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Poll shows Rauner holding on to large lead

Monday, Mar 17, 2014

* The latest from We Ask America as Bruce Rauner holding in the mid 40s. The poll of 1,126 likely GOP voters was taken last night. Numbers in parentheses are from a March 11th WAA poll…

Bill Brady 19% (19%)
Kirk Dillard 27% (26%)
Bruce Rauner 44% (46%)
Dan Rutherford 9% (9%)

Margin of error was ± 3 percent.

* The firm took those poll results and then calculated how many votes Sen. Dillard would need from unexpected crossovers to catch Rauner. If it’s a traditional 750,000 voter turnout, Dillard would need 126,600 outside votes to win. If the turnout is 800,000, Dillard would need 135,040 new crossovers to win

That many votes represents a whole lotta love the unions have to generate for their crossover effort. Nothing of this scope has ever been accomplished in Illinois. Still, there may be enough crossover to move numbers tomorrow. But a few won’t be enough.

Dillard needs a stampede.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


79 Comments
  1. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 8:23 am:

    ===If it’s a traditional 750,000 voter turnout, Dillard would 126,600 outside votes to win. If the turnout is 800,000, Dillard would need 135,040 new crossovers to win…===

    Less than 14 days out, FOP, Teachers, and ASCME…remember, united to focus on a Ground Game (See Sunday Trib headline), and these Unions must coordinate with Hodas and Company, and their commitment to a solid GOTV/Election Day apparatus…

    This would be unprecedented in scope, size, impact, and execution. Now, …”you have 14 days to do it”

    Huge, huge ask.

    Do all these groups, including Dillard’s Crew itself, have the “Pluses” to run this successfully, let alone the pure apparatus necessary to RUN those “Pluses”.

    “If we had another week…”

    Get use to that phrase. Bet on it.


  2. - Perry Noya - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 8:27 am:

    I am awaiting apologies from the political geniuses who spent 2013 on this blog saying Rauner could never ever ever win the primary because he would self-destruct like the other rich guys.

    Nah, they are too busy predicting Rauner can never ever ever win the general because he is such a phony.


  3. - Ghost - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 8:30 am:

    Your missing the big picture here OW, the real question, is the Trusk character based on Rauner…..


  4. - Ghost - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 8:36 am:

    Perry excellent point. But there is a piece missing from your puzzle. Rauner went through the primary almost unopposed.

    he will clearly be able to out message quinn. But Quinn does have some money, and Rauner has made such a strong tactical decision to gurantee the unions back Quinn (the lesser of two evils to the unions) the general will be a bit different.

    Rauner has to face real attack ad’s and opposition once the General comes around. And Rauners has more bad things in his closet then Brady. brady struggeled with supporting a bill to euthanise animals. Stories about negelect and deaths at your nusring homes and fraud in companies you own will carry a bit more weight.

    But rauner is clearly genuine with his carhart jacket and 18 dollar watch which do not seem to be in any photos of him from before the election….


  5. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 8:36 am:

    I guess the GOTV for Rauner will needs to “finish” to make a statement of apparatus.

    See: 2010 General Election, Quinn closes gap on Election Day.

    Gotta finish.


  6. - circularfiringsquad - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 8:42 am:

    125K isn’t all that much. Especially with the CrossOverExpress racing its engine. Never forget there are non unionDs across the state who have waited decades to vote against Billboards Cross …. now a free chance AND the added bonus is a chance to send ChopperJim forward AND give D-lard a big boost too.
    Just an opportunity that cannot be missed. Of course our union “strategists” will take all the credit
    We are looking for other votes for the CrossOver Express Sample Ballot. How about Erika against RapidRodney? Others? Sandeck? Pihos?
    BTW we will also declare “WeAskAmeriKa” as the nation’s leading pollster — just so they don’t pout when Mitt Rauner gets shellacked


  7. - Wensicia - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 8:44 am:

    Voting turnout will be light. In my county, the most significant race is for sheriff, outside of the gubernatorial contest. It’s still pretty cold here and I don’t see too many people making the effort to get out and vote, Democrats least of all.


