Capitol - Your Illinois News Radar » DCCC makes costly error; Schock can’t see writing on the wall
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
DCCC makes costly error; Schock can’t see writing on the wall

Monday, Sep 29, 2008

* The DCCC made a pretty stupid mistake when it waited until just the other day tot release these relatively (in campaign terms) ancient poll numbers

A Global Strategy Group poll conducted August 17-19 of 400 likely voters with a 4.9% margin of error shows Dan Seals within striking distance of Congressman Mark Kirk 39%-46% with 14% undecided. After voters are informed with each candidates’ message and bio, Dan Seals comes out ahead 45%-40%.

At the presidential level, Illinois Senator Barack Obama leads the district 51%-36% over Senator John McCain. President Bush’s approval rating in the district is an abysmal 21%.

“Republican Congressman Kirk is clearly extremely vulnerable for voting with his Republican leadership 88% of the time,” said DCCC Midwest Regional Press Secretary Ryan Rudominer.

* Kirk’s campaign released its own poll two weeks ago which showed him with a 22-point lead.

* That poll prompted Charlie Cook to downgrade the Democratic challenger’s prospects from “tossup” to “lean Republican”…

While we still expect Kirk’s lead in polling to close between now and Election Day as Democratic voters “come home,” it is notable that he appears to maintain a significant lead against 2006 Democratic nominee Dan Seals.

Unlike some of his perennially targeted peers, Kirk has been aggressive in going after his opponent early on in the general election campaign. He has leveraged his financial edge over Seals to run ads accusing the Democrat of wanting to raise the capital gains tax and holding a subsidized-gas stunt in the district that clogged traffic and earned a police fine. For his part, Seals will label Kirk as a pro-war Bush ally who is out of touch on the economy and in the pocket of big oil.

Republican polling showing a 20 point gap in this race paints a picture that is likely to fade over the next few weeks, as Democrats ramp up their attacks on Kirk and Seals has more of a chance to tie himself to Obama. But Kirk has run an impressive campaign to date, and has put more distance between his own standing and that of the top of the GOP ticket than we expected. This race is still highly competitive, but for now, it moves back to the Lean Republican column.

That won’t help at all.

* Meanwhile, GOP congressional frontrunner Aaron Schock is still having trouble with that Bush fundraising issue…

State Rep. Aaron Schock’s campaign manager said Friday that if U.S. Sen. Barack Obama’s presidential campaign pays the local costs of police and fire protection during a visit to Springfield last month, then they might consider doing the same for Peoria.

Might consider?

Considering that Springfield is billing Obama’s campaign for a public event that could be attended by anyone for free (unlike Schock’s purely private event that charged an admission price), Schock may have to do more than maybe consider a refund…

A city of Springfield spokesman said the city, behind a policy of Mayor Tim Davlin, will charge Obama’s presidential campaign approximately $50,000 for a visit to the Capitol City on Aug. 23 to announce that Sen. Joe Biden, D-Del., would be his running mate.

* And there was more on the Bush visit in today’s Peoria paper

Police Chief Steven Settingsgaard got his picture taken with President George W. Bush in July, when the president attended a fundraiser at Angus Weaver Farm in support of state Rep. Aaron Schock, who is running for Congress. […]

What we’re not sure about, though, is whether the chief paid the $5,000 asking price for the picture, if he got to keep the photograph for free, or if he even walked off with a photograph. Plus, who was “they?” He declined to answer follow-up questions we had about the picture.

Regardless of the merits of reimbursing the city, this has become a political no-brainer.

* More roundups…

* Ill. congressional candidate capitalizing on Obama

* Congressional ad battle focuses on George Bush

* Bill to block CN buy fails in House

* Bean, Greenberg share economic goals

* Cook Report Downgrades Dan Seals [With Seals TV ad]

- Posted by Rich Miller        

  1. - Shore - Monday, Sep 29, 08 @ 12:19 pm:

    Kirk is going to have a really tough race up here, and I am a long time supporter of his. He’s not around a lot and there are a lot of people that think he’s gone Washington. If Obama continues to heat up it will be interesting to see if he can hold it off, but this is definitely not blowout city, and that pollster doesn’t have a golden track record.

  2. - VanillaMan - Monday, Sep 29, 08 @ 12:21 pm:

    Schock has allowed a non-issue to become a stumbling block. Under no circumstances should any candidate expect their neighbors to pick up expenses incurred during their campaign.

    It doesn’t matter who is technically correct, if a candidate wishes to gain the votes of constitutents, they are to ensure that those whose votes they wish to gain are not paying any costs generated by that campaign.

    Otherwise, don’t expect anyone to vote for you!

  3. - Vote Quimby! - Monday, Sep 29, 08 @ 12:35 pm:

    Is Schock this clueless? I agree with VanillaMan– this could and should have been resolved long ago with a simple check and he would be rolling into Washington. Like Rich said, comparing Obama’s free public visit to Springfield and Bush’s by-appointment-only photo op and handshake are apples and oranges. Or, for more current analogy, comparing credit default swaps to Treasury bonds. I’m all for new blood in politics, but haggling over things like this can do absolutely no good for a campaign, especially one raising this much money.

  4. - Spinning Out of Control - Monday, Sep 29, 08 @ 12:42 pm:

    {After voters are informed with each candidates’ message and bio, Dan Seals comes out ahead 45%-40%.}

    Their biggest mistake would be suggesting that voters in one of the most highly educated district’s in the country are stupid. “Let’s see, once we have one of these people on the phone we will paint horns on Kirk, position him somewhere in the Bush family tree, and then gauge voters opinion again and see if we like that result better; and if so, then publish it.

    This push polling data no doubt enjoyed selective release in an effort to influence fund raising. Receptive, but not yet contributing or maximized partisans can be naive and easily manipulated with efforts like this.

    Where are the cross-tabs however? Those answering the phone and participating in the survey aside, the average voter in this district is just simply not that stupid to be manipulated in the same way.

    {For his part, Seals will label Kirk as a pro-war Bush ally who is out of touch on the economy and in the pocket of big oil.}

    It is no secret within the district that Kirk continues to serve in the U.S. Naval reserve, and performs his duties at the Pentagon in Washington, while the rest of the do nothing congress takes its weekend breaks and vacation. Even if they disagree with the war, most district voters (except the far out loonies) respect Kirk’s additional service to the country in this regard. Kirk has also been an outspoken critic of certain aspects of the prosecution of the war, even taking his criticism face to face with both Bush and Rumsfeld, and this is pretty well known in the district as well.

    As far as being painted as a “friend of” or “in the pocket of” big oil, good luck with that one. When BP wanted to make changes to its Whiting, Indiana refinery so it could process much more Canadian crude oil. To do that however BP also sought permits to discharge higher amounts of ammonia and other chemicals into Lake Michigan from the Whiting refinery.

    Kirk took the lead on opposing this effort almost immediately, and almost single handedly defeated it, while other congressional reps with districts along Illinois Lake Michigan lakefront sat idle and did almost nothing to help this effort.

    We already have all kinds of boobs in this area like Suffredin and Shakowsky, that talk the talk all day long to anyone that will listen, but when it comes actually walking the walk, they often come up lame.

    While Cook hedges his bets somewhat (considering he has a lot more territory and other races to cover) and can’t be expected to know everything about a single race, I would have thought by now that even he had figured out that Kirk is highly respected in the district, and Dan Seals (v. 2.0) may have less chance this time around than even last time, despite his home state (vote for me I look just like Obama) campaign that seems completely bereft of original thought. Nowhere else is this more poignantly displayed than his failure to even bother moving into the district for the re-match.

  5. - Skeeter - Monday, Sep 29, 08 @ 12:58 pm:

    With regard to Schock —

    At risk of sounding too partisan, Schock is completely unfit for Congress and his handling of this is more evidence. He is “Illinoi-ese” for “Palin.” He just does not have a clue. From his China comments to this we are left wondering: Does he do any research before speaking? Does he even care?

    He is going to win because the district will favor the GOP, but the real Skeeter — a 100 pound German Shep. — would do a better job in Congress than Schock. At least the Germ. Shep. would know how to keep his mouth shut when necessary.

  6. - Dennis P - Monday, Sep 29, 08 @ 1:09 pm:

    @Spinning out of control

    Kirk did not take any lead in fighting BP. He went out in a rowboat and held a press conference. Eddie Vedder did more to fight BP with his song at lollapalooza. And in the end, isn’t BP expanding the plant anyway? Kirk is a master at the appearance of action.

    Oh, and a master at appearing to reside here, when he hasn’t actually lived in the district since he first worked for Rep. Porter.

  7. - Spinning Out of Control - Monday, Sep 29, 08 @ 1:33 pm:

    Dennis P;

    Perhaps the EPA should have been there to take air samples at La La pallooz A.

    We already know the dangers of second hand smoke. Hopefully your company has no random testing procedure however, because good luck to you if your lotto ball pops up for that one. The effects of the air quality on you from the musical mayhem event seem almost to the point of being of the first hand variety. The Clinton defense on inhallation has already been tried before, so you will have to become more creative. Maybe Eddie Vedder could use another “roadie” however if your number pops up.

    The issue with BP; was not the expansion of the refinery, but rather the application for permits to dump exponentially more hazardous chemicals into Lake Michigan. The applications for the increased dumping into the lake was withdrawn as a direct surrender to actions that Kirk put into motion after this aspect of the expansion was discovered ( and before it was even publicly announced). Expansion is good for job creation; except when it threatens the environment, especially the source of our drinking water. That same water is used to make the Kool Aid too. Take a lesson from Jonestown however and when someone tells you the punch is not that good, then opt for something a little less bitter and that won’t be as damaging in the longer term.

    As for residency; Kirk not only lives in the district, but just as importanlty he pays his share of property taxes to help finance the school districts where the children of the voters he represents attend school as well.

    Dan Seals either has no level of awareness of how voters perceive the residency issue; or he does not care. Either way, he will suffer at the ballot box as a result. Don’t worry though, because the local residency issue will only be a fraction of the total margin of defeat.

  8. - charles in charge - Monday, Sep 29, 08 @ 1:41 pm:

    So Schock now takes his cues from Obama?

    It’s pretty funny how, while the national GOP tries to paint Obama as “born of the corrupt Chicago machine,” etc., its own Congessional hopeful is waiting around to see what Obama does to find out which way the ethical winds are blowing.

  9. - SangamoGOP - Monday, Sep 29, 08 @ 2:11 pm:

    Maybe Schock’s campaign manager could’ve issued a statement that indicated when Congressman Weller actually voted for or against the economic rescue plan, Aaron would pay the bill. Ooops. Can’t do that, Weller and Schock share a campaign manager.

  10. - Just My Opinion - Monday, Sep 29, 08 @ 2:54 pm:

    All of my life, my politics have slanted slightly to the GOP, still mostly voting for the person. I was a fan of Bob Michel and Ray LaHood. I will NEVER cast a vote for Schock. He’s too wet behind the ears and if he is starting out even before being elected trying to dodge a major issue like reimbursing a city in his own district for the expense of police protection at a fundraiser and he can’t understand why he needs to do that, then every single person in this district needs to vote for Colleen Callahan. She has much more experience and way more years on her. I for one would welcome a change of both party and gender for this position.

  11. - wordslinger - Monday, Sep 29, 08 @ 4:04 pm:

    Schock’s not ready for prime time.

    The DCCC poll release is pathetic. It might as well have been taken in August 2007.

  12. - ConservativeVeteran - Monday, Sep 29, 08 @ 4:09 pm:

    Rep. Kirk should run as a Democrat. His latest rating from Gun Owners of America is 0%, and his latest rating from Planned Parenthood is 100%. He voted against an amendment that would have banned gay marriage. In May 2007, when 11 republican congressmen went to the White and told President Bush that they opposed the Iraq surge, Kirk was their leader.

  13. - EmptySuitParade - Monday, Sep 29, 08 @ 5:47 pm:

    There is no comparison between the Obama and Mr. Dreamy events…..Schock even kept the media at arms length at his political fundraising on private farm. Obama invited the world and had it in the middle of town….Write the check Aaron, write the check.
    BTW how would have voted on the Wall Street bailout?

  14. - Little Egypt - Monday, Sep 29, 08 @ 11:44 pm:

    BTW, has anyone noticed that in the ad Schock is running with the giant windmills, NOT one of them is moving and producing one single KW of energy.

  15. - Fan of the Game - Tuesday, Sep 30, 08 @ 8:29 am:

    Shock should bite the bullet and pay the bill. Is the bad press worth $38,000?

Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.

* Reader comments closed for the weekend
* Question of the day
* School has kid slapped with felony eavesdropping charge
* AG Madigan to file lawsuit challenging "cruel and unconstitutional policy" at southern border
* Rep. Andersson tries a comeback
* CTU's Lewis to retire
* *** UPDATED x2 *** Rauner brags he's "dramatically" reduced Medicaid enrollment, but hit on "failing" computer system
* Fitch: "The enacted budget entails significant implementation risk"
* *** UPDATED x2 - Pritzker campaign calls comments "racist" *** After Black Caucus backlash, Gov. Rauner says he's "Not surprised they're sensitive because the black legislators really have not been serving their community very well"
* Rep. Chad Hays to resign
* The local news memory hole
* No Janus ruling today
* Police chiefs want Rauner to veto hemp bill
* *** UPDATED x1 - Rauner campaign responds *** New Pritzker TV ad blames Rauner for job losses to neighboring states
* Yesterday's stories

Visit our advertisers...






* SVM EDITORIAL: Let schools, not state, determin.....
* School districts nervous about possible $40000 .....
* Gov. Rauner's legacy rests with the US Supr.....
* Morrison says there's no room in budget to .....
* Illinois police chiefs speak out against legali.....
* Black Illinois Lawmakers and Gov. Rauner Contin.....
* Is Melania Trump rising to Evita status?..
* Gov. Rauner on the future of Illinois, NAFTA, &.....
* The Week in Review: Immigration Debate Explodes.....
* Rauner: Black Legislators Not Serving Their Com.....

* EXCHANGE: Marengo families seeking normalcy year after blast
* EXCHANGE: Students find second Fort Kaskaskia site
* Man convicted of escaping ICE custody at NYC airport
* Man convicted in slayings of 2 officers released on bond
* The Latest: Man convicted in slayings of 2 officers released
* Chicago Teachers Union president stepping down
* Man gets 8 years for kidnapping 2 brothers later slain
* Illinois bridge put on National Register of Historic Places
* Ex-priest who abused child allowed access to Chicago schools
* WHAT'S HAPPENING: Trump order sows confusion on the border

* Illinois stands to gain from Supreme Court decision
* Records: Mansion used in Rauner's 'Porcelain Prince' ad got its own tax reduction
* Illinois politicians seek answers to family separations at border
* 80+ years later, Meredosia woman sees the opening of another new bridge
* Chatham man wins Illinois Bicentennial coin design contest
* Rauner to consider allowing medical cannabis for opioid patients
* Bipartisan work yields gun bills, fate rests with Rauner
* Rauner names Justin Blandford curator of Governor's Mansion
* Rauner names Williamsville woman interim HFS director
* Both Rauner and Pritzker have donated to Mansion renovations

* Mariano's parent buys turnaround time
* Trump's tariff tweet spurs consternation at local car dealerships
* Illinois' existential problem: Shrinking number of young people
* Chicago set for another big TV year
* Chicago manufacturer automates—then hires

* Man charged with murder in fatal Near North Side crash
* Man caught in crossfire in Roseland
* 5 shot on South Side
* Woman, 21, shot in South Chicago
* 14-year-old girl reported missing from Palmer Square: police
* Dear Abby: 2 women in their 20s depend on dad for rides
* Man shot in face in Lawndale
* Horoscope for June 23, 2018
* Seeing Red: Cubs lose again to last-place Cincinnati
* Man sues MLB, Toronto Blue Jays after being hit by flying bat at White Sox game

* U.S. House passes bipartisan package to fight opioid crisis
* White House seeks to expand immigrant family detention
* Servais: Who was that mustachioed man?
* Supreme Court adopts digital-age privacy rules to track cellphones
* Cubs offense sputters and Jose Quintana ineffective in 6-3 loss to Reds
* Blackhawks draft defensemen Adam Boqvist and Nicolas Beaudin in first round
* White Sox hold on for 6-4 win to split doubleheader vs. A's
* Elgin man charged after pot, guns, 480 rounds of ammo found during raid, police say
* Michael Cohen's photo with Tom Arnold fuels Trump tape speculation
* I lost because I wasn't Trump enough. All Republicans should worry.

» ‘That’s A Sad Woman’: Struggling Lincoln Foundation To Sell Monroe, Sandburg Photos
» The Week in Review: Immigration Debate Explodes in Chicago
» Rauner: Black Legislators Not Serving Their Community
» State Week: Online Sales Taxes; CPS Scandal; Rauner Takes On Black Caucus
» WBEZ’s Chicago And Illinois News Roundup: June 22, 2018
» Jurors Get Close-Up View Of Chicago Politics In Probes Of Shootings By Cops
» Ailing Chicago Teachers Union President Karen Lewis Retiring
» Rebecca Makkai, Author Of ‘The Great Believers’; Crowded Starved Rock; Illinois Outdoor Destinations
» Cook County To Hire Sexual Harassment Watchdog
» #656 Hinds & Opinions on Beyoncé and Jay-Z, Parquet Courts & More

* George Will: Charles Krauthammer, a diagnostician of our public discontents
* Ed Rogers: Democrats still have no message on the economy or jobs
* Point: Obamacare's constitutionality ends when its tax ends
* Counterpoint: Injustice reigns as Trump's Justice Department attacks Obamacare
* Juliana Stratton: Black community wants more than just proclamations from leaders
* Thumbs Up: To Illiopolis boy for helping shepherd bill through the Statehouse
* Illinois stands to gain from Supreme Court decision
* Records: Mansion used in Rauner's 'Porcelain Prince' ad got its own tax reduction
* Our View: A welcome start at cleaning House
* Our View: White Oaks Mall smart to diversify offerings

* Births for Saturday, June 23, 2018
* Deborah S. 'Debbie' Trigg
* Birt 'Buzz' Ward
* Virginia Leach
* Billy Ray Mathews
* Edwardsville man charged with producing, distributing child porn
* The 64th Piatt County Trail Blazers Rodeo
* Granite City teacher resigns amid allegations of a relationship with a student
* Bio Blitz time at Nahant Marsh
* KWQC's Gary Metivier: 'I will never retire from telling stories'

* AP source: Thunder's Anthony to opt in, take $28 million
* Giolito helps White Sox snap eight-game losing streak
* Blackhawks take pair of defensemen on first day of NHL draft
* Boomers rally to top Wild Things
* Ex-S. Korean premier Kim Jong-pil, spy agency founder, dies

* Lake County's congressional leaders we...
* Lawmakers, Human Rights Groups React to Tr...
* Victims' families take plea to White H...
* 'Zero Tolerance' Policy Shows Niel...
* Pro-life groups have an obligation to call...
* House passes Farm Bill by two votes
* Roskam navigates immigration uproar as riv...
* The GOP-led House has narrowly passed the ...
* Area congressmen back narrowly passed Hous...
* With Defeat of Goodlatte Bill is Ag Guest ...

* Chicago group says finding minors' fam......
* Democrats should stop playing political fo......
* “We're On A Scavenger Hunt”: Reuniting......
* Pulse of the Voters: The increasing influe......
* Retailers Cheer Supreme Court Ruling On On......

* Pulse of the Voters: The increasing influe......
* Tammy Duckworth TV Commercials Ads...
* Mazie Hirono, Tammy Duckworth, and ......
* Canadian Minister Breastfeeds During Parli......
* Democratic senators blast DeVos for mishan......

* High-minded ideals to do battle against the “red wave” – will anybody win?
* World Cup Notebook: Ronaldo Is The King Of The World
* Elonorail
* The Beachwood Radio Sports Hour #206: Bulls Draft Safe And Sound
* How to Create Successful and sustainable Makerspaces in Low-Income and Rural Schools
* Can Online Programs and Digital Tools Help Students Spend Less Money? #DLNchat
* Pearson Releases Study on Demand-Driven Education
* A Major Issue in Business Law: Regulators Gone Wild — Judicial Support for a Roll-Back?
* Trustees add five initiatives to Purdue strategic plan – Purdue
* Final Day of the International Conference on E-Learning in the Workplace Conference at Columbia University

* Chairman Fratianni selected for national workers' comp leadership role
* Unemployment Rate Continues Falling in All Metro Areas

* Nokia 5.1 is now available to pre-order
* You might break someone’s jaw if you throw the Panasonic Toughbook FZ-T1 at them
* Say hello to the ultra-slim Asus Chromebook C223
* Moto Z3 Play in Brazil has 6GB RAM configuration
* vivo product is the first to get Qualcomm 5G millimeter wave antennas
* Security Researcher Discovers Method for Brute Forcing iPhone Passcode in iOS 11
* Supreme Court rules cops need a warrant to get phone location data

* White Sox Minor League Report: June 22, 2018
* Mieses' single leads AZL White Sox to 9-3 win over AZL C...
* A's split doubleheader against White Sox
* After ending skid, White Sox pursue another win over A's
* White Sox Minor League Report: June 22, 2018
* White Sox Minor League Report: June 22, 2018
* Lucas Giolito's best stuff rescues White Sox from grueli...

Main Menu
Pundit rankings
Subscriber Content
Blagojevich Trial
Updated Posts

June 2018
May 2018
April 2018
March 2018
February 2018
January 2018
December 2017
November 2017
October 2017
September 2017
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005


RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0

Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller