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The push begins

Monday, Nov 13, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

Today’s Sun-Times editorial sets the stage.

Following the Democrats’ Election Day harvest, the ball is now in Emil Jones’ court. Commanding a veto-proof majority, the state Senate president has the opportunity he long has been waiting for to put on a full-scale press for education-funding reform. An ardent opponent of funding schools through a reliance on property taxes, as are we, he now is in a position to confront Gov. Blagojevich’s hard-line stance against such obvious solutions as raising state taxes.

Almost as if on cue, the Illinois Federation of Teachers begins running radio ads today.

[audio:IFT_R05_06_NowsTheTime.mp3]

Here’s the script:

Illinois Federation of Teachers
60-second Radio Spot: “Now’s the Time”
November 2006

Music: Montage of ambient sound effects – school, street corner, work place.

Male Voice 1: Finally…the elections are over! Now, let’s see what the people we elected can do.

Female Voice 1: They need to roll up their sleeves and do the right thing by our families.

Male Voice 2: How ‘bout decent healthcare for me and my kids? That’s what I want from Springfield.

Male Voice 3: The politicians should be protecting retirement funds. So it’ll there when we need it.

Female Voice 2: Face it. Without good schools our children don’t have much of a future.

Jim Dougherty: I’m Jim Dougherty, President of the Illinois Federation of Teachers, the IFT.

SFX: Signature musical chord

Jim Dougherty: There are no easy answers to the problems facing our state….but now’s the time for our newly elected leaders to end partisan politics and work together to tackle these challenges head on.

With strong leadership and the right priorities from both parties, we can support public education, make sure all families have access to affordable healthcare and protect retirement funds for our senior citizens.

But to do that, we need to be sure to keep the pressure on our elected officials and pay attention to how they vote….long after election day.

Announcer: A message from the Illinois Federation of Teachers, a union of professionals.

  42 Comments      


Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Veto Session logistics and roundups; Holmes-Wintermute; Petka; Granberg-Cavaletto; Minimum wage; Rate freeze; (Use all caps in password - and use last THURSDAY’S password)

Monday, Nov 13, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Question of the day

Monday, Nov 13, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

Did Gov. Rod Blagojevich win a mandate last Tuesday? And, if you believe he did, a mandate for what?

  68 Comments      


Blowout

Monday, Nov 13, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

My syndicated newspaper column looks at the massive defeat of the Senate Republicans in Illinois. The Senate Democrats now have a veto-proof majority plus one.

[Senate GOP Leader Frank Watson’s] candidates were outclassed by one of the most extraordinary crops of Democratic hopefuls I’ve ever seen fielded at any one time; the Democrats had their most successful election since Watergate; mega-rock star Barack Obama personally campaigned or appeared in direct mail for all the Senate Democratic hopefuls and — bada-bing, bada-boom — the Republicans are left with 22 seats, and they’re now more irrelevant than an electric blanket in Baghdad.

The joke going around last week was that Watson’s punishment for losing so many races ought to be another two years as minority leader.

How serious was the Illinois Republican debacle? The AP has some bullet points.

* Forty-six percent of voters identified themselves as Democrats, compared to 39 percent just two years ago. Only 31 percent claimed the title of Republican, down from 34 percent.

* Hispanics, the state’s fastest growing ethnic group, overwhelmingly consider themselves Democrats. Seventy-nine percent of Hispanic voters identified themselves as Democrat, and only 8 percent as Republicans.

* Fifty-one percent of female voters consider themselves Democrats, and only 30 percent Republicans.

* Democrats made gains in legislative districts in Chicago suburbs that had been safely Republican, giving them a “super-majority” in the Senate that will let them pass any kind of legislation without GOP votes.

* The party’s “farm team” was devastated. Every candidate for statewide office was defeated, often by a landslide.

* For the first time in more than a century, a Democrat won a seat on the McHenry County Board.

Eric Krol adds some perspective.

The Illinois Republican Party now has managed to win just one statewide race in the past six years.

Following last week’s electoral debacle, the state GOP is 1-for-14 during that time, with the only win coming back in 2002 when Judy Baar Topinka won a third term as state treasurer. In the 13 other statewide races, whether for president, U.S. Senate or a state constitutional office, the party has fallen short.

