* Sen. Mark Kirk appears in a new TV ad for Republican congressional candidate Bob Dold. Kirk represented much of this district when he was in Congress. Have a look…
* Meanwhile, Lynn Sweet obtained a polling memo from Democratic Congressman Brad Schneider’s campaign…
· In a rematch of their 2012 contest, Democratic Congressman Brad Schneider now leads former Republican Congressman Bob Dold by a solid 8-point margin, 48% to 40%, while 11% of likely voters remain undecided with less than four weeks to go until Election Day.
· At the top of the ticket, Democratic U.S. Senator Dick Durbin is leading Republican Jim Oberweis by 12 points, 52% to 40%, but Democratic Governor Pat Quinn trails Republican Bruce Rauner by 7 points, 40% to 47%.
· On a generic ballot citing no specific candidates, an unnamed Democrat for Congress leads an unnamed Republican by three points, 45% to 42%.
· Voters are more likely to view Schneider’s performance in Congress positively (5% excellent/37% good) than negatively (25% not so good/13% poor).
· Despite being the incumbent, Schneider (13% never heard) is actually less familiar to voters than Dold (3% never heard), providing the Democrat more room to grow.
As I’ve pointed out before, Gov. Quinn should be doing well in this district and he’s getting pounded by Rauner.
* And this is from the Schneider campaign…
U.S. Congressman Brad Schneider (IL-10) launched a new broadcast TV ad highlighting his Democratic priorities, including protecting a woman’s right to choose, preserving our environment and strengthening Medicare.
The new ad, “A Good Fit,” will be paired with the “On the Floor” TV ad currently running on broadcast that hammers Schneider’s opponent Bob Dold for his reliable Republican record, including his votes to defund Planned Parenthood and end the Medicare guarantee.
* The new ad…
* Script…
Husband: Let’s try this again.
Wife: OK
Husband: OK, Brad Schneider and the Democrats, protecting Lake Michigan
Wife: And our drinking water…
Husband: Retirement security…
Wife: Puts the middle class first and protects my right to choose.
Husband: Equal pay…
Wife: and marriage equality…
Husband: Definitely more our style
Wife: It’s a keeper.
Husband: It matches the couch.
Wife: It’s a perfect fit.
We’ve already discussed the companion ad, but it’s here if you want a refresher.
- Wordslinger - Wednesday, Oct 15, 14 @ 9:59 am:
Both great spots, but I think Dold is playing on Schneider’s side of the field.
The Dixie Loons in the House GOP caucus are an anvil around Dold’s neck. Why give them another vote?
- Bored Chairman - Wednesday, Oct 15, 14 @ 10:01 am:
Amazed Schneider keeps using the smug yuppie DINK couple in his ads.
- Ron Burgundy - Wednesday, Oct 15, 14 @ 10:04 am:
Not sure I’m buying anyone with an 8 point lead in that historically razor-thin margin district. And that couple is so awkward in that ad.
- Almost the Weekend - Wednesday, Oct 15, 14 @ 10:06 am:
One has to wonder if the Schneider campaign is taking a play from the Rodney Davis playbook. Leak an internal poll that has you up big and over the margin of error, so the NRCC decides to stop buying TV time in this race. Dold-Schnedier congressional race has to be the most expensive TV buy for Republicans in the country. By dropping Dold, they would be able to invest in two or maybe three other pickup opportunities. It would be a nice move by the Schneider campaign.
With Quinn’s number so low in this district, I just find it hard to believe Schneider was able to distinguish himself this much from Quinn, in less than years.
- Belle - Wednesday, Oct 15, 14 @ 10:07 am:
I don’t like these people. They’re too smirky.
I understand the point they are getting across but I still do not like the way that blue rug looks with the couch–it’s wretched.
- Gooner - Wednesday, Oct 15, 14 @ 10:08 am:
I really don’t understand why anybody thought this couple could be effective.
They seem like actors together. They are a married couple standing next to each other, but with no contact at all? They seem like platonic roommates.
Looking at this ad, I barely see any political message. All I see is “this couple is smug and a bit strange.”
One last note — I can’t imagine a worse end to this ad. We have those smug smiles, and then the smug candidate who is too busy to get off the phone.
If Schneider keeps running ads like this, he’s going to lose by 8.
- yester year - Wednesday, Oct 15, 14 @ 10:09 am:
Rich, this poll goes back to your insightfulness, these numbers for Quinn in that area is a concern.
His plan must be to destroy Rauner in Cook, because anything short of a old fashion butt beating he could fall short….
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, Oct 15, 14 @ 10:12 am:
=== As I’ve pointed out before, Gov. Quinn should be doing well in this district and he’s getting pounded by Rauner. ===
It’s Rauner’s home turf, isn’t it?
- Lunchbox - Wednesday, Oct 15, 14 @ 10:15 am:
Heh, Rauner is up by a decent margin in a Democratic district. Although I guess I shouldn’t be too surprised since Rauner is from Winnetka. Will Quinn win any counties outside of Cook this election?
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Oct 15, 14 @ 10:23 am:
===I really don’t understand why anybody thought this couple could be effective.===
Two years ago, best Ad of the season, the “paint” Ad.
The series is good, and it’s Schneider’s which is even better for him.
It’s a “North Shore Thing”, you may not speak North Shore, but this speaks to them.
===If Schneider keeps running ads like this, he’s going to lose by 8.===
Congressman…Congressman won with them before, so there’s that…lol
- so... - Wednesday, Oct 15, 14 @ 10:23 am:
Those ads are just infuriatingly smug.
- cal city crew - Wednesday, Oct 15, 14 @ 10:28 am:
Here’s why Brad could be up by 8.
If you look at 2010 Quinn results under the new map after redistricting, Quinn actually beat Brady 46.75% to 46.07% - and that was a rough year. Obviously, Brady isn’t Rauner (and vise versa) - but the 10th was drawn to be favorable to Democrats, enough so that Quinn beat Brady in a wave year. And this doesn’t feel like 2010.
Additionally, if 10th District voters are as independent and ticket-splitting as they claim to be - I don’t see why they wouldn’t be willing to rebuff Quinn and vote Schneider.
But wait - did I just make two conflicting arguments? They’ll split their tickets, but the district is lean Democrat…
- walker - Wednesday, Oct 15, 14 @ 10:28 am:
Still think it strange that Schneider is so obviously pushing being a committed Democrat (Beiden visiting next week for him?)– while Dold pushing his independence from the dominant GOP forces.
I’d have thought Dold’s political approach the better one in this district.
Maybe Schneider is just the better candidate regardless of labels?
- CircularFiringSquad - Wednesday, Oct 15, 14 @ 10:29 am:
CommandoMakeItUp D- but good to see him back in action. Have not seen praise from him for ChopperJim or Mitt. Guess he has been busy helping the Congress gain single digit approval ratings
- anon - Wednesday, Oct 15, 14 @ 10:29 am:
===Those ads are just infuriatingly smug.===
The northshore is so infuriatingly smug.
- Anonymous Retiree - Wednesday, Oct 15, 14 @ 10:30 am:
These are among the dumbest ads I have ever seen
- Whatever - Wednesday, Oct 15, 14 @ 10:30 am:
Kirk ad is interesting, but the new 10th isn’t anything like Kirk’s old 10th. As for Schneider, regardless of his ads, if a lackluster candidate like him can keep winning, it tells you something about redistricting.
- LincolnLounger - Wednesday, Oct 15, 14 @ 10:31 am:
Schneider may be up, but I’m not buying that margin.
- Mittuns - Wednesday, Oct 15, 14 @ 10:32 am:
Saw that ad last night while trying to stream the debate through CBS Chicago’s insufferable website. Thought it was painfully awkward. The Dold-Truck ad is better.
- Put the Fun in unfunded - Wednesday, Oct 15, 14 @ 10:33 am:
Rich, why should Quinn be doing well in the 10th? It may be a socially liberal district but is certainly not populist, and has a history of ticket splitting. The Democrats used to try to paint Mark Kirk as some kind of right winger too and it didn’t work. This year I still think Dold pulls this one off in a squeaker.
- walker - Wednesday, Oct 15, 14 @ 10:35 am:
Jeesh! How could I misspell Biden? He’s a family friend.
- Chicago Cynic - Wednesday, Oct 15, 14 @ 10:38 am:
Rich, I’ve said many times that this district is Quinn’s real problem. And yes, there are Rauner signs galore up there. But given Quinn’s surprising strength elsewhere in the state, I’m not sure Rauner winning it by 7 is enough to make a big difference.
- SammyG - Wednesday, Oct 15, 14 @ 11:02 am:
That stroke has really affected Mark Kirk. Really too bad.
- Belle - Wednesday, Oct 15, 14 @ 11:03 am:
The paint ad was good. The rugs don’t work for some reason. Some of it is the couple is way too smug. Sometimes you can take an ad further and sometimes you cannot.
- hisgirlfriday - Wednesday, Oct 15, 14 @ 11:06 am:
To the ad: they should have just ran the paint ad from last time.
- Leprechaun - Wednesday, Oct 15, 14 @ 11:22 am:
Chicago cynic- please enlighten us as to were is Quinn doing so well elsewhere in the state? I suggest you look at other congressional races in the state. Rich has commented on this a few times. But please I may be wrong so educate me.
- A guy... - Wednesday, Oct 15, 14 @ 11:26 am:
An 8 point lead? That’s enough on it’s own to tell you Brad isn’t truthful. No idea how these ads are playing up there in the district because I’m not there, but they sure look smug and condescending from where I’m viewing them. The 8 point lead is just goofy though.
- so... - Wednesday, Oct 15, 14 @ 11:27 am:
=====Those ads are just infuriatingly smug.===
The northshore is so infuriatingly smug.==
I’m FROM the North Shore, and I can’t stand how smug the couple is.
- William j Kelly - Wednesday, Oct 15, 14 @ 11:43 am:
Well it’s good to see sen Kirk is well enough to do commercials.
- P. - Wednesday, Oct 15, 14 @ 11:55 am:
Why are his campaign planks printed on a RUG?!
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Oct 15, 14 @ 12:01 pm:
===Why are his campaign planks printed on a RUG?!===
Too expensive to put on an end table, and have you tried to put words on a couch? Disaster.
- Stan - Wednesday, Oct 15, 14 @ 12:21 pm:
I don’t understand all the hate. I’m not from the North Shore but I still thought the ad was effective. The series has a positive way of being negative.
- overcooked - Wednesday, Oct 15, 14 @ 12:55 pm:
Do folks from the North Shore say, ‘hey, they are just like us”, or do they ask, “Is that what they think of us?”
- MikeMacD - Wednesday, Oct 15, 14 @ 2:18 pm:
Pointing out to potential voters that the Republican nominee will support the Republican agenda, and the Democratic nominee will support the Democratic agenda in Congress is just low down dirty politics.
- Precinct Captain - Wednesday, Oct 15, 14 @ 2:29 pm:
This DCCC ad has been on TV the last couple of days against Bob Dold. It’s in the style of a commercial for a pickup truck.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ZIbJdiL5Ew
- Gooner - Wednesday, Oct 15, 14 @ 2:31 pm:
That DCCC ad is very good.
- hisgirlfriday - Wednesday, Oct 15, 14 @ 6:44 pm:
Just got that DCCC anti-Dold ad ahead of the Blackhawks game tonight when I live in the middle of the Bustos and Davis districts. Way to waste money, guys.
- Conservative Veteran - Thursday, Oct 16, 14 @ 9:50 am:
The Schneider ad said that Dold wants to defund Planned Parenthood. When Dold was in Congress, he voted against a bill that would have defunded Planned Parenthood. Either Schneider lied, or he’s uninformed about Dold.
- Andrew - Thursday, Oct 16, 14 @ 11:23 am:
- Bored Chairman -
—Amazed Schneider keeps using the smug yuppie DINK couple in his ads.—
From my experience I think Schneider’s ads are spot on with the demographic he is trying to reach. Think of the people he is trying to bring out to the polls.