SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Poll shows collateral damage

Monday, Feb 3, 2014

* My weekly syndicated newspaper column

Without a doubt, the most overlooked aspect of Bruce Rauner’s multi million-dollar TV ad buy has been his advertising campaign’s repeated attacks on Gov. Pat Quinn.

“Career politicians are running our state into the ground, and Pat Quinn, he’s at the top of the heap,” Rauner says in one of his ads that have permeated the airwaves since last November. “Pat Quinn, a career politician who failed to deliver term limits,” a Rauner TV announcer declares in another spot.

The millions of dollars worth of ads are supposedly aimed at Republican primary voters, but, obviously, everybody else in the state is seeing them as well. And Quinn, who doesn’t have a well-funded primary opponent, hasn’t bothered to rebut any of Rauner’s multiple attacks. That could’ve been a huge mistake, particularly considering Illinois’ persistently high unemployment rates, the hostile national climate, the never-ending negative stories about the state’s finances and Quinn’s four-year history of low job performance scores.

If a new Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll is accurate, then Rauner’s months-long unrebutted attacks have helped knock Quinn into a shockingly deep hole.

According to the poll of 1,354 likely general election voters, all four of Quinn’s potential Republican primary opponents have pulled ahead of the long-unpopular Democratic governor.

The poll, taken January 30th, found that Sen. Bill Brady leads Gov. Quinn 48-39. Sen. Kirk Dillard and Treasurer Dan Rutherford are ahead of Quinn 46-37. And Rauner leads the governor 47-39.

The self-described party affiliation in the poll was 22 percent Republican and 38 percent Democratic, while 40 percent said they were independents. Nineteen percent of the polling universe was cell phone users.

“Pat Quinn has made a career out of overcoming the odds and the electorate clearly know more about him than the others,” said pollster Gregg Durham. “When that balances out, we may see a dramatically different picture.”

Yes, we may. But right now, voters know Pat Quinn and they really don’t like him.

According to the poll, which had a margin of error of +/-2.7 percent, a whopping 59 percent of likely voters disapprove of Gov. Quinn’s job performance. A mere 29 percent approve of his job performance and 12 percent were undecided.

The poll has Quinn leading his opponents in Chicago, but nowhere else. He’s ahead of Brady 63-25 in the city, and his lead there is similar against the other three as well.

But the Republicans average a surprising six-point lead over Quinn in the Cook County suburbs, which have been trending Democratic for years.

The margin was much higher in the collar counties, where the Republican field led Quinn by an average of 12 points each.

Downstate, though, Quinn is getting absolutely crushed. The GOP candidates’ average lead is a gigantic 30 percentage points each.

Take a look at the regional job approval breakdowns and you’ll see what’s behind this. According to the poll, a whopping 73 percent of Downstaters disapprove of Quinn’s job performance, while a mere 19 percent approve. Another 62 percent of collar county voters disapprove and just 32 percent approve. Suburban Cook voters disapprove of Quinn’s job performance by a 56-25 margin. Only in Chicago is Quinn above water, and even there, just 49 percent approve of his job performance, while 32 percent disapprove.

Among women, Quinn is doing just barely OK. He’s ahead of Brady and Rauner by a point, in front of Dillard by two points and trails Rutherford by a point.

Men, however, are going overwhelming for his Republican opponents. Brady leads Quinn by 24 points among men, Dillard leads him by 25 points and Rauner and Rutherford lead by 21 among males.

According to the poll, a mind-blowing 62 percent of men disapprove of Quinn’s job performance, while 57 percent of women disapprove. His approval ratings are abysmal. Just 24 percent of men approve, while 31 percent of women think he’s doing a good job.

The Republican candidates are also whomping the governor among independents, where they’re averaging a 56-24 lead.

The bottom line here is that the mostly union-financed TV advertising attacks on Bruce Rauner, which will supposedly kick off this week, had better do their magic and disqualify the newcomer or the kabillionaire candidate will just stay on the air until the fall, keeping his advertising foot on the governor’s already hobbled political neck for the rest of the year. It won’t be pretty.

Subscribers, of course, have complete crosstabs and all questions.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


12 Comments
  1. - Grandson of Man - Monday, Feb 3, 14 @ 10:07 am:

    If I’m not mistaken, Quinn was consistently losing to Brady in the polls during the last election, even losing to him by something like nine points just before the election.

    It’s still very early, and if there’s any consolation for Quinn, it’s that he probably has nowhere to go but up.


  2. - Formerly Known As... - Monday, Feb 3, 14 @ 10:30 am:

    At least he’s still more popular than Blago.

    I think.


  3. - wordslinger - Monday, Feb 3, 14 @ 11:12 am:

    Those are terrible numbers for Quinn.

    I can’t see how he’d respond with paid media at this point, however. What a muddle that would be before the primary.

    He’s going to have to ride it out and then whack hard starting in the summer. He’d be best off with Rauner. He’s a walking, talking negative spot.


  4. - Upon Further Review - Monday, Feb 3, 14 @ 11:12 am:

    I dislike Quinn’s posturing as a “Progressive” or a “Populist,” but, whenever push comes to shove, he rolls over and sells out. His political alliance with former State Senate President Emil Jones has almost destroyed the credibility and reputation of Chicago State University. Quinn could have appointed new trustees to rectify the situation and oust the boodlers, but he was more concerned with keeping the institution as a patronage plantation for those who deliver for him in the precincts. In past months, there have been discussions of activities at U of I and SIU, but CSU seldom gets scrutinized. It ought to given the headlines in both Chicago papers.


  5. - Statesman - Monday, Feb 3, 14 @ 11:41 am:

    The ILGOP is probably wise to NOT put too much credence into these numbers. Do we need to talk about Brady’s lead in 2010 and how that turned out. Keep your heads down and keep working against Quinn - not against each other knuckle heads.


  6. - langhorne - Monday, Feb 3, 14 @ 11:47 am:

    ABQ — anybody but quinn


  7. - CollegeStudent - Monday, Feb 3, 14 @ 12:24 pm:

    @Upon Further Review

    I’ve gotten the sense that Chicago State didn’t have much of a reputation or credibility to begin with. I think the bigger complaint is how the state is throwing good money after bad by steering resources to Chicago State that could really be used by the “directionals”


  8. - Almost the Weekend - Monday, Feb 3, 14 @ 12:51 pm:

    I know people disapprove of Quinn, but the real question is are all these GOP and Middle-Right Independents going to be able to unite around one candidate after March 18th. This GOP gubernatorial primary has been getting uglier every week and the union-financed TV ads aren’t even up yet.

    I can’t see Brady, Dillard, or Rutherford endorsing Rauner after the primary if he wins. Also with Rauner you have social-conservatives who will be staying home on November 4th because they have no reason to vote or motivation to.


  9. - jake - Monday, Feb 3, 14 @ 3:57 pm:

    The most certain thing about this campaign is that it will be ugly. I don’t believe there is a single candidate among the five that most people either like or admire. And before the campaign is over they will like or admire even the winner less than they do now. It will not be for those of weak stomach or faint heart.


  10. - Esteban - Monday, Feb 3, 14 @ 4:07 pm:

    Does anyone else think that Bill Daley maybe
    regrets dropping out of the race?


  11. - jake - Monday, Feb 3, 14 @ 6:11 pm:

    Bill Daley just did not have the stomach for doing what has to be done to win an election in Illinois. The person I really wish was in is Kwame Raoul.


  12. - Just The Way It Is One - Monday, Feb 3, 14 @ 7:37 pm:

    That was meant to read above: “…off by almost 3%…!”


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Slightly redacted
* About that new ad...
* You can't go without an invite
* Beware the reformers
* *** UPDATED x1 - IEA backs Mitchell *** CTU breaks with organized labor on Christian Mitchell race
* AFSCME responds point by point
* Rauner claims he will offer "more compromises" at leaders' meeting
* #FundEIU
* At least our primary is in March
* *** UPDATED x1 - SEIU sends "cease and desist" letter *** Rate the new Dunkin and Schimpf ads
* Question of the day
* Museum to reopen soon, as long as MJM goes along
* "I cannot understand why union members would not love that"
* Poe again opposes McCann in GOP primary
* Behind the HQ PR pops
* If at first you don't succeed...
* Remember this quote
* Everyone failed Laquan McDonald
* He hasn't seen anything like this
* State owes top three medical providers $111 million
* Edgar bucks Rauner, endorses Acklin
* Another clue?
* *** UPDATED x1 - Alleged Kirk meeting "never occurred" *** And you think Rahm has troubles?
* Chaos is a feature, not a bug
* Our elected officials need to tell us: do you support the Chicago Teacher’s Union’s contract rejection?
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

  
* Nexus 5X discounts won’t last much longer — February 12, to be exact
* Ballmer: Nadella needs “clear path forward” for Windows 10 Mobile
* GameBattles enters the Play Store
* Google CEO Sundar Pichai makes more in 1 year than you’ll ever make in your life
* 1Password 6 updated with Material Design makeover and fingerprint unlock
* Rapala Daily Catch lets you virtually fish to your heart’s content
* India bans zero-rate schemes, including Facebook’s

* 7 White Sox who could use a rebound season
* This week in sabermetrics: The screwball, Mark Buehrle, and launch ...
* 2016 Fantasy Player Preview
* ALL TIME SSS POST AND REC TOTALS
* White Sox Minor Leaguer Shearrow suspended
* Spring not far away as truck heads to Arizona
* This week in White Sox: Sun sets on Andre Ethier rumor

...............


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress

Loading


* Illinois State Museum says it has reached deal .....
* Illinois State Museum says it has reached deal .....
* Governor Rauner speaking to Rockford Chamber on.....
* Illinois State Museum, Dickson Mounds could reo.....
* Decision on National Guard armory in Delavan de.....


* Eastern Illinois University announces layoffs, furloughs
* Chicago State students, faculty protest budget impasse
* Democrats vying for US Senate talk up experience, background
* Drew Peterson murder-for-hire trial again postponed
* Illinois State Museum says it has reached deal to reopen
* Public can't attend Obama's speech at Illinois House
* Report: Police program helped man who prostituted teen
* College-accrediting agency sends warning amid budget impasse
* 3 teens arrested after pursuit in stolen vehicle in Rockford
* EXCHANGE: Little Free Library keeps kids reading

* Obama looking forward to fun visit to Springfield, his spokesman says
* Democrats vying for U.S. Senate talk up experience, background
* Illinois State Museum could reopen within weeks if changes approved, DNR director says
* Obama looking forward to fun visit, his spokesman says
* Some neighboring state museums surviving without admission fee
* College-accrediting agency sends warning amid budget impasse
* School funding overhaul again faces long odds in legislature
* School funding overhaul again faces long odds at Statehouse
* AFSCME reviews legal options in wake of member survey
* School funding overhaul again faces long odds

* Chicago teen's death shines light on police code of silence
* Five things to know about U of C Medicine's trauma center reversal
* Apollo Education to be taken private in $1.1 billion deal
* Sparton Corp. CEO departs after activist shareholder complaints
* Sparton CEO departs after activist shareholder complaints


* Illinois among 8 states with significant drop in uninsured: report
* Georgia Nicols horoscopes for Feb. 9
* Dear Abby: Boy, 7, wondering about his drug-abusing mom
* Blackhawks haven’t had much time between games until now
* Rahm to propose plan to boost women, minority work on city projects
* Chicago State University students protest state budget impasse
* Preckwinkle: Layoffs loom unless legislators pass state budget
* Rauner tells Wheeling leaders: Illinois should aim ‘to be average’
* Can you identify this Blackhawks star?
* Sweet: Obama won’t be ‘back-seat driver’ in Springfield


* 3 bodies found in Oak Forest home
* Metra: Cause of Monday derailment unknown
* Police: 2 accused of injuring paramedics in Printers Row
* School district agrees to pay $273K to lawyer who sued over big bleachers
* Man sentenced to 2 life sentences in 2009 spree killings of 2
* Anonymous donors pledge $450,000 in effort to save Woodlawn church
* Beach Park man charged with DUI in crash with squad car
* 1 killed, 1 injured in shootings
* Aurora man charged with DUI after hitting police car
* Aurora to consider settlement with wrongly imprisoned man


* Obama looking forward to fun visit to Springfield, his spokesman says
* Democrats vying for U.S. Senate talk up experience, background
* Illinois State Museum could reopen within weeks if changes approved, DNR director says
* Kathleen Parker: Hillary's golden tongue
* Obama looking forward to fun visit, his spokesman says
* Some neighboring state museums surviving without admission fee
* College-accrediting agency sends warning amid budget impasse
* Democrats vying for U.S. Senate talk up experience, background
* School funding overhaul again faces long odds in legislature
* U.S. Rep. John Shimkus: Come visit Galatia, Mr. President


* GCMS girls open postseason with romp
* Area Class 1A/2A postseason basketball storylines
* Which wrestlers are going to sectionals?
* Area prep statistics: Boys' swimming and diving (Feb. 9)
* Monday's highlights: Mahomet, Clinton girls win
* Class 2A girls' regional roundup: CG/B surprises Sullivan
* Class 1A girls' regional roundup: Illineks surprise Tribe
* Lining up the Big Ten's point guards
* Illini trying to sort out point guard troubles
* Ballot Breakdown: Maryland new to No. 1 spot


* Lillard has 33 to lead Blazers past Grizzlies 112-106
* Girls basketball: Monday, Feb. 8 scoreboard
* Girls gymnastics: Monday, Feb. 8 scoreboard
* Boys basketball: Monday, Feb. 8 scoreboard
* Auguste's 19 helps Notre Dame to 89-83 win over Clemson

* House lawmakers overcome hurdle on key tra...
* Rodney Davis talks funding with Bloomingto...
* The agency that fought Illiana gets a new ...
* Rep. Dold takes educational cruise down Ch...
* Lawmakers decry high turnover rate of VA h...
* CBD Oil, and politics
* Simon considering state Senate bid
* Killer Congressman Tom MacArthur trying to...
* Shutdown? State may not notice
* Rep. Bob Dold

* Budget Impasse Affecting Compliance with t......
* Endorsement: Schneider our choice in key C......

* VA Choice Program A Failed Joke Says Senat......
* Democrats vying for US Senate talk up expe......

* Getting an education becoming such a hassle, what w/ all the politicking
* Governor, IDOT Propose Toll Lanes To Ease Congestion On I-55
* Travis Campaign Calls Mitchell A 'Rauner Democrat' In 26th District Race
* U.S. Economy Added 151,000 Jobs In January, Unemployment Rate Dips To 4.9%
* Chicago State University Students Protest Against Illinois Budget Stalemate (VIDEO)
* Open letters
* We get letters.
* Quotes of the weird quiz.
* Tree-mendous Changes At Buena Park Circle
* Joliet Police Department To Get 50 New Tasers


* Emergency Management Officials, National Weather Service Encourage Winter Preparedness - November is Winter Weather Preparedness Month in Illinois
* Keep Your Family Safe This Winter - November through February are leading months for carbon monoxide related incidents
* Governor Takes Bill Action
* Illinois Department of Labor Director Hugo Chaviano Awards Governor’s Award for Contributions in Health and Safety to the Illinois Refining Division of Marathon Petroleum Company LP
* State Regulator Elected Treasurer of Interstate Medical Licensure Compact




Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller