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*** UPDATED x1 *** O’Brien counters with own poll results
Friday, Dec 11, 2009 - Posted by Rich Miller * MWRD President Terry O’Brien is releasing his own polling results today in an attempt to counter the Tribune’s poll showing him in last place in the Cook County Board President’s race and trailing badly. The O’Brien poll was conducted by Cooper & Secrest November 11-17 of 605 likely Democratic primary voters with a margin of error of +/-4%. The polling memo, which can be downloaded by clicking here, claims that “Dorothy Brown is likely a temporary frontrunner” and, of course, claims that O’Brien is “positioned to emerge as the ultimate winner.” O’Brien’s head-to-heads compared to the Trib’s. *** UPDATE *** I don’t know how I did this, but I screwed up the poll numbers. Preckwinkle is at 16 and O’Brien is at 15. Oops. Sorry about that…
More from O’Brien’s pollster…
The memo also touts O’Brien’s second place finish despite being the least well known of the candidates. And it points to Preckwinkle’s four votes for pay raises.
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- 47th Ward - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 1:44 pm:
Oh, so he isn’t last, just tied for last. Glad that got clarified.
- wordslinger - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 1:48 pm:
Except for Preckwinkle’s number, O’Brien’s poll tracks the Trib’s pretty closely.
The accompanying memo is sunnily optimistic. Apparently, he’s got them right where he wants them.
- VanillaMan - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 1:59 pm:
I don’t want to be snide, but his poll doesn’t really help his case.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 2:00 pm:
=== The accompanying memo is sunnily optimistic. ===
The accompanying memo isn’t optimistic. Its gratuitous, contains atleast one spelling error (”undeserable”), and an insult to our intelligence.
It looks to me like O’Brien heard there was going to be a Tribune poll story and rushed his pollster to throw together a memo. This poll was conducted almost a month ago, so if they thought it was such overwhelming good news, why did they sit on it?
And I’m sorry, but, you’re going to have to show me crosstabs or atleast the results of push questions before claiming:
1. Dorothy Brown is vulnerable because of her unethical behavior.
2. Preckwinkle is vulnerable for four pay raises.
3. Terry O’Brien’s record on “ethics” is one to be proud of.
I’ve never seen an exclamation point, let alone so many, in a polling memo before.
And I think the final graph says it all:
With sufficient resources to tell his story, Terry O’Brien is very likely to be the next Cook County Board President. This is a sound investment…”
This is a fundraising tool, not a polling memo.
- wordslinger - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 2:03 pm:
–The accompanying memo isn’t optimistic. Its gratuitous, contains atleast one spelling error (”undeserable”), and an insult to our intelligence.–
To-may-to, To-mah-to….
- The 'Dale to HPark - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 2:03 pm:
Two things:
1) How the hell is Dorothy Brown leading these polls? I’ll take four more years of Todd over Dorothy. If we think Todd is in over his head, Dorothy will be even more so.
2) Madigan has his work cut out for him… no one knows who the hell his guy is with just over 8 weeks to go.
- YEP - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 2:07 pm:
“Madigan’s got his work cut out for him”? Madigan’s candidate is leading
- The 'Dale to HPark - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 2:11 pm:
YEP — well yeah, I guess one of them is, but there’s no way he doesn’t want O’Brien in there.
- Reformer - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 2:15 pm:
Either Dorothy or Terry would be good for MJM.
- Reform Cook - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 2:16 pm:
Apparently, anyone can just send out poorly-written campaign literature now, attach unverified numbers, and call it a polling memo.
- 47th Ward - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 2:17 pm:
===Either Dorothy or Terry would be good for MJM.===
Which is why I’ll be voting for Preckwinkle.
- MOON - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 2:21 pm:
Please explain why Dorothy or Terry would be good for Madigan? I dont get it!
- Don't Worry, Be Happy - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 2:23 pm:
I like how Preckwinkle and O’Brien are tied by virtue of being withing the MoE, but Stroger, who is also within the MoE (16, 15, 13 +/-4) is last.
When comparing the two polls, the numbers for each candidate are in fact within the MoE of each other - both Preckwinkle and O’Brien are four points off from one poll to the next.
- Rich Miller - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 2:33 pm:
===Apparently, anyone can just send out===
No. I happen to know these people.
- SweetLou - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 2:38 pm:
Dorothy Brown’s leading because of name rec and the fact that nobody really pays attention until after the New Year, and Yellow Dog, you’re probably right. I wouldn’t be surprised if this memo was written a month ago and sent to potential finance committee members. Then they caught wind of the Trib Poll, changed the date on the memo and released it to the public without revisions. Very silly of them to leave in that last sentence.
- Lakefront Liberal - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 2:45 pm:
I remember Howard Dean during the height of his campaign that he knew he was the frontrunner because of all the arrows in his back. I think that Dorothy is going to start coming under some intense scrutiny and I don’t think that will be a positive for her — to say the least!
- PFK - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 2:46 pm:
So Democrats don’t like Stroger, so they’re lining up behind Dorothy Brown, the one candidate who would actually be significantly worse than Stroger? Nice
- Reform Cook - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 2:49 pm:
Rich, I know Cooper & Secrest is a legitimate polling firm, but honestly I’ve never seen a polling memo that was more clearly written by campaign staffers. I’m a long-time Capitol Fax fan and supporter - tell me you don’t believe this is a fair and balanced memo!
- JonShibleyFan - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 2:50 pm:
This whole trend of releasing numbers that are, at best, marginally helpful is baffling to me.
- Lakefront Liberal - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 2:51 pm:
MOON: O’Brien and Brown were both born and bred in the machine culture of trading and dealmaking that someone like Madigan can exploit and control. Toni is not part of that and will be the worst of all possible things — independent of his control.
- Sam E. - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 2:51 pm:
The Trib Poll has bad news and good news for O’Brien.
Bad: 11 percent is surprisingly low. Won’t help his fundraising.
Good: 28 percent of the white vote is undecided — almost all of that is going his way. 20 percent of the black vote is undecided — that will be split three ways. And the Trib poll has O’Brien getting only 17 percent of the white vote. He’ll obviously do much better than that on election day.
Also good for O’Brien: Brown’s surprisingly high numbers in both polls might force Preckwinkle to shift strategy. I think Toni was poised to direct all her fire at O’Brien to run up his negatives with liberal-leaning white voters. Now she might have to spend some money and time beating up Brown.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not completely buying into the idea that O’Brien is a shoe-in because he’s the only white guy. Just two years ago the smart money said Howard Brookins couldn’t lose the State’s Attorney’s race because of racial voting patterns and he ended up finishing fourth. It just seems to me that this poll shows room for O’Brien and Preckwinkle’s numbers to move up, while Dorothy and Todd have already peaked.
My best guess for how things will end up:
O’Brien 34 %
Preckwinkle 30%
Brown 18%
Stroger 18%
- ZC - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 3:21 pm:
Why is it a safe bet that the undecided 28% of the white vote will all go O’Brien’s way?
Is the argument that late deciders / more inattentive / uninformed voters tend to vote overwhelmingly based on race? What would be the (recent) precedent for that?
My guess is the marginally inattentive / undecided are going to go in the end for the candidate who garners the most favorable media coverage and who can spend the most on advertising. Media coverage / endorsements will go in the end to Preckwinkle is my guess, but $$ advertising is to be determined.
- regular democrat - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 3:33 pm:
which candidate has the most boots on the ground? Probably O’Brien. That still means something.
- The 'Dale to HPark - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 3:39 pm:
IIRC, Preckwinkle is in the #1 position on the ballot for this race.
- Patrick McDonough - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 4:11 pm:
Dorothy Brown got off to a good start with her video with Judge Burrell. I think when the unions get behind O’Brien nad he makes a strong move he can take this. O’Brien maight outsmart everyone yet. I think the brown camp needs smarter managers. Toni does not have a change as far as I can see, but she is a nice lady.
- MOON - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 4:19 pm:
LAKEFRONT
I diaagree with your conclusion
O’Brien won his first election without the backing of the organization. I do not know of anything he has done subsequent to that which would show a lack of independence.
Brown has run several times against the organization backed candidates including Daley.
Right now my preference is O’Brien unless something unforseen happens in the future.
- P. - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 5:18 pm:
I don’t know where to start on this one. I would hope that soon when I hear about Dorothy Brown and Judge Burrell taht Judge Burrell is witnessing her being brought up on corruption charges. I mean, she is as bad as it gets.
If O’Brien has demonstrated anything on this campaign, it’s not smarts, but I like your optimism I guess.
The sky is the limit with Preckwinkle and if we learned anything from the Anita Alvarez campaign is that people get engaged in this kind of race late and a big part of it depends on who scores or bombs with their broadcast ads. Combined with which way the endorsements go, the ads and messaging and field can take a close race like this and make it end up more one-sided than people think it is 7 weeks out.
“Dorothy Brown got off to a good start with her video with Judge Burrell. I think when the unions get behind O’Brien nad he makes a strong move he can take this. O’Brien maight outsmart everyone yet. I think the brown camp needs smarter managers. Toni does not have a change as far as I can see, but she is a nice lady.”
- Chicago Cynic - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 5:22 pm:
MOON,
Before you make that call, you may want to ask yourself how Terry O’Brien formed companies, used his connection and got rich by servicing large corporate pollution sources while being in “public service.” He’s a classic, ethically challenged insider who has used his public position to get rich. Is this really the kind of person we need to trust with the county? I don’t think so.
Look, I’m not wild about Preckwinkle. I think she’s a pretty dull and lifeless candidate. And I think she’s been a bit too cozy with the Mayor. That said, to me this is a pretty easy choice.
- former clerk staffer - Saturday, Dec 12, 09 @ 7:17 pm:
is anyone else creeped out by Dorothy “Call Me Madame” Brown’s constant press conference references to herself as “WE”? Is she hiding another crooked politician inside herself?
Here’s what she had to say at her press conference:
“WE are pleased with this poll, but WE are cautiously optimistic about the poll, and WE know that WE have to work hard,” Brown said at a news conference today. “WE want all 26 percent of those undecided voters to realize what the other voters have realized, that WE have the proven track record.”
“WE were very pleased with the poll,” Brown said. “What that tells is that people are looking for a proven leader, with a proven track record of reform, innovation and saving taxpayer dollars. WE can no longer afford business as usual, no longer afford politics as usual, because people are hurting.”
(emphasis added)
ewww. Who’s “WE”???