Drought politics
Tuesday, Jul 17, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Union members and southern Illinois legislators weren’t the only people attempting to garner a little media attention yesterday when Gov. Pat Quinn held a press conference about drought disaster relief. A northern Illinois legislator also tried to get in on the act…
State Rep. Jack Franks is calling on Gov. Pat Quinn to add McHenry County to the list of communities declared drought disasters.
More than 1,000 communities in 26 states have been declared natural-disaster areas by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, including some southern Illinois communities. The disaster declaration makes low-interest loans available to farmers to cover crop losses and provides other assistance for those struggling in adverse growing conditions. […]
“While southern Illinois farmers are facing the prospect of complete crop losses due to drought conditions, McHenry County farmers are also dealing with extremely dry conditions with no end in sight,” Franks said in a news release.
* From the latest update by the Illinois Water Survey…
As you can see, northern Illinois is in a drought, but it’s nowhere near as severe as central and southern Illinois.
* And here’s the trigger…
counties have demonstrated crop reduction losses of 30 percent or more, which is the USDA threshold for triggering disaster relief
* Quinn added several more counties to the disaster list yesterday…
* A photo from yesterday. Not good at all…
* But there is no doubt that this is a statewide problem…
Only two percent of the state’s topsoil moisture is adequate right now, and only four percent of the subsoil moisture is in that category.
Corn development continues to be stunted by hot and dry conditions. Many fields are turning yellow, which typically does not happen until mid-August. Nearly all of the corn is silking at 93 percent, compared to 52 percent at this time last year, which was about average. Corn in the dough stage is well ahead of the six percent average pace at 20 percent. Only 11 percent of the Illinois corn crop is rated good or excellent this week, down eight percentage points from last week.
The state is seeing 70 percent of its soybean crop blooming, compared to 37 percent last year and the five-year average of 42 percent. Fifteen percent of the soybean crop is setting pods. Just 17 percent of soybeans are rated good or excellent, down three percent from last week.
* And a national problem…
The drought gripping the United States is the widest since 1956, according to new data released Monday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Fifty-five per cent of the continental U.S. was in a moderate to extreme drought by the end of June, NOAA’s National Climactic Data Center in Asheville, North Carolina, said in its monthly State of the Climate drought report. That’s the largest percentage since December 1956, when 58 per cent of America was covered by drought.
This summer, 80 per cent of the U.S. is abnormally dry, and the report said the drought expanded in the West, Great Plains and Midwest last month with the 14th warmest and 10th driest June on record.
Franks may well get his wish soon enough.
* Related…
* Illinois drought relief efforts expanded
* State law allows harvesting hay on rights-of-way
* Drought could have lasting impact on livestock production
* Drought likely to hit you hard in the pocketbook
* Mississippi River runs low as drought grips St. Louis region: At Ceres Barge Line, based in East St. Louis, 70 percent of the 200-barge fleet is tied up at the dock. Owner Mark Fletcher blames the drought, which also continues to ravage the corn crop and threaten the soybean crop. Prices are going up, and export demand is dipping.
* Stephenson County added to drought relief request list
- wishbone - Tuesday, Jul 17, 12 @ 11:32 am:
Of course, the republican’s denial of climate change is one way to insure that the problem goes away. A society that has no respect for science or the environment has no future.
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Jul 17, 12 @ 11:37 am:
The feds love to bailout farmers. How about a low interest loan to bolster the pension system since that money was spent on the noble programs instead of evil public employees?
- Crime Fighter - Tuesday, Jul 17, 12 @ 11:40 am:
Now seems to be an opportunity to dredge (or pick-up) some of the silt and debris from public waterways. This would increase the capacity and improve safety.
However our dysfunctional two-party political system doesn’t give me great hope that this type of responsible public policy action will happen.
- amalia - Tuesday, Jul 17, 12 @ 11:42 am:
would write “praying for rain,” but think that is what the climate change denial squad would do. but, while the drought is difficult for everyone (ask my garden. everybody water your trees!) it is most difficult for the farmers of Illinois and they should have our good thoughts as well as drought relief.
