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Rauner up by 12

Monday, Jul 14, 2014

* My weekly syndicated newspaper column….

A new Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll found Republican Bruce Rauner leading Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn 51-39. That’s pretty much the same margin the pollster found for another client a month ago.

The poll of 940 likely voters was taken July 8th and has a margin of error of ±3.2 percent. 30 percent of the calls were made to mobile phones.

Gov. Quinn has repeatedly blasted Rauner for using complicated loopholes to avoid some taxes. I wanted to test the issue.

“Republican Bruce Rauner’s tax returns for 2010 and 2011 show that despite making around $55 million, he was not required to pay Social Security or Medicare taxes,” respondents were told.

60 percent said that made them less likely to vote for Rauner. 20 percent said it made no difference either way and another 20 percent said it made them more likely to vote for the candidate.

A dangerously high 66 percent of women said the tax issue made them less likely to vote for the candidate, compared to a 49 percent plurality of men. 27 percent of men said the news actually made them more likely to vote for Rauner, compared to 23 percent who said it made no difference.

That’s probably because Rauner is doing much better with men than women, despite running a zillion TV ads prominently featuring women. While he leads Quinn 60-33 among men, his female lead is just 3 points, 46-43. Quinn will surely put lots of focus there.

The poll shows Rauner is doing as well in Chicago as Republican US Sen. Mark Kirk did in his 2010 statewide victory, getting 20.5 percent to Kirk’s 19.5 percent. Quinn absolutely has to keep Rauner away from that 20 percent number or he’s toast. And the best way to do that is through negative TV ads.

The tax issue works very well in the city, with 73 percent saying they’d be less likely to vote for Rauner. However, 27 percent said it either didn’t matter (14 percent) or made them more likely to vote for Rauner (13 percent).

The poll also shows Quinn cratering in suburban Cook, with Rauner leading that traditionally Democratic stronghold 50-41. Quinn won the region by 13 points four years ago, and Republican Mark Kirk lost it by 9 points.

The tax issue made 59 percent of suburban Cook voters less likely to cast a ballot for Rauner.

Gov. Quinn is getting pounded in Downstate, losing the region 64-25, but the tax issue works fairly well against Rauner, with 59 percent of Downstaters saying it made them less likely to vote for the Republican. The issue works less well in the wealthier collar counties, however. Rauner leads Quinn 58-36 in the collars and voters were about evenly split on the tax issue, with 51 percent saying it made them less likely to vote for him, and 49 percent saying it either made no difference (23 percent) or made them more likely to vote for him (29 percent).

Quinn has also demanded that Rauner release his 2013 tax returns, which Rauner has not yet filed. Rauner responded last week by saying he would release the returns in due time and then pivoted to say: “Pat Quinn needs to release all documents and e-mails pertaining to the Neighborhood Recovery Initiative.”

As it turns out, the federal investigation into Quinn’s now infamous anti-violence program is just as bad for Quinn as Rauner’s tax situation is for the challenger.

“It was recently reported that a program implemented by Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn is under federal investigation for misuse of government funds,” respondents were told.

60 percent said that made them less likely to vote for Quinn, with 19 percent saying it made no difference and 21 percent saying it made them more likely to vote for him.

Considering Rauner’s big lead among men, the impact of the federal probe works “better” with men than women, with 64 percent of men saying it makes them less likely to vote for Quinn versus 57 percent of women.

The attack works best among Downstaters, with a very dangerously high 74 percent saying the investigation makes them less likely to vote for the governor. Any issue polling above 70 percent can be expected to “move” voters on election day.

The revelation worked least well in Chicago, where Quinn’s support is strongest. Just 33 percent said it made them less likely to vote for Quinn, while 30 percent said it made no difference and 39 percent said it actually made them more likely to vote for the guy.

So, the two most recent and prominent campaign issues basically cancel each other out, which is good news for Rauner because he’s sitting on such a big lead.

Discuss.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


63 Comments
  1. - Grandson of Man - Monday, Jul 14, 14 @ 8:53 am:

    I’m not surprised by the results. It’s still early for both candidates. Quinn appears to be in bad shape and can stay that way because of the anti-violence program scandal. Rauner can go down because of the nursing homes and taxes.

    I’d like to see what polls look like once voters find out more about nursing home type stuff. A story just came out about another Rauner company that is allegedly responsible for the deaths of developmentally-disabled people, including an 11-year-old:

    http://quincyjournal.com/regional-beat/2014/07/14/rauner-owned-company-linked-to-deaths,-assaults,-legal-action/


  2. - OneMan - Monday, Jul 14, 14 @ 8:55 am:

    Not surprised by the results, but using another poll that came out recently…

    Imagine an Illinois with a Governor Rauner and a Mayor Lewis…

    Imagine Rich with a bigger boat.


  3. - facts are stubborn things - Monday, Jul 14, 14 @ 8:56 am:

    too early. Means nothing.


  4. - Roadiepig - Monday, Jul 14, 14 @ 8:58 am:

    History has show Quinn has always been a strong finisher , but without something major turning the negatives up on Rauner it appears he is toast this time. Without a huge positive turnout by state workers and retirees to push him over the finish line ( still don’t see that happening with how he has treated those folks the last few years and his continued support for the likely unconstitutional pension theft bill) he won’t win. I continue to believe as citizens of this state that we all lose come November . If we had even a marginal Republican Party here all if this could have been avoided. Unfortunately, we don’t and it became another takeover target for Rauner.


  5. - Grandson of Man - Monday, Jul 14, 14 @ 9:02 am:

    Why should Rauner hurt himself by revealing bad plans when he can just “coast” to victory in November on the unpopularity of Quinn? If you’re a politician, and you know your plans are either bad or stand to be unpopular, why reveal them if you don’t have to?

    “We’ll have a plan later” might not be such a bad strategy, after all.


  6. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jul 14, 14 @ 9:02 am:

    Lots to digest.

    Women are not flocking to Rauner, men seem to like the See-Gar chompin’, Harley Ridin’ Bruce, but the “Softer side of Sears” type advertising has not taken Quinn out if the demographic.

    Personal taxes. Who did the personal oppo on Rauner for Rauner? For a guy claiming he’s been considering a run for a “long time” Rauner was shor-sided in leaving Social Security and Medicare taxes, and that could come back to haunt in the margins.

    A “billionaire” with tax issues seems to be a sweet spot to go at the negatives, and reduce Rauner below 50%, which is interesting that Rauner is above 50%, and the education on Rauner is still so weak. Quinn should learn that there is far more room to knock Rauner down, and leaving that to the press is not helping.

    Quinn will not be moving numbers to the positive with an ongoing federal criminal investigation of his administration that has asked the a GA Committee to stand down. That fact is beyond powerful to hammer and shake Quinn from moving the dismal numbers, especially downstate.

    They both need negatives way up on the other to seal the deal. No one is going to be selling the “New day in Illinois”, or the “Stay the course” tracks to victory. There is just too much room to move voters thru the negatives with these two running.


  7. - wordslinger - Monday, Jul 14, 14 @ 9:04 am:

    No one’s going to win by 11. But those suburban Cook numbers are bad news for Quinn.


  8. - Stones - Monday, Jul 14, 14 @ 9:07 am:

    The Illinois statewide political scene has screamed for a fresh face for a long time and the fact that Rauner has never appeared on a ballot works to his advantage. Are the voters going to hold his more accountable for his lack of candor regarding specifics? I think that is a good possibility as we get closer to election time. It’s been tough for me to dial in on this race.


  9. - better days - Monday, Jul 14, 14 @ 9:08 am:

    best to let win one more time so this welfare state can be bankrupted and drive away even more jobs and taxpaying workers


  10. - Union Man - Monday, Jul 14, 14 @ 9:09 am:

    My neighbors are going with Bruce. We live in the western burbs and folks are just plain tired of the current governor being pretty much useless in Springfield. Nothing getting accomplished just like in Washington. They figure the only way to show their disatisfaction with them is to vote them out of office. I live in Tom Cross’s district and after the Tribune’s article about him Sunday, some are going sour on him as well. Same crap as before.


  11. - Anonymous - Monday, Jul 14, 14 @ 9:10 am:

    51-39=11?


  12. - Union Man - Monday, Jul 14, 14 @ 9:11 am:

    New math standards!!


  13. - Union Man - Monday, Jul 14, 14 @ 9:12 am:

    Common Core Math !!


  14. - Aldyth - Monday, Jul 14, 14 @ 9:14 am:

    Unfortunately, there are voters who aren’t going to look past the surface of the candidates.


  15. - Anonymous - Monday, Jul 14, 14 @ 9:15 am:

    With the new same day registration,I wonder if there’s a different “likely voter” model to adjust for lessened restrictions. Will be interesting to see what effect that has.


  16. - Rich Miller - Monday, Jul 14, 14 @ 9:18 am:

    LOL

    Oops.

    Wrote the headline before my first cuppa joe.


  17. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jul 14, 14 @ 9:21 am:

    ===With the new same day registration,I wonder if there’s a different “likely voter” model to adjust for lessened restrictions. Will be interesting to see what effect that has.===

    The Ground Game with same-day voters is a huge factor ramping up towards Election Day.

    Quinn can win with a huge coordinated Election Day, Rauner can lose with an unorganized shoddy attempt or making no attempt at a real organized specific voting of actual “Pluses” on Election Day.

    Offices don’t vote. “Call me, maybe” is not harvesting, and no massive precinct apparatus coordinated at one central point is not a real GOTV. Stomp your feet, point to addresses, but it’s a process, continual, until the polls close.

    Rauner failed in the Primary. The Unions and Teachers specifically got a good look, and a dry run at the shell of a Field Crew.


  18. - Wumpus - Monday, Jul 14, 14 @ 9:22 am:

    Math is tough.
    - Barbie

    This is great. Although early, Rauner has not shown the likelihood to implode as other aspiring GOP politicians. Let’s hope he is more Judy Barr with money than Oberweis.


  19. - Responsa - Monday, Jul 14, 14 @ 9:26 am:

    Sometimes when you’ve been with the old boyfriend for a long time, and things aren’t working out and he increasingly disappoints you, you just have to finally face facts that the love on both sides has faded. And you let him go. Sure, the long-time boyfriend’s sort of comfortable like an old shoe, life with him was a habit, and he certainly has some redeeming qualities (or obviously you wouldn’t have stayed with him so long).

    You also realize that taking an untested new boyfriend carries some risk, and that he may or may not end up being “the one”. But life is short, and you’re an adult, and you know you owe it to yourself to at least give it a reasonable shot at happiness with a new guy.

    This is why Rauner’s ahead in the polls.


  20. - Jake From Elwood - Monday, Jul 14, 14 @ 9:27 am:

    As an aside Rich, how did you like the Giving Tree Band? I have seen them twice and they put on a great show, no?


  21. - RNUG - Monday, Jul 14, 14 @ 9:28 am:

    - Roadiepig - Monday, Jul 14, 14 @ 8:58 am:

    State retirees / employees don’t have any good choices, only less bad ones. Quinn has tried to take part of their benefits but, so far, been stopped by the courts. Rauner, we don’t know for sure because he’s been all over the place the last six months depending on the day and the audience. Even Rauner’s newer, softer message of let the retirees / employees keep what they have earned to date is Clintonesque in it’s phrasing. Rauner still believes everything can be changed going forward; even in his latest interviews he’s left plenty of room to attack the retirees’ AAI and still wants to immediately switch all current employees to a Defined Contributions plan (401K/43B type).

    Assuming the Pension Reform / SB-0001 case is still in the courts and not ruled on, my guess is most the state employees and their families will decide to vote for Quinn on election day. That’s a pretty good sized block, potentially one out of every five voters (20%).

    Now if the courts knock down SB-0001 before the election in strong language saying the existing retirees and employees can not be touched, no way, no how, then it’s more likley that block will split between the two candidates.


  22. - Cassandra - Monday, Jul 14, 14 @ 9:29 am:

    How little folks understand the details of our current federal tax system. If that $55 million had been treated as compensation rather than capital gains, as it is under current law, he would have had to pay about $10 million more in federal income taxes (top rate of 39.6% vs. 20 % rate on capital gains), but the SS and Medicare taxes would have only been about $10, 000, since they only apply to the first $117,000 of compensation.


  23. - A guy... - Monday, Jul 14, 14 @ 9:29 am:

    To me, the key number for Rauner is 51. He’s now over the one-half threshold. There may be one, but this is the first poll of significance that I’ve seen that shows this. As for Soc. Sec. and FICA, some folks may not like it, but he hasn’t done anything illegal and he can demonstrate a HUGE amount of taxes paid to the Feds and the State when he confronts this when he files.

    My guess is a lot of people will conclude his tax bill is a LOT of scratch. Pat’s problems are that something Illegal took place. There’s nowhere to hide on that one.

    Once you’re at 50, you’re on some solid ground to build on. I don’t predict a big win, but the opportunity to achieve one is now in place. Rauner’s support looks more solid than the “squishy” support Quinn seems to be relying on.


  24. - Rich Miller - Monday, Jul 14, 14 @ 9:35 am:

    === how did you like the Giving Tree Band?===

    Great show.


  25. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jul 14, 14 @ 9:37 am:

    ===As for Soc. Sec. and FICA, some folks may not like it, but he hasn’t done anything illegal and he can demonstrate a HUGE amount of taxes paid to the Feds and the State when he confronts this when he files.===

    From the Post,

    “A dangerously high 66 percent of women said the tax issue made them less likely to vote for the candidate, compared to a 49 percent plurality of men.”

    And…

    “The tax issue works very well in the city, with 73 percent saying they’d be less likely to vote for Rauner.”

    “The tax issue made 59 percent of suburban Cook voters less likely to cast a ballot for Rauner.”

    That, “Rauner did nothing illegal”, is not going to help those numbers.

    It’s a theme for Rauner, “ignore that because I paid this.”

    This polling indicates that calling the non-payment “baloney” and then following up with, “look what I pay” is a sweet spot to take the negatives up.


  26. - Jack Handy - Monday, Jul 14, 14 @ 9:40 am:

    Rasmussen had Brady over Quinn by 13 in first of August.


  27. - Anonymous - Monday, Jul 14, 14 @ 9:41 am:

    ==Sometimes when you’ve been with the old boyfriend for a long time, and things aren’t working out and he increasingly disappoints you, you just have to finally face facts that the love on both sides has faded==

    The analogy is closer to an abusive boyfriend you know you have to leave, but are unsure of the options on where you can go.


  28. - wordslinger - Monday, Jul 14, 14 @ 9:44 am:

    –Rasmussen had Brady over Quinn by 13 in first of August.–

    Yeah, he got his polling and football bets mixed up. He really meant Tom Brady by 13 over Brady Quinn.


  29. - Steve - Monday, Jul 14, 14 @ 9:49 am:

    This is a significant poll. The election is not that far away. Bruce Rauner has money and a 11 points lead. It’s looks like many people have made up their mind about this race.


  30. - Anonymous - Monday, Jul 14, 14 @ 9:52 am:

    ==Rasmussen had Brady over Quinn by 13 in first of August.==

    And then Brady forgot that the State of Illinois included Cook County. Rauner isn’t making that mistake.


  31. - Rich Miller - Monday, Jul 14, 14 @ 9:52 am:

    ===Rasmussen had Brady over Quinn by 13 in first of August===

    Right and they did so because they didn’t include Scott Lee Cohen’s name. SLC took lots more votes from Brady than Quinn. The Tribune pollster did include SLC and the other candidates and their poll was much closer.

    Quinn didn’t surge double digits. It was a classic case of “garbage in, garbage out.”


  32. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jul 14, 14 @ 9:55 am:

    ===This is a significant poll. The election is not that far away. Bruce Rauner has money and a 11 points lead. It’s looks like many people have made up their mind about this race.===

    Except for the 10% undecided, maybe…

    Wishing a win is not actually winning. I guess we all forgot the 17 points Rauner lost in a week?

    ===And then Brady forgot that the State of Illinois included Cook County. Rauner isn’t making that mistake.===

    The ground game. Call me when Rauner has a ground game. Forgetting Cook is not going to happen, having voters remember to come out and vote is another thing.


  33. - wordslinger - Monday, Jul 14, 14 @ 9:55 am:

    –The election is not that far away.–

    It’s an eternity away. In this part of the world, nothing matter right now except these few days of good weather.


  34. - walker - Monday, Jul 14, 14 @ 10:02 am:

    Rauner and his folks have been around Cook Co suburbs more than any GOP gov candidate in my memory. Local restaurants, walking in street fairs, etc. Smart to believe he can do well in Cook.


  35. - Apocolypse Now - Monday, Jul 14, 14 @ 10:04 am:

    Rauner has significantly more money than Brady. Quinn outspent Brady. Don’t think that will happen in this election cycle. People may not like billionaires and the tax loopholes they get, but based on the last two crooked Governors, they really don’t want to elect another Governor and see him go to jail.


  36. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jul 14, 14 @ 10:08 am:

    ===People may not like billionaires and the tax loopholes they get,…===

    “A dangerously high 66 percent of women said the tax issue made them less likely to vote for the candidate, compared to a 49 percent plurality of men.”

    And…

    “The tax issue works very well in the city, with 73 percent saying they’d be less likely to vote for Rauner.”

    “The tax issue made 59 percent of suburban Cook voters less likely to cast a ballot for Rauner.”

    The Post agrees with you, and the Post also makes a point that those voters are least likely to vote for a candidate you describe too, if the voters are educated.


  37. - facts are stubborn things - Monday, Jul 14, 14 @ 10:09 am:

    @Steve - Monday, Jul 14, 14 @ 9:49 am:

    =This is a significant poll. The election is not that far away.=

    The low information voter, almost all these days, is not paying any attention to any of this yet. So much can and will change as we get closer to the election. Steve I love your posts, but I respectfully think you are off on this one. :)


  38. - Anon - Monday, Jul 14, 14 @ 10:25 am:

    Voters apparently abide by the notion of better the devil you don’t know than the devil you do.


  39. - A guy... - Monday, Jul 14, 14 @ 10:31 am:

    OW, you’re so wet it’s not even funny. Rauner has a ground game out there every day, especially on weekends. You’re engaging in your own goofy self fulfilling prophecy. Women voters reacted both ways in the push polls. They’re often moved by issues more than candidates early on- they are the true independents. The results in the City only prove that everyone up to indicted and convicted felons will get the lion’s share of votes if their Democrats. He’s looking for 20% there. If he can ratchet it up to 22 or 23%, it’s “Good night Irene”. That could be happening.

    You’re not on top of anything as it relates to election efforts. Rauner’s everywhere and there are a lot of people walking precincts. You refuse to accept so many of the changing dynamics of this cycle. It’s ain’t your papa’s Chevy dude. The primary is over. Quinn ain’t Dillard. There’s no “Labor” candidate in this race. Even they were surprised to tap into frustrated state workers at that level. Don’t forget for a minute how fickle they (labor) were with money. They hedge. They might be more interested in making a new friend than shoring up an old enemy. They’re watching it close. Primary and General polling are different. Less opportunity for off the grid hijinks here. Rauner’s over 50 in a legit poll. That’s a strong foundation. He’s winning women over slowly. That’s how you do it.


  40. - Precinct Captain - Monday, Jul 14, 14 @ 10:34 am:

    ==- OVERSIGHT - Monday, Jul 14, 14 @ 10:28 am:==

    Take your racist WND conspiracies and jump off a cliff.


  41. - OneMan - Monday, Jul 14, 14 @ 10:36 am:

    OVERSIGHT

    Well besides everything Precinct Captain said, I will make this even easier.

    Considering most of Quinn’s support comes from the fact he isn’t Bruce Rauner, I highly doubt there are a whole lot of folks willing to commit multiple felonies for him.


  42. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jul 14, 14 @ 10:41 am:

    ===. The primary is over. Quinn ain’t Dillard. There’s no “Labor” candidate in this race. Even they were surprised to tap into frustrated state workers at that level. Don’t forget for a minute how fickle they (labor) were with money. They hedge.===

    There is no “Labor” candidate? Good luck with that, lol

    === You’re engaging in your own goofy self fulfilling prophecy. Women voters reacted both ways in the push polls. They’re often moved by issues more than candidates early on- they are the true independents.===

    So women don’t know what they want?

    No wonder Rauner is doing as poorly with women as it seems. Do their fragile minds not understand a Carhartt and watch?

    Maybe Rauner has a binder of women smart enough to pick a side, or “Slip and Sue” can use her magic to sway voters?

    ===. They might be more interested in making a new friend than shoring up an old enemy. They’re watching it close. Primary and General polling are different. Less opportunity for off the grid hijinks here.===

    Enter “Tom Hagen”, lol.

    Making friends on “weakness” or “fears” maybe?

    ===OW, you’re so wet it’s not even funny. Rauner has a ground game out there every day, especially on weekends.===

    lol, I heard that all primary, and Rauner got waxed on the Ground, had no clue where his pluses were, or how to get then out. It’s not happening on the ground, statewide, as an apparatus. It’s not.

    Lots of wishes, not much substance there.

    If you believe the 51%, you have to believe the negatives on the taxes too, or you just spinning all is good, and the rest is “baloney”?


  43. - A guy... - Monday, Jul 14, 14 @ 11:07 am:

    Way to be a condescending goof. Especially the woman part. You can’t have a serious conversation with self deluded nuts dude. Tom Hagen??? Find a new approach.


  44. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jul 14, 14 @ 11:15 am:

    ===Women voters reacted both ways in the push polls. They’re often moved by issues more than candidates early on- they are the true independents.===

    Ok, what do you base this statement on?

    Are you saying women are wishy-washy? Is there a binder to explain how you came up with that about women? Aren’t there women polled supporting Rauner too? So you saying the women supporting Rauner could very well flip too, or women supporting Rauner would never flip?

    Bruce’s political approach at friendship is Tom Hagen’s style of … people skills. Bruce even said it himself. Gotta own that. Rauner wants to know weaknesses, and fears, and if Labor wants a friend, that is the friend they would be getting.

    === You can’t have a serious conversation with self deluded nuts dude.===

    You’re way too hard on yourself. You should try to give yourself more credit, your talking points only get you do far, but self-deluted, that is a lil harsh.


  45. - A guy... - Monday, Jul 14, 14 @ 11:19 am:

    I hope I can recover from your “schooling” Miaggi.


  46. - Cheryl44 - Monday, Jul 14, 14 @ 11:19 am:

    I wish both of you would stop with the ‘wmones vote.’ Some of us vote one way and some of us another way. Just like men! Go figure!


  47. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jul 14, 14 @ 11:27 am:

    - Cheryl44 -,

    I hear ya. I was just confused with the polling results broken out by gender and - A Guy … -’s interpretation and assumptions.

    Maybe the ===There’s no “Labor” candidate in this race.=== would be more fun to discuss.


  48. - wordslinger - Monday, Jul 14, 14 @ 11:28 am:

    –The low information voter–

    Could we get a definition here? That phrase comes up a lot in certain circles. What are the distinguishing characteristics?

    Or is it just people who don’t agree with you?


  49. - Yipperdo - Monday, Jul 14, 14 @ 11:37 am:

    It is mid July and Rauner is going into the end of the summer with a high lead. There is no way that Quinn can out raise Rauner. Rauner can afford to counter almost immediately any negative ads that Quinn runs against him. Unions in this state have a history of waiting to the 11th hour to jump into a race. Unions can definetly help with Quinn’s ground game. I am just not sure however, that it will be enough. As I see it, unless something huge happens Quinn is toast.


  50. - Anonymous - Monday, Jul 14, 14 @ 11:45 am:

    One thing for sure, this will be quite a race. At this point, Illinois needs all the help it can get.


  51. - A guy... - Monday, Jul 14, 14 @ 12:02 pm:

    ===Cheryl44 - Monday, Jul 14, 14 @ 11:19 am:

    I wish both of you would stop with the ‘wmones vote.’ Some of us vote one way and some of us another way. Just like men! Go figure!====

    Actually Cheryl, statistics show women to be more thoughtful voters and they will research more closely before making a decision. That’s why the votes of your gender have made more difference more often. As a precinct captain, I can tell you, women ask more and better questions on doorsteps. It’s not a slam, it’s a compliment.


  52. - Arizona Bob - Monday, Jul 14, 14 @ 12:03 pm:

    I wonder if this point it’s worth the money for Rauner to “contribute” the amount of SSC and medicare he would’ve had to pay even though he didn’t have to. It could simply be a civic contribution to show his magnanimity.

    I’ve always wanted to ask those who want income tax rates to increase for everyone why they just don’t go ahead and pay the higher tax rate anyway, since they’re such strong believers that it’s needed.

    What they REALLY want is to control everyone elses money through tax expropriation, not contribute what they think the government needs.

    The biggest problem with these negative polls for Quinn may be that when the national Dem committees, unions, and big contributors are in campaign contribution “triage” in a month or two, they may decide to make their contributions elsewhere where there’s a better chance of winning.

    My guess is that the unions and outsiders will be here knocking on doors again and handing out literature for the Congressional campaigns, but those contested districts aren’t where Quinn needs turnout and turnaround.

    He better get Axelrod on the job to find him a way out of this mess.


  53. - Taxandspendfolly - Monday, Jul 14, 14 @ 12:03 pm:

    I don’t get the Rauner tax issue. Was he supposed to pay taxes he didn’t owe?


  54. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jul 14, 14 @ 12:08 pm:

    === As a precinct captain, I can tell you, women ask more and better questions on doorsteps.===

    “A dangerously high 66 percent of women said the tax issue made them less likely to vote for the candidate,…”

    You may not want to mention that tax issue when they ask questions, according to the polling here.


  55. - Holdingontomywallet - Monday, Jul 14, 14 @ 12:18 pm:

    So 39% of voters in Chicago said they were “more likely” to vote for Quinn BECAUSE of the federal investigation for misuse of government funds. Wow, just wow…


  56. - A guy... - Monday, Jul 14, 14 @ 1:09 pm:

    ==== Oswego Willy - Monday, Jul 14, 14 @ 12:08 pm:

    === As a precinct captain, I can tell you, women ask more and better questions on doorsteps.===

    “A dangerously high 66 percent of women said the tax issue made them less likely to vote for the candidate,…”

    You may not want to mention that tax issue when they ask questions, according to the polling here.===

    Not a single person has brought it up. Yep. Zero.


  57. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jul 14, 14 @ 1:11 pm:

    ===Not a single person has brought it up. Yep. Zero===

    That might change, lol, given this polling and I am sure message polling Quinn is doing.

    You know “message polling”, Bruce knows it really well.


  58. - walker - Monday, Jul 14, 14 @ 3:09 pm:

    Rauner is not the standard Republican candidate, either in message or tactics. His ground game will be different.

    Rauner’s best game is “anti-whatever goes on in Springfield,” therefore he has created and identified his “plusses” by the thousands, all listed by address on his Term Limits petitions. And he even will know, after reviews, which ones are properly registered to vote. He has his ground troops too, if he hires, pays and manages them in the same way as for that effort. We might have a new approach to “field”, in using a major state-wide petition drive as its primary creator and launch.

    Thought all along that was the function of the petition drive. Legally, it never had a chance.


  59. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jul 14, 14 @ 3:18 pm:

    - walker -,

    Great insight, well done.

    That is why I hammer and shake this idea, since just renting offices is not combing through, and getting paid troops to mine those lists to mature to “voting pluses”, and seeing his the Primary went, they didn’t do it, as a statewide apparatus then either.

    It would be an avenue I would peruse at the top levels down. The question is if your plan is even out there as a functioning apparatus. That is rhetorical, today.


  60. - history lesson - Monday, Jul 14, 14 @ 7:40 pm:

    Who was the last elected state wide office holder who ran for re election for the SAME office and was defeated for the said office in the general election?


  61. - wordslinger - Monday, Jul 14, 14 @ 7:45 pm:

    Percy comes to mind right off the bat.


  62. - Corey - Monday, Jul 14, 14 @ 8:10 pm:

    Carol Moseley-Braun


  63. - Skirmisher - Tuesday, Jul 15, 14 @ 9:49 am:

    Where does anyone get the idea state employees might rally for Quinn? Aside from the pension debacle, everyone I know in state government is outraged at what has happened to their agencies and the programs they administer (Which is generally the first loyalty), and a lot of them are upset by the surge in political “administrative assistants” who are eating up their reduced budgets and adding no value. Quinn doesn’t stand a prayer in Sangamon County.


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