The top-of-the-ticket has featured a conservative (Jim Ryan, who lost the 2002 governor’s race). It’s featured a moderate (Topinka, who lost the governor’s race last Tuesday). And it’s featured someone from out-of-state (Maryland’s Alan Keyes, who lost the 2004 U.S. Senate race by a record margin).

None of the approaches have worked.

And Dana Huepel reports that Mark Kirk is being mentioned a lot as the future of the Republican Party.

When asked after the election who might step into the spotlight, party leaders at first named some obvious choices: Republican legislative leaders and several candidates from this year’s election who ran statewide and lost.

But among the many names mentioned in various combinations, one made nearly every list: U.S. Rep. Mark Kirk of Highland Park.

Kirk weathered the national Democratic storm Tuesday, winning a fourth term to represent the 10th District, which runs along the lakeshore north of Chicago, with 53 percent of the vote. He is a Naval Reserve intelligence officer and served in Iraq, Haiti and Bosnia, as well as in four Navy tours at sea and three in Panama.

The 47-year-old congressman serves on the powerful House Appropriations Committee and was named one of the “28 Emerging Leaders in Congress” by Congressional Quarterly magazine.

“I tried to get Mark Kirk to run this time, and he wanted to stay in Congress,” former Republican Gov. Jim Edgar said several days after the election. “I thought he had the perfect profile to win statewide.”

The Tribune reports that Peter Roskam’s race is seen as a model for the future, but that the logic has some big holes.

McKenna points to Peter Roskam’s victory in the open-seat west suburban 6th Congressional District race against Democrat Tammy Duckworth as a template for the GOP’s future, investing in ground forces and targeted-household data-files to recruit voters.

“Peter Roskam demonstrates what can happen when you put the right kind of field organization in place and have a candidate who can win on the issues, even in suburban communities that have trended away from us,” McKenna said. “Now we’ve got to build that same thing across the state.”

Yet Roskam’s victory came in a longtime Republican congressional district less affected by Democratic gains than other suburban areas. The multimillion dollar cost to give Roskam an edge points to the difficulties that the GOP may face in years ahead.

Are there any other names you’d like to suggest?

  57 Comments      


Bill Brady attacks conspiracy theory as “lunacy”

Monday, Nov 13, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

Tribune columnist John Kass has endorsed radical Republican Jack Roeser’s conspiracy theory that Bill Brady ran as a spoiler candidate in the Republican gubernatorial primary last spring. Here’s what Kass wrote the other day.

…Topinka was helped when a Republican spoiler, state Sen. Bill Brady (R-Bloomington), got into the race with no chance of winning. His job was to split the anti-Judy Republican vote, ensuring Topinka would be the candidate.

But here’s what Tribune reporters Rick Pearson and John Chase wrote Sunday.

Brady has come under fire from some conservative elements who contended he played a spoiler role in the primary by taking away votes from conservative businessman James Oberweis and allowing the socially moderate Topinka to win the nomination.

“To think I would spend 120 hours a week away from my friends and family and business and invest tens of thousands of dollars on this just to be a stooge for somebody else borders on lunacy,” he said.

The problem with grand conspiracy theories is they almost never hold up to scrutiny. I can be convinced that Brady might have stayed in the race late in the game as an “Up yours” gesture to Oberweis for the way the milk magnate had treated him earlier.

But Brady most certainly did not get into the race, spend all that time and money, eat lousy food, give the same speech five times a day, shake thousands of hands, kiss countless crying stinky babies and be away from his own family purely to help Judy Baar Topinka beat Jim Oberweis.

  50 Comments      


Morning shorts

Monday, Nov 13, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Tribune: Alarmed by signs that Mayor Richard Daley is losing his iron grip on the City Council, a major business group plans to launch a campaign to defeat aldermen who don’t support him… “Under Mayor Daley’s leadership, the business community had, effectively, `one-stop shopping’ in City Hall,” the chamber stated in a presentation made at the Oct. 26 meeting of its board of directors. “Members of Chicago’s City Council were relatively complacent until recently.”

* Lt. Gov. Pat Quinn disagreed Friday with the way his boss, Gov. Rod Blagojevich, plans to distribute proceeds from a new lottery scratch-off ticket for veterans.

* Vets’ new fight: Maintaining respect

* Copley: If Gov. Rod Blagojevich’s vision comes true, millions of barrels of oil will one day be forced to the surface of southern Illinois oil fields by massive injections of carbon dioxide deep into the earth.

* Tribune: Not since Franklin D. Roosevelt scored a huge victory over Alf Landon in the 1936 presidential election have Illinois Republicans been completely shut out of statewide elected office, as well as being in the minority in the General Assembly and on the state Supreme Court.

* “The whole house has burned down. It’s not just that a gutter has fallen off or a brick is loose. What you’re facing here is a reconstruction project from the ground up,” said GOP political consultant Glenn Hodas.

* AP: In fact, if the candidates spent all $23 million they reported raising for the race, Democrat Blagojevich’s total comes out to more than $10 a vote — dwarfing Republican Topinka’s $5 per vote and Green Party candidate Whitney’s mere 9 cents a vote.

* Finke on the Green Party’s success: This raises the question of whether the Green Party will become a truly cohesive political force in Illinois or merely a vehicle for fringe candidates from all over the political spectrum to get their names on a ballot. We know plenty of people who are putting their money on the latter.

* Marin: On Tuesday night as [Topinka] was conceding defeat, I’m ashamed to admit I was staring at the magnetic blue eye shadow she had chosen to wear that evening and blurting out that repulsive Blagojevich refrain, ‘’What was she thinking?'’ I’m not proud of that.

* McQueary: The Democratic machine rocked and rolled Election Day for most of its slate — except for its Board of Review candidate, Republican Maureen Murphy.

* Daily Herald: A local conservative organization is calling for the resignation of Lake County’s Republican Party chairman, saying he’s a “master of disaster” trying to put a positive spin on poor results in last week’s elections.

* Blagojevich may see mandate, but others see hurdles for his second-term agenda

* Did Nasty NRCC Robo Calls Win Elections?

* AP: Democrats across the country owe a big chunk of their new electoral success to a nine-fingered, ballet-dancing inspiration for a “West Wing” character with a reputation as a jerk.

* Columnist says he exposed deals - Libel case finds Kane County judges, senators denying political back scratching

* Libel trial verdict no easy task for jury

* Roskam balks at hiking minimum wage

* CBS2: After losing a heated and close race this week, Tammy Duckworth says she is considering a second run at Congress in 2008.

* Sneed: “Clinton told [Duckworth] about his first run for Congress, which he lost, and how it didn’t impede his future progress,” said a Dem source. “He offered his help for whatever she wants to do next.”

* Group issues Carpentersville mayor a challenge - Carpentersville group wants discussion on illegal immigration

* Sneed hears rumbles one of the first casualties of Gov. Blagojevich’s second term may be Illinois Department of Children and Family Services chief Bryan Samuels.

* Robaugh: On Election Day, I wished my home was in Cook County so I could have cast a Peraica vote. Wednesday morning, I came to my senses.

  10 Comments      


READER COMMENTS CLOSED FOR THE WEEKEND

Friday, Nov 10, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

Get some rest.

If you just can’t tear yourself away from the blogs, make sure to spend some time at Illinoize. Bollywood Friday looks fun today.

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Winners and losers and how to come back from defeat

Friday, Nov 10, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

Eric Krol’s Friday column takes a look at winners and losers. Here are two of his losers:

Newspaper editorial boards and crusading columnists. The old-fashioned journalistic campaigns against Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich and Cook County Board President-elect Todd Stroger certainly fell flat, didn’t they? It’s going to be a long four years for print reporters covering Blagojevich.

Illinois voters. They told pollsters corruption was their top issue, then re-elected Blagojevich, whose administration is engulfed in scandal probes, and picked Stroger, whose father’s administration faces a federal probe.

Krol also tagged the Illinois Republican Party as a loser, which is pretty obvious. Chicago Sun-Times editorial page editor Steve Huntley talked to House Republican Leader Tom Cross and offers some thoughts on what the IL GOP needs to do now.

What Cross doesn’t say outright is that the social conservatives’ message won’t pass muster with the middle-of-the-road voters who constitute the majority of the Illinois electorate. Moderate voters see hard right positions opposing stem cell research and advocating the teaching of creationism in school science classes as an offensive intrusion of religious values into medical science and public education.

Teaching intelligent design in a school science lab makes as much sense as having Charles Darwin’s The Origin of Species required reading in Sunday school. Opposing embryonic stem cell research on the grounds that a microscopic collection of cells is a fully realized human being, a person, comes across as a cruel denial of medical hope to millions of people suffering chronic and fatal diseases.

The social conservatives’ objections on stem cell science hinge, of course, on abortion. They must have been jolted by the rejection of a stringent abortion ban by voters in South Dakota, a red state. Yes, many Americans have qualms about abortion, but when confronted with the uncomfortable choice of no restrictions on abortions vs. a complete government intrusion into private life, most people will opt for less government. You’d think that’s a position conservatives would understand.

Its message is a major reason that the GOP has a gender gap. Cross said the party needs to reach out to women and ethnic and minority groups.

Discuss. But do it quickly, ‘cuz later today I’ll be shutting down comments for the weekend so I can finally escape this blog.

  32 Comments      


Question of the day

Friday, Nov 10, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

Let’s do something non-partisan today and talk about a “boring” policy issue.

First, the setup:

An array of not-for-profit groups today endorsed a plan to allow county governments in Illinois to impose taxes of up to $2 per pack on cigarettes.

The plan, initiated by DuPage County Board Chairman Robert Schillerstrom, calls on state legislators to pass a law granting them the authority to tax cigarettes. Only Cook County has that power now, and it levies the full $2 per pack. […]

Metro Counties of Illinois, an association representing a dozen counties, has been spearheading a $2-per-pack tax for at least a year. But it hasn’t yet gone anywhere in the General Assembly.

But the measure now seems to be gathering steam, and is scheduled to be reviewed by a state senate committee next week.

Now, the question: Should counties be given this authority? Does this possibly open the door to other county taxation powers? Is it fair to smokers to continually force them to balance government budgets?

  74 Comments      


Blagojevich ran 22,109 TV ads, gears up for more

Friday, Nov 10, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

These numbers bring it all into focus in a major way.

Gov. Rod Blagojevich spent more than $18 million on about 22,000 television spots to secure Tuesday’s re-election victory, swamping his Republican challenger’s TV dollars almost 4-to-1 and prompting renewed calls for fundraising limits in Illinois, a market analysis indicates. […]

The firm, TSNMI/Campaign Media Analysis Group of Arlington, Va., calculates that between the March primaries and Tuesday’s election, Blagojevich bought 22,109 television spots in markets throughout Illinois, as well as St. Louis and Paducah, Ky., at an estimated cost of $18,148,050.

Topinka, with a far smaller war chest than Blagojevich’s, started her television campaign later, ultimately airing 4,638 spots, with an estimated cost of $4,636,068.

She was buried.

And the fundraising is not going to end any time soon, as my Sun-Times column explains today.

Last week, one of Governor Rod Blagojevich’s best pals told me that the governor would definitely run for a third term. […]

(I)f you thought Gov. Blagojevich would finally get down to the business of actual governance and stop with all the campaign hooplah, you’ve got another thing coming. The governor is most comfortable in campaign mode - quoting Elvis on the stump, issuing press releases announcing populist-sounding programs that aren’t actually funded, throwing sharp public elbows at those who would oppose him - and that is apparently where he’ll stay.

Wednesday, the day after the election, a group of eight “good government” groups issued a press release calling on Gov. Blagojevich “to work as hard at passing sweeping campaign reforms as he did at winning reelection.” Not gonna happen. If he really does have his mind set on a third term, then his unseemly fundraising will continue. The only difference from his first term will be that indicted pal Tony Rezko won’t be around to rake in allegedly corrupt millions.

My brain is ready to explode.

  82 Comments      


Odelson swears Stroger is a reformer *** Updated x1 ***

Friday, Nov 10, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

Election law attorney Burt Odelson played a major role in Todd Stroger’s campaign and now swears to Phil Kadner that Stroger will be a reformer.

“(H)e wasn’t going to denounce his father or the way he ran the county. Who would do that to his father? […]

“What Todd will do, I guarantee, is hire professional people and listen to their advice. I call him a Reagan Democrat. He will build a consensus across party lines.

“If (Republican) Tony Peraica had won, he wouldn’t have been able to do anything. The Democrats would have controlled a majority on the board. There would have been constant bickering. It would have been (Chicago) City Council Wars all over again.” […]

“All these big downtown law firms are making millions of dollars off the county, and that’s going to stop,” Odelson said.

“They drag out negotiations on lawsuits for months and months, collecting maybe $200,000 in fees, and then settle a case for $50,000.

“I’m going to look at all these excessive legal bills.”

I’m not exactly holding my breath, but it has been pretty funny watching the white liberal media’s shock at their candidate Tony Peraica’s thuggish election night antics. Maybe they’ll also have to admit one day that they were wrong about Todd Stroger.

*** UPDATE *** Peraica did win some Chicago wards. Glenn Hodas has provided us with a chart:

peraicawards.jpg

  27 Comments      


Maps and charts and graphs, oh my!

Friday, Nov 10, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

Glenn Hodas, a political consultant and numbers cruncher, has provided us with some nifty maps and graphs to help us understand this year’s election a little bit better. Click all the images for larger versions.

I’ve had to reduce the file sizes to make the images load better on the Internet, but if you want to see the maps, etc. in all their high-rez glory, just head over to Glenn’s website and find his contact information. I’m sure he’ll do whatever he can to help

First, a color-coded statewide map gives us the intensity of the vote for governor…
GenElectMapMedium.jpg

If you want to see a much bigger statewide map, click on this image…
2006GenElectMap.jpg

Next up, a bar graph that gives us the governor’s race head-to-head percentages by region…
GuvHeadHeadByRegion.jpg

This pie chart will give you a very clear picture of how each region turned out on Tuesday…
GuvVoteByRegion.jpg

And here’s a county map that shows the same thing…
GuvTurnout.jpg

This bar graph shows how each of the statewide Democratic candidates did against each other…
TotalVoteDemCandidate.jpg

The chart below shows how the treasurer candidates did by region…
TreasH2HbyRegion.jpg

OK, back to the governor’s race. The following charts show how the suburban vote changed from 2002 (Rod Blagojevich vs. Jim Ryan) to 2006. Notice that the Republican numbers dropped in every case.

DuPage…
2002vs2006DUPAGE.jpg

Kane…
2002vs2006KANE.jpg

Lake…
2002vs2006LAKE.jpg

McHenry…
2002vs2006MCHENRY.jpg

Will…
2002vs2006WILL.jpg

  15 Comments      


Morning shorts

Friday, Nov 10, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Old-line Illinois Republicans wear the jacket, but the White House was apparently part of the cabal. Peter Fizgerald on the appointment of New Yorker Patrick Fitzgerald as US Attorney in Chicago: “Karl Rove called back and said we will not appoint anyone from out of state. We’ll let you pick anyone you want, as long as that person is from Chicago.”

* Daily Herald: Oberweis said it’ll take some time, but Republicans can take back their party. He said having local committeemen work hard in precincts by going door to door and welcoming fresh faces would be a good start. “We have many (committeemen) who have been around a very long time and who try to keep out new ideas, new volunteers and new candidates who will challenge the system,” Oberweis said.

* Minimum wage hike ‘first order of business’ for Blagojevich

* Illinois behind on paying for cleanup of gasoline-leak sites

* Duckworth says future run for office a possibility

* ComEd rivals in no rush to compete in Illinois

* At 80, is Chief Illiniwek ready to retire?

* Rahm Seeks Caucus Chair Post

* Friday Beer Blogging: Dem Sweep Edition

* Too Bushed to Bash Both

* RTA has big plans — if the money’s there

* Editorial: Big ideas, little money

*

  17 Comments      


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