56 Comments - DOWNSTATE - Thursday, Sep 21, 06 @ 9:21 am: Well it’s over Judy Barr Topinka is the new governor.1 week ago she was 30 points behind so this means she has gained 24 points.Sounds like a landslide to me. - Bill Baar - Thursday, Sep 21, 06 @ 9:28 am: I think it confirms YDD’s correlations with Bush’s overall approval (and the price of gas maybe?)… whether she can keep it moving depends on the debates…. looking inside there on how she does with women…not very good… - VanillaMan - Thursday, Sep 21, 06 @ 9:32 am: What we know is that when Blagojevich gets news like this, he re-appears, suit pressed, hair all shiney, big smile - GOOD, maybe he can start answering some questions about the lastest scandals about shakedowns, $1500 birthday checks, and ILLEGAL drug imports! I think the candy is starting to fall out of the pinata that is Rod Blagojevich. - Anonymous - Thursday, Sep 21, 06 @ 9:33 am: Now that is what I call closing the gap!! Take that Blago and the Sun Times. - Political Insider - Thursday, Sep 21, 06 @ 9:37 am: 1 in 4 polls are totally wrong. This is the closest yet, but accurate? This is one weird election. - Wumpus - Thursday, Sep 21, 06 @ 9:38 am: She does not have the testicular verility of Elvis. That said, I find it hard to beleive that women will overwhelmingly support Rod over Judy. It is not like she is some right leaning candidate, she is a moderate and a single mom (I think) of a member of the armed forces. She is personable and those generally transfer into votes..we will see. - Bill Baar - Thursday, Sep 21, 06 @ 9:42 am: accurate for yesterday… - Anonymous - Thursday, Sep 21, 06 @ 9:49 am: Wow…she withers the Gov’s 24 point lead in a week. By next week, she should be up by 20. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Thursday, Sep 21, 06 @ 9:59 am: Bill - I’m not sure Bush’s numbers have moved all that much, atleast not enough to account for Topinka’s bump. What this poll actually shows is that undecided voters might finally be starting to break Topinka’s way, which you should expect. I’m sure the birthday gift stor isn’t helping. Gov. Blagojevich MIGHT want to rethink his strategy of keeping Rich Whitney out of the debates. According to the crosstabs, Topinka leads Blagojevich 42-30 among independents, but Rich Whitney is picking up a huge 15% of that vote. Whitney is also pulling 9% inthe suburbs. If you accept the premise that Blagojevich is stuck at somewhere around 46-48% and the other voters have got to go somewhere, Rod needs Whitney to get 5-9% of the vote. One thing we should all be able to agree upon is tha the Sun-Times poll was bunk. - confused - Thursday, Sep 21, 06 @ 10:02 am: Rich, I thought I just saw a poll with Blagojevich leading by 30 points. Which one is closest to the truth? - RickG - Thursday, Sep 21, 06 @ 10:03 am: Well, this is interesting news, especially since Whitney is identified as a LIBERTARIAN. So, yeah. Grain of salt. - RickG - Thursday, Sep 21, 06 @ 10:04 am: (Yes, he’s also identified as Green…I just found it funny. Fact-checking, peeps) - Anon - Thursday, Sep 21, 06 @ 10:09 am: YDD makes a good point about Whitney, but I’ll take it one further. The dems fought like mad to keep him off the ballot, yet it may be the ultimate irony that Whitney saves it for Rod in the end. I’m a democrat who enthusiastically voted for Rod four years, but now think he has turned out to be a complete disaster. I’m going to vote for Whitney instead of Judy. However, were it a two person race I’d be voting for her in a heartbeat. As YDD pointed out, Rod can now stay at 46-48 and still win, which he wouldn’t have been able to do one-on-one. - Cassandra - Thursday, Sep 21, 06 @ 10:13 am: This needs to be a close election for the benefit of the voters. If Topinka wins, that will be a mandate for ending corruption, John Kass notwithstanding. If Blago wins by a landslide that means Illinois citizens don’t care about corruption. If Blago wins in a squeak, one hopes (although given his arrogance and Chicago Democratic Machine provenance one certainly can’t be sure) that he would be frightened into reform. And with our Blago, fright is the only reason he would change his corrupt ways. Blago’s strength among women is puzzling. Are women really buying the I’m a cute peppy guy routine. Shame on us. - Sound Reasoning - Thursday, Sep 21, 06 @ 10:18 am: At least the Survey USA poll seems legitimate when compared to the Sun-Times poll. The tiny sampling that Sun-Times used completely invalidated their poll; however, many media outlets still picked up on it. I read numerous stories quoting the Sun-Times poll to show Topinka was 30 points behind the gov. Wonder how those same media outlets will report this poll and explain away the big differences in numbers. Just the fact that the Survey USA poll used twice as many respondents gives it more credibility. If I was the governor I think I’d be worrying more about that $1,500 dollar ‘gift’ check. Since that story broke I have heard people, who never paid any attention to any of the other ongoing investigations, suddenly talking about how this ‘gift’ just isn’t right and how this seems like Ryan is still running the governor’s office. Not good for the ‘reformer’ Blagojevich. - Jacques Strappe - Thursday, Sep 21, 06 @ 10:24 am: Wonder if the FunTimes will report on *this* poll… Pingback IlliniPundit.com » Blog Archive » Topinka Down Just Six? - Thursday, Sep 21, 06 @ 10:26 am: […] That’s what Survey USA says, in a poll linked by Capitol Fax blog. […] - Jechislo - Thursday, Sep 21, 06 @ 10:51 am: Rod still has the upper hand - but only barely. Judy is only 1.7 points behind if you figure in the 4.3% margin of error. In reality, I think it has been this close all along. Judy can still win this. She is very much in this race. I think they may be counting the votes for several days to determine the actual winner. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, “It ain’t over till it’s over”. - Conservative Republican - Thursday, Sep 21, 06 @ 10:51 am: Cassandra: women are not “buying” Blago’s act; they are merely abandoning the unappealing JBT in droves. Blago’s solid support by liberal women’s groups helps seal the deal for them. - HANKSTER - Thursday, Sep 21, 06 @ 10:58 am: Cassandra: I dont know how you could possibly claim that a Topinka win would be a mandate for ending corruption. One of Topinka’s biggest flaws is that she is deeply intrenched in the system. Polls how that people don’t trust her much more, if any, on the corruption issue than they do Blagojevich. - RealClear - Thursday, Sep 21, 06 @ 11:00 am: Disappointing that both the SunTimes and SurveyUSA are using such a small sampling of “likely” voters. But maybe pollsters are having a hard time getting people that even care enough about the election this year to sit through a poll - who knows. All these polls show is that voters in Illinois are in the “none of the above” camp. Neither candidate has the confidence of the voters. Low turnout = Blagojevich win. - Little Egypt - Thursday, Sep 21, 06 @ 11:56 am: Someone with testicular verility would appear at press conferences and answer difficult questions instead of issuing a “press release of the day” announcing a new spending program that has no money or playing duck and cover with the press. Someone with testicular verility would not cancel debates but would stand up in front of a panel and answer questions truthfully. Someone with testicular verility would not thumb their nose at the Auditor General’s findings by enlarging an aready illegal foreign prescription program. Someone with testicular verility would not exploit children by having them appear in a TV ad whining “WHAT WAS SHE THINKING”. That’s not testicular verility - that’s stupidity. The contest has NOT become more gender polarized over the past 60 days. The POLL itself has become more gender polarized. I don’t care if a poll comes out and shows JBT ahead by 30 points. I don’t believe ANY poll - just the one after the voting ends and ballots are counted. I understand this is a three party race and some of you are going to vote for Whitney. I have half considered that myself. In doing so, however, as much as I can’t stand GoverNOT Hairdo, my vote for Whitney, in fact, means that I am helping Elvis get back into office. Whitney is a candidate but is not an equal candidate in vote getting strength. So now, say that it is only a 2 party race and you don’t want to vote for Elvis but would instead vote for JBT. Go back to the three party race and what difference does it make? If you want a new governor, a vote for Blogo or Whitney is not going to get the job done. I’d love to see Whitney win but in this state, it ain’t gonna happen - not this election. - Scott Fawell's Cellmate - Thursday, Sep 21, 06 @ 11:59 am: Topinka hasn’t hit 40 percent since the April Rasmussen poll, and we’re 7 weeks away from Election Day. She is stuck at 39%, and there is no indication she knows how to get more. Topinka can’t make a race out of this and every indicator - this Survey USA poll, the Rasmussen poll, the Sun Times poll, and all the narratives and cross-tabs from these polls - shows she will be spending December taking the dogs thrift shopping and to lunch. But not in Chicago. No dogs at cafes. - Diversity of Thought - Thursday, Sep 21, 06 @ 12:13 pm: I think the real winner from that poll is Whitney. The 7% closely matches the last legitimate poll (in terms of sample size) conducted by the Tribune that put him at 6%. Also, it shows that Whitney taking 9% from self-identified conservatives and 11% from self-identified liberals. Greens have consistently made the argument that they take votes from both sides of the aisle, and this is really proving to be true. They’re also taking 7% from self-identified Republicans while taking 3% from self-identified Democrats. Independents are obviously his biggest supporters at 15%. There’s so many people on both sides that despise one or the other of Blago and Topinka that they were ready to vote for the other’s opposition until Whitney came along. He’s really a sharp candidate running an extremely good grassroots campaign on an admittedly tight budget. He’s a much better “protest” vote than Blago or Topinka. Finally, I think we’ll all be pretty miserable when either Blago or Topinka (most likely Blago) takes the Governorship in another month and a half. In my opinion, the best possible outcome is for the Green Party to get established as an official party. There are county boards (not just cook), city councils, and even the ILGA that get gridlocked into ridiculous Illinois-style partisanship bickering. Forget about the Governor’s mansion for a moment, and imagine the impact if they get established and a few Greens get elected to the ILGA. It’s looking like Tom Abram, in Champaign/Urbana’s 103rd has an excellent shot, and they could realistically pick up dozens of seats in ‘08 without the ballot access fights they went through this election cycle. - Dawson's Trumpet - Thursday, Sep 21, 06 @ 12:20 pm: I think women are attracted to Blago due to his dreamy hair and his obvious drive to take financial care of his children. - Judy, Judy, Judy - Thursday, Sep 21, 06 @ 12:29 pm: Great debate today folks! But what I’m reading in a lot of your comments is that both Judy and Rod are not considered trustworthy by the voters of Illinois. While many of you say that you say you won’t vote for Whitney because he doesn’t “stand” a chance at winning. I think everyone needs to step outside the box and give Whitney a good look - send a BIG message to Springfield, let them know you are sick of all the ‘behind the backs of citizens games’ that you want a new person who hasn’t been entrenched with politics as usual in Illinois. We have to get out of this Republican/Democrat only voting and vote for the person - in this case the only real change would happen with a change in Springfield. Think about it and give Rich a chance. One more thing - Mr. Testicular Verility should show some of that and debate Rich Whitney, what’s he scared of? - Southern IL Belle - Thursday, Sep 21, 06 @ 12:36 pm: Attention Topinka campaign: Judy Barr Topinka needs to debate Rich Whitney if she would like to close her gap with Blagojevich. Tuesday night 9/26 7:00, if Blagojevich wont show, the debate sponsors have said they will do a televised studio debate with Topinka and Whitney. That would throw the towel down and make this a REAL campaign fight. Blagojevich might think he can win this fight, but he is too frightened to really put his title up for grabs. Debate Whitney without Blagojevich! This is the BEST campaign move you could possibly make right now. - spintreebob - Thursday, Sep 21, 06 @ 12:40 pm: Whitney = None of the above. It’s easier for us Conservatives to make Whitney the symbolic protest than Stuffleupagus. And now he’s libertarian? That might seal my vote for him. The Green party on the ballot in 2008 is icing on the cake. - Harry Truman - Thursday, Sep 21, 06 @ 1:07 pm: I hear the Sun-Times is going to predict Tom Dewey by 40 percent next week, scooping the Tribune. - Centrist - Thursday, Sep 21, 06 @ 1:13 pm: Sun-Times has egg on its face. You get what you pay for, guys. 400 ain’t enough. Might as well have polled the 3rd grade at Kennedy Elementary School. Doesn’t mean anything. - HoosierDaddy - Thursday, Sep 21, 06 @ 1:39 pm: We still have a long way to go in this election and it looks like the momentum ain’t in Rod’s direction. This race will get even closer, and the closer the Feds get to Rod, the farther the voters will get from Rod. If Judy avoids any major gaffes in the next few weeks, and if she can consolidate her support among the GOP base, she might just win. With only 73 percent of Republicans supporting her, she could close the gap by another 3 or 4 points just solidifying her base. It needs to be about 85 percent. - Bubs - Thursday, Sep 21, 06 @ 1:51 pm: If she’s at six points down with a month and a half to go, in spite of all of Rod’s millions in TV ads, she’s not in bad shape at all! This poll could give the RNC new interest in this race, since they are pouring so much into the 6th anyway. That would be very bad news for Elvis. JBT’s concrete plans for recovery, together with the Governor’s emerging (and yet to emerge) criminal conduct problems in his Adminsitration, can put her over the top. - Jechislo - Thursday, Sep 21, 06 @ 1:52 pm: Scott Fawell’s Cellmate 11:59 am: After millions, and millions and millions of dollars spent on negative campaigning Rod hasn’t hit 50%. Judy may not have been above 40% since the April Rasmussen poll but she is now starting to spend what campaign money she has. If Rod continues to languish where he is in the mid-40’s and she picks up 3 - 4 points, this race is a toss-up. It’s going to get very interesting folks. This race is far from over. - Scott Fawell's Cellmate - Thursday, Sep 21, 06 @ 2:02 pm: Hoosier Daddy 1:39 p.m.: respectfully, with this kind of “momentum,” Topinka should be at 48% by May 2007. The election is 7 weeks away; the time for the statement “[w]e still have a long way to go in this election” was May 21, not September 21. You don’t have a long way to go. Again, Topinka has never gotten above 40% in any poll. She is stuck, and while folks may dispute the numbers from the CS-T poll, most people agree the narratives from those polled in that poll ring true: the problem is Judy. Period. The majority of Republican voters knew this in the primary and voted accordingly then, and everyone is seeing it in the general election. - DOWNSTATE - Thursday, Sep 21, 06 @ 2:08 pm: We are seeing more and more of Topinka For Governor signs going up.Sounds to me like she’s gaining monentum and he’s doing an imatation of the Titanic. - leigh - Thursday, Sep 21, 06 @ 2:11 pm: I think if you poll a classroom of third graders you will be closer than the Sun-Times poll. Third graders will reflect the view of their parents I am not sure what the Sun-Times poll reflects. - HANKSTER - Thursday, Sep 21, 06 @ 2:12 pm: Its funny how so many people like to dismiss polls that arent favorable to Topinka (im not talking about Suntimes either) but the second one comes out that shows her a little closer thats the best poll ever done. Very interesting. - DOWNSTATE - Thursday, Sep 21, 06 @ 2:15 pm: Bubs you forgot to mention the millions of dollars us taxpayers have spent in state pamplets for different programs that get mailed out with his picture on it.So I would say she is in great shape.She has gained 2 points in a week so with 6 weeks to go that adds up to 12 points.The prediction was she would beat him by 5 points so she is on schedule. - Angie - Thursday, Sep 21, 06 @ 2:27 pm: The doggie ad? (chuckle) It was a good start, because it showed her smiling and that she was “ready” to kick off the real campaign season after the bus tour, which was also a good idea, since she needs downstate votes, too. But “The Check” as was very very nice as well, because they used the headlines from the newspapers, and if I recall correctly, didn’t the Chicago Tribune break the story that the FBI was looking into the Amygate affair over that check? Good work on that ad. I’ll bet this’ll be like a quick ending to a boxing match, where Rod will swing and swing until he’s exhausted, and in the end, the investigations into his admin. will just be the rope that he hangs himself with. And then again, there’s always the rather obvious fact that Judy may end up doing more with less money, which is exactly what Illinois as a whole will be doing for a long time if we don’t get Rod out of town. - Garp - Thursday, Sep 21, 06 @ 2:30 pm: I would agree with Southern Il Belle that Topinka should debate Whitnet without the governor showing him to be a coward. - Squideshi - Thursday, Sep 21, 06 @ 2:31 pm: Compare Rich Whitney’s 7% with the mere 3% that Jesse Ventura got in the Minnesota primary around this time. The people who said that Ventura couldn’t win were wrong, and the people who say that Whitney can’t win are also wrong. - HoosierDaddy - Thursday, Sep 21, 06 @ 2:49 pm: Cellmate… go back to your cell, you worry me. Seriously, when you consider momentum, you need to consider that Rob was up by about 10 points three weeks ago, and Judy was closer to 35 or 36. If Judy has indeed picked up four points in three weeks, she’s got plenty of time. In three more weeks it will be a two point gap, and on election day it will be anybody’s game Keep in mind that she just started spending her money. Rod had dumped 10 million on her with no response since April. The question you need to ask yourself is why HE never got above 46 percent. The truth is, tho, that this will not matter unless another poll or two shows the same movement- you need confirmation. The problem with the poll that showed Judy down 30 ridiculous points is that it was so far out of line with other polls at the same time. No confirmation for that poll– and there won’t be. Now, if the next poll shows Judy down by 11, then we can dismiss this current poll as an outlier in Judy’s direction and say Rod really is up somwehere between 9 and 12 points. I doubt it. - HoosierDaddy - Thursday, Sep 21, 06 @ 2:51 pm: Squid– Jesse Ventura was a nationally known celebrity with an enormous personality and lots of media coverage. Who the heck has even heard of Rich Whitney outside of this board? - Centrist - Thursday, Sep 21, 06 @ 3:28 pm: Rich, I hope you’ll push for more follow-up on this Sun-Times poll. Your analysis raises some interesting questions. If that poll was screwed up, and the sample was not what they said, then two media giants have done a HUGE disservice to JBT and the public. - Buck Flagojevich - Thursday, Sep 21, 06 @ 3:58 pm: The momentum is starting to turn and Rod is helping it with even more juvenile behaviour. That Rod polls so high among women is truly an amazing phenomenon. The older ladies think he is “cute” and the Mommy’s THINK he is helping families and children with his PR antics. What are they thinking? Oh. They’re not. - Squideshi - Thursday, Sep 21, 06 @ 4:34 pm: HoosierDaddy, that’s exactly the point–Ventura was a nationally known celebrity with lots of media coverage and he didn’t even get half of what Whitney is polling now. That’s quite an accomplishment! - Huckleberry - Thursday, Sep 21, 06 @ 5:50 pm: The Sun-Times should be embarrassed by publicizing its poll, and other outlets should be ashamed of having advertised the results. If the news medis is going to insist on treating poll results as real news, then they need to apply their seldom-used but often-bragged about ethical guidlines when they do the polls themselves. - M.V. - Thursday, Sep 21, 06 @ 7:12 pm: Question is, what are the favorables for each candidate. I ask because I still suspect Whitney has a high “no opinion” score, which means he’s drawing 7% without the majority of people having even heard of him. Only lately has the media shown interest in the Whitney campaign, and since he’s the only thing interesting about the race, he is only going to get more and more media coverage over the next month and a half. - Southern IL Belle - Thursday, Sep 21, 06 @ 7:46 pm: Note to Topinka campaign: Blagojevich’s people would schizzle fo snizzle if you debated Whitney without Rod. It would boost you and Whitney’s numbers and knock Rod down several notches into reality. Is nobody at camp Topinka paying attention to the downstate situation? Rod is going to allienate downstate voters for refusing to participate in a debate that was agreed to weeks ago. A Topinka/Whitney debate without Rod is camp Blagojevich’s GREATEST fear. Lend credibility and legitimacy to Whitney’s campaign and show downstate voters you will work for their vote. If you look at the wording of the Blagojevich statement you can see they are frightened. If you are not going to seize this opportunity, what are you thinking?? - HoosierDaddy - Thursday, Sep 21, 06 @ 9:00 pm: Point taken, Squid. But my point is that it was much easier for Ventura to climb in the polls because of all the media exposure he received from being a national figure with a larger than life personality. Whitney does not have that advantage. Whitney’s numbers are essentially the “none of the above” vote. If Whitney polls above 10 percent on election day I’ll owe you a beverage. My guess is about 6 percent. - Madigan 4 Topinka - Thursday, Sep 21, 06 @ 9:30 pm: Madigan sent his top law dog - Mike Kasper - to get Whitney off the ballot. Kasper has never failed to get anybody off a ballot. How did he fail this time? Does Madigan want Blago to go down? - tough guy - Thursday, Sep 21, 06 @ 9:38 pm: Do the numbers look right for Hispanic support for Topinka 70% and Blagojevich 23%? If anything I thought they would be the otherway around. Any explanations? - Angie - Friday, Sep 22, 06 @ 12:57 am: Don’t forget that Rod gets the Nation of Islam vote! A radical sect of Islam (we all know there are mainstream versions and then NOI is like a radical sect) has one of their own right there on Blago’s so-called hate crimes panel. You know, the one where all of the Jewish members left in disgust when the Sister refused to denounce the NOI leader? Yeah, I’ll bet he gets votes from them. Niiiiiice people to have in your camp, Rod, folks whose leader has said…well…Google the quotes yourself. Ugh. Nasty! - T.J. - Friday, Sep 22, 06 @ 3:44 am: “Forget about the Governor’s mansion for a moment, and imagine the impact if they get established and a few Greens get elected to the ILGA. It’s looking like Tom Abram, in Champaign/Urbana’s 103rd has an excellent shot,” Not even Tom Abram and his mother think that. - Martha Mitchell - Friday, Sep 22, 06 @ 5:36 am: I wonder why people think that their vote is wasted if they don’t vote for the winner. Whitney is climbing all the time and isn’t it better to have a clear conscience that to vote for one of two people most of us find unacceptable to lead this state. What does voting for a winner do for you? You won’t get a tax break or a raise or more money for schools, etc. You get bragging rights but considering how most of the state feels about the choices, it may be best to keep the bragging to a minimum. Show some “virility” folks and vote for someone who just may be able to get things done the right way and who doesn’t have friends subject to indictment. - Squideshi - Friday, Sep 22, 06 @ 9:17 am: HoosierDaddy, there is no doubt in my mind that Rich Whitney will achieve more than 10% of the vote. It won’t be at all difficult to pick up an extra 3% between now and the election. Once he breaks the 10% mark, a lot of people are going to start rethinking Whitney’s electability and that’s only going to improve his numbers. The snowball has started rolling, and it’s getting bigger. Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.