Question of the day
Monday, Mar 20, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller
Here are some primary day forecasts from Weather Underground:
· Chicago: 20 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy. Highs in the mid 30s. North winds 10 to 20 mph.
· Springfield: 90 percent chance of snow. Snow in the morning…then a chance of light snow in the afternoon. Snow accumulation of 2 to 3 inches. Total snow accumulation 5 to 8 inches. Highs in the lower 30s. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph becoming north 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 mph.
· Carbondale: Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of light snow. Highs in the upper 30s. North winds 10 to 20 mph.
· Bloomington: Snow in the morning…then a chance of light snow in the afternoon. Snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches. Total snow accumulation 4 to 6 inches. Highs in the lower 30s. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts to around 30 mph. Chance of snow 90 percent.
Do you think any of this will have an impact on tomorrow’s primary? Why or why not?
UPDATE: ABC7 has a story about this topic.
Voter turnout Tuesday in Illinois could break an all-time record, a record low. That is because an Election Day snowstorm is headed straight for central Illinois.
A non-presidential primary election usually attracts about a third of all of the registered voters in Illinois. Election experts say a central Illinois snowstorm could reduce Tuesday’s statewide turnout to less than 25 percent which would be the lowest in many decades.
The turnout forecast for Chicago and the collar counties is good, no rain or snow but windy and chilly. City turnout expected in the 38 percent range.
but watch out downstate, from Peoria to south of Kankakee. A winter storm warning through most of election day with up to an 8 inch snowfall.
it is even worse for mid-section of the state. There is a blizzard warning from the time the polls open at 6 a.m. almost until they close at 7, up to nine inches of snow.
not much better for the Champaign-Danville-Charleston area. Winter storm warning there for Election Day, 5 to 9 inches of snow before the precincts close.
State Senator Bill Brady’s hopes to become the GOP candidate for governor could take the biggest hit from a downstate snowstorm. Brady’s most devoted base of support ripples out from his native Bloomington, which is right in the middle of Tuesday’s forecasted snowstorm. Brady said Monday he is not worried about the weather, that his supporters are committed.
Even though downstate accounts for only 20 percent of the Republican primary vote, GOP frontrunner Judy Barr Topinka deployed former governor Jim Edgar to the hinterlands of Illinois Monday, trying to convince people to turnout for her, regardless of the weather.
- Anon - Monday, Mar 20, 06 @ 5:13 am:
Bad weather usually effects the least committed so a drop in turnout will result. One type of voter that is not effected though is the anti-vote. The aginers will turnout no matter what but the marginals may not.
- DOWNSTATE - Monday, Mar 20, 06 @ 6:17 am:
RICH DON’T MEAN TO CHANGE THE SUBJECT BUT AFTER READING SEVERAL DIFFEREMT ARTICLES AND AN AFSME STUDY IT LOOKS LIKE THIS GOVERNOR IS GOING TO ABOLISH THE IDNR AND MOST OF ILLINOIS’S OUTDOOR PLACES.A LOT OF BEAUTIFUL PLACES WILL BE GONE IF THE PEOPLE ALLOW THIS.Oh Obie he has me to tired of his stupidity to comment.
- Anon - Monday, Mar 20, 06 @ 6:23 am:
I say after tomorrow it will be:
BE GONE A VICH….
- bored now - Monday, Mar 20, 06 @ 6:32 am:
traditionally, bad weather is only a factor when high turnout is expected. it seems like even in the most competitive races, turnout will be low, i would think lower than 2002. i just don’t think that you will see the kind of turnout where weather will be a significant factor.
regardless, weather does favor those with a ground game. does anyone downstate have a ground game that will allow them to exploit bad weather?
- Someone You Should Know - Monday, Mar 20, 06 @ 6:39 am:
I am not on any candidate’s payroll, and I guess I am your typical suburban republican male.
Why on earth would I vote again for the Milkman? I voted for him in 2002, not in 2004 (voted for Rauschenberger) and in 2006, I will proudly cast my vote for Brady.
Oberweis is correct about Topinka, but that does not mean he is correct about himself.
He is a man gone sour.
- Bill Baar - Monday, Mar 20, 06 @ 6:50 am:
Low turnout but weather not a factor. It won’t hold back the committed and people concerned on bond issues. Those issues are probably the most important things on peoples minds right now.
- Reddbyrd - Monday, Mar 20, 06 @ 6:51 am:
The weather should not be a factor. Consider the forecast in a place like Iraq if ther election were held tomorrow:
“Chance of car bommbers 60%, strong likely hood of a suicide bomber headed for your polling place.”
Makes one wonder if some of us deserve the right to vote.
- bored now - Monday, Mar 20, 06 @ 7:20 am:
in iraq, cars are banned from being driven on election day, and cannot be parked anywhere near a polling place. i know, i know, you were being silly…
- Anonymous - Monday, Mar 20, 06 @ 7:24 am:
Rich, the weather report I see shows blagorgeously sunny skies, like the future of the great state of Illin……..
Wait just a doggone minute. This thing was printed by the State of Illinois, on State of Illinois paper, created on State of Illinois computers and paid for by State of Illinois taxpayers. I guess when you have billions and billions of borrowed dollars that you do not need to reimburse, every day is a sunny day.
- Marta Elena - Monday, Mar 20, 06 @ 7:32 am:
I think the weather may damper get out the vote efforts. Candidates get your army of volunteers with vehicles ready!
- the Patriot - Monday, Mar 20, 06 @ 7:43 am:
It could be trouble for Topinka. As noted above, those least committed stay home. Her clear position is to stay out of the headlines and squeak by on name recognition, not with a grass roots organiztion of strong supporters who believe in her cause. This means if those she was counting on for name recognition only don’t vote, a candidate who has people actually supporting them because of their views could sneak up. The forcast needs to be turned upside down for it to affect the outcome. Unless the forcast gets flipped and it snows in Chicago, it may tighten the race but not change the outcome.
- Anonymous - Monday, Mar 20, 06 @ 7:55 am:
I predict a short, cold and dreary future for Gene Moore.
- Cassandra - Monday, Mar 20, 06 @ 8:19 am:
There must be some statistical data somewhere showing correlations between weather and voter turnout, if any correlations exist outside of those presumably existing when the weather is dangerously bad–probably rare events.
Intuitively, I would guess that the Chicago Machine Dems who support Blago and Stroger would come out no matter what the weather because their jobs and/or jobs of family members…in other words, their livelihood…depend on keeping Blago and Stroger in place. Chicago and some other parts of Cook are heavily populated with county and state patronage employees who are supporters and relatives of Blago and Stroger. That’s certainly a reason for Machine voters to get out the door no matter what the weather.
I agree that JBT could be hurt by a low turnout, although some appear to believe that women will
come out to vote for her in larger than usual numbers. I hope that is the case, but my overall impression is that her campagin has lacked energy…perhaps it’s a deliberate strategy, but if she wins it needs to change fast because Blago, whatever his faults, projects a lot of energy.
- ISU REP - Monday, Mar 20, 06 @ 8:24 am:
I think this is more likely to hurt Brady, BNL has trouble clearing snow when we get three inches let alone close to 7-8-9. That’s usually the ONE thing Chicago can do right! As far as JBT support being affected I would think a majority would be coming from areas that will not be affected by snowfall!
- Richkid - Monday, Mar 20, 06 @ 8:36 am:
I believe it will affect some of the less publicized races, (treasurer, water district). However, for the big races it shouldn’t affect anything.
- Darrell Democrat - Monday, Mar 20, 06 @ 8:49 am:
“Oh Lord…please send a blizzard to hit only Central Illinois to punish Brady and Bloomington-Gomorrah for not taking my draw-a-straw offer. And, by the way, please make it cold so my ice cream trucks can run without their freezers. Gotta save bucks for my next campaign.”
Vote for EE!
- Wile Coyote - Monday, Mar 20, 06 @ 8:55 am:
You forgot to mention Madison/St/. Clair county areas (Metro East). We are expecting 2-4 inches.
- Randall Sherman - Monday, Mar 20, 06 @ 9:10 am:
Bad weather downstate might afftect Brady’s totals. It may allow Oberweis to finish second in the Republican Gubernatorial Primary, which means he can delude himself into believing he still has a political future.
Here in Cook County, the weather should have minimal effect on most races.
- Schiznitz - Monday, Mar 20, 06 @ 9:20 am:
Dead people don’t care about the weather.
- VanillaMan - Monday, Mar 20, 06 @ 9:21 am:
Little to no effect. But it gives folks something to talk about.
- BigMac - Monday, Mar 20, 06 @ 9:26 am:
No love for the QCA?
- the Patriot - Monday, Mar 20, 06 @ 9:32 am:
Prediction: The weather will shift north, causing the luke warm liberals in chicago to go home right after work, rather then to the polls. Judy’s failure to even attempt to build a grass roots organizion downstate costs her the bid, Brady by a nose, less then 500 votes. (Downstate republicans, last chance to save the party from 12 more years of tyranny, vote Brady or give judy the hammer for the last nail in the party coffin.
- ISU REP - Monday, Mar 20, 06 @ 9:40 am:
Ah Patriot your always good for a laugh…have no fear come Wednesday I will be happy to mail you a JBT sign after she wins the primary by at least 12% percent
- illrino - Monday, Mar 20, 06 @ 10:43 am:
Brady is running a downstate-dominated campaign. Hasn’t worked the suburbs too much, figuring the three suburban candidates had the edge there. So, yeah, a downstate snowstorm holds down Brady’s vote. That’s the last thing he wants to see tomorrow.
- Woe is us - Monday, Mar 20, 06 @ 10:56 am:
The weather will probably be more of a factor than this:
HDO lawmakers suddenly declare ‘independence’
March 19, 2006
BY MARK BROWN SUN-TIMES COLUMNIST
Not that long ago, state legislators Tony Munoz, Eddie Acevedo and Martin Sandoval were Exhibit A for the growing influence of the Hispanic Democratic Organization, proud beneficiaries of its Machine-style, jobs-for-votes politics. Then came the Hired Truck scandal, and its offshoot, the City Hall patronage hiring investigation, both of which have prominently featured HDO.
Now those three legislators are running for re-election Tuesday and, wouldn’t you know it, you don’t hear much from any of them about HDO.
Instead, all three are campaigning on the theme of being an “independent voice” in their Southwest Side communities, the word “independent” featured so prominently in all their campaign literature that you’d swear it was produced in a secret echo chamber located somewhere beneath Pilsen and Little Village.
“As a two-term state senator, Tony Munoz has proven to be an independent voice for our neighborhoods,” proclaims one mailer.
“For 10 years, Edward Acevedo has been an independent voice fighting for our schools,” states another.
“A proven independent voice fighting for all of us,” tout Sandoval’s ads.
Thanks, guys. I needed a good chuckle.
Controlled vote
I realize the word “independent” doesn’t mean what it once did in Chicago politics, when the Democratic universe was divided between Regulars and Independents, at the time a handy shorthand for “bad guys” and “good guys.” Which was which depended on your political orientation.
But just because there are no longer many recognizable Independents in Chicago politics doesn’t mean we’re ready to go all Alice in Wonderland about the concept of political independence.
If Munoz, Acevedo and Sandoval were truly “independent voices” instead of HDO-backed loyalists of Mayor Daley, then they wouldn’t be where they are today.
In fact, it’s their very lack of independence that makes them favorites for re-election in their respective contests this week against Oscar Torres, Francisco Rodriguez and Eduardo “Eddie” Garza.
Munoz and Acevedo, in particular, are banking on the controlled vote from the 11th Ward Democratic Organization, political base of the Daley family and home base for the trucking companies that milked the Hired Truck program.
Munoz, an HDO co-founder, was a major beneficiary of Hired Truck campaign donations as well as the political mentor of convicted Hired Truck coordinator Angelo Torres and is known to be under investigation himself. But the Daleys aren’t backing off him in his time of need.
“We can count on him to be an independent voice fighting for children,” states the beaming photo of Cook County Commissioner John Daley, the mayor’s brother and 11th Ward Democratic committeeman, in a Munoz mailer that blends these mixed messages without so much as a wink.
Right under his nose
At least there’s no mention of independence in another Munoz campaign piece bearing an endorsement from the mayor himself that quotes hizzoner thusly: “With many years of dedicated service, State Senator Tony Munoz has delivered for all of us. Now it’s our turn to deliver our vote for him.”
