Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar » New poll has two races much closer than believed
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
New poll has two races much closer than believed

Wednesday, Oct 18, 2006

Constituent Dynamics has some fresh numbers for Illinois congressional races. You will recall that they already polled IL 6, 14 and 19 and came up with a few surprises.

These new results are a lot different than commonly believed. Melissa Bean is thought to have a larger lead than this, and Mark Kirk is believed by nobody to be below 50. Still, we’re looking at 1,000 respondents in these (automated) phone polls. Both polls were conducted Oct. 15-16.

* Bean-McSweeney, 47-44 - Crosstabs here [pdf] (They didn’t include the third candidate in the race.)

bean_mcsweeney_10.jpg

* Kirk-Seals, 46-44 - Crosstabs here [pdf]

kirk_seals_10.jpg

- Posted by Rich Miller        

13 Comments
  1. - Carl Nyberg - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 6:31 pm:

    Kirk is the kind of weasel who ran on enlisted members being on food stamps and then didn’t do anything about it once elected.

    Kirk is the kind of weasel who would stuff his pockets with Exelon money and then argue that keeping nuclear waste at Zion would make the waste more vulnerable to terrorism than it would be if it was being transported across the country from a few hundred sources to Nevada.

    Kirk is the kind of weasel that when the interests of the DOD conflict with the communities he represents he takes the side of the federal gov’t.

    Nobody believes Kirk is below 50%? Well I do because I’ve met him. He sold himself to the district as being a Republican like John Porter, a Republican with conscience who would buck party leadership.

    But in reality Kirk is a pro-choice Republican hack looking to advance his career by ingratiating himself to the bosses.

    If Kirk is polling below 50% it’s probably because the district is starting to catch on that he’s a fraud and he’s be deceiving his constituents from the beginning.


  2. - NW burbs - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 6:39 pm:

    Please refresh my memory: wasn’t Sheurer pulling from both candidates in the last poll to include him? (And when was the last poll that included him…?)

    I still don’t see how McSweeney pulls it off. Bean’s still got her GOTV from 2 and 4 years ago; it’s likely only gotten stronger w/ incumbency (cue conservatives grasping at straws about donut-eating union guys).

    Seals… if the election were in another month maybe. This one will be close. We’ll have to see how his ads do for him.

    I’m not surprised Kirk is that low. A lot of Republicans are upset with Washington which, lo and behold, is controlled by Republicans. And you can’t sit on your duff in DC and expect people to still be hunky-dory with you, esp. not in this environment.


  3. - Bob Choda - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 7:04 pm:

    Not even Dan Seals’ own poll has Kirk below 50%.


  4. - Wumpus - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 7:18 pm:

    NW Burbs, You are off, I believe it is Skeeter who always refers to the Donut eating union guys who didn’t help. Even as jaded as you two are, there is no way that he is conservative. Personally, I think it may be a wash. I am not sure if the union s are helping as much, but that may be offset by incumbancy. I think Scheurer may take some Iraq wa opponents from McSweeney and anti-aborters from Bean.

    Question, does Seals live in the ninth? If so, this is so sickening. Bean lives in the 10th and won/is running in the 8th. Duckworth lives in the 8th and is running in the 6th. Seals lives in the 9th and runs in the 10th. I can understand one, but this is becoming an epidimic.


  5. - Lovie's Leather - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 7:27 pm:

    From what I hear from the Hastert campaign, Kirk’s hard reelect numbers were huge. I am not saying that this poll is wrong. I just don’t think Seals looks as good as this poll makes him look. Same thing with McSweeney. These numbers make him look better than he is. I would look at these polls in the context of the previous polls from this month.


  6. - Anon '04 - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 7:45 pm:

    Those 8th District numbers look off on the region (county) breakdown. Didn’t Bean top Crane by 10 points down there last time? Because this poll shows that being the center of McSweeney support, and I just don’t by Schaumburg coming out for him.


  7. - Philosophe Forum - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 8:05 pm:

    The numbers for the Republican incumbents could be even worse. Conservative groups aren’t happy with Shimkus (IL-19). From what I hear in So. IL, they’re discouraging Republican voters from voting for him.

    A poll of Madison Co. only showed Shimkus & Stover at 43 - 43. Shimkus is toast, & he knows it.

    Now if all of this positive change could help Dr. Gill get elected in IL-15, that would be great! Johnson’s such a stumbing fool.


  8. - Two things - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 8:58 pm:

    Hey Wumpus, Bean lived in the 8th until Republicans wrote her out of the district. Duckworth lives in the 8th because she couldn’t find a house she liked and that was accesible for her in the 6th. Each of them lives within a mile of the district they are running in as far as I know. Wumpus, are you against anyone running in the 17th? I mean that district is so far over the place that how can someone really be from that area? I would say it’s better to have someone from Aurora run for Congress for a DuPage County district than for someone from the Quad Cities area represent people from Springfield.

    As for Philosophe, Madison County is 43-43 for Shimkus? That’s nothing, Madison County is a Dem heartland. If Stover is running even in Madison he will lose.

    Bean will win, Duckworth will win, Seals will win, and even Pavich will win. Hastert and Manzullo will be the closest thing Illinois has to a suburban Republican congressman for the next 2 years. Then Pavich and Seals will face tough races, but I think Duckworth and Bean will hold on for quite awhile.


  9. - Trust Me - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 9:19 pm:

    Carl Nyberg, (begin slow-clap here): Bravo. Ditto. Encore.

    In his DC office, Kirk requested and currently displays Don Rumsfeld’s stand-up desk from his long-ago House days. In the 10th district, he wants to be John Porter’s protege, in DC he wants to be Don Rumsfeld’s protege.

    I hope that 10th district voters will finally see through Kirk’s weasel-i-ness, once and for all. He’s a big part of the problem.


  10. - Establishment Republican - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 11:38 pm:

    The methodology of this poll is very suspect, and nobody in their right mind would believe that *both* Seals and McSweeney are currently this close in districts next door to each other.

    This same poll also shows all kinds of wacky numbers from around the country with Democrats holding leads that are much wider than DCCC polling shows and in a place like CO 7, with the Republican actually ahead.

    And for what it is worth, this poll, which showed Duckworth up 1 point over Roskam in August, now shows Roskam up by 1 point.


  11. - statistics major - Wednesday, Oct 18, 06 @ 11:51 pm:

    Sorry to burst everyone’s bubble but Mr. Math here will no debunk this poll. Rich–pay close attention and then spread to your colleagues.

    Most polls are conducted based on “random sampling.” That is the most statistically sound way to survey a large universe. What is a sample, after all? It’s a small piece of the pie that’s supposed to represent the whole. To get this kind of picture, statistics teaches us you must collect a number of random samples from the whole–enough to meet a 95% confidence interval and produce a credible representation.

    This polling company is NOT using random sampling (http://www.constituentdynamics.com
    /mw/methodology). They are using something called “Quota Sampling”, which is a form of non-random sampling and is known to cause serious bias and error. Here’s a good website to learn more about non-random sampling: http://www.abs.gov.au/
    websitedbs/D3310116.NSF
    /4a255eef008309e44a255eef00
    061e57/a9a3a3d8155170954a2
    567ac002161a6!OpenDocument.


  12. - Rich Miller - Thursday, Oct 19, 06 @ 12:03 am:

    stats major, i think you’re reading too much into the methodology description. you have a point. still, your “aha” moment is a bit exaggerated.


  13. - Way Northsider - Thursday, Oct 19, 06 @ 8:03 am:

    If the 10th district voters are finally getting the message that Kirk is not who is pretends to be I am delighted! He is totally two faced. Says one thing, does another. Hopefully it’s coming back to haunt him. He is Rumsfeld’s protege, not Porters.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today's Capitol Fax
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* *** LIVE COVERAGE ***
* Erika Harold reports $1.5 million contribution from Ken Griffin, $100K from Jennifer Pritzker
* Yesterday's stories

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............
<


Loading


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
October 2018
September 2018
August 2018
July 2018
June 2018
May 2018
April 2018
March 2018
February 2018
January 2018
December 2017
November 2017
October 2017
September 2017
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress




Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller