SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Davis’ lead grows over Harold

Friday, Oct 18, 2013

* Harold could destroy her political future if she winds up getting thumped this badly next March

A recent poll of Republican voters in the 13th Congressional District gives incumbent Rep. Rodney Davis a 4-to-1 lead over his Republican challenger, Urbana attorney Erika Harold.

The poll of 859 Republicans, taken Oct. 10, showed that Davis was the choice of 63.15 percent of the likely Republican voters, to 15.95 percent for Harold. About 21 percent of those polled were undecided. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.34 percent.

A poll taken exactly four months earlier, on June 10, by the same Springfield polling firm, We Ask America, found that Republicans favored Davis, 53.55 percent to 16.38 percent.

“This is going to be a very tough road for a challenger in a Republican primary,” said Gregg Durham, the CEO of We Ask America. “Republicans seem to be favoring the incumbent, and for a challenger with limited means who is not willing to throw bombs — I think she’s more or less said she’s going to run a positive campaign — absent a major scandal, it’s hard to find a path to success for her.” […]

“I wouldn’t suggest right now that these will be the final numbers,” he said of the poll, “but I would suggest that I’ve never seen someone with these type of numbers win, absent a major scandal.”

Durham is spot on.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


28 Comments
  1. - Ron Burgundy - Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 11:12 am:

    That’s pretty decisive. Your move, Ms. Harold.


  2. - too obvious - Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 11:12 am:

    If the Democrats have to be the ones to take out a guy who pledged to shut down the government along with the birthers and the crazies, so be it. Erika Harold can run against the Dem in 2016.


  3. - John Bambenek - Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 11:16 am:

    too obvious-

    Put the pipe down. You’ve had too much.


  4. - Johnny Q. Suburban - Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 11:18 am:

    If she can’t raise money better than she has so far, she has no political future.


  5. - Fan - Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 11:22 am:

    Too Obvious, too Funny. Do what John suggests.


  6. - wordslinger - Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 11:23 am:

    I doubt if Club for Growth or Heritage Action is going to put any money behind Harold with those numbers.


  7. - David P. Graf - Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 11:26 am:

    Was this poll based upon calls to people with landline phones? If so, then you’ve got to question its sampling. Many, today, use their cell phones solely and don’t even have a “wired” phone.


  8. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 11:31 am:

    I think Ms. Harold has Congressman Davis, (R - not from Champaign) right where she wants him.

    “You’ll … you’ll see, she’s a star”

    Those Johnson Ex-Staffers are ruining her chances at being a relevent player in the future.

    My advice? Do not file. Stop. Walk away.

    Claim you…

    …”learned alot about the process of being a candidate, and when the time is right, and the campaign is right, I will return. Until then, I will continue to do my best and be a strong supporter of Republicans and I look forward to being very active all the way through next November.”

    Save. Face.

    Please …


  9. - Jaded - Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 11:38 am:

    Yep, that whole shutting the government down thing really hurt Davis. Remember, he NEVER voted to shut the government down. He only voted for bills to fund the government. In fact, he voted to “re-open” the governement right along with every Democrat in the state and against the “birthers and the crazies” who opposed the final compromise. Good luck making that “he shut down the government” crap stick.


  10. - chad - Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 11:45 am:

    And, the chance of a “major scandal” with Davis is about zilch. The guy is a Boy Scout all the way.


  11. - Just Observing - Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 11:46 am:

    === Was this poll based upon calls to people with landline phones? If so, then you’ve got to question its sampling. Many, today, use their cell phones solely and don’t even have a “wired” phone. ===

    @David P. Graf — You’re several years late in your concerns. Professional pollsters like Durham have addressed this.


  12. - Soccermom - Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 11:55 am:

    This is tough for me. As a Democrat, I’m just fine with Ms. Harold tanking her political career early and being forced to settle for an enormous paycheck at a huge lawfirm.

    But as a woman, I think the way Ms. Harold has been treated is just disgraceful.

