Kirk leads Giannoulias by 3 points
Tuesday, Aug 18, 2009 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Rasmussen Reports has Kirk leading Giannoulias 41-38…
In thinking about the 2010 Election for the United States Senate, suppose you had a choice between Republican Mark Kirk and Democrat Alexi Giannoulias. If the election were held today would you vote for Republican Mark Kirk or Democrat Alexi Giannoulias?
41% Kirk
38% Giannoulias
4% Some other candidate
17% Not sure
And Kirk has a much bigger lead over Jackson…
Okay, what if the Democrats nominate Cheryle Jackson. If the 2010 election for United States Senate were held today would you vote for Republican Mark Kirk or Democrat Cheryle Jackson?
47% Kirk
30% Jackson
6% Some other candidate
17% Not sure
* But more Democrats are undecided than Republicans and independents are leaning strongly towards Kirk at the moment…
In a race against Giannoulias, Kirk gets 71% of the Republican vote. Giannoulias earns 63% Democratic support. Voters not affiliated with either party prefer Kirk 45% to 18%.
Kirk picks up 76% of Republicans in a match-up with Jackson, who has the backing of just 51% of Democrats in the state. Unaffiliateds break for Kirk again, this time by a 51% to 12% margin. […]
Among those who favor the health care reform plan, Giannoulias leads Kirk 68% to 17%. But Kirk has an even larger lead – 67% to nine percent (9%) – among voters opposed to the plan.
The electorate is still fluid.
Also, keep in mind that Rasmussen tends to skew GOP in its national polling.
More toplines…
I’m going to read you a short list of people in the News. For each, please let me know if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression.
First, Mark Kirk
10% Very favorable
45% Somewhat favorable
24% Somewhat unfavorable
4% Very unfavorable
17% Not sure
6* Next, Alexi Giannoulias
13% Very favorable
38% Somewhat favorable
22% Somewhat unfavorable
11% Very unfavorable
17% Not sure
7* Okay, Cheryle Jackson
13% Very favorable
23% Somewhat favorable
23% Somewhat unfavorable
14% Very unfavorable
26% Not sure
And…
Generally speaking, do you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose the health care reform plan proposed by President Obama and the congressional Democrats?
29% Strongly favor
19% Somewhat favor
9% Somewhat oppose
39% Strongly oppose
3% Not sure
When it comes to health care decisions, who do you fear the most: the federal government or private insurance companies?
49% The federal government
44% Private insurance companies
7% Not sure
500 likely voters, conducted August 12. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.
* Meanwhile…
The bathrobe bloggers are already chattering that Giannoulias has the nomination wrapped up.
Let’s hold on a minute. Here’s Jackson’s playbook:
Rake in some heavy green. While her profile will attract some soft-focused free media, this political unknown needs money big time for TV commercial time.
Jackson’s got to play the race and gender cards. She is assiduously wooing Emily’s List, the powerful national PAC that backs women candidates. As Giannoulias has done in the Greek community, she must cultivate a national profile among prominent women and monied Democratic liberals.
The black “keep-the-seaters” are an unpredictable bunch, but they could come in handy, as well.
Bathrobe bloggers?
Whatever.
* Related…
* Will Chris Kennedy run for Senate? ‘He’s been basically underground for three weeks’
* Is Senate candidate Jackson to blame for Blago blunder?
* Kirk hit on health care
- wordslinger - Tuesday, Aug 18, 09 @ 9:39 am:
Looks like the candidates better hurry defining themselves before they’re defined by their opponents.
I think health care will be long gone as a big issue by next year, one way or the other.
- Homey - Tuesday, Aug 18, 09 @ 9:42 am:
Just because they’re likely voters doesn’t mean they have any sense. When it comes to those who “strongly oppose,” have they been asked if they currently have health insurance? My bet is that’s those who oppose. Sometimes you’ve got to change things, blow the dust off, stir the stew.
- Shore - Tuesday, Aug 18, 09 @ 9:48 am:
Clinton left power with high approval ratings and yet his subordinates, janet reno, erskine bowles, terry mcauliffe, that had never run for office themselves got killed. I don’t care how great a person you are, if you had the judgment to work for blago as a top advisor, you probably don’t have the judgment to be a u.s. senator.
I am disappointed beth coulson is running for our gop u.s. house seat. She and the party have been major disappointments in springfield. I am still hoping a former senator fitzgerald aide gets in.
The Sun-Times needs to reevaluate some of their op-ed people. I get dumber reading some of that stuff, especially the bathrobe comment.
- Narcoleptic - Tuesday, Aug 18, 09 @ 9:53 am:
As I told Ghost here. C.J. will spend more time defending her relationship or non-relationship to Rod (however she cares to characterize or mischaracterize it) than she will promoting her “growth” agenda.
She can’t spend 2/3 of her media money (whatever she raises) defending herself, although this is a Dprimary and stranger things have happened (Dixon, Netsch?, LaRouche).
- Ravenswood Right Winger - Tuesday, Aug 18, 09 @ 9:54 am:
Chris Kennedy has gotten more traction out of “will he run?” than any other candidate I can recall in recent years. I say he doesn’t run.
- lake county democrat - Tuesday, Aug 18, 09 @ 9:58 am:
Obviously this is an early poll and very fluid situation, but doesn’t it prove the CW about Kirk was correct given the context that Illinois is a solidly blue state? The state GOP is still in disaray — Kirk doesn’t set anyone’s wingnut antenna off, exudes safety and, compared to Alex G., experience. I dunno if Chris Kennedy is a better candidate (I kinda suspect he is, but he’s a dice roll) but Cheryle Jackson sure isn’t, not for the second biggest statewide election you can have.
PS Off topic, but I’m not as bothered by Durbin writing a letter for his staffer than Alderman Munoz (and whoever else) doing it for “constitutents” (esp. if also contributors). I don’t approve, but at least the motive seems less selfish.
- Interested party - Tuesday, Aug 18, 09 @ 10:27 am:
Rich,
Did the polls have a breakdown for race would be interesting to see how much of the african-american vote kirk would get in a race with alexi?
- Brennan - Tuesday, Aug 18, 09 @ 10:28 am:
==She is assiduously wooing Emily’s List, the powerful national PAC that backs women candidates.==
Good heavens. Can the Sun-Times fact check their own columnists so they can accurately describe political action committees like Emily’s List? It’s not an organization that backs female candidate for public office. This is a total farce. It backs explicitly progressive, pro-choice women for public office.
==Clinton left power with high approval ratings and yet his subordinates, janet reno, erskine bowles, terry mcauliffe, that had never run for office themselves got killed.==
Rahm didn’t have any trouble. Seals did. The machine can do what it wants, when it wants, where it can actually shove off the toughest opponents and has no legitimate contending party. North Carolina and Florida actually have contending state wide Republican Parties.
- DemLifer - Tuesday, Aug 18, 09 @ 10:31 am:
Shore, where did you see Beth Coulson is a definite candidate in Illinois 10?
- PFK - Tuesday, Aug 18, 09 @ 10:33 am:
Why can’t these pollsters just list LeAlan Jones as an option instead of “some other candidate”. He’s probably the only other candidate who will be on the ballot. Give me a break.
- Brennan - Tuesday, Aug 18, 09 @ 10:36 am:
Question 19 is pretty interesting. I would have thought that in Illinois there would at least be greater doubt in private insurance companies than there would be in the Federal Government.
Has anyone seen any poll of likely voters that does place doubt higher in the private insurers compared to the Feds?
- Shore - Tuesday, Aug 18, 09 @ 10:47 am:
Team America reported this morning that Coulson is in. It’s a sad day for 10th grassroots Republicans who actually want a fresh voice and fresh face. 10 years ago I might have gotten behind her, but after how badly the party establishment has done, I’m really not ready for more uninspired failure.
The point with bowles and reno was that even when the boss leaves office popular, it’s a tough hike. Blago left office unpopular and is going to resurface next year in a big way. It’ll be for her what bush was in 06 for republicans, something on tv everynight that she won’t be able to escape.
Laura Washington needs a sit down with someone who knows something about politics. EMILY’s list is a lot more bark than bite and only wins half the time at best.
- siriusly - Tuesday, Aug 18, 09 @ 10:52 am:
I think this poll shows that Dem voters are not really excited about Gianoulis nor Cheryle Jackson. Count me as one of them. I hope someone else gets in the race otherwise I see this as Kirks to lose.
- DemLifer - Tuesday, Aug 18, 09 @ 11:23 am:
Right on, Siriusly.
Though I disagree with Mark Kirk most of the time, he is clearly a top tier Republican while both Giannoulious and Jackson are second string.
Unless a first team Democrat steps up—are you reading Lisa Madigan, Jesse Jackson, Jr. and all the President’s staff—the veto proof senate will evaporate into Mark Kirk.
Now, that’s a scary thought.
- moron - Tuesday, Aug 18, 09 @ 11:38 am:
Bathrobe bloggers?
not in this weather
- Homey - Tuesday, Aug 18, 09 @ 12:06 pm:
This post should have split up. The healthcare post deserves more attention. Ask the folks along the Gulf coast what they think of insurance companies.
- The Doc - Tuesday, Aug 18, 09 @ 12:22 pm:
==Unless a first team Democrat steps up—are you reading Lisa Madigan, Jesse Jackson, Jr.==
Uh, LM isn’t running. And the Blago taint on J3 is more substantial than on Cheryl Jackson.
I think what you see today is what you get.
And some unsolicited advice for Chris Kennedy - really, it’s past time to fish or cut bait. He makes Quinn appear decisive.
- DRG - Tuesday, Aug 18, 09 @ 12:36 pm:
This is about what I would expect early polls to show. The beauty of it all is that there are a lot of unanswered questions to be answered, from Kirk, Giannoulias, and Jackson. Should Chris Kennedy evedr decide to run for anything, there will be a lot more Qs to be answered. Maybe that is what keeps him MIA. So stay tuned for the post Labor Day polls when the meat starts to cook. I think it is Kirk’s to lose.
- dupage dan - Tuesday, Aug 18, 09 @ 1:08 pm:
Homey,
The issue is regarding health insurance, not home owners insurance. However, ask those same people about how FEMA performed. The whole thing was FUBAR from the start.
- Responsa - Tuesday, Aug 18, 09 @ 1:39 pm:
FWIW I’ve spent a lot of time out and around these past few days (picnic, patio party, Ravinia, Sox baseball game last night with a different group). My subtle reconnaissance efforts and informal information gathering over beer and wine very much supports the premise that neither Alexi or Cheryle are exciting regular Democrat voters at all.
- Pre - Tuesday, Aug 18, 09 @ 1:39 pm:
–I think what you see today is what you get.—
Looks like it. A few reports that CK is out…
http://www.suntimes.com/news/steinberg/1722088,chris-kennedy-senate-not-running-081809.article
- Captain Flume - Tuesday, Aug 18, 09 @ 1:40 pm:
So I just read that Kennedy is NOT running, not much in the Dem tank now.
- dupage dan - Tuesday, Aug 18, 09 @ 1:43 pm:
Dems have Lisa and Jesse, not much else.
- Downstater - Tuesday, Aug 18, 09 @ 1:48 pm:
Rasmussen does not skew Repbulican in its polling.
It has been the most accurate poll in the last two elections cycles.
- Brennan - Tuesday, Aug 18, 09 @ 2:06 pm:
==Ask the folks along the Gulf coast what they think of insurance companies.==
You can live in locations you cannot insure, but I wouldn’t advise it.
- centrist - Tuesday, Aug 18, 09 @ 3:06 pm:
Rich seems to show his bias again.
- Team Sleep - Tuesday, Aug 18, 09 @ 3:28 pm:
Alexi still has his “hoops buddy” in his back pocket.
Thank God that Coulson decided to run in the 10th CD. I am a firm believer that strength at the federal level can translate into strength at the state and local levels. Granted, the 10th CD leans “D”, but a Beth Coulson win could greatly aid state rep, state senate and statewide candidates in her Congressional area.
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Aug 18, 09 @ 4:54 pm:
===============
Alexi still has his “hoops buddy” in his back pocket.
===============
Depends on 1) how busy the POTUS is, and 2) how much risk is involved.
Plus the term “back pocket” usually calls for some element of surprise. Woops! Too late!
- Green - Tuesday, Aug 18, 09 @ 10:55 pm:
I think that Cheryle Jackson is being unfairly criticized for the $1 million dollar grant that DCEO gave away. Cheryle did not sign that check. Who signed the check?.
Also,I am ready to give Sheryle my vote. We have Blago, Rezko and Kelly going away. Roland is not running. Danny Davis is going to replace Stroger. Who is left to entertain us? I can wait for Cheryle to win. At least I can read all those press releases loaded with typos and grammatical errors that made her famous when she was Blagos’ Director of Communications. If Cheryle losses this election Illinois will become a boring state. It may force me move to Louisiana to cheer up William Jefferson.
- CJ hasmyvote - Thursday, Aug 20, 09 @ 1:42 pm:
Cheryle Jackson’s entrepreneurial focus on economics in urban communities has assisted my life personally. I’ve seen her genuineness up close and personal. Alexi came to visit my church personally and all I can remember is his basketball relationship w/ Obama. He’s likable and rich….but I don’t know what he has done for the ‘community’ that he tries to entice. Go Cheryle! You’ve proven that you can get the job done….on the grass roots level. And that’s the double truth….Ruth