SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
No surge detected yet

Wednesday, Mar 12, 2014

* As subscribers know, We Ask America has been tracking early and absentee voting in the Republican primary this season.

The following chart breaks down who has already voted early or sent in an absentee GOP ballot and compares that to all voting in the 2010 Republican primary.

A Democrat is classified as somebody who has taken a “D” primary ballot at least once since 2008. Independents are those who have not voted in a partisan primary since 2008. The State Board of Elections’ voter file is matched up with the names of people who’ve already voted…

* So, as you can see, the percentage of historic Democrats participating in the GOP primary so far appears at first blush to be a bit higher than it was in the 2010 primary.

But, that’s not really what’s going on here.

* The percentage total of independents voting early in the Republican primary is down six points so far from the final 2010 total. Republican participation on the GOP primary is up about three points and Democratic participation in the Republican primary is also up about three from the final 2010 number.

In reality, while the final vote will skew slightly more Democratic (but balanced out by a slightly higher GOP base turnout), there is no surge detected here, just a six-point drop in interest by independents.

And as my pollster Chris Wieneke says, this could all correct itself by election day, when independents might come out in higher numbers.

Also, Democratic participation in the Republican primary could change on election day itself, when unions will be pushing their members to get out and vote. We’ll see, but a major crossover has never been attempted here.

Many of us know Democrats or independents taking Republican ballots for the first time, but, so far at least, it’s not showing up in the results.

* Perhaps more interesting, however, is that more Republican ballots have been cast so far, 49,010, than Democratic ballots, 45,905. Usually, Democratic primary turnout dwarfs Republican turnout. Four years ago, 915,726 votes were cast in the Democratic gubernatorial primary while 767,485 were cast in the GOP primary.

That’s likely a function of the cash spent on the GOP side and the lack of any cash spent on the D side. The most impact will be down-ballot. Who’s turning out in competitive House primaries, for instance?

* Related…

* Shearer: ‘We are not pulling back’ on pro-Dillard ads: While public sector unions that had been funding Shearer’s group are now pulling back, trade unions and other money is here for now. Last week’s money will go toward buying ads through mid-week and the Teamsters will give another day or two and then make a decision on a day by day basis how much money will go his way, he said.

* Public Union Urges Crossover Vote for Dillard

* AFL-CIO mailing goes after “Billionaire insider Bruce Rauner”

* Election messages were more mixed than assorted nuts in a can of Planters.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


30 Comments
  1. - Downstate - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 1:13 pm:

    Rich,
    As you point out “a major crossover has never been attempted here”.

    It’s a huge unknown. It’s the single biggest concern to Rauner supporters. Tough for unions, in that they’ve endorsed Democratic primary candidates, but now are asking their members to vote in the Republican primary.


  2. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 1:29 pm:

    Gee, all those people asking about crossover votes on other posts are sure noticeably absent on this one.


  3. - OneMan - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 1:30 pm:

    Would be curious to see the party switcher numbers when this is all said and done…


  4. - Downstate - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 1:35 pm:

    If unions don’t deliver crossover voters - does that hurt their brand?

    IMHO At the end of the day, they can still deliver the money - and that’s just as important to the candidates.


  5. - Jaded - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 1:43 pm:

    ==A Democrat is classified as somebody who has taken a “D” primary ballot at least once since 2008==

    If they went back to 2006 Rauner would be classified as a D crossover vote.


  6. - anonymoose - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 1:52 pm:

    Cross over? Wouldn’t that have to be a really well thought out plan of attack?

    Let’s say, hypothetically, about 300 of your friends and neighbors show up on a primary election day in one combined precinct voting location. About 20 voters on average are confused on the concept of a closed primary (you mean I have to announce which party I have to vote for and then only get to vote for that party’s candidates? What is this - Russia?). I’m a G.D. Independent, I want an Independent ballot (Oh, there isn’t an Independent ballot or no one to vote for).

    So some voter education would be a nice thing. And those who do know how to find the polling place are pretty firm about not wanting to pull the other party’s ballot (and it appearing on their permanent voting record). As usually, the primary voters are the motivated party faithful.


  7. - A guy... - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 1:53 pm:

    Asking Democrats to pull Republican ballots is a monster ask akin to asking a Baptist to take Communion in a Catholic Church. A hard D just doesn’t want a blemish on their permanent voting record. They take way too much pride in their party for many of them to even consider it, especially older ones.


  8. - train111 - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 1:55 pm:

    I don’t see where the total number of people voting in a partiicular party’s primary has bearing on the general election result.

    In 2010 915,726 Dem ballots were cast and 767,485 GOP ballots were cast and Quinn pulled out a squeaker.

    In 2012 730,219 voted Dem and 948,178 voted GOP and Obama won handily.

    I think it is more a function of the almost absolute lack of Dem primaries until you get down to the lower levels. The GOP has primaries for Senate and Governor which have generated the most media attention.

    train111


  9. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 1:56 pm:

    ===I don’t see where the total number of people voting in a partiicular party’s primary has bearing on the general election result.===

    I never said it did.


  10. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 1:59 pm:

    I’ll bite Rich.

    There was much better hope for a come-from-behind from Rutherford than Dillard. Rutherford’s view that pension bill was unconstitutional was much easier sell to union members. Dillard’s position was not that different from Dan on social hot buttons, but his tone was certainly more strident.

    As Brady continues to attack Dillard, I wonder more and more whether Brady is on the Rauner payroll.


  11. - lake county democrat - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 2:21 pm:

    While most Dem crossover votes are likely union anti-Rauner votes, I bet a sizable number are Rauner voters. Rahm’s team wants him to win, there’s nothing interesting in the Dem primary, and believe it or not there are a good number of Democrats who intensely dislike Karen Lewis.


  12. - ??? - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 2:23 pm:

    I’ve pulled a Democrat ballot since 2008, but I’ve also pulled a Republican ballot since 2008, too. How would I be classified?


  13. - OneMan - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 2:36 pm:

    ???

    Confused….

    Used to have a grouping for that.


  14. - Mason born - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 2:44 pm:

    ???

    Right there with you. I am frankly dismayed that anyone cares what letter shows up on their “voting record.” Correct me if i’m wrong but only the employees at the board of elections can see the stupid thing anyway.


  15. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 2:49 pm:

    –Correct me if i’m wrong but only the employees at the board of elections can see the stupid thing anyway.–

    Anyone can find out what ballot you pulled.


  16. - ??? - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 2:52 pm:

    OneMan - nope, not confused. It’s just that when there’s a tight race on one side where I actually like one of the candidates, I want to vote in that primary to to get them through to the general.

    Mason Born, campaign staffs on both sides can access lists of voters who have pulled D or R ballots previously and they use those lists to identify their likely supporters in general elections.


  17. - Mason born - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 2:58 pm:

    Wordslinger

    Well thanks for that info. Seems incredibly stupid to do it that way. I guess i mistakenly assumed it was between you and the poll worker who handed it to you.

    ???

    Thanks that explains why i get so much Friggin e-mail from both sides.


  18. - Mason born - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 2:59 pm:

    sorry meant snail mail not e-mail.


  19. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 3:07 pm:

    Mason, historically, the powers-that-be in both the Illinois Democratic and Republican parties want to know who pulls what ballot — especially when it comes to their payrollers.


  20. - One of three puppets - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 3:20 pm:

    I hear you about the lower percentage of independents but shouldn’t the focus still be on the influx of 3.4% of Democrats coming into this primary? Why are they doing it? To support Rauner? Doubt that. Independents not participating seems moot because you don’t know what their behavior could have been. Democrats coming in surely is to support Dillard. Using 750,000 votes cast and 12.8% coming from Democrats means 96,000. Applying the 2010 percentage to 750,000 means roughly 70,500 participated. Possible influx of 25,500 voters likely being encouraged to vote Dillard. I said possible folks so take a deep breath.


  21. - Mason born - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 3:20 pm:

    Wordslinger

    Believe me i see why the polls want the info available believe me. I’m sure it cost a lot less to send mailers only to those people who are receptive to your message than all voters not to mention fund raising letters etc. That being said this seems like it could be information used to intimidate and coerce voters.


