SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Davis’ lead grows over Harold

Friday, Oct 18, 2013

* Harold could destroy her political future if she winds up getting thumped this badly next March

A recent poll of Republican voters in the 13th Congressional District gives incumbent Rep. Rodney Davis a 4-to-1 lead over his Republican challenger, Urbana attorney Erika Harold.

The poll of 859 Republicans, taken Oct. 10, showed that Davis was the choice of 63.15 percent of the likely Republican voters, to 15.95 percent for Harold. About 21 percent of those polled were undecided. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.34 percent.

A poll taken exactly four months earlier, on June 10, by the same Springfield polling firm, We Ask America, found that Republicans favored Davis, 53.55 percent to 16.38 percent.

“This is going to be a very tough road for a challenger in a Republican primary,” said Gregg Durham, the CEO of We Ask America. “Republicans seem to be favoring the incumbent, and for a challenger with limited means who is not willing to throw bombs — I think she’s more or less said she’s going to run a positive campaign — absent a major scandal, it’s hard to find a path to success for her.” […]

“I wouldn’t suggest right now that these will be the final numbers,” he said of the poll, “but I would suggest that I’ve never seen someone with these type of numbers win, absent a major scandal.”

Durham is spot on.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


28 Comments
  1. - Ron Burgundy - Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 11:12 am:

    That’s pretty decisive. Your move, Ms. Harold.


  2. - too obvious - Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 11:12 am:

    If the Democrats have to be the ones to take out a guy who pledged to shut down the government along with the birthers and the crazies, so be it. Erika Harold can run against the Dem in 2016.


  3. - John Bambenek - Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 11:16 am:

    too obvious-

    Put the pipe down. You’ve had too much.


  4. - Johnny Q. Suburban - Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 11:18 am:

    If she can’t raise money better than she has so far, she has no political future.


  5. - Fan - Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 11:22 am:

    Too Obvious, too Funny. Do what John suggests.


  6. - wordslinger - Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 11:23 am:

    I doubt if Club for Growth or Heritage Action is going to put any money behind Harold with those numbers.


  7. - David P. Graf - Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 11:26 am:

    Was this poll based upon calls to people with landline phones? If so, then you’ve got to question its sampling. Many, today, use their cell phones solely and don’t even have a “wired” phone.


  8. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 11:31 am:

    I think Ms. Harold has Congressman Davis, (R - not from Champaign) right where she wants him.

    “You’ll … you’ll see, she’s a star”

    Those Johnson Ex-Staffers are ruining her chances at being a relevent player in the future.

    My advice? Do not file. Stop. Walk away.

    Claim you…

    …”learned alot about the process of being a candidate, and when the time is right, and the campaign is right, I will return. Until then, I will continue to do my best and be a strong supporter of Republicans and I look forward to being very active all the way through next November.”

    Save. Face.

    Please …


  9. - Jaded - Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 11:38 am:

    Yep, that whole shutting the government down thing really hurt Davis. Remember, he NEVER voted to shut the government down. He only voted for bills to fund the government. In fact, he voted to “re-open” the governement right along with every Democrat in the state and against the “birthers and the crazies” who opposed the final compromise. Good luck making that “he shut down the government” crap stick.


  10. - chad - Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 11:45 am:

    And, the chance of a “major scandal” with Davis is about zilch. The guy is a Boy Scout all the way.


  11. - Just Observing - Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 11:46 am:

    === Was this poll based upon calls to people with landline phones? If so, then you’ve got to question its sampling. Many, today, use their cell phones solely and don’t even have a “wired” phone. ===

    @David P. Graf — You’re several years late in your concerns. Professional pollsters like Durham have addressed this.


  12. - Soccermom - Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 11:55 am:

    This is tough for me. As a Democrat, I’m just fine with Ms. Harold tanking her political career early and being forced to settle for an enormous paycheck at a huge lawfirm.

    But as a woman, I think the way Ms. Harold has been treated is just disgraceful.

    Take this, for example: “The Illinois Republican party refused to give Harold access to the GOP data center. Formerly called the “voter vault”, the data center is where the RNC stores voting information for all voters in the country, which it makes available to the 50 state parties for free. Candidates are given access to the database to target donors and voters.

    In response to Harold’s request, the state central committee, which governs the Illinois GOP, issued a new policy at its 5 October meeting. The new policy stated that challengers to any Republican incumbent would not be given access to the voter database. However, the policy did permit county chairs to give access to county voter data at their own discretion. How convenient for the white incumbent, Davis.”

    It’s kind of hard to contact donors if they won’t give you their names and phone numbers.

    So Erika — walk away with your future and dignity intact. You’ve got a great smile and a great resume. Don’t waste it on this race. Time is on your side.

