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Grassroots and gerrymandering

Monday, Apr 28, 2014

* My weekly syndicated newspaper column

Out of power for a dozen years and hobbled even before that by anti-patronage court rulings, the state’s Republican Party infrastructure has all but collapsed.

So, part of GOP gubernatorial nominee Bruce Rauner’s task he’s set for himself from here on out is to try and somehow rebuild a grassroots infrastructure.

It won’t be an easy job. Republicans have never, in the modern age, been able to match the Democrats’ ability to dispatch patronage armies to the state’s distant corners because of the Democrats’ Chicago and Cook County patronage basesThe Republicans’ local organizations are essentially hollow these days, and they have no troops to speak of.

Before the primary, Rauner’s campaign had ambitious hopes of opening as many as fifty field offices throughout Illinois. Those plans were scaled back as reality sank in. Finding enough experienced people to staff those offices would be next to impossible.

It’s unknown at this time, even, apparently, by the Rauner campaign, just how many offices they plan to open and where. The candidate has enough cash to do pretty much whatever he wants. The problem, as noted above, is finding people to do the job.

But if his campaign can get this project off the ground, it could be a game-changer. Gov. Pat Quinn barely won his last election against a Republican candidate who had almost no field operation. Every vote that Rauner can turn out at the precinct level is a vote that gets him closer to victory.

And that Rauner push could have a significant trickle down effect on state legislative races, particularly in the Illinois House, where there are more competitive contests.

Even so, Republicans shouldn’t expect any miracles this November.

A study published earlier this year by Washington University in St. Louis took a look at gerrymandering - deliberately partisan drawing of congressional districts - and found that examining the data in two different ways produced the same result.

Every one percentage point increase in vote share by the ruling party produced about a two percentage point increase in the number of seats the party won.

So, winning 55 percent of the vote will generally yield about 60 percent of the seats.

Now, compare that to the Illinois results. I asked the Yes For Independent Maps coalition last month to count up the number of votes that all Democratic legislative candidates received so I could compare that to the number of legislative seats the Democrats won. The coalition is attempting to place a constitutional amendment on the ballot this November which would try to take some of the partisan politics out of the state’s redistricting process. So, while they do have motives, the numbers are the numbers.

The results were astonishing, as first revealed in my Crain’s Chicago Business column. They far exceed that historic national trend.

According to the remap coalition’s count, Democrats received 53 percent of all the votes cast in all Illinois House races statewide. Using the WashU study, the House Democrats should historically hope to receive 56 percent of the seats, but they won 60 percent in 2012.

Of course, the Democrats completely control the map process here. Nationally, the Republicans don’t control every state’s remap process. So there would be an expected bump here.

But the numbers in the Senate were even more dramatic. Senate Democratic candidates won a total of 52 percent of the vote. That would translate historically into 54 percent of the seats, but the party won 68 percent of all Senate seats.

Having President Obama at the top of the ticket surely helped the Democrats last time around. For example, Obama spent a king’s ransom in Iowa, which drove Democratic turnout way up in Sen. Mike Jacobs’ (D-East Moline) district, just across the Mississippi River.

Obama’s success here even helped Democrats win a district that was drawn to benefit a Republican. The House Dems pulled their staff out of the Kankakee-area’s 79th District after Republican spending neared a million dollars, but the drastically outspent Democrat Kate Cloonen ended up pulling off a stunning upset, winning by 91 votes.

So, not all those 2012 wins can be attributed to the map. The Republicans were fighting straight uphill with Obama at the top shooting down.

However, Obama won’t be on the ballot this year. Voter unrest is obviously quite high yet again in the President’s second off-year election, so we’ll soon see just how solidly Democratic those district maps really are. My guess is they’ll hold up pretty well.

Discuss.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


86 Comments
  1. - Walker - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 9:21 am:

    Looks like Rauner has succeeded with petition passing on term limits around the state, with rookie and minimally-informed paid staff. He can do the same with field offices, with some training and good technical support. At least some field efforts will be pulled off.

    Much better than nothing.

    Oh the joys of unlimited funds!


  2. - Bill White - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 9:25 am:

    Rich, is this the Washington University paper you refer to:

    http://artsci.wustl.edu/~ng/Goedert_DistrictingBias2012Note.pdf


  3. - Grandson of Man - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 9:28 am:

    “Voter unrest is obviously quite high yet again in the President’s second off-year election”

    This has a shelf life, so I say to conservatives, enjoy it while you can. Folks who are motivated to vote in midterms are older, white conservatives. Conservative outrage should diminish over time, as there will be less and less of these folks.


  4. - the Patriot - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 9:28 am:

    Rauner simply needs to keep the IEA and AFSCME sidelined. Those two gave Quinn 1.25 million in the summer of 2010 and gave him the edge in November. Without them all in for Quinn he loses. He is not getting a lot of people who voted against him in 2010.

    The IEA numbers are simple. You elected Quinn because you did not want a Brady 10% cut. Quinn has cut you 15%. It is simple for teachers. Bite the bullet and vote for Rauner, or at least 10% of you are going to lose your jobs to budget cuts in the next 4 years.

    What is not so simple is breaking the veto proof majority. It would dramatically increase Rauner’s ability to accomplish anything. Winning the Gov seat without spending the money in legislative seats limits your ability to change anything. Spend some of that money and pick off a few dems.


  5. - Wally - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 9:33 am:

    Less and less of these folks???? The baby boomer population is huge and this generation is living much longer.


  6. - Norseman - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 9:36 am:

    === Rauner simply needs to keep the IEA and AFSCME sidelined. ===

    Not happening.


  7. - Bill White - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 9:38 am:

    Here is an interesting proposal from November 2013 that seeks to solve gerrymandering with multi candidate districts and cumulative voting.

    http://www.fairvote.org/assets/ModelFairRepresentationAct2014.pdf

    Maybe the call should be: “Repeal the Cut-Back Amendment!”


  8. - Walker - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 9:40 am:

    Patriot: I don’t get it. Are you arguing we should vote for Rauner because he will cut less spending than Quinn? What happened to the “high-spending Democrats” theme?

    You say vote for Rauner to avoid a 10% cut to teachers, without pointing out how much Rauner will cut to balance the budget, which will have to be more given his taxation position.


  9. - Grandson of Man - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 9:50 am:

    “Less and less of these folks????”

    Yes. The percentage of white voters is decreasing. It was 72% in the 2012 election. In the not too distant future, states that were solidly red, like Texas and Georgia, may be purple.

    Enjoy the Obamacare outrage while you can.


  10. - A guy... - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 9:50 am:

    Cynically, these maps were drawn with some sustainable genius. I think they’ll take 3 cycles to make significant inroads. But the electorate is anxious and unsettled. The apathy you sometimes see is less in an off year where people are more convinced they can cut into these majorities. A super majority relies on discipline from member one to member last- we’ve already seen some cracks in that. The GOP has a chance to get out of the Super minority in one chamber. It would be slimmer if the voters weren’t so unsettled. They are, so the chance is better. The X factor will be how a number of those GOP candidates perform in the spot light. Spend some time ripening them up. Nothing else matters if people don’t think they represent reform.


  11. - AFSCME Steward - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 9:57 am:

    Patriot

    “Rauner simply needs to keep the IEA and AFSCME sidelined”

    Not gonna happen. Rauner went way overboard attacking union members during the primary. At least from the AFSCME perspective, there will be an all out push to defeat him. Rauner is now trying to be a moderate, but his widely viewed commercials attacking unions force us to hold our noses & back Quinn.


  12. - countyline - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 10:00 am:

    -Conservative outrage should diminish over time, as there will be less and less of these folks.-

    Dream on. Younger folks trend liberal, and get more conservative as they age. Nothing scientific, and not universal, just the way that it is.


  13. - OneMan - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 10:01 am:

    Yep,

    because with out folks who rely on it for a job, the folks you generally have out there are not driven by personal financial interests (a strong motivator) but either by a single issue (generally in the GOP either social or guns IMHO) or a general anger. That is not true of everyone by any stretch, but it is for a decent percentage.

    So at the end of the day, how do you fix the lack of a field operation problem.

    It is either going to be money, technology or a combination of both. I think the problem is fixable, but it is going to be a challenge.

    As for the map stuff, yeah that is an added challenge, but I think any political party in power too long will begin to go to war with itself because of the lack of others to enjoy the spoils…


  14. - Bill White - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 10:02 am:

    Are there any state senate incumbents at risk this cycle? From either party?

    How many state house incumbents at risk? From either party? Which ones?

    My sense is that few incumbents are at risk in the IL House and none of the incumbents are seriously at risk in the IL Senate.

    ===

    And we can dispense with the faux outrage - the IL maps are less biased than can be found in a great many Republican dominated states.


  15. - AFSCME Steward - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 10:13 am:

    A Guy

    “Cynically, these maps were drawn with some sustainable genius. I think they’ll take 3 cycles to make significant inroads. But the electorate is anxious and unsettled. The apathy you sometimes see is less in an off year where people are more convinced they can cut into these majorities. A super majority relies on discipline from member one to member last- we’ve already seen some cracks in that. The GOP has a chance to get out of the Super minority in one chamber. It would be slimmer if the voters weren’t so unsettled. They are, so the chance is better. The X factor will be how a number of those GOP candidates perform in the spot light. Spend some time ripening them up. Nothing else matters if people don’t think they represent reform.”

    I think the real issue is the GOP’s failure to produce an alternative to the Democrats. Saying no isn’t a plan. Oppose, oppose, oppose is not a plan. Screaming cut, cut, cut is not a plan. Tax cuts for the wealthy is not a plan. The ILGOP has become lazy. The party is seen as having no solutions. This results in disintegration of organization & voter apathy. To gain votes, even in the gerrymandered districts, many of which are not as Democratic as the veto proof majorities might suggest, there needs to be a change in direction. Create an alternative budget. Show us how we can survive without the income tax increase. Show us how Illinois can grow economically, not just repeat the tax cut mantra over & over. Te GOP nominee for Governor so far has run with no plan and attacking Illinois union members, many of whom vote GOP. The GOP needs to reach out to union voters, not attack them. The ILGOP needs to find issues that can connect them with younger voters & minorities.

    What exactly does stand for reform mean ? Does it even carry any weight. Blago stood for reform. What did we get from that ? Candidates have been clauiming to be reformers for years. Very few of them ever ended up being reformers. Many ended up in Club Fed. The current GOP candidate for Governor says he’s gonna “shake up Springfield”. Yet he hasn’t issued a single position paper on any issue. He avoids taking stands on anything. Looking at his record, as the ultimate insider, how could anyone believe that Rauner is a reformer. He constantly raqils against state pensions, yet he personally made millions off them. He has used his wealth & conections to clout himself repeatedly into personal gain. I would love to vote for a GOP reformer. So far all I see from Rauner is more of the same.


  16. - Grandson of Man - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 10:26 am:

    It will be interesting to see how many AFSCME members come out to support Quinn. The choices in elections sometimes are not who we love, but who is the other candidate. In the case of Rauner, with his anti-union policies and rhetoric before the Primary, this could be what drives AFSCME turnout for Quinn.

    “Dream on. Younger folks trend liberal, and get more conservative as they age.”

    The younger folks of whom you speak will be less and less white, and most likely more liberal as they get older. By 2043, whites will no longer be the majority population.

    http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/06/13/18934111-census-white-majority-in-us-gone-by-2043?lite

    I don’t think you’re going to have Latinos and African-Americans share the government outrage in the future that the older, white conservatives are reveling in today.


  17. - steve schnorf - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 10:26 am:

    Patriot, what are you smoking? I’m a Republican, and in a normal year, Governor Quinn would be badly hurt by union lethargy at best. It would normally take a great deal to get them b___s to the wall again for Quinn. In his efforts to win a primary, Bruce Rauner gave Quinn a huge gift; everything needed to make Quinn the most attractive alternative imaginable. Right to work union bosses, an end to pensions, 401k plans instead. Did you see what they did during the primary? And now you predict they’ll just meekly walk away? Jesus, be at least a little bit credible here.


  18. - ZC - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 10:27 am:

    >> Dream on. Younger folks trend liberal, and get more conservative as they age. Nothing scientific, and not universal, just the way that it is.

    Younger folks only trend more conservative as they age if they acquire more income / financial security as they age. I’m not convinced that’s the trajectory this current debt-saddled, high-unemployed, hi-underemployed generation is on.

    They might be more economically liberal for a long time yet. Don’t forget the FDR generation was voting for Democrats into their 70s outside of the South.


  19. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 10:28 am:

    Couple Points;

    “Somethings” I have Commented before…

    ===…a Ground Game is like studying for an Exam; you have the answers, you know where to get the answers to pass the Exam, but will you get those answer for the Test to Pass. You have no answers, you or you have answers but can’t pull them out to pass the test, you fail.===

    ===When you absolutely have no way to control your own turnout of “Pluses”, and no mechanism to determine how your “Pluses” are turning out, you have no Ground Game. You are then guessing and hoping and quoting polls, as Rauner’s Crew did, nervously watching how it would end, 17 points to the light.===

    Rauner is going to build a Raunerite Cake. If the GOP is counting on the Rauner Crew to assist in building the ILGOP Ground Game, that is just plain Folly.

    Why?

    Both Bruce Rauners have said so. The Legislative PAC is designed to support Dems and Republicans who support Rauner, and a Raunerite agends. The Rauner Cake is not designed for GOP success but attempting a Rauner triumph.

    The Rauner Cake is the Brady Cake through the looking glass;

    Conservative Dems, moderate Indies, the conservative GOP needs to get in line, and overt “consolidating” of N’DIGO and Rev. former state Senator Meeks. Ads touting a wife who is a Democratic voter, courting women and Indies and Dems, ignoring GOP Conservatives, and possibly strong-arming Establishment GOP types to vote against their better selves.

    Brady’s Cake, fell flat with no Ground Game. Rauner “wants” a Ground Game, but Tom Hagen’s Crew can’t bully one into existence, and those knowing how to build one, even without patronage, are they going to help the GOP version of Charles Foster Kane?

    Looks like tough sledding so far…


  20. - wordslinger - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 10:29 am:

    The lack of GOP ground game is mind-boggling. I don’t think it can solely be ascribed to lack of government payrollers.

    I’ve been in my Oak Park house nearly 30 years, since the end of the Thompson administration. Then came 12 years of Edgar and Ryan in the governor’s office. Jack O’Malley was state’’s attorney for a while, Jim O’Grady was sheriff.

    Plenty of GOP payrollers then.

    Republican candidates for president carried Illinois in 1980, 1984 and 1988.

    In 1984, Reagan got 48% of the Cook County vote. In 1988, Bush got 44% of the Cook County vote. Both won Illinois, handily. In 1994, Edgar won a majority in Cook County on his way to a landslide.

    Yet in nearly 30 years, I’ve never had a knock on the door from someone supporting a GOP candidate. Not one. I’ve voted in GOP primaries many times. The only GOP candidate direct mail I’ve received in all that time was from Jason Plummer. I did get Kirk Dillard lit last primary from IEA.

    My ancient Dem precinct captain is out on the block every day, walking his dog and talking to the folks. He knows my kids names and what they’re up to. At election time, my mailbox is stuffed with Dem candidate lit. I get at least three door knocks from the Dem party.

    Meanwhile, the local GOP “organization” seems to be a bunch of thoroughly unhappy cranks who put all their effort into writing ignorant letters to the editor moaning about taxes, welfare, Mexicans and abortion.

    The fact of the matter is that in Illinois, the Dems just work harder than Republicans. They outwork them, run circles around them, time and again.

    I have no sympathy for people who aren’t willing to work and then whine about the results. That’s your Illinois GOP today.


  21. - Arizona Bob - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 10:31 am:

    Teacher layoffs aren’t the only option here. Illinois ranks 12th in teacher salary according to the NEAs latest “ranking and estimates” report, and we spend the 14th highest amount per pupil. High end teacher salaries and benefits are the problem, but the only way they can be addressed is prohibiting teacher strikes. The state can adjust payments to the “rich” overspending districts by reducing all flat and categorical grants proportionately to staff making a certain percentage above state average. If a district is paying over $120,000 per nine months teacher salaries and subsidizing over 90% of the $15000 per year health care premium costs as Paul Vallas old HS is, a strong case can be made that they’re so overfunded locally that they don’t need state aid.

    Texas students outperform those in Illinois in both math and science, and only trail by 2 points (265 to 267) in reading due to their high number of LEP students. There is a higher percentage of low income students in Texas than Illinois.

    To achieve these superior results, Texas average teacher salaries are about $7,000 per year less than Illinois, and they spend about $3100 per student less than here. There’s no comparison in the pension benefits between these states. If Illinois prohibited teacher strikes, the savings, if we follow the Texas reform model, would be about $6.3 billion per year at the state and local level.

    Removing the “income inequality” between overpaid Illinois teachers and fairly paid Texas teachers could solve most of our discretionary budget problems, but it can’t happen unless we remove the “hammer” of teacher and public employee strikes.

    Protecting the children from the damage caused by this striking power is truly a litmus test for candidates.

    If you care about the children or taxpayers, you prohibit teacher strikes, as Mayor Daley and Paul Vallas demanded during the CPS reforms, as a first step towards reform.

    Funny no one on the GOP side is proposing this….


  22. - Cassandra - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 10:45 am:

    I’ve lived in Oak Park longer than WS and no candidate of either party has ever knocked on my door. The Democrats are complacent. The Republicans are nonexistent. Not a good situation unless you get a thrill out of paying jumbo-sized property tax bills.

    I doubt that enthusiasm is going to be a theme in the upcoming election. But Rauner’s best chance, given Illinois demographics, is to try and get as many Democrats as possible to stay home while trying not to annoy too many Republicans with his big city financial guy ways. Not sure how you do that, but all that anti-union hype clearly hasn’t helped. If there were only time travel. But I wish him well. We need more real political races here in Illinois.


  23. - Arizona Bob - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 10:46 am:

    Don’t underestimate that the effect of Tom Cross and Radogno’s “leadership” not recruiting viable candidates in most Senate and House races is a major factor in the disproportionate failure factor.

    When I ran for the state house in 2012, I was there pretty much because no one else would stand up. Our district is 55-45 Dem, with about 23% minority voters. I couldn’t even get a return phone call from Cross, let alone any money.They wouldn’t even send me their polling data. ONly the local committeemen were able to get into voter vault, and then GOP Chairman Brady made it as difficult as possible. Frauds like Roeser just took care of a few of their political friends, despite conservative bonafides fo other candidnates, and that whole “GOP Rennaissance” scam he ran was a sham.

    Spending a million dollars on a single house race is absolutely idiotic. That could have made 20 more seats competitive if you had the right candidates, and a commitment of $50K for each race would’ve brought out those candidates.

    The GOP state leadership has ignored getting the right people on school boards, which today is the biggest source of legal patronage hiring (and ground game)support.

    A few local committeemen like Sean Morrison, Liz Gorman, and Shaun Murphy get it and recruit and support candidates locally, but the corruption and incompetence of the GOP state leadership is the biggest obstacle to challenging Madigan.


  24. - Frank - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 10:52 am:

    Has anyone asked the backer of the “fair map” amendment why their proposal just addresses General Assembly redistricting and not the Congressional map in Illinois?

    Nationally, Democratic House candidates out polled GOP candidates in total by more than 1.1 million votes, yet the GOP holds a 33 vote majority in the U.S. House.

    Seems like if this “fair map” movement was really about non-partisan good government, the advocates would want to address Congressional redistricting too. Or maybe I’m missing something and Congress really is a gerrymandering-free bastion of non-partisan politics.


  25. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 10:55 am:

    I’ve said it before and I will say it again:

    When Republicans have equally good ideas, Republicans will have an equal chance of controlling the majority in the General Assembly.

    All but three Republicans in the General Assembly opposed marriage equality, even though a 2013 Crain’s poll found that only 29% of Illinoisans oppose marriage equality.

    So, guess what? Republicans are in the political doghouse.

    After 1994, Democrats shifted the recruitment of candidates and the platform of the party toward where the majority of voters are (hard to remember Democrats once opposed parental notification laws), worked hard and won back the majority.

    Instead of working hard to represent the majority of Illinoisans, Republicans and their allies want to change the rules of the game to ensure their extremist views rule the day.

    Want proof?

    Look at the performance gap between moderate Republicans Judy Baar Topinka, Mark Kirk and even Dan Rutherford compared to conservative Bill Brady.

