36-21-15-9
Monday, Mar 13, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller
The Tribune runs its last poll of the season.
Among the Democrats, Blagojevich has the support of 67 percent of voters who were polled compared with 18 percent for challenger Edwin Eisendrath, a former Chicago alderman. Another 14 percent are undecided, and 2 percent say they would vote for someone else. Since February’s poll, Blagojevich’s standing gained 5 percentage points while Eisendrath’s remained the same. […]
The poll found 36 percent of voters — who are likely to cast a Republican ballot supporting — Topinka. Oberweis was favored by 21 percent while 15 percent backed Bill Brady, a state senator from Bloomington. Another 9 percent voted for Chicago businessman Ron Gidwitz, 1 percent for Internet journalist Andy Martin and 18 percent were still undecided. […]
Separately, a different poll of 475 registered Cook County voters likely to vote in the Democratic primary has John Stroger, a 12-year incumbent, with a 10 percentage-point lead over challenger Forrest Claypool in a contest for the Democratic nomination for Cook County Board President. The poll, which has an error margin of 5 percentage points, shows Stroger with 47 percent. Tony Peraica, the GOP candidate for board president, is unchallenged.
Check out those Gidwitz numbers. I’ll have more on that in tomorrow’s Capitol Fax.
UPDATE: Comments are now closed on this post. See above for poll stories.
- In the Land of Silos and Cows - Monday, Mar 13, 06 @ 9:38 pm:
If the undecided percentage (let’s say … 18) is double your percentage (let’s say … 9) and you spent over $7 million, and there is 7 days left before election day … only one thing can be true … Those are great consultants, they get you to pay them and spend all that money to them and ads, and all that campaign stuff, and all the while, you probably could have been down 2 to 1 to “undecided” by spending only $700K on newspapaper ads.
If you are going to run statewide, and you are considering hiring these guys, they have milked 2 other candidates for their millions with their great tactics and advice, so maybe they will give you a “cut-rate pummeling”.
- Old Elephant - Monday, Mar 13, 06 @ 10:02 pm:
It’s risky, but still interesting to compare the Tribune and Post-Dispatch numbers.
The amazingly consistent numbers for Topinka would indicate that her base is solid and not likely to change much. The wide variations in the other candidates’ numbers probably indicates just how fluid the race for No. 2 is.
Nothing here that changes the analysis from the Post-Dispatch poll: Gidwitz and Brady are in a race for second place and each has a lot of incentive to try to edge out Oberweis. By coming in second, they beat expectations and position themselves for future campaigns.
- political hack - Monday, Mar 13, 06 @ 10:10 pm:
your nuts. Gidwtiw is toast. The race for second is Brady/Oberwise. Anyone who can read a poll and knows politics will tell you watch Brady. If oberwise was out, he’d win. Now, it looks like second. No one knows Gidwitz is the alternative liberal in the race. Everyone knows Brady and Oberwise are the conservatives. They split, Judy wins. Oberwise has outspent Brady 4-1 and Brady will beat him. Makes the hack laugh.
- Bubs - Monday, Mar 13, 06 @ 10:13 pm:
Good news for Tony Peraica!
- Rick - Monday, Mar 13, 06 @ 10:14 pm:
These results are good for Judy, showing that she’s weathered the slime cast by Oberweis’/Gidwitz.
If the Post-Dispatch poll is trustedworthy, this means the negative ads backfired on them.
- Realist - Monday, Mar 13, 06 @ 10:22 pm:
Looks like the suspense is over. It’s gonna be Blago vs. Topinka. Most of us figured that all along, but this poll all but confirms it.
- Bubs - Monday, Mar 13, 06 @ 10:30 pm:
Hack, I agree. Oberweis has his usual 22% or so and no more; Gidwitz running has kept JBT under 40% (to date, that is, she will go over 40 on Election Day); and Brady may very well get the break on the undecideds and snatch second.
I don’t know about Brady winning if Obie had pulled out. Brady hasn’t received much scrutiny for his stance on Creationism (oooooops, make that “Intelligent Design”) as a science topic in the schools. He’s Catholic, but even the Vatican won’t call it “science,” fer cryin’ out loud.
- Youth Gone Mild - Monday, Mar 13, 06 @ 10:34 pm:
The Stroger Numbers are suprising to be honest with you
But I guess Claypool, if these numbers come true, just couldn’t get traction
- Thom Yorke - Monday, Mar 13, 06 @ 10:44 pm:
I don’t buy the Brady numbers for one minute. Nor do I buy that he has a chance of finishing ahead of Gidwitz. I’d put money down that election day looks a lot more like the Post Dispatch numbers as opposed to this poll.
- Bubs - Monday, Mar 13, 06 @ 10:52 pm:
The decline may be very real for Ron Gidwitz.
I’ve heard of tracking polls that show him tanking in the last ten days, some going as low as 7%.
Debate performances plus negative ads, I suspect. But who really knows.
- Anon - Monday, Mar 13, 06 @ 10:53 pm:
ISU REP I would say that those race’s were lost more because of George Ryan not the conservatives. The G. Ryan corruption and party leadership was the problem. That’s why Brady will win we want a new generation to lead.
- ISU REP - Monday, Mar 13, 06 @ 10:57 pm:
Anon- i dont consider someone whose social values are extremely conservative and alienate most of the voting public to be the new generation. I’m in my 20’s I’m the face of the new generation and most of us don’t put social issues at the top of our priority list. I think its all too easy to blame Ryan and he’s just a scape goat…If social conservative values were the key then why did Keyes get destroyed so badly?
- FrustratedRepublican - Monday, Mar 13, 06 @ 11:06 pm:
ISU
You make the mistake of assuming all socially conservative candidates will run in the general on socially conservative issues. The general, no matter who wins it, will be about fixing the state’s finances and reigning in corruption. If it’s not conservative positions, it will be ties to George Ryan, but Blago’s attacks won’t help him in the fall. Brady’s not ashamed of his values, but he’s running to put the state’s fiscal house back in order and end pay-to-play politics. Those are winning issues on which the Governor hasn’t a leg to stand on. Contrary to popular opinion, I think a conservative CAN win, but not just any conservative. I think Brady might be one that can.
All in all, these numbers aren’t good for either Oberweis or Gidwitz. It’ll be interesting to see more details about the regional breakdowns and weighting.
- Anon - Monday, Mar 13, 06 @ 11:10 pm:
I put Tax and spend issues on top also. But the socail issues are important also and many of them drive the expensive programs draining revenue from our economy.
You seem to go from one extreme to another. Keyes is one extreme but it does not mean Brady is the same as he is.
You also don’t understand the demographics of the state. If your saying that most people in this state are moderate.
Election are won for allot of different reasons. Money, issues, poor media polls, issues beyond the candidates control on and on. It may not have anything to do with Ideology. It may not mean a state is liberal or conservative if Brady wins this year it’s a little more conservative with a Moderate General Assembly.
- ISU REP - Monday, Mar 13, 06 @ 11:26 pm:
I love people who say I must not understand because I don’t agree…Guess will all see on the 21st who doesn’t understand….
- Bubs - Monday, Mar 13, 06 @ 11:28 pm:
Conservatives win general elections with strong, charismatic candidates, not conservative issues.
People who carp about Illinois as “turning Blue” or “not Red” or want us all to think only about “Red” or “Blue” are simply out of touch. The old labels are out of date.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Mar 13, 06 @ 11:32 pm:
===You also don’t understand the demographics of the state. If your saying that most people in this state are moderate.===
I think you need to back that one up before you proceed any further. I’m not saying you’re wrong, I’d just like to see your evidence of this.
- ISU REP - Monday, Mar 13, 06 @ 11:43 pm:
I was merely arguing the moderate vote is important, if anything Illinois leans left…From now on ill start citing academic literature Rich
I just ask everyone else do the same! 
- Bubs - Monday, Mar 13, 06 @ 11:45 pm:
Rich, don’t ask Conservatives for evidence of that kind - it annoys them.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Mar 13, 06 @ 11:46 pm:
I wasn’t talking about you, ISU REP, I was talking about Anon 11:10
- ISU REP - Monday, Mar 13, 06 @ 11:51 pm:
Ok Rich, thanks I was kind of confused!
- Schiznitz - Monday, Mar 13, 06 @ 11:56 pm:
Stop the presses!! Its going to be Topinka against Blagojevich? Holy Grasp on the obvious Batman. Is the sun still going to rise tomorrow? Is the pope still catholic?
No wonder no one cares about this race. It was decided about 6 months ago.
- Six Degrees of Separation - Tuesday, Mar 14, 06 @ 12:01 am:
Has anyone figured out what Giddy has spent in the primary vs. his projected actual vote total? I don’t think it’s quite in Blair Hull territory yet for $ per vote(which I think was in the neighborhood of $200 PER VOTE), but it’s a far cry from Proxmire territory.
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Mar 14, 06 @ 12:03 am:
This poll is a giant slam by the Tribune against itself. Once they endorsed Giddy, he tanked.
- Jimmy P. - Tuesday, Mar 14, 06 @ 1:01 am:
Is there anything to the rumor that refuses to die, that Oberweis will reach an accommodation with Gidwitz and receive his endorsement, thereby making the race a dead heat, or within the margin of error? After his horrible performance at the Channel 7 debate I thought Gidwitz looked like a beaten man?
- Six Degrees of Separation - Tuesday, Mar 14, 06 @ 1:02 am:
A blast from the past, relevant to Giddy’s campaign today:
After spending more than $29 million of his own money, Hull, a former securities trader, finished third, garnering about 10 percent of the vote. In the end, he spent somewhere around $260 per vote.
David Mendell
The Chicago Tribune
March 17, 2004
- Six Degrees of Separation - Tuesday, Mar 14, 06 @ 1:07 am:
Jimmy P. -
Giddy cannot assign any vote for Oberweis except his own. If he drops out, his somewhat small band of supporters will scatter, with many likely going to JBT or Brady as well as the Milk Dud.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Mar 14, 06 @ 1:21 am:
I’d also point out that Gidwitz is currently running a TV ad that claims Oberweis can’t defeat Blagojevich.