SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Poll shows collateral damage

Monday, Feb 3, 2014

* My weekly syndicated newspaper column

Without a doubt, the most overlooked aspect of Bruce Rauner’s multi million-dollar TV ad buy has been his advertising campaign’s repeated attacks on Gov. Pat Quinn.

“Career politicians are running our state into the ground, and Pat Quinn, he’s at the top of the heap,” Rauner says in one of his ads that have permeated the airwaves since last November. “Pat Quinn, a career politician who failed to deliver term limits,” a Rauner TV announcer declares in another spot.

The millions of dollars worth of ads are supposedly aimed at Republican primary voters, but, obviously, everybody else in the state is seeing them as well. And Quinn, who doesn’t have a well-funded primary opponent, hasn’t bothered to rebut any of Rauner’s multiple attacks. That could’ve been a huge mistake, particularly considering Illinois’ persistently high unemployment rates, the hostile national climate, the never-ending negative stories about the state’s finances and Quinn’s four-year history of low job performance scores.

If a new Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll is accurate, then Rauner’s months-long unrebutted attacks have helped knock Quinn into a shockingly deep hole.

According to the poll of 1,354 likely general election voters, all four of Quinn’s potential Republican primary opponents have pulled ahead of the long-unpopular Democratic governor.

The poll, taken January 30th, found that Sen. Bill Brady leads Gov. Quinn 48-39. Sen. Kirk Dillard and Treasurer Dan Rutherford are ahead of Quinn 46-37. And Rauner leads the governor 47-39.

The self-described party affiliation in the poll was 22 percent Republican and 38 percent Democratic, while 40 percent said they were independents. Nineteen percent of the polling universe was cell phone users.

“Pat Quinn has made a career out of overcoming the odds and the electorate clearly know more about him than the others,” said pollster Gregg Durham. “When that balances out, we may see a dramatically different picture.”

Yes, we may. But right now, voters know Pat Quinn and they really don’t like him.

According to the poll, which had a margin of error of +/-2.7 percent, a whopping 59 percent of likely voters disapprove of Gov. Quinn’s job performance. A mere 29 percent approve of his job performance and 12 percent were undecided.

The poll has Quinn leading his opponents in Chicago, but nowhere else. He’s ahead of Brady 63-25 in the city, and his lead there is similar against the other three as well.

But the Republicans average a surprising six-point lead over Quinn in the Cook County suburbs, which have been trending Democratic for years.

The margin was much higher in the collar counties, where the Republican field led Quinn by an average of 12 points each.

Downstate, though, Quinn is getting absolutely crushed. The GOP candidates’ average lead is a gigantic 30 percentage points each.

Take a look at the regional job approval breakdowns and you’ll see what’s behind this. According to the poll, a whopping 73 percent of Downstaters disapprove of Quinn’s job performance, while a mere 19 percent approve. Another 62 percent of collar county voters disapprove and just 32 percent approve. Suburban Cook voters disapprove of Quinn’s job performance by a 56-25 margin. Only in Chicago is Quinn above water, and even there, just 49 percent approve of his job performance, while 32 percent disapprove.

Among women, Quinn is doing just barely OK. He’s ahead of Brady and Rauner by a point, in front of Dillard by two points and trails Rutherford by a point.

Men, however, are going overwhelming for his Republican opponents. Brady leads Quinn by 24 points among men, Dillard leads him by 25 points and Rauner and Rutherford lead by 21 among males.

According to the poll, a mind-blowing 62 percent of men disapprove of Quinn’s job performance, while 57 percent of women disapprove. His approval ratings are abysmal. Just 24 percent of men approve, while 31 percent of women think he’s doing a good job.

The Republican candidates are also whomping the governor among independents, where they’re averaging a 56-24 lead.

The bottom line here is that the mostly union-financed TV advertising attacks on Bruce Rauner, which will supposedly kick off this week, had better do their magic and disqualify the newcomer or the kabillionaire candidate will just stay on the air until the fall, keeping his advertising foot on the governor’s already hobbled political neck for the rest of the year. It won’t be pretty.

Subscribers, of course, have complete crosstabs and all questions.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


12 Comments
  1. - Grandson of Man - Monday, Feb 3, 14 @ 10:07 am:

    If I’m not mistaken, Quinn was consistently losing to Brady in the polls during the last election, even losing to him by something like nine points just before the election.

    It’s still very early, and if there’s any consolation for Quinn, it’s that he probably has nowhere to go but up.


  2. - Formerly Known As... - Monday, Feb 3, 14 @ 10:30 am:

    At least he’s still more popular than Blago.

    I think.


  3. - wordslinger - Monday, Feb 3, 14 @ 11:12 am:

    Those are terrible numbers for Quinn.

    I can’t see how he’d respond with paid media at this point, however. What a muddle that would be before the primary.

    He’s going to have to ride it out and then whack hard starting in the summer. He’d be best off with Rauner. He’s a walking, talking negative spot.


  4. - Upon Further Review - Monday, Feb 3, 14 @ 11:12 am:

    I dislike Quinn’s posturing as a “Progressive” or a “Populist,” but, whenever push comes to shove, he rolls over and sells out. His political alliance with former State Senate President Emil Jones has almost destroyed the credibility and reputation of Chicago State University. Quinn could have appointed new trustees to rectify the situation and oust the boodlers, but he was more concerned with keeping the institution as a patronage plantation for those who deliver for him in the precincts. In past months, there have been discussions of activities at U of I and SIU, but CSU seldom gets scrutinized. It ought to given the headlines in both Chicago papers.


  5. - Statesman - Monday, Feb 3, 14 @ 11:41 am:

    The ILGOP is probably wise to NOT put too much credence into these numbers. Do we need to talk about Brady’s lead in 2010 and how that turned out. Keep your heads down and keep working against Quinn - not against each other knuckle heads.


  6. - langhorne - Monday, Feb 3, 14 @ 11:47 am:

    ABQ — anybody but quinn


  7. - CollegeStudent - Monday, Feb 3, 14 @ 12:24 pm:

    @Upon Further Review

    I’ve gotten the sense that Chicago State didn’t have much of a reputation or credibility to begin with. I think the bigger complaint is how the state is throwing good money after bad by steering resources to Chicago State that could really be used by the “directionals”


  8. - Almost the Weekend - Monday, Feb 3, 14 @ 12:51 pm:

    I know people disapprove of Quinn, but the real question is are all these GOP and Middle-Right Independents going to be able to unite around one candidate after March 18th. This GOP gubernatorial primary has been getting uglier every week and the union-financed TV ads aren’t even up yet.

    I can’t see Brady, Dillard, or Rutherford endorsing Rauner after the primary if he wins. Also with Rauner you have social-conservatives who will be staying home on November 4th because they have no reason to vote or motivation to.


  9. - jake - Monday, Feb 3, 14 @ 3:57 pm:

    The most certain thing about this campaign is that it will be ugly. I don’t believe there is a single candidate among the five that most people either like or admire. And before the campaign is over they will like or admire even the winner less than they do now. It will not be for those of weak stomach or faint heart.


  10. - Esteban - Monday, Feb 3, 14 @ 4:07 pm:

    Does anyone else think that Bill Daley maybe
    regrets dropping out of the race?


  11. - jake - Monday, Feb 3, 14 @ 6:11 pm:

    Bill Daley just did not have the stomach for doing what has to be done to win an election in Illinois. The person I really wish was in is Kwame Raoul.


  12. - Just The Way It Is One - Monday, Feb 3, 14 @ 7:37 pm:

    That was meant to read above: “…off by almost 3%…!”


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* $580 MILLION EXELON RATE HIKE?? That’s the price tag for their nuke bailout…EVERY YEAR!
* Rauner pumping dollars
* Rauner pushing IDOT back into the news stream
* Gov. Quinn runs new TV ad featuring FLOTUS
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* No, your eyes didn't deceive you
* Good morning!
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * Xiaomi to migrate data center from China to US and Singapore
        * Google Play Music gets Material Design, curated mood music
        * Why I almost didn’t buy the Nexus 6
        * Looksery Launches A Video Chatting App That Makes You Look More Attractive
        * Lumia x NatGeo: 5 things we learned from Stephen Alvarez
        * Oppo teases additional phone for next week’s launch event
        * Kindle Fire HDX 7″ bundled with Fire Phone, only from AT&T

        * Try Applying for a Business Credit Card, Even if You're Not a Business
        * Xbox Video On Windows Phone Updated
        * iPhone 6 “Dyegate” Surfaces
        * Ello makes a bold promise for an ad-free social network, but omits key details
        * Microsoft Sold 9.3 Million Lumia Smartphones
        * The Services That Prey on Us When We're Most Vulnerable
        * With Amazon, Google and Microsoft in the mix, can anyone else contend in public cloud?

        * Alexei Ramirez and Adam Eaton Gold Glove finalists, but maybe not f...
        * Longtime scout Provas passes away after battle with cancer
        * Eaton, Ramirez named AL Gold Glove finalists
        * Gold Glove Awards finalists revealed
        * White Sox AFL class features talented Anderson
        * Nori Aoki: The White Sox Killer of 2014
        * World Series Game 2: Notes and discussion


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        October 2014
        September 2014
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * Here is the latest Illinois news from The Assoc.....
        * Illinois awards $3M grant for Rockford clinic..
        * CREATE partners celebrate Englewood Flyover's o.....
        * Beardstown gets $2.5 million for community pool..
        * Quinn says he'll comply with hiring monitor..


        * Toddler taken from family found in Illinois
        * Man, 2-year-old boy killed by truck in Bloomington
        * Off-duty Chicago police officer shot and wounded
        * Illinois employees rescue woman from house fire
        * Gary killings put spotlight on abandoned buildings
        * Officials rethink vote-counting after AG decree
        * Quinn says he'll comply with hiring monitor
        * Complications arise just 12 days before Ill. vote
        * Vereen brothers square off when Bears visit Pats
        * Illinois GOP files lawsuit over poll practices

        * Officials rethink early vote-counting after Madigan ruling
        * Minimum wage increase supporters urge early voting
        * Sun-Times political reporter resigns following Rauner complaint
        * Minimum wage hike supporters urge early voting
        * Federal judge orders court-appointed monitor for IDOT hiring
        * Rep. Raymond Poe to undergo stem cell transplant
        * Bill Clinton campaigns for Quinn, Durbin
        * Quinn, Rauner spar over jobs, taxes
        * Election 2014: Learn about all the candidates
        * What to watch for in third governor debate tonight

        * Queen Elizabeth takes the glove off — to tweet
        * Few legal options for ex-Sun-Times reporter
        * Fast-growing Internet lender Enova going public next month
        * Quinn says he'll comply with hiring monitor
        * Sun-Times' colorful past in covering (and making) news


        * Illinois needs better way to deal with terminally ill inmates
        * At panel on school closings, board acknowledges more planning needed
        * Marina City residents reminded to watch their step during Wallenda’s walk
        * Republican senators question Quinn’s IDOT scandal response
        * Child who became ill on plane tests negative for Ebola
        * Tollway might permanently lower cost to open I-Pass account
        * Killer gets 27 years for throwing woman out 3rd-floor window
        * CPS wants to delay new standardized test, even though state already has said 'no'
        * Father Bob Botthof, teacher who became priest after losing wife, dies at 85
        * Scandal or not, Bring on that  federal monitor


        * Police release surveillance photo in Loop armed robberies
        * Englewood 5K race organizers seek to inspire peace and good health
        * 1 killed, 10 shot in overnight violence
        * Craft brewery on tap for Oak Park?
        * Off-duty Chicago cop shot during robbery attempt 'alert and talking'
        * Skokie school reopens after closing 2 days because of Instagram threat
        * Police wound gunman involved in fatal robbery in Auburn Gresham
        * 400 lawsuits seek $11 million from tollway scofflaws
        * Police in Ferguson committed human rights abuses: Amnesty International
        * Ebola test negative for child who fell ill on flight from Liberia to O'Hare


        * Prosecutors want more of indicted police commander’s 'bad acts' in court
        * Bedrock 66: Charlie Parr Plays Springfield Friday
        * Oberweis Would Back Federal Same Sex Marriage Law
        * Wild Bison Return To IL
        * Scary Story: The Diviner by Susan Vondrak
        * Artist Profile: Local Troubadour Tom Irwin
        * Real estate and religion: The tale of Seventeenth Church of Christ, Scientist
        * Suspicion lingers over Ebola treatment
        * Judge Orders Court Appointed Monitor For IDOT Hiring
        * 13th Dist. Candidates Talk NAFTA, Ebola During Springfield Debate


        * Our Opinion: Bell, Manar, Davidsmeyer endorsed in state legislative races
        * Craig Burns: Honesty, integrity in great supply at CWLP
        * E.J. Dionne: Ebola, pandering and courage
        * Esther Cepeda: Benefits of closing the word gap
        * Officials rethink early vote-counting after Madigan ruling
        * Our Opinion: Frerichs has the expertise to be Illinois treasurer
        * Robert Kaestner: Good education policy is good health policy
        * Eugene Robinson: Warren makes the case for a presidential run
        * Bernard Schoenburg: Local Rauner ad leaves out ‘everything Springfield isn’t’ line
        * Minimum wage increase supporters urge early voting


        * Toddler taken from Tennessee family found in Illinois
        * After 1st Ebola case in NYC, 3 others quarantined
        * Canadians seek to understand Parliament shooting
        * Trail of Tears touched many in Southern Illinois
        * Jacksonville man, 24, dead in shooting
        * John Groce IBA speech
        * Fatal truck accident
        * Pre-Halloween fun
        * PHOTOS: Durfee archaeologists
        * Oberweis shares concerns about country's future


        * WHO: 5 more Ebola vaccines to be tested in March
        * Aid group: Ebola contagion risk can't be zero
        * Sex slavery rampant in the suburbs, experts say
        * After 1st Ebola case in NYC, 3 others quarantined
        * Illinois coyotes key in capture of Iowa fugitive

        * Patrick Cannon defense strategy rare but n...
        * Feds fine Jesse Jackson Jr.'s campaign com...
        * Ex-Congressman Jesse Jackson Jr. faces sen...
        * Representative Jan Schakowsky Sends Letter...
        * Rep. candidate pushes to uphold marriage b...
        * Reps. Schakowsky and Waxman Introduce Bill...
        * Statement by Representative Jan Schakowsky...
        * U.S. House Passes Resolution Condemning An...
        * FAA Rejects Call For New O'Hare Noise Stud...
        * Representatives Quigley, Duckworth, Schako...

        * Military immigrant program halted...
        * Military immigrant program halted...
        * Military immigrant program halted...
        * Military immigrant program halted...
        * Military immigrant program halted...

        * U.S. Senator Mark Kirk to talk with Triton......
        * A Brief History of Michelle Obama Career-G......
        * Marco Rubio, Mark Kirk Warn John Kerry on ......

        * Where's Weyermuller? Breakfast with Ted Cruz and Chicago GOP
        * Oberweis on gay marriage: "Times Change....Attitudes Change"
        * Judge orders hiring monitor for Quinn's Department of Transportation
        * Sun-Times Springfield bureau chief Dave McKinney resigns
        * Illinois-based Sears to close 100 stores and layoff nearly 5,500 employees
        * Illinois GOP files lawsuit claiming election law violations in Rock Island
        * New Jersey Gov Christie says he works with Democrat legislature, so can Rauner
        * Democrat songwriter takes aim at Republican gubernatorial candidate [video]
        * Federal judge throws out Tea Party lawsuits against IRS
        * Democrat songwriter takes aim at GOP gubernatorial candidate [video]


        * Rauner rips Quinn on IDOT patronage oversight
        * New Ad: Labor leader backs Rauner
        * Jewish Newspapers Endorse Rauner for Governor
        * Statement from the Illinois Department of Public Health and Chicago Ebola Resource Network
        * TV Breaking News: Ethics blow for Pat Quinn




            Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller