* Hot off the presses…
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Illinois voters finds Giannoulias ahead of Kirk 42% to 39%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and 15% are undecided.
In October, the two men were tied at 41% each. In mid-August, Kirk held a modest 41% to 38% lead over Giannoulias.
So, Giannoulias has managed to flip the numbers since August. The other Democrats still trail Kirk, but they’re closing the gap…
Kirk remains ahead of another Democratic hopeful, Cheryle Jackson, president of the Chicago Urban League and a former top aide to disgraced Governor Rod Blagojevich, but his lead has shrunk dramatically. Ahead of Jackson by 17 points – 47% to 30% - in October, he now leads just 42% to 39%. Four percent (4%) like another candidate, and 15% are not sure.
The Republican holds a similar 42% to 38% lead over Chicago Inspector General David Hoffman, another contender for the Democratic senatorial nomination. Kirk led Hoffman 43% to 33% in October. Seventeen percent (17%) are undecided, while three percent (3%) favor another candidate.
* Meanwhile…
Fifty-one percent (51%) approve of Governor Pat Quinn’s performance. Forty-seven percent (47%) disapprove. But Illinois voters are nearly three times as likely to strongly disapprove rather than strongly approve of the job he’s doing.
President Obama’s Illinois approval/disapproval numbers are 58-42, and that’s way better than Rasmussen’s national number of 47-51. Running against Obama is not a great idea here.
* From the toplines…
A proposal has been made to house some Guantanamo prison inmates in Illinois at the Thomson correctional facility. Do you favor or oppose housing Guantanamo prisoners at the Thomson correctional facility in Illinois?
39% Favor
51% Oppose
10% Not sure
No surprise there. The crosstabs show that Republicans oppose the plan 70-28, while a plurality of Democrats support it, 49-37.
Quinn’s job approval…
8% Strongly approve
43% Somewhat approve
25% Somewhat disapprove
22% Strongly disapprove
1% Not sure
His support remains soft, but the opposition is strengthening.
Afghanistan is becoming somewhat of an issue in the Democratic US Senate primary, with Cheryle Jackson and David Hoffman questioning the president’s new plan. But the crosstabs show large support for the president’s proposal among Democrats. 62 percent of Democrats “overall” favor the plan, 60 percent of liberals back it and 82 percent of African-Americans support it as well. Jackson is the most opposed of all the candidates, but that issue doesn’t appear to work well with African-American voters.
How it was done…
This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Illinois was conducted by Rasmussen Reports December 9, 2009. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
*** UPDATE 1 *** From a Mark Kirk press release…
Kirk Widens Lead over Giannoulias among Key Independent Voters to 34 Points in Latest Rasmussen Poll
Survey Shows Kirk and Giannoulias Remain in Statistical Dead Heat despite Democrat’s Network TV Ad Blitz
Northbrook, Ill. – A non-partisan poll released by Rasmussen Reports today shows Republican Congressman and Navy veteran Mark Kirk widening his lead over Democrat Alexi Giannoulias among key independent voters to 34 points despite Giannoulias’ early launch of network television ads to boost his numbers.
Responding to TV ads launched by Democrat David Hoffman, Giannoulias launched his own network television ad campaign at the beginning of the month to boost his name recognition and favorable ratings. But according to the Rasmussen survey, Kirk maintains a 50-32 favorable to unfavorable rating compared to Giannoulias’ 48-36 fav/unfav. Kirk holds a net positive strongly favorable/unfavorable rating of 13-8 while Giannoulias holds an even intensity ratio of 14-14.
The survey released today shows Kirk leading Giannoulias among key independent voters 54-20. In October, Rasmussen showed Kirk leading Giannoulias among this group 53-24. While the October poll showed both Kirk and Giannoulias at 41 with a 4.5-point margin of error, the survey released today shows Giannoulias with a slight 42-39 edge – remaining a statistical dead heat within the margin of error. A November 3rd poll by Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies showed Kirk with a 44-38 advantage.
“Despite more than a week of Giannoulias network television advertising, Congressman Kirk widened his lead over Alexi Giannoulias among key independent voters to 34 points without any television advertising from his own campaign,” Kirk spokesman Eric Elk said. “In addition, the survey shows Congressman Kirk and Alexi Giannoulias remain in a statistical dead heat. With a proven record of fighting tax increases, reining in spending and spurring economic growth, Congressman Mark Kirk brings the experience, integrity and reform-minded leadership Illinois needs to create jobs, end corruption and get our state back on track.”
*** UPDATE 2 *** From Giannoulias spokesperson Kati Phillips…
“Bizarre press release aside (which shows him losing), Mark Kirk can’t hide the fact that voters tend not to like flip-floppers who put politics before principles. Whether it’s having it both ways on earmarks, women’s rights, cap n trade, or Sarah Palin’s endorsement, voters know a pander bear when they see one.”
- shore - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 12:09 pm:
Until we know the extent of the blago trial these polls showing democrats ahead are meaningless.
I would however like my favorite congressman to start getting to a place where he stays in one spot on an issue.
Obama’s numbers are worse than the ones he had when he was elected in 2008 and got 62 percent of the vote.
- 47th Ward - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 12:12 pm:
Dear Congressman Kirk,
How is that move to the right working out for you?
- AlexiAlbatross - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 12:29 pm:
Might be burying the lead on this one, Rich.
David Hoffman, after being a politician for just three months, and with limited name recognition, is polling 38% in a US Senate race.
Stunning.
This guy has got everything he needs to win in both the primary and the general.
And no albatross to be seen…
- Rich Miller - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 12:32 pm:
===Might be burying the lead on this one, Rich.===
If anything, the more interesting story is that a former spokesperson for Rod Blagojevich is doing even better than Hoffman, who has had nothing but positive press in his public service.
- The Doc - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 12:35 pm:
==Until we know the extent of the blago trial these polls showing democrats ahead are meaningless==
Saying it doesn’t make it so, Shore. What would have been your response if the numbers were reversed?
It’s also worth mentioning that Rasmussen typically slants R, at least relative to most other pollers.
- Obamarama - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 12:36 pm:
===If anything, the more interesting story is that a former spokesperson for Rod Blagojevich is doing even better than Hoffman===
She also has the highest “very unfavorables” of the group before anyone has bothered to go negative on her yet. Just sayin.
- AlexiAlbatross - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 12:37 pm:
Re: former spokesperson:
Given the dynamics of this race (this ain’t 1992), it’s Hoffman vs. Alexi here.
The Hoffman campaign can get nothing but comfort from these numbers.
- wordslinger - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 12:39 pm:
Hoffman could use a new TV spot. His talking into the camera doesn’t have legs. He might want to do more than one take next time, too.
- Rich Miller - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 12:42 pm:
===Given the dynamics of this race (this ain’t 1992), it’s Hoffman vs. Alexi here.===
Only if Jackson raises no money.
- Dan - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 12:45 pm:
The most important take away from the poll is that Hoffman has been around for three months and is already within the margin of error against Kirk and has the best potential upside because he doesn’t have Alexi or Cheryle’s baggage.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 12:48 pm:
Albatross:
Given that Hoffman has based his entire campaign on the argument that Alexi is unelectable, I don’t know how you, Hoffman, his campaign, or any of his supporters can take comfort in these numbers.
Moreover, Hoffman has implied on more than one occasion that he’s the only candidate to take on Kirk, while this poll shows he’s the worst candidate to take on Kirk.
Finally, while Hoffman and Dan Seals have publicly opposed sending more troops to Afghanistan, atleast today the overwhelming majority of voters in Illinois support President Obama’s decision.
Step away from the kool-aid, friend.
- 47th Ward - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 12:49 pm:
===Only if Jackson raises no money.===
I still believe Carol Moseley Braun was a vastly superior candidate in 1992 than Cheryle Jackson is today. Actually, it isn’t even close.
As for dynamics, whether Hoffman and Giannoulias go nuclear on each other, or whether Jackson raises enough to go on Chicago TV for a solid two-weeks of massive exposure is hard to predict. So the dynamics could change in a way that makes this resemble 1992, but there is still the resume issue and past electoral success Braun held that Jackson doesn’t.
This ain’t 1992 (yet), but Robinson Jackson ain’t ever going to be Moseley Braun.
- AlexiAlbatross - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 12:54 pm:
Yellow Dog:
Try this math– 3 months, 38% and gaining.
6 six weeks to go, against an albatross candidate, with 4 solid weeks of people paying attention. And debates.
Comfort.
- TTL, III - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 12:55 pm:
I think the most important thing this poll does is blow a hole in what has been Hoffman’s #1 argument of why Alexi shouldn’t be elected: he can’t beat Kirk. This poll shows, contrary to Hoffman’s argument, that actually Alexi is the ONLY one who beats Kirk.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 12:55 pm:
=== The most important take away from the poll is that Hoffman has been around for three months and is already within the margin of error against Kirk ===
This poll shows that my left shoe is within the margin of error of beating Mark Kirk, but I wouldn’t necessarily recommend electing a shoe to the U.S. Senate.
Although as a candidate, I prefer my left shoe over Hoffman. Atleast my shoe wouldn’t spend all of its time during the General Election campaign attacking other Democrats, labor unions, even criticizing President Obama’s foreign policy.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 1:00 pm:
Albatross:
This is a general election poll, not a Democratic primary poll.
And what it shows is Mark Kirk’s “fall from grace”, not David Hoffman picking up steam.
I’ve seen Hoffman speak. He couldn’t debate his way out of a parking ticket, and given the way he delivers an oral argument, its not surprising he was unable to land a single major conviction against the Daley administration in four years.
But hey, maybe that’s why Daley picked him for the job.
But if you want to take comfort, take comfort. The Bush administration always had an argument for how they were “making progress” in Iraq too.
Heck, you’re poll numbers are so good, why not just declare “Mission Accomplished”?
- Anonymous - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 1:02 pm:
===
If anything, the more interesting story is that a former spokesperson for Rod Blagojevich is doing even better than Hoffman,…
===
Yup.
- Rich Miller - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 1:04 pm:
AA, take a breath, man. Trash talk will get you nowhere here. It would be better to spend your time coming up with an effective TV ad. That last one was horrid.
Also your October poll had your guy at 7 percent in the primary, with leaners.
- proud vet - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 1:17 pm:
After a week and a half on network TV, Alexi couldn’t break out of the margin of error? That’s kind of pathetic.
- Arthur Andersen - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 1:21 pm:
AlexiAlbatross, please change your blog name. “AA” is taken.
- Anonymous - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 1:22 pm:
Now you know what I’m going through, AA (the Real AA). lol
- anon - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 1:28 pm:
I thought Giannoulias would have more of a bump after his recent ad buys. A little suprised this is all it was.
- Segatari - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 1:28 pm:
> 47th Ward - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 12:12 pm:
>Dear Congressman Kirk,
>How is that move to the right working out for you?
Correction, people are finding out that he’s a phony conservative and nothing but an unelectable Rhino. Patrick Hughes is going to take the nomination away from Kirk as the real conservative.
- Carl 55 - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 1:34 pm:
Not only has Hoffman come out of no where in only three months, but he also has the experience and corruption free record that none of the other candidates have. Not only does he not have any connection to corrupt politics as usual of Illinois, he has record of rooting out corruption. He can be trusted to follow the interests of the people and not his own pocketbook. Something we have not seen in this state in a long time.
- One of the 35 - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 1:48 pm:
The fact that 51% approve of the governor’s performance is very discouraging. No wonder it is so hard to bring about meaningful change. Even a refusal to address perhaps the most serious financial problems in our state’s history, is not sufficient to generage an unfavorable rating in the public’s mind.
- Joe McCarthy and the Red Scarecrows - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 1:54 pm:
I think it’s interesting that Alexi is up on TV with a pretty significant buy and a positive spot (with no one going negative against him yet) and he’s still within the margin of error with Kirk.
- VanillaMan - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 2:02 pm:
So, this poll really doesn’t counter the previous ones, right?
If one takes into consideration the margin of error - it is just another snapshot at a close race.
- David Ormsby - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 2:03 pm:
–This poll shows that my left shoe is within the margin of error of beating Mark Kirk, but I wouldn’t necessarily recommend electing a shoe to the U.S. Senate.–
LOL. That’s pretty funny.
Thank you, YDD for a good, Friday afternoon, laugh.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 2:10 pm:
=== [Hoffman] has the experience and corruption free record that none of the other candidates have. Not only does he not have any connection to corrupt politics as usual of Illinois, he has record of rooting out corruption. He can be trusted to follow the interests of the people and not his own pocketbook. ===
What experience is that, exactly?
Never having held a private sector job?
Do you REALLY expect us to believe that his grand-daddy’s fortune had nothing to do with him getting into the University of Chicago, a plum job on the U.S. Senate staff, plum clerkships in the Supreme Court and federal court, plum job in the U.S. Attorney’s office?
I guess Hoffman is a political Rorshach test of sorts. You see a super hero, I see a guy who has bounced around from job-to-job, never really accomplishing much, but with a “guardian angel” looking over him all the way.
As for a “record of rooting out corruption,” what is that record, exactly? Did we end corruption in City Hall while I wasn’t looking? Or do you count issuing a memo weeks AFTER we all knew the parking meter deal was a disaster as an accomplishment?
Finally, let’s hope Hoffman doesn’t follow the interests of his own pocketbook, given that all of his family’s money comes from the insurance industry.
- 47th Ward - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 2:14 pm:
So YDD is not David Ormsby’s alter-ego?
- Pot calling kettle - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 2:15 pm:
I love the Mark Kirk spin on this. Big deal, Alexi is trying to appeal to Dem Primary voters now. It’s a long way to November.
- Small Town Liberal - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 3:01 pm:
Pander bear, thats great.
- Tank - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 3:04 pm:
Here’s a relevant blast from the past:
“Giannoulias has repeatedly claimed that his experience working at his family’s bank makes him qualified to be state treasurer, but late questions have arisen about some loans the bank made to an ex-mobster, and the candidate’s response has cast doubt on whether Giannoulias is ready — or even fit — to hold statewide office. [Rich Miller Column, Daily Southtown, March 20, 2006]
Rich, he still hasn’t answered these questions in any substantive way, so why are you in the tank for him?
- John Bambenek - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 3:18 pm:
“Pander bear”, yeah gotta give them kudos for that.
- Mary, Sterling - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 3:20 pm:
Flip-flopper says it all. Too bad, I was kinda liking Kirk’s take on Gitmo north. http://biggovernment.com/2009/12/11/exclusive-leaked-justice-department-memo-terrorists-to-be-moved-to-camp-gitmo-illinois/
- shore - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 3:27 pm:
yellow, you think if alexi was a working class kid from oak park he would have gotten into chicago, tulane law, played ball at east bank club where he met obama, or had millions to buy himself statewide office?
Kirk hasn’t put it into full gear yet publicly he’s shut down hughes, raised a ton of money, won the establishment. When he turns it on february 3rd then gets the bonus of the blago thing, he is really going to take off provided he still has the same positions he had when I started writing this comment 5 minutes ago.
- anon - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 3:27 pm:
wow! Giannoulias camp already going negative on Kirk, not even out of the primary yet..
Tank - are you really suprised? Like Obama, Giannoulias hasnt had to take a position on anything.
- Dennis - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 3:43 pm:
YDD what are you talking about? Why don’t we debate the different candidates in an honest way.
It’s funny that you attack you for his education. He graduated cum laude from Yale University. Then he graduated with high honors from the University of Chicago law school. This kind of academic excellence tends to lead to various opportunities such as a “plum job on the U.S. Senate staff” or “plum clerkships”.
He was an Assistant U.S. attorney for 8 years before he became Inspector General… not exactly “bouncing around from job-to-job”.
Do you honestly think that the Inspector General can “end” corruption in City Hall. Ha!
Now clearly you are a supporter of Alexi and I was also until I learned more about him.
What I started to ask myself was what has Alexi ACTUALLY DONE.
ALEXI lost $85 million for Illinois families by messing up the Bright Start college savings program.
ALEXI lent out loans to Tony Rezko, someone involved in a national prostitution operation, and other convicted felons.
ALEXI’S family’s bank is now the rated the second worst of its size in Illinois by Crain’s.
Sounds like another great Illinois politician.
- so... - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 3:45 pm:
The question to Kati Phillips is - what is Giannoulias position on cap and trade, Thomson, women’s rights, health reform bill and on and on…
- Jim - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 3:54 pm:
Rasmussen has had polls concerning Quinn’s approval and disappoval rate, I wonder when we see a Rasmussen Quinn/Hynes poll?
- Abe Froman - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 3:59 pm:
The race remains statistically tied as it was a month ago. There is very little news here except that Hoffman has gotten more name ID because of his commercials.
It is interesting that with Alexi and Hoff up on the air with pretty heavy buys the general match up is essentailly unchanged from a month ago.
Alexi can start the trash talking any time he wants. He will come out of the primary bruised and with much less money than Kirk. THEN the voters will compare the two candidates’ records and we’ll really see the numbers move…in Kirk’s favor.
- Obamarama - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 4:10 pm:
===working class kid from oak park===
Only a north shore kid would call Oak Park working class!
- scoot - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 4:14 pm:
This is good news for Kirk..it’s a tight race & the 34% gap is very impressive. Alexi is a statewide candidate, has been running TV ads, has Obama, and can’t break away.
And everyone knows it..even Ax & the White House..they wanted Lisa to run and they know Alexi is considered a weak candidate.
The numbers will go back and forth until next fall..but in the end I see Congressman Kirk being successful.
- Will County Woman - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 4:30 pm:
the other night i read candiate answers to the trib editorial board’s questions. kirk’ answers were vastly superior compared to his competition.
surprisingly i thought pat hughes responded well too, as did another republican senate hopefull.
- Bubs - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 4:31 pm:
I agree with Scoot. Alexi is running positive ad spots, which will have their effect. There are only eleven months to go, so let’s all jump to instant conclusions, why don’t we?
Still, I’m sure these numbers will spark joy in the Republican “Our Way or We Burn You Down” Far Right.
- Judy - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 4:40 pm:
Alexi’s positions…
Climate change: http://alexiforillinois.com/issues/energy-and-climate-change
Thomson:http://www.alexiforillinois.com/blog/giannoulias-thomson-plan-worth-considering
Women’s rights: http://alexiforillinois.com/issues/womens-rights
Health care reform: http://alexiforillinois.com/issues/healthcare
- Anonymous - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 5:03 pm:
Mary, the content of that “leak” is going to help, you know. And the “pander bear” thing while catchy is “shallow”, and is going to be pretty easy to beat down eventually.
- North Side Nelly - Friday, Dec 11, 09 @ 5:27 pm:
It’s kind of funny that everone is getting so worked up about this when basically no one else in the state knows who any of these people besides Mark Kirk are, that’s what’s going on here.
Hoffman’s definitely coming up, you have to give him that, and his record is impressive. No, in four years he didn’t end all corruption in Chicago, but he did bring some very shady deals to light. He’s a good lawyer, not a superhero.
People make a big deal of his winning a state-wide office, but let’s be serious, it was State Treasurer. He could have sent four relatives to the polls that day and won because no ones cares about that race. Everything he’s done has been an epic fail, from being given a pity job at his family’s bank to losing his best freind Obama’s support in one terrible term as treasurer.
Once people start paying attention to this race, which probably won’t be until mid-January, we’ll see some real numbers, and I bet Hoffman keeps picking up steam.
- bored now - Monday, Dec 14, 09 @ 8:54 am:
dennis’ argument is counterintuitive. i would think if one were going to blame the crash of the stock market on alexi — clearly a power he must have that is completely separate from his job as illinois’ treasurer — that this would be an argument in favor of electing alexi to the senate, not one against. if alexi can make the stock market crash as a public servant, can we afford to allow him to become a private citizen again? wouldn’t that just bring down our entire global economic system?
i dunno, but i want a person with that much power and influence as my representative in washington. it would give us clout. dennis sold me. if alexi can crash the stock market, then i want him as my next u.s. senator…