Stu Rothenberg opines in Roll Call about whether it’s time for a political comeback by the Illinois Republicans (subscription only). Rothenberg looked at the prospects for a comeback by the out of power parties in three big states, Ohio, New Jersey and Illinois.

Of the three big states, Illinois looks like the least likely to turn around anytime soon.

The state GOP is in shambles, though newly elected state party Chairman Andy McKenna brings some much-needed respectability. Still, he isn’t likely to save it any more than a Band-Aid is likely to cure pneumonia.

The state party is deeply divided along ideological grounds, with outspoken conservatives apparently preferring the election of Democrats to moderate Republicans. […]

Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D) has taken criticism recently for alleged ethical lapses, and Illinois’ financial position is not good. Further problems could weaken the governor, giving the Republicans a shot at the top office. But right now, the governor is favored for re-election.

That looks about right for now, but if Governor Blagojevich can’t get a handle on these ethical problems, then a strong Republican candidate would have a good shot.