Interesting choice of words — delivered for all of us.
In Sandoval’s case, he is not just “a proven independent voice,” we’re told, but also an “independent voice fighting waste and corruption in government.” I guess he just missed it when it was right under his nose at those HDO fund-raisers.
Sandoval, the only one of the three to take my call, said his independence is shown by the fact he came up through the federal bureaucracy and was never involved in local politics before Daley recruited him to run for public office.
‘The jury is in’
Although he doesn’t want to be seen as cut from the same cloth as his colleagues, Sandoval couldn’t bring himself to give me a straight answer about what HDO did for him in his 2002 campaign or how all three legislators might have independently arrived at the strategy of being “independent voices” this year.
Acevedo’s campaign sent me a statement saying his independent claim is based on his “standing up against the special interests.” I’m sure he stands up against all the special interests except for the ones with which he goes along.
My favorite campaign mailer, though, is a Sandoval piece that boldly proclaimed on the cover: “The jury is in.”
That one must have sent shivers through all his HDO friends who are still waiting with the rest of us for the indictments to come down.
- ron - Monday, Mar 20, 06 @ 12:08 pm:
brady and oberwies hurt by snowstorm in central illinois. will keep the turnout down. more conservative voters in this area.
not much impact on the demcratic side.
- Papa Legba - Monday, Mar 20, 06 @ 12:57 pm:
As the first poster said weather won’t keep the “anti” vote away from the polling places. I am a good example. Last primary for gov in Illinois it was much decided before election day, so I stayed home and replaced my toilet (seriously, I did). This primary, a shower of molten rock couldn’t deter me from getting out to exercise my vote. I don’t believe it will make much of a difference. They do plow snow in major downstate cities don’t they? Anyway the word should be out to vote early before the snow gets too messy.
- Mad Cou - Monday, Mar 20, 06 @ 1:00 pm:
I agree with Illrino and Ron. Bad weather affects rural, conservative-leaning areas the most. With much of west-central Illinois (and Bloomington) hit with snow and strong winds, Brady stands to lose the most. Not sure how this affects Oberweis–I don’t see how anyone could support him in the first place, but I assume that most of those who do live in the ‘Burbs.
- Right Wing Republican - Monday, Mar 20, 06 @ 1:23 pm:
Brady’s “Southern Strategy” takes a huge hit with a snowstormin Central Il. I’m sticking with the “sign from God” theory.
- Central IL Stater - Monday, Mar 20, 06 @ 1:30 pm:
“regardless, weather does favor those with a ground game. does anyone downstate have a ground game that will allow them to exploit bad weather?”
That is an interesting question. I’m sure people will be sending out people who can take people to the polls. We’ll see.
- Central IL Stater - Monday, Mar 20, 06 @ 2:16 pm:
“Brady’s “Southern Strategy†takes a huge hit with a snowstormin Central Il. I’m sticking with the “sign from God†theory.”
Or it could be that God’s gonna show His power to the rest of the candidates when he wins in spite of a snowstorm. Maybe that ’sign’ will mean that no matter what may be thrown at him, he will raise to the top!
Go Illinois vote for Bill Brady!
- Phil Connors - Monday, Mar 20, 06 @ 2:32 pm:
All this moisture coming up out of the south will probably push on east of us. At high altitudes it will crystallize and give us what we call snow.
Probably will be some accumulation…but here in Punxsutawney our high will be about 30 today, teens tonight. Chance of precipitation about 80 percent today and tomorrow.
Did you want to talk about the weather or were you just making chitchat?
- NIEVA - Monday, Mar 20, 06 @ 2:38 pm:
In the south when we get lousy weather for election day it usually keeps the elderly at home. When this happens it effects the incumbents the most.Folks wanting to vote against a candiate will get out one way or the other. Judy will will the gov. race by a landslide. Blogo will do the same . Then I am afraid he will win in the fall. All we can hope for is to die in our sleep.
- Tony @ The Apartment - Monday, Mar 20, 06 @ 2:57 pm:
I still say the crappy, snowy weather will affect downstate vote totals for the righty GOP guv candidates, and the results will favor Topinka and the Chicago suburbanite GOP’ers.
But I’ll probably be wrong…
- Realist - Monday, Mar 20, 06 @ 3:20 pm:
The snow does the most good for Topinka and the most harm to Brady. On the Democratic side, it might hurt Blagojevich slightly. Contrary to the beliefs of most of the posters on this site, the polls indicate Blago is actually slightly stronger downstate, simply because EE has less name recognition down there. In any case it won’t matter. Maybe Blago gets 66% instead of 70%. Who cares.
- anon - Monday, Mar 20, 06 @ 3:54 pm:
The biggest impact of the weather will be when Brady begins to draw close in the polls and Andy Shaw and Dick Kay’s news choppers are grounded so they’ll be racing each other down I-55 in a blizzard trying to get to the Brady HQ at the Normal Holiday Inn Express. Both news vans end up in ditch somewhere near Kankakee. Badly injured in the crash, the broadcasters are rescued by Lura Lynn and George Ryan who will profess to be Dick and Andy’s “No. 1 fans” and do a Kathy Bates ala “Misery” number on their legs to make sure they can never get away.
Dick and Andy live out the rest of their lives in George’s back bedroom, doing personalized news casts for the Ryans in which George is always acquitted and goes on to win the Nobel Peace Prize before being named the first ambassador to Cuba.
- Jaded - Monday, Mar 20, 06 @ 4:20 pm:
I think it might spell certain doom for Mangieri. He might have been able to pull a Blago and win big enough downstate to squeak this thing out, but if a blizzard like snow storm hits central Illinois turnout will definitely be affected. This is not Iraq (thank God) and nobody is going to risk their life to vote in a primary election. Anyone hoping for a big downstate push is in big trouble.
- Anonymous - Monday, Mar 20, 06 @ 4:24 pm:
I predict rep Mike Boland getting the cold shoulder from Madigan who told him to play nice with Jacobs
- HeKnowsBarack - Monday, Mar 20, 06 @ 4:26 pm:
There are growing reports that Alexander plans flaming saganaki plates all over the state to lure voters to the polls
Too bad it will be too little too late
- LittleEgypt - Monday, Mar 20, 06 @ 6:43 pm:
I’m a precinct judge and on a good primary election day, we will run just under 20% voter turnout. I would expect 10% or less tomorrow as our precinct is comprised of an aging population. Cold weather won’t keep them from the polls but a blizzard sure will.
- YNM - Monday, Mar 20, 06 @ 6:48 pm:
I can’t imagine it’ll snow around here … there’s way too much hot air circulating this blog …
- todd - Monday, Mar 20, 06 @ 8:39 pm:
The weather forcast for Brady is not good, The forcast for Oberweis is better.
- NI80 - Monday, Mar 20, 06 @ 9:25 pm:
I absolutely think that weather will be a huge factor. If the turnout was set to be a record low in the first place, its unlikely those who were slightly interested in voting tomorrow will trudge out in the snowy weather. I think the only person the weather is going to help is Oberweis and his crazy, devoted minions…sadly, he does have a fairly solid base and they will get out tomorrow regardless of the weather.
- Team Sleep - Monday, Mar 20, 06 @ 11:17 pm:
Oberweis’ biggest support system is in Southern Illinois. His supporters will vote come hell or highwater. 9″ of snow just means they will have to drive an extra hour round trip as long as they can for for their exalted milkman. Then, of course, when he loses they will stay home in November. Makes sense to me…
- Team Sleep - Monday, Mar 20, 06 @ 11:24 pm:
However, I wonder if Oberweis and Mother Nature drew straws. He might have been thinking, “Man, if she draws the short one, Brady’s people are going to stay home. This is wonderful.” And then bam: a blizzard on the first day of spring.
- Tony Soprano - Monday, Mar 20, 06 @ 11:30 pm:
does mother nature only get to draw 1 straw?
- crabbyoldguy - Tuesday, Mar 21, 06 @ 3:20 am:
So stop complaining about the cold, crappy weather holding down turnout and do something about it: move primaries from March to May; move general elections from November to September.
- LindyScottSupporter - Tuesday, Mar 21, 06 @ 4:25 am:
This will probably increase Cegelis’s chances of winning. All the Duckworth(less) supporters, if there are any, will stay home. Besides, there is nothing to support there anyway.