* There’s something happening here, according to my latest syndicated newspaper column. What it is ain’t exacly clear…
The race for governor appears to be seriously tightening. The U.S. Senate race has been close all along. Attorney General Lisa Madigan and Secretary of State Jesse White, both Democrats, surely are heading for big wins next month.
But Republicans are doing quite well in congressional and state legislative races pretty much all over Illinois, except in the “bluest” of the blue regions in and near Chicago. Down-ballot Democratic incumbents are running scared all over the place.
And if you want to see how truly weird this election year is, then head on over to House Speaker Michael Madigan’s Southwest Side district. Madigan has sent five campaign mailers to his constituents over the past several days.
The last time Madigan spent even a few dollars on his own election was six years ago, when he beat his hapless Republican opponent with almost 80 percent of the vote. Two years ago, without spending a dime, he won by even more.
Madigan has told his House Democratic members, including many of his “safe” members, that they’d better not take anything for granted this year. He’s apparently taking his own advice.
Madigan has been whacked several times recently by the Chicago Tribune, including a high-profile column mocking him for hand-picking a no-show Republican opponent. The Tribune has connected him to the University of Illinois admissions scandal. The paper published a story about how he’s done various favors in the property business, and it just published a convoluted and not so solid piece about the FBI looking into how a town in Madigan’s district picked an attorney based on his recommendation.
But to give you an idea of how truly strange Madigan’s reaction is, the longtime House speaker’s personal direct-mail program is pretty much on par with what’s being done for Madigan’s most politically vulnerable Democratic incumbents. As of last week, five pieces in the mailboxes with more than three weeks to go before Election Day represents a very significant effort.
“It’s a lot of (expletive deleted) money,” deadpanned one person who is heavily involved with legislative mail programs.
Madigan indeed is concerned about the “slop from the Tribune,” according to his spokesman. So far, however, none of his mailers has addressed the accusations leveled by the city newspaper.
Instead, one has talked about saving American jobs, another has played up his role in impeaching former Gov. Rod Blagojevich, one was about how he’d helped senior citizens, one targeted the evil bankers and another was about his work against sex offenders.
The speaker has been putting “the fear” into traditional Democratic campaign contributors lately about how he might not be able to hold the House. But a longtime friend of Madigan’s insisted last week that the longest-serving House speaker in the state’s history is just clanging the alarm bells as hard as he can in order to raise more money.
Whatever he’s doing, he doesn’t appear to be taking any chances anywhere, including in his own back yard.
Madigan’s 13th Ward organization also is pumping out large numbers of absentee voter applications. A new law is in effect this year that doesn’t require any reasons for voting absentee.
In the past, some ward and township organizations have found themselves in hot water over stretching the reasoning for absentee applications. Before, you were supposed to be leaving town, or in the hospital or something. Now, voters don’t need to say why they want to vote absentee, so Machine wards like Madigan’s have gone back to the old ways.
The statewide Democratic campaigns, of course, are thrilled with this because they need to jack up the city’s vote as much as possible to override what looks like a looming Downstate bloodbath.
The Republicans raised about $3,000 at a recent downtown “fundraiser” for Madigan’s ghost opponent, and a GOP operative joked last week that since Madigan actually was taking his race seriously, they might spend that cash on yard signs. Reminded that he’d be hard-pressed to find any locations for those signs, he said they may be able to find some willing homeowners in Burr Ridge, on the far western end of Madigan’s district. Good luck with that.
- Quinn T. Sential - Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 4:36 am:
I think that if Madigan maintains his majority; AND Berrios wins the Assessor’s race, that the Tribune’s property tax assessments will be shown no mercy, for “whatsoever a man soweth, that shall he also reap.”
- OswegoDem - Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 4:42 am:
Madigan clearly remembers what happened in 1994. He has always been cautious and thorough when running his own campaigns. It is no surprise that he is running as if he has a real opponent and why not—–he has the money and staff to run a mail campaign without breaking a sweat.
- wordslinger - Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 6:58 am:
He’s cautious, thorough and taking his own advice. He’s got the money. There are changes in coming in Chicago. I suspect he wants to show whomever he’s still a force in his backyard.
- CircularFiringSquad - Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 7:05 am:
The effort shows the striking difference between smart politics and the high school pranks and wasted energy of Gags Brady and the IL GOP
Fire,Aim,Ready!
- Logical Thinker - Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 7:47 am:
Spending money on himself so he doesn’t have to spend it on other candidates thereby giving him an alibi.
- a.l.byrd - Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 8:06 am:
The five mailers together create a Mad Magazine style fold-in picture of Madigan with his middle finger up to voters. The caption reads: Ay, Illinois! CAAAMMAAAAAAAN!
- bored now - Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 8:09 am:
5 mailers? illinois senate dems are working on their 10th mailer for their vulnerable members. if madigan does lose those downstate seats, he should head over to cullerton’s office for a few pointers…
- Chicago Dem - Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 8:52 am:
The fact Madigan is concerned about his standing in his own back yard against a phony opponent he probably put up himself is testimony to the public mood. Madigan increasingly personifies the insider politics that voters are revolting against. He will be a target of journalists and investigators for years to come.
- Cool Hand Luke - Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 9:01 am:
Mike Madigan has seem stranger things happen in election years when voters are riled up and upset. The current “Throw the bums out” mood has Madigan wisely deciding to spend a little “insurance money” just in case those leaking tea bags drip and touch his home turf.
- Niles Township - Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 9:14 am:
If Madigan were to lose, I would think we would be in a messianic period.
- The Truth - Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 9:21 am:
Sam Zell;s gunning for Madigan. He better be ready for return fire when he needs the state to save his worthless Tribune that is being investigated by the FBI themselves.
- AliceChains - Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 9:30 am:
I could have sworn Madigan did the same thing in ‘94 to avoid accusations that he didn’t do enough for Netsch. I believe the Fighting 13th was right at the top of turnout and votes for Netsch, too. I think if you look back you’ll see he has done mail programs for his district before. I don’t think this portends anything other than that MJM isn’t ignoring his home and will probably deliver more votes for the statewides in the 13th than those who complain about his leadership.
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 9:46 am:
Niles Township: The new millenium already came. Madigan’s still here.
- 42nd Ward - Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 10:00 am:
His Republican opponent is a Democrat put up by Madigan, who is not mounting any campaign. Essentially he is running against “anyone but Madigan.”
- the Other Anonymous - Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 10:03 am:
Perhaps I’m over-analyzing, but couldn’t this be a subtle response to the Trib’s criticism of Madigan running against a shill? By running (and presumably winning) a real campaign, it’s harder to make the argument that the 22nd District doesn’t want Madigan to represent them.
However, it’s more likely that this is a message to tier three incumbents: raise some money yourselves and spend it. This is not the year to sit on your cash. Even supposedly safe incumbent Lisa Madigan is spending campaign money on teevee ads.
- eastsider - Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 10:06 am:
I’ve heard that internal polling is indicating that even the most powerful Democrat incumbents have lost significant ground amongst independents. Case in point here in the Metro East, where powerful (and untouchable) incumbent Congressman Jerry Costello is spending a fortune on a barrage of two page color fold-out mailers. His opponent is a complete joke, who doesn’t even live in the congressional district and she has no money, no organization and no real support. Yet I’ve received 3 mailers from Jerry in the past 10 days.
Guys like Costello and Madigan aren’t in danger of losing, but (in my opinion), they’re making sure their support is insulated going forward, and trying to GOTV as well.
- just sayin' - Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 10:25 am:
“Madigan’s guy” Patrick Ryan should turn the game on its head. Come out and say he’s not having anything to do with the likes of Pat Brady, Tom Cross and Skip Saviano (the 3 Republicans highlighted in one story about the “fundraiser”), because he’ll have nothing to do with dirty politicians like that. Soak up some tea party votes. It’s all good.
- Bill - Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 10:32 am:
Madigan will never lose his district. If he did unemployment in the district would approach 75%. The only way to get rid of him is to take away his majority. He’d probably pull a Pouting Pate and resign if he couldn’t be Speaker.
- VoterUSA - Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 10:33 am:
Saw this on huff this morning…. way to go Kirk.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/10/12/mark-kirk-accused-of-raci_n_759253.html
- ivoted4judy - Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 10:35 am:
Methodically counting his way to 60+, nothing surprised me that comes out of the So. Pulaski address!!!
- 47th Ward - Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 10:53 am:
So when do you think Madigan is going to go negative on Ryan? The poor kid. No good deed goes unpunished.
- Phineas J. Whoopee - Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 11:37 am:
Obviously, he is trying to pump up his numbers to offset anticipated criticism brought on by a Republican surge.
He’d be better off trying to help the statewide ticket but…well, I got nothin”.
- dupage dan - Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 11:39 am:
I love the image of the Pouting Pate! Let’s hope we all get to see that come the New Year.
- Quiet Sage - Tuesday, Oct 12, 10 @ 2:45 pm:
This election is like a collapsing quantum field–it’s gonna break one way or the other, and there ain’t no in between. One possibility is a Republican landslide that will see the election of Brady, Kirk and a House Republican majority, ending the long reign of the Speaker. The second possibility is only slight gains for the Republicans, with Quinn and Giannoulias reelected, a minor reduction in the House Democratic majority, and only one Republican victory in the Constitutional offices–Topinka’s. Under this second possibility, the Republicans will be in dire straits as a continued major party, having blown an electoral season where everything was going against the incumbents. In the same way that a collapsing quantum field is indeterminable in advance, we won’t know which option will manifest itself until the field actually collapses on election night.