    Take this, for example: “The Illinois Republican party refused to give Harold access to the GOP data center. Formerly called the “voter vault”, the data center is where the RNC stores voting information for all voters in the country, which it makes available to the 50 state parties for free. Candidates are given access to the database to target donors and voters.

    In response to Harold’s request, the state central committee, which governs the Illinois GOP, issued a new policy at its 5 October meeting. The new policy stated that challengers to any Republican incumbent would not be given access to the voter database. However, the policy did permit county chairs to give access to county voter data at their own discretion. How convenient for the white incumbent, Davis.”

    It’s kind of hard to contact donors if they won’t give you their names and phone numbers.

    So Erika — walk away with your future and dignity intact. You’ve got a great smile and a great resume. Don’t waste it on this race. Time is on your side.

    (And remember — Revenge is a dish that tastes best cold.)


  13. - hisgirlfriday - Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 11:57 am:

    @chad - Oh come on. Davis is a savvy politician but a “Boy Scout”???

    A guy who gained his foothold in politics via the George Ryan secretary of states office and who in 2012 refused to cooperate with a Congressional ethics investigation cannot credibly claim to be a “Boy Scout.”

    That said these traits do reinforce that he is a savvy political operator and thus Erika Harold cannot hope to see Davis Thaddeus McCotter’d out of office on a petition gathering technicality.


  14. - A guy... - Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 12:06 pm:

    This mountain’s a little too high. If you do have the votes, you better have the money. If you don’t have either, wait for the next bus.


  15. - IrishPirate - Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 12:12 pm:

    Well Congressman Schock is dodging a mirror based bullet on this one. “Mirror, mirror on the wall who’s the prettiest Illinois congressman of all”.

    I actually kid the Congressman. I was happily surprised how he and most of the GOP delegation voted on the budget deal. As bad as elements of the national GOP are few of those types get elected to federal office in Illinois.

    Have all the GOP Governor candidates picked Lt Gov’s candidates yet? If not then Ms Harold would be a good way to garner some publicity.


  16. - DuPage Dave - Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 12:12 pm:

    Who knows anything about the truth of this claim in the article in today’s Guardian?

    “The Illinois Republican party refused to give Harold access to the GOP data center. Formerly called the “voter vault”, the data center is where the RNC stores voting information for all voters in the country, which it makes available to the 50 state parties for free. Candidates are given access to the database to target donors and voters.

    In response to Harold’s request, the state central committee, which governs the Illinois GOP, issued a new policy at its 5 October meeting. The new policy stated that challengers to any Republican incumbent would not be given access to the voter database. However, the policy did permit county chairs to give access to county voter data at their own discretion.”

    Link to article:

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/oct/18/republican-party-minority-voters-skindeep


  17. - Rich Miller - Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 12:22 pm:

    ===Was this poll based upon calls to people with landline phones? ===

    We Ask America typically does anywhere from 20-28 percent mobile phones in its universe. Not sure what this one was.


  18. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 12:55 pm:

    Davis is over 60% in this poll, and factor in the margin of error, Rodney Davis is well over 50%, and Ms. Harold is even belor 20%, given … the margin of error.

    What am I missing here that has Erika Harold seen as a credible candidate in this race, with these parameters, in this time politcally?

    Ms. Harold raising a credible amout of money?No.

    Has polling moved Ms. Harold any closer? No.

    Has Ms. Harold secured the state party’s blessing, the Republican Congressional Campaign Committee’s endorsement to take on the incumbent? Any organized political aparatus … outside Champaign … given the campaign crediblity to take on Rodney Davis? No.

    Ms. Harold’s run is Folly, and the Johnson Ex-Staffers are egging it on, for all the wrong reasons.

    Save yourself Ms. Harold, please.


  19. - Nonplussed - Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 1:08 pm:

    Harold will catch up in swimsuit portion of this competition.


  20. - Ron Burgundy - Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 1:16 pm:

    The Guardian article assumes she is getting this treatment from the state party because she is not white and the incumbent is. Is that the more likely reason, or is it that they don’t want ANYONE challenging and weakening/beating their incumbents, regardless of who they are?


  21. - hisgirlfriday - Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 1:26 pm:

    @IrishPirate - FWIW, Schock signed the same letter Davis did helping to precipitate the shutdown in support of the FreedomWorks strategy to defund Obamacare through the CR.

    Its too bad Schock and Davis did not realize the folly of this strategy earlier and say so saving everyone the grief and expense of the shutdown, but instead enabled the extreme elements of their caucus to drive govt to a halt.

    As for that Harold not getting voter data story, I doubt this rule is passed to stop Erika Harold so much as Tea Party challengers in general.


  22. - a question - Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 1:34 pm:

    Someone remind me, isn’t it like $25 to get a CD of voter data from every voter in the state of illinois from the board of elections? I mean, who actually USES data center anyway? The interface is almost as bad as healthcare.gov.


  23. - Just Observing - Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 2:51 pm:

    === Someone remind me, isn’t it like $25 to get a CD of voter data from every voter in the state of illinois from the board of elections? I mean, who actually USES data center anyway? ===

    I don’t know anything about USES data center… but many companies and organizations maintain voter data that is far superior to the county or state voter files. For instance, the count wont scrub a voter until they do a canvas and realize the voter has moved, died, etc. On the other hand, some voter files will drop someone from the roll when they put in a change of address form with the USPS.


  24. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 2:55 pm:

    Disk, no disk …

    Ms. Harold is down 4 to 1, has “limited” money, a motivated Staff with ill intentions…

    As we talk about voter info.

    Erika may be a “star”, but at this rate, she is a “falling” star, not a “rising” one.


  25. - Soccermom - Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 3:32 pm:

    Yeah, JO — We assume the GOP list includes some secret sauce…


  26. - MyTwoCents - Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 3:32 pm:

    Regarding the voter information the News-Gazette had a good article that explained the whole situation.

    http://www.news-gazette.com/news/local/2013-10-17/harold-hits-wall-getting-data-republican-party.html


  27. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 3:40 pm:

    ===As for that Harold not getting voter data story, I doubt this rule is passed to stop Erika Harold so much as Tea Party challengers in general.===

    Ding. Ding.

    Would you give anyone challenging the incumbents the opportunity to use the list you are using to take away monies you are going to need to defeat the person running against the incumbent?

    Politics ain’t ben bag.

    The race thing is sad. It is about the politics and the cash and the power of the incumbency and stopping the challengers from using resources against itself.

    What, did Erika think everyone would roll over for her …

    At a 4-1 clip, looks like no one is really interested in Erika.


  28. - Norseman - Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 4:29 pm:

    === I’m just fine with Ms. Harold tanking her political career early and being forced to settle for an enormous paycheck at a huge lawfirm. ===

    If she’s not smart enough to bail, she’ll have to settle for smaller checks. I like my lawyers to have common sense.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Reader comments closed for the holiday weekend
* Fracking rules finally unveiled
* Question of the day
* A big IDOT roundup
* Even Steven, for now
* *** UPDATED x1 - Confirmed *** Report: Libertarians file charges
* Big guys dinged a bit, but little guys helped a lot
* Today's photo
* Stark contrasts on taxes, minimum wage
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * Manage Your Personal Health Records with Lumia
        * Samsung Gear S Swarovski strap announced, Note 4 will follow with back covers
        * Sony Xperia Z3 and Z3 Compact specs allegedly leak
        * HTC Nexus tablet leaked to come with keyboard folio cover
        * Sony Xperia Z3 Compact press photos show bright colors
        * iWatch price, iPhone 6 phablet leaks, Google event & more – Pocketnow Daily
        * Windows Phone 8.1 GDR2 tipped to bring some much needed updates