    (And remember — Revenge is a dish that tastes best cold.)


  13. - hisgirlfriday - Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 11:57 am:

    @chad - Oh come on. Davis is a savvy politician but a “Boy Scout”???

    A guy who gained his foothold in politics via the George Ryan secretary of states office and who in 2012 refused to cooperate with a Congressional ethics investigation cannot credibly claim to be a “Boy Scout.”

    That said these traits do reinforce that he is a savvy political operator and thus Erika Harold cannot hope to see Davis Thaddeus McCotter’d out of office on a petition gathering technicality.


  14. - A guy... - Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 12:06 pm:

    This mountain’s a little too high. If you do have the votes, you better have the money. If you don’t have either, wait for the next bus.


  15. - IrishPirate - Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 12:12 pm:

    Well Congressman Schock is dodging a mirror based bullet on this one. “Mirror, mirror on the wall who’s the prettiest Illinois congressman of all”.

    I actually kid the Congressman. I was happily surprised how he and most of the GOP delegation voted on the budget deal. As bad as elements of the national GOP are few of those types get elected to federal office in Illinois.

    Have all the GOP Governor candidates picked Lt Gov’s candidates yet? If not then Ms Harold would be a good way to garner some publicity.


  16. - DuPage Dave - Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 12:12 pm:

    Who knows anything about the truth of this claim in the article in today’s Guardian?

    “The Illinois Republican party refused to give Harold access to the GOP data center. Formerly called the “voter vault”, the data center is where the RNC stores voting information for all voters in the country, which it makes available to the 50 state parties for free. Candidates are given access to the database to target donors and voters.

    In response to Harold’s request, the state central committee, which governs the Illinois GOP, issued a new policy at its 5 October meeting. The new policy stated that challengers to any Republican incumbent would not be given access to the voter database. However, the policy did permit county chairs to give access to county voter data at their own discretion.”

    Link to article:

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/oct/18/republican-party-minority-voters-skindeep


  17. - Rich Miller - Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 12:22 pm:

    ===Was this poll based upon calls to people with landline phones? ===

    We Ask America typically does anywhere from 20-28 percent mobile phones in its universe. Not sure what this one was.


  18. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 12:55 pm:

    Davis is over 60% in this poll, and factor in the margin of error, Rodney Davis is well over 50%, and Ms. Harold is even belor 20%, given … the margin of error.

    What am I missing here that has Erika Harold seen as a credible candidate in this race, with these parameters, in this time politcally?

    Ms. Harold raising a credible amout of money?No.

    Has polling moved Ms. Harold any closer? No.

    Has Ms. Harold secured the state party’s blessing, the Republican Congressional Campaign Committee’s endorsement to take on the incumbent? Any organized political aparatus … outside Champaign … given the campaign crediblity to take on Rodney Davis? No.

    Ms. Harold’s run is Folly, and the Johnson Ex-Staffers are egging it on, for all the wrong reasons.

    Save yourself Ms. Harold, please.


  19. - Nonplussed - Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 1:08 pm:

    Harold will catch up in swimsuit portion of this competition.


  20. - Ron Burgundy - Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 1:16 pm:

    The Guardian article assumes she is getting this treatment from the state party because she is not white and the incumbent is. Is that the more likely reason, or is it that they don’t want ANYONE challenging and weakening/beating their incumbents, regardless of who they are?


  21. - hisgirlfriday - Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 1:26 pm:

    @IrishPirate - FWIW, Schock signed the same letter Davis did helping to precipitate the shutdown in support of the FreedomWorks strategy to defund Obamacare through the CR.

    Its too bad Schock and Davis did not realize the folly of this strategy earlier and say so saving everyone the grief and expense of the shutdown, but instead enabled the extreme elements of their caucus to drive govt to a halt.

    As for that Harold not getting voter data story, I doubt this rule is passed to stop Erika Harold so much as Tea Party challengers in general.


  22. - a question - Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 1:34 pm:

    Someone remind me, isn’t it like $25 to get a CD of voter data from every voter in the state of illinois from the board of elections? I mean, who actually USES data center anyway? The interface is almost as bad as healthcare.gov.


  23. - Just Observing - Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 2:51 pm:

    === Someone remind me, isn’t it like $25 to get a CD of voter data from every voter in the state of illinois from the board of elections? I mean, who actually USES data center anyway? ===

    I don’t know anything about USES data center… but many companies and organizations maintain voter data that is far superior to the county or state voter files. For instance, the count wont scrub a voter until they do a canvas and realize the voter has moved, died, etc. On the other hand, some voter files will drop someone from the roll when they put in a change of address form with the USPS.


  24. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 2:55 pm:

    Disk, no disk …

    Ms. Harold is down 4 to 1, has “limited” money, a motivated Staff with ill intentions…

    As we talk about voter info.

    Erika may be a “star”, but at this rate, she is a “falling” star, not a “rising” one.


  25. - Soccermom - Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 3:32 pm:

    Yeah, JO — We assume the GOP list includes some secret sauce…


  26. - MyTwoCents - Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 3:32 pm:

    Regarding the voter information the News-Gazette had a good article that explained the whole situation.

    http://www.news-gazette.com/news/local/2013-10-17/harold-hits-wall-getting-data-republican-party.html


  27. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 3:40 pm:

    ===As for that Harold not getting voter data story, I doubt this rule is passed to stop Erika Harold so much as Tea Party challengers in general.===

    Ding. Ding.

    Would you give anyone challenging the incumbents the opportunity to use the list you are using to take away monies you are going to need to defeat the person running against the incumbent?

    Politics ain’t ben bag.

    The race thing is sad. It is about the politics and the cash and the power of the incumbency and stopping the challengers from using resources against itself.

    What, did Erika think everyone would roll over for her …

    At a 4-1 clip, looks like no one is really interested in Erika.


  28. - Norseman - Friday, Oct 18, 13 @ 4:29 pm:

    === I’m just fine with Ms. Harold tanking her political career early and being forced to settle for an enormous paycheck at a huge lawfirm. ===

    If she’s not smart enough to bail, she’ll have to settle for smaller checks. I like my lawyers to have common sense.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* "We need a little budget"
* Rauner: Legislative pay lawsuit a "stunning reminder of why we need term limits and real change"
* Todays graphic
* CPS board approves budget with $215 million hole, Republicans edgy about vote
* Question of the day - Golden Horseshoe Awards
* Our sorry state
* Could a legendary bipartisan pay for his Trump support?
* Where's your plan?
* Stop the presses!
* Paper: Forget the constitution
* Myerscough rules that Schock case will remain in Springfield
* Surprise! Moody's says Exelon bailout is "credit positive"
* Kennedy: "I'm in"
* ILGOP operative defends tracker involvement
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* *** UPDATED x2 - Cullerton responds *** Rauner won't schedule leaders meeting until Dems "are ready"
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............
<


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

  
* Microsoft Releases Office Diagramming App 'Visio Viewer' for iPad
* Gmail for iOS Updated With New Browser Preference, Multiple Message and Compose Options
* 2,000 Amazon Go stores? “Not even close. We are still learning.”
* You can schedule repairs at Apple-approved third parties direct from Apple support
* Conversational Actions for Google Assistant are now live for third-party services
* US Galaxy Note 7 won’t charge starting December 15
* RIP Pebble and Apple’s business post iPhone | #PNWeekly 230

* A tale of two Sox at Winter Meetings
* Other clubs' closer search may lead to Robertson
* White Sox add righty Covey in Rule 5 Draft
* White Sox steal show at Winter Meetings
* Hahn: Sox 'very pleased' with Meetings action
* In span of day, White Sox system skyrockets
* Justice: What should White Sox do next?

...............


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress

Loading


* Supporters tout benefits of new energy policy -.....
* Voice of The Southern: Thumbs up, thumbs down -.....
* Impasse Ruling On Hold - Alton Daily News..
* Budget Negotiations At A Standstill - FOX Illinois..


* 85-year-old Illinois woman still hunting deer since 1958
* Illinois man transforms himself from drug dealer to minister
* Chicago felon convicted by federal jury of selling firearms
* Road closures, camps closing for winter in Shawnee forest
* Elgin police to soon begin wearing body cameras
* Some Cook County probation officers to get body cameras
* Company in talks to buy, reopen Mitsubishi plant in Normal
* Stay or go? Tribe gives conflicting messages to protest camp
* Alleged Chicago gang boss denies ordering hit on informant
* Hearing set for Chicago man denied pardon by Pence

* $3M in emergency funds headed to Illinois community colleges
* Springfield-area veterans join pipeline protest
* Rauner asks Democrats for budget proposal, cancels meeting
* Comptroller: State employee bonuses on hold during impasse
* Rauner signs Exelon subsidy to spare 2 nuclear plants
* Rauner to sign Exelon subsidy to spare 2 nuclear plants
* Judge blocks administration from imposing contract on AFSCME
* State budget still elusive as leaders lash out
* Illinois budget still elusive as leaders lash out
* Killer of former central Illinois man sentenced to probation

* Grant Achatz a la carte: Roister reviewed
* The financial therapist will see you now
* Tronc exec Tony Hunter exits
* Trump's vow to control drug costs alerts another industry
* Health insurers willing to give up a key Obamacare provision


* 37-year-old woman killed in Frankfort crash
* Man shot while playing dice in Lawndale
* 17-year-old boy shot in University Village
* Man dead, 6 wounded in city shootings Thursday
* Wife of 80-year-old man killed by snowplow sues company
* Ex-CPD sergeant gets 6 months for swapping police info for cash
* Dear Abby: Do ask doctors to wash their hands
* Georgia Nicols horoscopes for Dec. 9, 2016
* Trump picks fast-food executive Andrew Puzder for Labor secretary
* 17-year-old boy shot in Englewood


* Lincoln Park mansion for sale at record $50 million asking price
* 1 dead, at least 8 wounded in city shootings
* This is what happens when Donald Trump attacks a private citizen on Twitter
* Bulls end three-game skid with 95-91 victory over Spurs
* Alabama executes man convicted of killing store clerk
* Billy Corgan's true Cubs fandom emerges in documentary about World Series win
* At lead-tainted Indiana housing complex, inaction and missed warnings
* Why law enforcement can't get ahead of 'Pizzagate' and other online conspiracy theories
* Do Trump’s Cabinet picks want to run the government — or dismantle it?
* Thursday's matchup: Bulls lead Spurs 45-32 at halftime


The widget AQL4JYGHIY powered by Feed Informer does not exist.


* Our View: Thumbs Up/Thumbs Down for the week
* $3M in emergency funds headed to Illinois community colleges
* Springfield-area veterans join pipeline protest
* Bernard Schoenburg: Bustos gets leadership post, criticizes Rauner
* Our View: Lawmakers should withdraw their lawsuit over paychecks
* George Will: The sensitivity police strike again
* Eugene Robinson: The proliferation of fake news presents real perils
* Guest Column: The Trump Administration faces extremism/terrorism
* Rauner asks Democrats for budget proposal, cancels meeting
* Comptroller: State employee bonuses on hold during impasse


* Deloufleur opens new location in Crainville
* Dr. Jack Struck
* Virginia 'Ginger' Sanders
* Mikkell Sneddon
* Shirley Jones
* Steven Kelley
* Wendell Davis
* UPDATE: Tom Petty and the Heartbreakers coming to State Farm Center
* Thursday's highlights: Danville's Burton hits 1,000 points
* Ayodele, Chargers outlast Maroons in girls' hoops


* Why four new DuPage County tax increases could be in jeopardy
* Naperville teacher scores $100,000 to promote global learning
* Bartlett to switch to Lake Michigan water in 2019
* Man accused of molesting boy in Bartlett park charged in other cases
* Lovell remembers Glenn as mentor, 'Boy Scout of space program'

* House lawmakers overcome hurdle on key tra...
* Rodney Davis talks funding with Bloomingto...
* The agency that fought Illiana gets a new ...
* Rep. Dold takes educational cruise down Ch...
* Lawmakers decry high turnover rate of VA h...
* CBD Oil, and politics
* Simon considering state Senate bid
* Killer Congressman Tom MacArthur trying to...
* Shutdown? State may not notice
* Rep. Bob Dold

* US Lawmakers Rip DoD Over $125 Billion in ......
* US Lawmakers Rip DoD Over $125B in Waste -......

* Mark Kirk Says His Goodbyes From The Senat......

* A “Kennedy” for Illinois governor; is GOP taking notion too seriously?
* Rauner to sign Exelon bailout bill Wednesday
* Crowd cheers after Navy admiral blasts Kaepernick's national anthem protest
* Proposed Zoning Change For Vintage Building At Leland & Sheridan
* From and Chougule: Right-to-Work Zones in Deep-Blue Illinois?
* Trump campaign says nominee Scott Pruitt will reverse EPA's anti-energy agenda
* Akin: Downstate voters send clear message: Stop lawsuit abuse in Illinois
* Rauner repeats, "No budget. No pay"
* Blaming teachers. I am a “negative demographic change.” I ain’t dead yet.
* Living to0 long.


* Governor’s Export Awards Recipients Announced
* Governor Signs Legislation to Protect Jobs, Ratepayers and Taxpayers
* Give The Gift Of A Lifetime With A College Illinois!® 529 Prepaid Tuition Plan - College Illinois! can help limit or even eliminate future student loan debt
* Illinois Department of Veterans’ Affairs Hosts 75th Pearl Harbor Remembrance Day Ceremony
* IDHR Issues Reminder of Fair Housing Rights During Holiday Season - State law prohibits targeted, discriminatory restrictions on decorations and celebrations




      Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller