I think when the history of the current crisis is written much of blame will be placed on the sharp fiscal contraction of state and local governments, which offset almost all of the fiscal stimulus at the federal level. I think economists will view this as a preventable error equivalent to the Fed’s passive shrinkage of the money supply in the early 1930s.
Many others, including myself, have been warning about this very real phenomenon for well over a year now, but DC just isn’t paying attention.
A June 3 report from the National Governors Association and the National Association of State Budget Officers shows that the states have cut aggregate spending by $74.4 billion, or 10.8 percent, since 2008. The expiration of $55 billion in temporary federal aid to the states could lead to further substantial spending cuts beginning on July 1.
Budget expert Stan Collender warned on June 8 that a sharp cutback in state spending mandated by state balanced budget requirements could have a negative effect on the economy as a whole. […]
A May paper from the Institute for the Study of Labor looks at the distributional consequences of cutting the pay of public sector workers based on the recent experience of Ireland. […]
A February study by economists Joshua Aizenman and Gurnain Kaur Pasricha found that fiscal contraction in the states offset almost 100% of the fiscal stimulus at the federal level in 2009.
* Yesterday was the first day that independents could file their petitions for the general election. These are always entertaining weeks. For instance…
The poor fellow can’t make up his mind what he wants to do.
Monday was the first day independent candidates could file to run for office in Illinois, but Scott Lee Cohen plans to wait until the last minute before finalizing his plans for governor.
Cohen, who previously won the Democratic primary race for lieutenant governor, plans to file his petitions June 21, the last available day, Cohen spokesman John Davis said.
“You’d like to have at least a little bit of drama,” Davis said. […]
But also waiting until the last day will be Mike Niecestro of Itasca, who also plans to file for the U.S. Senate race.
Niecestro says he has 27,000 signatures and expects to have as many as double that by the time he turns them in June 21.
“A little bit of drama”? Yeah. Like Cohen needs more of that.
Also, if Niecestro has 27,000 sigs today, I’m not sure how he doubles that in a week, unless they’re still coming in from all over the state. And considering Niecestro isn’t all that well known, that’s a bit doubtful. Not to mention that Niecestro told NBC5 he has collected over 40,000 signatures. Which is right?
Would Niecestro even favor drilling in Lake Michigan, if oil were discovered there?
“If there’s oil under Lake Michigan, why not?” he says. “Absolutely.”
Yeah. Stick with that promise. I’m sure it’ll work so well in the Chicago media market, which gets most of its drinking water from the lake. Niecestro also has a prediction…
“If I get my name on the ballot, Mark Kirk is going to go as far right as he can to get the conservative vote,” predicts Niecestro
Assuming he gets on the ballot, and that’s still a big “if,” Kirk will probably use stuff like “Drill, baby, drill in our fresh water supply!” to paint Niecestro as a crackpot.
Also, if you want to read a harshly critical take on people like Niecestro, then click here. It won’t disappoint.
* In other campaign-related news, the state Republican Party misfired badly with its first major attempt to use the Blagojevich trial against Pat Quinn and Alexi Giannoulias…
In a press release [yesterday], the Illinois Republican Party used a government exhibit from the case to point out that now-Gov. Pat Quinn and political consultant Pete Giangreco — who works for Democratic Senate candidate Alexi Giannoulias — attended a meeting with some of those who have been charged or convicted in the case.
The meeting, which included Alonzo “Lon” Monk, “Antoin “Tony” Rezko and Blagojevich, happened a week after the new governor’s inauguration in January 2003. According to testimony from Monk, nothing untoward occurred. It was just a discussion involving nearly 20 people about what Blagojevich should try to accomplish policy-wise in his first term.
So, prosecution witness Monk testified under oath that the meeting was no big deal, but this is the press release we get from the IL GOP…
Recently, the U.S. Attorney introduced “Government Exhibit January 2003 Schedule” – a section of Rod Blagojevich’s calendar showing a meeting between Blagojevich, Lon Monk, Tony Rezko, Pat Quinn, Pete Giangreco and other key Blagojevich insiders.
Lon Monk testified that kickback schemes were being discussed by this core group as early as 2003. Now seven years later, Quinn is running for governor while Pete Giangreco is serving as senior strategist for Alexi Giannoulias’ Senate campaign.
Asked about the wording of the release, state GOP Chairman Pat Brady, he said he could see how some people could read it like the GOP was accusing Quinn and Giangreco of being part of the conspiracy. But he said that wasn’t the intent.
“I can see what you’re saying. We aren’t insinuating that,” Brady said. “Abraham Lincoln did not write this (press release). That was not the intent. We were talking about that gang of four.”
Um, no, you weren’t.
…Adding… Click here to see the document in question.
* Related…
* Illinois Supreme Court Election Flooded with Money: Millions of dollars will likely be spent on Kilbride’s election this year, though no one is running against him. “Those of us who will be trying to defeat him,” said Ed Murnane, of the Illinois Civil Justice League. “We don’t even need a candidate.”
* Press Release: Today, Tenth Congressional District Candidate Dan Seals announced that Aviva Gibbs, currently Communications Director to U.S. Rep. Mike Quigley (D-IL), will be joining his campaign team. Gibbs will leave Mr. Quigley’s office to serve as Communications Director for Seals starting in early July.
* Dems seeking applications for 35th District candidate: O’Shea said local Democratic leaders are focused on finding the best candidate and on making it an “open and transparent” process. Unlike the lieutenant governor process, applicants’ information and applications will not be posted online, O’Shea said. “We haven’t really set a timetable. We want to make sure we take as much time as we need to,” O’Shea said. “In my conversations with the mayors and committeemen throughout the district, the thought is to come up with the best possible person to be the Democratic nominee on the November ballot.”
Gov. Pat Quinn is facing criticism after announcing a $6 million grant for the Museum of Broadcast Communications Friday.
The grant will finish the half-built museum at State and Kinzie. MBC founder and president Bruce DuMont says it is not an unusual use of public money.
“If you look historically at how the great museums of Chicago have been built and funded over the years, they’ve all received significant support from the state,” said DuMont. […]
“Broadcast museum doesn’t mean a thing to anybody in our streets,” said the Rev. Michael Pfleger of St. Sabina Parish. He doesn’t understand how the cash-strapped state with its $13 billion deficit can commit any money from its capital or operating budget to a museum when many neighborhoods are overwhelmed by violence.
He showed ABC7 two letters he’d received in the past week advising that the governor is considering cutting a $3 million statewide program for at-risk young people.
“Youth prevention and youth intervention for violence while we’re talking about broadcast museums and other things that are not being cut and are continuing to be out on the table? That’s unacceptable,” said Rev. Pfleger.
* The Question: With whom do you side in this? Dumont or Pfleger? Explain.
* And, for a bit of context, here’s a budget-related news roundup…
* Glenbard Dist. 87 wants more information from Springfield: Because of very conservative estimates made early this year, Glenbard High School District 87 officials consider themselves better off financially than they expected, but uncertain funding from Springfield still leaves them in a bind.
The recent controversy regarding statements Kirk has made about his military service seems to be taking a large toll on him. Only 10% of voters in the state think Kirk has been truthful about his military service while 45% think he has lied and 45% are unsure.
The good news for Kirk is that only 22% of voters say they’ve been following the story very closely, because among those folks Giannoulias has a 39-28 lead. That may be a short lived saving grace for Kirk though since Democrats will make sure voters are very familiar with the story by the fall.
The candidates for Senate are Democrat Alexi Giannoulias, Republican Mark Kirk, and Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones. If the election was today, who would you vote for?
31% Alexi Giannoulias
30% Mark Kirk
14% LeAlan Jones
24% Undecided
This poll represents progress for Giannoulias since PPP last looked at the race in early April. He now leads 31-30 where he previously trailed Kirk 37-33. The main thing that’s changed since then is voter perceptions of Kirk. His net favorability of +1 (24/23) has seen a decline of nine points to -8 (23/31). Giannoulias is just as unpopular as Kirk, sporting the exact same 23/31 favorability spread. But that’s not a new development for him- he was already at -7 (21/28) back in the spring. Nothing voters have learned about Giannoulias in the last three months has made them like him any less than they already did.
* The Green Party candidate is giving Kirk something to hope for…
The beneficiary of the voter disgust with both Giannoulias and Kirk is Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones. Despite being viewed favorably by only 2% of voters in the state he’s pulling 14% in the horse race. Posing a particular problem for Giannoulias is that Jones is getting a remarkable 26% of the black vote right now. Third party candidates often poll a lot better in the summer than they do by the fall so it will be interesting to see if these folks really stick with Jones or go back to the Democratic fold and that could end up being one of the defining stories of this race.
Racial breakdown…
Jones is actually slightly ahead of Giannoulias with independents…
Favorables…
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Alexi Giannoulias?
23% Favorable
31% Unfavorable
45% Not Sure
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Kirk?
23% Favorable
31% Unfavorable
46% Not Sure
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of LeAlan Jones?
2% Favorable
13% Unfavorable
84% Not Sure
It’s hard to see this race as anything but a pure tossup at this juncture but in Illinois a race between a flawed Democrat and a flawed Republican is probably going to end up in the Democratic column, and Giannoulias’ 5 point gain relative to Kirk is in the 10 weeks reflects that.
* You probably know about the “Truthers.” They’re the ones who insist that 9/11 was an “inside job.” They also have a bizarre theory about why Rod Blagojevich was “really” arrested.
According to them, Blagojevich was picked up by the feds because he dared to threaten Bank of America a few days earlier with the loss of all state business…
The impending prosecution of Blagojevich sends a powerful message to other governors, mayors, city council members around the country: don’t mess with the international banking cartel, the global financial mafia.
Your article just goes to show how epic this media failure is when it comes to the Blago trial. What Magical Current and what spell have you fallen under? AOL perhaps first and foremost. Just once I would like to see someone mention the Bank of America boycott! It was the last straw for the federal government. IT was not an action of a sinking life boat but rather an act of self-sacrifice. Watch ‘Rod Blagojevich Uncensored’ on youtube. Remember that when we take over we are going eat the bankers! [F-word expletive deleted] You!
As we have seen in the past year, the media has only tried to bad-name [Blagojevich’s] credibility, poke fun at his hair, call him names, or criticize his personal life. We Are Change, with the intention to provide the American people with the TRUTH, talked to Governor Blagojevich about his resistance to big banks, which is what really led to his arrest.
And here’s the video mentioned in that e-mail. Blagojevich does utter some expletives (no surprise there), so be careful if you’re on a work computer…
When told that they believe the former governor was arrested because of his stance on Bank of America, Blagojevich appears to agree, and talks about how he tried to bully the company into restoring credit to the struggling Republic Windows & Doors company, which is based in Chicago, by cutting off state business…
“I didn’t say ‘please,’ I just said, ‘Hey, you better do it…’ and then they arrest me.”
One of the Truthers then thanked Blagojevich for “standing up to those guys.” And Blagojevich goes all in…
“And the weekend before, this so-called crime spree, they’re liars. It’s all Bank of America.”
Adam is prompting repeated objections from the government, and all of them so far have been upheld by the judge. Government prosecutors have perhaps already objected more in the first 15 minutes of the day than Sam Adam Jr. objected for the entirety of the government’s three days of questioning Monk.
“It might be better if you use less loaded words,” Judge Zagel told Adam. Zagel has also cautioned him on the relevance of his questioning.
Sam Adam Jr. gets animated asking Monk if he remembers any details from the meetings where the four — Monk, Blagojevich, Rezko and Kelly — agreed to split up money off of state deals.
“I don’t remember,” Monk says repeatedly.
Adam is nearing him, then paces away. He points to the ex-governor and points in the air.
Adam notes it’s the first time in Monk’s adult life he was going to commit a felony and he can’t recall “one!” detail about what Tony Rezko wrote on the board.
Rod is sitting sideways with one arm lazily lying on the courtroom table, looking as if he’s enjoying this.
“I don’t know if we gave that much thought where the money was going to go,” Monk says. Rod starts quietly laughing to himself, then puts his hand over his mouth suppressing a smile.
* Mark Kirk is yet again appearing too defensive about his military record.
The Pentagon released a statement yesterday confirming that Kirk engaged in partisan political activities while on duty. From the Pentagon’s statement…
In December 2008, Commander Kirk, while on active duty, participated in video discussions in the media about the unfolding situation involving then-Governor Blagojevich of Illinois. Members of the Armed Forces on active duty may not participate in television discussions as an advocate for or against a partisan political party, candidate, or cause.
In July 2009, while on active duty in the Washington area, either Commander Kirk or a staff member posted a “twitter” to his Senate campaign web site that indicated he was on duty at the National Military Command Center. At the time, Commander Kirk was a candidate for the Senate. Candidates for political office may not participate in any campaign activities while on active duty. They may not update or revise their websites, and they must inform their campaign staff of the applicable restrictions.
These questions have been addressed by the campaign in the past and had there been any issues documented in Congressman Kirk’s military record, the Department of Defense would not have issued a second waiver for his deployment to Afghanistan. The campaign has made all of the Congressman’s military fitness reports available for review and no concerns were documented.
Commander Kirk was counseled about each of his violations after they occurred and signed a statement acknowledging the limitations on his ability to participate in campaign activities while on active duty. He was required to complete this acknowledgement before being allowed to begin active duty in December 2009.
In other words, Kirk was only able to obtain that waiver after he was “counseled” about his violations and signed a statement promising never to do it ever again.
More ominous for Kirk, though, is that unlike last week, when it was just some bloggers and the Sun-Times which picked up on the DoD memo story, this time both the AP and the Tribune have taken notice. From the AP…
The Pentagon said Republican Senate candidate Mark Kirk has been cautioned twice for improperly mingling politics with his military service, but Kirk’s campaign denied any improper conduct Tuesday.
The Defense Department said Monday night that Kirk, a commander in the Navy Reserve, was warned after two incidents of political activity while he was on active duty. Before being allowed to go on active duty again in Afghanistan, Kirk was required to sign a statement acknowledging he knew to avoid all political work.
The Pentagon [yesterday] offered details to support its assertion that Republican Senate candidate Mark Kirk twice violated military policy by participating in political activities while on active duty — once in 2008 and once in 2009.
* Kirk’s campaign tried to change the subject today with a press release demanding that Alexi Giannoulias release his tax returns…
After two months of waiting for Alexi Giannoulias to file his 2009 individual tax return, the Kirk for Senate campaign today renewed its call for Giannoulias to end his “Blagojevich-style” stonewall tactics and disclose his financial information for the last calendar year.
* And the Giannoulias campaign held a presser this morning to unveil Giannoulias’ energy policy…
In advance of President Barack Obama’s address to the nation after his latest visit to the Gulf Coast, U.S. Senate nominee Alexi Giannoulias and Director of the Illinois Chapter of the Sierra Club Jack Darin will participate in a conference call with reporters TODAY, June 15, at 9:30 AM CST. Giannoulias will discuss the importance of implementing safeguards to prevent spills like this from happening again, holding BP accountable, reducing our dependence on foreign oil and jumpstarting the clean energy economy of tomorrow.
* Related…
* Senate Race Rankings: Not So Fast, Democrats: 6. Illinois (D): Rep. Mark Kirk (R) has certainly been bruised from having embellished his military record. But will that sort of controversy have the same gravity and staying power in voters’ minds as Alexi Giannoulias’ problems with his family’s controversial bank? Dems need to find a catchy moniker for Kirk on par with Republicans’ “mob banker” for Giannoulias.
* Why in the World is Giannoulias Announcing Gay Benefits Now?: If Giannoulias has already established himself as the Straight Avenger in this race, why the need for a big show? Because he’s not just competing for the gay vote. He’s also competing for the anti-anti-gay vote: heterosexual, middle-of-the-road voters who have gay friends, gay neighbors or gay relatives. They may not share Giannoulias’s liberal economic views, but they appreciate politicians who treat gays as human beings.
* GOP Candidate: Politics In Treasurer’s Same Sex Benefit Order: The GOP state senator and candidate for Illinois treasurer says he supports the order, but wonders about the motivation behind it. Rutherford said he also wonders whether there are other initiatives from the Giannoulias office that are being launched or publicized to maximize their political benefit
* Desiree Rogers Dodges Reporters at Giannoulias Event: But when Rogers’ car pulled up to the event and she saw the NBC 5 camera, the driver kept rolling. Rogers apparently came and left thru the back door in the alley. One attendee told us Rogers didn’t know how to pronounce the name of Congressman Jan Schakowsky, one of the hosts for the event.
Ruben Delgado, who died Saturday, taught advanced placement Spanish at Morton East High School for the past three years and had been accepted into a master’s program in Spanish language at the Royal Academy of Languages in Salamanca, Spain, a spokeswoman for the senator said.
The move goes against a decades-long trend toward middle schools in which school districts have invested in the middle grades by adding enrichment courses, reducing class sizes and boosting planning time for teachers.
But budget issues are causing several Illinois districts to reconsider the middle years.
About $777.6 million in administrative costs could be saved by improving claims payment accuracy by 1 percentage point, the AMA estimates. Getting to 100% claims payment accuracy would save up to $15.5 billion, according to the AMA. Among other findings, the AMA reported that claim response time ranged from five to 13 days; and health plans improved in terms of disclosing policies and information to physicians through the Internet.
Lauren Sartain is one of the authors of the report. She says the pilot program helps principals do a better job of rating teachers because it clearly defines an unsatisfactory rating as “doing harm to students.”
Eight percent of teachers got at least one unsatisfactory rating — defined as doing academic harm to students — under the new system, piloted in 44 Chicago elementary schools. By comparison, just 0.4 percent of teachers in the same schools were deemed subpar when they were evaluated using the traditional checklist one year earlier, according to the report released Tuesday by the Consortium on Chicago School Research at the University of Chicago.
Goodwin’s “right thing” is a plan to open up the 450 acres of developable land at the DuPage National Technology Park to more than just technology-based firms.
To Schillerstrom, it’s the wrong thing. The county board chairman wants to remove the airport board from having any oversight of the tech park land and allow a tech park board to handle future land deals.
The county’s credit rating went from the A range to Aa2, the second highest rating available. That means its “obligations are judged to be of high quality and are subject to very low credit risk,” Moody’s says.
This new rating was not easily earned, and the county still has an operating deficit of $2 million, which it is trying to whittle down by early retirement options and other measures. But the rating does mean that Moody’s considers the county’s $10 million reserve fund to be enough to ensure financial obligations to bond holders are met, says Scott Christiansen, County Board chairman.