    If Republicans recruited and supported more legislative candidates that are ideologically closer to Topinka and Kirk, they’d be in the majority, or at least much closer.


  26. - lake county democrat - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 10:55 am:

    Wordslinger - the Dems may work harder than the republicans, but as the second part of Rich’s article shows, much of their power comes from their anti-democratic usurping of “one man, one vote” than their hard work.


  27. - ZC - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 11:06 am:

    If it is the Washington Nick Goedert paper the column is referencing (and it looks like it is), I’ve skimmed the paper and have some reactions:

    I’m not sure the votes-seats ratio can be compared that fruitfully from the DC House district level to the _state_ IL House level. One problem is the competition level, and also the underlying geographical distribution of districts. DC seats have more prestige / power attached to them, and due to their raw size (they’re harder to place entirely within urban districts) they tend at least to be marginally more competitive. They at least attract challengers. Within IL, some of those state House seats are Republican wastelands, especially in Cook (outside Cook, at least the Dems usually field candidates). That’s gotta depress turnout. The question is which way that cuts and which party’s “real support” it hurts more.

    I crunched the statewide 2012 House numbers myself once and got very similar numbers; about 52% Democrat, 48% Republican. But in Cook County, it was 83 PERCENT Democratic, 17% Republican. Everywhere else in the state in 2012 it was 35% Dem, 65% Repub. The Republicans’ #1 electoral headache in this state is still Cook County. Is that due to gerrymandering? Maybe … or maybe Cook County voters just really aren’t buying what the IL Republican party is selling these days.

    So there have got to be some potential voters in Cook who aren’t voting, because 1) why bother and 2) maybe more important, neither party particularly feels the need right now to go after and mobilize them, And it’s not clear to me that this disproportionately depresses Republican turnout in the NE corner of the state. It could just as much be, there are even MORE Democrats in Cook, or Democratic-leaning independents, but they’re like, “Whatever.” That 60% share of Democratic seats won in IL might be more broadly descriptive than the 2012 votes percentage indicates. Again, maybe. It’s hard to say for sure. Someone with better access to GIS software could crunch the numbers.

    My last comment is based on my interpretation of that Goedert paper, if I read it right a “bipartisan map” that tried as much as possible to respect community boundaries and cut up the state into neat little boxes might reduce Democratic wins, in that Democrats might win a -smaller- percentage of the statewide vote cast (or their great hope might become Hispanic voters in the suburbs). That’s what Goedert says is happening in most states at the DC level. That might be true, too, and might explain why Speaker Madigan really doesn’t want this remap amendment to pass.


  28. - lake county democrat - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 11:07 am:

    Frank - according to the backers’ FAQ they couldn’t include congressional districts because a citizen-driven amendment can only reform the state-level redistricting process.


  29. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 11:13 am:

    ===Instead of working hard to represent the majority of Illinoisans, Republicans and their allies want to change the rules of the game to ensure their extremist views rule the day.===

    With respect, I get the “lose the game, try to change the rules argument”, but - YDD -, you are going a bit far speculating Slytherin Republicans are THE reason, and a Slytherin agenda is driving this completely.

    The loudest, as in many partisan battles for both sides, rarely indicate a full majority view. The “rules” thing I get, the “agenda driven” tact being the primary driver is rhetoric too.

    ===If Republicans recruited and supported more legislative candidates that are ideologically closer to Topinka and Kirk, they’d be in the majority, or at least much closer.===

    If the SGOP and HGOP recruited and supported candidates that mirror the districts and embrace 80% of My Party’s premise of policy and leadership, then you have more wins, a greater opportunity to build, and better opportunities for statewide candidates embracing the Reagan Rule and tolerance of growth, not the intolerance of policy and belief.

    That, those two solid avenues, lead to electoral success…for My Party.

    With great respect, - YDD -.


  30. - VanillaMan - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 11:21 am:

    Political gerrymandering sucks, no matter who does it. With today’s technologies, voters aren’t picking the elected, through gerrymandering, the elected are picking the voters.

    Letting the elected pick the voters is what gerrymandering has become. It is now unbelievably corrupt and needs to end.


  31. - Chicago Cynic - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 11:33 am:

    As much as these gerrymandered results seem troubling, I don’t find them the remotest bit “astounding.” You compare these to the results in Federal elections in states like PA, OH and MI, and this is mild by comparison.

    Take PA for example. Dems won 51% of the vote in 2012 but Rs won 13 of 18 (72.2%) congressional seats. Same with Ohio (12 of 16). Same nationally (Dems won 1.4 million more votes nationally but Rs won 17 more seats.

    In short, gerrymandering is a serious problem nationally, but let’s not get melodramatic that IL is alone in this or even the worst offender.


  32. - PublicServant - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 11:35 am:

    CC, gerrymandering is only an issue if Democrats do it.


  33. - wordslinger - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 11:44 am:

    –but as the second part of Rich’s article shows, much of their power comes from their anti-democratic usurping of “one man, one vote” than their hard work.–

    Rich said that? Where?

    Maybe you should just speak for yourself.


  34. - wordslinger - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 11:48 am:

    –Funny no one on the GOP side is proposing this….–

    Bob, I bet you’re surprised all the time that people don’t buy your stuff.


  35. - AFSCME Steward - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 11:54 am:

    Arizona

    “Don’t underestimate that the effect of Tom Cross and Radogno’s “leadership” not recruiting viable candidates in most Senate and House races is a major factor in the disproportionate failure factor.

    When I ran for the state house in 2012, I was there pretty much because no one else would stand up.”

    Maybe they didn’t back you because you weren’t a viable candidate.


  36. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 11:57 am:

    (Sigh)

    - Arizona Bob -,

    The “Blame the teachers” is as lazy as the supporting arguments. Illinois is not Texas.

    ===The GOP state leadership has ignored getting the right people on school boards, which today is the biggest source of legal patronage hiring (and ground game)support.===

    School boards are to be Non-Partisan. You want to overtly make it quite partisan? That ignorance will result in politics being overtly overshadowing, and that is good for schools?

    - lake county democrat -, victims blame the game, winners look to win the game. The rest is rhetoric borderline excuses. Dems work harder, smarter, understand GOTV, and maximizd field operations. They do.

    - ZC -,

    === The Republicans’ #1 electoral headache in this state is still Cook County. Is that due to gerrymandering? Maybe … or maybe Cook County voters just really aren’t buying what the IL Republican party is selling these days.===

    You can’t control turnout, and actually, physically have a mechanism to vote found “Pluses” or even drag out “Hard ‘R’ Voters”, the idea of the message driving the bus on such weak Cook County numbers doesn’t “Wash”.

    If was 4 votes a precinct in Cook that sunk Brady, with the turnout as it was. If you can’t control who you bring, and maximize the impact by the plurality, the “Percebtages” are just fun parlor games of the “What if we…” crowd.

    I get all you are saying and pointed out, but if don’t control any GOTV, and the turnout is low and uncontrolled, and you couldn’t find 4 votes per precinct to drag out, it’s on the Griund Game, 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, message a distant 4th.

    We get to 90% turnout, then I might feel better knowing no rock was left unturned. That isn’t the case, so a Ground Game, IDing “Pluses”, and voting those “Pluses” is the huge gaping wound on Election Day.


  37. - Anon - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 11:59 am:

    “In 2012, Republicans maintained a 33-seat majority in the House, even though GOP candidates as a group got 1.4 million fewer votes than their Democratic opponents… It was only the second time since World War II that the party receiving the most votes failed to win a majority of House seats, according to statistics compiled by the House Clerk.

    “Nationally, Obama received nearly 5 million more votes than Republican Mitt Romney. But in some states, large numbers of Obama’s votes were packed into heavily Democratic congresssional districts. As a result, Romney won 17 more House districts than Obama.”

    SOURCE: Associated Press, March 31, 2014 GOP has built-in advantage in fight for U.S. House
    http://www.dailyherald.com/article/20140331/news/140339862/


  38. - lake county democrat - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 12:08 pm:

    Wordslinger - here’s where he said it:

    –Of course, the Democrats completely control the map process here. Nationally, the Republicans don’t control every state’s remap process. So there would be an expected bump here. But the numbers in the Senate were even more dramatic. Senate Democratic candidates won a total of 52 percent of the vote. That would translate historically into 54 percent of the seats, but the party won 68 percent of all Senate seats….

    So, not all those 2012 wins can be attributed to the map. The Republicans were fighting straight uphill with Obama at the top shooting down. However, Obama won’t be on the ballot this year. Voter unrest is obviously quite high yet again in the President’s second off-year election, so we’ll soon see just how solidly Democratic those district maps really are. My guess is they’ll hold up pretty well.–

    If you want to guess differently, go right ahead.


  39. - VanillaMan - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 12:13 pm:

    It is laughable to read through these blogs written by guys who expect to see a GOP ground game looking like a Democratic ground game, and the whole time, have spent the last four years denouncing Tea Party organizations and ignoring them.

    Rauner is the GOP nominee in large part by his support of the Illinois Tea Party. He won over the three GOP reruns, by going after the Tea Parties throughout the state.

    But then, the guys who aren’t seeing a GOP ground game, have hated on the Tea Party since 2010. How many times have I heard one of these guys claim that the Tea Party was going to disappear? It is 2014, and there are still new chapters being formed across the state.

    So perhaps what we are seeing is a new GOP ground game, based on the Tea Party. Being fiscally focused and more moderate on social issues, there could be a reason why Rauner wasn’t booed at Tea Party meetings, debates and candidate events.

    Perhaps you guys aren’t recognizing the new GOP grassroots, because you just hate them or dismiss them.

    They won the nomination. Now, let us see if they bring new life into the GOP ground game - that is if the old fuddy-duddies who regularly blog here and proclaim all things that are to be know, open their damn eyes and open their closed minds? Just because you don’t like the grassroots, doesn’t mean they don’t exist.

    The fact that they don’t look like the old grassroots, or the Democratic ground game, doesn’t mean they aren’t in existence.

    Just a few thoughts, gentlemen and ladies…


  40. - wordslinger - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 12:16 pm:

    Who knew that Rauner was a Tea Party candidate? And that they have a ground game?

    Tell us, VMan, what other GOP statewide candidates owe their success to the Tea Party ground game?


  41. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 12:24 pm:

    ===But then, the guys who aren’t seeing a GOP ground game, have hated on the Tea Party since 2010. How many times have I heard one of these guys claim that the Tea Party was going to disappear? It is 2014, and there are still new chapters being formed across the state.===

    I saw the vaunted Rauner Ground Game. So did the Unions. This “Tea Party” Dopiness, seems fly into the face of how Bruce Rauner, general election candidate seems to say, with his wife being the Prop to say it.

    The Dems would absolutely live a “Tea Party”, Rauner, running with Oberweis, and Rauner’s 9 houses, and “.01%” rhetoric fueling commercials of this “Tea Paty” Rauner.

    It won’t happen, because Raunerite Leadership is not with the Tea Party. If the Tea Party members are Lemmings and vote against their better self, both Rauners won’t stop them, lol.

    There was no Rauner Ground Game, and the Unions exposed that.


  42. - Walter Mitty - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 12:28 pm:

    OW… The unions got the membership out to vote against PQ and for DLArd who is much more valued by the teachers for sure. Again, I don’t think those teachers come out to support someone who cut the benefits. I watched the echange when Rauner was at IEA. He is for not touching current benefts. I just don’t see any teachers I know in support of Quinn. They had there chance, great surge but not enough.


  43. - Arizona Bob - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 12:29 pm:

    @Oswego
    =The “Blame the teachers” is as lazy as the supporting arguments. Illinois is not Texas.=

    Yeah OW, researching school costs and comparing results is “lazy”. The blame isn’t with the teachers. They get as much as they can out of the system, and use every poltical advantage they can get. I can appreciate that. The problem is with the pols who sold out the kids and taxpayers for a few union bucks. If you don’t understand that, you truly are a dope.

    You are right on one thing. Illinois is not Texas. Texas is growing its economy and job base among the fastest in the nation. They provide a better quality of K-12 public education than Illinois (as well as higher ed. We don’t have ANYTHING public as good as UT Austin or TAM here). They provide fair wages in education, but they put the student needs above the educrat greed. We are not like Texas. They’re much better than we are, but we could be just as good if people like you would embrace change and stand up for the kids and taxpayers instead the corrupt status quo.

    =School boards are to be Non-Partisan. You want to overtly make it quite partisan? That ignorance will result in politics being overtly overshadowing, and that is good for schools?=

    If you really think that school boards are “non-partisan” in fact, you truly are a dope or just plain ignorant of the process. School Boards are used as “stepping stones” for higher office. You cut your teeth there before moving on to Springfield or beyond. You typically get elected by kissing the ring of the local political organizations to get that 12″ of the off period vote it takes to win. State Senator Mike Hastings, and many others, got started that way. They grant favors, get people contracts and jobs, give away the store to the unions, then cash in that support when they run for higher office. If you don’t understand that progression, you have no bonafides to call ANYONE a dope.


  44. - AFSCME Steward - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 12:30 pm:

    Vanilla

    “Rauner is the GOP nominee in large part by his support of the Illinois Tea Party. He won over the three GOP reruns, by going after the Tea Parties throughout the state.”

    Other than primaries, exactly how many Tea Party backed candidates have won statewide elections ?


  45. - Formerly Known As... - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 12:30 pm:

    Any love the Tea Party may have for Rauner is wholly unrequited.


  46. - Formerly Known As... - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 12:32 pm:

    ZC - very interesting stuff. That gap in Cook County is unbelievable.


  47. - AFSCME Steward - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 12:34 pm:

    Walter

    “OW… The unions got the membership out to vote against PQ and for DLArd who is much more valued by the teachers for sure.”

    No, the unions got out the vote to repeat Rauner.


  48. - Walter Mitty - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 12:34 pm:

    I think it’s not the Tea Party as the term has been maginalized. I am for lower taxes, fiscally conservative, and feel social issues are not for the government to decide. I voted for Clinton. I voted for GW. Seems like there is plenty of folks in Illinois that subscribe to my thinking. Dismiss the poll last week all you want. It will either drive voters out for Rauner or keep many of what PQ expects, either way… Rauner has a very good shot.


  49. - D.P.Gumby - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 12:35 pm:

    The exception to all of this is Sangamon County where Republican patronage hiring and Cellini and the Republican machine was constructed during Thompson/Edgar/Ryan and has been thriving ever since.


  50. - AFSCME Steward - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 12:35 pm:

    That should be

    No, the unions got out the vote to defeat Rauner.


  51. - Walter Mitty - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 12:37 pm:

    AFSCME you are making my point… How many teachers will be so inclined to come out for Quinn? Time will tell but if DLard won, do you think they really would be for Quinn… I think the motivation is gone.


  52. - AFSCME Steward - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 12:39 pm:

    AFSCME was for D-Lard all the way. They would have backed him in the fall. But the vote was aimed at Rauner, who is seen as a bigger threat than Quinn.


  53. - Walter Mitty - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 12:46 pm:

    Time will tell… From the teachers stand point, I would disagree. PQ diminished. Rauner says he will not touch current folks.. That’s a tough ask for teachers to support Quinn in big numbers…Sitting out is much more of a probablity for their rank and file…


  54. - AFSCME Steward - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 12:47 pm:

    Walter

    “I am for lower taxes, fiscally conservative, and feel social issues are not for the government to decide”

    We agree on a whole lot. So do many other Illinois voters, including union people such as myself. Why then are the Dems virtually in control of the state ? The ILGOP has lost message. It has become increasingly the home of Tea Party crackpots, that have the answer for everything, but the knowledge of nothing. The failure to create an alternative budget is an example of lost message. It is great to be against taxes. However, it does take revenue to run government. As has been documented on this blog many times, Illinois taxes are actually lower than most surrounding states, including the Tea Party darling Wisconsin. If Illinois can be run without the tax increase being made permanent than the ILGOP needs to show how. Vague states about making cuts don’t work. Saying no to everything doesn’t work. Only a realistic approach to governing will interest voters.


  55. - AFSCME Steward - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 12:48 pm:

    Vague statements about making cuts don’t work

    That should read


  56. - Charlie Wheeler - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 12:58 pm:

    Point of information–

    One man, one vote– or one person, one vote– refers to “The principle that all citizens, regardless of where they reside in a state, are entitled to equal legislative representation.” The principle was set out by the U.S. Supreme Court in Reynolds v. Sims in 1964, and requires that legislative seats must be allocated on the basis of population, so that the voting power of each voter is as equal as possible to that of any other voter.
    Source: “http://legal-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/One+man,+one+vote”

    The Illinois Constitution requires that legislative districts be “substantially equal” in population. Article IV, Section 3 (a). Under the 2011 legislation that created the current legislative boundaries, the most populous legislative district has one more person than the least populous, based on the 2010 census.

    Thus it would appear that the current map meets the requirements of the “one person, one vote” principle and of the Illinois Constitution.

    Charlie Wheeler


  57. - lake county democrat - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 12:58 pm:

    Raunner is the “High Tea” party candidate.


  58. - A guy... - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 1:03 pm:

    -===AFSCME Steward =====

    Addressing your point from much earlier re: Rauner and the party of ‘no’. Rauner has an extremely successful track record, no matter what the folks who dislike him say. He’s more like a Bloomberg type. If people think our problems in this state are Financial (I think you and I can agree on this), Rauner represents financial expertise. The hard core Dems are gonna go with Quinn- not necessarily all the folks in your membership or the IEA. Even Hard Core Righties will plug their nose and cast for Rauner over Quinn. That leaves everyone in the middle to decide on what message they’ll respond to. A business guy might just look very good to them right now. Quickly, name the last one? Gotta go back beyond my memory to get anything but a government wonk. As crazy as it might sound today, the party machines (on either side- stipulating that the GOP barely has one) may have less influence in this election than ever before. We saw it hinted at a bit in the primary. It bears watching.


  59. - wordslinger - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 1:08 pm:

    –Rauner represents financial expertise.–

    How so?

    Rauner comparing himself to Mitt Romney:

    “I’m a salesman. He’s an analyst.”


  60. - dupage dan - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 1:11 pm:

    It seems like Rauner is in a Catch22 situation. Not being a long time GOP politician he doesn’t have an army of GOTV staffers running around. And he can’t build one overnite - however, if he wins that will help lay the groundwork for future elections. So, he can’t win without the door knockers but he can’t easily get ‘em unless he wins. Is that about it?

    I am not a Raunerite - just making an observation.


  61. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 1:21 pm:

    ===Yeah OW, researching school costs and comparing results is “lazy”. The blame isn’t with the teachers. They get as much as they can out of the system, and use every poltical advantage they can get. I can appreciate that. The problem is with the pols who sold out the kids and taxpayers for a few union bucks. If you don’t understand that, you truly are a dope.===

    If you don’t understand that Illinois Teachers and Unions and the ramifications that being anti-Union doesn’t work, polling included, and Bruce Rauner’s tact now, you need get out if the desert sun.

    ===If you really think that school boards are “non-partisan” in fact, you truly are a dope or just plain ignorant of the process===

    Nope. Having an overt “D” or “R” makes the process complicated at that level. If it didn’t matter, it would be partisan.

    Also, learn to read.

    “Overt”. Do you know it’s meaning? While both parties may have an interest, nothing is overt overall, in all school board races.

    ===You typically get elected by kissing the ring of the local political organizations to get that 12″ of the off period vote it takes to win. State Senator Mike Hastings, and many others, got started that way.===

    Yep. It’s a proving ground. Non-Partisan to see what these upstarts bring to the table, on their own.

    Stay out of the sun, your brain is getting warped. You don’t read, your flawed ideas of what the ILGOP needs.

    You despise teachers, and the flawed sense of Illinois Politics, and where things fall into place is amusing.


  62. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 1:45 pm:

    === Even Hard Core Righties will plug their nose and cast for Rauner over Quinn===

    Based on? Where do you get that Hardcore Righties are going to go with Rauner?

    ===As crazy as it might sound today, the party machines (on either side- stipulating that the GOP barely has one) may have less influence in this election than ever before. We saw it hinted at a bit in the primary. It bears watching.===

    lol.

    That is the Raunerite “hope”

    The reality is that MJM, Cullerton, the Dems, they are all lining up with the premise of “Oberweis/Rauner”, and the Cake both Rauners are baking, versus the Quinn typical Democratic Cake reminds me; Rauner is not a Republican. Quinn is a Democrat. Rauner has no very specific political base, and no Ground Game. Quinn has the Unions, typical Democratic constituencies within his grasp, and a GOTV that has seen the Rauner GOTV.