        * Sony Xperia Z3 Compact Photos Leaked
        * Cortana Takes On Siri In Latest Microsoft Advert (Video)
        * PS Vita to get app for PS4 live streaming
        * Metallic Slime Edition PlayStation 4
        * German court orders Uber to suspend services across the country
        * Shelly Palmer Radio Report – September 2, 2014
        * In praise of a subscription plan on your smart home and wild Apple speculation

        * White Sox Minor League Update: End of the regular season
        * Noesi looks to continue push toward season's end
        * Williams conveys important message to Little Leaguers
        * Podcast: Dunn Deal
        * Thoughts on the Adrian Nieto experiment
        * Breaks turn in Quintana's favor against Tigers
        * Molina outrighted; roster spot opens up for Rodon


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * Chicago school year to begin with more safety g.....
        * School to begin in Chicago with more safety guards..
        * Rauner vow revives governor’s mansion issue..
        * Laborers Spend Labor Day on the Picket Line..
        * GOP sees gains in Illinois voters tuning out..
        * Politicians gear up for election season..
        * School to begin in Chicago with more guards lin.....


        * More storms roll through Midwest with hail, winds
        * School to begin in Chicago with more safety guards
        * Cubs honor Jackie Robinson West little leaguers
        * Man found dead in central Illinois was hit by car
        * US eating habits improve a bit _ except among poor
        * Study: Action-packed TV might make you snack more
        * Patients to start applying for medical marijuana
        * US Rep. Duckworth announces she's pregnant
        * Bloomington shuttle bus driver charged with DUI
        * Chicago police: Murders down, shootings up

        * Audit finds state lax in reviewing eligibility for children’s health insurance program
        * Does the governor need to live in the Executive Mansion?
        * Statehouse Insider: Hands off investments
        * State of unions: AFSCME wins some, loses some on outsourcing
        * State of unions: Domination of Illinois' workforce becomes campaign issue
        * State of unions: Lawmakers approved keeping some workers out of unions
        * State of Illinois posts applications for medical marijuana businesses
        * DNR issues long-awaited ‘fracking’ rules
        * Quinn grants 38 clemency requests
        * IDNR issues long-awaited ‘fracking’ rules

        * If only it were this easy to lift share prices
        * 'Chicagoland' star returns to school
        * Amid re-election fight, Quinn pushes through a tax on business
        * Chicago's worst IPO in 2014: Ryerson
        * Why ComEd is worried about your smartphone


        * CPS can cheer, but challenges remain
        * ‘Long way to go’ but Roseland Hospital shows signs of stability
        * Moms, dads get kids ready for school
        * Ald. Pope rehired city worker who quit after sex harassment allegations
        * It's a girl: Rep. Tammy Duckworth due in December
        * Ex-cop convicted of protecting crooks is back on public payroll
        * Three dead, 35 wounded in Labor Day weekend shootings
        * Three dead, at least 35 hurt in Labor Day weekend shootings
        * Police: Man throws baby from vehicle, beats girlfriend and boy in domestic fight
        * Police: Murders down 7.5% through August 2014


        * At least 1 dead after Streator home explosion
        * Police charge man, 55, in Northwest Side stabbing
        * Man charged in shooting after soccer match in Oak Forest
        * 2 shot in separate incidents on Northwest, Southeast Sides
        * Cops: Man on moped leads cops on North Side chase
        * Survivors of Elmhurst family laud parents 'unwavering' commitment
        * Survivors of Elmhurst family laud parents 'unwavering' commitment
        * 1 dead, 13 hurt in shootings across city
        * I-90/94 reopened after semi rollover leads to inbound closure
        * Body of Chicago Heights boy, 14, pulled from Kankakee River


        * Newborn Found Alive In Jacksonville Trash Bin
        * DNR Releases Fracking Rules
        * Listen to State Week - August 29, 2014
        * 'Belleville' The Movie Is NOT A Documentary
        * Journalist and doctor encourage honest conversations about death
        * Undocumented Immigrants Call For Presidential Orders
        * State Retirees To Stop Paying Health Premiums
        * How America's most plentiful bird disappeared
        * Pregnant Workers To Be Protected Under New Law
        * Updates From The Prairie Capital Convention Center


        * Catherine Rampell: Tech firms’ poor record of diversity
        * Audit finds state lax in reviewing eligibility for children’s health insurance program
        * Does the governor need to live in the Executive Mansion?
        * Our Opinion: Driving into floodwater a deadly practice
        * Angie Muhs: A debate in Springfield would send the right message from candidates
        * Charles Krauthammer: Lower corporate tax rates. Now.
        * Bernard Schoenburg: Dillman, Watson looking at possible runs for alderman
        * Statehouse Insider: Hands off investments
        * Statehouse Insider: Hands off investments
        * State of unions: AFSCME wins some, loses some on outsourcing


        * Longing for the simpler times
        * A hobby becomes a passion for woodworking
        * Lady Cougars open with win
        * Kill
        * Local Scoreboard
        * How green is their valley
        * Rauner vow revives governor’s mansion issue
        * Infection affecting soybeans in region
        * No one was singing the blues
        * Open Line


        * Another big comeback keeps Sky going
        * U.S. carries out counterterrorism strike in Somalia
        * Lawrence calls for investigation into stolen pictures
        * South Carolina political campaign goes to the dogs
        * Big chance for Bears' defense to prove itself

        * Roskam: Making college more affordable for...
        * Army Veteran Shane Scherer Joins Roskam's ...
        * Roskam speaks on issues to chamber lunch c...
        * Roskam talks tax reform, health care, immi...
        * Roskam hires wounded veteran in West Chica...
        * Inactive Congress Discussed - Alton Daily ...
        * Roskam, Kirk speak to local business owner...
        * Roskam Talks Taxes - Alton Daily News
        * Nadler introduces resolution condemning an...
        * Roskam gives business leaders vision for f...

        * Bright Side: Peoria Labor Day parade sees ......
        * Bright Side: Peoria Labor Day parade sees ......
        * Politicians gear up for election season...
        * 47th Annual Labor day picnic...
        * 47th Annual Labor day picnic...

        * Rubio, Colleagues Call For Latin American ......
        * Putin Hopeful Russia Won’t Lose Right to H......

        * IDOT Announces Overnight Lane Closures Wednesday On I-90/94
        * Byrne joines Ryan, Ford as transport tributees -- will 'Looie" be next?
        * September has crept up on me again...
        * Division Street Bridge gets Old Bailey Runaround
        * Report: Minimum Wage Increase Would Help 1 In 5 Illinois Children
        * Southwest Side Chicagoans Question TIF Use In 23rd Ward (UPDATED)
        * Harris v. Quinn: Another Nail In The Coffin Or Shot In The Arm For Labor?
        * OP-ED: What FDR Actually Said And What Bruce Rauner Doesn't Get This Labor Day
        * Election 2014
        * Guest Post: Harris v. Quinn: Another Nail In The Coffin Or Shot In The Arm For Labor?


        * Governor Quinn Invests $102 Million in High-Speed Rail Upgrades on Chicago-St. Louis Line - Funding Will Improve Capacity, Safety on Joliet-Dwight Segment
        * Quinn Refuses to Answer New IDOT Questions
        * IDNR Delivers Revised Rules to Implement Hydraulic Fracturing Regulatory Act - Rules strengthened to ensure public participation, improve transparency, toughen penalties and protect the environment
        * Governor Quinn Proclaims September as “Recovery Month” in Illinois - Encourages people to speak up about mental illness and substance abuse
        * Governor Quinn Dedicates Jane Byrne Interchange - Governor Renames Circle Interchange in Honor of Chicago’s First and Only Female Mayor to Date




            Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller