Preckwinkle ahead in Trib poll
Friday, Jan 22, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Toni Preckwinkle leads the race for Cook County Board President, according to a new Tribune poll. The poll has it 36 for Preckwinkle (up from 20), 24 percent for Dorothy Brown (down from 29), 16 percent for Terry O’Brien (up from 11) and 11 for Todd Stroger (down from 14). 14 percent are still undecided. Keep in mind that polling Democratic primary races in Cook County is very difficult. More…
Democratic voters with a favorable impression of Preckwinkle have doubled from 23 percent last month to 45 percent now. Her favorable impression among white voters also doubled to 54 percent. Those factors help explain why she has the support of 46 percent of white voters in the contest.
O’Brien, the lone white candidate, has the backing of 25 percent of white voters.
Among black voters, Brown scored 36 percent support, Preckwinkle had 24 percent, Stroger had 23 percent and O’Brien 4 percent. […]
The poll showed Brown losing support among suburban county voters as her opponents in recent weeks publicly questioned her practice of accepting gifts, including cash, from employees.
More on Brown’s “Jeans Day” scandal…
Her office promises a “full accounting” of money is spent from the program that allows circuit court clerk employees to pay $2 or $3 to wear jeans in the office.
For years, employees have complained about the practice.
Brown recently told the Tribune that all the money collected either goes to charities or into a fund that pays for an annual employee appreciation awards ceremony.
“It’s a voluntary thing,” said Brown, noting the jeans practice is not held every Friday. “If they want to do it, fine, because blue jeans is not our attire, and you have to have on a tag saying I’m wearing blue jeans because…But they want to wear blue jeans and not pay — is that what it is?”
Discuss.
* Other campaign stuff…
* Stroger badly trails rivals in fund-raising
* Stroger squirrels away $500,000 in campaign contributions
* Stroger and the Big Tent
* GOP rivals fight for chance at upset in Cook Co. president’s race
* Our choices for County Board
* Cook Co. Dist. 17 Dem hopefuls wrangle over resumes
* Questions over insurance info in Kane County board race
* Dist. 21 hopefuls express views on big issues
* Four Republicans vying for 11th Congressional District seat
* Hastert, Hultgren vie for GOP nomination in Congress bid
* Rodirguez says opponent misrepresented her Rt. 53 stand
* Illinois House endorsements
* House incumbents have big lead in campaign donations
* Area legislative candidates disclose fundraising
* Bond outraises challenger in 31st Senate, but Schmidt has more left
* Sheriff candidates promote restructuring of department
* GOP candidates for Livingston Co. sheriff square off in debate
- lake county democrat - Friday, Jan 22, 10 @ 10:46 am:
My favorite story today was Monique Davis — isn’t admitting you are in possession of property that belongs to someone else grounds for a citizen’s arrest or something?
If the media accurately reported Preckwinkle’s relationship with Dobry and the anti-semitism that brought her to office, she wouldn’t be making so much ground in the burbs (mind you, I think she’s the most qualified of the 4 candidates, I just think for people of good faith that her race over Evans and the aftermath wrt Dobry should automatically disqualify her. The only exception I’d make for that principle would be the presidency — too much power rides on it).
- George - Friday, Jan 22, 10 @ 10:47 am:
Finally…
- lake county democrat - Friday, Jan 22, 10 @ 10:49 am:
Hey Rich, on that incumbent fundraising thing, how does the Supreme Court ruling yesterday impact the states? Does this mean corporations and unions will now be able to spend unlimited money to unseat or elect a, say, state representative, or judge?
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Friday, Jan 22, 10 @ 10:55 am:
when Dorothy Brown says the money goes to charity, she means “Dorothy Brown.”
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Friday, Jan 22, 10 @ 10:55 am:
lake county:
The answer is “Yes.”
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Friday, Jan 22, 10 @ 10:58 am:
I expect support among black leaders to coalesce around Preckwinkle as the most viable black candidate.
Don’t be surprised to see Preckwinkle on the palm cards of alot of Brown and Stroger “supporters” on Election Day.
- Stones - Friday, Jan 22, 10 @ 11:01 am:
Maybe it’s just me but this pay to wear jeans story is really overblown. Many offices already do it. The real story is the lack of accounting practices in Dorothy Brown’s office.
Brown isn’t exactly my cup of tea but I think this one is a bit unfair unless someone can show that some of this money made it into her pocket.
- ZC - Friday, Jan 22, 10 @ 11:11 am:
The lack of accounting practices is enough. They collect what must be thousands and thousands of dollars or more, from government employees, and nobody can show a paper trail for what happens to it? Imagine this now multiplied tenfold, Cook County wide.
After the new Boston Massacre, and the Supreme Court’s latest decision, I am glad that Toni Preckwinkle has given us liberal Dems some good news for a change. Go Toni!
- wordslinger - Friday, Jan 22, 10 @ 11:13 am:
On the radio this morning, Preckwinkle and O’Brien were scrapping like they thought they were going after a lot of the same votes.
- John Boy - Friday, Jan 22, 10 @ 11:16 am:
Someone want to clue me in as to how Preckwinkle got this reputation as a ‘reformer’?
- George - Friday, Jan 22, 10 @ 11:28 am:
John Boy -
By not being Todd Stroger or Dorothy Brown.
- Sam E. - Friday, Jan 22, 10 @ 11:35 am:
Rich is correct when he mentions the difficulty of polling Dem primary races in Cook, so we should be careful not to jump to any conclusions. But since the Trib polled “likely voters” instead of just “Democrats,” there are some interesting nuggets here, particularly given the breakdown of the white vote.
We all anticipate a perhaps historic low turnout given the early date of the primary. For years, the assumption has been that would be good for O’Brien and other organization candidates — making Feb. 2nd a “precinct captain’s election.” Well the old organizations are all but dead. Just ask John Fritchey and Pat O’Connor who thought they could win a low turnout special election for Congress last year because to their organizational support. None of the committeemen who endorsed Fritchey could carry him and O’Connor barely won a majority in his own ward.
The near death of the Regular Democratic Organization in Cook County means there are no “precinct captain’s elections” anymore. Low turnout primaries in Cook County will become more and more like low turnout primaries in the rest of the country — they will be dominated by white liberals and black voters.
The Trib polling numbers display that trend. Preckwinkle leads O’Brien among white voters 46 percent to 25 and has a 54 percent approval rating among whites.
That’s why identifying who the “likely voters” are is so crucial. O’Brien’s key to victory is getting angry white moderate and conservative voters in places like Orland Park and Schaumburg to bother with pulling Dem ballots in two weeks.
There’s no doubt those voters exist, but if the Trib poll is right, they are not “likely” to show up in this Dem primary. Which could mean the election would be decided in Preckwinkle’s favor by a dispoportionately large liberal, white voting block.
- ZC - Friday, Jan 22, 10 @ 11:40 am:
Well, she voted against the parking meter lease for starters. One of only four aldermen to do so. She voted against the La Salle Central TIF. She has never been one of the Mayor’s buddies, but she’s not so rabidly anti-Mayor that she automatically opposes his ideas Just Cause. She has voted for his budgets and against his budgets. Her base is Hyde Park so she’s never needed to rely on Daley for her reelection. By Chicago standards, she’s pretty independent.
- Vibes - Friday, Jan 22, 10 @ 11:46 am:
Rich, the footnote on the poll says 503 “Illinois” voters (not Cook) were the sample. Presumably — if they did a solid poll — that’s a Cook oversample for a statewide poll they’ll release Sunday and next week on the Gov’s /Senate race. Can you confirm that 503 was really the Cook sample? If it’s smaller than that then it’s almost irrelevant given your point about the difficulty of a Cook poll.
- lake county democrat - Friday, Jan 22, 10 @ 11:48 am:
Obama aside, I never discount a possible Bradley Effect either.
- regular democrat - Friday, Jan 22, 10 @ 12:05 pm:
Rich-you sound skeptical about the polling numbers. Please explain if you have time. I am curious why it is so difficult to poll A Cook County primary. Thanks
- Boone Logan Square - Friday, Jan 22, 10 @ 12:17 pm:
The jeans story fits into an existing narrative about Brown being corrupt; added to the birthday party contributions, it makes her look like a petty crook at a time when voters are really not happy about crooked politicians.
Has anyone here seen a Dorothy Brown TV ad? They look really shoddy…I made the comment last night that the ad she’s running now looks like it was put together after hours at a public access channel.
Preckwinkle’s messaging is pretty slick, and even though the Ben Franklin ad is cheesy, it stands out as being sunny and positive at a time when most of the political ads on TV are relentlessly negative.
Media buys aren’t everything; perhaps one of the trailing candidates will be unusually successful at getting the vote out. I haven’t seen or heard anything that would cause me to believe that, at least not on the West Side. The Tribune poll may have a 4.4 MoE, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the moment it shows for Preckwinkle is real.
- Phineas J. Whoopee - Friday, Jan 22, 10 @ 12:35 pm:
I have spoken to several people that have voted early and they have voted for Preckwinkle. These are from primarily white wards and suburbs. I am always amazed at how the electorate sifts through the garbage and usually gets it right.
This race is over.
- Richard Afflis - Friday, Jan 22, 10 @ 12:44 pm:
None of the candidates in any of the races are perfect. Ms. Preckwinkle comes across as such a thoughtful, dilligent and honest person, it is refreshing to see her possibly win. I have a lot of hope that her win will be good for the county and the integrity of county government.
At the same time, I am realistic enough to know that even as county board president, there is only so much she can do and she will have her share of mis-steps as well.
- Honest Abe - Friday, Jan 22, 10 @ 12:50 pm:
Dorothy Brown is a cross between an embarrassment and a mediocrity. She has done a poor job of managing her clerical position.
I am amazed that she hold two graduate degrees because of her inability to manage her current office. The Clerk of the Circuit Court’s office is a model of inefficiency and patronage hiring run amok. This latest flap is not the first petty scandal that has seen Brown shaking down her employees for gifts and cash.
Exchanging Stroger for Brown is trading one incompetent for another.
- Third Generation Chicago Native - Friday, Jan 22, 10 @ 1:38 pm:
I predict Preckwinkle to slam dunk the 13th Ward.
Seriously, Preckwinkle was a teacher, a southsider, and more people can relate to her than, Brown (Attorney, CPA) and they have had it with Stroger. Prekwinkle is also well liked in her 4th Ward.
- SAKAMURA GREG - Friday, Jan 22, 10 @ 1:41 pm:
Anyone see the Cook for Lt Gov Poll?
- Carl Nyberg - Friday, Jan 22, 10 @ 1:56 pm:
==Maybe it’s just me but this pay to wear jeans story is really overblown. Many offices already do it.==Stones
Which other politicians (or any other employers) relax the office dress code for a cash contribution?
- northsidep - Friday, Jan 22, 10 @ 2:28 pm:
The firm that conducted the poll, Market Shares Corp., had Divine losing to O’Malley by 20+ points two days before the election I was just told. Also, does anyone else think that 13% undecided is just way too low in this race?
- YEP - Friday, Jan 22, 10 @ 2:39 pm:
Great day for Preckwinkle just picked up endorsement of SEIU
- Oakparker - Friday, Jan 22, 10 @ 2:43 pm:
I had read that the biggest turnout in early voting in the city was coming from black machine wards and white ethnic machine wards. If interest in the primary is low, and the patronage jobs and contracts of black machine wards and townships are at stake, doesn’t this make Stroger a player on election day even with the Tribune poll? I think that there is a lot more at stake to the ward and township organizations then there was in the Quigley congressional race.
- Emily Booth - Friday, Jan 22, 10 @ 5:40 pm:
I thinks it’s employee harrassment to hit your employees up for ‘contributions’. It’s harrassment when your coworkers continually do it. But apparently cash for jeans at work is not uncommon. Posters at the Trib article said it happened where they work.
The problem with this is it turns into a slush fund with no accounting. At the state of Illinois, this is an ethics violation. It’s a conflict of interest to accept cash payments from people you do business with (your employees).