Close race
Friday, Mar 31, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller
JBT has been up and down and back up again in the Rasmussen poll.
Fresh from primary victories, neither the Democratic nominee nor the Republican nominee enjoys a clear advantage in the race for Governor of Illinois.
The latest Rasmussen Reports election poll shows Republican State Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka leading Democratic Governor Rod R. Blagojevich 43% to 41%. That toss-up represents an apparent tightening of the race. In our late February poll, Blagojevich bested Topinka 42% to 36%. For him, that was an improvement over the January survey, when Topinka led 48% to 37%.
The rolling average of our last three polls confirms the close nature of the race and shows Topinka with a knife-edge 42% to 40% lead. Though the poll numbers seem to gyrate when looked at individually, it’s the challenger’s support that has varied most. The governor’s has ranged much more narrowly, between 37% to 42%—low and not too auspicious for an incumbent.
Both nominees have weathered charges of corruption from within their own parties en route to their nominations. Neither has solidified support within their own party at this time.
Blagojevich is viewed favorably by 44% of likely voters and unfavorably by 53%, with only 2% Not Sure how to view him. Topinka is viewed favorably by 50%, unfavorably by 44%.
Blagojevich wins approval for his job performance as governor from only 39% of Illinois voters. Fifty-nine percent (59%) disapprove.
Though 45% of Illinois voters believe abortion is morally wrong, just 34% favor a ban on abortion except when the life of the mother is at risk; 55% oppose it. (Such a ban is now being vetted in South Dakota, where it is expected to encounter judicial challenges.)
Sixty-five percent (65%) think most politicians would change their vote for the right contribution. Fifty-three percent (53%) guesstimate that the cost of influencing a governor or senator is $50,000 or less; 7% believe all that’s needed is $1,000.
- Lovie's Leather - Friday, Mar 31, 06 @ 3:15 pm:
Blago is ripe for the pickin’. The question is, can Judy pick ‘im? I sure hope so. With all of Blago’s money, it makes me wonder if he is at the point where his numbers can’t grow any higher without Topinka being a total lunatic. I think the gov has maxed out. I further think Topinka would have a difficult time with an independent that was very socially conservative. These people NEED to step aside and do what is best for the state of Illinois. Drop out and even endorse Blago, it won’t matter. The point is, a two-way race would definately ensure Topinka a victory, however narrow of a margin it may be.
- scoot - Friday, Mar 31, 06 @ 3:19 pm:
59% disagree…I don’t see that number dropping much from now until November. Fresh off the primary victory JBT has to like these numbers. GO JUDY GO!!!!
- Cook Dem - Friday, Mar 31, 06 @ 3:24 pm:
Yeah, up and down and then up again because this is friggin rasmussen.
Survey usa is more reliable in this readers humble opinion.
They had serious outlier problems with bush approval earlier this year and continue to “get it right” by running a multiple polls as often as possible (and close to elections) then cherry picking the best results.
Close race for sure, but I’ll wait for some other numbers.
- bored now - Friday, Mar 31, 06 @ 3:24 pm:
i’m one of those people that has never liked rasmussen’s methodology (use of automated dailers). still unproven; be interesting to see what more traditional pollsters come up with…
- Political Hack - Friday, Mar 31, 06 @ 3:25 pm:
Rod better stable his base and do it soon. If Judy starts to peal a few blacks off, he is in trouble. She did it with Rush in the Dart race. My advice to the Blago campaign (and if you are taking advice from a blog, you should be shot), is to shore up the base and do it before Memorial Day.
- gojbt - Friday, Mar 31, 06 @ 3:27 pm:
We can only have wishful thinking that JBT has a chance - I sure hope she does. Anyone but Blago.
- VanillaMan - Friday, Mar 31, 06 @ 4:02 pm:
The polls are spot on. Last month’s Judy bashing effected her numbers last month, and this month’s primary win gave her the boost for this poll. But as with all polls, this is only a snapshot of yesterday’s situation, with seven months to go.
Considering the rough month she has had, even with her win, Topinka looks surprisingly strong for so early in the race. Oberweis and the radical GOP elements still haven’t openly supported the Treasurer’s candidacy, so I was expecting a Rasmussen that puts her below Blagojevich at this point. But that’s not the case, is it?
Blagojevich’s numbers are troubling. He had no competition. He has been hitting the TV, promising free lunches and eternal life. Except for that nasty Nation of Islam problem, he spent the primary playing “governor”, and hiding out. It worked! He should be looking unbeatable - not behind!
What’s happening? Voters are still not buying the sales pitches with Cheshire cat smiles? He has good ads; as he holds those kids in front of him like hostages, his message is quite clear: Vote for me, or these kids will DIE from NO HEALTH CARE!
Still these poll numbers are not showing that he has found the right campaign promise yet. I’m sure we’ll hear even more plans to put our money where his mouth is this summer and autumn in the continued quest to find enough suckers to charm a win in November.
- Boone Logan Square - Friday, Mar 31, 06 @ 4:11 pm:
Brace yourselves for a slew of negative ads by RB (plus many more proposed bills that push her to the right of the state on healthcare, guns, education) to get JBT’s approval ratings below 40%. Voters don’t trust Rod, but he will do all he can to get her numbers below his. And he can do a lot.
This will rile up the Obie/Brady supporters, but Judy needs to shift left to keep from being marginalized by the onslaught to come…and make sure no one defects from her base. If the Republicans do not rally around her for the general election regardless of her positions, she will get swamped. Even with RB’s poor numbers.
- ron - Friday, Mar 31, 06 @ 4:12 pm:
cook dem - rasmussen poll was the most accurate poll in the last presidential election and most accurate for the governor, senate and house races it tracked. believe the numbers or not, an incumbant governor in a democratic lean state with only low 40% support has trouble.
- Wildcat - Friday, Mar 31, 06 @ 4:39 pm:
While I can’t speak to the accuracy of Rasmussen polls, Ron has a good point. Whether you want to argue over methodology or a few points here or there, an incumbent Dem should not have disapproval numbers that high in a state that has had such strong turnout for the Dems the last few years. While it’s far too early to say who is going to win, it’s at least interesting (for now). But as I like to remind my friends who ask me who I think is going to win, Ross Perot was leading the polls as late as June in 1992. Lotta game left.
- taxs man - Friday, Mar 31, 06 @ 5:06 pm:
heres how feel iam glad this state is only taking 3 percent of my pay. under J B T we will be paying as high as 5 percent. dont kid yourself that will be one of the first thing she does if she wins. I pray she doest win. GO ROD GO
- Anonymous - Friday, Mar 31, 06 @ 5:12 pm:
Oh, Rod will raise taxes to. He said he wouldn’t before and he did. He will again if voters will re-elect him. Check out what the Democratic governors did in Virginia and New Jersey.
- HoosierDaddy - Friday, Mar 31, 06 @ 6:36 pm:
To buy a vote,
“7% believe all that’s needed is $1,000.00″
….and Homer believes all that is needed is a donut! Doh!
- Pete Granata - Friday, Mar 31, 06 @ 9:36 pm:
Boone Logan Square is dead on. JBT has to appeal to ethnic Democrats and keep Bush and Cheney OUT of Illinois.
- Rich Miller - Sunday, Apr 2, 06 @ 10:49 pm:
Deleted Anon, I think we got the point the first 50 times you posted that link.