Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar » Daily Herald/ABC7 poll: 48-32-12 *** Updated x1 ***
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Daily Herald/ABC7 poll: 48-32-12 *** Updated x1 ***

Monday, Oct 30, 2006

Even more so than with the Daily Herald’s congressional polling, all of these gubernatorial numbers are postively ancient, since the poll was conducted Oct. 16-22, according to the paper. In other words, they sat on these results for eight days and some of the numbers are over two weeks old.

The governor led Topinka by 16 percentage points, 48 percent to 32 percent, in the poll. And in a sign voters view this as the proverbial “None-of-the-Above” election, little-known Green Party candidate Rich Whitney polled 12 percent support, likely an unprecedented showing for a third-party candidate in Illinois. […]

In this campaign, though, women voters backed Blagojevich by a nearly 2-to-1 margin. And the governor led Topinka by 13 percentage points, 45-32 percent, in suburban Cook, and by 12 percentage points, 47-35 percent, in the DuPage, Lake, Kane, McHenry and Will collar counties.

That campaign is working, the poll shows. Asked to rate Topinka on a 1-10 scale, those surveyed rated her a 4.0 - lower than any statewide candidate this fall and even lower than President Bush, who rated a 4.2. Topinka was rated a 5.6 just two years earlier.

Blagojevich’s own rating stood at 4.6, dropping a full point from two years ago, a likely indication the seemingly endless stream of stories about corruption allegations in his administration is taking a toll.

*** UPDATE *** The Tribune/WGN poll isn’t on the Web yet, but I’m told the results are: 44-29-13

- Posted by Rich Miller        

27 Comments
  1. - Garp - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 6:20 pm:

    In my own polling, which constitutes going door to door, I also have found that women do not like JBT and I really don’t think there is anything she can do about it. A very strange election. Every time a bad story comes out about Blago, JBT drops 2 points.


  2. - Squideshi - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 6:38 pm:

    I wish that the pollsters would do head to head matchups between Whitney and his opponents, like they do for for Blago and Topinka. I think that we would see some very interesting results.


  3. - Little Egypt - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 6:39 pm:

    Rich, if the numbers are so ancient, why post them?


  4. - HRH Weezer - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 6:42 pm:

    If Judy’s camp were smart they would get more air time with Joe Birkett in the next week. Put that man in front of the cameras — he’s far more likable than Judy and could help sway some of the undecideds and none-of-the-abovers.


  5. - Rich Miller - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 6:43 pm:

    LE, ABC7 is the number one news station in Chicago. When they run these numbers, it’s news. Somebody has to point out the age of the numbers, however, and that’s what I did.


  6. - Southern Illinois Democrat - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 6:49 pm:

    JBT is done. Now the thing to watch is how high will Whitney go? Can he reach 15 or 20 percent? Can he actually win a county? This could be the biggest story of the night.


  7. - NoGiftsPlease - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 6:52 pm:

    The people I know would be indifferent between JBT and Blago,and would like to vote Blago out. Unfortunately the Quinn vs. Birkett angle makes JBT unelectable for moderates. She really shot herself in the foot with that choice.


  8. - DOWNSTATE - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 7:06 pm:

    Why do the Chicago polls show higher numbers than other polls.


  9. - GOPGal - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 7:25 pm:

    If you watched the interviews on ABC7 with some of the voters polled, you would see that their opinions are timeless. There was very little in their reasoning behind their vote that would suggest they would have changed their opinion over this past week.

    Let’s face it, if the numbers were favorable for Topinka would there be any mention of the fact the poll was 8 days old. No. Of course not.


  10. - Lovie's Leather - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 7:29 pm:

    SID, to paraphrase John Candy from the movie Plains, Trains, and Automobiles… “We would have a better chance playing pick-up sticks with our butt-cheeks” than Rich Whitney winning a county….


  11. - DOWNSTATE - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 7:48 pm:

    Research 2000 on Realclear ran 800lv from 10/23 to 10/26 and came up with 9+ for Blago and about the same timeline Survey came up with 10+.So if we are to beleive the Herald Blago has lost 6 to 7 points.


  12. - elginite.org - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 8:15 pm:

    Is it too late for a write-in campaign for Jim Edgar?


  13. - Real Clear - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 8:42 pm:

    Now that Topinka’s on the defensive with the revelations about her pals Kjellander and Cellini, she’ll keep dropping. Judy fans should be careful what they wish for. Newer polls will show her doing even worse. Count on it.

    Just 5 more points to drop by election day and she’ll be down to Alan Keyes’ 27%!


  14. - Southern Illinois Democrat - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 8:44 pm:

    Lovies, Illinois voters gave a county or two to Keyes and Blago lost several in the primary. I dont think it will happen either, but stranger things have happened.


  15. - steve schnorf - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 8:59 pm:

    I think Keyes won four, all in southeatern part of the state.


  16. - politicaljunkie - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 9:27 pm:

    Real Clear…..JBT IS NOT buddies with Kjellander and Cellini. Yes, she did try to cut a deal to bring in some money for the hotel. The idea was hatched by Marty Kavorik (I believe he was her first Deputy Treasurer or something like that). The esteemed Mr. Jim Ryan put the kabosh on it for purely political reasons. In retrospect, it would have been a good deal. The money could have been invested 11 years ago. As it is, I don’t believe the state has received $0 and probably never will. The original hotel loan was OKed by Jim Thompson’s administration. Trust me on this….if JBT, Kjellander and Cellini were that great of friends the big money Republicans (50-60 year old white guys) would have dumped a ton of cash into her election. They were a no show. And it is what it is.


  17. - Cassandra - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 9:48 pm:

    Well, it’s not over til it’s over.

    And voters are gonna do what they’re gonna do.

    But if JBT loses, the next day Repubs should be planning for 2010. Because it’s going to be a really bad four years for the Dems. Investigations, big financial problems, chickens coming home.


  18. - Anon - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 9:58 pm:

    Zogby has a new poll out that has the race 39-33. Even better, the poll wasn’t taken when Jesus was a kid (like the Daily Herald’s).


  19. - Confused Republican - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 10:31 pm:

    Must be another homerun for Topinka huh?


  20. - Where's the Leadership??? - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 10:51 pm:

    It is amazing that I travel the state from Cairo to dang near Cheeseland, and I have spoken to people and outside the city of Chicago, I can’t find hardly ANYONE who is voting for the Gov…..They are not happy with Judy, but they say she is better that what is in there??? Yet all the polls have her way down.


  21. - JakeCP - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 11:06 pm:

    I believe that these polls are very misleading and that the only polls we should follow are on election day. If only Jim Oberweis wouldn’t act so bitter and support Topinka and gover her tons of cash then it would be neck and neck because of all the ads she would eb airing. This is why the ILGOP is so messed up because they don’t support each other.


  22. - GOPGal - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 11:06 pm:

    The latest Tribune/WGN poll has Topinka down 15.


  23. - JakeCP - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 11:09 pm:

    For some reason I think Topinka is going to win. I know that sounds ironic at this point.


  24. - steve schnorf - Tuesday, Oct 31, 06 @ 1:34 am:

    I read this earlier and then went out and had dinner, but I couldn’t get something out of my mind. So, I came back and re-read it.

    This poll has the Governor leading JBT by 15%, and the Governor’s head-to-head at 44%. But, if I read it correctly, built into those numbers is a finding that the Governor will win women 2-1. He won’t. No matter the good or the bad, I can’t imagine him winning that cohort more than 60-40, which would be a total blowout, but it’s far from 2-1.

    And, built into those numbers is a finding that he will win the collars by 12%, for all practical purposes the margin he is leading in suburban Cook. I may be completely out of touch, but I think he won’t win the collars by 12%. I can’t imagine a scenario much worse than approximately 50-50, and I suspect that JBT will carry the collars.

    I have neither the time nor the willingness to do the math, but it appears to me that if you back out of the Governor’s numbers the overestimates among women and in the collars, and add those back into JBT’s, the head-to-head is probably pretty close in this poll.

    Unless, of course, the poll understates the Governor’s lead in the city, in which case you would have to do the reverse math.


  25. - Squideshi - Tuesday, Oct 31, 06 @ 9:20 am:

    I have been pretty pleased with ABC7 Chicago.

    This is unlike CBS2 Chicago, which has been blatently biased against Rich Whitney, explicitly REFUSING to include him in their “Straight 2 The Issues” segment, airing every day between now and election day.

    Considering that the last Glengariff Group poll showed that 70% of Illinois voters want Whitney included, this is an incredibly BAD business decision by CBS2 Chicago; and it only demonstrates that they are out of sync with what their viewing audience wants. I will be doing my best to bring that message to their investors and advertisers.


  26. - Burbs - Tuesday, Oct 31, 06 @ 10:52 am:

    JakeCP - Monday, Oct 30, 06 @ 11:06 pm:

    Oberweis has urged voters to vote for Topinka.


  27. - Angie - Tuesday, Oct 31, 06 @ 12:12 pm:

    JakeCP wrote, “I believe that these polls are very misleading and that the only polls we should follow are on election day.”

    I have to concur with Jake. Maybe the kid will get some decent textbooks soon after all? lol

    As far as, “This is why the ILGOP is so messed up because they don’t support each other.”

    No, the Illinois GOP was left in an absolute shambles because Ryan was an absolute crook. This party needs to reform and rebuild into a viable party (aka one that can get candidates elected in what has generally been a blue state).

    JBT was one of the few left standing after the Ryan fiasco, so if anyone is griping about their choices, just stop it, because you’re lucky to have someone with as much experience in state government as she does who was actually still left standing and untainted by investigations.

    Rod had his shot at reform and has been a failure. The clear choice is a no-brainer come November, and if help is not forthcoming from JBT, then she, too, will be a one term governor. In fact, perhaps Illinois ought to just stick to one term governors so we can get any crooks who want to run locked up faster!

    Best solution is to clone Fitz, of course, but that opens up an ethical can of worms. But one can dream.;-)


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Question of the day
* Job gains flatten in third quarter
* Musical interlude: Mercedes Marxist
* Credit Unions: A Unique Concept for Financial Services
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Rumor patrol
* Because... Madigan!
* War of words intensifies between Ives and McCann
* *** UPDATED x1 - Bodyman responds *** Rauner's "one-day bodyman" resurfaces
* Two more big holes blown in discrimination lawsuit against Pritzker
* Pritzker campaign claims lawsuit doesn't get its facts right
* Republicans demand Madigan speak out, while lead plaintiff tells his story
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* *** LIVE COVERAGE ***
* Yesterday's stories

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............
<


Loading


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
October 2018
September 2018
August 2018
July 2018
June 2018
May 2018
April 2018
March 2018
February 2018
January 2018
December 2017
November 2017
October 2017
September 2017
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress




Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller