SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
No surge detected yet

Wednesday, Mar 12, 2014

* As subscribers know, We Ask America has been tracking early and absentee voting in the Republican primary this season.

The following chart breaks down who has already voted early or sent in an absentee GOP ballot and compares that to all voting in the 2010 Republican primary.

A Democrat is classified as somebody who has taken a “D” primary ballot at least once since 2008. Independents are those who have not voted in a partisan primary since 2008. The State Board of Elections’ voter file is matched up with the names of people who’ve already voted…

* So, as you can see, the percentage of historic Democrats participating in the GOP primary so far appears at first blush to be a bit higher than it was in the 2010 primary.

But, that’s not really what’s going on here.

* The percentage total of independents voting early in the Republican primary is down six points so far from the final 2010 total. Republican participation on the GOP primary is up about three points and Democratic participation in the Republican primary is also up about three from the final 2010 number.

In reality, while the final vote will skew slightly more Democratic (but balanced out by a slightly higher GOP base turnout), there is no surge detected here, just a six-point drop in interest by independents.

And as my pollster Chris Wieneke says, this could all correct itself by election day, when independents might come out in higher numbers.

Also, Democratic participation in the Republican primary could change on election day itself, when unions will be pushing their members to get out and vote. We’ll see, but a major crossover has never been attempted here.

Many of us know Democrats or independents taking Republican ballots for the first time, but, so far at least, it’s not showing up in the results.

* Perhaps more interesting, however, is that more Republican ballots have been cast so far, 49,010, than Democratic ballots, 45,905. Usually, Democratic primary turnout dwarfs Republican turnout. Four years ago, 915,726 votes were cast in the Democratic gubernatorial primary while 767,485 were cast in the GOP primary.

That’s likely a function of the cash spent on the GOP side and the lack of any cash spent on the D side. The most impact will be down-ballot. Who’s turning out in competitive House primaries, for instance?

* Related…

* Shearer: ‘We are not pulling back’ on pro-Dillard ads: While public sector unions that had been funding Shearer’s group are now pulling back, trade unions and other money is here for now. Last week’s money will go toward buying ads through mid-week and the Teamsters will give another day or two and then make a decision on a day by day basis how much money will go his way, he said.

* Public Union Urges Crossover Vote for Dillard

* AFL-CIO mailing goes after “Billionaire insider Bruce Rauner”

* Election messages were more mixed than assorted nuts in a can of Planters.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


30 Comments
  1. - Downstate - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 1:13 pm:

    Rich,
    As you point out “a major crossover has never been attempted here”.

    It’s a huge unknown. It’s the single biggest concern to Rauner supporters. Tough for unions, in that they’ve endorsed Democratic primary candidates, but now are asking their members to vote in the Republican primary.


  2. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 1:29 pm:

    Gee, all those people asking about crossover votes on other posts are sure noticeably absent on this one.


  3. - OneMan - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 1:30 pm:

    Would be curious to see the party switcher numbers when this is all said and done…


  4. - Downstate - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 1:35 pm:

    If unions don’t deliver crossover voters - does that hurt their brand?

    IMHO At the end of the day, they can still deliver the money - and that’s just as important to the candidates.


  5. - Jaded - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 1:43 pm:

    ==A Democrat is classified as somebody who has taken a “D” primary ballot at least once since 2008==

    If they went back to 2006 Rauner would be classified as a D crossover vote.


  6. - anonymoose - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 1:52 pm:

    Cross over? Wouldn’t that have to be a really well thought out plan of attack?

    Let’s say, hypothetically, about 300 of your friends and neighbors show up on a primary election day in one combined precinct voting location. About 20 voters on average are confused on the concept of a closed primary (you mean I have to announce which party I have to vote for and then only get to vote for that party’s candidates? What is this - Russia?). I’m a G.D. Independent, I want an Independent ballot (Oh, there isn’t an Independent ballot or no one to vote for).

    So some voter education would be a nice thing. And those who do know how to find the polling place are pretty firm about not wanting to pull the other party’s ballot (and it appearing on their permanent voting record). As usually, the primary voters are the motivated party faithful.


  7. - A guy... - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 1:53 pm:

    Asking Democrats to pull Republican ballots is a monster ask akin to asking a Baptist to take Communion in a Catholic Church. A hard D just doesn’t want a blemish on their permanent voting record. They take way too much pride in their party for many of them to even consider it, especially older ones.


  8. - train111 - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 1:55 pm:

    I don’t see where the total number of people voting in a partiicular party’s primary has bearing on the general election result.

    In 2010 915,726 Dem ballots were cast and 767,485 GOP ballots were cast and Quinn pulled out a squeaker.

    In 2012 730,219 voted Dem and 948,178 voted GOP and Obama won handily.

    I think it is more a function of the almost absolute lack of Dem primaries until you get down to the lower levels. The GOP has primaries for Senate and Governor which have generated the most media attention.

    train111


  9. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 1:56 pm:

    ===I don’t see where the total number of people voting in a partiicular party’s primary has bearing on the general election result.===

    I never said it did.


  10. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 1:59 pm:

    I’ll bite Rich.

    There was much better hope for a come-from-behind from Rutherford than Dillard. Rutherford’s view that pension bill was unconstitutional was much easier sell to union members. Dillard’s position was not that different from Dan on social hot buttons, but his tone was certainly more strident.

    As Brady continues to attack Dillard, I wonder more and more whether Brady is on the Rauner payroll.


  11. - lake county democrat - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 2:21 pm:

    While most Dem crossover votes are likely union anti-Rauner votes, I bet a sizable number are Rauner voters. Rahm’s team wants him to win, there’s nothing interesting in the Dem primary, and believe it or not there are a good number of Democrats who intensely dislike Karen Lewis.


  12. - ??? - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 2:23 pm:

    I’ve pulled a Democrat ballot since 2008, but I’ve also pulled a Republican ballot since 2008, too. How would I be classified?


  13. - OneMan - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 2:36 pm:

    ???

    Confused….

    Used to have a grouping for that.


  14. - Mason born - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 2:44 pm:

    ???

    Right there with you. I am frankly dismayed that anyone cares what letter shows up on their “voting record.” Correct me if i’m wrong but only the employees at the board of elections can see the stupid thing anyway.


  15. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 2:49 pm:

    –Correct me if i’m wrong but only the employees at the board of elections can see the stupid thing anyway.–

    Anyone can find out what ballot you pulled.


  16. - ??? - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 2:52 pm:

    OneMan - nope, not confused. It’s just that when there’s a tight race on one side where I actually like one of the candidates, I want to vote in that primary to to get them through to the general.

    Mason Born, campaign staffs on both sides can access lists of voters who have pulled D or R ballots previously and they use those lists to identify their likely supporters in general elections.


  17. - Mason born - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 2:58 pm:

    Wordslinger

    Well thanks for that info. Seems incredibly stupid to do it that way. I guess i mistakenly assumed it was between you and the poll worker who handed it to you.

    ???

    Thanks that explains why i get so much Friggin e-mail from both sides.


  18. - Mason born - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 2:59 pm:

    sorry meant snail mail not e-mail.


  19. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 3:07 pm:

    Mason, historically, the powers-that-be in both the Illinois Democratic and Republican parties want to know who pulls what ballot — especially when it comes to their payrollers.


  20. - One of three puppets - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 3:20 pm:

    I hear you about the lower percentage of independents but shouldn’t the focus still be on the influx of 3.4% of Democrats coming into this primary? Why are they doing it? To support Rauner? Doubt that. Independents not participating seems moot because you don’t know what their behavior could have been. Democrats coming in surely is to support Dillard. Using 750,000 votes cast and 12.8% coming from Democrats means 96,000. Applying the 2010 percentage to 750,000 means roughly 70,500 participated. Possible influx of 25,500 voters likely being encouraged to vote Dillard. I said possible folks so take a deep breath.


  21. - Mason born - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 3:20 pm:

    Wordslinger

    Believe me i see why the polls want the info available believe me. I’m sure it cost a lot less to send mailers only to those people who are receptive to your message than all voters not to mention fund raising letters etc. That being said this seems like it could be information used to intimidate and coerce voters.


  22. - ??? - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 3:25 pm:

    ==wordslinger - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 3:07 pm:

    Mason, historically, the powers-that-be in both the Illinois Democratic and Republican parties want to know who pulls what ballot — especially when it comes to their payrollers.==

    Exactly. When I worked for Republican officials, NO WAY would I pull a Democrat ballot during that time. But now that I no longer work in the political arena, I pull whichever ballot I want to, depending on who’s running and how tight the race is.


  23. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 3:27 pm:

    –That being said this seems like it could be information used to intimidate and coerce voters.–

    Absolutely. That’s part of the intent, something Democratic and Republican power-brokers have always agreed upon.

    If you’re a payroller and you pull a primary ballot other than what your clout instructed, you’ve got trouble.

    It’s not been unheard of in some precincts throughout the state that you may have trouble getting services if you pulled the “wrong” ballot.


  24. - ??? - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 3:28 pm:

    Mason born, I hear you on the mailers from both sides. Although in 2010, I got NOTHING from Brady, despite having pulled many more R ballots in my lifetime than D ballots. I guess since I had a Chicago address, they just didn’t bother reaching out.


  25. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 3:31 pm:

    This “surge” will put front and center the impact, the political muscles the FOP, Teachers, and ASCME.

    Could be good, not looking impressive right now.

    Nothing, in Dem or GOP ballots today indicate any muscle.

    The they are all counting on Election Day…

    Beyond a huge ask, but an ask all the same.


  26. - Phineas J. Whoopee - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 3:31 pm:

    It seems like the unions are just starting to ask for the crossover. Do you think their members are not going to listen?

    It seems those with pensions have a vested interest in voting against Rauner. (Pun intended)


  27. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 3:35 pm:

    – Although in 2010, I got NOTHING from Brady, despite having pulled many more R ballots in my lifetime than D ballots. –

    I’ve been in the same house in Oak Park for 25 years and have been about half-and-half on Dem/GOP primary ballots.

    Always get a lot of lit from Illinois Dems. The only Illinois candidate to send me lit in all those years was Jason Plummer.

    The Cook County GOP has to be MJMs greatest scheme. Nothing else explains the neglect.


  28. - Oh Come On! - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 4:40 pm:

    Three mail pieces today: Rauner’s “Goodfellas” piece and two negative pieces against Rauner. One was from the AFL-CIO and the second was from the Peoria based “Fund for Jobs & Progress.” The Peoria piece lauded Dillard as being endorsed by “The N.R.A.”


  29. - ironman - Wednesday, Mar 12, 14 @ 4:56 pm:

    Yellow dog if you are not correct, then Brady has an ego bigas my house.


  30. - Wally - Thursday, Mar 13, 14 @ 7:06 am:

    The Dillard ads are non-stop in Central IL.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* *** UPDATED x1 *** *** LIVE *** Leaders meeting coverage
* Reader comments closed for the weekend
* Mendoza transition team responds to the Sun-Times' Madigan conspiracy theory
* *** UPDATED x1 - Durkin responds *** Back to the future: Madigan demands "memorandums of understanding"
* Question of the day
* Shimkus loses out on plum post
* *** UPDATED x1 *** Moody's says Rauner veto is just one of many problems facing CPS
* *** UPDATED x4 - Mendoza responds - Munger calls suit "cowardly" *** Lawsuit filed over legislator pay
* The "green energy" side of the Exelon bill
* Caption contest!
* How is this "breaking our agreement"?
* Positioning, practicalities and politics weigh heavily against a House override
* Report: A decade to reach solvency, if leaders cooperate on tough plan
* *** UPDATED x2 *** Rauner goes into the lion's den
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............
<


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

  
* Apple localizes currencies in Egypt, Nigeria, Tanzania, six other countries’ App Stores
* OnePlus updates coming and FitBit buying Pebble? | #PNWeekly 229
* Will cost kill the Smart Home? Or is it already destined to happen?
* How AMOLED technology works
* Google is opening up Santa’s Village until December 24th
* Apple VP of Special Projects Paul Deneve Removed From Leadership Webpage [Update: Still at Apple]
* Lenovo Phab 2 Pro Video Review: More than just Tango?

* Several teams showing interest in Sale
* White Sox plans could clear up at Meetings
* Lawrie, Garcia settle with White Sox for 2017
* Garcia, Lawrie settle with White Sox for 2017
* Peace & glove: Owners, players reach CBA deal
* White Sox plans could clear up at Meetings
* Garcia among White Sox non-tender options

...............


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress

Loading


* Editorial: For a brief moment, Illinois governm.....
* Illinois leaders differ on progress in meeting .....
* Gov. Bruce Rauner names members of Illinois Bic.....


* EXCHANGE: Augmented reality in app for visually impaired
* EXCHANGE: Man creates memorial for fellow servicemen
* Lawyer seeks to replace 105-year murder sentence
* Weather advisory issued for Sunday in northern Illinois
* Ukulele is a popular music-class addition
* Illinois leaders differ on progress in meeting with governor
* Illinois leaders differ on progress in meeting with governor
* Universities exploring 'sanctuary' status for immigrants
* Ex-assessor get 1 year in prison for extorting bribes
* Illinois officials review child's death at Chicago day care

* Lawmakers sue comptroller for not paying them
* Electronic road signs are dark near Effingham due to budget
* State lawmakers vote to spare 2 nuclear plants
* Legislature OKs Exelon subsidy plan, goes to Rauner
* Rauner: No more stopgap budgets without property tax freeze, term limits
* Illinois shutters nation's last prison roundhouse
* Clinton nuclear plant has history of cost, job uncertainty
* AFSCME files lawsuit over labor contract
* Rauner to Dems: No budget without term limits, property tax freeze
* AFSCME files suit over labor contract

* Like our roundup? Share it around.
* A right hook to men and women hurt on the job
* Nothing brings pols together like a bailout
* Drink up, Chicago. Jim Beam's in town now
* Think Springfield can borrow its way out of trouble? Think again


* 4 injured in rollover crash on Dan Ryan ramp
* Police: Man fatally stabbed in the chest on Northwest Side
* Police: Man killed in Skyway wrong-way crash
* 2 wounded in Hermosa shooting
* 78-year-old woman fatally struck by vehicle in Hobart
* Georgia Nicols horoscopes for Dec. 4, 2016
* Dear Abby: As his mother, wife feud, he must take a side
* Penn State hangs on to beat Wisconsin for Big Ten title
* Niko Mirotic headlined a collection of bad in loss to the Mavs
* Police warn of increase in robberies in South Shore


* Man killed in wrong-way Chicago Skyway crash
* Man stabbed to death in Jefferson Park
* Woman, 60, grazed by gunfire among 7 wounded in city shootings
* Playoff? Rose Bowl? Nittany Lions aren't stressed about bowl prospects
* Green Party switches strategy in Pennsylvania recount bid, seeks federal court help
* Penn State wins Big Ten title game; can it make College Football Playoff?
* Officials fear up to 40 dead in fire during concert at Oakland warehouse
* Nikola Mirotic's offense once again MIA in Bulls' 107-82 loss to Mavs
* Police use 'fake news' in sting aimed at California gang; media criticize tactics
* After an Alabama toddler accidentally shot and killed his older sister, a family’s wounds run deep


The widget AQL4JYGHIY powered by Feed Informer does not exist.


* Our View: Fall veto session leaves Illinois in worse state than before
* Bernard Schoenburg: Divine intervention on budget? Still waiting
* Statehouse Insider: No budget deal; see you in January
* Angie Muhs: New sports editor to start at the SJ-R
* Amy Voils: How do I really help the homeless?
* Jason Dockter: LLCC a leader in online education
* A home for the holidays: How do I really help the homeless?
* LLCC a leader in online education
* Guest Column: Where is the bailout for human services?
* Charles Krauthammer: After a mere 25 years, the triumph of the West is over


* Herald-Review.com through the years
* Pension debt: The elephant in the halls of higher learning
* Imogene Kipp Chamberlin
* Birth Announcements
* Louise Shanks
* Bart Lindsey
* Rosella Leaders
* Michael Veach
* Betty Dunlap
* Charles Nolan Fager


* Penn State makes playoff case with 38-31 win over Wisconsin
* Police: Teens stole clothes, sprayed Mace on store employees
* No. 8 Penn St. rallies to beat No. 6 Wisconsin 38-31
* Granlund, Horvat score in SO; Canucks beat Leafs 3-2
* Hoffman Estates Redhawks advance in Pop Warner championships

* House lawmakers overcome hurdle on key tra...
* Rodney Davis talks funding with Bloomingto...
* The agency that fought Illiana gets a new ...
* Rep. Dold takes educational cruise down Ch...
* Lawmakers decry high turnover rate of VA h...
* CBD Oil, and politics
* Simon considering state Senate bid
* Killer Congressman Tom MacArthur trying to...
* Shutdown? State may not notice
* Rep. Bob Dold

* Sen. Dick Durbin Unveils Protection Effort......

* SEIU leaders say planned Monday strike by ......

* A Nickel's Worth of Difference
* #TBT. Los Angeles. 1963. Fighting segregation.
* Peace through fear.
* On the day Trump formally handed the U.S. government over to Wall Street Executives (and not the first time this has happened by any means).
* Get it in writing? It is in writing. It’s called the pension protection clause of the Illinois Constitution.
* Chicago Cubs co-owner Todd Ricketts to be Trump's deputy commerce secretary
* What would you do for a plate of frog legs?
* The kingdom of heaven.
* Rep. Ives spells out opposition to Exelon bailout bill
* Illinois Review readers most "liked" stories for first week in December 2016


* Thanksgiving Holiday Travel Brings Lowest Fatality Rate In Six Years
* Governor Announces Appointments to Illinois Bicentennial Commission
* Stateville Correctional Center’s F House Officially Closed
* Governor Takes Bill Action
* IEMA Highlights Safety during the Holidays - Encourages holiday shoppers to give preparedness gifts this year




      Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller