“While Mayor Daley surprised me today with his decision to not run for reelection, I have never been surprised by his leadership, dedication and tireless work on behalf of the city and the people of Chicago,” said Emanuel
A senior Obama Administration official said Emanuel is likely to run for the post. “I’d be shocked if he doesn’t run,” the official said.
I’m not sure who feeds Chris Cillizza, so I can’t tell you how high up that really goes. One thing’s for sure, Emanuel could raise millions of dollars right out of the gate. But he’ll have some big trouble with some major elements within organized labor.
A source close to Emanuel tells CNN that it’s complicated. He takes his job seriously and feels a responsibility to see out his duties serving the President during difficult times. That said he’s made no secret of the fact that he’s always wanted to be Mayor of Chicago, a city he served in the House of Representatives.
The source close to Emanuel says he will probably look at the open seat as an option but has some time to make the decision.
* A kabillion names are floating around right now. Lisa Madigan, Tom Dart, Terry Peterson, Danny Davis, Mike Quigley, Jim Houlihan, Miguel Del Valle, James Meeks, John Fritchey and all the other usual suspects are being discussed.
One of the least mentioned - but whose name was floated by somebody this afternoon who could back her to the hilt - is Valerie Jarrett. Interesting.
Continue guessing in comments if you feel like it.
But here’s a question to ponder: As of right now, for what one thing will Daley be remembered most?
The Progressive Change Campaign Committee, which sought to drag the White House toward a public option during the health care fight, blamed Rahm Emanuel then for the failure, and co-founder Adam Green is out with a scorching statement on his possible mayoral campaign:
“Rahm is unfit to represent Democrats in office. He’s a cancer on the Democratic Party. Democrats’ current 2010 situation is due to a weak Rahm Emanuel mentality that says water down real reform at the urging of Republicans and corporations, thus making Democratic reform less popular with voters than the real deal would have been. If Democrats had passed the overwhelmingly-popular public option and broken up the big banks when they had the chance, they’d be cruising for a landslide victory right now.”
* 3:59 pm - Ald. Walter Burnett says the city council’s Black Caucus will meet tomorrow to discuss the mayoral vacancy.
* From SEIU President Tom Balanoff…
Mayor Richard M. Daley has provided Chicago with a lifetime of public service. The Service Employees International Union’s Illinois State Council wants to thank him for his work. This economic recession has made clear that Chicago needs a strong advocate for working families. SEIU represents 100,000 members in Chicago–a strong voice for workers and working families.
Davis said Emanuel wouldn’t be able to waltz away with the mayorship, describing that as a “Beltway notion.”
“All politics is local,” he said. “In Chicago, if you are out of sight, then you are pretty much out of mind,” Davis said, noting that Members of Congress go home every weekend. “When the bell rings, all of the Chicago representatives are on the airplane coming home, because they know they need to be in direct contact with their constituents, or somebody else is going to be on the plane.”
If Emanuel runs, “he’ll need to come and put his feet on the ground like any other candidate” and see if he can put together a coalition to win, Davis said.
“There’s nobody who’s got a corner on this,” he said. “I don’t think there’s a frontrunner.”
* 4:55 pm -Attorney General Lisa Madigan…
“I am focused on winning my race for attorney general so that I can continue to fight for the people of Illinois. I would like to thank Mayor Daley and Maggie Daley for their service and dedication to the people of Chicago.”
Fritchey said in an interview today that his recent talk of running for mayor was “never predicated” on having another candidate in the race. “I’ve stated that the public is interested in having choices. It’s clear now they’ll have a choice,” he said.
Would he be among those choices? Fritchey told Progress Illinois, “It would be an honor and privilege to serve as mayor of this city.” A decision will come “sooner rather than later.”
A public official has to know when it’s time to move on, Daley said during a press conference. “For me that time is now.”
Daley said he’s thought about the decision for weeks.
“I’ve done my all,” Daley said. “I’ve done my best. Now, I’m ready with my family to begin the new phase of our lives.”
“In the end, this was a personal decision, no more, no less,” Daley said, declining to answer questions. “I’ve been thinking about this for the last several months . . . . It just feels right.”
Katy bar the door.
* My first thought is I never figured he’d go out while he’s held in such low regard. His lousy poll numbers, the failed Olympics bid, the parking meter fiasco, etc., etc., etc. may have individually felled a mere political mortal, but I figured he wanted to restore his reputation before departing. Maybe he figured he couldn’t. More likely it’s a cumulative thing. He broke his father’s record. His wife is ill. It’s time to give somebody else a chance.
* My second thought is just a quick wonder whom the Daley/Bridgeport remnants will back now. They’ve had a horse in every race going back a century or so.
* 2:16 pm - State Sen. James Meeks has been mentioned for weeks as a possible Daley challenger. I just talked to him and here’s his on the record statement…
“The mayor has served the city for 20-plus years, and now it’s time for him to enjoy the rest of his life. The new mayor who will take over has nowhere to go but up. Public schools are in need of overhaul. City colleges are in need of overhaul. The city’s finances are in need of overhaul. The city’s rapport with police officers is at an all-time low. For the new mayor, the sky’s the limit.”
* I’m hearing two reactions so far. One is serious worry about the city’s future, the other is relief that this long, never-ending rule is finally over.
“He’s a great guy and a great mayor,” Quinn said, adding praise for Maggie Daley’s involvement in After School Matters. “Rich Daley and Maggie Daley are the heart of Chicago and they’re special people. I think like everybody else I’m shocked to hear this but I wish both Mayor Daley and Maggie Daley nothing but the best. They love Chicago.”
“They are two special people, they care about other people. They’ve got servants’ hearts, each of them have served us over and over again in many different ways. So we have a permanent debt of gratitude to Mayor Richard M. Daley and his dad, Richard J. Daley, we have a permanent debt of gratitude to Maggie Daley and the whole Daley family. They understand that being on Earth is not here to just serve yourself but to really serve others, and they have done that over and over again.”
“Mayor is an office he’s always been interested in,” said Steve Patterson, Dart’s spokesman. “He’s been upfront about that. He does have a re-election campaign for sheriff I November that he’s focused on. . . . He always said he would make a move only if he could have a greater impact than sheriff, and mayor certainly fits that.”
* 2:38 pm - Forrest Claypool is staying mum. I asked his campaign for a react and here’s what I got…
Bill Daley said the decision, finalized over the Labor Day weekend, stemmed from a variety of factors: economic woes besetting the city, his wife Maggie Daley’s long battle with cancer, the looming — and growing — chorus of political critics.
“It would have been more difficult than past races,” Bill Daley said, referring not only to the local situation but a national climate that has endangered incumbent officials from around America. “But he would have won.”
* Emanuel is probably the only person who could really limit the field - white and black. The Obama White House owns enough problems without owning Chicago politics as well, however. It’ll be a trickier move in DC than it will in the city, but that would still be fraught with danger. What if he loses?
* As far as I can tell, Rahm Emanuel’s next publicly scheduled event in Chicago is this Sunday at a fundraiser for Congresscritter Debbie Halvorson. Click here for details. That place is gonna be mobbed.
* 3:07 pm - Speaker Madigan’s react…
“I commend the Mayor on his long service and respect this very personal decision. His record is one of remarkable accomplishments. One only has to look around the city center to know he was a major force in keeping this city and the region vibrant, alive and on the national stage.
“I am sure he will continue to work with all of us to make Chicago the best place to live work and raise families.”
* The last day to file nominating petitions for mayor is Monday, November 22nd. Petitions can be circulated immediately.
* Congressman Mark Kirk react…
“For 10 years, I worked with Mayor Daley to expand O’Hare, defend Lake Michigan and improve the quality of life for Chicago-area families. My thoughts are with him and Maggie in what must have been a deeply personal decision.”
* Congressman Jesse Jackson, Jr…
“Mayor Daley loves Chicago and clearly loved being mayor. He built or rebuilt many iconic structures and turned Chicago into an international center for business and tourism. But he also leaves the city in extremely poor fiscal shape. And, after 21 years, we still need a third airport; we need to redevelop the old USX site; and we must guarantee that all Chicagoans have access to high-quality jobs, health care, transportation and education. I was never close to the mayor, but he certainly left a major imprint on America’s greatest city.
“Regarding potential successors, I expect there will be numerous candidates, but only a few can mount a serious bid for mayor.”
* The “embellishment” scandal has undoubtedly hurt Republican Congressman Mark Kirk, but to keep working through November it has to be tied to something bigger. This latest effort appears to be the beginning of that…
At the same time, the Giannoulias campaign is pushing on a new front: raising questions about Kirk using his military credentials to push the Iraq war.
The Giannoulias campaign plans to use several quotes from Kirk — found by the campaign in newspaper stories and a House speech — to construct a narrative that “when Congressman Kirk has a political objective, he will say anything to reach it,” Giangreco said.
An Oct. 27, 2002, Daily Herald story said that “Kirk said he has seen classified information that convinced him the resolution was needed.”
Two years later, in 2004, the Herald reported that Kirk “said he had seen ‘direct’ evidence that Hussein presented a threat.”
Kirk made his “moral certitude” speech as the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence in June 2003 — chaired at the time by a Republican — began a review of the “quantity and quality” of what the U.S. intelligence community knew about the existence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq.
Even when members of his own party called for an investigation, Giangreco said, “Congressman Kirk went back to the House floor to repeat the lie. He dug in his heels and repeated what was not true.”
The Giannoulias campaign has posted several videos in the past few days to bolster their case. Here’s the list…
* Congressman Kirk falsely claimed he commands the war room in the Pentagon
* Kirk “misremembered” receiving the Navy’s Officer of the Year award
* Kirk falsely claimed he was the Navy’s Intelligence Officer of the Year
* Congressman Kirk falsely claimed that he was shot at while flying over Iraq
* Congressman Kirk ridiculously claimed he could have stopped the war in Kosovo
* Congressman Kirk falsely claimed he was a nursery school and middle school teacher
* Congressman Kirk ridiculously claimed he is the reason every GOP vote against the stimulus
* As a US Senator, Congressman Kirk said he would lead the effort repeal the health care bill
Kirk is responding by touting his veteran’s record. The NRSC’s press release is far more blunt…
As failed mob banker Alexi Giannoulias (D-IL) fails to capture momentum in the race for the U.S. Senate this November, he’s attempting to buoy his flawed candidacy by desperately questioning U.S. Representative Mark Kirk’s (R-IL) military expertise after Kirk honorably served in our nation’s military.
George Ryan, the ex-Illinois governor sentenced to 6 ½ years in prison for corruption, asked the judge who presided at his trial to throw out parts of his conviction on the basis of a Supreme Court decision this year.
Attorneys for the governor, a Republican, cited the court’s June decision in the case of former Enron Corp. Chief Executive Officer Jeffrey K. Skilling, which narrowed a fraud statute involving so-called deprivation of honest services because it was unconstitutionally vague.
“Under the standard established by Skilling, Ryan’s conviction and sentence are unlawful,” defense attorneys Dan Webb and James Thompson, also a former Republican governor, wrote.
Ryan, 76, was convicted in April 2006 of violations of the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act and mail fraud. The verdict was based on conduct that the Supreme Court found not to be criminal in the Skilling case, his lawyers told U.S. District Judge Rebecca Pallmeyer. Prosecutors relied on the same law in the federal criminal cases against Ryan and former Hollinger International Inc. Chairman Conrad Black.
* The Question: If Ryan is released, do you think he’ll have served enough time to pay for his crimes? Explain.
* Ever since the Daily Herald lost its political reporter (Eric Krol and then Joe Ryan) and its Statehouse bureau chief (John Patterson), its campaign stories have really gone downhill.
A great case in point is the paper’s latest piece on Republican 10th Congressional District candidate Bob Dold and Social Security reform.
The issue first heated up when Dold posted this on his Facebook page and then deleted it…
Congressman Paul Ryan has taken a lot of heat for his Social Security plan, which would allow people under the age of 55 to invest a portion of their FICA tax…
Offers workers under 55 the option of investing over one third of their current Social Security taxes into personal retirement accounts, similar to the Thrift Savings Plan available to Federal employees.
That’s pretty much the same idea that got President George W. Bush is such hot water after the 2006 campaign. And it’s very much like Dold’s own plan which he wrote about before the GOP primary in his Tribune questionnaire…
Additionally, I would propose allowing a portion of Social security payments (not more that 25%) to be put into Government authorized individual retirement accounts that would be able to be passed to heirs if not used
Dold now says on his website only that he would allow people under 55 to invest a “small portion” of their FICA taxes.
Ryan says his plan isn’t privatization, and that’s the only source the Daily Herald used in its alleged fact check…
THE FACTS: The official website for Ryan’s proposal, roadmap.republicans.budget.house.gov, details its concepts for Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and other programs. It also includes a section called “Setting the Record Straight” that seeks to debunk accusations about the plan, as well as another section with answers to frequently asked questions.
According to the website, the Roadmap would not privatize Social Security. The personal accounts it proposes would be managed by a public board.
It’s not difficult to find other sources which claim that Ryan wants to privatize Social Security. But Ryan’s statement is presented as the one and only “fact.”
And instead of quoting Dold’s very own Chicago Tribune questionnaire which cited the 25 percent figure, the Daily Herald instead delved into the semantics of Dold’s original Facebook post and the he said/she said which followed.
I know I’m repeating myself this morning, but this is yet another reason why blogs can often be far better vehicles for reading about politics (or anything else) because they are much more willing to use material from different sources than newspapers are. It’s just stupid that the DH didn’t quote Dold’s Tribune response. It makes zero sense. Their fact check is rendered completely meaningless. I’m not sure why they even bothered.
* To make matters worse, the DH completely botched the admittedly stale deleted Facebook post controversy. This is the explanation the Dold campaign gave me for removing that Paul Ryan post…
It’s Facebook. We put things up and take things down all the time. We’re not announcing policy on Facebook.
And this is what the Dold campaign just told the Daily Herald…
As for the disappearing Facebook post, a Dold spokeswoman said the comment simply was replaced by one about a different issue, the proposed Metra STAR line. Dold stands by the original posting’s message, she said.
Democrat Dan Seals’ campaign watches that Dold Facebook page pretty closely and they say they’ve never seen the Republican delete a post except for that Ryan post. And you don’t “replace” Facebook posts. You can delete them and add a new post, but there’s no such thing as replacing them. It’s a goofy explanation and the Daily Herald “fact check” completely let them skip away clean. Also, if they don’t post about policy on Facebook, why did they post about Metra?
* Meanwhile, the Dan Seals campaign claims its latest poll has the Democrat with a large lead. From a press release…
– WINNING INDEPENDENTS: Seals leads by 5 points among self-identified independent voters, 39% to 34%.
– STRONGER NAME ID: Seals’ name identification remains strong at 74% compared to his opponent, who was recognized by just 47% of respondents. Seals leads in both Cook and Lake Counties and leads with almost every demographic subgroup.
– LARGE CROSSOVER VOTE: In addition to his strong base of Democratic and independent support, Seals is also winning 16% of voters who say they plan to support Mark Kirk in the 2010 U.S. Senate race, pointing to a diverse coalition of bi-partisan support.
The campaign’s polling memo is here. A We Ask America poll taken in early August had this race much closer, with Seals leading Dold by just 3 points. But there have been some problems with that poll’s accuracy.
* The problem with just about all media polls is that the write-ups almost never mention other surveys taken by different pollsters. That means you don’t get any context, and it can lead to outliers being touted as the only definitive results seen by hundreds of thousands of readers/viewers.
The Chicago Tribune is one of the worst offenders. Their numbers, by policy, are all you’ll ever see in their polling stories. And though they’ve improved somewhat over the years, their refusal to release all of their crosstabs means they are still operating in a 20th Century dead tree world. (This is not a knock on the paper’s reporters, mind you, but on corporate policy.)
Take, for instance, the governor’s race. The Tribune has this as a five-point race with Bill Brady leading Gov. Pat Quinn 37-32, with Scott Lee Cohen scoring 4 percent and Green Party nominee Rich Whitney and Libertarian Party candidate Lex Green at 2 each.
This suggests that Quinn’s recent TV ad buy touting Brady’s pro-gun views might have moved some numbers. But that could also just be a function of different polling techniques, considering that Brady’s unfavorable rating was only 19 percent in the Trib poll. The Tribune obviously does not push voters very hard to make up their minds, and not including “leaners” at this advanced stage is a big mistake.
* You also won’t see the Tribune mention stuff like the TPM PollTracker…
More telling, barely half of Democrats say they support Quinn’s call for higher taxes, while a quarter of them side with Republican Brady, who has said he won’t detail his proposed budget cuts until after the Nov. 2 election.
At the same time, more voters back Brady’s call for more widespread business tax cuts to spur job creation than get behind Quinn’s reliance on passage of the state’s first public works construction program in more than a decade.
But a telling sign for Quinn may be voter reaction to one of his most recurring themes — that he worked to restore trust in state government following the Blagojevich scandal. Under Quinn, lawmakers enacted the first-ever campaign-donation limits, though some criticized them for having loopholes. The General Assembly also agreed to put on the November ballot a proposed constitutional amendment allowing a limited form of recall of a governor.
Yet 70 percent of the state’s voters said they don’t believe Quinn has done enough to curb corruption in Illinois government, including nearly six of 10 Democratic voters and about three-quarters of those who classify themselves as independents.
It would be nice to see the wording of the questions at hand and some crosstabs, but no dice.
Currently, 37 percent of voters identify themselves as Democrats and 27 percent say they’re Republicans — a 10-percentage-point differential that is about half the advantage Democrats had entering the 2008 election. Another 31 percent call themselves political independents.
This is real trouble as well…
Despite national polls forecasting a potential wave for Republicans that could let them recapture the House, 45 percent of Illinois voters said Democrats should maintain control of Congress, compared with 37 percent who back the GOP.
As we’ve discussed before, so many Illinois congressional districts are so heavily gerrymandered to favor the Democrats that this 8-point margin signifies serious problems ahead.
And this ain’t good either…
More than 6 in 10 lack confidence in Democratic-run Springfield, though the angst isn’t limited to Illinois borders. Fully 55 percent of the voters say they don’t have much or any confidence that the federal government will make the right decisions affecting them, according to the poll of 600 registered Illinois voters conducted Aug. 28-Wednesday. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
But this is kinda meaningless, depending on how the question was worded…
A total of 83 percent of the voters said Blagojevich’s conviction will make no difference in whether they oppose or support Democratic candidates on the ballot.
A majority of the 600 Illinois registered voters surveyed still gave a positive review to Obama’s performance as president — but it is barely a majority. In all, 51 percent said they approved of the job he has done as president while 39 percent disapproved.
I didn’t see any regional breakdowns online, but we can probably infer that he ain’t doing well in the suburbs and Downstate. PPP’s latest poll had Obama’s approval at 49 percent and disapproval at 46 percent. Rasmussen’s survey had Obama’s approval at 53 and disapproval at 47. An NBC/Wall Street Journal national poll had the president’s approval at 45 percent.
* Politicians Turn Out for Labor Day Rally: QUINN: This election on Nov. 2, it’s all about the economy, it’s all about jobs, it’s all about a governor, who believes, as I do, in the minimum wage.
The latest Labor Department report shows there are nearly 9 million people like Linehan who want full-time jobs but can’t find them. In some cases, their formerly full-time employers have reduced their hours because of a lack of business.
What some economists now project — and policymakers are loath to admit — is that the U.S. unemployment rate, which stood at 9.6% in August, could remain elevated for years to come.
The nation’s job deficit is so deep that even a powerful recovery would leave large numbers of Americans out of work for years, experts say. And with growth now weakening, analysts are doubtful that companies will boost payrolls significantly any time soon. Unemployment, long considered a temporary, transitional condition in the United States, appears to be settling in for a lengthy run.
* Steinberg: Chicagoans still make stuff in a tough economy
But I’ve read one too many Labor Day joblessness stories, and I feel obligated to point out that gloom itself won’t revive the economy. At some point, it might help to lift our heads and realize that the news isn’t grim everywhere. People still have jobs. Nine out of 10 Chicagoans are working — 40 employees just at Chicago Mailing Tube, manufacturer of cardboard tubes of all sorts, from Parmesan cheese containers to concrete forms.
Like a poker player who has gone all in on a bet that’s too big to lose, the Daley administration is expected to explain to aldermen on Tuesday why it needs to quickly issue $1 billion in new bonds to prevent the expansion of O’Hare International Airport from folding. […]
Ultimately, the city will need to raise at least $3.3 billion to finish the job — and that’s without new terminals, a People Mover extension and other infrastructure that Chicago officials once deemed integral to building the first runways at O’Hare in almost 40 years.
Reynolds’ most important job will be to help CHA complete its Plan for Transformation, the ambitious effort launched in 2000 to replace or rehab 25,000 apartments and — most importantly — improve residents’ lives.
Ten years into that plan, the CHA has rehabbed nearly all its senior citizen buildings and about 63 percent of a promised 5,000 units in traditional public housing projects.
But it’s woefully behind in building its promised 7,700 apartments in mixed-income communities. The CHA and its private development partners have delivered only 3,000 units, just 38 percent of its goal.
Under the agreement, Pitassi could collect his pension of $8,125 a month plus his consultant’s salary of $65,000 a year, for more than $162,000 a year.
At the time, Melrose Park Mayor Ronald Serpico called the arrangement “a good-government thing.”
Unfortunately for Pitassi, the state didn’t agree, and despite efforts by village officials to make the deal work for Pitassi, he wound up giving the pension money back.
With the deal dead, village officials promptly rehired Pitassi back as police chief in July this year — at $130,000 a year.
Misconceptions have flourished since the meeting. It was not secret. The approach does not rely on “gang leaders.” It was not a negotiation. Nobody is or will be framed for anything. It was not even that unusual, even for Chicago, where Project Safe Neighborhoods, launched here by U.S. Attorney Patrick Fitzgerald some years ago, has been routinely meeting with parolees in very similar settings.
