New poll - Updated x7
Tuesday, Sep 5, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller
[Bumped up from Saturday and updated]
We’ll open comments Comments are now open on this on Tuesday.
A multi-million-dollar television advertising blitz hasn’t bought Gov. Rod Blagojevich a single percentage point of increased popularity in recent months, according to a new poll that shows his support among Illinoisans stuck below 50 percent going into his fall re-election race.
But the Democrat continues to lead Republican opponent Judy Baar Topinka, 47-39 percent, according to the latest Research 2000 poll for The Southern Illinoisan and the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. His immense TV campaign — estimated at between $6 million and $10 million since March — apparently has helped drive Topinka’s “unfavorable†rating up by almost 10 points since the spring primary. […]
When independent voters are factored in, just 22 percent of all poll respondents said the scandal makes them less likely to vote for Blagojevich, while 71 percent said it would not affect their vote. […]
The poll found that all three incumbent statewide Democrats running for re-election — Attorney General Lisa Madigan, Secretary of State Jesse White and Comptroller Daniel Hynes — are far ahead of their Republican challengers. In the one statewide seat currently held by the Republicans — state treasurer, the office Topinka is vacat-ing to run for governor — Democratic candidate Alexi Giannoulias holds a modest lead over the Republican hopeful Christine Radogno.
The Illinois Green Party’s Rich Whitney, by the way, came in at 2 percent.
UPDATE: The complete poll is here.
UPDATE 2: Well, maybe those aren’t the “complete” results. From the Saturday Daily Chronicle:
Who is more popular, George bush or George Ryan? Day 2 of the poll resutls will be posted Sunday evening.
UPDATE 3: Click here for a graphic version of the poll results which is much easier to read, but doesn’t have the crosstabs. [gif file]
UPDATE 4: George Ryan unpopular, but still above Bush
UPDATE 5: Issue results for questions on national things like the war in Iraq are here.
UPDATE 6: My weekly newspaper column wasn’t based on this poll, but on downstate legislative polling in individual districts.
As President George W. Bush’s job approval ratings continue to slump, Republican incumbents almost everywhere are running away from him as fast as they can. It’s gotten so bad that even U.S. Rep. Tom Reynolds, the chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, doesn’t have the word “Republican” on his campaign website’s front page.
Next door in Missouri, Democrat Claire McCaskill has hammered incumbent GOP Sen. Jim Talent for being a “George Bush Republican.” In response, Talent has tried to play up his bipartisanship and even, in an undoubtedly desperate move, boasted about how he was working with liberal California Sen. Dianne Feinstein. The “George Bush Republican” attack is being thrown at frightened congressional Republicans all over the country as the usually hapless national Democrats attempt to exploit the biggest opening they’ve had in years.
Almost exactly the same attack will be used here in Illinois, except it will be the state legislative Republicans employing the tactic to smear their opponents as “Rod Blagojevich Democrats.
UPDATE 7: From a press release:
State Senator Christine Radogno, the Republican nominee for Illinois treasurer, commenting on the release of a newspaper poll on the treasurer’s race, said her opponent’s support is deteriorating as voters find out more about the candidates.
At the end of July Giannoulias claimed an 11 point lead. The Post-Dispatch poll released over Labor Day weekend showed Giannoulias clinging to a seven point lead. The poll has a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.
“The new numbers show significant erosion of his support,†said Radogno. “He is slipping in the polls. His support among statewide voters is disintegrating as they find out more about the ethical problems surrounding Mr. Giannoulias.â€
Radogno also said as voters pay more attention to the Treasurers race, they find out more about both candidates. “Once voters become aware that Mr. Giannoulias has loaned tens of millions of dollars to convicted felons with reputed ties to organized crime and he himself is the defendant in a fraud lawsuit where a senior citizen was allegedly swindled, they are turning away from his candidacy†Radogno said.
Radogno also said voters are comparing the qualifications of both candidates. “When voters look at the records they see that I have an unblemished 10-year record of public service in the Senate working on state budgets. They see a history of experience in state and local government,†said Radogno. “And then they see that the sum total of Mr. Giannoulias’ work experience is less than four years working for his family’s bank. He has no experience whatsoever in government at any level.â€
Radogno concluded, “We are very happy that voters are making distinctions between the two of us in this race.â€
- Bill Baar - Tuesday, Sep 5, 06 @ 7:37 am:
…to smear their opponents as “Rod Blagojevich Democrats.
Weird thing about this tactic is you’d be hard pressed to find a Democrat in Illinois who would call themselves a Rod Blagojevich Democrat.
- Old Elephant - Tuesday, Sep 5, 06 @ 8:43 am:
The first thing that jumped out from this poll is that Topinka has recaptured her base. She is now slightly stronger among Repubicans than Blagojevich is among Democrats.
For months, the conventional wisdom has said that Topinka would have a post-primary problem with conservatives in the party. Obviously, that’s not the case, or at least not in any significant way.
With both candidates holding 80-plus percent of their base, the battle is on for the independents, which makes this look more and more like a traditional race in Illinois.
- jechislo - Tuesday, Sep 5, 06 @ 9:01 am:
Hot Rod is still not above 50% proving that he is very, very vulnerable. An article in today’s Springfield State Journal-Register mentions the latest poll and adds “Topinka has yet to debut a campaign ad”. She really hasn’t started to go after Blagojevich yet because of her limited funds and yet she is still very much in this race. Like Yogi Berra said, “It ain’t over till it’s over”. Rod can be beat; it’s definitely going to be an uphill battle, but he can be beat.
- Reddbyrd - Tuesday, Sep 5, 06 @ 9:04 am:
1. The story forgets to mention the massive media teardown on GRod so the poll numbers have to be viewed as another homerun!
2. GOPs(as in MOPEs) ought to remember that tool of Chicago noose has not worked since the mid 70s. In fact downstaters tend to react more to images of GOPs throwing money at wealthy suburb projects. Hope TC & the Sockpuppets are ready for that one.
3. With Congressional Republicans sinking fast is it is any Illinois Republicans tried to sneak Speaker Hastert into a central Illinois event last week?
- jechislo - Tuesday, Sep 5, 06 @ 9:29 am:
Reddbyrd - Please have another cup of coffee and re-read your last post. I’ve read it 5 times and I’m still having trouble understanding what “With Congressional Republicans sinking fast is it is any Illinois Republicans tried to sneak Speaker Hastert into a central Illinois event last week?” means.
- just watching - Tuesday, Sep 5, 06 @ 9:40 am:
Ever leave your own little world there redbyrd? You should come back down to earth with the rest of us, the weather is nice this time of year.
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Sep 5, 06 @ 10:05 am:
This is interesting:
88% of REPUBLICANS rated Blago’s job performance as Excellent, Good or Fair (mostly Fair). Only 8% said the lowest - Poor.
That really destroys the group-think out there among political junkies that Blago is so hated. In the real world, it’s just not the case.
Hard to see how Topinka ever recovers. As she keeps saying wacky things (and she will), she’ll keep going down, down, down. A majority will never see her as fit for the job.
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Sep 5, 06 @ 10:11 am:
Why is Radogno smearing Giannoulias over alleged “ethical” problems when she is claiming to be much more experienced. If she thought her positives were so wonderful, why would she be going so negative agaisnt him? Not that it matters, she will be spent into the ground in October…
- jechislo - Tuesday, Sep 5, 06 @ 10:16 am:
To Anonymous 10:05 am.
Well, Rod should be ahead by more than 30 points if 88% of us Republicans like him so much, right? Dream on. This race is still very much up in the air. Judy can win this. She may not be the strongest candidate but Rod’s negatives are piling up every day making Judy a much more viable alternative. Again, it ain’t over till it’s over.
- B Hicks - Tuesday, Sep 5, 06 @ 10:20 am:
Looks like the Judy lovers are a little testy today. You should have went with a better candidate.
My advice: No breath holding.
- Southern Ilinois Democrat - Tuesday, Sep 5, 06 @ 10:23 am:
I attended a parade on Labor Day in a south central Illinois town. Of course, the politicians and their supporters were out in full force. What I found interesting was that people don’t have much good to say about either candidate for governor. But, the Republicans I spoke to said that they do not like JBT and see her as a female version of Rod. So, they plan to vote for Rod because, as they put it, “at least we know what he will do”. Just some info from downstate. Take it or leave it.
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Sep 5, 06 @ 10:27 am:
jechislo, are you looking at a different poll?
It’s pretty obvious it’s Topinka whose negatives are piling up ever day.
And note that women are ahead of the curve and are the most embarrassed by Topinka. She gets only 35% among women.
Topinka’s only going to get wackier as this thing heats up. Note that now she’s calling Blago a “yahoo.” In the primary she was calling her male opponents “morons.”
This person can’t be Governor.
- B Hicks - Tuesday, Sep 5, 06 @ 10:32 am:
SID, you’re going to get called a few names for that one:
Liar, hack, Blagojevich campaign worker, Elvis lover. Don’t take it to heart; they’re a confused bunch. They’re just mad because they got saddled with Shrek for a candidate.
- Southern Ilinois Democrat - Tuesday, Sep 5, 06 @ 10:37 am:
B Hicks
I know. But, just wanted to say what I heard. Oh well, I got broad shoulders so I can take a few hits.
- DOWNSTATE - Tuesday, Sep 5, 06 @ 10:49 am:
10 to 12 million in negitive ads.Billion dollar give aways in taxpayer dollars and he is only at 8% per cent. This guy has problems and all the blogging on how he is Jesus isn’t going to do any good.He should be at 18 to 24%.So all you expert Blago people on him answer,with some resemblence of common sense, why not.
- just watching - Tuesday, Sep 5, 06 @ 10:50 am:
Rod has spent anywhere from $6 to $8 million getting JBT approval rating down to 46% meanwhile JBT has spent zip, nadda, nothing to get g-rod’s favorables down to 46% he has done that all on his own. This thing aint over people.
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Sep 5, 06 @ 10:56 am:
Actually it is pretty much over.
- Its All In What You Hear - Tuesday, Sep 5, 06 @ 11:00 am:
SID is correct in one aspect based on the many conversations I have had with downstate Republicans and that is in the description of what many conservative voters feel about Topinka. Many are saying that they view her and the current governor’s social programs to be very similar in furthering a social welfare state.
Where I feel SID is incorrect is on his assertion that these same Republicans are going to vote for the current governor. This is quite the contrary to the responses I have heard. To date I have not heard of one Republican that would be willing to vote for the current governor due to his lack of leadership, numerous lapses of ethics, driving Illinois into the greatest debtor state in the nation and his overall lack of actual accomplishments.
On the other hand I have also spoken to many Democrats that have said they will never vote again for the current governor as he has let down the party for the sake of his own personal gain. These Democrats will never reveal their true voting intent to any pollster because they are afraid this would get back to the governor’s people and they would loose their jobs but when they’re in the privacy of their own voting booths they will let their feelings for the governor known.
- Gus Frerotte's Clipboard - Tuesday, Sep 5, 06 @ 12:20 pm:
The Governor raised $20+ million for a reason: to spend it now, to win over the people who haven’t really followed politics all that closely. The people who read about politics every day, and who care about what editorial boards say, have basically already made up their minds. The Governor is going after the many people out there who are likely to vote but don’t really follow politics that carefully.
Looking at that targeted population, you have to say: (1) in Illinois more of those folks will be Democrats than Republicans; and (2) the Governor will have much better resources to reach them than candidate Topinka. And his ads are generally very good.
There are no doubt a lot of Democrats who will defect from him, but right now he’s got a meaningful lead and the resources to preserve it. Barring the intervention of Patrick Fitzgerald, it’s hard to see any winning scenario for Topinka at this point.
- Bill - Tuesday, Sep 5, 06 @ 12:56 pm:
Stick a fork in Judy, she’s done.
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Sep 5, 06 @ 12:57 pm:
A lot of Republicans may not vote for Blago, but they aren’t voting for Topinka either. They’re just going to stay home. It’s going to be “none of the above” for a lot Repubs and Dems, but Repubs more so.
It’s a bad year everywhere for Repubs, and it will only be magnified in Illinois. I can see the worst election ever for the IL GOP. All signs point that way and the old leadership is doing all it can to make it worse.
It’s pretty obvious now that Topinka was the WORST candidate to go against Blago.
- (618) Democrat - Tuesday, Sep 5, 06 @ 1:33 pm:
Ms Radogno: If being down in the polls makes you very happy you will be very very happy on November 8.
- Realist - Tuesday, Sep 5, 06 @ 2:21 pm:
Blago wins unless there are indictments.
- VanillaMan - Tuesday, Sep 5, 06 @ 2:48 pm:
Blagojevich has peaked. Topinka hasn’t. Democrats see this and want to call the election while their guy is still ahead and unindicted.
But the election is November, and Topinka still hasn’t started campaigning. At this point, all we know is that Blagojevich isn’t liked by the majority of voters polled. And after spending millions upon millions and flooding every television set throughout the state, he failed to change that.
Blagojevich peaked. Topinka hasn’t.
- Gus Frerotte's Clipboard - Tuesday, Sep 5, 06 @ 3:17 pm:
VanillaMan, I’d agree that it’s way too early to call the election, but there’s no guarantee that Topinka hasn’t peaked. The money she has isn’t enough to guarantee a big bump, and Blagojevich may be able to keep her positives down with a barrage of negative ads. That having been said, she probably will go up a little bit — but it’s awfully late for a candidate with very little money and an underwhelming campaign apparatus to make up the kind of ground she needs to make up. Moreover, Rich Whitney may actually help the Governor at least a little bit by siphoning off some of the “anyone but Blagojevich” vote.
- Squideshi - Tuesday, Sep 5, 06 @ 3:31 pm:
This poll was conducted BEFORE Rich Whitney was certified by the State Board of Elections. Whitney got 2% before he was even on the ballot!
Also, who would want to vote for a Treasurer that can’t count? What does she mean “the two of us in this race?” Isn’t she aware that there are THREE candidates on the ballot? Either she’s not informed, or she’s being deceptive.
- Bill - Tuesday, Sep 5, 06 @ 3:46 pm:
Judy is making Eisendrath’s campaign look like JFK’s.
- B Hicks - Tuesday, Sep 5, 06 @ 3:54 pm:
All we’ve heard for the last 6 months is: Judy hasn’t started yet, she has the perfect plan, it’s way too early, wait until July, wait until the state fair, wait until Labor Day. When does she plan starting?
It’s all going to backfire, indictments are coming, wait until this, wait until that. You people talked the same BS before the primary election.
Face it; the Illinois GOP is saddled with a broke, unappealing, goofy, loud mouth candidate that needs a medication adjustment.
- (618) Democrat - Tuesday, Sep 5, 06 @ 3:55 pm:
Another thing that came out of this poll was that Senator Obama has a 70% approval rating. It is going to be great having the popular Senator out stumping for our Democratic Candidates.
- Dem Concerned - Tuesday, Sep 5, 06 @ 4:02 pm:
Alexi is toast. Alexi’s only positive is money…if radogno has money, forget about it, voters have too much common sense to vote for someone with Alexi’s record.
- Bill - Tuesday, Sep 5, 06 @ 4:46 pm:
Chris would win if she wasn’t saddled with Topinka, Birkitt, and Unholz.
- Lovie's Leather - Tuesday, Sep 5, 06 @ 5:01 pm:
Yikes… that is all I have to say about anything that goes on in Illinois. People in the United States (in general) are pretty smart people. Bush’s approval ratings are in the toilet where they should be. Yes, he was reelected and he should have been because of the candidate the dems fielded. Now, Rod Blagojevich is a total moron when it comes to government issues. Sure, he is a great campaigner and probably a good lawyer. I just don’t understand how people can not see through him. He is destroying business, running up debt to the state, forcing pharmacies to sell plan-b (I agree that plan-b should be available, but nobody should be forced to sell anything), and is not even in the state capitol unless he decided to take time from his busy day and fly down. That last one doesn’t seem to be an issue for most people. It is a huge issue for me. I go to NIU and some of my classes have attendance policies. I can’t just not show up. What Topinka needs to do is run an ad with Ben Stein in it and go through the role call… Judy Barr Topinka… here. Hynes… here. White… here. Madigan… here. Rod Blagojevich… Blago… Blago… Blago… Blago….
- B Hicks - Tuesday, Sep 5, 06 @ 5:06 pm:
That’s a good one, Love, but I think that Carl Spackler summed it up several years ago:
In order to win, one must know his enemy. In this case, the enemy is a varmint….and a varmint will never quit. They’re like the Viet-Kong—Varmint-Kong. The only way to win is to pull back, have superior firepower, superior intelligence, and that’s all she wrote.
- Arthur Andersen - Tuesday, Sep 5, 06 @ 5:48 pm:
B Hicks, that’s Viet Cong with a “C”, not a “K” as in your favorite video game, Donkey Kong.
So much for your superior varmint intelligence theory.
Besides, I think that “superior intelligence” in the context of Rod Blagojevich definitely rates oxymoron status.
- Ex-Newfie - Tuesday, Sep 5, 06 @ 8:39 pm:
I find it very interesting that 71% of the people polled were not bothered by corruption in their candidate. I guess that’s modern America - everyone’s doing it - so what! Shame on your B. Hicks. Why can’t you debate without being vicious towards someone who at least has the courage to take the governor on.