SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Poll shows collateral damage

Monday, Feb 3, 2014

* My weekly syndicated newspaper column

Without a doubt, the most overlooked aspect of Bruce Rauner’s multi million-dollar TV ad buy has been his advertising campaign’s repeated attacks on Gov. Pat Quinn.

“Career politicians are running our state into the ground, and Pat Quinn, he’s at the top of the heap,” Rauner says in one of his ads that have permeated the airwaves since last November. “Pat Quinn, a career politician who failed to deliver term limits,” a Rauner TV announcer declares in another spot.

The millions of dollars worth of ads are supposedly aimed at Republican primary voters, but, obviously, everybody else in the state is seeing them as well. And Quinn, who doesn’t have a well-funded primary opponent, hasn’t bothered to rebut any of Rauner’s multiple attacks. That could’ve been a huge mistake, particularly considering Illinois’ persistently high unemployment rates, the hostile national climate, the never-ending negative stories about the state’s finances and Quinn’s four-year history of low job performance scores.

If a new Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll is accurate, then Rauner’s months-long unrebutted attacks have helped knock Quinn into a shockingly deep hole.

According to the poll of 1,354 likely general election voters, all four of Quinn’s potential Republican primary opponents have pulled ahead of the long-unpopular Democratic governor.

The poll, taken January 30th, found that Sen. Bill Brady leads Gov. Quinn 48-39. Sen. Kirk Dillard and Treasurer Dan Rutherford are ahead of Quinn 46-37. And Rauner leads the governor 47-39.

The self-described party affiliation in the poll was 22 percent Republican and 38 percent Democratic, while 40 percent said they were independents. Nineteen percent of the polling universe was cell phone users.

“Pat Quinn has made a career out of overcoming the odds and the electorate clearly know more about him than the others,” said pollster Gregg Durham. “When that balances out, we may see a dramatically different picture.”

Yes, we may. But right now, voters know Pat Quinn and they really don’t like him.

According to the poll, which had a margin of error of +/-2.7 percent, a whopping 59 percent of likely voters disapprove of Gov. Quinn’s job performance. A mere 29 percent approve of his job performance and 12 percent were undecided.

The poll has Quinn leading his opponents in Chicago, but nowhere else. He’s ahead of Brady 63-25 in the city, and his lead there is similar against the other three as well.

But the Republicans average a surprising six-point lead over Quinn in the Cook County suburbs, which have been trending Democratic for years.

The margin was much higher in the collar counties, where the Republican field led Quinn by an average of 12 points each.

Downstate, though, Quinn is getting absolutely crushed. The GOP candidates’ average lead is a gigantic 30 percentage points each.

Take a look at the regional job approval breakdowns and you’ll see what’s behind this. According to the poll, a whopping 73 percent of Downstaters disapprove of Quinn’s job performance, while a mere 19 percent approve. Another 62 percent of collar county voters disapprove and just 32 percent approve. Suburban Cook voters disapprove of Quinn’s job performance by a 56-25 margin. Only in Chicago is Quinn above water, and even there, just 49 percent approve of his job performance, while 32 percent disapprove.

Among women, Quinn is doing just barely OK. He’s ahead of Brady and Rauner by a point, in front of Dillard by two points and trails Rutherford by a point.

Men, however, are going overwhelming for his Republican opponents. Brady leads Quinn by 24 points among men, Dillard leads him by 25 points and Rauner and Rutherford lead by 21 among males.

According to the poll, a mind-blowing 62 percent of men disapprove of Quinn’s job performance, while 57 percent of women disapprove. His approval ratings are abysmal. Just 24 percent of men approve, while 31 percent of women think he’s doing a good job.

The Republican candidates are also whomping the governor among independents, where they’re averaging a 56-24 lead.

The bottom line here is that the mostly union-financed TV advertising attacks on Bruce Rauner, which will supposedly kick off this week, had better do their magic and disqualify the newcomer or the kabillionaire candidate will just stay on the air until the fall, keeping his advertising foot on the governor’s already hobbled political neck for the rest of the year. It won’t be pretty.

Subscribers, of course, have complete crosstabs and all questions.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

  1. - Grandson of Man - Monday, Feb 3, 14 @ 10:07 am:

    If I’m not mistaken, Quinn was consistently losing to Brady in the polls during the last election, even losing to him by something like nine points just before the election.

    It’s still very early, and if there’s any consolation for Quinn, it’s that he probably has nowhere to go but up.

  2. - Formerly Known As... - Monday, Feb 3, 14 @ 10:30 am:

    At least he’s still more popular than Blago.

    I think.

  3. - wordslinger - Monday, Feb 3, 14 @ 11:12 am:

    Those are terrible numbers for Quinn.

    I can’t see how he’d respond with paid media at this point, however. What a muddle that would be before the primary.

    He’s going to have to ride it out and then whack hard starting in the summer. He’d be best off with Rauner. He’s a walking, talking negative spot.

  4. - Upon Further Review - Monday, Feb 3, 14 @ 11:12 am:

    I dislike Quinn’s posturing as a “Progressive” or a “Populist,” but, whenever push comes to shove, he rolls over and sells out. His political alliance with former State Senate President Emil Jones has almost destroyed the credibility and reputation of Chicago State University. Quinn could have appointed new trustees to rectify the situation and oust the boodlers, but he was more concerned with keeping the institution as a patronage plantation for those who deliver for him in the precincts. In past months, there have been discussions of activities at U of I and SIU, but CSU seldom gets scrutinized. It ought to given the headlines in both Chicago papers.

  5. - Statesman - Monday, Feb 3, 14 @ 11:41 am:

    The ILGOP is probably wise to NOT put too much credence into these numbers. Do we need to talk about Brady’s lead in 2010 and how that turned out. Keep your heads down and keep working against Quinn - not against each other knuckle heads.

  6. - langhorne - Monday, Feb 3, 14 @ 11:47 am:

    ABQ — anybody but quinn

  7. - CollegeStudent - Monday, Feb 3, 14 @ 12:24 pm:

    @Upon Further Review

    I’ve gotten the sense that Chicago State didn’t have much of a reputation or credibility to begin with. I think the bigger complaint is how the state is throwing good money after bad by steering resources to Chicago State that could really be used by the “directionals”

  8. - Almost the Weekend - Monday, Feb 3, 14 @ 12:51 pm:

    I know people disapprove of Quinn, but the real question is are all these GOP and Middle-Right Independents going to be able to unite around one candidate after March 18th. This GOP gubernatorial primary has been getting uglier every week and the union-financed TV ads aren’t even up yet.

    I can’t see Brady, Dillard, or Rutherford endorsing Rauner after the primary if he wins. Also with Rauner you have social-conservatives who will be staying home on November 4th because they have no reason to vote or motivation to.

  9. - jake - Monday, Feb 3, 14 @ 3:57 pm:

    The most certain thing about this campaign is that it will be ugly. I don’t believe there is a single candidate among the five that most people either like or admire. And before the campaign is over they will like or admire even the winner less than they do now. It will not be for those of weak stomach or faint heart.

  10. - Esteban - Monday, Feb 3, 14 @ 4:07 pm:

    Does anyone else think that Bill Daley maybe
    regrets dropping out of the race?

  11. - jake - Monday, Feb 3, 14 @ 6:11 pm:

    Bill Daley just did not have the stomach for doing what has to be done to win an election in Illinois. The person I really wish was in is Kwame Raoul.

  12. - Just The Way It Is One - Monday, Feb 3, 14 @ 7:37 pm:

    That was meant to read above: “…off by almost 3%…!”

Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.

* Prepare for a skewering
* Rauner apologizes for no budget, blames Dems
* This just in... Mautino to be recommended for Auditor General
* Study: Four of the ten worst cities for African-Americans are in Illinois
* Lip service
* Today's quotable
* War of words resumes
* BND collects two more scalps
* McCarter gearing up to challenge Shimkus
* Caption contest!
* Sorry to see him go, happy to see the other guy leave
* "Unclear" on the concept
* A complete leadership stalemate
* Behind the impasse
* Report: Child care more expensive than state university tuition
* We're not exactly Old Faithful here
* Good morning!
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's blog posts

Visit our advertisers...







Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

    * Users Pummel YouTube’s iOS Update With One-Star Reviews
    * BLOCKS modular smartwatch to launch on Kickstarter October 13
    * PAC-MAN and Princess Ida visit the world of Crossy Road
    * Top CompTIA certification training is up to 95 percent off
    * AT&T confirms plans to carry Lumia 950, both it and 950 XL could be carrier exclusives
    * Facebook, Eutelsat partner to launch Internet satellite for Africa next year
    * In the Surface series, everything is a detachable computer

    * Hawk Harrelson's reduced schedule creates opportunity for White Sox...
    * Holliday, Ventura connection goes way back
    * 2015 in 3 words: Sale, Abreu, inconsistency
    * Hawk cutting '16 broadcast schedule
    * Podcast: Shifting the target
    * White Sox face toll of three losing seasons
    * Montas solid, but offense silenced in finale


    Main Menu
    Pundit rankings
    Subscriber Content
    Blagojevich Trial
    Updated Posts

    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    August 2014
    July 2014
    June 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014
    December 2013
    November 2013
    October 2013
    September 2013
    August 2013
    July 2013
    June 2013
    May 2013
    April 2013
    March 2013
    February 2013
    January 2013
    December 2012
    November 2012
    October 2012
    September 2012
    August 2012
    July 2012
    June 2012
    May 2012
    April 2012
    March 2012
    February 2012
    January 2012
    December 2011
    November 2011
    October 2011
    September 2011
    August 2011
    July 2011
    June 2011
    May 2011
    April 2011
    March 2011
    February 2011
    January 2011
    December 2010
    November 2010
    October 2010
    September 2010
    August 2010
    July 2010
    June 2010
    May 2010
    April 2010
    March 2010
    February 2010
    January 2010
    December 2009
    November 2009
    October 2009
    September 2009
    August 2009
    July 2009
    June 2009
    May 2009
    April 2009
    March 2009
    February 2009
    January 2009
    December 2008
    November 2008
    October 2008
    September 2008
    August 2008
    July 2008
    June 2008
    May 2008
    April 2008
    March 2008
    February 2008
    January 2008
    December 2007
    November 2007
    October 2007
    September 2007
    August 2007
    July 2007
    June 2007
    May 2007
    April 2007
    March 2007
    February 2007
    January 2007
    December 2006
    November 2006
    October 2006
    September 2006
    August 2006
    July 2006
    June 2006
    May 2006
    April 2006
    March 2006
    February 2006
    January 2006
    December 2005
    April 2005
    March 2005
    February 2005
    January 2005
    December 2004
    November 2004
    October 2004

    Blog*Spot Archives
    November 2005
    October 2005
    September 2005
    August 2005
    July 2005
    June 2005
    May 2005


    RSS Feed 2.0
    Comments RSS 2.0


    * 98-Day Illinois Budget Impasse Could Delay 911 .....
    * 98-Day Illinois Budget Impasse Could Delay 911 .....
    * War of words resumes - The Capitol Fax Blog (blog)..
    * AFSCME says Rauner trying to end step increases.....

    * Police superintendent says he'll stay on despite complaints
    * Panel recommends Rep. Mautino for Illinois Auditor General
    * Illinois stops paying local health clinics for STD testing
    * EXCHANGE: Nachusa Grasslands plans to add bison this fall
    * Route 66 Museum to hold auction in Springfield
    * Suburban college recognized for campus safety efforts
    * Metra installs charging stations downtown Chicago
    * Police superintendent to face alderman demanding his firing
    * Terrorism suspect due in court for 2nd straight day
    * Chicago aldermen demand firing of police superintendent

    * Panel recommends Rep. Mautino for Illinois auditor general
    * Illinois stops paying local health clinics for STD testing
    * Chancellor Koch: Budget pressures growing for UIS, other schools
    * Illinois to implement new ratings for schools, districts
    * Budget impasse cuts services for domestic abuse victims
    * Weaver tapped to replace LaHood in Illinois Senate
    * Peoria city councilman tapped to replace Darin LaHood in Illinois Senate
    * Illinois budget impasse affecting emergency call systems
    * Legal marijuana stirs hope in southern Illinois town
    * Statehouse Insider: We have a problem. Is anyone there?

    * U of C names new law school dean
    * For an hourly fee, Argonne Lab will help you make batteries
    * Fiat Chrysler workers, including thousands in Belvidere, poised to strike
    * Fiat Chrysler workers, including thousands in Illinois, poised to strike
    * Cook County to downsize aging Oak Forest health campus

    * McCarthy ‘extremely disrespectful’ to council, one alderman tells him
    * Emanuel on McCarthy: ‘I’m standing by him’
    * Neighborhood fests overlooked, some aldermen say
    * Blackhawks are getting playoff beards ready before the season even starts
    * Check out these pictures from the Blackhawks’ ring ceremony
    * McCarthy promotes cop under investigation in Daley nephew case
    * Brown: Demand for McCarthy’s ouster puts Emanuel on spot
    * Raffi Torres suspended 41 games for check to head
    * Bryan Bickell gets the message from Hawks
    * City Council Black Caucus: Fire Supt. McCarthy

    * 5 wounded in daytime shootings
    * Cook County OKs Palos Park annexation plan
    * Suit filed over keyless car for Highland Park couple who were poisoned
    * Illinois Fortune 500 companies have $135 billion stashed overseas: report
    * Lakeshore cities expect marine sanctuary to have huge impact
    * Illinois reducing fees on college savings plan
    * $310.5 million Powerball winner comes forward
    * Emanuel rejects call by black aldermen to fire top cop
    * FAA proposes nearly $2 million fine against Chicago drone operator
    * Man dead, 2 injured in Arlington Heights fire

    * Panel recommends Rep. Mautino for Illinois auditor general
    * Illinois stops paying local health clinics for STD testing
    * Kathleen Parker: The GOP’s (New) McCarthyism
    * Clark Bullard: Unclear if CWLP’s proposed rate changes are fair
    * Chancellor Koch: Budget pressures growing for UIS, other schools
    * Illinois to implement new ratings for schools, districts
    * Paul Findley: Boehner deserves souvenir from Pope's visit
    * Budget impasse cuts services for domestic abuse victims
    * Weaver tapped to replace LaHood in Illinois Senate
    * Illinois budget impasse affecting emergency call systems

    * UPDATED: I-74 crashes cause 4-hour delays
    * 10-06-15 Penny for Your Thoughts
    * Crashes clog I-74 near Mahomet
    * Mild pattern to largely continue
    * Route 66 Museum to hold auction in Springfield
    * Taste of Chicago earns $320,000
    * Sentencing set for Illinois trooper in roadside strip search
    * FAA proposes nearly $2 million fine against drone operator
    * Workers removing Ten Commandments from Oklahoma Capitol

    * Nekritz snubbed for top auditor job
    * Roosevelt students walk out to protest teacher cuts
    * Emergency sewer line repair costs in Lake Zurich
    * Egg Harbor Cafe in Schaumburg now open
    * Rookie Boswell latest to get a chance kicking for Steelers

    * House lawmakers overcome hurdle on key tra...
    * Rodney Davis talks funding with Bloomingto...
    * The agency that fought Illiana gets a new ...
    * Rep. Dold takes educational cruise down Ch...
    * Lawmakers decry high turnover rate of VA h...
    * CBD Oil, and politics
    * Simon considering state Senate bid
    * Killer Congressman Tom MacArthur trying to...
    * Shutdown? State may not notice
    * Rep. Bob Dold

    * Durbin urges House leadership to adopt tra......

    * Today's quotable - The Capitol Fax Blog (b......
    * Cubs in wild-card against Pirates: Sen. Ma......

    * Des Plaines sued for blocking rezoning to accommodate Muslim mosque
    * Audit commission recommends Democrat House member as new Auditor General
    * Mathieson: Lake County steers course with shaky state funding
    * Illinois' first lady appears in domestic violence PSA
    * Property Tax Appeals Assistance
    * GOP Presidential campaigns begin to take shape in Illinois
    * Drug use now rivals drunk driving as cause of fatal car crashes, study says
    * Halloween Jamboree At Chase Park (Leland and Ashland)
    * The city council Black caucus wants McCarthy to go
    * Meeting Regarding Future of 931-933 Belle Plaine

    * IEMA Announces Elgin Community College Attains ‘Ready to Respond Campus’ Designation - Elgin one of five Illinois campuses to receive distinction
    * New Mortgage Loan Interface Increases Efficiency, Compliance
    * State Fire Marshal Ushers In Fire Prevention Week - “Hear the Beep Where You Sleep!”
    * October Is Illinois College Application Month! - Over 130 High Schools Will Hold Events to Help Students Get to College
    * Illinois Takes Part in Nationwide Community Banking Study, Findings Announced

      Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller