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Watson released from hospital

Wednesday, Oct 22, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Good news

The Illinois Senate’s top Republican has been released from the hospital after suffering a stroke. […]

Senator Christine Radogno said Wednesday that [Senate Republican Leader Frank Watson] is undergoing rehabilitation and that his speech has been affected somewhat.

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Not so deep thoughts

Wednesday, Oct 22, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* I can clearly remember a time when nobody ever asked me if I thought the governor was insane.

* If someone gave me a $150,000 clothing and accessories allowance, I’d buy Krugerrands and claim they were the latest cufflink fashion.

* Thank goodness there’s no refund law in Illinois.

* Planning a Christmas vacation around the US Attorney’s work schedule has turned out to be a daunting task.

* Is Michael just gonna run through every name in the world as possible appointees to Obama’s seat so she can say she had the scoop?

* Anybody wanna buy a newspaper chain? Cheap?

Your turn.

  63 Comments      


The fall tour

Wednesday, Oct 22, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* You’ve already seen this, but I’m giving you a friendly reminder. The event is tomorrow…

* Next week, I’ll be at the Union League Club

Date: Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Start Time: 7:30 AM
End Time: 9:30 AM
Price: $20.00 (Inclusive)
Walk-in Price: $25.00
Sponsored By: Public Affairs
Location: Crystal Room

Description: As voters in Illinois and across the nation prepare to go to the polls on November 4, the Public Affairs Committee invites you to join us for a special “General Election Prognostication.” The program will feature two of our state’s leading political analysts who will provide their insights into key races just before Illinois voters go to the polls. Our panelists include:

• Rich Miller, Editor/Publisher of Illinois’ foremost political newsletter, Capitol Fax

• Paul Green, Director of the Institute for Politics and Professor of Political Science at Roosevelt University

The moderator of the Breakfast@65West series is Chris Robling, a member of the ULCC Public Affairs Committee whose 25-year professional career includes extensive experience in media, government, public relations and politics.

Dress Code: Business Casual

Cancellation due by Monday, October 27, 2008.

To reserve by phone call (312) 435-5946.

I think I run the state’s only political newsletter. Not too difficult, therefore, to be the “foremost” in the bunch.

Also, they enforce that dress code. Take it from me.

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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Hoffman; Forby; Dunn; Mulligan; Schock; Money; Peterson; Krause; SDems; (Use all caps in password)

Wednesday, Oct 22, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Question of the day

Wednesday, Oct 22, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

“If you ___________ then you might be a hardcore partisan.”

Keep it light, please, and have some fun.

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Congressional roundup

Wednesday, Oct 22, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson has released a new poll

A poll paid for by Halvorson shows her leading Ozinga 48 percent to 29 percent, with Green Party candidate Jason Wallace at 5 percent. The poll of 400 likely voters was conducted Oct. 10 to Oct. 13. The margin of error was plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. The campaign released only a one-page summary of the results.

That tracks pretty closely with a Progress Illinois poll releaed Monday that had Halvorson ahead 50-29.

* Ozinga response…

Ozinga’s campaign said its polling shows a tighter race for the 11th Congressional District seat but declined to release numbers. Ozinga campaign manager Andy Sere noted Halvorson is still at or under 50 percent in the polls despite major spending on advertising by her campaign and interest groups.

* Ozinga was endorsed by yet another newspaper. This time, it was the Bloomington Pantagraph

The Pantagraph Editorial Board endorses Marty Ozinga because his businesslike approach to government would best serve this district — and the nation.

* Democratic congressional hopeful Scott Harper, who is up against Republican Rep. Judy Biggert, released part of his own poll, but not the head to heads. Instead, he leaked the Barack Obama numbers

The poll, done Oct. 9 to 11 by Fako & Associates, showed Obama ahead of McCain in the district 47 percent to 40 percent. The margin of error was plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

Fako is a good pollster, and those numbers track fairly with what I’ve been seeing in the region. McCain has tanked.

* Response…

Biggert campaign manager John Noak scoffed at the limited release, saying he is “very confident in the congresswoman’s polling that she is leading by a substantial amount.” The

* Democrat Colleen Callahan has a new ad that blasts GOP state Rep. Aaron Schock in their congressional race. It doesn’t look like a game changer to me, but see for yourself…


Schock has a new TV ad featuring Democratic state Rep. Susana Mendoza, but it’s not online yet.

* The Tribune endorsed Schock, Foster and Judy Biggert today.

* Dem Congresscritter Bill Foster has what appears to be his postive closer up on the air…


* Related…

* Governor replaces 2 election board members

* Candidates to replace Weller bring in big names for fundraising boost

* 14th District candidates offer views on energy issues

  16 Comments      


More lousy news

Wednesday, Oct 22, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* More Tribune poll numbers were released today

A quarter of respondents to a Tribune poll say they or a relative lost a job in the last year, and half fear it could happen to them or a family member in the next 12 months.

Among poll respondents, unemployment is the chief economic concern (36 percent), followed by stock market values and general price increases (each with 20 percent).

* More

Two in five say they are worse off than a year ago. Half say they will cut back on holiday spending this year—and only 1 in 100 say they will spend more on gifts.

* Drill down and there are some more depressing results. Here are the results for respondents who named the economy as the most or next most thing they were worried about…

* The fear of losing their job or of someone in their immediate family losing a job…

* Family financial situation vs. a year ago…

Check out the response from suburbanites and you can see why the Illinois Republicans are starting to freak out right now.

* Related…

* Early voting smashing records

  16 Comments      


Message to commenters

Wednesday, Oct 22, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

It’s the height of the election season, so emotions are naturally running high just about everywhere, including, occasionally, in the comment section here.

The vast majority of commenters at this blog are bright, witty and truly interesting people. We have developed the best comment section in the business, bar none.

But elections bring in new readers and commenters and I had to delete about two dozen comments yesterday for being way over the top, harsh, even profane. Many of them were from the same people posting over and over again. Most were new commenters who’ve stopped by for the election coverage. Some of those people are now banned. For life.

You have freedom of speech in public spaces, but I control my blog. It’s my blog and my rules. I try to keep this space as free and open as possible, but in the end this place ain’t a democracy. Also, whining about deletions will not help.

Please, everybody take a deep breath and attempt to be civil. Leave the despicable national campaign talking points out of comments, try to keep an open mind and be decent to each other.

I’m busier than usual because of the frenetic pace of the campaign season, so I freely admit that I’m a bit grumpy as well. Don’t push it.

Remember, we’re all gonna be around long after this campaign is over. Getting yourself banned now means you’ll be locked out of the future here.

Again, I love my readers and my commenters. But please try extra hard to keep a lid on the emotions from here on out.

Thanks.

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Lisa Madigan on the stump

Wednesday, Oct 22, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Attorney General Lisa Madigan was in southern Illinois yesterday. The Southern Illinoisan highlights her work for Paul Simon and his encouragement of her to run for public office. But her father, AG Madigan noted, wasn’t exactly thrilled when she told him of her intentions to run for the Illinois Senate…

After several minutes of sitting with his head in his hands, [Speaker Madigan] finally replied.

“He looked up and simply asked me, ‘Why?’” Madigan said.

* And this is kind of a cute story

When Mike Madigan entered the life of his would-be stepdaughter, he forgot to bring the ice cream.

Lisa Madigan, then 10 years old, thought Mike seemed like “a nice enough guy” but she didn’t fully understand what it was he did in the state legislature.

All she knew was that her mom’s last boyfriend had owned two ice cream parlors.

“Quite frankly, when I first met him, I was disappointed,” Lisa Madigan said Tuesday evening.

* The Daily Egyptian has this quote high up in its piece…

When asked by an audience member in the packed Hiram H. Lesar Law Building Auditorium whether the audience would see her as a candidate for governor in 2010, Madigan’s response was short but to the point.

“You might,” she said to the audience’s applause.

From the looks of things, she’s already started campaigning.

* Comptroller Dan Hynes is also on a tour

People from the community listened to Comptroller Dan Hynes who accused Illinois of not paying its share of Medicaid costs. Many of the attendees are on Medicaid and cannot find doctors or dentits in Rockford who will see them. Instead they are having to drive to Chicago or Moline to find a physician who will accept their Medicaid card. Paulette Mattson suspects the state doesn’t realize the extent of the problem.

“Show the state more cause they’re so unaware of really what’s going on cause they don’t need Medicare. Take all your officials, put them on Medicare or Medicaid, see what happens.”

More here.

Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias is also out on the hustings.

  39 Comments      


Morning shorts

Wednesday, Oct 22, 2008 - Posted by Kevin Fanning

* More Illinois schools fail to meet No Child goals

However, an analysis of the data finds 39 percent of Illinois public school districts failing to make adequate yearly progress this year, compared with 28 percent in 2007.

Statewide, 31 percent of schools failed to meet NCLB targets on student reading and math tests, compared with 24 percent in 2007.

* More Illinois schools fail to meet No Child Left Behind goals

* Middle School Teachers May Have to Go Back to School

The Chicago Board of Education will vote on a new policy today that would force many middle school teachers to pay for an additional credential.

* CPS Employees Indicted for Engaging in Paycheck Scheme

* Assessor’s tax-relief idea a ’stunt’: Daley

* Mayor reverses on who’s to blame

Two years ago, Mayor Daley accepted his share of responsibility and offered to “apologize to anyone” for the torture of suspects by Jon Burge — even as he argued that the ultimate responsibility rests with the Chicago Police Department.

On Tuesday, the mayor changed his tune.

* Aldermen want Burge to pay back pension

* After decades of accusations, Burge finally faces charges

* Cook County judge still faces claims in torture case

Cook County Judge Dennis Dernbach is the last remaining defendant in the multi-million dollar lawsuits that four alleged torture victims brought against the city and county.

The lawsuits claim murder confessions were coerced by former Chicago Police Cmdr. Jon Burge and his officers.

* Fitzgerald Announces Burge Indictment

* Burge indictment was a good day for justice

* Feds catch up with Burge

The perjury and obstruction of justice counts against Burge mark the first criminal charges in the long-running scandal. But a dozen or more officers once under Burge’s command who have denied under oath taking part in the alleged torture could be in legal peril as well.

The indictment of the 60-year-old Burge breathes new life into a scandal that has had a stubborn hold on the Police Department and the city and involves claims of abuse—electric shock, Russian roulette and suffocation with bags and typewriter covers. The allegations continue to figure prominently in the appeals of dozens of inmates.

* Daley stands firm on 2009 budget cuts

“You have to balance your budget. These are difficult times. … I’d like to have more policemen. I’d like to have all of these things. Sure. Everybody would. If you ask any citizen, they’d like to have it. But, next year is gonna be worse than this year. We have to be realistic.”

* Investing in Low-Income Communities

* Salt price hikes worry suburbs

* Governments offered bargains on surplus goods

Local government and non-profit agencies will learn how to purchase state and federal surplus items at deep discounts during an event at Shawnee Community College Friday.

* The Illinois Technology Partnership is giving away iPhones

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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax

Wednesday, Oct 22, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Point by point

Tuesday, Oct 21, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* I can’t believe I forgot to post my weekly syndicated newspaper column. Guess what? It’s about the constitutional convention

There are many arguments against voting for a constitutional convention next month. I thought I’d try to address some of those arguments today.

Illinoisans are asked every 20 years whether they want to call a constitutional convention. I firmly believe our gridlocked, broken state government is in such desperate need of change and reform that a “yes” vote is blatantly self evident.

The points below are taken directly from the Web site of the Alliance to Protect the Illinois Constitution. APIC is funded mainly by big business and labor unions.

APIC: The cost of a convention is predicted to approach at least $80 million at a time when the state is running budget deficits and having a tough time funding schools and roads.

Response: The cost could be far lower, but that’s not the point. The current constitution has a huge loophole that allows for those big budget deficits. And there is no plan to fund schools and roads because too much power is far too concentrated in the hands of a few people who have been fighting each other for years. A constitutional convention could address those absolutely crucial issues. It’s worth every dime.

APIC: There is no question there has been too much inaction and infighting in Springfield. But it’s the politicians, not the system, who are at fault. The best way to deal with political issues and address problems in state government is to pick new elected officials, not tinker with a proven document full of protections for people’s rights.

Response: The truth is the powerful interest groups that are funding this push against a constitutional convention also have been responsible for bankrolling those very same politicians’ campaigns. Also, since the parties in power totally control the legislative redistricting process, politicians end up choosing their voters, not the other way around.

APIC: A constitutional convention opens the door to more political mischief. The General Assembly, by law, gets to decide how a constitutional convention would be run. And the constitution is unclear about who would get to pick delegates to a constitutional convention, voters or politicians in Springfield. Regardless, special interests and single-issue groups would fight to get their people sent to the convention to advance their own narrow agendas.

Response: The constitution is very clear about who chooses delegates: The voters. Also, it’s quite ironic that the special interests funding APIC are worried about special interests getting involved in delegate elections.

APIC: Scheduling a convention for 2010 would give politicians a pass to do nothing until then to address the state’s problems. There will be primary and general elections between now and the time a new constitution would even go into effect. Those elections are the best way to bring about real change and pressure elected officials into action.

Response: My own belief is politicians will be so frightened at what a constitutional convention might do to them that they’ll try to correct some of the state’s problems, such as public employee pensions, before the delegates ever are seated. I think that’s as likely as the other side’s argument. Nothing is certain, but the anti-constitutional convention folks sure act like it.

APIC: Illinois cannot afford more discord and distractions. Some groups are calling for a state convention because they want to push their own agendas. There are too many crucial everyday concerns that need attention to get stuck on a long, divisive debate on such issues.

Response: What the heck is wrong with debates? The reality is the Statehouse too often deliberately stifles real debates on issues of concern to real voters. Plus, there are hardly any “major” groups pushing for a convention. Almost all the money and all the power is against a convention.

APIC: The uncertainty of a constitutional convention more than two years away could make it very difficult to attract and retain businesses and jobs at a time when the state’s economy already is struggling. Our neighbors offer certainty and stability to businesses we would lose by asking companies to gamble on us.

Response: Illinois is the laughingstock of the nation when it comes to attracting and retaining businesses and jobs. A constitutional convention might offer some much-needed encouragement to out-of-state business owners that change is on the way.

I’m out of space. I’ll have more next week.

Thoughts?

…Adding… In case you missed the notice below….

Be there or be square.

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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - PART 2 - Schock; Mendoza; Smith; Mitchell; Bivins

Tuesday, Oct 21, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Money; Hoffman; Hassert; Cross; SDems; Dunn; Munson; Pay; Raoul (Use all caps in password)

Tuesday, Oct 21, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Another massive screw-up by voter group

Tuesday, Oct 21, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Local Lake County media was all atwitter this week at a seemingly stunning revelation by their county clerk

Lake County Clerk Willard Helander expressed concerns Oct. 17 with the high volume of irregularities in voter registration applications recently received by her office.

These improprieties could impact the results of local elections within the county, Helander said.

“The integrity of an election could well be compromised,” Helander said. “In an election cycle where a Lake County candidate would win or lose by one or two votes, this is really scary.”

Helander said several days ago that she had notified area police, the attorney general and the feds. The attorney general, however, wasn’t notified until late yesterday afternoon.

* More

Pointing to more than 1,000 “compromised” registration forms received by her office, County Clerk Willard Helander called Friday for voter registration reform to protect the integrity of elections.

Meanwhile, the Lake County State’s Attorney’s Office and the Lake County Sheriff’s Office confirmed the initiation of a joint investigation into the registration forms, which include non-existent addresses, dead people and even pets.

* Pets? What the heck is that about?

The only “agent of change” Princess ever supported was the person who freshened the water in her fishbowl.

So election officials in Chicago’s northern suburbs want to know why voter registration material was sent to the dead goldfish. […]

Beth Nudelman, who owned the fish, said Princess may have landed on a mailing list because the family once filled in the pet’s name when they got a second phone line for a computer.

“There was no fraud involved,” said Nudelman, a Democrat who supports Barack Obama. “This person is a dead fish.”

The paperwork sent to a “Princess Nudelman” likely came from the “Women’s Voices, Women Vote” project, which sent nearly 1 million mailings to Illinois households in August using a list that mistakenly included some pets, said Sarah Johnson, a spokeswoman for the not-for-profit group that encourages single women to vote.

* An August 21st story in the Monmouth Review Atlas about the Women’s Voices, Women Vote statewide mailer includes this bit of info

The generic form already has names printed on them

Apparently, some people are just sending the completed forms into the county clerk’s office, maybe as a joke, or maybe because they don’t read them closely, or whatever.

* I’d heard of that Women’s Voices, Women Vote outfit before. The group backed was chock full of Hillary Clinton supporters in the primaries and found itself in hot water all over the place. This is from the Virginia State Police

Virginia State Police special agents have tracked down and identified the source of the mass mailing of voter registration applications to Virginia households across the Commonwealth.

The investigation was initiated Thursday (Feb. 7, 2008) after State Police was contacted by the State Board of Elections. On Wednesday and Thursday of this week, Virginia citizens began receiving recorded phone messages notifying them that a voter registration packet would be arriving in the mail. The individuals were then advised to complete, sign and mail in the application. Concerned because the messages did not specify who or where the packets were coming from, many of the citizens contacted their local registrar to find out if it was legitimate.

* In North Carolina, the group’s robocalls were initially thought to be a form of voter suppression because the calls targeted African-Americans with incorrect information…

“The calls were scheduled to coincide with the arrival of the voter registration applications,” the group said in a statement. “We regret any confusion that has arised as a consequence of this timing.” Podesta weighed in as well, calling the North Carolina situation “a mistake of judgment and execution, and not an attempt to disenfranchise voters.”

* More problems

* In Arizona last November, election officials were “inundated with complaints” after Women’s Voices sent a mailing erroneously claiming that recipients were “required” to mail back an enclosed voter registration form. Many who received the mailing were already registered; the mailing also gave the wrong registration date. Secretary of State Jan Brewer denounced the group’s tactics as “misleading and deceptive.”

* A similar mailing in Colorado that month “[drew] fire and caused confusion,” according to a state press release.

* In Wisconsin, state officials singled out Women’s Voices for misleading and possibly disenfranchising voters, stating in a press release [PDF]: “One group in particular — Women’s Voices. Women Vote, of Washington, D.C. — apparently ignored or disregarded state deadlines in seeking to register voters,” sending in registrations past the January 30 deadline and causing “hundreds of Wisconsin voters who think they registered in advance” to actually not be.

* Michigan officials ended up “fielding tons of calls from confused voters” after Women’s Voices did a February mailing to “380,000 unmarried women” — including numerous deceased voters and even more that were already registered. Sarah Johnson of Women’s Voices “seemed confused by the confusion,” the Lansing State Journal reported.

* A 1.5 million-piece Women’s Voices mailing in Florida falsely stated: “To comply with state voting requirements, please return the enclosed application.” Pasco County’s elections supervisor called it “disingenuous”; another said it created “a lot of unnecessary panic on behalf of the voters,” reported local newspapers. Sarah Johnson of Women’s Voice said, “I’m sorry to hear that.”

* By March, Women’s Voices was backing off the erroneous “registration is required” language, but there were still problems. For example, a mailing in Arkansas allowed that “registering to vote is voluntary,” but a clerk in Washington County reported that “the majority [of forms] sent back to the county come from registered voters, causing needless labor for office employees.”

What a mess.

But it looks, once again, like this group may be incompetent or at least careless and not intentionally evil. Helander might want to rein in the rhetoric a bit.

Goldfish don’t vote. Not even dead ones.

  56 Comments      


Question of the day

Tuesday, Oct 21, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

Are you working or volunteering for any campaigns in Illinois right now? If so, what are you doing and why are you doing it? How much time are you putting in every week?

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More hurtful drama

Tuesday, Oct 21, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From the AP

Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich won’t restore state budget cuts until he’s sure the spending plan can withstand an economic slide, an aide said Monday, adding if the financial crises worsen, he might have to cut more.

But a legislative budget-watcher says the state has the money and Blagojevich should use it.

The Democratic governor is sitting on legislation to spare closing two dozen state attractions, laying off 323 workers and cutting drug-abuse treatment by tens of millions of dollars.

But what if the administration restores the cuts only to suffer a revenue slowdown? Illinois is better off than states of similar size but the governor remains concerned, spokesman Lucio Guerrero said.

“We are reviewing our revenue forecast to ensure that we will not have to make further cuts,” Guerrero said. “It would be a shame to propose restorations and then have to rescind them if the economic climate worsens.”

I can’t believe the AP let that one go unchallenged.

So what if the governor restores the cuts and revenue tanks? What does one have to do with the other?

The General Assembly made some very specific cut restorations by using targeted skims from existing money in special state funds.

Even if the overall budget completely tanks, there will be zero impact on the legislative package approved by the General Assembly, because it didn’t rely on any General Revenue Fund money. If GRF goes down, those special funds aren’t reduced.

* What’s going on here is that the guv’s office is saying if GRF is way down they just may cut those programs again. Even after the General Assembly made its will known by overwhelmingly voting to restore funding for those facilities, programs and services.

The argument that some of the skims aren’t allowed, which is made elsewhere in the piece, may or may not have validity. As of yet nobody has laid out the full legal reasoning.

But this game of “I cut, you restore, I cut again” is a bit much.

* Lots of administration types read this blog and comment here. I welcome the input. But I would like all of them to watch this video of a woman and her children being forced out of an alcohol and substance abuse center and into a homeless shelter because of this stupid, disgusting game…


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Biggert, Roskam on the radar?

Tuesday, Oct 21, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* A recent story in the Washington Post centered around an interview with Cornell Belcher, who polls for both the DCCC and Barack Obama. It indicates that two Illinois Republican incumbents might be on the Dems’ radar because of the nation’s economic woes

In Illinois’ 13th district, an exurban Chicago seat where veteran Rep. Judy Biggert (R) is running for re-election, Belcher found that voters trust Democrats to fix the economy more than Republicans by a 19-point margin. They gave Democrats a 15-point edge on energy issues and an 11-point advantage on the broad question of which party “shares your values.” And that’s all in a district where President Bush won by 10 points in 2004 and 13 points in 2000.

The story is similar in the neighboring 6th district of freshman Rep. Peter Roskam (R). The seat has long leaned Republican — Bush won it by 6 points in 2004 — but now, Belcher found, Democrats have a 14-point edge on the economy and a 15-point lead on energy.

Does that mean that Biggert and Roskam are going to lose? No. Both remain favored to win re-election, and neither of their races gets included on most prognoticators’ lists of competitive contests. The point here is that if Democrats are opening up such a wide lead on economic issues in Republican districts like these, what’s going to happen in the true swing seats? And that’s before the effects of Obama’s increasingly strong candidacy — and money — enter the discussion.

As today’s Tribune poll shows, 57 percent of Illinoisans said the economy was the top issue, which would explain why Belcher thinks those two incumbents might possibly be vulnerable.

* I checked with a local Democratic strategist about this article, and he had this to say via AIM…

Biggert is the exact kind of person that gets caught in a sweep like this: Low profile, not seriously challenged, not a big fundraiser.

A hammer dropped on her head is unexpected and dangerous, even if she’s moderate and has high approval numbers. Those can be very soft in an environment like this.

Roskam is different. He’s been communicating, he’s attacked Morgenthaler and he just went through a tough run last year. My guess would be that his voters are more loyal.

That said, I just can’t believe the [DCCC] would drop the hammer on these two.

Spend the money on Seals who deserves actual help from the committee and would be a Dem seat for 20 years.

* Democrat Jill Morgenthaler’s campaign had this comment about their chances against the Republican Roskam yesterday via e-mail…

In looking at the 16 election pairs (the last 10 years of primary + general) in the 6th District and the neighboring 8th and 14th, I discovered that the Democratic percentage of overall votes went up from the primary to the general in every case.

The Democratic percentage in the 6th in the primary was 54%.

By the way, it is the first time that the Dem percentage in the primary was over 50% in the 6th. […]

In February, Democratic ballots cast in the Congressional race were 54% and Republican 46%. If the historic voting trends prevail, then the Democratic candidate in the General Election, JIll Morgenthaler, would stand to get more than 54% in the the upcoming election.

Even in years where the Democrats were not well known and spent very little money, the percentage still goes up from primary election to general election.

A Morgenthaler victory might sound unlikely in this historically Republican district, but, given the large number of new Democrats who registered for the February election, approximately 37,000 and Obama’s popularity in district, it is not. (Obama is very popular in the district where he won his Senate Primary and General elections as well as the Presidential primary.) In the February primary, there were 25,000 more Democratic votes cast than Republican.

Take it all for what it’s worth.

* By the way, the Tribune endorsed Morgenthaler today. An excerpt…

Roskam has a generally solid voting record, but he lends his name to some causes that would turn Congress into a busybody. He has co-sponsored a bill that would push the Defense Department to ban Playboy and R-rated movies from sale on military bases. He supports another bill that could put the clamps on in-vitro fertilization. Finally, Roskam opposes the expansion of O’Hare International Airport. That’s a key issue for this region—and Morgenthaler is right to support expansion. She gets the nod.

* The Sun-Times endorsed Roskam

He has reached across the partisan divide, holding regular conference calls with voters. He has made tax relief his first priority, reflecting the preferences of both Republicans and moderate Democrats in his district. And he has the parliamentary skills and pragmatic approach to governance that could make him an effective counterweight to a possible Democratic White House and an overwhelmingly Democratic House and Senate.

* Related…

* Schock investigation ends quickly

* Schock won’t be charged in document flap

* Tribune endorses Kirk, Ozinga, Morgenthaler, Bean

* Manzullo in a 3-way race
quote>

* Kirk, Seals run against each other, Bush

* Illinois’ 10th District Draws the Eye of National Parties

* Dan Seals on Health Care

* Both 14th District candidates have deep pockets

* Roskam promises fiscal responsibility

  18 Comments      


This just in…. Burge arrested, indicted… Daley denies responsibility… Burge free on bond

Tuesday, Oct 21, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* 9:00 am - From the US Attorney’s office…

Former Chicago Police Commander Jon Burge was arrested today at his home in Florida on federal obstruction of justice and perjury charges for allegedly lying about whether he and other officers under his command participated in torture and physical abuse of one or more suspects in police custody dating back to the 1980s. Burge was charged with two counts of obstruction of justice and one count of perjury in a three-count indictment that was returned under seal by a federal grand jury last Thursday and unsealed today following his arrest by FBI agents from Chicago and Tampa.

The charges allege that Burge lied and impeded court proceedings in November 2003 when he provided false written answers to questions – known as interrogatories – in a civil lawsuit alleging that he and others tortured and abused people in their custody.

Burge, 60, of Apollo Beach. Fla., near Tampa and formerly of Chicago, was expected to appear later today in U.S. District Court in Tampa. He will appear at a later date in U.S. District Court in Chicago, where he will face prosecution.

The arrest and indictment were announced today by Patrick J. Fitzgerald, United States Attorney for the Northern District of Illinois; Grace Chung Becker, Acting Assistant Attorney General for the U.S. Justice Department’s Civil Rights Division; Robert D. Grant, Special Agent-in-Charge of the Chicago Office of the Federal Bureau of Investigation; and Steven E. Ibison, Special Agent-in-Charge of the FBI’s Tampa Field Division.

“There is no place for torture and abuse in a police station. There is no place for perjury and false statements in federal lawsuits,” Mr. Fitzgerald said. “ No person is above the law, and nobody – even a suspected murderer – is beneath its protection. The alleged criminal conduct by defendant Burge goes to the core principles of our criminal justice system,” he added.

“Throughout this nation, law enforcement officers make daily sacrifices in the pursuit of justice,” said Acting Assistant Attorney General Grace Chung Becker. “It is imperative that we take these charges seriously but also bear in mind they do not reflect upon the conduct of the vast majority of law enforcement officers.”

Mr. Grant said: “Everyday Chicago Police Officers execute their sworn duties lawfully with great skill, courage and integrity. Sometimes they do so with great peril, as we have been sadly reminded in recent weeks and months. But police officers have a special duty which is underscored by today’s announcement. Police officers don’t serve the public as judge and jury and they have a special responsibility to care for those within their custody, regardless of their alleged crimes. Today’s announcement brings great shame on the career of retired Commander Jon Burge.”

The investigation is continuing, the officials said.

* Full press release

* Indictment

* 1:44 pm - Mayor Daley says nobody can blame him for Burge

Two years ago, Mayor Daley accepted his share of responsibility and offered to “apologize to anyone” for the torture of suspects by Jon Burge — even as he argued that the ultimate responsibility rests with the Chicago Police Department.

On Tuesday, the mayor changed his tune.

Hours after Burge was arrested in Florida and charged with perjury and obstruction of justice, Daley refused to accept even an ounce of responsibility for one of the ugliest chapters in the history of the Chicago Police Department.

Never mind that a $ 7 million report by special prosecutors faulted Daley, who served as state’s attorney during the 1980’s, for failing to follow up on a 1982 letter from then-Police Supt. Richard Brzeczek that strongly suggested abuse in the case of accused cop killer Andrew Wilson.

Raw audio is here.

* 3:41 pm - From the US Attorney’s office…

We have received the following information about Burge’s court appearance this afternoon before U.S. Magistrate Judge Thomas B. McCoun III in Federal Court in Tampa:

Burge was represented by a federal court-appointed attorney for today’s hearing. (I don’t have his/her name.)

He is being released this afternoon on a $250,000 secured bond, meaning he will be posting his residence as security.

He must surrender his passport.

He must report to pre-trial services in the Middle District of Florida twice a week.

He must surrender his firearms to a friend for safe-keeping.

His travel is restricted to the Middle District of Florida and the Northern District of Illinois.

He must give pre-trial services in Tampa his travel plans when he comes to Chicago.

He is currently scheduled to be arraigned at 9 a.m. on Monday October 27 before U.S. District Judge Joan H. Lefkow in U.S. District Court in Chicago.

  48 Comments      


Mother Tribune opens up its latest poll to us little people

Tuesday, Oct 21, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The Tribune’s latest poll doesn’t tell us much that most of us already didn’t know or suspect

The Tribune poll found Obama with the support of 56 percent of the state’s voters, compared with 32 percent who said they are backing McCain. […]

The economy was by far the No. 1 concern of voters across the state. A total of 57 percent named it the top issue of the presidential race, with affordable health care second at 14 percent. Terrorism and the Iraq War were the top concerns for only a fraction of the voters.

Asked which candidate would do a better job of restoring the economy and jobs in the country, voters chose Obama by a nearly 2-1 ratio, 54 percent to 28 percent. The Democratic senator also held an advantage among independents, who are often the deciding factor in elections.

* More

Overall, 45 percent of the state’s voters have an unfavorable impression of Palin, compared with 33 percent who view her favorably. In contrast, Biden was viewed favorably by 54 percent and unfavorably by 23 percent.

* What is new, however, is that the Tribune has finally decided to post its poll results online. Mother Tribune has refused to do this in the past, so nobody knew what they might be withholding from us lowly plebes. So, when you see something like this in the article…

Obama has a 72 percent to 19 percent advantage in Cook County including Chicago. But in the Republican-leaning collar counties, Obama’s advantage narrows to 47 percent to 39 percent over McCain. In the state’s remaining 96 counties, Obama’s numbers shrink to a questionable lead, 45 percent to 41 percent.

You can go to the poll and see that Obama leads among men (55-34) as well as women (58-30). That’s unusual.

By the way, a 47-39 Obama lead in the collar counties is truly significant. And a four-point lead downstate, even though the MoE is pretty high for that result, is still nothing to sneeze at.

* Looking at the poll also gives us this narrative…

Obama leads 56% to 33% among white suburban women. In the same table, the race is 50% to 40% for McCain among fairly conservative voters and 59% to 29% among very conservative voters.

Suburban women are absolutely key to winning Illinois. McCain is getting trounced in that demographic. And he’s not doing nearly as well as he should among conservatives.

* Also not mentioned in the Trib story was this result on a question of which veep candidate is more qualifid to take over the duties of president. You may want to click the pic for a larger version…

* And this little, but unsurprising nugget got buried…

…only 18 percent in the Tribune poll approve of the president’s performance…

The poll itself shows that McCain voters are sharply divided over President Bush’s job approval: 43-44. Also, 78 percent of independents disapprove of Bush’s performance, while just 12 percent approve.

Go read the whole thing.

* Somewhat related…

* Early Voting Soars In Suburban Collar Counties

* Thousands electing to vote early

* Springfield, IHPA can’t rule out another Obama visit

* Durbin to be at NIU on Tuesday

  32 Comments      


Morning shorts

Tuesday, Oct 21, 2008 - Posted by Kevin Fanning

* Exelon Makes Unsolicited Bid for NRG Energy

* Credit crisis hitting Chicago’s office market

J. P. Morgan Chase & Co. has terminated a 52,100-square-foot lease of a former Bear Stearns Cos. office in the Central Loop, as Wall Street’s woes begin to rattle the downtown Chicago office market.

Five financial services firms that were sold or taken over as a result of the crisis, including Merrill Lynch & Co. and American International Group Inc., lease about 835,000 square feet downtown, according to a third-quarter report by tenant representation firm Studley Inc.

* Economy squeezing revenue for cities

Sales tax collections are down in the Rock River Valley as a shaky economy squeezes business in Winnebago, Boone and Ogle counties, forcing some local governments to cut back spending.

evictions back

Less than two weeks after Cook County Sheriff Tom Dart announced he was suspending mortgage foreclosure evictions — a move that drew international attention — his deputies were back at it Monday.

Dart’s deputies were following new guidelines that he had insisted on before resuming the evictions, including protecting renters who have no idea they’re about to be evicted because no one has told them their landlord is facing foreclosure.

* Cook County Hires More Judges to Cope with Foreclosure Crisis

* Homeowners could get help with property taxes

Cook County homeowners who got walloped by huge property tax increases this month could qualify for government assistance to help pay their tax bills under a proposal floated Monday by county assessor James Houlihan.

Houlihan wants Chicago and Cook County government and local suburbs to establish a fund earmarked for property tax relief, and he hopes to get Mayor Daley, Cook County Board President Todd Stroger and local mayors on board.

* Houlihan Pressed on Details of Tax Plan

* County assessor asks for help on high property taxes

“The taxpayers are streaming into our offices and they are frightened,” Houlihan said. “They are worried about escalating property taxes when they see their home values are declining,” he said. “They need immediate help.”

* Beware of the boot

More than 169,000 parking tickets were issued during the first eight months of this year in the 42nd Ward, which includes Chicago’s downtown and Gold Coast areas. That’s 44 percent more tickets than the next highest ward.

* Flood victims lining up for food stamps

Thousands of Chicago-area residents braved the morning chill Monday to apply for food stamps to recoup losses from last month’s floods.

More than 5,000 households from the seven-county area affected by the floods have already been approved for disaster assistance, said Marielle Sainvilus, spokeswoman for the Illinois Department of Human Services. But thousands more are still in need, Sainvilus said, which is why the federal government has extended its application deadline through Wednesday.

* Boeing, machinists union to resume talks

* Aldermen bash city’s spending of millions on public relations

The aldermen on Monday cited a recent Tribune article detailing how City Hall spends $4.7 million on salaries for more than 50 public information officials and has paid millions of dollars more to public relations firms.

Ald. Michael Zalewski (23rd) noted that the city is laying off almost 1,000 laborers, tree trimmers and other employees to plug a $469 million budget deficit.

“When we are prioritizing these cuts, are these [public information] people that are being looked at, or are we just going after laborers and people that are out there getting dirty every day?” Zalewski asked Daley aides who testified on the proposed budget.

* Stroger sitcom: ‘All in the Family’

It’s easy to poke fun at Cook County Board President Todd Stroger and his tendency to hire friends and family to fill county jobs. But every once in a while taxpayers can see firsthand why it’s nothing to laugh about.

Take the story of county purchasing agent Carmen Triche-Colvin, as reported in the Chicago Sun-Times on Monday by county reporter Mark Konkol.

* New Illinois Bar Foundation president

* 10 reasons why newspapers won’t reinvent news

The chance to act with foresight in advance of the coming wave came and went, and now these once-proud press flagships are swamped, broken and sinking.

  10 Comments      


Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax

Tuesday, Oct 21, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Come one, come all

Tuesday, Oct 21, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

Click the pic to make a reservation for this Chicago event…

Apparently, Pat Quinn’s new day job is debating on behalf of the con-con.

  Comments Off      


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