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Take Cohen seriously or suffer the consequences - And Halvorson fires manager

Thursday, Aug 19, 2010

* I talked to subscribers about this topic earlier in the week, but it’s why everybody should take Scott Lee Cohen a whole lot more seriously than they are, including pollsters, who haven’t put his name on the candidate list…

Part of Mr. Cohen’s strategy is to appeal to African-Americans, who generally vote overwhelmingly for Democrats.

“If he starts making inroads among blacks…that’s just a nightmare” for Gov. Quinn, said Kent Redfield, a political scientist at the University of Illinois, Springfield. […]

Paul Green, director of the Roosevelt University School of Policy Studies in Chicago, said Mr. Cohen was “an unguided political missile.” But with both major party candidates “running such weak campaigns, if he spends the money he could make a splash,” Mr. Green said.

During a recent campaign stop in Chicago, Mr. Cohen bought breakfast for 30 African-American ministers and told them Democrats had taken their support for granted. Mr. Cohen supports proposals to bring more Wal-Mart Stores Inc. outlets and manufacturing jobs to black neighborhoods. “Give me a chance,” he told the ministers.

Pastor Andre Smith of First Bethel Church said he was impressed. “I believe everybody should get a second chance,” he said.

Gov. Pat Quinn’s numbers with African-Americans are flat-out horrible. Yes, African-Americans always break late, but these numbers are pretty unprecedented. The Public Policy Polling survey had Quinn at just 41 percent among blacks, with 44 percent undecided. The Rasmussen poll’s crosstabs were even weirder

In the August edition of [the Illinois Chambers’] campaign-related newsletter, The Political Upside, the headline of an item about a recent Rasmussen poll was that the “crosstabs,” specific details about certain groups, “chew into Brady’s 13 point lead over Quinn.”

In the Rasmussen poll, the crosstabs illustrated a surprising amount of black support — 30 percent — for Brady, the newsletter states.

“Illinois Chamber sources believe that this particular demographic’s 30 percent level of support for an Illinois Republican is extraordinarily high and that in reality Brady’s lead hovers around the 5-6 percent range,” the newsletter said. The poll, which surveyed 750 likely voters Aug. 9, had Brady at 48 percent, Gov. Pat Quinn at 35 percent, with the rest for another candidate or undecided.

Rasmussen had Quinn getting 44 percent among blacks - very similar to the PPP poll. 8 percent were with “some other candidate” and 18 percent were undecided.

Despite the Chamber’s analysis, I don’t think this race is as close as they believe. Scott Lee Cohen is a big reason for that, as is, to a lesser extent, Rich Whitney. We’ll see.

By the way, Alexi Giannoulias’ numbers among African-American voters follow the more traditional lines. According to PPP, he’s getting 69 percent, with 22 percent undecided and 9 for Republican Mark Kirk.

* In other campaign news, Democrat Debbie Halvorson has fired her campaign manager

Halvorson (D-Crete) decided this week to replace Travis Worl, who had worked on Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s 2008 presidential campaign, in favor of someone else, spokesman Ryan Vanderbilt said. Halvorson has not yet hired a new campaign manager.

“Travis is no longer with our campaign,” Vanderbilt said. “He did a good job getting everything up and running to put us in a position to win going into November. But now, as we look forward to the election and Labor Day, a decision was made to bring in someone new.”

Halvorson, who is nearing the end of her first term in Congress, is facing Republican Adam Kinzinger in the Nov. 2 election.

Worl did not immediately return a call seeking comment.

Worl made news earlier this summer after questioning in an e-mail whether Kinzinger had exaggerated his role as a temporary U.S. Air Force Special Operations pilot. A member of the Wisconsin National Guard, Kinzinger has flown more than 100 special operations missions and Halvorson’s campaign focused on his use of “is” versus “was” on a Web site to describe his special forces status.

They fired the guy with no replacement in mind just before Labor Day? Man, there’s trouble in that camp.

* More campaign news…

* Schoenburg: Taxpayer-funded Schock mailing pushes envelope

* Schilling seeks debates with Hare

* Quinn comes out against mosque at Ground Zero

* Quinn doesn’t support mosque near ground zero

* SJ-R: Voters need budget details — and soon

- Posted by Rich Miller        

50 Comments
  1. - ILPundit - Thursday, Aug 19, 10 @ 10:50 am:

    Glad to see Quinn come out against the mosque, that should really put Illinois voters anxieties over the economy at ease. [/snark]


  2. - wordslinger - Thursday, Aug 19, 10 @ 10:55 am:

    Maybe the old Harold spot is sinking in. Remember the pounding Hynes took for that on the radio?


  3. - Rich Miller - Thursday, Aug 19, 10 @ 11:01 am:

    wordslinger, I’ve been kinda joking about that Harold spot, but I’m just not sure yet.


  4. - TJ - Thursday, Aug 19, 10 @ 11:03 am:

    Scott Lee Cohen has been doing alternative media since his campaign started off, i.e. public access TV, Ethnic Radio, College Radio, community and alternative newspapers and it looks like it is paying off. During the primary he came up with the job fairs that have been copied by candidates across the country. Regular people like his message.


  5. - Rahm's Parking Meter - Thursday, Aug 19, 10 @ 11:05 am:

    Rich,
    There is another area you forgot. Cohen also has a lot of Jewish backers as well, who backed Hynes and Hoffman and are disenfranchised this cycle with the Democratic Party. They are disappointed with Alexi’s lack of knowledge for their issues and are disappointed with Quinn as Governor, especially on cuts in Senior services, Social Services (hurting organizations such as Jewish Federations), and education. How he handled Cohen’s issues earlier this cycle, really allienated him as well with Jewish voters, who thought it was offensive. I work with this community on a professional basis. If Cohen can tap into this base financially as well as appeal to moderate voters on the left and right, it is a whole new ballgame.


  6. - Cincinnatus - Thursday, Aug 19, 10 @ 11:10 am:

    RE: Halvorson.

    WOW, Rich is certainly correct pointing out the problems in her campaign. Changing horses this far into the stream is very telling. Either this guy is a total goof, which I doubt from his pedigree, or he has major differences with the candidate.

    I would guess he was trying to walk Debbie back from some of her stated positions, and met resistance from her and/or staff. Perhaps Debbie is a proponent of the thought that Obama was not liberal enough during this Congress, and reinforces a belief that Illinois will vote deep blue no matter what.

    I’ve been saying all along, this cycle is different than most, even here in Illinois. I think its an, “It’s the economy, stupid” election, and Congressional Dems have a lot to answer for, especially ones like Debbie that marched lockstep with the Obama/Reid/Pelosi agenda. She was also among the loudest defenders of the Democrat agenda.


  7. - Logical Thinker - Thursday, Aug 19, 10 @ 11:17 am:

    Rich,

    You were the one who wasn’t taking SLC seriously. You’ve been the one writing many of the negative, snarky posts about him for the last few months. It’s interesting to see your tone change.

    I said several months ago that SLC could take 20% of the vote. I did not count on Whitney having as much support as he’s getting now. I absolutely think that these 2 will end up getting 25% of the vote, if not more, in November.

    I don’t think either can win. However, if the groundswell for either hits a tipping point and one gets to 20%+ in a poll (long-shot), it could make for a very interesting dynamic the likes of which we’ve never seen in this state.


  8. - cassandra - Thursday, Aug 19, 10 @ 11:17 am:

    Will voters tend to forget exactly why Cohen’s background was such a problem when discovered after he became the Dem lg candidate. And how much money can Democrats afford to spend reminding them, specially in light of the fact that they did elect him after all. Republicans may decide their best strategy is to say nothing
    and focus on Quinn.

    Unemployment filings were up to their highest point since November last week. Cohen did win in November with a strong jobs message. If we go into labor day with continuing bad employment news, and no clear or sure way out, Cohen could do well, especially among Dems who can’t bring themselves to vote for a Republican but want to send a strong message before the 2012 race that they are very angry.
    He can’t win of course. But it’s also a way to
    express anger at Pat Quinn’s rather less than
    stellar tenure so far without voting for the hated Repubs. If Brady is the beneficiary, well, they didn’t vote for him.