  63. - Arizona Bob - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 1:52 pm:

    @OW
    =Nope. Having an overt “D” or “R” makes the process complicated at that level. If it didn’t matter, it would be partisan.

    Also, learn to read.

    “Overt”. Do you know it’s meaning? While both parties may have an interest, nothing is overt overall, in all school board races.=

    You better learn some reading, OW. I never said school races SHOULD be partisan, I said that they currently ARE partisan driven. Go to a school board meeting sometime and research the candidates and maybe you’ll learn something of which you’re speaking.

    =You despise teachers, and the flawed sense of Illinois Politics, and where things fall into place is amusing.=

    I’m glad I entertain you, OW. On the other point about “despising” teachers, you once again have no clue about which you speak. I value teaching so highly that I took three years off from my management job to teach at the HS and college level (at a cost to me of about $70K per year) because I believe that the only way for us to fix our dysfunctional and failing educational system in Illinois is for accomplished professionals to get into the classrooms and change things for the better. I taught at over 14 Illinois High schools while I was teaching at college to find out about the “culture” of K-12 public education in Illinois and taught two years of math and honors physics at a hgih school. I found out that the problem wasn’t the kids and it wasn’t the funding, it was the culture of entitlement and greed I found in the administrations and staff, the patronage that trumped talent in hiring, and the crookednessand inefficiency I found in capital work in the schools.

    Perhaps you support that system, and maybe even are a part of it. That certainly would help explain your constant failed attempts to defend the indefensible.

    Why not explain to us all why the 12th highest paid state teachers can’t rise above mediocrity in student outcomes, while less dysfunctional states like Texas do spending much less? Fill this room with your intelligence!


  64. - FormerParatrooper - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 1:57 pm:

    Honestly neither the Republicans or the Democrats have shown anything substantial. I hear their words, watch their actions and have faith in neither. The Republicans want to be in office, yet they act like the opponents to the Globetrotters. They are just fodder to entertain the masses.

    The Democrats act as if they are entitled to office and no one will change that perception.

    The district maps need to be drawn up by non partisan committed, without politicians being part of the process. That will never happen tho.

    I would really like someone to vote for.


  65. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 2:05 pm:

    - Arizona Bob -,

    Should teachers have the right to strike?

    I’ll wait for that fun response. That is where your Illinois political acumen fails you. Again.

    ===You better learn some reading, OW. I never said school races SHOULD be partisan, I said that they currently ARE partisan driven. Go to a school board meeting sometime and research the candidates and maybe you’ll learn something of which you’re speaking.===

    Making the races “D” or “R” solves nothing, and the best way to measure someone coming from school boards to run for another office is to measure the support they bring themselves to that low level.

    If you think making people run as Republicans for school board is going to … “help” … in all this, overtly, in Illinois, that speaks more to you not getting Cross if HGOP support than almost anything. Your “Texas/Red State” principles, are not Illinois winning strategies.


  66. - A guy... - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 2:07 pm:

    ==== Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 1:45 pm:

    === Even Hard Core Righties will plug their nose and cast for Rauner over Quinn===

    Based on? Where do you get that Hardcore Righties are going to go with Rauner? ++++

    Oh, I don’t know. Maybe the primary? Don’t those kinds of voters vote there too? Given the choice between PQ and BR, do you think they’ll leave it blank? They may threaten to, but they won’t. Some of those ultra conservative voters you call Slytherin, are more fiscal slytherin than social slytherin.

    ===As crazy as it might sound today, the party machines (on either side- stipulating that the GOP barely has one) may have less influence in this election than ever before. We saw it hinted at a bit in the primary. It bears watching.===

    lol.

    That is the Raunerite “hope”

    The reality is that MJM, Cullerton, the Dems, they are all lining up with the premise of “Oberweis/Rauner”, and the Cake both Rauners are baking, versus the Quinn typical Democratic Cake reminds me; Rauner is not a Republican. Quinn is a Democrat. Rauner has no very specific political base, and no Ground Game. Quinn has the Unions, typical Democratic constituencies within his grasp, and a GOTV that has seen the Rauner GOTV.

    === you’ve been so accurate so far, I can’t wait to see how this one turns out.====


  67. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 2:13 pm:

    ===Given the choice between PQ and BR, do you think they’ll leave it blank? They may threaten to, but they won’t. Some of those ultra conservative voters you call Slytherin, are more fiscal slytherin than social slytherin.===

    Got any facts, or is that opinion?

    === you’ve been so accurate so far, I can’t wait to see how this one turns out.===

    Losing 17 points in a Day, 6 weeks versus 6 months to prepare for a ground game… Raunerite v. Democrat….


  68. - Precinct Captain - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 2:13 pm:

    ==Letting the elected pick the voters is what gerrymandering has become. It is now unbelievably corrupt and needs to end.==

    LOL, that’s what it always was buddy. I guess in your mind it wasn’t “unbelievably corrupt” (and I’ll add racist) when the Machine gerrymandered ward boundaries specifically to depress black and Hispanic voting power and specifically to elect white alderman? Wake up, gerrymandering has always been bad. It didn’t get bad because Cullerton and Madigan drew some maps a few years ago.


  69. - Walter Mitty - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 2:18 pm:

    AFSCME… Like so many others, I really appreciate your perspective. It’s funny how when you actually get down to it…. We all want pretty similiar things for our families. Unfortunatley both parties have let us down…Gotta keep pushing!


  70. - Precinct Captain - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 2:21 pm:

    ==Texas is growing its economy and job base among the fastest in the nation.==

    Most of it is due to population growth (and Texas isn’t even keeping up with that) and Texas has the dubious distinction of having the most poverty jobs. Some life, “look Ma, we’re moving to Texas so we can starve!”

    http://money.cnn.com/2011/08/12/news/economy/perry_texas_jobs/


  71. - AFSCME Steward - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 2:24 pm:

    A Guy

    “Addressing your point from much earlier re: Rauner and the party of ‘no’. Rauner has an extremely successful track record”

    His track record is making boatloads of money off the government from the same programs he is now attacking. Bloomberg made his money in private business. A huge amount of Rauner’s money came from Illinois taxpayers.


  72. - A guy... - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 2:26 pm:

    ====Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 2:13 pm:

    ===Given the choice between PQ and BR, do you think they’ll leave it blank? They may threaten to, but they won’t. Some of those ultra conservative voters you call Slytherin, are more fiscal slytherin than social slytherin.===

    Got any facts, or is that opinion?

    === you’ve been so accurate so far, I can’t wait to see how this one turns out.===

    Losing 17 points in a Day, 6 weeks versus 6 months to prepare for a ground game… Raunerite v. Democrat….=====

    And he won, despite the huge “cross-over”. Compare to the Brady margin of victory in the primary- 187 votes, and his loss in the General to Quinn.

    If you win by 3% statewide (lots more than 187) and the other party tried to hijack your primary, how does that compare to a General? It’s a off year on top of it. Your projections lead to great hope for our party. While you continue to apologize for us, we’ll get the heavy lifting done. You’re welcome.


  73. - Norseman - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 2:30 pm:

    === Given the choice between PQ and BR, do you think they’ll leave it blank? ===

    No [he says grinning to the camera], I’m voting for OSWEGO WILLY!


  74. - AFSCME Steward - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 2:30 pm:

    Walter

    “AFSCME… Like so many others, I really appreciate your perspective. It’s funny how when you actually get down to it…. We all want pretty similiar things for our families. Unfortunatley both parties have let us down…Gotta keep pushing! ”

    Excellent point. Unfortunately, every election we seem to have a choice between two really bad candidates. Most time I vote against. Rarely for. Once again, I will be voting against the GOP candidate, not for Quinn.


  75. - A guy... - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 2:31 pm:

    ==== AFSCME Steward - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 2:24 pm:

    A Guy

    “Addressing your point from much earlier re: Rauner and the party of ‘no’. Rauner has an extremely successful track record”

    His track record is making boatloads of money off the government from the same programs he is now attacking. Bloomberg made his money in private business. A huge amount of Rauner’s money came from Illinois taxpayers.=====

    C’mon Steward, did his investments on behalf of ALL of his clients pay off or not? Did Bloomberg never invest for or offer advice on public entities? It’s hard to believe that in that business. If Rauner made industry standard commission on strong investments for his clients, wouldn’t that tell you why he was hired by whomever? That fish just doesn’t swim. Smart money goes where it becomes more money, no matter who the client is.


  76. - Rich Miller - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 2:32 pm:

    === If Rauner made industry standard commission on strong investments for his clients===

    It goes well beyond pension investments. His firm owns tons of hospitals and nursing homes. That means lotsa Medicaid dollars.


  77. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 2:37 pm:

    ===If you win by 3% statewide (lots more than 187) and the other party tried to hijack your primary, how does that compare to a General? It’s a off year on top of it. Your projections lead to great hope for our party. While you continue to apologize for us, we’ll get the heavy lifting done. You’re welcome.===

    “If you win by 3% statewide (lots more than 187) and you hijack a party in the primary, how does that compare to actually being … a Republican? It’s a off year on top of it, so mocking and hijacking the ILGOP has been easy. Your projections lead to the demise of the Republican Party. While you continue to fight for Reagan Rule Republicans, Raunerbots will keep trying to destroy the ILGOP. Raunerite style! You’re welcome.”


  78. - wordslinger - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 2:37 pm:

    –Did Bloomberg never invest for or offer advice on public entities?–

    Huh? Bloomberg made his fortune with subscription market news. He wasn’t investing anything for anyone.


  79. - steve schnorf - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 3:08 pm:

    Anyone who publicly attributes much of Bruce Rauner’s success to Tea Partiers or links him in any way with the Tea Party isn’t doing him any favor and I’ll bet he wishes they would stop. That was yesterday, not today. If you think the “Republican” label hurts you in polls, try “Tea Party”.


  80. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 3:10 pm:

    Apologies - Walter Mitty -,

    I was not ignoring you calling me out.

    For me, with the Unions endorsing Quinn as they have been, and given how the Unions were impactful against Rauner in the primary, the motivation comes into play with leadership understanding that endorsing Quinn must be a strategy to aid Quinn to get him over the finish line, and with Rauner showing GOTV/Ground Game vulnerability, those endorsements and the impact for both the Unions and Quinn need to be in Quinn winning, and getting all Unions to speak in one bounce against Rauner, who has on his website a desire fur Right to Work as one of his few stated positions.

    Should be pretty easy decision; can they get it out to make it a viable GOTV, we are going to see, but Unions would be hard pressed to sell Rauner as an option, lol.


  81. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 4:48 pm:

    Oswego Willy-

    Point well-taken.

    Much of the support for changing redistricting comes from reformers who think there is some sort of legislative alchemy to beating “The Machine.”

    I offer the same advice to them that you offer to the GOP: try working for a change.


  82. - A guy... - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 5:13 pm:

    === Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 4:48 pm:

    Oswego Willy-

    Point well-taken.

    Much of the support for changing redistricting comes from reformers who think there is some sort of legislative alchemy to beating “The Machine.”

    I offer the same advice to them that you offer to the GOP: try working for a change.====

    Yellow Dog, can’t and won’t defend the history of the GOP screaming more from the sidelines with less blocking and tackling on the field. We do need to work a lot harder. The fair map issue is very popular and supported by both parties, every color dog D and R there are. There’s a high level of distrust among both parties. The map still resonates in a lot of places. When 5 (?) Congressional districts shift, you’ve got to admit that the map had its effect. Like them or not, Dold, Schilling, Walsh, Biggert all worked hard that cycle. Roskam and Hultgren enjoyed the support of all the Republicans who were reshuffled. This partisan map business is wrong no matter who does it. We may still wind up with strong majorities in the D party, who knows? If we did, wouldn’t you prefer that to a deliberately tilted field, no matter who’s doing the tilting? Then, it would make a better case that the Rs don’t work hard enough. The way to get rid of “target races- Tier Ones” is to make all of them or as many as possible, target races. At least in theory, then it would come down to performance. In a few places, it has. Wouldn’t it be nice if that were the case everywhere (or almost everywhere). Even in the “safer” districts, the people might get 2 shots- a primary and a general- at enforcing those term limits they get to impose with elections.


  83. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 5:45 pm:

    ===Congressional districts shift, you’ve got to admit that the map had its effect. Like them or not, Dold, Schilling, Walsh, Biggert all worked hard that cycle===

    Biggert loses 58-42
    Walsh loses 55-45
    Schilling loses 53-47

    Those are not Map loses, bug I will very fee are crying over Walsh.

    Dold’s loss “It’s a North Shore thing”. The Map had impact, but Independence in that seat is what is more interesting. Remember that “shade of paint” commercial? “North Shore” thing…


  84. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 5:46 pm:

    “Those are not Map loses, but very few are crying over Walsh.”


  85. - olddog - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 11:37 pm:

    === I value teaching so highly that I took three years off from my management job to teach at the HS and college level (at a cost to me of about $70K per year) because I believe that the only way for us to fix our dysfunctional and failing educational system in Illinois is for accomplished professionals to get into the classrooms and change things for the better. I taught at over 14 Illinois High schools while I was teaching at college to find out about the “culture” of K-12 public education in Illinois and taught two years of math and honors physics at a hgih school. ===

    From one classroom teacher to another — do you think you might be more knowledgeable about education issues if you’d stayed with one group of students long enough to understand how they learn and how their learning is (or isn’t) reflected in test scores?


  86. - papak - Monday, Apr 28, 14 @ 11:37 pm:

    That the maps did not cause loses is false.Schilling lost because of the map his district was redrawn to go into the westside of Rockford. In a fair map Rockford is kept together in 1 district.
    DOLD! also lost because the map drew the 10th towards the left.


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