  22. - ??? - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 3:25 pm:

    ==wordslinger - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 3:07 pm:

    Mason, historically, the powers-that-be in both the Illinois Democratic and Republican parties want to know who pulls what ballot — especially when it comes to their payrollers.==

    Exactly. When I worked for Republican officials, NO WAY would I pull a Democrat ballot during that time. But now that I no longer work in the political arena, I pull whichever ballot I want to, depending on who’s running and how tight the race is.


  23. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 3:27 pm:

    –That being said this seems like it could be information used to intimidate and coerce voters.–

    Absolutely. That’s part of the intent, something Democratic and Republican power-brokers have always agreed upon.

    If you’re a payroller and you pull a primary ballot other than what your clout instructed, you’ve got trouble.

    It’s not been unheard of in some precincts throughout the state that you may have trouble getting services if you pulled the “wrong” ballot.


  24. - ??? - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 3:28 pm:

    Mason born, I hear you on the mailers from both sides. Although in 2010, I got NOTHING from Brady, despite having pulled many more R ballots in my lifetime than D ballots. I guess since I had a Chicago address, they just didn’t bother reaching out.


  25. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 3:31 pm:

    This “surge” will put front and center the impact, the political muscles the FOP, Teachers, and ASCME.

    Could be good, not looking impressive right now.

    Nothing, in Dem or GOP ballots today indicate any muscle.

    The they are all counting on Election Day…

    Beyond a huge ask, but an ask all the same.


  26. - Phineas J. Whoopee - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 3:31 pm:

    It seems like the unions are just starting to ask for the crossover. Do you think their members are not going to listen?

    It seems those with pensions have a vested interest in voting against Rauner. (Pun intended)


  27. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 3:35 pm:

    – Although in 2010, I got NOTHING from Brady, despite having pulled many more R ballots in my lifetime than D ballots. –

    I’ve been in the same house in Oak Park for 25 years and have been about half-and-half on Dem/GOP primary ballots.

    Always get a lot of lit from Illinois Dems. The only Illinois candidate to send me lit in all those years was Jason Plummer.

    The Cook County GOP has to be MJMs greatest scheme. Nothing else explains the neglect.


  28. - Oh Come On! - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 4:40 pm:

    Three mail pieces today: Rauner’s “Goodfellas” piece and two negative pieces against Rauner. One was from the AFL-CIO and the second was from the Peoria based “Fund for Jobs & Progress.” The Peoria piece lauded Dillard as being endorsed by “The N.R.A.”


  29. - ironman - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 4:56 pm:

    Yellow dog if you are not correct, then Brady has an ego bigas my house.


  30. - Wally - Thursday, Mar 13, 14 @ 7:06 am:

    The Dillard ads are non-stop in Central IL.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* $3 million in one pop from Rauner
* Reader comments closed for the weekend
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - State House fundraising report
* *** UPDATED x1 *** Has the haymaker punch arrived?
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - State Senate fundraising report
* Third straight poll shows Rauner leading Quinn
* Last call for tickets!
* Vast Majority of Illinois Voters Support Renewable Energy, Energy Efficiency
* Sun-Times reporters want you to sign their petition
* Same song, different century
* Question of the day
* Quinn finally wins a newspaper endorsement!
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's cable TV buy report
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition: Crosstabs, TV ads
* Report: Another tie between Rauner and CS-T chairman
* Bost's "anger," Cook's ratings, Foster's ad
* $580 MILLION EXELON RATE HIKE?? That’s the price tag for their nuke bailout…EVERY YEAR!
* *** UPDATED x1 *** Rauner pumping dollars
* Rauner pushing IDOT back into the news stream
* Gov. Quinn runs new TV ad featuring FLOTUS
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* No, your eyes didn't deceive you
* Good morning!
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * CVS disables NFC terminals, stops accepting Apple Pay, Google Wallet
        * CurrentC Is The Big Retailers’ Clunky Attempt To Kill Apple Pay And Credit Card Fees
        * Google Nexus 9, Nexus 6, iPad Air 2 comments & more – Pocketnow Daily Recap
        * Android Lollipop imminent, new Nexuses nearing, no more Nokia | Pocketnow Weekly 119
        * U.K. Startup Swytch Is Building An App To Open Up The ‘Burner’ Phone Number Market
        * Lockdown Pro allows selectively locking almost any app
        * Pronto Fast Charge battery gives a full charge in 5 minutes

        * Bing is Going to Help You Figure This Election Stuff Out This Year
        * Whisper Suspends Some Editorial Staff Following Guardian Report
        * T-Mobile’s Legere Launches Twitter Storm to Talk Apple SIM (And Poke Rivals)
        * This Week's Top Downloads
        * The Most Germ-Infested Item in the Office Might Be the Coffee Pot
        * CVS, Rite Aid Shut Down Support for Apple Pay
        * Know How to Spot the Signs of a Hidden Handgun

        * World Series Game 4: Notes and discussion
        * A 15-GIF salute to Moises Sierra's White Sox career
        * Konerko caps stellar career with Clemente Award
        * Konerko caps stellar career with Clemente Award
        * World Series Game 3: Notes and discussion
        * Rollins, Konerko named co-winners of Clemente Award
        * Alexei Ramirez and Adam Eaton Gold Glove finalists, but maybe not f...


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        October 2014
        September 2014
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * U.S. nurse quarantined over Ebola calls treatme.....
        * Costly Capitol renovations recognized for design..
        * Thief Steals $8,000 from New Beginnings Church..
        * Colorado task force tours Weld County drilling,.....
        * New York Ebola Patient Has Gastrointestinal Sym.....
        * U.S. nurse quarantined over Ebola calls treatme.....
        * U.S. nurse quarantined over Ebola criticizes he.....
        * Gov. Quinn welcomes home Illinois National Guar.....


        * Few details offered on quarantines over Ebola
        * Across US, Dems enlist Latinas for top of ballot
        * State Farm seeks to test drones in Illinois
        * Costly Capitol renovations recognized for design
        * Chicago Fire Department hired few blacks in 2014
        * Illinois lieutenant governor candidates on issues
        * Illinois lieutenant governor candidates bios
        * Lieutenant governor picks hope to help lead
        * Chicago Fire Department hired few blacks in 2014
        * Coroner's jury: July SWAT shooting justified

        * Statehouse Insider: Relax. It’s almost over
        * Bernard Schoenburg: Dillard, Sanguinetti push for GOP votes
        * Feminist Gloria Steinem endorses Quinn for governor
        * Madigan, Rauner spend big on Illinois House races
        * Officials rethink early vote-counting after Madigan ruling
        * Minimum wage increase supporters urge early voting
        * Sun-Times political reporter resigns following Rauner complaint
        * Minimum wage hike supporters urge early voting
        * Federal judge orders court-appointed monitor for IDOT hiring
        * Rep. Raymond Poe to undergo stem cell transplant

        * Why the Chicago-Illinois tech startup partnership won't be easy
        * Republican hopes fade for a comeback in U.S. House races
        * Jennifer Pritzker talks about a year of change
        * How much money do Exelon's nukes really make?
        * Shopping startup Trunk Club sizes up the women's market


        * Keep it peaceful in Ferguson, Mo.
        * Why wasn’t Ebola doc kept under scrutiny?
        * Enthusiastic student Stan Kij, 25, dies of stomach cancer
        * Judge rejects Pistorius comparison, gives 17-year sentence in murder-for-hire plot
        * Editorial: Bruce Rauner for governor
        * Back to the past with mayor’s move
        * Illinois needs better way to deal with terminally ill inmates
        * At panel on school closings, board acknowledges more planning needed
        * Marina City residents reminded to watch their step during Wallenda’s walk
        * Republican senators question Quinn’s IDOT scandal response


        * 7 hurt in shootings Saturday
        * 2 charged in the shooting of an off-duty Chicago police officer
        * 2 held after boy, 13, fatally shot in Gary
        * Man charged with failing to reveal he had HIV to partner
        * Man charged with possession of child porn
        * Man held on $1M bail in August slaying on South Side
        * $500K bail for man accused of taking semi, critically injuring cyclist
        * 1st phase of $719 million Tri-State, I-57 interchange opens
        * $1M bail for teen charged in fatal Englewood shooting
        * 2 dead, 8 hurt in shootings Friday into Saturday


        * Listen to State Week - October 24, 2014
        * 2014 Election Coverage: Citizens, here's your homework!
        * 2 dead, including gunman, in high school shooting
        * Prosecutors want more of indicted police commander’s 'bad acts' in court
        * Prosecutors want more of indicted police commander's 'bad acts' in court
        * Bedrock 66: Charlie Parr Plays Springfield Friday
        * Oberweis Would Back Federal Same Sex Marriage Law
        * Wild Bison Return To IL
        * Scary Story: The Diviner by Susan Vondrak
        * Artist Profile: Local Troubadour Tom Irwin


        * Donna Treadwell: Schools are killing the joy of reading
        * Funding for our furry friends
        * Our Opinion: Cautiously optimistic Bruce Rauner has clear economic vision for Illinois
        * Statehouse Insider: Relax. It’s almost over
        * Bernard Schoenburg: Dillard, Sanguinetti push for GOP votes
        * Dale Becker: Why giving back is good for business
        * Statehouse Insider: Relax. It’s almost over
        * Bernard Schoenburg: Dillard, Sanguinetti push for GOP votes
        * Michael Bromberg: Benedictine looking ahead at changes in higher ed
        * Charles Krauthammer: Barack Obama, aggrieved bystander


        * Volleyball wins physical battle with No. 13 Purdue
        * Richey's football bracket breakdown
        * Saturday's prep highlights: Danville claims regional soccer title
        * Sunday Conversation: Dick Corn
        * O/A-P's Davis leads race, cheers
        * Football notebook: Roommates Bentley, Neal star in win
        * Best of Fred: No. 41 — Tommy Stewart
        * Kroner: 'We will be strong for Hayden'
        * About time: Illini earn first Big Ten home win since '11
        * Civil War statue returning to downtown Rockford


        * Winning trend continues for Hersey at Lake Park
        * Batavia gets its revenge, regional title
        * Tough playoff tests loom for MSL teams, St. Viator
        * Blues snap losing streak, Blackhawks now have one
        * Wolves drop a close one 4-3

        * Patrick Cannon defense strategy rare but n...
        * Feds fine Jesse Jackson Jr.'s campaign com...
        * Ex-Congressman Jesse Jackson Jr. faces sen...
        * Representative Jan Schakowsky Sends Letter...
        * Rep. candidate pushes to uphold marriage b...
        * Reps. Schakowsky and Waxman Introduce Bill...
        * Statement by Representative Jan Schakowsky...
        * U.S. House Passes Resolution Condemning An...
        * FAA Rejects Call For New O'Hare Noise Stud...
        * Representatives Quigley, Duckworth, Schako...

        * Ted Cruz Talks His Plan To 'Abolish The IRS'...
        * Our View: 17th Congress: Cheri Bustos...
        * Our View: 17th Congress: Cheri Bustos...
        * Our View: 17th Congress: Cheri Bustos...
        * Our View: 17th Congress: Cheri Bustos...

        * Sen. Mark Kirk helps introduce anti-cyberb......

        * Great School Tips You Require To Know About
        * The Weekend In Chicago Rock
        * Anatomy Of A Tribune Editorial
        * More Illinois voters report machine switching votes from Dem to GOP
        * More Illinois voters report machine switching votes from GOP to Dem
        * Clowns With Sex Toys Attacked Illinois Family
        * Oberweis: DOJ needs to investigate threats against Pastor Corey Brooks and his family
        * More reports on potential voting fraud in Rock Island County, Illinois
        * More reports of potential voting fraud in Rock Island County, Illinois
        * Have You Seen This Young Woman?


        * Governor Quinn Announces Major Expansion of Public Recreational Access at Lake Calumet - Project Will Be Centerpiece of Governor’s Millennium Reserve Initiative
        * Governor Quinn Welcomes Illinois National Guard Brigade Home from Kuwait - Illinois’ 108th Sustainment Brigade Returns from Deployment
        * Rauner rips Quinn on IDOT patronage oversight
        * Governor Quinn Announces Winners of 2014 Illinois Export Awards - State’s Trade Programs Help Companies Increase Global Sales
        * Governor Quinn Directs Illinois Department of Public Health to Require Quarantine to Protect Against Ebola




            Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller