    So, from the Scranton Regional Manager to Illinois State Treasurer? All he needs is a picture of him at his desk with the white coffee mug emblazoned with, “World’s Best Treasurer.”


  9. - dupage dan - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 10:15 am:

    I seem to remember another politician who said he had visited all 57 states. I think he came from Illinois, too.


  10. - Frenchie Mendoza - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 10:15 am:

    It wouldn’t be a “conservative Republican” without some egregious — and weird — misstatement. I suspect it’s the “liberal media” that decided there were 102 counties.

    Go GOP.


  11. - OneMan - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 10:16 am:

    One way to increase tax revenues….


  12. - AFSCME Steward - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 10:17 am:

    Just what Illinois needs, a Treasurer that can’t count.

    “generating economic growth to all 110 counties in Illinois”


  13. - 47th Ward - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 10:17 am:

    It’s part of the long-term ILGOP strategy to be competitive in 102 counties on a regular basis.


  14. - Fred Friendly - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 10:18 am:

    Maybe it is now one of Obama’s 57 states.


  15. - MsCommons - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 10:20 am:

    Did the original email also leave the period off at the end of the sentence?


  16. - AFSCME Steward - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 10:20 am:

    Is annexing counties from other states a conservative position ? What if they don’t want us to have them, then what ? Do we go to war to get them ?

    “What is it with goofballs running for office with 3 names? Maybe he can run against Scott Lee Cohen? If is is running on the platform of adding new counties I hope they are in WI and not Kentucky or Iowa …”


  17. - Art Vandelay - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 10:20 am:

    “…and you want to be my Latex Salesman. I don’t think so!”


  18. - Norseman - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 10:21 am:

    If we’re picking WI counties for annexation, my preference is for Brown County. Go Packers!


  19. - Judgment Day (Road Trip) - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 10:21 am:

    Well, if he only decided to run against Sheila Simon, I’m sure we would be amazed at all the interesting ‘factoids’ that would come out of that race.

    Hey, you guys are all being too 2 dimensional. He’s already found 8 new subterranean counties here in Illinois.


  20. - Demoralized - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 10:21 am:

    I’m suspicious of anybody with 3 first names.


  21. - AFSCME Steward - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 10:22 am:

    If I’m not in, can I go to his website & take whatever is comfortable for me ? Since he cdan’t count I’d doubt he would even notice anything missing.

    “If you’re IN — just go to www.michaelscottcarter.com and give whatever is comfortable for you.”


  22. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 10:24 am:

    There’s a difference between misspeaking — really misspeaking, not like Ty — and putting it in writing, where, presumably, you give it a once over, and still get it wrong.

    Seriously, to those doing the Pavlovian Fox thing really think Obama thought there were 57 states?

    It’s like the liberals who kept saying Reagan was dumb. If Reagan and Obama were so dumb, how come they cleaned the other guys’ clocks — twice?


  23. - John A Logan - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 10:24 am:

    Swing and a miss.


  24. - ANON - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 10:24 am:

    Shouldn’t it be a 17.3 winning percentage?


  25. - hisgirlfriday - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 10:28 am:

    @Demoralized - was going to post the same thing. Just seeing that guys name is giving me Scott Lee Cohen ptsd.


  26. - Bill White - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 10:28 am:

    His campaign filings show an East 53rd Street address, in Chicago.

    That would make MSC a Hyde Park Republican.

    Seriously?


  27. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 10:28 am:

    - Norseman -,

    I was not counting on new counties! Guess we may need more coordinators.


  28. - Bill White - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 10:29 am:

    Link:

    http://www.elections.illinois.gov/campaigndisclosure/CommitteeDetail.aspx?id=25093


  29. - Ucster - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 10:30 am:

    I’d like to see how many Illinois residents know how many counties there are in the state. I doubt that the percentage would be very high.


  30. - Chris - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 10:31 am:

    “The “Illinois Dells” somehow just doesn’t have the same resonance”

    [pedantry]They’d still be the Wisconsin Dells, as they are on the Wisconsin River, unless one was planning to change the river name, too, but Illinois is already taken, anyway. [/pedantry]

    Anyway, wouldn’t a conservative republican prefer to annex a portion of Indiana?


  31. - Realist - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 10:33 am:

    @Judgment Day - I think you’re on to something. Maybe to do with the Southern Illinois fracking.


  32. - Farker - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 10:34 am:

    Everyone is missing the bigger issue here. 4-23 seriously? That is beyond terrible and proof that the hard right wing of the party is destroying the ILGOP.


  33. - Knome Sane - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 10:36 am:

    =Your donation of $50, $100, $250, or even $500=

    That’s a strange way of phrasing it. Shouldn’t it be “or even $5.00″? Heck why not make it $1,000,000. I can almost hear the conversation taking place in the brain of a would-be supporter: “I really wish he gave me the option of giving more than $250.00″.


  34. - Knome Sane - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 10:39 am:

    @ANON

    =Shouldn’t it be a 17.3 winning percentage?=

    To clarify, 0.173 is the same as 17.3%.


  35. - A guy... - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 10:39 am:

    Good thing he waited the extra time to announce and get started so he could get it right. Yikes.


  36. - Aldyth - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 10:41 am:

    Maybe this mailing could go in the same file with Rauner’s farm land with a mountain backdrop?


  37. - West Side the Best Side - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 10:43 am:

    OK, we have to be contiguous, so that means we go through Lake, Porter and LaPorte in Indiana to get to Berrien in Michigan for the shoreline and breweries and the breweries in Green and Dane in Wisconsin. Still openings for more brewing counties.


  38. - dupage dan - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 10:46 am:

    Norseman, Please be careful of what you say. More and more Illinois folks are Packers fans than Wisconsin folk are Bears fans. But you had to go and spill the beans. Aaron Rodgers for Illinois Governor!


  39. - Realist - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 10:48 am:

    I hope that the reason conservative GOPs can’t get elected in Illinois has to do with our refusal to support their social agenda.


  40. - Stones - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 10:51 am:

    Make that 4-24!


  41. - hold on - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 10:52 am:

    Great a guy who wants to be Treasurer and can’t count - yeah he may actually win in this State.


  42. - Levois - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 10:56 am:

    I think he found his website. He does a takeoff on the “I like Ike” slogan.

    http://www.michaelscottcarter.com/


  43. - Cincinnatus - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 10:57 am:

    Anyone beside me see the irony of the Treasurer not counting right?


  44. - Grandson of Man - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 11:01 am:

    “Bringing Back Mainstreet”

    Awesome. Mr. Carter must be referring to bringing back defined pensions, increasing union participation, better-paying jobs and all the other things that make for a stronger middle class, like investment in public education.


  45. - Joan P. - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 11:03 am:

    Oh, wait, seriously? “I Like Mike”?

    @ Bill White: Yes, there ARE Hyde Park Republicans! Mostly connected with the U of C Business and Law Schools, though.


  46. - CircularFiringSquad - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 11:15 am:

    Gotta love it when the whack jobs come out and remind folks while Ds win time and time again. They work hard, try to solve the problems and know the facts…..Wonder how the campaign will staff up in Lincoln County?


  47. - downstate lib - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 11:21 am:

    “Your support will send a strong message to the liberal attack machine that Illinois and America want leaders with fiscal discipline as we Bringing Back Mainstreet… One Neighborhood at a Time and generating economic growth to all 110 counties in Illinois”

    Err, yeah…that’s close enough to how English works…


  48. - Skeeter/World Class Golfer - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 11:22 am:

    To the top part of the post –

    The interesting thing is that I thought Rutherford played the role of the fiscal conservative. Correct me if I’m wrong, but I had the impression that his reputation, until relatively recently, was as a conservative.

    Dan went moderate on social issues but I thought he remained to the right on small government and fiscal matters.

    If I’m right about Dan, his success really could be the path to GOP victory, if they would just wake up.

    Unfortunately, I just don’t see the GOP heading in that direction. Other than Rutherford and Ron Sandack, I don’t see much sign of social moderates asserting any sort of power.

    Instead, we see the Chicago GOP looking to people like Fran Eaton for advice. Sure, they can follow that advice, and then they can get 5% rather than 10% in 2014. It just seems obvious that you should not take election strategy advice from people who are bad at the whole “winning elections” thing.


  49. - Downstate Illinois - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 11:23 am:

    Actually, Carter is a conservative African-American that’s running that’s been active with the Urban League. As someone who has personally tripped up a statewide candidate with the “When are you going to campaign in Lincoln County?” question, I’ll forgive the 110 county issue.


  50. - Reader - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 11:25 am:

    “In this century”…”In the 21st Century”…Really, Tedd?? Can’t you just say “in the past 12 years” like a normal human being.

    Well, that plays both ways I guess:
    In the 21st Century, a full 50% of elected Democratic governors have been sent to federal prison! YOWSERS!!! 50%!!! Obviously a sign of rampant party corruption, right Tedd?

    /snark


  51. - Amalia - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 11:38 am:

    more counties, more county chair…men.

    more counties, more counties for Pat Quinn to lose and posts here to point that out.


  52. - Deep South - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 11:40 am:

    Maybe he’s already under pressure from the “liberal attack machine” and simply forgot how to count.


  53. - Cincinnatus - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 12:15 pm:

    - Skeeter/World Class Golfer,

    Gotta ask about the World Class Golfer thing…


  54. - Fred - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 12:18 pm:

    I know people like to think ideology has something to do with the dismal GOP performance in Illinois, but I contend that ideology has little impact on the majority of voters. Cook County has forever been controlled by a Democratic machine, and the machine voters will vote Democrat. Downstate doesn’t like Chicago, and will vote the opposite. I know the downstate vs. Cook split has softened over the years as Cook voters migrated to the near suburbs, but the split still exists. Urban areas, Peoria, East St. Louis, predominantly vote Democrat. Urban Illinois voters will likely give you a reason why, but most would just be parroting talking points they learned over the years. Urban people firmly believe the Democrats have their best interest in mind.

    Then there is reality. Illinois troubles are the result of a one party system where leadership is never in fear of the voter and have forever been ensconced in their job. It is fun to debate the Dem vs. Repub, as it makes for great conversation. But the fact is that those voters who will be swayed by ideology favor voting for who they think is going to win over ideology. So, as long as people “think” a Democrat is going to win, they will vote Democrat regardless of ideology or ideological argument. No one thinks Republicans can win anything. Mark Kirk won during the Tea Party revolt, so he in an anomaly.


  55. - shore - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 12:19 pm:

    Aaron Chambers-I guess now a former journalist wrote a great piece 7 years ago after the 06 shellackings about what the party needed to do. I think it’s closer today only because democrat fatigue is settling in and the ryan stuff is further behind it in every election.

    the party needs to think less about ideology as the proft/brady jokesters think or just trying to get to 50.001 as kirk and most moderates do or about bringing back the glory days as the hackish edgar/lahood/dillard clowns want and more about finding a brand/vision that a state rep to gubernatorial candidate can run under and do well anywhere in the state.


  56. - Skeeter/World Class Golfer - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 12:20 pm:

    Cincy,
    From yesterday.
    If Quinn is a reformer, I’m a world class golfer.
    The reality is a good golf shot for me is any that gets into the air.
    But if we are going to be giving out crazy labels, I may as well take one. Who knows. Some people might actually believe it.


  57. - Skeeter/World Class Golfer - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 12:23 pm:

    Fred,
    That’s just not consistent with electoral outcomes.
    When the GOP has gone moderate it has won.
    When it goes far right, it loses.

    So yes, ideology matters. We know it does just by looking at winners.


  58. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 12:25 pm:

    Some thoughts…

    At least 4 of those “losses” were put-up candidates against Lisa Madigan and Jesse White. Add 2 more “put-ups” for Durbin, and then you might have a clearer picture.

    In baseball a “sacrifice” is never held against a Batting Aveerage, doesn’t even count as an At-Bat…4-17 is better than 4-23. Not great, but more honest.

    Further,

    When we start voting 90% plus in turnout, then I will rail more on issues than I do, and less on field operations. Every voter we in My Party do not get to the polls, is like losing 1 1/2 votes becuase of the so few GOP voters in percentage to Dems in Party ID.

    Attention Fran Eaton, any conservatives, any Slytherin House Republicans;

    Deciding not to back the Nominees because they are “RINOs” or other Dopey idea that is not “pure” we will continue to lose.

    Attention all GOP Moderates….

    How was that message you sent about Bill Brady? you know, the one where that “Jerry Clarke Map” is Brady’s fault, yet you didn’t vote for Brady to save the possiblility of a Dem drawn map. That was Dopey in the way to send a message, since now we are saddled with a “map” the Irrelevent Leaders don’t know how to beat, even though MJM beat the GOP map 4 out of 5 times.

    We need to get better, but we also need to look at things honestly, not ideologically pure, or intelectually dishonest.

    We gave away at least 6 races, we rarely use a strong field operation, and our GOTV is terrible.

    Start with what we can correct, and move forward.


  59. - AFSCME Steward - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 12:49 pm:

    OW

    What do you think is the reason GOP voters are staying home, or voting with the Dems ? Is is organization or ideology. A lot of people consider themselves to be GOP at heart but are not all that political. Are people staying home because they are uncomfortable with the nominee. I live in Chicago. It is rare for a GOP precinct captain to visit, even though my wife is hardcore GOP & I was, until recently, a GOP leaning moderate. Your argument about organization for Chicago is certainly valid. But what about suburban Cook, Lake, DuPage and the whole of downstate, mostly GOP territory. Why can’t those areas deliver ? Is is organization or is it the candidates ? My experience is that if people are excited about the ticket they will get involved. All the campaigns I’ve worked on were because I believed in who I was working for. The GOP recently has been nominating mostly hardcore right candidates that do not appeal to a vast majority of the electorate. When this happens, people lose interest and stay home. Or they split their ticket, voting for JBT & Rutherford, but rejecting Brady. The GOP has to work to win moderates like me back. The leadership of the party needs to step up & back an electable candidate in the primary, not sit on the sidelines and see what happens. There will always be hardcore right, however, they do not need to be the dominant voice in the party. As long as they are, the GOP will mostly lose.

    “When we start voting 90% plus in turnout, then I will rail more on issues than I do, and less on field operations. Every voter we in My Party do not get to the polls, is like losing 1 1/2 votes becuase of the so few GOP voters in percentage to Dems in Party ID.”


  60. - MrJM - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 12:51 pm:

    In this century, the Republicans have gone 4-for-23 in statewide elections — a .173 winning percentage.

    The first step for the GOP is now obvious: Get new voters.

    – MrJM


  61. - Cincinnatus - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 12:51 pm:

    Identifying +/- and getting them out. How simple is that?

    There is also this approach:

    Candidate Announces

    ?????????????

    Republican Governor!

    I know which way I choose to go…


  62. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 1:12 pm:

    - AFSCME Steward -,

    I hear ya, I get ya, heck, as many here know, I have no time for Slytherin House Republicans, blood oaths, or litmus tests.

    I, also, understand the need to bring voters in. The more reasons we give voters to be Independents who lean against the GOP, the more voters we will continue …continue … to lose.

    The Reagan Rule of 80% should dictate the Party’s beilef that we need to understand “RINOs” and “Right-Wing Whackos” are not helping in trying to define who we are as a Party, and what we all …ALL … need to do to win.

    Democrats rally around their Nominees, and make sure as a Party, they, the Democrats, move the Democratic agenda forward, and work out the intellectual issues as they come up for discussion.

    We in My Party, we must …MUST … have all the ideology squared away, before we can rally for election wins. Add to that no way … no way … to find Pluses, get a GOTV organized, and vote … vote those Pluses … and as a “cake”, or cake falls flat.

    I hear ya, - AFSCME Steward -. I do.

    I try to control what I can control. Undertanding that My Party is not getting it done in the Precincts, on Election Days, and not getting it done rallying around Nominees… I can control that …

    I leave the “purity”, “fighting for the Soul”, “Ideology to shape the GOP” … to those willing to lose elections, and cut their nose to save their face …for the sake … of Purity.


  63. - Skeeter/World Class Golfer - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 1:28 pm:

    Oswego,

    Regarding Brady –

    If you think you are going to win with just GOP votes, you are mistaken. You need independents and cross-over Dems. There are just not enough Republicans in IL to win without those groups.

    You don’t get the independents and cross-over Dems with candidates like Brady.

    I’ve voted for Democrats most of my life but will cross over if there is a moderate.

    I may cross over for Rutherford (unless Kwame gets the nod, in which case I’m undecided by lean to Kwame). I would consider it for Rauner or Dillard.

    I will not cross over for Brady, even against Quinn.

    If the GOP wants to nominate Eatonophiles (or should it be Franophiles) in safe GOP districts, that’s their option. Both parties have a fringe element.

    But if you nominate somebody like Brady, even against a candidate as weak as Quinn, you don’t have a chance statewide.

    Turnout among the GOP faithful is not enough. You need to get new voters.


  64. - Boog - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 1:29 pm:

    -Maybe that is the way to victory gerrymandering other counties into the state? It worked to keep the US House.-

    That’s funny, coming from the party that gerrymandered Illinois districts to benefit Dems.


  65. - Wumpus - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 1:45 pm:

    SO the US has 57 states and IL has 110 counties?


  66. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 2:09 pm:

    - Skeeter -,

    With no …NO … field operation, Brady lost by 4 votes a precinct in Cook and Chicago.

    Four votes. No GOTV.

    I can’t ding Dillard for losing by 193 votes with no field organization, and not recognize Brady lost, due in large part by not having any GOTV or Election Day aparatus.

    That is real.

    Quinn and the Unions, all over Illinois beat Brady in the Precincts. That is also real.

    While ideology was a contributing factor, a facto to consider as well is the turnout left plenty of votes on the table for Brady if he found them and voted them.

    Brady did not.

    The Brady Campaign, and the Brady Campaign Senoir staff … coasted … measured drapes … did nothing in the facs of what Quinn put up on election Day. That is a fact too.

    Numbers are numbers. You don’t find your Pluses, run your Pluses, and Vote your Pluses … you lose.

    Numbers … 4 votes … no field oprganization … leads to loses …

    It does.


  67. - Dirty Red - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 2:25 pm:

    Hey, half of the White Sox lineup would do anything to have a .173 average.


  68. - Rudy - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 2:27 pm:

    The 21st Century is still young and for Illinois, much of it has been spent negatively reacting to President Bush. People have a tendency to factionalize, so I expect there will always be a demand for a multi-party system. The GOP has the infrastructure to persist, but will need to redefine their present agenda somewhat to get better results in Illinois.


  69. - Skeeter - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 2:29 pm:

    Oswego,

    That “four per precinct” number sounds nice until you realize that there are 2,034 precincts in Chicago and that in many of them no Republican will ever get votes.

    Do you really think the key to success is finding four votes per precinct in Willie Cochran’s 37 precincts? Carrie Austin has 54 precincts. Are you going to find over 200 votes there?

    Or are you better off nominating a moderate and adding 148 votes from Brendan Reilly’s or Michelle Smith’s or Tunney’s or Cappleman’s (or the list goes on) wards?

    You could have ten people working GOTV in every precinct in 20, and you are not going to get 150 extra votes in that ward.

    However, if you have a moderate, you probably don’t even need much of GOTV to get the votes along the lakefront. You will get the votes by having a candidate that the voters want.

    I live along the lakefront. Brady will never get my vote. I’ve got a lot of friends who feel exactly the same way. We will never walk a precinct for a Republican (hey, we’ve all businesses to run) but casting the vote if you have a moderate? In a second.

    This is not about GOTV. You are not going to get four votes in every precinct in Chicago running somebody like Brady. You are going to get far more than that in certain wards by running a moderate.


  70. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 2:42 pm:

    - Skeeter -,

    === …no Republican will ever…===

    Well, if you have ZERO…ZERO… Field Operations to prove you, - Skeeter -, wrong, then you will be right.

    “If you think you can do a thing, and you think you can’t do a thing, you are right about both” - Henry Ford

    Further,

    “Never”… Yikes!

    If we don’t … then we won’t.

    No matter WHAT… you need a Field Operation. Can you, personally, - Skeeter -, 100% guarantee the “Lakefront”, today, with not a lick of a Field Operation?

    Nope.

    Got to run Pluses.

    Every time. All the time. Every Race. Period,

    It’s ALL about finding, cataloging, and voting your Pluses, not “hoping”, “believing”, or “knowing”.

    It is… about voting, and numbers.


  71. - Ruby - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 2:51 pm:

    A conservative candidate does’t have a chance to win against Governor Quinn in Illinois. The best GOP pick would be the moderate Judy Topinka.


  72. - Boog - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 3:02 pm:

    au contraire Ruby, Quinn is the Republican’s best chance at a victory. So much so that I know people that plan to pull a Dem ballot just to help him along.


  73. - Skeeter - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 3:04 pm:

    Oswego,

    With a Brady, where are you going to find 150 votes in Cochran’s ward? Austin’s?

    Those votes just do not exist. Frankly, they don’t exist for any Republican now or in the foreseeable future. “Got to run pluses?” You are not going to find them in certain wards no matter what you do.

    Four votes per precinct sounds nice but as a practical matter it is not going to happen.

    Nominate a moderate and you can find those votes. 42, 43, 44, 46, even 49. People will vote for the GOP if they nominate somebody moderate.

    Would GOTV help? Maybe. But with a moderate you have a chance. With a Brady you have no chance.

    GOTV is nice, but it is a waste of effort if you go with a Brady.


  74. - AFSCME Steward - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 3:05 pm:

    OW

    The real question was why was there no field organization ? My position is that he generated interest only among the hardcore right. The rest of Illinois wasn’t interested. He lost a very winable race for the GOP because of his message. It may have been 4 votes a precinct average, but he lost because he failed to attract sufficient interest for people to come to his aid. In order to organize you need people to be part of the organization. If the candidate is unappealing, the organization fails to materialize. So do the votes. I was a switch voter. I voted for Dillard in the primary, but with Brady’s view about state workers, there was no way I was going to support him in the general. I voted for Quinn reluctently. I am asking the GOP to give me a reason to return to the GOP. If they are going to nominate another state employee hater, who thinks the unions are what’s causing all of Illinois problems, I will stay away. The GOP used to welcome union voters. Reagan made an effort to recuit blue dems and moderate indies. It worked & he created a winning GOP that won in Illinois & across the nation. The GOP used to control the government structure in Illinois. It can again. But it won’t doing what it has been doing for the last 10 years or so. Win me back. If you do, you will win other union voters as well. Not all AFSCME members are hard left. As a matter of fact, a large number are moderate. Only the vocal leaders are the socialist leaning activists. Look past them. Court the moderates. Tune out the extreme. You aren’t winning listening to them. Organize behind a moderate that can win in the general. Back him or her in the primary. Put all your forces behind him. The dems are weak. Very beatable. Wake up and do what it takes to win. Or do what you’ve been doing and lose again.

    “With no …NO … field operation, Brady lost by 4 votes a precinct in Cook and Chicago.”


  75. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 3:08 pm:

    ===that I know people that plan to pull a Dem ballot just to help him===

    They’ll never do it.


  76. - 47th Ward - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 3:10 pm:

    ===42, 43, 44, 46, even 49.===

    And 36, 38, 39, 40 & 45 too, and maybe also in parts of 3, 19 and 23. There are plenty of Republicans in Chicago, they just don’t often get the chance to vote for good Republican candidates.


  77. - Ruby - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 3:13 pm:

    3:05 pm = Wake up and do what it takes to win. =

    The GOP conservatives think it is still 2010.


  78. - AFSCME Steward - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 3:18 pm:

    Ruby

    I believe Quinn won in 2010.

    “The GOP conservatives think it is still 2010.”


  79. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 3:19 pm:

    - Skeeter -,

    Missing the whole point.

    There was not … NOT …an effort in GOTV for Brady.

    None. Zero.

    You can not speak knowledgeably about how many votes a GOTV would have gotten Brady in ANY Ward.

    I know. I know how many Brady got without ANY Ground Game.

    You are like the Henry Ford Quote, you say they won’t and gues what they didn’t, because no one looked for any votes in the city of Chicago, and voted them in a GOTV Election Day aparatus.

    Further,

    I get ya - AFSCME Steward -, but the question remanins; with no GOTV to overcome you, who voted for Dillard, and not for Brady, a good field organization might have found voters to turn out.

    Brady’s Senior Political Staff found none.

    Brady’s Senoir Staff got steamrolled by the Union GOTV statewide, and had no answer.

    Stance or no stance.

    - 47th Ward -,

    Remember Roger McAuliffe came out of 38.

    There are Republicans in the city and in many Wards. Those Republicans need to be contacted, and they are needed to vote, and by an organization that can get them out on Election Day.

    It can happen, it has happened …

    It didn’t happen with Brady. Brady ignored, and let fester, the negative voters, unchecked by a GOTV to counter …as the turnout was low enough to find … even 4 votes a precinct.


  80. - Skeeter - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 3:20 pm:

    47, agree 100%. I was just listing wards I know well.

    My argument was that most of those areas will still choose the Dem if you the alternative is Brady, but a significant number would switch if there was a moderate.

    GOTV doesn’t work if people will not vote for a candidate. With a Brady, there is nobody to call to get to the polls. You are not going to identify any pluses.


  81. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 3:28 pm:

    === You are not going to identify any pluses. ===

    lol.

    So, you are saying, Brady, magically, maximized every vote he could. The Brady Senior Staff voted every single Brady voter possible, and maximized every single vote, leaving not a single one on the table ..,,

    Without….

    A field organization, GOTV… and Elevtion Day apparatus to vote Pluses???

    Yikes!

    Yep. No more. None.

    No need to look…

    Wow


  82. - Skeeter - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 3:33 pm:

    Oswego,

    Bill Brady was an absolutely miserable candidate.

    No, he was not going to get any additional votes.
    In the best GOP year in 50 and against and unpopular incumbent, he still managed to lose.

    He lost because people do not like him.

    You may not like that reality, but it does not change reality.

    If you want to console yourself with the thought of “But we were just a field operation away” be my guest. But it is just not true. There was no way he was going to win. He was too extreme.


  83. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 3:45 pm:

    ===Bill Brady was an absolutely miserable candidate.===

    Agreed. Senior Staff blew the campaign even more that Brady being miserable. They had to hide Plummer, Brady was a ghost in Chicago, and got pummeled on Election Day. Agreed.

    ===No, he was not going to get any additional votes.===

    This is quite ignorant.

    I guess a field operation accounts for not one … not one vote … according to you.

    ===In the best GOP year in 50 and against and unpopular incumbent, he still managed to lose.===

    It was lost in the last 3 weeks, with polls looking good, and Senior Brady Staff holding Transitional meetings and measuring drapes. There was not a time that a Brady Senior Staffer did not say they felt like they looked good, the polling had them ahead, and … they believed it.

    All true.

    They lost it on the Ground.

    They lost it on Election Day.

    They lost it with all the factors, and the “Extreme” and Unions, and Women, and every negative… working…. WORKING … on Election Day … against Brady….

    As brady’s Staff had no counter to …

    The women motivated to vote through GOTV…

    The Unions motivated to vote through GOTV…

    Quinn identified his voters, identified negative Brady voters … and his ground game … voted them…

    As you say …”He was too extreme”, quoting the simplist of lines…

    Understsanding how to finish a campaign is just as important as starting a campaign …ideas, stances, positions, ads …

    Four votes …still rings quite true …


  84. - Skeeter - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 3:53 pm:

    No Oswego. They didn’t lose it with lack of field.

    They lost it when Quinn started running against Brady on abortion and reproductive issues. Quinn played the right card at the end.

    That was the turning point.

    If Brady was a moderate on abortion he would have won. “No abortion ever” loses. Field can’t get you votes when people don’t like you.


  85. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 4:00 pm:

    ===If Brady was a moderate on abortion he would have won. “No abortion ever” loses. Field can’t get you votes when people don’t like you.===

    lol

    Mr. Cosgrove’s GOTV and Personal PACs GOTV and Election Day aparatus won the day, if you want to go “there”.

    Got to work an angle, to make it work …lol

    Why and where Pat Quinn won
    Monday, Nov 15, 2010
    CapitolFax.com

    ===Personal PAC CEO Terry Cosgrove told me he focused his group’s mail and robocalls almost solely on suburban women who voted in the last two general elections, but who didn’t vote in any primaries. That way, Cosgrove said, he could aim his message at what he believed were “very middle of the road, average suburban women.” He also included in his list 170,000 pro-choice Republican women whom his group had identified in suburban state legislative races over the years.===

    Got to work it, work the knowledge of the voters … to have it work…


  86. - Skeeter - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 4:07 pm:

    Maybe we are talking past each other.

    The pro-abortion people effectively told voters about Brady’s record.

    Do you really think that telling voters in the 20th Ward about Quinn was going to generate more Brady voters?

    Is there any message at all that Brady could have given voters in 20 to get people to vote for him?

    Moreover, if you are calling letting people know about Brady’s record “GOTV” then just about anything constitutes “GOTV.” A speech in May is GOTV since it is targeted at some group.

    When I think of GOTV, I think of learning who your pluses are and making sure they get out on election. It is about identifying rather than persuading.

    Telling people “the other guy hates women” does not seem like GOTV to me. It is not identification. It is persuasion.


  87. - AFSCME Steward - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 4:14 pm:

    Not very effective GOTV really. I never read political mail & hang up on robocalls, if I accidentally answer one.

    Brady lost because of his message. He didn’t mount an effective GOTV because he support was weak. He got the hardcore right votes he courted in the primary. The rest either stayed home or voted for Quinn. He couldn’t get organized because his support was weak and disinterested.

    “Personal PAC CEO Terry Cosgrove told me he focused his group’s mail and robocalls almost”


  88. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 4:19 pm:

    Let’s break this down …

    ===Do you really think that telling voters in the 20th Ward about Quinn was going to generate more Brady voters?===

    Education to 4 voters a precict has a chance.

    No one working to find 4 votes a precinct … has no chance.

    ===Is there any message at all that Brady could have given voters in 20 to get people to vote for him?===

    That is what Senior Staff is suppose to find out through their field coordinators.

    With no field coordinators, you will never know ANY message that can get … 4 votes a precinct.

    ===Moreover, if you are calling letting people know about Brady’s record “GOTV” then just about anything constitutes “GOTV.” A speech in May is GOTV since it is targeted at some group.===

    Maybe you should fiund out all that Terry Cosgrove and Personal PAC did, GOTV wise before “deciding” exactly what they did.

    ===When I think of GOTV, I think of learning who your pluses are and making sure they get out on election. It is about identifying rather than persuading.===

    I thought a field organization is not worth ONE vote, not one … not one vote is gained?
    ===Telling people “the other guy hates women” does not seem like GOTV to me. It is not identification. It is persuasion.===

    Response?

    ===He also included in his list 170,000 pro-choice Republican women whom his group had identified in suburban state legislative races over the years.===

    They identified already …they targeted, they planned.

    Did Brady do that for Election Day? Did Brady counter and get his voters out?

    If a Field Operation doesn’t matter, why does every campaign want so many volunteers to work before Election Day, and ON Election Day …and the good campaigns, give those volunteers something to do, like run Pluses …like those that vote … Pro-choice, Union …whatever …as Quinn did to Brady … on the Ground …On Election Day.


  89. - Skeeter - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 4:31 pm:

    Fine, Oswego.

    You can lead a horse to water but you can’t make him drink.

    If you want to continue to believe that you lost because of four votes and that field would have found those four votes, be my guest.


  90. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 4:39 pm:

    - Skeeter -,

    My point?

    You can’t say… a field operation couldn’t find those votes.

    We know the totals without field operations, you have to think having a field organization would add, at least one single vote.

    That is my point. All good - Skeeter -, what makes this place great is making us all call on each other to defend our thoughts.

    Much respect.


  91. - Skeeter - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 4:48 pm:

    “Much respect.”

    Same here.

    I think we are going to end up disagreeing on the impact GOTV can have with a weak candidate, but that’s OK.

    Reasonable minds can differ on that one.


  92. - Demoralized - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 5:09 pm:

    ==Quinn is the Republican’s best chance at a victory==

    That didn’t work out so well in the last election. If that’s what they are banking on their strategy stinks.


  93. - Just The Way It Is One - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 7:40 pm:

    Thoughts? Brutal. If a guy in the MLB had that average for very long, he’d be on his way back to the Minors REAL soon–and maybe not even the AAA League either, but worse…! Does this mean the GOP in Illinois has hit bottom…?


  94. - Ruby - Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 7:46 pm:

    Gov. Pat Quinn barely squeaked by in 2010 when the Republicans had their best chance of winning the governor’s election. But now it will be even more difficult for the GOP to win in 2014 with any of their current candidates for governor.


  95. - dr. reason a. goodwin - Wednesday, Aug 21, 13 @ 12:17 am:

    Former Congressman Joe Walsh is keynoting this month’s Ronald Reagan Dinner in Marion. So much for appealing to moderates and independents.


  96. - hold on - Wednesday, Aug 21, 13 @ 6:24 am:

    Looks like Michael “110 Counties” Scott Carter has enticed Cross to jump in the race - rumor is he’s announcing to the House Republicans on a conf call today. I can just imagine the jubilation felt throughout the state not to mention is lingering question of where’s our money?


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


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