15 Comments - Carl Nyberg - Monday, Mar 13, 06 @ 1:22 pm: On New Year’s I predicted Eisendrath would get at least 34% of the vote. I’m gonna go with 35+/-1% for E squared. Claypool is going to get 55%. - In the Land of Silos and Cows - Monday, Mar 13, 06 @ 2:01 pm: EE = the “number” is 31% …but bet the under. the other race of interest: Dem’s Treasurer Mangieri = the “number” is 44% … but vote the over, but not the win. - In the Land of Silos and Cows - Monday, Mar 13, 06 @ 2:01 pm: EE = the “number” is 31% …but bet the under. the other race of interest: Dem’s Treasurer Mangieri = the “number” is 44% … but bet the over, but not the win. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, Mar 13, 06 @ 2:02 pm: The 10-day weather forecast predicts cloudy skies and a low of 38 in the Chicago area, while downstate Illinois has a 60% of showers throughout the day. Expect a huge GOTV effort in African American wards for Stroger to benefit Blagojevich. Downstate, I doubt many Democrats will go to the polls just to vote against Blagojevich. I put the over/under at 29%, and I’ll take under. - A-non - Monday, Mar 13, 06 @ 2:09 pm: O/U is 28% - and I’ll take under. - Realist - Monday, Mar 13, 06 @ 3:01 pm: I’m going to go with 37%. I know that seems a little high given the Post-Dispatch poll. But as far as I can tell, the poll didn’t include independents in the Democratic horse race sample. If Jack Roeser could get 34% (I think that was the number–does anyone know for sure?) against Edgar at the height of his popularity, EE should be able to get 37%, despite the fact that he has waged a laughably bad campaign. I do expect a strong ABB vote. The Trib poll (coming out tomorrow Rich?) could change my mind though. As far as picking the over or under, I’m not sure it makes any sense to make your best guess of the 50-50 point and then pick one. In theory it should be 50-50. But since we’re doing round numbers, I’ll pick the over. (I guess my more exact over/under would be 37.5). - Tom DeLay's Mom - Monday, Mar 13, 06 @ 3:16 pm: I’m going to place the Over/Under at 34.5% and will take the “over” (barely)…the disaffected suburban Cook Dem voters showing-up to punish Stroger will likely take a whack at Blagojevich for good measure. That, coupled with what ought to be lackluster downstate turnout, is why I think YDD is giving a bit too much credit to Blagojevich on E-Day performance…although I generally agree with YDD’s rationale - I think the handicap is still too low on this race. Dems know Blajojevich is going to win the Primary - nearly 4 in 10 Dem voters aren’t giving Rod good approval rating marks - so, knowing that he’ll win - I bet more folks will be inclined to use their anti-Blago vote as a gentle wake-up call to the Governor… EE has done nothing to earn these protest votes - but he’ll certainly get his fair share. - Mr. Anon - Monday, Mar 13, 06 @ 3:41 pm: I doubt Esquared does better than Keyes #. Wow would that a person feel bad. Mangieri gets 55% maybe more unless Broadway Bank starts handing out home equity lines of credit w/o applications or credit checks ( wait they already do that). Perhaps Alexander’s bank will just vote all the out of state loan customers in the “early voting” program. - Out on a limb - Monday, Mar 13, 06 @ 4:26 pm: I’m going a bit above the group and picking 40%. I’ll go with the over on this (though barely). There will be a high reform vote out for county board president and those won’t be G-rod voters. There doesn’t seem to be any active ground game for the guv, so maybe the more intense, angry voters will be out in force to cast eisendrath ballots. - Mandy - Monday, Mar 13, 06 @ 5:12 pm: I think a better question is, “What percentage would EE get if he didn’t spend any money and simply had his name on the ballot next to Blago? 20%? 25%? 30%? Less? More? - Southern Illinois Democrat - Monday, Mar 13, 06 @ 5:41 pm: I will take a guess and say 38% and go with over. I still think downstate will vote against Blago, not for EE, in bigger numbers than most people think. - Skeeter - Monday, Mar 13, 06 @ 6:12 pm: I am going to go with 28%. I am going with under. It is too bad because I would have liked to have seen a strong challenger. EE has not shown that he can run a strong campaign, and as a result, he has not given the regulars and confidence that he would defeat a Republican in November. A lot of people would prefer to have somebody else at the top of the ticket, but we also know that Blago is better than any of the Republicans (except possibly Gidwitz, and Gidwitz will never win). - perplexed - Monday, Mar 13, 06 @ 8:46 pm: I’ve seen WAY more Eisendrath signs than Blagojevich signs on NW side, N Side, and N suburbs. Even in Belmont-Cragin, 10-1 EE to Blago. Signs don’t vote, but I think that a lot of Dems who would vote for Rod in a close primary will vote for EE just to send a message. 36% for EE, taking the over. - Realist - Monday, Mar 13, 06 @ 10:19 pm: Okay, I’ve seen the Trib. poll results (is that cheating?). With those results in mind, I’ll drop my over/under number all the way down to 28 and take the under. It’s kind of unbelievable that EE hasn’t gained a point since the last Trib. poll given the hate crime panel controversy and his new ad campaign. Guess it’s not a good strategy to run funny ads when people sort of think your whole candidacy is joke. - Anon - Tuesday, Mar 14, 06 @ 1:12 pm: I still give EE 34%, taking the over. To Realist, We politicos complain about the negative campaigning but when someone shows creativity and steps out of the box we complain about that too. Do we want change or not? With the airwaves being crowded with all the negative ads and hatchet jobs, EE’s chainsaws were a nice change of pace. New ideas in commercials = new ideas in government. Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.