* Illinois is one of the states that would find itself with an even bigger budget hole if the feds don’t act by the end of this year…
Having counted on Washington for money that may not be delivered, at least 30 states will have to close larger-than-anticipated shortfalls in the coming fiscal year unless Congress passes a six-month extension of increased federal spending on Medicaid.
Governors and state lawmakers, already facing some of the toughest budgets since the Great Depression, said the repercussions would extend far beyond health care, forcing them to make bone-deep cuts to education, social services and public safety.
Gov. Edward G. Rendell of Pennsylvania, for instance, penciled $850 million in federal Medicaid assistance into the revenue side of his state’s ledger, reducing its projected shortfall to $1.2 billion. The only way to compensate for the loss, he said in an interview, would be to lay off at least 20,000 government workers — including teachers and police officers — at a time when the state is starting to add jobs.
If fiscal stimulus is so great, then why hasn’t the Obama administration’s massive stimulus program helped improve the economy? Well, via Mark Thoma, the answer is that there hasn’t been any net fiscal stimulus, all the Obama administration’s efforts plus the automatic stabilizers have done is mitigate the contractionary impact of state and local policy
States and localities cut 22,000 jobs in the past month, wiping out half the month’s gain in private-sector jobs… In total, state and local governments have cut 231,000 jobs, including 100,000 local education jobs, since the summer of 2008.
There has been much talk of the size of the US federal stimulus, and much debate about whether or not it has been an effective counter-cyclical policy instrument.
But it’s important to remember that the proper measure for fiscal stimulus is not spending by the federal government; it is spending by all levels of government. And when you look at the contributions to US GDP growth (Table 1.1.2 at the BEA site), total government spending has been a drag on growth over the past two quarters. The increases at the federal level have not been enough to compensate for the spending cuts at the local and state levels.
I suppose that this could be interpreted as good news: despite a contractionary fiscal stance, the US economy is in recovery. But it raises the question of how much better it could be doing if it had an expansionary fiscal policy.
Yes, the deficit is a very important consideration, but history has shown (FDR during the Great Depression when he tried to cut the deficit after the economy had stopped spiraling downwards and Japan when it did the same thing) that cutting spending too soon - for instance, as in Japan, while business were starting to recover but were using profits to pay down debt - is a dangerous thing indeed. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, if the feds don’t step in to help out the states, we’re heading for some real trouble in the economy.
On Friday, Moody’s lowered Illinois’ bond rating down one notch to A1 in reaction to the failure of lawmakers to address the state’s long-term structural budget woes.
“We view the failure to enact significant new recurring fiscal measures as a troublesome indicator with respect to Illinois’ governance and management profile,” Moody’s said.
Although the rating service said Illinois’ outlook is stable because it can raise taxes and cut spending, it warned that recent budgeting failures don’t bode well for the future.
“The longer the solutions to the state’s challenges are deferred, the more difficult they will become to implement,” Moody’s said.
Bill Brady responds via press release [NOTE: What’s now posted is an updated release. The campaign has asked that the original statement, which was in draft form and contained an edit suggestion - “is this correct?” - be taken down. No biggie, so here you go with the new one]…
“The most recent Moody’s report is yet another independent voice proving the failed economic policies of Governor Quinn has driven our state into the ground.
The decision by Moody’s to further downgrade our credit now gives Illinois the dubious distinction of having the same rating as California.
While the Governor continues to blame others for his failures, Moody’s cited a ‘chronic failure of political will’ for this downgrade. Voters have had enough. We need a clean break in Illinois.”
Nielsen and Hankes [both men] said they visited LaFiesta Azteca on May 7 to have dinner. But after the couple kissed on the lips, they were approached by the owner and told to stop.
The couple said their rights were violated because they were not treated as a heterosexual couple would have been treated under the same circumstances.
“We sat on the same side of the booth. We kissed a few times on the lips, but it was not vulgar,” said Hankes, who lives in Lemont.
The couple claim they were reprimanded, and they decided to leave, Hankes said. They say the owner blocked their path until they paid for the appetizers and drinks they ordered.
“The manager puffed out his chest and said, ‘You’re going to pay,’” Hankes said. “Frankie threw a $20 bill on the table, and we stormed out.”
But Jaime Esparza, the owner of LaFiesta Azteca, said he was never hostile with the couple and he didn’t refuse to serve them. He said he would ask any couple to respect his restaurant and leave the kissing outside.
Sec. 5‑102. Civil Rights Violations: Public Accommodations. It is a civil rights violation for any person on the basis of unlawful discrimination to:
(A) Enjoyment of Facilities, Goods, and Services. Deny or refuse to another the full and equal enjoyment of the facilities, goods, and services of any public place of accommodation;
* The Question: While avoiding disgusting, over-the top responses like those at Illinois Review, tell us if you side with the two men or the restaurant owner. And don’t forget to explain your answer. Thanks.
A public viewing for State Rep. Eddie Washington, 56, who died of a heart attack Saturday, will take place in Waukegan Tuesday.
The viewing will be held at 1 p.m. at Shiloh Baptist Church at 800 S. Genesee St. The burial will take place in Washington’s hometown of East St. Louis, Ill.
* And this just blows my mind, but good for state Sen. Terry Link, who is also the Lake County Democratic Party chairman…
Link will convene a panel composed of himself and two others who will select someone to finish Washington’s term and fill his spot on the November ballot. Link said it is too early to think about who will replace Washington, but said he hopes to find a single person to both complete the term and run for election.
“I have already received several phone calls from people asking to be considered,” Link said today. “I have been coarse with them, explaining it is far too soon to be having these discussions.”
What kind of freaking moron would be contacting the county chairman before Rep. Washington’s body is even cold, let alone in the ground? I’d love to run that list here and subject those craven jerks to the public ridicule that they so richly deserve.
More than two years after her death, former Republican state Sen. Adeline Geo-Karis’ name and image are being used by the re-election campaign of her Democratic successor - and it isn’t sitting well with Lake County’s GOP leader.
A recent campaign mailer for state Sen. Michael Bond features a photograph of Bond, his wife and Geo-Karis taken before her death. Additionally, Bond’s float in Lake Villa’s Memorial Day parade bore a large picture of Bond and Geo-Karis with a message about the late politician.
Bond’s opponent in the Nov. 2 election for the 31st District seat is Republican Suzi Schmidt of Lake Villa, the longtime chairwoman of the Lake County Board. Schmidt declined to comment about Bond’s campaign, but Lake County Republican Party Chairman Bob Cook was disturbed by the use of Geo-Karis’ name and photos.
“I’m appalled that someone would resort to using someone who passed away for political gains,” Cook said. “I think it’s in poor taste.”
Bond called Cook’s comments “ridiculous” and said the complaints are purely political.
The Lake County GOP worked against Geo during her last primary race, which she lost. So, they really don’t have much credibility here. And even though endorsements from beyond the grave are not unheard of (Paul Simon’s post-mortem endorsement of Barack Obama in 2004 springs to mind), there is certainly a question of taste here. Thoughts?
* And sympathies to all of Ginnie Frederick’s family and many, many friends…
The first woman elected to the Lake Forest City Council and an Illinois state representative for 16 years, Virginia “Ginnie” Fiester Frederick of Lake Forest died May 30. She was 93.
Frederick left local government for state politics. Elected to the Illinois House of Representatives as a Republican in 1978, she served until 1994 when she chose to not run for re-election. […]
There will be a memorial service for Frederick at 1 p.m. on Friday, June 11 at Grace United Methodist Church, 244 E. Center Ave., Lake Bluff.
Memorial gifts may be made to the Lake Forest-Lake Bluff Historical Society, 361 E. Westminster, Lake Forest, IL 60045 or to The University of Iowa Foundation.
The GOP’s biggest asset in their race to oust IL Gov. Pat Quinn (D) isn’t the Dem or his GOP rival. It’s Quinn’s predecessor, ex-Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D).
Now, as Blagojevich’s corruption trial kicks off in Chicago, the RGA is running ads linking the 2 governors, even though Quinn supported Blagojevich’s impeachment last year.
“As governors, Quinn and Blagojevich have failed us,” a narrator intones. “Under Quinn and Blagojevich, Illinois is now $13 billion in the red.” […]
Add IL to a growing roster of states the RGA is already playing in. The group has run ads bashing Dem candidates in FL, CA, MA, NH, OH and CO so far, and with $25M in the bank to start the year, that list will grow.
Jason Plummer, the 27-year-old Republican candidate for lieutenant governor, has refused to release his tax returns for voters to see. Plummer’s family owns the R.P. Lumber chain headquartered in Edwardsville and other businesses and partnerships. Plummer calls the controversy over his returns a distraction from more serious issues. “I don’t think a person’s economic status, their financial status, should be a standard for whether or not they run for office,” he said.
He can think whatever he wishes, but the distraction will dog him throughout the campaign. Bill Brady, the GOP candidate for governor, initially refused to release his returns, then relented and gave reporters a limited window to peruse six years of filings. They revealed that Brady paid no federal income taxes the last two years because of business losses.
So Plummer wants voters to trust him — on his terms.
Plummer said he hasn’t changed his mind. He repeatedly talked as if it is just Quinn who wants to see his tax returns.
“I’d really like to hear Pat Quinn’s explanation of how this tax return is some sort of benchmark of ethics and transparency,” Plummer said. “I mean, this is coming from the guy that campaigned, criss-crossing the state on behalf of Rod Blagojevich. I don’t feel like getting lectured by an enabler of Rod Blagojevich on ethics. I don’t think that’s an issue that he wants to delve into very deeply, especially with everything that’s coming out recently on the McCormick Place issue.” […]
I asked if he paid any taxes last year, and he thought for a bit.
“If I start answering all the questions, it’s probably not going to stop, is it?” he said.
No, I told him. It never stops.
Bernie’s right. It’ll never stop. Plummer will have to address that question every time he talks to at least a halfway decent reporter for the rest of the campaign.
* And Sen. Brady has taken the unusual step of rejecting his per diem for any days when he missed a vote…
Republican nominee for governor Bill Brady routinely missed votes throughout the General Assembly’s spring session, and the Bloomington senator now says he won’t accept any state mileage, hotel or meal money for those days.
Brady campaign spokeswoman Patty Schuh said it was a “personal decision” Brady had been weighing for some time. Brady’s missed votes recently came under scrutiny after a Daily Herald story revealed that he had missed more than 200 votes in the hectic final weeks of the legislative session.
In a letter to Senate staff obtained by the Daily Herald via the Freedom of Information Act, Brady says he doesn’t want any reimbursement for “any 2010 Legislative Session Days on which I missed any vote on the Senate floor.”
That’s the right thing to do.
*** UPDATE *** From Quinn campaign spokesperson Mica Matsoff…
“Over the past few weeks, Bill Brady’s Senate voting record has come under fire. And for good reason.
According to the Daily Herald (5/20), Senator Brady wasn’t present for more than 200 votes over just a two-week span while campaigning for governor. And today, an updated Daily Herald story revealed he missed votes on 25 days of the Senate’s 43 days of session. That gives Brady a 42% full attendance record, a failing grade.
Among hundreds of others, Senator Brady missed votes on treatment for breast and cervical cancer, protections for abused and neglected children, and creating penalties for governmental ethics violations.
And what is Bill Brady’s solution to neglecting his constituents and his duties as a senator? He’s now offered not to collect his per diem. It’s not just about your expense account, Senator Brady; it’s about doing your job.
If Bill Brady can’t be trusted to show up for only 43 days of votes, how can we trust him to do the 365-day-a-year job of governor?”
* Related…
* Goodbye, jobs: That might be changing. The governor is looking for a solution. An aide to Attorney General Lisa Madigan called us Friday to say she’s on the case, too. We hope they pull out all the stops. It will be a bad day for Illinois if not-in-my-backyard syndrome sends thousands of jobs somewhere else.
If you support reductions in state spending, send Gov. Pat Quinn a red pen. He’s going to need it. Members of the Illinois House and Senate adjourned last month, knowingly sending Quinn an out-of-balance state budget that takes effect July 1. They also approved an Emergency Budget Act that will give Quinn new authority during the next six months to manage spending. If an unmandated program doesn’t deserve an appropriation, he can decide not to fund it.
* Last week, I told subscribers that they needed to go out and buy of copy of Jim Ridings’ book “Len Small: Governors and Gangsters” as part of their preparation for watching the Rod Blagojevich trial. Gov. Small, from Kankakee, openly allied himself with Al Capone and pardoned hundreds of Capone’s soldiers. Ridings’ book is the first complete biography of Gov. Small, and you really should go buy it. Chuck Goudie’s column today is about the Ridings book and Rod Blagojevich…
When it became clear that Gov. Small wasn’t going to succeed in having the charges dismissed - after all, Illinois was still in the USA - his lawyers had to use another well-honed Illinois legal tactic.
They employed a few Chicago hoodlums to pay off the jury.
The governor’s team was so confident that they would win the case; they didn’t even bother putting on a defense. No witnesses, no documents, nothing.
After a six-week trial - most of the time used up by the government’s presentation - the bought-and-paid-for jury was ready to go home. Some jurors started packing up their bags and belongings even before closing arguments were finished.
Their “deliberations” lasted an hour and a half and they found Gov. Small, not surprisingly, innocent of all charges.
Weeks later, even when a trio of Chicago gangsters was arrested for fixing the jury, Gov. Small attributed it to the cynicism and persecution against him by Chicago newspapers. Sound familiar?
Former Gov. Rod Blagojevich said he wanted to finish up the jury selection process today and he may get his wish. Only three potential jurors were dismissed for cause this morning, leaving the court with 35 candidates for its final pool.
Zagel has said he wants a jury pool of around 40 before entering the peremptory strike phase of the process. Thirty-one more potential jurors are preparing to be sworn in and then questioned by the judge.
But former federal prosecutor Rodger Heaton said Zagel has the discretion to end the process once he feels he can reach 40. “He does not have to interview everyone in there, he can stop anytime,” he said.
Former Gov. Blagojevich asked for a short delay if the opening arguments do start on Tuesday afternoon, so he can attend a grade school graduation for one of his daughters.
Judge Zagel denied that request.
But Blagojevich says his attorneys made a mistake…
Blagojevich told WLS-AM hosts Don Wade and Roma that he was not asking for the judge to cancel a half-day of court proceedings, but maybe just end things an hour early.
Thomas Anthony Durkin won a rare acquittal for a lobbyist accused of bribing a state official in 2008, but Mr. Durkin noted that this defeat for prosecutors came in a bench trial. “I don’t think it’s possible to get a fair trial with a jury in a public corruption case in Chicago,” he said.
Among those cut this morning are a man with personal knowledge of the Teachers Retirement System who had also contributed to Children’s Memorial Hospital. Blagojevich is accused of corruption involving both of those organizations.
The man said on his questionnaire that he was biased toward a guilty verdict. Though the government argued that he was “rehabilitated” during questioning, the judge said, “I didn’t believe him.”
Also out is a retired woman from Poland who worked as a housekeeper for a time. The defense argued to keep her in the pool, but the judge worried the woman did not understand his questioning and cut her. Visibly upset, Patti puffed up her cheeks and shook her head at the judge’s decision.
The courtroom is now waiting for the next group of potential jurors. Patti appears deeply invested in the jury selection process. She is standing over her husband at the defense table, making marks on the yellow notebook where he has been tracking the jurors.
During an interview on WLS Radio’s “The Don and Roma Morning Show” on Monday, Blagojevich jokingly said he should get comfortable in court because he knows he’ll be there for awhile.
Meanwhile, in the first two days of jury selection, a number of reporters and bloggers were at work, transmitting all manner of trial esoterica from the courtroom. The issue of live-blogging from within a federal courtroom is an emerging debate, but Zagel, who decided against allowing a closed-circuit television feed to the overflow room, is permitting Blackberrys – so long as they aren’t visible to jurors. An order he sent to the media before the trial gave the go ahead to “small PDAs with QWERTY keyboards.”
Mike Dobbins, the clerk of the court, mentioned that one of the concerns the judge had was how jurors might be impacted during the trial if, for example, a witness says something on the stand and immediately a dozen reporters begin furiously tapping away at their smart phones. But ultimately, Dobbins thought, there was no real way to police people’s use of their phones.
Live-blogging (and live-tweeting) has figured prominently in the coverage of the Perry v. Schwarzenegger trial in California, where a lesbian woman is challenging the constitutionality of the state’s Proposition 8 measure that bans same-sex marriage. So far, federal judges in at least eight states and Washington, D.C., have allowed live-blogging to take place from their courtroom. But a number of others have ruled that preventing it does not violate the spirit of the First Amendment, and instead stands to hazard the developments of a trial.
It’s hard to believe that Rod Blagojevich was the venal criminal the U.S. Attorney’s office is making him out to be, just because he was such an incompetent governor. […]
The General Assembly wasn’t wrong to impeach Blagojevich. He was a terrible officeholder. But that was a political trial. Blagojevich may win in court for the same reason he lost in the legislature: he was a guy who could never get the job done.
You don’t have to conclude a corrupt deal to be convicted of one. Sheesh.
Day 3 of jury selection began with the prosecutors and defense counsel resuming the process of removing certain members of Friday’s juror pool for cause.
By the end of the morning challenges, the potential jury pool was numbering in the low 30s. Although the Court “technically” needs a pool of 40 potential jurors to have enough people to select a jury of 12 jurors and 6 alternates, Judge Zagel has stated that he will seek more than that.
The reason why the Court “technically” needs a pool of 40 potential jurors has to do with the number of peremptory challenges both sides will be allowed. In this case, given the number of jurors and alternates to be selected, the Government will be allowed 9 peremptory challenges and the defense will have 13 pursuant to the Federal Rules of Criminal Procedure.
The making of peremptory challenges is one of the last procedural steps before a jury is selected.
And it’s an important one.
That’s because peremptory challenges provide both sides with one final chance to shape the jury they want. And unlike cause challenges, neither side needs to state a reason when seeking to dismiss a juror pursuant to a peremptory challenge.
However, there are limits to peremptory challenges.
Neither side may use a peremptory challenge to remove a juror on the basis of race or sex. Using a peremptory challenge in such a manner may be challenged under the Equal Protection Clause through what is called a Batson challenge. Both the prosecutors and the defense have the right to make a Batson challenge.
Questioning of potential jurors will likely continue through the early afternoon.
*** UPDATE 2 *** The BGA’s Andy Shaw did a midday roundup. Listen here.
*** UPDATE 3 *** From Natasha Korecki’s Twitter page…
attorney Sam Adam Jr. asks for 2.5 hours for opening statements. Judge says..um…NO. he’ll get 1:45
Judge James Zagel adjourned today’s proceedings with a jury pool of 50 and asked the lawyers for both sides to submit their peremptory challenges in writing to the Court tomorrow morning.
Opening statements are expected to begin tomorrow morning after the jurors are sworn in. The government will speak first.
On the eve of opening statements, here’s a primer on openings and some thoughts on what we can anticipate:
An opening is intended to inform the jurors about the nature of the case to help them better understand the evidence. To that end, openings should focus on the facts, what are the issues in the case and what the evidence will show. That is why lawyers always speak in terms of “the evidence will show that” or “you will hear from Mr. X, who will testify that ….”
Openings should not be argumentative — that is why they are called “opening statements” not “opening arguments.” While this rule is easy to state, it is often hard to explain. The bottom line — if you have a witness or evidence to prove the facts you’re stating, it’s probably proper.
Among other things, openings should not (i) contain any personal opinions — phrases like “I believe,” or “I think,” or “I know” are generally improper; (ii) misstate or mischaracterize the evidence; (iii) refer to any inadmissible evidence; or (iv) instruct the jury on what the law is (that’s for the judge).
Opening statements have already been an issue in this case.
In its Motion to Continue the Trial Date, the Defense argued that it would be an “impossible task to prepare an opening statement” without knowing whether Rod will have to defend himself on the Honest Services counts. Judge Zagel, however, disagreed and semi-admonished the Defense for suggesting that they could discuss what the law is in their opening : “The truth is, in criminal trials opening statements are devoted to what the evidence will show about what happened. The jury’s sole concern throughout the trial, until they reach the end of the evidence and start to hear closing arguments, is what the facts are. Not the law, the facts. There will not be an opening statement on the law.” (Transcript, March 17, 2010 Hearing).
And Judge Zagel was not finished.
In a recent order, Judge Zagel said: “[O]pening statements [are] not a place for legal arguments….The office of opening statements is to predict what will be shown when the evidence is complete, all to assist the jury to put testimony and evidence in context as they hear it.” (Order, May 11, 2010).
Given these recent orders and Judge Zagel’s reputation for running a tight ship, we expect him to give little leeway to the attorneys when making their opening statements. Judge Zagel stated again today that the openings should not contain argument.
Some other thoughts:
We expect the Government’s theme will be the “use of political office for personal gain” and the “violation of public trust.” We also expect the Government to walk the jurors through the various schemes and introduce the key players. The Government’s opening — which we expect to be methodical and heavy on factual details — should largely track the Santiago proffer. Carrie Hamilton gave the opening in Rezko and will likely give it here. At the end of the day today, she told the Court that the Government’s opening should be about an hour.
Sam Adam Jr. is expected to give the opening for Rod. Given his reputation for being a highly impassioned speaker, it should be an interesting contrast of styles. That said, we do not think that Judge Zagel will not let Sam Adam Jr. go too far — this is federal court, not 26th and California. In fact, Judge Zagel told Mr. Adam at the end of today’s proceedings that he would be given 1 hour and 45 minutes to give his opening, far shorter than the 2 1/2 hours he sought.
In addition to discussing Rod’s innocence (and the fact that the evidence will bear this out), we expect the defense to argue that Rod did nothing illegal — that this was just political horse trading. We also expect the defense to refer to plea agreements cut with the cooperating witnesses and the possibility of reduced sentences for these witnesses.
* Patti Blagojevich Cries at Judge’s Denial of Postponement: Patti Blagojevich burst into tears on Friday after federal Judge James Zagel refused to postpone her husband’s corruption trial next week so the former Illinois governor could attend their daughter’s grammar school graduation.
* Mark Kirk constantly uses his position as a Navy intelligence officer to buttress his foreign policy insights. But the Sun-Times checked into two of his stories and found them lacking…
But some of the stories Kirk tells on the stump seem a bit too good to be true. When he last ran for re-election to his congressional seat, he got into trouble for saying China was drilling for oil off the coast of Cuba, which was not true, he acknowledged Thursday in a meeting with the Sun-Times editorial board.
Speaking to the City Club of Chicago last year just after President Obama authorized the shooting of Somali pirates who kidnapped American Capt. Richard Phillips, Kirk got a whole lot wrong talking about pirates attacking ships off Africa.
“We began to see some backbone, not from the U.S. but from France,” Kirk said. “France was always good for a quick $2 million ransom until the election of President Sarkozy. When his first ship was seized, he authorized the standard ransom payment — with a transmitter in the box. As that went into the pirate compound, he then authorized French Special Forces to roll in. And they killed everybody. . . . It kind of shocked us in the Pentagon. But it sent a clear message and I don’t think the French have had many problems since.”
Here’s the problem: Much of the answer was fiction. It wasn’t the first ship attacked after Sarkozy took office; and the French Special Forces didn’t kill everybody. In fact they didn’t kill anybody, Sarkozy has said.
* The Tribune editorial board discloses something the paper’s reporters did not, then goes on to whack Kirk but good…
[Kirk] spoke for an hour to the Tribune editorial board — and called back later to volunteer that during the interview he had displayed too much defensiveness, and too little candor. Before our eyes, he had tried to writhe away from questions about whether he repeatedly had embellished his service record. Not until his subsequent phone call did he say in plain English that the simple answer to those questions is Yes.
Why had he stretched the already admirable truth? We don’t know the motive. Taken together, though, Kirk’s misstatements demonstrate how deeply he had succumbed to the I-must-sell-myself temptations of politics, elevating the importance of what “I” accomplished in the military. Most veterans instead speak of what “we” won or lost. There is no Army — or in Kirk’s case, Navy — of One.
Kirk’s reluctant acknowledgement of his errors has been maddening but also saddening. For a decade this page has respected naval intelligence officer Kirk and Congressman Kirk. Thus the dilemma: What are we — what are all the voters of Illinois — now to make of candidate Kirk? He has weakened one of the most compelling arguments for electing him to the Senate. […]
For us, the disclosures of Mark Kirk’s career inflation are not excusable. For military families in particular, this is serious. Neither, though, are his offenses a reason to discount his service or to declare him unfit for the Senate. Kirk made arrogant errors and now he has apologized. He may not go one day between now and Nov. 2 without having to offer his personal regrets to the people of Illinois.
But the [Navy fitness] reports also make clear what Kirk isn’t. He isn’t a battle-tested combat veteran as he seems determined to portray himself. […]
Judging from what his superiors say about him, Kirk has had a very honorable, impressive military career. It’s a shame he didn’t realize that was enough to take him where he wanted.
Political reporters and pundits have a bad habit of saying: “If present trends continue.” The truth is, in politics, “present trends” almost always change.
Last week, Illinoisans were treated to a classic example of how that overused phrase can so often be horribly wrong.
Let’s take a look back, shall we?
For years, the Republican powers that be in this state have dreamt of finding a “perfect” statewide candidate.
Social liberal, fiscal moderate without a hint of scandal. That’s the key to winning statewide in Illinois. Finding that person hasn’t been so easy, however.
Then GOP Congressman Mark Kirk decided to move up the political ladder to U.S. Senate. Kirk is pro-choice, pro gay rights, tough on guns, but a fiscal hawk in the tradition of Jim Edgar.
Best of all, Kirk serves in the Navy Reserves. Reporters, as a class, love military men, and Kirk’s stories about his daring feats of bravery have made the tough-nosed Chicago media drool all over him.
A decorated Naval intelligence officer works great with voters as well. Kirk could separate himself from average politicians by pointing to his honorable service. Despite some bumps along the way, the military has long been one of the most respected institutions in this patriotic nation.
A recent USA Today poll found that by a margin of 2 to 1, Americans would “rather vote for a candidate who has never served in Congress over one with experience.” And since “Republican congressman” polls even lower than “congressman,” Congressman Kirk would be at a serious disadvantage without that Naval service.
Until last week, Kirk looked to many like a slam-dunk winner - or as much of one as a Republican could be in this state. The trend against the Democrats was certainly working in his favor. And Kirk’s Democratic opponent Alexi Giannoulias had been pummeled left and right over stories about how his now-defunct family bank had made loans to mobsters and had other nefarious ties.
Giannoulias endured one of the worst three months of any candidate I’ve ever seen starting shortly after he won the February Democratic primary. He was hammered relentlessly in the media, and the pack was full-on engaged the day his family’s bank was seized by federal regulators.
Unsourced speculation abounded that the youthful state treasurer would be pushed out of the U.S. Senate contest by the White House. Nobody had any real basis for those claims except a strong belief that the horrific trend dictated that Giannoulias would be gone any day.
But then something happened which turned all of that smug punditry on its head.
It turns out that Congressman Kirk is a serial exaggerator.
The Washington Post reported over Memorial Day weekend that Kirk had falsely claimed for years that he had won “the Navy’s Intelligence Officer of the Year” award when his unit actually won an award from a private group, but recommended by Navy brass.
Over the next few days, Kirk was forced to admit a whole host of untruths. He hadn’t served in 2003’s Operation Iraqi Freedom. He wasn’t a veteran of 1990-91’s Operation Desert Storm. Kirk had to backtrack from bravado comments he made about being shot at by the Iraqis. He hadn’t “served in Iraq,” as his recent TV ad claimed. He also didn’t “command” the Pentagon’s “War Room.”
Kirk didn’t pull it off well, either. “I simply misremembered incorrectly,” was his excuse to the Chicago Sun-Times, whatever that means. “You should speak with utter precision,” he admitted to the Chicago Tribune, even though most of these false claims had little to do with “precision” and much to do with overstating his service record.
So, will this years-long stream of prevarications ruin Kirk? Well, he has certainly damaged his credibility, particularly with his many friends in the media. The “current trend” would say he’s in bad shape indeed.
Still, this is a long campaign. There will no doubt be much more mud slung back and forth before it’s over.
If I had to guess, I’d say Kirk’s bizarre overstatements will most likely knock him off his high horse and force him to actually engage with Giannoulias, rather than be content to constantly deride the treasurer as unfit for office. But he’s showing no sign of that yet.
Just remember that this race isn’t over for either candidate. Don’t let anybody tell you it is. Politics is always full of surprising twists and turns and I’m sure there are lots more ahead of us.
What we’ve seen here is an equalization of sorts. Both candidates are now damaged goods. But the trend on election day is the only one that matters.