- College Professor - Tuesday, Jul 17, 12 @ 11:47 am:
Wow- wishbone thinks scientists can change the climate and make the drought go away. Scientists just discovered the Roman warming period that they apparently missed and changed their model to accomodate the changed data. That sounds like pseudo science to me but they can get their raise now because they have another published article.
- RNUG - Tuesday, Jul 17, 12 @ 12:11 pm:
Maybe this is a sign Springfield should finish Hunter Lake?
- titan - Tuesday, Jul 17, 12 @ 12:51 pm:
@Wishbone - I don’t think anyone disputes that the climate changes over time. The question that is not settled is the degree to which human activity causes change (and the achievable options for mitigating or dealing with the human component)
- western illinois - Tuesday, Jul 17, 12 @ 12:52 pm:
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/03/07/381411/brutal-droughts-global-warming-threaten-food-production/
Its a global drought. I liked the link to livestock effects. That will really be felt by next year if we are in a multi-year dry period.There will be no viable way to produce meat because of teh cost of the feed. Meat demand is not inelastic so consumption will fall dramatically and not allow the price to match the cost of feed
- Apple - Tuesday, Jul 17, 12 @ 12:59 pm:
I believe Secretary Vilsack has the discretion to declare a disaster - whether or not the respective county hits the 30 percent threshold.
- cover - Tuesday, Jul 17, 12 @ 1:14 pm:
So who’s been doing the rain dance around Macoupin County? It’s the only place in Illinois, aside from a tiny spot near Muscatine, Iowa, that is no worse than 4 inches below normal.
- Shore - Tuesday, Jul 17, 12 @ 1:18 pm:
The tea party and conservatives like to trash government, government services and other government programs, will be interesting to see how people like mr. plummer handle issues like this and if democrats are able to catch them in blips of hypocrisy saying they’d vote to cut budgets for programs like this while calling on the gov, president, congress to provide help here.
- WCIL Farmer - Tuesday, Jul 17, 12 @ 1:30 pm:
The USDA disaster assistance to farmers is nothing more than a feel good program for the politicians, especially in an election year. If it’s like past programs there will be way too much red tape involved and very few farmers will use it. I am a farmer that is looking at a corn crop that is maybe 10% of normal production and won’t use it. I carry crop insurance that will help defer the cost of planting a crop and will survive to try it again next year but you certainly won’t get rich off it.
- Ahoy! - Tuesday, Jul 17, 12 @ 1:32 pm:
Republican’s have issues a press release blaming Obama and Quinn for the drought.
- Endangered Moderate Species - Tuesday, Jul 17, 12 @ 1:33 pm:
Most farmers have crop insurance. The government should be careful about jumping in to quickly.
- Apple - Tuesday, Jul 17, 12 @ 1:46 pm:
Some help is better than no help. Don’t let perfect be the enemy of the good.
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Jul 17, 12 @ 2:12 pm:
“Most farmers have crop insurance. The government should be careful about jumping in to quickly.”
Many don’t. And a large majority of those that do, only have it at a subsistence level, barely enough to make it to next year and plant another crop. Animals don’t eat dollars, if there’s no feed/grain to buy, all the insurance indemnities in the country won’t save the livestock industry. Less grain to handle puts elevator employees, truckers and processor employees out of work. We’ve not even begun to feel the effects of this drought.
- TimB - Tuesday, Jul 17, 12 @ 2:20 pm:
Anon at 2:12 was me. Sorry.
- Phineas Fogg - Tuesday, Jul 17, 12 @ 2:22 pm:
One of the (many) financial aspects of this drought and it’s myriad financial implications that will soon be impacting the country’s economy will be the fact that agricultural land values will soon begin to “implode”. We saw what happened when the bubble burst in the housing market. The next bubble that is about to burst (due to this drought) is that farmland prices are about to drop like a hot rock.
Farmers have been relatively unscathed by the country’s recession up until now. Farm yields have been good and farmer’s grain prices have been better—that is until now. Grain prices will remain high but grain yields will be disastrous. Farmers will now have to go to the local banks to borrow money to put in the next year’s crop. We all know how willing the banks have been to loan out money. They haven’t. They have been struggling to have enough money on hand to meet newer and far more stringent Federal banking requirements. Farmers are about to experience what the home owners have just experienced during the past 3 years–the bursting of another bubble (farmland prices) in the United States economy. I look for at least a 15%-20% drop in farmland values during the next 12-18 months. Farmers have always been the primary buyer of farmland. Now, they don’t have the extra cash to do so due to the drought. They know that we might have another drought come next year at this time. This definitely isn’t going to help the United States with our country’s “balance of payments”, either. The US exported and sold a lot of grain to the world market over the past 30 years and this helped the US with our balance of payments. The US government gave grain away to third world countries that needed our foreigh aid (think Egypt, Pakistan, etc.) That is about to change. It will be interesting to see how Barack deals with this next economic crisis. Perhaps he could always ask Mitt Romney for his economic expertise and help on what he should do next? We are about to see where “the rubber meets the road” when it comes to “somebody’s” vodoo economics in Washington. This should become very interesting.
- Endangered Moderate Species - Tuesday, Jul 17, 12 @ 2:26 pm:
Anonymous: I understand your point about the effect this will have on the livestock markets. My comment about crop insurance is based on what I am hearing from my grain farming neighbors in Central Illinois. When they are asked about the drought, they explain they are like any other business and they have insurance to help offset any unexpected losses. They are concerned, but most of them are prepared for this type of event.
- Way Way Down Here - Tuesday, Jul 17, 12 @ 2:27 pm:
It just started to rain. Is there a press conference somewhere?
- Cheryl44 - Tuesday, Jul 17, 12 @ 2:59 pm:
Way Way Down Here
I’m telling ya–Quinn should have started his praying for rain months ago. And he should pray for a means to a balanced budget including shoring up the pension funds.
- Both Sides Now - Tuesday, Jul 17, 12 @ 3:13 pm:
I heard from a friend in Southern Illinois yesterday. They have started harvesting their fields. Yield is approx 2 bushels/acre. For those of you that aren’t farmers, most farmers like to yeild 150-200 bushels/acre. To further the illustration: your average laundry basket is about a bushel & an acre is a little smaller than a football field with no end zones. Imagine getting 2 laundry baskets of corn from a football field!
It doesn’t matter if this is climate change or just a “once ever 75 years drought”, the impact will be widespread. Literally every industry will be affected by the trickle-down affect and it will hit us in our pockets. If you thought the U.S. was moving out of a recession, the economy is about ready to take another nosedive.
- wordslinger - Tuesday, Jul 17, 12 @ 3:32 pm:
Corn and beans rule Washington. They’re protected by market vagaries more than anyone. So individual farmers aren’t going to get whacked on margin.
But feed will go through the roof, and so will your chicken, beef and pork.
Might be a good time to push to get rid of ethanol subsidies.
- Responsa - Tuesday, Jul 17, 12 @ 3:36 pm:
Phineas Fogg –I’m not sure how you arrive at your knowledge of farming but many of your observations of impending doom in cropland prices and a looming credit bubble seem off kilter from what is actually going on in farm country. Do you have experience with farming or live in a rural area? The land price bubble you claim will pop will in fact only pop in a catastrophic way if the cropland was purchased recently at very high prices with big loans and it is foreclosed. That is not a significant concern. Most farm land in this state does not fall into that category. Much farmland has been owned free and clear by families for generations. Some land is bought for cash and sometimes in trade. City speculators and agencies buying valuable land for smaller non-operator investors generally do not have big mortgages, either. (These investors were looking for a relatively safe place to park their capital in a lousy economy.) Regular Midwest farmers are some of the most frugal and fiscally conservative people on the planet and many will not require bank loans to plant next spring even if this crop is largely a disappointment. Many lessons were learned in the 1980s that will never be repeated in Agriculture financing and land spec. in Illinois.
The people who will suffer most from the current drought are consumers of food when grocery prices rise, purveyors of farm implements, sellers of cattle, and the small businesses in rural areas where farmers will temporarily cut back on discretionary spending due to lower income this year.
- Responsa - Tuesday, Jul 17, 12 @ 3:41 pm:
==Might be a good time to push to get rid of ethanol subsidies.==
I’m all in with that, but the gov’t mandate to put ethanol in fuel has to go first.
- Phineas Fogg - Tuesday, Jul 17, 12 @ 3:50 pm:
That photo of the unfilled ear of corn that Rich has shown above is probably going to have a larger political impact than many of us would imagine. Sometimes a picture is worth more than a thousand words. I remember how that photo of a North Vietnamese on his knees being shot in the head by a South Vietnamese soldier did “major damage” to the argument that the US should be over in Vietnam. General Westmoreland and the idea of US troops being in Vietnam “was toast” after the media sent that picture back to the US public. Jane Fonda “was off & running” when that photograph came out back then.
- TimB - Tuesday, Jul 17, 12 @ 4:21 pm:
EMS, my comments are based on my 10+ years experience selling crop insurance to farmers in central Illinois. Yes, many are covered with crop insurance. Most to the tune of 75-80% of their 10 year yield average. Allowing for increased yields that last 2-3 crop years, their probably looking at a 30-50% reduction in gross income. As someone has said, the big losers will be the businesses that depend on the farmer’s discretionary spending on equipment, vehicles, recreation, and non-essential items. Those businesses have done well the last several years. That’s about to come to a screaming halt.
- Phineas Fogg - Tuesday, Jul 17, 12 @ 4:23 pm:
To Responsa: Your points are well made. Sorry but I did not mean to imply that all is “gloom & doom” and the sky is falling but simply that the implications from this drought are much greater than most folks are anticipating. It is “a given” that food prices in the grocery store are about to go higher. This won’t help Ben, Turbo-Tim, or Barack in their quest to catch and package the pies flying off of the end of the conveyor belt at the bakery. Farmers are the “primary buyers” of farmland in the country. I did not mean to imply that they are now destitute. Far from it.These guys are great businessmen but dry weather is beyond their control. Cash rents (in my opinion) are almost certain to be headed down and so is “discretionary spending” by our conservative Midwest farmers. This will exacerbate an already tepid economy in the country (in my opinion). My opinion is simply that farmers are likely to be “far more hesitant” to bid on additional farmground at these current farmland values. It is simply “an opinion” and time will tell if I am wrong. I hope that I am wrong but I don’t think so. Farmland values will be viewed by some potential farmland buyers as over-inflated based on what has just happened. An investor (including conservative farmers) will also realize that we could have another drought next year at this time. That will slow down any potential investor and make them reflect on whether they are going to bid on more farmland regardless of how well-off they are. That was all that I was trying to express.
- johhnypizza - Tuesday, Jul 17, 12 @ 4:52 pm:
It’s too bad we didn’t know or understand climate change in the mid 1930s or 1956. We could have avoided this according to “wishbone” et al. What is important is the severe impact this will have on the price of food, and the value of farm land, especially if this continues for another year or two which these type of droughts seem to do. I believe that NONE of this limited crop should go into energy production. It must all be used for food. Hello higher energy prices. Time to strap it on. Looks like it could be a big economic storm. Hope and pray I am wrong.
- sal-says - Tuesday, Jul 17, 12 @ 4:59 pm:
There ARE NO politics in drought.
- wishbone - Tuesday, Jul 17, 12 @ 6:16 pm:
“The question that is not settled is the degree to which human activity causes change (and the achievable options for mitigating or dealing with the human component)”
The fact that human activity is a major cause of the gases that in turn cause climate change is agreed to by 99% of climate scientists. Only those in the hip pocket of the fossil fuel industry “believe” otherwise and they are well compensated for their beliefs. Climate change denial is the single greatest threat to out children’s future. This summer is only a taste of the disaster that is coming.
- College Professor - Tuesday, Jul 17, 12 @ 6:56 pm:
Wishbone: Read Interacademy Council investigation of the IPCC and you’ll find the conclusions that the IPCC was not operating within standards of the academic and scientific community. The report clearly spells out how criticisms of published articles were never considered. The literature was never peer reviewed. Your claim (not cited) is simply not true.
- Give Me A Break - Tuesday, Jul 17, 12 @ 6:56 pm:
Will the downstate members of the Tea Party hold a rally calling for the farmers to reject any Big Gvt. help. It would only be right, maybe McCarter could lead the rally.
- western illinois - Tuesday, Jul 17, 12 @ 9:46 pm:
Theres is venting of methane from the arctic,the loss of arctic ice predicted by the IPCC in 2080 that is happening now There is todays calving of another Greenland Glacier an d the the current worldwide drought and heat waves also prediced for late century due to the collapse of the jet strea(New Scientist this week)The IPCC was wrong its much worse
By 2030 no one will give a damn about Illinois pensions or possibly Illinois
- wishbone - Tuesday, Jul 17, 12 @ 10:06 pm:
“Your claim (not cited) is simply not true.”
How about this from Wikipedia: “As the representative of the world’s scientific and engineering academies,the InterAcademy Council (IAC) issued a report in 2007 titled Lighting the Way: Toward a Sustainable Energy Future. Current patterns of energy resources and energy usage are proving detrimental to the long-term welfare of humanity. The integrity of essential natural systems is already at risk from climate change caused by the atmospheric emissions of greenhouse gases. Concerted efforts should be mounted for improving energy efficiency and reducing the carbon intensity of the world economy.”
in addition, for college professor you seriously misrepresent the conclusions of Interacademy Council’s review of the IPCC assessment process. While recommending improved procedures they also state: “The Committee concludes that the IPCC assessment process has been successful overall and has served society well. The commitment of many
thousands of the world’s leading scientists and other experts to the assessment process and to the communication of the nature of our understanding
of the changing climate, its impacts, and possible adaptation and mitigation strategies is a considerable achievement in its own right.”
Hardly the criticism you imply. Human caused climate change is real and well accepted by the scientific community including the Interacademy Council.
- Jimbo - Tuesday, Jul 17, 12 @ 10:56 pm:
The support systems vital to modern farming could collapse Fertilizer suppliers,grain processing and storage,seed companies are critical to today’s farming and tomorrow’s farming.That could be disastrous.These operations have to rely on good crops and that’s not happened and, it’s not going to ’cause there’s no water,.Mother Nature will always win,regardless of the sanctimonious explanations of it being all our fault.supernatural rationalizing,or other off the wall theories.
- Tony Cisneros - Tuesday, Jul 17, 12 @ 11:45 pm:
As A Former Candidate For City Treasurer Of Chicago, IL–As Pat Quinn Served IL As STATE Treasurer Years Back–I Totally REPUDIATE QUINN’S HYPOCRISY In Asking ILLINOISIANS To Pray For Rain; When, QUINN Has INSULTED GOD ALMIGHTY In Supporting “SAME-SEX ‘MARRIAGE’ ” In ILLINOIS ! ! !
Could It Be GOD ALMIGHTY Is PUNISHING ILLINOIS & HER GOVERNOR For SINNING AGAINST HIS HOLY DIVINE LAW OF MARRIAGE BEING CONFINED ONLY TO MALES & FEMALES: ala ADAM & EVE (NOT ADAM & STEVE &-OR EVA & EVE) ? ? ?
Truthfully, Honestly & Sincerely Yours,
Tony Cisneros,
2011 Candidate For City Treasurer,
City Of Chicago,
State Of Illinois,
United States Of America.
- wordslinger - Wednesday, Jul 18, 12 @ 12:11 am:
Tony, as you are a former candidate for city treasurer, your direct line to understanding God’s wrath is clear.
The only explanation for drought here in Illinois is that God is mad at Pat Quinn for supporting same-sex marriage. What else could it be?
As to why there is drought across the rest of the country, maybe you can give us the lowdown on the thinking of a very angry and vengeful God so we can straighten up and fly right.
While you’re at it, I’ve always wondered, since you’re down on the Bible and the whole marriage thing: Where did Cain and Abel find those wives, anyway? Was there some biker bar on the Eden/Nod county line?
- VanillaMan - Wednesday, Jul 18, 12 @ 6:33 am:
When idiots point towards the empty burning skies to proclaim that it is the work of God due to our driving SUVs, allowing gay marriage, burning carbon based fuels, not eating organic, not reading the Bible, not fighting jihad, capitalist greed, or anything else but recognition of normal cyclical weather patterns, we’ve entered the Stone Age mentally.
Whether you are a global warming worshipper, or an Torah or Koran fundamentalist, you folks need to get a grip.