* Not quite the whole story…
The Democratic party may not want Rod Blagojevich, but that doesn’t mean Democrats want the former governor to go to jail.
A Rasmussen poll released Sunday showed that party identity still does play a significant role in what Illinois voters think should happen to Blagojevich, currently on trial for corruption, including trying to sell President Barack Obama’s former Senate seat. The poll found 68 percent of Republicans saying Blagojevich should be convicted and sent off to prison, compared to only 44 percent of Democrats. In a column on Sunday, the Chicago Tribune’s John Kass dismissed the notion of political identity having any impact on a juror “in a Combine state when public money is on the dinner table.”
In reality, the crosstabs (subscribers only) show that a 44-28 plurality of self-identified Democrats favor imprisoning Blagojevich. Either a majority or a plurality of all but three demographic groups favor imprisoning Blagojevich.
A 55-18 majority of African-Americans oppose imprisonment, as does a 36-31 plurality of those who make less than $20K per year. A tiny 45-44 plurality of those unsure of whether to repeal the national health insurance law is also opposed to imprisonment. Keep in mind that these small subgroups will have a very large margin of error, so there is a real danger of outliers and false results here.
Also, keep in mind that the poll was conducted June 7th, before Lon Monk’s damaging testimony began. Still, this is a big movement from a December, 2008 Rasmussen poll taken two days after he was arrested when 79 percent of likely voters said Blagojevich should go to jail, including 73 percent of Democrats, 68 percent of African-Americans and 69 percent of those making under $20K per year.
Toplines…
* Do you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable impression of Rod Blagojevich?
5% Very favorable
8% Somewhat favorable
16% Somewhat unfavorable
69% Very unfavorable
2% Not sure
* How closely are you following news reports about former Governor Rod Blagojevich’s trial on federal corruption charges?
31% Very closely
38% Somewhat closely
7% Not very closely
8% Not at all
0% Not sure
* Should Blagojevich go to jail for his actions?
57% Yes
17% No
26% Not sure
* After taking Friday off, the trial has resumed this morning…
Lon Monk is back on the stand saying he witnessed Rod Blagojevich grow upset when he learned the hospital wasn’t returning his brother’s phone calls soliciting campaign contributions.
“He wasn’t happy, he got up and said: ‘Screw these guys,’ and got on the phone,” Monk testified Blagojevich said in a meeting with him and Robert Blagojevich.
Monk said Rod Blagojevich then called the governor’s office and talked to an aide about the status of state funds for the hospital.
“Don’t do anything with it until I talk to you,” Monk said he overheard Rod Blagojevich say.
Oof.
And…
Monk told jurors this morning that it went down like this: Blagojevich wanted Johnston to raise $100,000 for Friends of Blagojevich in exchange for signing a bill that would extend cash payments to the horse-racing industry a windfall from Illinois’ nine casinos.
Monk, who also was a lobbyist for Johnston, testified he knew this illegal and wanted to get the contribution in hand as quickly as possible.
“I was trying to get the contribution as quickly as I could so there would be more time between the contribution and the signing of the bill,” Monk said.
* This story isn’t as bad as it may seem…
Potential jurors waiting to be questioned in Rod Blagojevich’s case discussed the trial’s news coverage with each other last week, apparently flouting a judge’s order just days after they were told to stop reading or listening to such news, a former prospective juror told the Chicago Sun-Times.
But only one of the chosen jurors was in the room at the time, and she didn’t participate in the discussion.
* My weekly syndicated newspaper column is about the trial coverage…
Keep in mind while watching coverage of the Rod Blagojevich trial that reporters in the courtroom have a far keener understanding of what is going on than do the jurors. Their perceptions are not necessarily the same as the jurors’ views. So, their coverage may not match up to how the case will turn out.
For most of the jurors, this is their first time in a courtroom. Unlike most of the reporters at the trial, this experience is quite new to all but two of them who have served on juries before. And, unlike many of the reporters, they have limited knowledge of what the trial is about and the context of the charges.
Most of the jurors know little of Blagojevich and his administration except for their skimming of the local news and maybe seeing him a time or two on TV entertainment programs. One juror said she checks the news “only for the weather.”
If you’re reading this column, then you most likely have more interest in politics than the average citizen. So, to people like us, some of those jurors may seem ignorant and even clueless. But people like us aren’t “normal” citizens. We pay attention to politics closely because it’s in our blood.
Most people, like many of those jurors, live their lives almost totally divorced from day-to-day political machinations.
I’ve often tried to explain this political disconnect with my “Hockey Theory.” And it probably applies to the Blagojevich trial as well.
I never played hockey as a kid. I can barely skate on ice. I have a vague memory of us owning a couple of hockey sticks back in the day, but my brothers and I probably just used them to terrorize each other.
I’ve seen two hockey games in person. One of my earliest memories of television is of a Blackhawks game, but other than that I’ve only watched parts of a few games on TV. I’ve never watched a complete game.
I almost never read about hockey in the papers and don’t know the players, although I am familiar with some historical names.
I’m well aware that the Blackhawks won the Stanley Cup Final, and I know they have some great players, but I’m almost ashamed to say that I didn’t watch more than a few minutes of any of the playoff games and couldn’t tell you who the Blackhawks’ big names are if you put a gun to my head.
Two million people showed up in downtown Chicago to celebrate the Blackhawks winning the Stanley Cup, but I wasn’t one of them, and I am more amazed by the turnout than what was said and who was there.
Plain and simple, I’m just not a hockey fan. I suppose I have too many other things to occupy my time.
That’s pretty much the way most people (half of whom don’t even vote) view politics in this country. And it’s probably somewhere around the same level of knowledge that many, if not most, of Blagojevich’s jurors have about his alleged crimes and misgovernance.
So while many of us can list many of the reasons why Blagojevich is guilty as sin (just as Blackhawks fans can tell you in detail how their team won the big trophy), many of his jurors are pretty much in the dark at the moment.
It’s not just ignorance that makes them different. If they didn’t know that Blagojevich’s friend, Chris Kelly, committed suicide rather than testify against his buddy, they won’t learn it at the trial, either. The same sort of thing goes for convicted felon Stu Levine. There will be no mention of Levine’s excessive drug use and heavy partying at the trial.
Combine all that with the decree that jurors must always keep an open mind and the result is they will almost undoubtedly see things differently than will the reporters who are covering the trial and the people who are following that coverage.
Jurors often see things in a way that “insiders” don’t, and they make judgments on things that get past some of us. George Ryan’s corruption trial produced countless banner headlines, but some of Ryan’s jurors said there was no single “smoking gun” that did Ryan in. Rather it was the overwhelming amount of evidence produced by the prosecution that sealed the former governor’s fate.
* Related…
* Blagojevich trial: Day 7
* Jury makeup could hold key to ultimate Blagojevich verdict
* Blagojevich trial: Dismissed jurors speak out
* From one juror to another: Put your life on hold
* Journal Star: Blagojevich trial unlikely to do state’s battered reputation any favors
* Zorn: Blogging for Blago
* Blagojevich Trial Also Good Teaching Material
- Rob_N - Monday, Jun 14, 10 @ 11:09 am:
Is that “poll reporting” or “narrative setting”?
- wordslinger - Monday, Jun 14, 10 @ 11:31 am:
Nice column, Rich, but I’m not drinking the city’s Kool Aid on 2 million at the celebration.
I don’t think that’s possible in that space. I bet it was closer to the original projection of 350,000.
- Secret Square - Monday, Jun 14, 10 @ 11:38 am:
If 2 million really did show up at the Blackhawks victory parade, that would be the second biggest crowd in U.S. history — second only to the Boston Red Sox World Series victory parade in 2004 (3 million) and more than attended the Obama inaugural (1.8 million).
- Plutocrat03 - Monday, Jun 14, 10 @ 11:44 am:
I find it difficult to believe that 1 of 5 people in the Metro area was downtown for Blackhawks celebration.
I can believe more appeared than the estimated 350K that celebrated the White Sox win, but the pictures do not seem show show anywhere near the numbers the city shows for the 4th of July festivities.
My question is what is the point of this kind of gross exaggeration?
- George - Monday, Jun 14, 10 @ 12:01 pm:
Wow! He shot up to 13%!
- George - Monday, Jun 14, 10 @ 12:07 pm:
Pluto - I definitely agree it wasn’t 2 million people.
But the pictures only show a part of the story. They show the rally area around michigan and wacker.
The crowd was jam-packed along the whole 8 blocks of Washington from Wacker to Michigan, and then the whole 4 blocks of Michigan from Washington up to Wacker.
From my limited perspective, I would estimate that crowd at 750,000 or so.
And since I was at both the Blackhawks parade and the Sox parade, I can directly compare.
The Blackhawks parade was significantly larger. Significantly (maybe 3 or 4 times as large). The post-parade rally of the Blackhawks was also significantly larger.
- George - Monday, Jun 14, 10 @ 12:09 pm:
I would also say that Red Sox parade wasn’t anywhere close to 3 million people.
- Loop Lady - Monday, Jun 14, 10 @ 12:24 pm:
if Rod doesn’t serve time, his legal staff should be commended…it will be a miraculous outcome…
as the trial drones on, I am becoming inclined to think he may just get off, recoup his money from his offshore account, and run for the Presidency in Haiti or something…
- Cincinnatus - Monday, Jun 14, 10 @ 12:28 pm:
* Should Blagojevich go to jail for his actions?
57% Yes
17% No
26% Not sure
17% is about 2 jurors in a pool of 12 if the pool in any way is close to the representative cross-section in the poll. Don’t know what that says, but it may reinforce my long held opinion that Rod has a good chance of walking…
- Rich Miller - Monday, Jun 14, 10 @ 12:30 pm:
===my long held opinion that Rod has a good chance of walking===
Your opinion assumes that the feds wouldn’t retry him after a mistrial. That would be wrong. Also, read my column. Average people aren’t getting the info that the jury is getting.
- Cincinnatus - Monday, Jun 14, 10 @ 12:52 pm:
Rich,
“Your opinion assumes that the feds wouldn’t retry him after a mistrial.”
Right. But, how many bites at the apple will the government take, especially given the costs of a new trial? When the polling of the jury occurs, if 1 or 2 jurors will not convict, I can see the possibility of a re-trial. However, if 4 or 5 vote not guilty, that presents a different dynamic altogether.
I understand your point about the jury receiving information the average person doesn’t get. But the media is reporting the trial every day, in great detail, so as time goes on, more and more people get the story being presented by the prosecution. And we still haven’t heard from the defense. I don’t know where his legal team fits into the rankings of high-poweredness, but if they come up with a compelling defense, we need to take that into account, too. The cases presented will in some peripheral way affect a re-trial jury pool.
One other thing to consider is how long the Obama Administration wants this festering pile of doggie doo doo to remain in the front pages of the media. I grant Obama actually looks pretty good in the facts of his involvement. Unfortunately, Obama’s role is lost in the soup since the only thing that the MSM reports is “selling Obama’s seat.” I can’t believe that politically they want that phrase, and any link to Blago, hanging around during the 2012 election cycle.
- Sacks Romana - Monday, Jun 14, 10 @ 2:04 pm:
I think the “overwhelming amount of evidence produced by the prosecution” will also seal Blagojevich’s fate, but I imagine there has to be a smoking gun for at least two or three of the 24 counts he’s charged with.
I keep talking to non-political people, and they think Blagojevich will find a sneaky way to get off on a technicality. They’re thinking of this like a murder trial where the prosecution is trying to prove a complicated case concerning one crime. I think it’s close to impossible that he’ll be found guilty on all 24 counts, but it also seems impossible that he’s found not guilty on all of them as well.
- Some Guy - Monday, Jun 14, 10 @ 2:12 pm:
Rich’s hockey analogy has a lot of truth to it.
The pre-trial information those jurors were exposed to, statistically, is going to be pro-Blago campaign propaganda or the PR stuff Rod put out after the impeachment. All lies from Blago’s lie machine.
Plus, I am very depressed at the low level of knowledge these jurors came to the trial with. SHould persons so uninterested in their government participate in this process? Blago’s money was spent wooing the minority and economically poor sectors of the electorate disproportionally; offering them bread and circuses, free health care and anything he could think of, to get them “on his side”. I think that’s one reason the polling stats reflect as they do.
But I am heartened by considering that at least in the courtroom, every statement purported to be fact is going to have to be proven, any lies by Blago’s side will be answered on the spot, and no amount of Blago PR and ad money can affect that. Too bad Judy never got that kind of fair deal, we’d not be talking about this now.
I think that though they may be ignorant on civics, once the jury has the mountains of evidence explained to them, and talk over how unlikely it is that this is all a conspiracy against an innocent and virginal Milorad, they’ll come to the right conclusions about Rod. People all over are in an anti-incumbent mood, even the disinterested ones. One way of “sending a message” could be the jury voting to convict Rod.
I’m feeling positive about the chances for conviction.
- Ghost - Monday, Jun 14, 10 @ 2:32 pm:
I bet that opinion changes, as Rich mentioned, when those polled get more of the details.
it appears to me tha the average person thinks the entire case is over the senate seat, in part because of how narrow most of the reporting has been. It would have been interesting to ask those polled to gauge how informed they thought they were of the case; and do they know that the senate seat issue was a small piece of the case.
- VanillaMan - Monday, Jun 14, 10 @ 2:50 pm:
Blagojevich is a hockey name, so your metaphor wins again.
- really?? - Monday, Jun 14, 10 @ 8:07 pm:
Excellent analogy about hockey and politics. I dare say most state employees also fit your description of the jury and its understanding of politics. When’s break?
- Gregor - Monday, Jun 14, 10 @ 9:49 pm:
Maybe the jurors need to take the SJ-R’s Blago Quiz
http://extras.sj-r.com/quizzes/think-you-know-blagojevich
I got 14, and never attended Pepperdine!
I bet followers of capitol fax could write better trivia questions about Rod than these.
- HatShopGirl - Tuesday, Jun 15, 10 @ 4:26 am:
Agree with Rich, et al. I became a hockey fan in the last few minutes of the game. Most people who look at politics are the same, they jump onboard the train that’s pulling into the station. I think it’s too soon to prognosticate on what the Blago jury will do. He may become a casualty of the hatred people have against all politicians. And frying Blago is meant to send a message to all politicians, to stop messing with us.
Ya’ll are giving Blago what he wants: ATTENTION. He’s got all of us wrapped-around his little finger. If he broke wind in the courtroom he’d call it perfume and invite everyone to sniff. He’s like a used-car salesman and he’s got everyone jumping into the trunk of the lemon he’s selling.