  8. - circularfiringsquad - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 8:45 am:

    Another big development from two solid guys wanting to be with the CrossOverExpress on election day….GmanJim and the HiwayEngineer are in the bar ca….
    “Retired State Sen. Dale Risinger (R-Peoria) has announced he is switching his support and endorsement from Dan Rutherford to Kirk Dillard in the GOP gubernatorial primary.
    Risinger follows former State Rep. Jim Sacia (R-Freeport), who threw his support to Dillard over the weekend.”


  9. - ironman - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 8:47 am:

    I would need to see more detail of this poll to determine how accurate the poll is. Dillard crew has ground game and union does also. What I am hearing down south Dillard is strong. It is a shame that Rutherford and Brady has an EGO bigger than the state of Illinois.


  10. - Upon Further Review - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 8:48 am:

    There have been several reports of politicians who had been backing Rutherford belatedly peeling off and endorsing Dillard. If Rauner holds on and edges Dillard, we can get used to Rutherford being blamed as the 2014 spoiler for continuing his candidacy after the lawsuit.


  11. - Westward - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 8:48 am:

    Is anyone thinking about the opposite holding true? Just as the crossover for Dillard is real, so are crossovers for Rauner. Folks, you’ve seen Quinn’s numbers. He ain’t so popular.


  12. - Downstater - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 8:49 am:

    =I am awaiting apologies from the political geniuses who spent 2013 on this blog saying Rauner could never ever ever win the primary because he would self-destruct like the other rich guys.

    Nah, they are too busy predicting Rauner can never ever ever win the general because he is such a phony.=
    Put Oswego Willy at the top of that list.


  13. - too obvious - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 8:53 am:

    A real shame the other 3 ran such lousy campaigns. So many missed opportunities that required no money. At the debates for example.

    No one to blame but themselves when the statewide ambitions of all 3 officially end tomorrow.


  14. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 8:54 am:

    I really comfortable with my Comments.

    Unlike Raunerbots, I think for myself and base Comments on real-time political landscapes, not talking points fed to me as I jump off a cliff, or without backing my comments up, drive-by style.


  15. - Roadiepig - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 8:55 am:

    Sure is a lot of premature gloating going on…


  16. - Touree's Latte - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 8:57 am:

    I am pretty sure I thought Rauner would burn out by Thanksgiving. His TV ad carpet bombing is impressive.


  17. - Bourbonrich - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 9:01 am:

    I know I am a pulling a anybody but Rauner ballot. The best news for me is by this time next year I will be a resident of a different state. The solutions to our problems are complex and there have to be winners and losers to find those solutions. It would be nice to compare what candidates stand for but instead of running for something they are all running against somebody. Can’t wait to see the platforms for the GOP after the candidates are known.


  18. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 9:02 am:

    ===Sure is a lot of premature gloating going on…===

    Indeed, - Roadiepig -.

    The Rauner Apparatus consists of commercials… and…a yet to see operation of Field/GOTV. Wishing voters to vote, even when leading in polls does not a GOTV apparatus make.

    Gotta finish.

    - Ghost -, I guess time will tell(?)


  19. - Anonymous - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 9:04 am:

    ==125K isn’t all that much.==

    And the Grand Canyon isn’t that big in some spots.


  20. - IL Champ - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 9:09 am:

    The combined union membership of the endorsed unions is over 400,000 (this is IFT, IEA, FOP, RTA, AFSCME). While some of those members are already Republican, many are not. The unions and Dillard needs to get roughly 32 percent of those members to turn out. This does not count any of the trade unions who have also been pushing Dillard pretty hard. This race will be interesting and certainly not a blow out.

    Meanwhile, Rutherford followers are switching over to Dillard. This could further boost his numbers. BRADY, you need to get out for the sake of the party. Dillard did you a favor in 2010, please return it.


  21. - Upon Further Review - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 9:10 am:

    Rauner’s domination of the television air waves is impressive? It is nothing new. Blagojevich did the same thing in 2006.


  22. - one of the 35 - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 9:12 am:

    I still don’t know if he can pull it off, but Dillard seems to be peaking at the right time. Hope he can do it. Risinger’s endorsement will definitely help in the Peoria area.


  23. - Anonymous - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 9:13 am:

    The last desperate screams of politicos whose candidate is down big days before the election: “But but but ground game!!”

    Rauner has a stable of staffers who have experience doing something rare for a R in this state lately: winning. Despite the wishes of some on here, they know what they’re doing. It’s Rauner by Secretariat-like lengths.


  24. - Grandson of Man - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 9:16 am:

    “Nah, they are too busy predicting Rauner can never ever ever win the general because he is such a phony.”

    In a country in which large groups of voters and politicians are fighting against universal health insurance, raising the minimum wage and labor rights during a time of massive income inequality, I can see clearly how someone as phony as Rauner can win. In a time in which a large group of people want to scapegoat thousands of middle class public workers for a complex problem that largely includes Wall Street crashing the economy, yes I get it that Rauner can win.

    “I really comfortable with my Comments.”

    For whatever it’s worth, I think you make excellent observations and comments. You call out the phonies, and that’s why you are so well-regarded. You need never worry. If you rile up or raise derision from jerks, you, sir, are doing an excellent job.


  25. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 9:17 am:

    ===The last desperate screams of politicos whose candidate is down big days before the election: “But but but ground game!!”===

    lol. Ask Brady about that Ground Game in 2010. Ground Games matter. They always do. Mocking that aspect dies not make you a “Closer”, but it can make you “Loser” on Election Day.

    ===Rauner has a stable of staffers who have experience doing something rare for a R in this state lately: winning.===

    Experience in winning? Do you really want to go down the road of “wins/losses”?

    Dope.


  26. - Ghost - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 9:19 am:

    ironman, I know I kept waiting to see if Brady and Rutherford would man up and throw support to dillard. But even though they have done little to no campaigning, and dont have much of a chance, their ego’s won’t let them bow out and toss support to someone else.


  27. - hisgirlfriday - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 9:23 am:

    It just feels weird that this is a contested GOP primary for GOVERNOR but I sure don’t see many yard signs anywhere. I know the old adage is “yard signs don’t vote” but for as much money as Rauner has blown on this race I’d expect to have seen some for him at least.


  28. - Soccermom - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 9:23 am:

    Does anybody have any information about Rauner’s GOTV? Any doors knocked this weekend? Any organizations pledged to take folks to the polls? And same question about Dillard — if he’s planning on an Election Day surge, he’d better have the troops to make it happen.


  29. - Anonymous - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 9:25 am:

    ==. Ask Brady about that Ground Game in 2010==

    You’re comparing Brady and his team in 2010 to Rauner and his team in 2014? That’s all sorts of St Patricks Day Crazy. Apples and hand grenades difference.

    I’m not saying ground game isn’t important, I’m saying those assuming Rauner won’t have any and implying they don’t know what they are doing are the real dopes, Dope. But that’ll prove itself on Wednesday.


  30. - Secret Square - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 9:27 am:

    “I sure don’t see many yard signs anywhere”

    Maybe that depends on where you live. I don’t see too many Rauner signs in the Springfield area but there’s an obvious explanation for that — people who intend to vote for him may not want to tick off neighbors who work for the state. Or it may be that Rauner doesn’t think yard signage is all that effective and prefers to concentrate all his resources on advertising.


  31. - A modest proposal - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 9:28 am:

    Hopefully the crossovers also vote truax..


  32. - Upon Further Review - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 9:28 am:

    Dillard signs are posted near polling places in parts of Chicago.


  33. - Wensicia - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 9:31 am:

    “I sure don’t see many yard signs anywhere”

    I haven’t seen anything in my town. Not much in the way of mailers, either.


  34. - Wally - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 9:31 am:

    Calling the upset for Dillard!


  35. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 9:32 am:

    ===You’re comparing Brady and his team in 2010 to Rauner and his team in 2014? That’s all sorts of St Patricks Day Crazy. Apples and hand grenades difference.===

    Nope. It’s not.

    ===I’m not saying ground game isn’t important, I’m saying those assuming Rauner won’t have any and implying they don’t know what they are doing are the real dopes, Dope===

    There is neither hide nor hair of a Ground Game. No apparatus to finish - that is Dopey. It is.

    ===I’m not saying ground game isn’t important, …===

    ===The last desperate screams of politicos whose candidate is down big days before the election: “But but but ground game!!”===

    So, you are desperate if you claim the Ground Game could matter, but you are also saying that the Ground Game matters?

    Being a Lemming is hard, eh? lol

    - GOM -, thank you. We all try to hold feet to fires, I am one of many, I just happen to be a Raunerbot favorite. Much respect.


  36. - ZC - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 9:33 am:

    I wouldn’t be surprised if We Ask America is overstating Rauner’s margin.

    But when the margin is that big, I’d be even more surprised if Dillard can close the gap.


  37. - Soccermom - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 9:36 am:

    Dillard has been making a strong close. If he had put this kind of effort into the whole campaign, we’d be looking at a very different race.


  38. - Big Muddy - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 9:39 am:

    How ironic would it be if Dillard fell 193 votes short?


  39. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 9:39 am:

    - Soccermom -, Spot On.

    Wait for this come Wednesday(?)

    “If we only had another week…”

    Dillard had months and months, weeks and weeks.

    “If we had another week…”


  40. - Perry Noya - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 9:40 am:

    Unlike Raunerbots, I think for myself and base Comments on real-time political landscapes, not talking points fed to me as I jump off a cliff, or without backing my comments up, drive-by style.

    I poke a little fun at people for jumping to conclusions, and that makes me a Raunerbot? Rauner is so all-powerfully evil, he secretly controls my thoughts?


  41. - Bemused - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 9:41 am:

    I am not the first to say this but I have been bothered for a long time by who seems to not be involved in this race. Where are the Tea Party Purity Police and the right wing GOP base. They have gotten way better candidates tossed out in other areas. It would seem the big money in the party has ordained Carhart Bruce and everyone backed off. To have been able to choke off funds for the others so badly that they needed Union help is mind boggling.
    We will soon see if OW is correct but it looks like Rauner may have been able to get around the old rules. I do not know about other areas but in Sangamon County his Ads are now going after Quinn more than the other three. That’s pretty confident in Tuesdays outcome.


  42. - Soccermom - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 9:42 am:

    When I work on campaigns, I always put up a little sign next to my computer, with one of my favorite Hemingway quotes: “Time is the thing we have least of.”

    Money shouldn’t scare anybody. It’s real and it’s important, but the woods are full of rich guys who didn’t make it over the finish line. Kirk Dillard had name recognition and experience; what he lacks is fire in the belly.


  43. - John A Logan - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 9:45 am:

    Dillard is going to close strong. However he will come up just short. If Rutherford would have dropped out I think Dillard could have leap frogged Rauner. Alas, if a frog had wings it would not bump its rear when it hopped.


  44. - Anonymous - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 9:48 am:

    ==So, you are desperate if you claim the Ground Game could matter, but you are also saying that the Ground Game matters?==

    No, it’s desperate coined phrase always said by those clinging to a politico phrase hoping that will pull you through, while ignoring and refusing to believe all reasoned and logical analysis, including ground game, that says this race is over. But keep clinging to it if it keeps you warm on Election Day, Sparky


  45. - Upon Further Review - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 9:48 am:

    @Bemused: This is the Rahm Emanuel playbook. It was used in the Chicago mayoral election of 2011. Rake in massive sums of money and starve the fundraising ability of all of your perceived opponents. Big donors are scared to commit money to other candidates when the “frontrunner” has so much cash on hand.

    The only significant difference is that Rauner used so much of his personal wealth. Emanuel played the game with other people’s money.


  46. - CapnCrunch - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 9:51 am:

    The poll shows that while 46% of voters approve of Rauner, 55% do not. If Brady and Rutherford had recognized the futility of continuing their race, dropped out, and thrown their support to Dillard this contest might look very different. But they didn’t. They would rather pursue their own agenda rather than try to help fix the problems facing Illinois. Isn’t this attitude of entrenched politicians one of the criticisms Rauner makes in some of his campaign ads?


  47. - BigBob - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 9:55 am:

    Rutherford should throw his support to Dillard. It is too late and would be hard to swallow, but he should do it. It would make a big splash in paper tomorrow.


  48. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 9:57 am:

    ===We will soon see if OW is correct but it looks like Rauner may have been able to get around the old rules. I do not know about other areas but in Sangamon County his Ads are now going after Quinn more than the other three. That’s pretty confident in Tuesdays outcome.===

    Let’s be very clear;

    Use your “Search” key. I have always commented how huge of an ask this is for the Dillard Crew, given 13 or so days to accomplish this, and just the logistics, and the pure number.

    I commented, and will so again now; This would/will very well be Hodas’, his Crew’s, and every and all Union’s greatest political achievement, it’s THAT big.

    One in Five chance…

    “- Anonymous -”,

    ===But keep clinging to it if it keeps you warm on Election Day, Sparky===

    And THAT, sounds more of a Lemming, than someone who has read my comments for months and months blaming the “3″ for failing campaigns..

    “…and please take a half a second to come up with a nickname. It makes following posts easier for everyone.”


  49. - Wensicia - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 9:59 am:

    I don’t blame Rutherford for Dillard’s possible close loss. Dillard and Brady did little to drum up support and go after Rauner until a couple of weeks ago.


  50. - BigBob - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 10:06 am:

    I also don’t blame Rutherford for Dillard’s position. But, he has an option to play a positive role at a time when it is clear he cannot win. Staying in now is only for his ego and helps Rauner.


  51. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 10:06 am:

    - Bemused -,

    ===We will soon see if OW is correct but it looks like Rauner may have been able to get around the old rules.===

    Just to clarify; Wasn’t calling you out, just the thought I have an Upset Special in the making. Respect.


  52. - Chunga's Revenge - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 10:08 am:

    I think Dillard might get the union votes he needs to pull off the upset. I have been working a Reagan Democrat area in Chicago and precinct captain for the last 20 years. It is heavy with teachers police and fireman. I never thought I would see it but it will have more Republican ballots pulled than Democrat ones.
    It is not just the anti union issues, it is also the Mayor and. Rauners ties to him..


  53. - Roadiepig - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 10:10 am:

    Oswego Willy- bullies love the anonymity of built in boards and comment sections. And really- how hRd is it to come up with a “handle”? I’ve used the same name on comments sections for at least 15 years. That way if someone wants to call me stupid (like a couple did here on Friday) they can keep track of who they are attacking.

    As you say- much respect for you calling on them for who they are (or are not willing to even identify who they are ).

    Btw- I still expect the Baron to win tomorrow. If he does, I think many who vote for him tomorrow will end up with a severe case of buyer’s remorse by November. If the Baron somehow loses? These comment threads will become a lot more mundane rather quickly…


  54. - Bobo - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 10:11 am:

    Anyone with a pension would be smart to vote against Rauner in the primary. I disagree with OW that this is a huge ask. It just simply needs to be explained to the voters that Rauner wants to take away your pension. They will take care of the rest.

    Just the Chicago City workers including police and fire would be enough to turn the tide.

    What are the other unions telling their folks to do? What about trades, ISEU, all municipal employees including management?

    This is the time to take Rauner out.

    They may wake up Wednesday morning being the staunchest Pat Quinn supporters imaginable.
    Nobody should have to resort to that!


  55. - wordslinger - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 10:12 am:

    Rauner’s been over 40% for a while now. With two other candidates in the race, I can’t see Dillard closing the gap.


  56. - Rich Miller - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 10:12 am:

    ===The poll shows that while 46% of voters approve of Rauner, 55% do not. If Brady and Rutherford had recognized the futility===

    That assumes all of those not currently with Rauner would rule him out as their second choice. I wouldn’t be so sure of that.


  57. - Arizona Bob - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 10:16 am:

    =Rauner’s domination of the television air waves is impressive? It is nothing new. Blagojevich did the same thing in 2006.=

    and he WON…..


  58. - Rich Miller - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 10:18 am:

    AB is spot on.


  59. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 10:18 am:

    ===Anyone with a pension would be smart to vote against Rauner in the primary. I disagree with OW that this is a huge ask. It just simply needs to be explained to the voters that Rauner wants to take away your pension. They will take care of the rest.===

    Educating an electorate at the size, scope, and impact… and maximizing all those aspects and actually… dragging… those voters to the polls, controlled… in 13 days and dragging Dillard past Rauner?

    It IS that huge. Biggest “ask” I can remember, given the flipping of a switch, a 20 point deficit to make up, lack of funds, coordinating everyone, and the education of that Universe of voters. Huge.

    One in Five.


  60. - ground rules - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 10:23 am:

    of course the ground game matters, OW. But it matters a whole lot less when no one has one. As far as I can tell, the ground game is virtually nonexistent for all the candidates, so the reality is that someone is going to win this GOP primary with a crappy ground game.

    at this point, it’s fairly ridiculous to even talk about. in a perfect world, someone would have one. but we have a tremendously flawed group of candidates on our side. It’s remarkable to me how many people haven’t decided yet who they’re voting for, or having decided, might switch. there is no ground game in large part because these candidates just aren’t that popular. if you want people to knock on doors for you or make calls, you need to offer more than this collective group does.


  61. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 10:31 am:

    Math?

    Brady is between 18-20% - Brady’s wheelhouse numbers.

    Rutherford is between 7-11% - the 11% could be the ceiling.

    That is 30%, it seems, choosing neither Rauner or Dillard.

    Rauner is 40%…so 40+9+19 =32

    GOTV of Crossovers at a clip high enough to water down percentages while rising raw vote totals for Dillard is the “ask”.

    Making up, arguably 10-12 points, and that is being generous, is THAT big.

    Raw vote crossovers must be 6-digit Huge, and not 100K, as it has been pointed out above and other places.

    This is a “Punch 10″ type of “ask”… and doing it in 13 days.

    Wow.


  62. - Upon Further Review - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 10:32 am:

    Of course, television advertising worked for Blagojevich in 2006. I was responding to the comment that called Rauner’s carpet bombing of the television airwaves impressive. I was merely pointing out that it has happened before.


  63. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 10:32 am:

    ===But it matters a whole lot less when no one has one. As far as I can tell, the ground game is virtually nonexistent for all the candidates, so the reality is that someone is going to win this GOP primary with a crappy ground game.===

    Spot On, very well said.

    Agree.


  64. - ground rules - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 10:36 am:

    good point Rich about second choice.

    anyone who believes that every Brady or Rutherford vote would otherwise go to Dillard has a tin political ear. Many of those Brady votes are not big fans of AFSCME, for example. Are the moderate progay marriage Rutherford voters going to go with Dillard over Rauner?

    It’s not as simple as is often made out.


  65. - Walter Mitty - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 11:04 am:

    Just a bit of free advice, yes, worthless! To think there is not a silent vast amount of teachers that are supporting or NOT opposing by pulling a R ballot. I know I am NOT alone in believing without drastic change my retirement will be availiable in 20 years… Many people I know believe the rehtoric, save those in the system, and mess with ours sooner while we can still earn and prepare. Because unlike many politicians, I can do simple mathematics. There is not enough money to continue in this way.


  66. - Percival - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 11:07 am:

    It has been a pathetic campaign.


  67. - Ghost - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 11:08 am:

    I need Schnorf to translate OW 10:31 post….

    My final thought. The advantage of a heated primary is it can temper the canidate who comes out on top. You get to see the vulnerabilities and devise plans to work around them.

    The GOP primary this time around has been no crucible to forge a strong canidate. It makes tepid look like a strong term. Can Rauner survive if there is a counter campaign? In some ways he made a mistake cutting funding from his opponents. He would have been better served by a real fight and challange.

    If you only partipate in rigged fights, what happens when you get in the ring with a salty irish boxer.


  68. - Bemused - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 11:14 am:

    OW thanks for the clarification, was scratching my head a bit on that.
    Sometimes Rich curtails my comments for reasons I’m not 100% sure of but no harm no foul.
    My main point was this one seems to my eye a bit different than what is already in the record books. What has and hasn’t happen during the lead up to tomorrow is interesting to say the least.
    If the man had went into this saying he had a “Come to Jesus” moment and was going to change things because he knew how all the backroom deals were made, maybe I could understand where he is at. From where I sit he has no intension of admitting his part of the bad side of government. Is he the type of candidate who will be of help to the regular working stiff? My money is on no.
    Once again he is not the candidate from My Party so my opinion on this has little value to those who will cast their votes on that side I’m sure. I do agree with whoever said there will be some voter remorse as time goes bye.


  69. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 11:15 am:

    - Ghost -,

    Sorry, I know. You bring math into all this…

    ===Rauner is 40%…so 40+9+19 =32===

    40(Rauner)+9(Rutherford)+19(Brady)=32 percent left for Dillard(?)

    “If a train leaves…”


  70. - Wow - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 11:17 am:

    Will be close. Rutherford will be in the 4-5 range, Brady maybe 18. Dillard and Rauner will duke it out in the high 30s. Don’t be surprised if Dillard wins.


  71. - Ghost - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 11:25 am:

    thanks for the translation :)


  72. - Nearly Normal - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 12:03 pm:

    Not too many yard signs here as in the past. Some popped up this weekend. Problem is that the ground is so frozen so deep that it is difficult to get those signs in the ground.

    Bigger than the primary race for GOP Gov is a local referendum on increasing sales tax to add 1% for school districts in McLean County. There have been more letters to the editor on that issue than the gov primary.


  73. - Southwest Cook - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 12:14 pm:

    Rauner will clear 40% and win Cook and all of the collar counties, including DuPage. Dillard will top out at 30%, Brady around 25%, and Rutherford around 5%. The only question I have is how many Downstate counties will Rauner lose?


  74. - wordslinger - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 12:19 pm:

    – The only question I have is how many Downstate counties will Rauner lose?–

    What’s the relevance?


  75. - Southwest Cook - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 12:27 pm:

    -What’s the relevance?-

    None, just out of curiosity. My point is that Rauner will win convincingly tomorrow in most parts of the state.


  76. - Downstate - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 1:11 pm:

    Not that it matters, but I’m predicting that Quinn will lose a few counties tomorrow, in places that Tio Hardiman has never visited nor could he find on a map!


  77. - Wally - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 2:25 pm:

    I just don’t see Brady getting 25. IMO, high teens. And I think Rauner and Dillard are very close.


  78. - Esteban - Monday, Mar 17, 14 @ 7:12 pm:

    Quinn will lose more than “a few counties”.


  79. - Moderate - Tuesday, Mar 18, 14 @ 3:51 pm:

    In 2010, moderates liked Quinn over Brady, but would’ve voted for Dillard over Quinn. In 2014, moderates like Quinn over Rauner, but would vote for Dillard over Quinn. When will the Republican primary voters learn?


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