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*** UPDATED x2 *** Labor unions halt TV ad blitz against Rauner

Tuesday, Mar 11, 2014

* I told subscribers about this development earlier this morning. Greg Hinz followed up

In a critical development in the GOP race for governor, a union-backed group that had spent millions of dollars on TV ads blasting front-runner Bruce Rauner has decided to end its campaign, just as the race enters the crucial last week.

Michael Murray, a spokesman for the Illinois Freedom PAC, said the group has spent $3.1 million so far ripping Mr. Rauner but will spend no more, effective immediately.

Mr. Murray denied a report in Capitol Fax that unions that funded the effort concluded Mr. Rauner now is too far ahead to lose the race, and didn’t want to throw good money after bad. Rather, he insisted, “We feel we have accomplished our goal.”

“We wanted to highlight some issues with Bruce Rauner that the middle-class families of Illinois needed to be made aware of,” he said. “Now that we have achieved that goal, and all the top candidates are on the air, it’s up to their campaigns to make their final case.”

Yeah, OK. They “accomplished their goal” and now they go dark a week out? Right.

*** UPDATE 1 *** The full statement from Mike Murray…

We wanted to highlight some issues with Bruce Rauner that the middle class families of Illinois needed to be made aware of. You saw from the Tribune poll and Rauner’s reaction that we did just that. Now that we have achieved that goal, and all the top candidates are on the air, it’s up to the campaigns to make their final case.

*** UPDATE 2 *** Tribune

Illinois Freedom raised more than $3.6 million and had begun a heavy schedule of TV advertising in early February. But a television industry official who asked not to be identified said the PAC’s spending on TV dropped noticeably on March 1 and fell even more this week. Murray said the group’s ads will run through the end of the week.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


81 Comments
  1. - Cassidy - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 11:30 am:

    The only logical explanation is the one they denied. The unions should be pretty embarrassed to raise such alarm bells and then to stop and slink away.


  2. - truthteller - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 11:33 am:

    Smart move. Bloody up Rauner, then endorse Dillard, give Dillard big money. Dillard can buy tv time for half the price that an independent PAC can. Remember how Obama bought as much tv time as the Repubs for half the price?

    Can’t believe two savvy guys like Rich and Hinz couldn’t figure this one out.


  3. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 11:33 am:

    “S.S. Rauner”, the yacht, weathered the storm, now the rainbow is in the sky, the sun burns away the dried out storm clouds, the waves have subsided, and port is visible in the distance…

    “Next port, arrival date; November 4, 2014…”

    Came to the “Rescue” far, far too late, leaving 5 days too early… can’t sell that your…plan… fell into place.

    Fail.


  4. - Wensicia - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 11:33 am:

    They’re conceding the race to Rauner.


  5. - Johnny Q. Suburban - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 11:39 am:

    Michael Murray, speaking in front of a large “Mission Accomplished” banner on an aircraft carrier…


  6. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 11:42 am:

    ===Smart move. Bloody up Rauner, then endorse Dillard, give Dillard big money. ===

    If that was the case, it might possibly be a smart move, but it’s not what I was told yesterday.


  7. - A guy... - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 11:42 am:

    ===“We feel we have accomplished our goal.”=== You know, the goal that they’ve ticked off their rank and file for spending “their” money in this manner. They’re waving the white flag $3M later on an effort that was neither honest or substantive from the very beginning. This was gross mismanagement of their money. Stupid, incredibly flawed and foolish thinking from the beginning on this. They underestimated who and what they were up against and thought a few mil at this point would be them flexing their muscle. Lots of flab. They should be totally embarrassed by their arrogance. OK, kids, have at me, but the proof is in the pudding. Just ask Michael Murray for his latest transparent denial. Ugh.


  8. - Whatever - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 11:42 am:

    What a waste of money. The effort was completely ineffective, and exposed the union’s poor campaign strategy. It’s a REPUBLICAN primary, guys!! You should have picked some issues/attacks that would motivate REPUBLICAN primary voters.


  9. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 11:43 am:

    Too little, too late.


  10. - A guy... - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 11:44 am:

    === truthteller - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 11:33 am:

    Smart move. Bloody up Rauner, then endorse Dillard, give Dillard big money. Dillard can buy tv time for half the price that an independent PAC can. Remember how Obama bought as much tv time as the Repubs for half the price?

    Can’t believe two savvy guys like Rich and Hinz couldn’t figure this one out.====
    Yeah, that’s the ticket.


  11. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 11:45 am:

    ==“We feel we have accomplished our goal.”==

    That goal being raising funds to pocket, not actually win.


  12. - Walter Mitty - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 11:45 am:

    And this spoke right to the biggest talking point for Rauner… Union boses… This pull out only helps him in the general…They are writing his narrative. They should have stayed the course once it was forged… Does the timing of this have anything to do with Quinn’s boondoggle? Do they think it’s good money after bad for that reason…?


  13. - From the 'Dale to HP - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 11:48 am:

    This assumes that the Unions want Dillard to be the GOP nominee. I’m not so sure. Few body shots to Rauner heading into the primary to put it somewhere in everyone’s mind and start driving up those negatives.

    This assumes that Quinn has a better shot of beating Rauner than Dillard, which I think most people would agree with.


  14. - Cassandra - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 11:52 am:

    Are they afraid of a backlash in Rauner’s direction? What are the polls showing about attitudes of non-union citizens towards unions, especially public unions. Certainly there is an argument that our taxes are going up and up partly because our public servants are an expensive, politically powerful class with compensation and protections that no longer exist for most workers. Rauner seems to be making some headway with versions of this argument. But I haven’t seen much polling.


  15. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 11:55 am:

    ===This assumes that Quinn has a better shot of beating Rauner than Dillard, which I think most people would agree with. ===

    Their best shot was the primary.


  16. - ground - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 11:58 am:

    Here comes the over heated crowing of the backseat blog campaign experts. Rauner’s negatives did go up and the message was seen by not just Republicans, but Dems and independents who will vote in the general. So, the “total failure” “complete waste” comments are over the top.
    I think the bigger story is the obvious division in the union coalition and who is the leak that is hurting the cause? Someone is clearly helping Rauner from inside the union group, whether that is truly their intent or not. Coalitions and egos are not pretty things……


  17. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 11:58 am:

    ===Someone is clearly helping Rauner from inside the union group===

    LOL

    Are you going on a strawberry hunt any time soon?


  18. - Spagnost - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 12:01 pm:

    I would reserve judgement on how effective the ads were when I see what his negatives are in a general election poll match up. If it’s a matter of wanting him to win the primary and then bloodying him up some more after the primary and saving the money now I get it… to an extent. Should have just kept it going through the primary either way though.


  19. - Now What? - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 12:01 pm:

    Quick polling indicates that while the Dill is closing, Raun-bo is going to pull this out. Unions would love to endorse Dillard if he had enough steam, just to stick it to Quinn. It’s all about friends in the GA, not the governorship. Quinn will slaughter Rauner, thus Unions save their money and make a bigger statement with a “no endorsement” in the General Election. Rank and file will not get behind Quinn.


  20. - Demoralized - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 12:02 pm:

    ==effort that was neither honest or substantive==

    What wasn’t honest about it? That Rauner is an enemy of the unions? Seems pretty honest to me.


  21. - ground - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 12:02 pm:

    Rich, is that leak helping the effort against Rauner?


  22. - Don't forget - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 12:09 pm:

    It might be simpler. Many of the same unions that funded Illinois Freedom are now funding pro-Dillard endorsements of their own, giving directly to the campaign and doing their own mail. There’s only so much money.


  23. - anonymoose - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 12:12 pm:

    Any chance the unions think they need to sit on their cash reserves for a future fight (right to work perhaps?) with a future Governor Rauner?


  24. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 12:13 pm:

    ===Quinn will slaughter Rauner===

    You sound just like every Republican I know six months ago.


  25. - Percival - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 12:20 pm:

    Ironically, by jumping in but failing, they actually have helped Rauner for the general.


  26. - Robo - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 12:23 pm:

    They jumped in too late to make a difference, but they probabbly thought if they put Dillard over the top, great. If not, they’ve begun the softening up process for the fall.


  27. - Johnny Q. Suburban - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 12:31 pm:

    I’m not sure why people are totally convinced Quinn beats Rauner but not Dillard. I think it’s probably the reverse. Have people forgotten Dillard during the SSM ordeal last fall? Rauner’s anti-union bit plays a whole heckuva lot better with Indies and suburbanites than Dillard’s anti-SSM.


  28. - MrJM - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 12:31 pm:

    Robert E. Lee, 1865: “We feel we have accomplished our goal.”

    Thomas Dewey, 1948: “We feel we have accomplished our goal.”

    George McGovern, 1972: “We feel we have accomplished our goal.”

    Chicago Cubs, 1909-Present: “We feel we have accomplished our goal.”

    Excelsior!

    – MrJM


  29. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 12:31 pm:

    ===Quinn will slaughter Rauner===

    Quinn has never “slaughtered” anyone. Every winning race he’s had has been tight.

    If he wins this one, it will be tight as well.


  30. - the Patriot - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 12:34 pm:

    This was never about beating Rauner. It was about saying we tried so they can justify dumping millions to Quinn. I have spoken to some union folks private and public sector and they shifted their focus on the general over a week ago.

    The unions are rolling out the Rauner=right to work. Rauner will take your pensions from working and retired state employees. Rauner =no collective bargaining for public sector employees. Forget he can’t do any of that without action from the Madigan controlled legislature.

    $50 million in ads won’t change their minds. Most union people still believe Romney sold K-Bee toy stores and personally fired the workers even though it was proven false. The union said it…so it is true.

    It is the same song from 06 and 10. We would vote for a republican, just not that one. The fact is unions will never endorse a republican in a general election in IL.

    The unions will again elect Quinn and spend 4 years crying and do it again.

    If I am wrong, explain how 250k IEA/AFSCME members in IL don’t single handedly win the primary for Dillard? The numbers don’t lie. They can elect the republican. They just plain don’t want to.


  31. - VanillaMan - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 12:35 pm:

    The union has the most to lose according to what they have been telling us on television, in print, in mailers, on the Internet and on the radio.

    So their surrender here is stunning. Retreating.


  32. - OneMan - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 12:37 pm:

    Any chance the unions think they need to sit on their cash reserves for a future fight (right to work perhaps?) with a future Governor Rauner?

    It would be real hard to bring that to referendum in Illinois and I don’t see the legislature passing that in my lifetime.

    The numbers were showing them that it wasn’t a good investment anymore. Save it for a later date.


  33. - Southwest Cook - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 12:37 pm:

    ===Quinn will slaughter Rauner===
    ===Rank and file will not get behind Quinn.===

    Cognitive dissonance?

    People seem to really underestimate Rauner…at their own peril.


  34. - Snucka - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 12:39 pm:

    I have ask ways believed that Rauner is just the type of candidate Quinn can potentially defeat by a wide margin in November. Yes, his money has totally overwhelmed three weak candidates in a GOP primary. He will raise way more than Quinn for the general. But the IL Democratic Party and all it’s constituencies will come out strong, and come forward with cash, to defeat Rauner. Brady/Dillard would have been able to hope for a quiet, low-turnout general in which the most passionate voters would be “anti-Springfield” Republicans/independents and the Democratic base had an incumbent with whom they’re disenchanted.

    Against Rauner, the most fired up voters will be that very Democratic base. The demographics and political landscape don’t favor Rauner in a race like that.


  35. - BR - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 12:42 pm:

    I would bet my money on an all out pro Dillard media blitz (from Dillard camp and Unions) combined with Rauner camp pounding Obama ad against Dillard. The unions are not dummies this move will be backed by something else. I take a gamble and say Brady will be advertising his new business…puppy walking services.


  36. - Meanderthal - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 12:44 pm:

    Game, set, match to Rauner. That was money very poorly spent.


  37. - Westward - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 12:47 pm:

    These ads the unions have run do zip for those voting in the general. Man, the majority of people who vote in general elections have squirrel brains. No way anyone recalls these ads come November. I like what Walter Mitty said! Union bosses: ineffective! Haha. I pretty much spit out my food laughing. Well played.


  38. - that guy - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 12:49 pm:

    So that was the knock out ad???


  39. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 12:50 pm:

    Quinn has never, ever, slaughtered anyone.

    This is a retreat. Anything else than that, 5 days out, is wishful thinking by Kool-Aid drinkers, or those with more hope than sense.

    The only last breath is a GOTV extravaganza, only matched by the “Punch 10″ orchestration, that took weeks upon weeks, and 2-3 deep in precincts for weeks upon weeks.

    The FOP, Teachers’ Unions, ASCME… 5 days out… matching “Punch 10″ in scope, size, impact, and plurality?

    As Danny Kaffee told Lt. Cdr. Galloway, “Maybe you ought to drink a little.”.

    Act II starts March 19th, some stories lack a happy ending, a Scooby-Doo ending, and some Act II endings are just that, an ending.


  40. - Norseman - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 12:51 pm:

    *** - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 12:13 pm:

    ===Quinn will slaughter Rauner===

    You sound just like every Republican I know six months ago. ***
    OUCH!


  41. - Walter Mitty - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 12:53 pm:

    All that is left is the Farmer moving to the middle… And what the career GOP guys are going to do? Do any of these 3 endorse him on the 19th?


  42. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 12:59 pm:

    === *** - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 12:13 pm:

    ===Quinn will slaughter Rauner===

    You sound just like every Republican I know six months ago. ***
    OUCH!===

    - Norseman -, we’re gonna need a bigger boat…


  43. - Louis G. Atsaves - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 1:02 pm:

    i never could figure out the logic of the union attack ads against Rauner during a Republican primary. They just strengthened Rauner’s position in the mind of GOP voters.

    They sure spent a ton of money to try to move up his negatives. Not a very productive use of their members’ money. And now the Rauner campaign has figured out the best method of responding to these type of ads, the general election attack ads may also be ineffective.


  44. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 1:03 pm:

    To the “Update”,

    Saw Dillard Ad today, guess who… Edgar… making Dillard’s “Closing Arguments”.

    Rauner might be better served making NO “Closing Argument”, but maybe introducing “Slip and Sue” in an Ad that stays on message(?)

    “Closing Arguments” are starting, but are they more if a “Swan Song” than a compelling reason?


  45. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 1:06 pm:

    ==Quinn will slaughter Rauner, thus Unions save their money and make a bigger statement with a “no endorsement” in the General Election. Rank and file will not get behind Quinn.==

    If the rank and file do not get behind Quinn, it will not be a “slaughter.”


  46. - chad - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 1:14 pm:

    Rauner looked like most of the other recent self-funders last summer. Talking loudly and absolutely about a few broad themes, and remaining fairly distant from the press. However, a difference is that once the campaign began to kick-in during the fall, Rauner continued to hoe to that script.

    Other recent self-funders were drawn into disadvantageous issue discussions or debates with experienced politicians, and also insisted on running their own campaigns. They also became financially tight just at the wrong times. Those tendencies play to the usual self-funder arrogance of believing that they are always the smartest people in the room about every topic.

    Rauner realized he was up against clever people, and refused to take the bait. He also actually listened to his hired staff, instead of being Bob Dole and acting as his own advance man. People like me took an early pass and for good reason, given the Illinois GOP experience. The unions were smart to pull out now and keep the cash for a better play, because there is no stopping this guy now.

    If Quinn and his supporters view him as just another rich guy to be easily butchered in left-leaning press and blagosphere outlets, they will pay. My middle-class nonpolitical mom thinks it’s just fine that Rauner brags about being in the top .01%. He may largely neutralize the economic issue – and then what will Quinn be left to do? Detailing where the anti-violence money went and trying to trick Rauner into debating why the income tax has to stay high? Yah, Quinn might just get splayed like a bug.


  47. - Carl Nyberg - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 1:15 pm:

    How will Obama play it in a Quinn vs. Rauner race?

    If Obama stays out, is it a tacit endorsement or Rahm/Rauner?

    If Obama raises big money for Quinn, is it a slap in the face to Rahm/Rauner?


  48. - Wally - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 1:18 pm:

    Well, on one radio station in Springfield, I have heard in excess of 20 Dillard ads TODAY. I know, I know, these votes don’t matter much but curious if others are hearing and seeing frequent Dillard ads around the state.


  49. - PQuinn - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 1:19 pm:

    With Rauner’s .01% comment and this move by the unions…the lastest We Ask America poll that’s currently in the field should be very interesting…


  50. - chad - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 1:22 pm:

    PQuinn: I think you are on to the .01% issue — I think Rauner innoculated himself on the economnic issues — have yet so see any traction on that issue, and this would be the guy to do it against.


  51. - OneMan - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 1:22 pm:

    All that is left is the Farmer moving to the middle… And what the career GOP guys are going to do? Do any of these 3 endorse him on the 19th?

    They all do… Decent chance he ends up governor, no one will want to be on his list…


  52. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 1:25 pm:

    –And what the career GOP guys are going to do? Do any of these 3 endorse him on the 19th?–

    Who cares? If any of them had the muscle for their endorsement to have any meaning, there would have been no Rauner.


  53. - Pot calling kettle - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 1:28 pm:

    I think the unions’ original goal was to get an acceptable Republican (Rutherford) into the general so they could get Quinn back for flipping on them. Instead, Dandy Dan’s campaign tanked and they were left with Dillard or nothing. Since Dillard’s campaign has been a dud, the fall back, fall back goal was to go after Rauner and see if Dillard rises enough to make a go of it. Unfortunately, it has been too little, too late. The new, fall back, fall back, fall back goal has been to counter some of Rauner’s ads and spread some doubt amongst the voters whose support they will need in the general.

    We have seen what happens if there is no answer to the Rauner blizzard, so casting some doubt is a necessary action. If the unions have more negatives about Rauner (and you can bet they do) it is a waste to use them now because that would make them old news in the Fall.

    So, I would say that they have achieved the most recent version of their goal, which has been changing. I don’t think the money was wasted because ceding the media field to Rauner would allow him to rise even further. Better to sow some doubt and let it sit there; he can’t be allowed to emerge from the primary completely unscathed. (Especially since the media has pretty much given him a pass.)


  54. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 1:31 pm:

    === Instead, Dandy Dan’s campaign tanked and they were left with Dillard or nothing. Since Dillard’s campaign has been a dud===

    That’s pretty much what I was going to write tomorrow.

    lol

    Now I gotta think of something else or just steal it.


  55. - naperville soccer mom - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 1:35 pm:

    Rauner has peaked! Anti-Rauner ads now mixed with positive Dillard ads. Race is on!


  56. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 1:36 pm:

    ===Race is on! ===

    Rauner Derangement Syndrome is apparently a very dangerous disease.


  57. - Snucka - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 1:42 pm:

    ==How will Obama play it in a Quinn vs. Rauner race?==

    I wouldn’t expect a sitting Democratic President to do anything less (or more) than endorse the sitting Democratic governor. He is not going to be hitting the campaign trail or anything, but I’m sure Quinn will get an endorsement/statement of support.


  58. - olddog - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 1:44 pm:

    === If Obama stays out, is it a tacit endorsement or Rahm/Rauner? ===

    … or is it Obama being Obama? He’s never shown much involvement in state politics.


  59. - Labordude - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 1:45 pm:

    Pot calling kettle-

    You are correct. Why should the unions use up their reserve of good “issues” in the primary if it is clear Rauner is going to win? Much has been gained testing messages and gauging organizational responses. Spending three million dollars on this kind of effort makes a lot of sense especially considering we are likely looking at a $80 million to $100 million general election. Lets keep some perspective here. Bruce Rauner will have spent $17 to $19 million to garner 40% of an estimated 800,000 Republican Primary voters. He is going to need a lot more than 300,000 or 400,000 votes to win the general election. The blame for what is happening in the Republican Primary for governor does not rest on the unions but on the weak Republican field which never provided Bruce Rauner with a legitimate challenge.


  60. - Downstate - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 1:48 pm:

    Wonder if Steve Schearer will add this to the LOSS column of his famous mailing blitzes?


  61. - Pot calling kettle - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 1:56 pm:

    ==That’s pretty much what I was going to write tomorrow.==

    I feel like I must be gaining something from spending so much time on this blog…now I’m channeling.

    ==Now I gotta think of something else or just steal it. ==

    I don’t think it would be stealing, more like re-appropriation from the blog’s collective consciousness.


  62. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 1:57 pm:

    ==He’s never shown much involvement in state politics.==

    You mean besides those multiple trips he, his wife, and Joe Biden all made to the State in Oct 2010?


  63. - Westward - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 2:04 pm:

    We all need to take a breath. If we can hold out for 4 more years, Aaron Schock will come along and save Illinois!


  64. - Arizona Bob - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 2:04 pm:

    Every delusional Quinn fan seems to think that Rahm and Madigan will go to the mats for Quinn in November. Don’t bet on it. Both would like to de-fang Karen Lewis and CTU, and Madigan, Rahm and Rauner working together towards that goal could be pretty effective.

    Rauner can start a pro growth policy in Illinois, especially bringing in high income professional services to Chicago. Quinn won’t. He’s a tax ‘em till you drop kind of Dem, and has no idea how to bring business here without simply bribing big companies not to leave. He just doesn’t get it.

    Right to work and workman’s Comp reform are key components to rebuilding manufacturing here. A Rauner-Rahm-Madigan troika could make that happen with fairly rapid postive results. Rauner is smart and savvy enough to get a few companies to annnounce a move here quickly if these reforms are enacted.

    The big union money is going to protect Harry Reid and the Dem Seante in November, and that’s going to take a LOT of resources that could normally be spent here. Durbin and most Dem House seats are pretty safe, so it’s poor efficiency to bring in a lot of union ground troops like those who turned the election for Quinn in 2010.

    Once Rauner is Guv, he’ll be strong enough to take over the weak kneed and corrupt GOP leadership here,and that works for Rahm and Madigan.

    With Quinn not being able to buy votes with government grants this time around and Rahm and Madigan not calling in favors for Quinn campaign help, Quinn’s in trouble. They don’t need to work against Quinn. They just need to be recalcitrant in giving him money and ground support.

    If Quinn seems the least bit vulnerable in November, look for that to happen. Rauner by 5 points in November!


  65. - Walker - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 2:33 pm:

    The only way this made sense to me, from the get go, was as an opening salvo attacking Rauner’s image while he was still relatively unknown — as a preliminary to going after him in the General.

    They must have known this was a long shot in the Primary.

    But, I’m often wrong on understanding others’ political strategy.


  66. - DuPage - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 2:33 pm:

    As long as Rutherford and Brady stay in the race, it guarantees Rauner will win. End of story.


  67. - steve schnorf - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 2:39 pm:

    I think maybe some of the original union thinking was along the Walker-Howlett lines, but Rauner didn’t seem to be getting bloodied very much, what tops 3 or 4 point% drop in a 4 way primary?


  68. - Pensioner - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 3:04 pm:

    ===Every delusional Quinn fan seems to think that Rahm and Madigan will go to the mats for Quinn in November.===

    There are Quinn fans?


  69. - the unknown poster - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 3:13 pm:

    The union attack ads on Rauner seemed to have boomeranged a bit and actually may have helped him make his point. Seems like an expensive whiff to me.


  70. - A guy... - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 3:14 pm:

    === Demoralized - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 12:02 pm:

    ==effort that was neither honest or substantive==

    What wasn’t honest about it? That Rauner is an enemy of the unions? Seems pretty honest to me.===
    The ad series wasn’t honest Demoralized. He’s killing old ladies in nursing homes was a dangerous foolish tack. Obviously wasn’t tested or polled. Out of all their ghoulish examples of people rolling down stairs in wheel chairs and being AWOL for hours on end….not one real person was used to tell their personal story and draw a direct line to how Rauner caused this terrible thing to happen. Not one. Why? Because no one would. Or you’d have seen it. What we got instead was a narrative in a sinister voice. No serious and sane person believed it. Amateurs swimming in the deep end- couldn’t swim, couldn’t find the edge of the pool. Pulled the ads because they didn’t help and began to hurt.


  71. - too obvious - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 3:19 pm:

    Fine. No one wants to miss out on months of taking down Rauner.


  72. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 3:22 pm:

    –Pulled the ads because they didn’t help and began to hurt.–

    Trib poll four days ago had Rauner down 4 points, Dillard up 11 points from the previous month.


  73. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 3:22 pm:

    Looks like they are switching to fully backing Dillard instead of the independent committee.

    http://www.elections.state.il.us/CampaignDisclosure/A1List.aspx?ID=525972&FiledDocID=525972&ContributionType=All%20Types&Archived=False


  74. - Endangered Moderate Species - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 3:28 pm:

    It always seemed the Illinois Freedom strategy was to soften Rauner and provide some hope for the challengers to ratchet up in the last couple weeks of the primary.

    They had to know the the GOP challengers weren’t going to overcome the Rauner money / message.

    The $3.1M seems to be early round body shots to see how the opponent responds. I am guessing, they aren’t happy with what they discovered about Rauner. He will be a tough beat in November.


  75. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 3:30 pm:

    - A Guy … - is comic relief.

    Do you read what you type before you hit “say it”?

    ===…they didn’t help and began to hurt.===

    You can read a poll, right?

    The numbers weren’t moving quick enough for maximum impact and victory through them and only them.


  76. - A guy... - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 3:31 pm:

    ===- wordslinger - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 3:22 pm:

    –Pulled the ads because they didn’t help and began to hurt.–Trib poll four days ago had Rauner down 4 points, Dillard up 11 points from the previous month.====

    All because of the great ads Slinger I’m sure. Had nothing to do with the IEA,IFT endorsements or Rutherford’s continuing saga and plunge. Races never tighten closer to an election either. Never? How does the latest poll look compared to 5 minutes after big labor came in with the heavy suitcase of cash for Dillard? You know the polls that convinced them to abandon their fruitless multimillion dollar effort. Sheesh man. The ads didn’t work and they began to hurt. They’re pulling them as gracefully as a media contract allows. C’mon man.


  77. - A guy... - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 3:31 pm:

    Willie, See above.


  78. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 3:32 pm:

    Who did the ads “begin to hurt” and how you know this?


  79. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 3:36 pm:

    Rauner was getting hit with negatives, where is this “hurting”?

    Polls going up 11 points seem to refute your nice dream…


  80. - Langhorne - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 3:53 pm:

    Crap.


  81. - Buzzie - Tuesday, Mar 11, 14 @ 5:27 pm:

    My question is, what will be the Paul Vallis influence (if any) in the Governor’s race?


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


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