  9. - Rich Miller - Thursday, Aug 19, 10 @ 11:22 am:

    ===You were the one who wasn’t taking SLC seriously.===

    Wrong. I’ve been taking him seriously by following pretty much his every move and calling out reporters for not writing the full story about this guy.


  10. - Logical Thinker - Thursday, Aug 19, 10 @ 11:30 am:

    Are you taking the fact that he could get significant support seriously?

    You do a good job covering all the campaigns and the very minor details (almost to a fault). However, why should the reporters ONLY cover SLC to write the “full story” about him? Why that axe to grind?

    I’d love to see the media write the “full story” about the other major party candidates from both parties. Furthermore, the things we already “know” about all the candidates shouldn’t be taken for granted. I’m willing to bet that there are A LOT of skeletons in many closets that won’t get examined because of what we’re told we “already know.”


  11. - irisheyesrsmilin' - Thursday, Aug 19, 10 @ 11:30 am:

    Rich no need to stalk, come on down dear…


  12. - VanillaMan - Thursday, Aug 19, 10 @ 11:38 am:

    What I warned Debbie about two years ago was proven incorrect when the Stock Market meltdown occurred, and suddenly the last thing voters wanted was a businessman congressman. Fate gave her this win in 2008.

    What I was warning her about before she jumped into that race is being proven this year. The congressman she followed, Jerry Weller, wasn’t very good for a long time, but he got re-elected because this district leans Republican enough to keep electing a congressman as disinterested in his job and out of the country as much as Weller was. Jerry got tired of his job, and we knew it. Yet he kept winning. He would have lost in 2008, and Weller knew it, but he was ready for a life in Guatamala, not Joliet.

    Her district is more conservative than she. Debbie is a true blue liberal in a good way. Her actions in office don’t fit her district. The Pelosi Congress didn’t allow Debbie to move to the Center convincingly enough to offset her natural liberal image. Her votes trapped her into a corner when she needed to have taken her incumbency and move closer to her districts natural political leanings.

    Debbie really didn’t have much room for mistakes here. She is a great person, and I thought once the district got to know her, they’d love her even though they disagreed with her positions - a la Paul Simon. She hasn’t gotten that chance.

    She needs to completely remake her liberal image, but this would bite the hands that made her a congresswoman. She is pretty much out of time and money to do that. Kinzinger isn’t making mistakes and has two great benefits going for him - it is a Republican year, and he is running in a purple district.


  13. - Cheryl44 - Thursday, Aug 19, 10 @ 11:41 am:

    It’s not a mosque, and it’s not at Ground Zero. Try again, Pat.


  14. - Prognosis Negative - Thursday, Aug 19, 10 @ 12:02 pm:

    I saw three SLC yardsigns this morning in places that are usually taken up by Dems. This is in a predominantly African-American neighborhood.


  15. - Cincinnatus - Thursday, Aug 19, 10 @ 12:09 pm:

    Cheryl,

    You’re right, it’s not a mosque. A three or five story house of worship would probably not drawn the amount of attention as this 13 story, $100M monolith.


  16. - shore - Thursday, Aug 19, 10 @ 12:11 pm:

    If there was no blago trial, the media would be a lot more focused on the governors race and the senate race and in that coverage would be a big focus on brady’s conservatism which I think would be helping quinn’s base. It would remind his base of the alternative, something which really hasn’t been covered.

    the black vote discrepancy explains why alexi and kirk are deadlocked and brady has a lead. it was confusing to me that there were alexi/brady voters but in reality it seems like democrats responding they support alexi and not quinn.


  17. - Anonymous - Thursday, Aug 19, 10 @ 12:17 pm:

    Thanks Bernie for putting the hypocrisy meter on Schock’s $75,000, taxpayer funded, campaign mailing to his constituents.

    File: Republican, two faced weasel, hypocrite meter pegged in red zone. Schock should repay the taxpayers out his campaign funds. Another shocking Schockerism.


  18. - Northsider - Thursday, Aug 19, 10 @ 12:18 pm:

    Shore @ 12:11:

    I’d like to think your point about the news media being more focused on the gubernatorial and senate races, had there been no Blago trial, but sadly I think we both know better than that.

    I used to be a newspaper reporter, and it sickens me to see what has become of my former profession. With rare exceptions, the news media is distracted by any bright, shiny object. Proof of this is that Rich has to keep reminding them to take Cohen seriously.

    And when Cohen does better than anyone who isn’t a regular here, the news media will shake its collective head, chastise itself and vow to do better next ti-OOOOOH, look! A kitty!


  19. - shake and bake - Thursday, Aug 19, 10 @ 12:40 pm:

    Stick to rumor mongering Rich, politics just ain’t your bag. Fact is, Cohen will get less than 2% of the vote !


  20. - Pot calling kettle - Thursday, Aug 19, 10 @ 12:54 pm:

    Re. Halvorson…The guy should have been fired when that e-mail came out. Frankly, I’m always skeptical with respect to the campaign managers the candidates bring in. I don’t know where Mr. Worl is from, but when outsiders come into a district, they often make serious missteps because they don’t understand the voters and they don’t have time to learn. In 2008, Vanderbilt was did a great job, in part, because he had experience in the district. Maybe he’ll come back to finish the campaign. (That would be a smart move.)


  21. - votecounter - Thursday, Aug 19, 10 @ 1:02 pm:

    I hate to say it but the African American vote will be what it always is 89-93% Democrat. Quinn’s numbers are closer to Brady than the 13% or even the 7%. Brady has the very revved up base and the Indy’s to carry him that means the GOTV programs will be the clincher on both sides.


  22. - Anonymous - Thursday, Aug 19, 10 @ 1:28 pm:

    if rumor about art turner doing ads with quinn and actively campaigning watch the polls numbers change.


  23. - Wizard of Ozzie - Thursday, Aug 19, 10 @ 1:44 pm:

    Someone may want to check on Art Turner’s “popularity” in the African American community. Art is a terrific person and a great legislator, but he is a very bad campaigner. He only won 3 wards in Chicgago during the primary: Daley’s, Madigan’s and Burke’s. This idea that there is wide spread affection for Art Turner in the African American community is wrong.


  24. - Bill - Thursday, Aug 19, 10 @ 1:50 pm:

    ==politics just ain’t your bag==

    Now, That’s funny!!!


  25. - fed up - Thursday, Aug 19, 10 @ 1:50 pm:

    I get the feeling many Dems upset with Quinn wouldnt mind seeing him go down in flames and feel Brady wouldnt be hard to take out in 2014.


  26. - Anonymous - Thursday, Aug 19, 10 @ 1:51 pm:

    wizard didnt art carry chicago?


  27. - SpeedMeddle - Thursday, Aug 19, 10 @ 1:55 pm:

    Wow, Quinn just did the Whitney campaign a huge favor. In a year that the Democrats are terrified that their base won’t show up, why on Earth did Quinn think this was a good idea? I’m terrified of the thought of Governor Brady, but this might have pushed me to the Greens.


  28. - Anonymous - Thursday, Aug 19, 10 @ 1:56 pm:

    speed what are u talking about?


  29. - SpeedMeddle - Thursday, Aug 19, 10 @ 2:00 pm:

    Sorry, just realized that was totally off-topic from the other comments. From the Daily Herald link:

    “Quinn on Wednesday compared building the Muslim center to disrupting the peace at Auschwitz or Pearl Harbor, the sites of other tragedies. Quinn says there should be “a zone of solemnity” around ground zero.

    “He did not address how this squares with existing plans to rebuild offices on the site and conduct commercial activity there.”


  30. - RikiTavi - Thursday, Aug 19, 10 @ 2:06 pm:

    Re: Halvorson. Any more, the campaign manager is a glorified office manager, advance person, scheduler and candidate cheerleader anyway. The DC folks call most of the shots–the pollster and the media consultant determine message, design and shoot the footage for mail and media. Media buyer buys the time. Fundraiser and DCCC hound the candidate on fundraising. Spokesperson handles the press. Most importantly, the person called the campaign manager gets to be the fall person when all the magnificent strategies of the high paid DC types fall apart. When all else fails and you’re dropping in the polls fire the “campaign manager.” You can usually fill in the blank for the reason.


  31. - Anon - Thursday, Aug 19, 10 @ 2:13 pm:

    RE Halvorson, her campaign people have a way (as they did in 2008) of alienating everyone around them.


  32. - Cincinnatus - Thursday, Aug 19, 10 @ 2:20 pm:

    RikiTavi,

    That’s a good description of a WEAK campaign manager.

    A STRONG manager coordinates those disparate elements into a cohesive whole and keeps his candidate in the loop.


  33. - Cohen's problem - Thursday, Aug 19, 10 @ 2:31 pm:

    baptists dont vote for folks that dont share their belief in JC.


  34. - Tom Joad - Thursday, Aug 19, 10 @ 2:36 pm:

    Re Halvorson’s race: Each of the local counties in her district have well organized campaign structures for unified campaigns for all their candidates. The unions also have get out the vote operations that are finely tuned. An in state manager would help coordinate her campaign with what will be happening more than an out of state person sent in by Pelosi.


  35. - RikiTavi - Thursday, Aug 19, 10 @ 2:45 pm:

    Maybe, Cinci. Or, it’s the sign of weak-willed (as opposed to weak on paper) candidates who cave in to every whim of the “professionals” in DC. If a campaign manager is overridden all the time in favor of the DC folks, then the campaign becomes directionless as this one seems to have done. Might as well have the campaign manager knocking on doors from 7 a. to 8 p. They would probably do more good–and get in less trouble.


  36. - Responsa - Thursday, Aug 19, 10 @ 2:51 pm:

    In retrospect, would Dems have been better off keeping SLC as the “duly elected” Lt. Gov. candidate where they could keep an eye on him and the narrative–while continuing to work to get rid of the IL LG position entirely? Seems like they have lost a fair amount of control and probably some votes now that Cohen is running for Governor. Anybody wishing for a do-over?


  37. - Sweet Jane - Thursday, Aug 19, 10 @ 2:57 pm:

    @Cincinnatus -

    “A three or five story house of worship would probably not drawn the amount of attention as this 13 story, $100M monolith.”

    Have you been to lower Manhattan lately? A 13 story building is hardly monolithic in that area.


  38. - Responsa - Thursday, Aug 19, 10 @ 3:11 pm:

    I usually don’t find myself sticking up for Quinn when he speaks. But it seems to me that with such heavy hitters as Howard Dean and Harry Reid coming out to say that they think the mosque/community sports facility/Muslim cultural outreach center should be built in a different NYC location it gives PQ a fair amount of cover for the position he has taken.


  39. - Anon - Thursday, Aug 19, 10 @ 3:24 pm:

    Halvorson’s campaign staff if full of pushy, know-it-all youngsters who have a knack for bleeding everyone and everything around them dry. Their efforts are generally counterproductive. I know one county-wide candidate that wants nothing to do with them.


  40. - VanillaMan - Thursday, Aug 19, 10 @ 3:36 pm:

    Curse at the masses all you desire, those seen favoring Muslims over the vicitms of 9/11 are going to be hurt at the polls. So Quinn has to deal with this. Too bad. Giannoulais has to deal with this. Too bad.

    It isn’t their fault they have to wade into this quagmire.


  41. - Cincinnatus - Thursday, Aug 19, 10 @ 3:39 pm:

    - Anon - Thursday, Aug 19, 10 @ 3:24 pm:

    “Halvorson’s campaign staff if full of pushy, know-it-all youngsters who have a knack for bleeding everyone and everything around them dry. Their efforts are generally counterproductive. I know one county-wide candidate that wants nothing to do with them.”

    What an interesting comment. Sounds like Debbie has lost control of her staff. But don’t disparage the youths, at least in general. I have worked with both young and old campaign staff. The best ones are the old ones that think young, and the young ones that think old. The problem I think your highlighting are the young’uns that don’t appreciate the wisdom (and some of the tried and true local politicking) and are relying too heavily on the tech aspects.


  42. - Pot calling kettle - Thursday, Aug 19, 10 @ 5:01 pm:

    ==Halvorson’s campaign staff if full of pushy, know-it-all youngsters who have a knack for bleeding everyone and everything around them dry.==

    Unfortunately, it’s not just Halvorson’s campaign. It happens when DC sends people in and even when Springfield sends people in. These imports come in assuming that whatever worked on the last campaign will work on the next one. The “kids” who figure out that this is not the case, will win a campaign and then get promoted to a permanent staff position on the government side.

    A lot of candidates need to spend a little more time developing local campaign staff or at least staff with a better understanding of the local voter base. The very successful legislators know this, the rest remain beholden to their DC (or Springfield) bosses.


  43. - some former legislative intern - Thursday, Aug 19, 10 @ 5:14 pm:

    Cincinnatus: there is no such thing as the “Democrat agenda”. There is a Democratic agenda, which has been to try and put people back to work after Bush failed miserably and the GOP sat and offered no proposals of their own, but no Democrat agenda. Sorry.


  44. - 47th Ward - Thursday, Aug 19, 10 @ 6:30 pm:

    VM, first, who is cursing at the masses? Second, why do you think voters are stupid?

    About 70% of those surveyed are opposed to building the Cordoba House, or whatever it is being called now (Park 51?). An almost equal number say, despite their own personal opposition, those wishing to build it have every right to do so.

    Why do you assume the masses aren’t smart enough to reconcile the nuance in this issue? Kind of elitist of you, isn’t it?


  45. - 47th Ward - Thursday, Aug 19, 10 @ 6:34 pm:

    Sorry, I should have included this:

    http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2010/08/islamic_cultural_centre_sorta_near_ground_zero

    My point still stands, but the 70% opposed estimate is too high according to this survey.


  46. - Upstate - Thursday, Aug 19, 10 @ 6:47 pm:

    Quinn has reached a new low. He will do or say anything to win this election. And because of that, he’s going to lose it.


  47. - Obamarama - Thursday, Aug 19, 10 @ 7:11 pm:

    I think too many are thinking about SLC the candidate and not SLC the person. Since about last summer SLC has avoided, umm… shakeups in his personal life.

    Given the laundry list:
    “masseuse” girlfriend
    knife to throat
    head into wall
    lawsuits upon lawsuits
    steroids
    allegedly forcing himself on his own wife

    What in the world makes any of you think that this guy isn’t long overdue for another personal debacle? You really want to roll the dice that he can go another 75 days without another personal embarrassment? With all the stress and hardship of a self-financed statewide campaign?

    EVEN if he does, he has already spent $2.7M of his own dough and he isn’t exactly Ron Gidwitz. The consultants will bank a little more dough and SLC will get to feel like anyone in the world could give to licks about him for a few more months. There is your net result.

    No way he pulls more votes than Whitney.


  48. - frustrated with press - Thursday, Aug 19, 10 @ 7:35 pm:

    Wizard of Ozzie:
    There most certainly is affection for Art Turner in the black community and Qunn made a huge mistake by not taking him as Lt. Governor. That is definitely high on the list of ambivalent to negative feelings about Quinn that are failing to energize the black base and sending the AA vote elsewhere.

    If you are talking about Hendon and his ilk not liking Art Turner, well, that’s Hendon.


  49. - Wumpus - Thursday, Aug 19, 10 @ 11:16 pm:

    Cohen = Burris 2002? Maybe Brady will reward him with a senate seat for helping him win the election


  50. - Anon - Sunday, Aug 22, 10 @ 8:53 pm:

    Can Scott Cohen even spell Illinois? Have you seen his huge boat? Who said he invented job fairs? Was that a planted comment? Maybe his ex wife should go into divorce court to see where he gets all of his endless money.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


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