U.S. Rep. Bobby Schilling (R-Colona) today released a new poll from Public Opinions Strategies showing that, despite millions being spent against him by outside groups in recent weeks, Schilling is starting to pull away from his opponent, Cheri Bustos (D-East Moline).
At the same time, Schilling released fundraising totals for the third quarter showing he raised $617,826.37 in that span, pushing his total fundraising efforts for the 2011-12 election cycle over $2.1 million. The campaign currently has $839,000 cash on hand.
The Public Opinion Strategies poll surveyed 400 likely voters and gave Schilling a 51-44 lead over Bustos. 45 percent of voters had a favorable opinion of Schilling, while 34 percent of voters had an unfavorable opinion of him. Meanwhile, just 34 percent of voters had a favorable opinion of Bustos, while 38 percent of voters had an unfavorable opinion of her. The poll also found that President Obama leads Mitt Romney in the Illinois 17th District by a 50-44 margin.
We Ask America had Bustos ahead by less than a point on October 9th. The firm had Obama ahead of Romney by almost 12 points, not the 6-point margin in Schilling’s poll.
* Meanwhile, the DCCChas a new poll showing Democrat Brad Schneider leading Republican Bob Dold by a single point, 44-43. That October 14th poll tracks pretty closely with We Ask America’s October 9th poll which had Dold up by less than 2 points. This race appears to be quite close.
The data in this memo is from a survey of 451 likely 2012 voters conducted October 14, 2012, in Illinois’ 10th Congressional district. Respondents’ information came from the voter file and respondents were interviewed over the phone by an automated survey. The margin of error is 4.6%.
* OK, on to the DCCC’s new TV ads. The first hits Bobby Schilling on Medicare….
Script…
We work a lifetime for these moments…
We save…and plan so there’s peace of mind in retirement.
But some in Washington like Bobby Schilling would end that security… end the guarantee of Medicare…
Schilling would hand decisions about our health care to insurance companies…
To give more tax breaks to millionaires.
Bobby Schilling needs to remember: he works for us.
And we work our whole lives…for this.
* Another “Jason Plummer’s never had to work for anything” spot…
Script…
In Washington, special interests are drowning out the middle-class.
But if you send this Plummer to Congress, he’ll make it worse.
Jason Plummer signed a pledge that protected tax breaks for corporations that outsource jobs.
And he’d give more tax breaks to millionaires like himself — while making the middle-class pay thousands more.
Jason Plummer’s never had to work for anything…what makes you think he’ll work for you?
47,000 Illinois jobs lost.
Sent overseas in unfair trade deals.
47,000 families left to scrape by… while corporations are rewarded for the mass layoffs.
Rewarded by politicians like Rodney Davis who want to hand them tax breaks for shipping our jobs overseas.
47,000 more reasons why Rodney Davis is wrong for Illinois.
I didn’t see any new GOP ads posted on YouTube this afternoon, but if or when I do I’ll update the post.
*** UPDATE *** A pretty good Rodney Davis ad I missed…
New Poll Shows Romano in close battle with 26 year incumbent Lang
Could it be? Could Rep. Lou Lang (D-Skokie) really be in trouble?
* Not so much…
In a poll conducting by Victory Media Group of Glenview from October 9-11, challenger Vince Romano scored 44.2% of the vote to 26-year incumbent Democrat Lou Lang’s 55.8%.
OK, so Lang is well over 50. And the pollster isn’t a pollster.
* But it gets better. Check out the questions the pollster asked…
* 16th District State Representative Lou Lang has been in office for 25 years– since 1987. Last year he joined 59 Democrats and zero Republicans to pass a 67% tax increase on personal income and 46% tax increase on business income. Knowing this…
Less/More Likely to Vote for Lou Lang
Less Likely 57.5
More Likely 17.9
No Difference 24.6
* If the election for your State Representative were held today between 25 year incumbent Democrat Lou Lang and Republican businessman Vincent Romano, who opposes tax increases and will vote to repeal them if elected.
Lou Lang 55.8
Vincent Romano 44.2
* The Question: Could you come up with a more lopsided set of poll questions?
Snark, of course, is heavily encouraged.
…Adding… Your answer doesn’t have to be about Lou Lang, unless you really want to, of course.
* The Sun-Times has the list of potential replacements for retired US Attorney Patrick Fitzgerald. US Sen. Dick Durbin will make the pick, but Sen. Mark Kirk has veto power. Check it out…
◆ Patrick Collins, who led the successful high-profile prosecution of former Gov. George Ryan and now works with law firm Perkins Coie.
◆ Zach Fardon, who also prosecuted Ryan and is now in private practice with Latham and Watkins.
◆ Judge Virginia Kendall, appointed to the federal bench in 2006 by President George W. Bush. Kendall has had her criminal cases reassigned while she competes for the top prosecutor’s job.
◆ Lori Lightfoot, one of the city’s leading African-American attorneys, once the chief administrator at the Chicago Police Department’s Office of Professional Standards, now works with law firm Mayer Brown.
◆ John Bunge, a former deputy chief of the U.S. attorney’s general crimes section in Chicago, who now works with the Kirkland & Ellis law firm.
◆ John Lausch, who led the prosecution of several corrupt cops cases and now also works with Kirkland & Ellis, specializing in white-collar criminal defense and securities enforcement.
◆ Ricardo Meza, the former head of the Mexican American Legal Defense Fund, appointed Executive Inspector General for Illinois by Quinn in 2010.
◆ Gil Soffer, who worked in Washington, D.C., under former Deputy Attorney General Mark Filip, has served as a commissioner on the Illinois Executive Ethics Commission and now works with law firm Katten.
* As we’ve already seen, Republican Congressman Bob Dold used his mom in a TV ad to bolster his claims that he won’t harm Social Security or Medicare. Republican Congressman Bobby Schilling uses his grandmother to make the same point, but with a harder edge at the end…
Jackson told The Daily that he is “not well” and has doctor’s appointments twice a day at George Washington University Hospital, not far from his home in the trendy DuPont Circle neighborhood: “I go over there … at 10 [a.m.] and 1 p.m.”
Jackson didn’t address the allegation that he misused money from his supporters — to decorate his home.
* The publication did apparently confirm that Jackson went out on the town the other night, but it didn’t seem like a big deal…
Jesse Jackson Jr. showed up at the Bier Baron Tavern last Tuesday and Wednesday, the first time he had been seen in a public place since going on leave.
Jackson caught the attention of both patrons and the staff. A server who would identify himself only as “Frank” told The Daily that Jackson was with a group that included both men and women.
“He was here. He was drinking. He was with other people,” Frank said. “I personally didn’t serve his table.”
Some commenters wondered why I didn’t post that breathless and oddly sourced Gawker story yesterday. Well, there you have it.
* Freshman Republican Bob Dold has complained that Democrat Brad Schneider’s ad which calls him a “Tea Party loyalist” is a fabrication. Well, the House Majority PAC has now doubled down…
Dold ain’t gonna like that one.
* Dold, by the way, has a major cash advantage over Schneider in the 10th CD…
Team Dold netted $993,509 in donations during the quarter, according to the campaign’s report. For the entire election cycle, the Dold campaign has received an estimated $3.9 million from donors.
The Dold campaign spent $832,560 during the quarter and $1.9 million during the race so far, records show.
The Dold campaign ended the period with $2.3 million in the bank and $44,480 in debts.
Schneider’s campaign netted $777,268 in donations during the last quarter. For the campaign, he’s received nearly $2.3 million in campaign checks.
Schneider spent more than Dold during the quarter, reporting nearly $1.1 million in expenses. Overall, the Schneider campaign has spent $2.1 million on the race. That includes money spent during the contested Democratic primary. Dold ran unopposed in the GOP primary.
Schneider finished the quarter with $267,625 in the bank — roughly 11 percent of the funds in Dold’s campaign war chest.
* Related…
* Dold, Schneider discuss bipartisanship, health care reform: Dold, though, said the act addressed access to insurance, not quality. He said the way to drive down medical costs is through consumer-driven plans. While a large portion of the country gets its health insurance through employers, Dold said he has talked to business owners who would prefer to pay a required penalty in exchange for sending their employees to find alternatives on the “free market.” “I can think of few things more terrifying than to tell someone they’re on their own to get health care,” Dold said.
* Dold Discards Norquist Pledge in Debate With Schneider: Dold then touted his support of the Cooper-LaTourette financial plan as an alternative to the House Republican Budget authored by Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI), his party’s vice presidential candidate. He was one of eight co-sponsors—four Democrats and four Republicans… “I’ll do it in a way we will be able to get more than 38 votes,” Schneider said of his intentions to work with Republicans. “The day after (Cooper La Tourette was defeated) he (Dold) voted for the Ryan budget that will replace Medicare with a voucher system.”
* The constant media drumbeat about how public employees need to essentially be punished for their “lavish” pensions isn’t working, according to the Tribune’s latest poll…
Illinois voters overwhelmingly blame politicians for creating the state’s public employee pension mess, but like elected officials, they’re divided about plans to fix the problem, a new Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV poll shows.
* This was a quickie poll question. The consequences weren’t totally laid out. We need better numbers. But when less than a third of the population supports an idea, it may be time to rethink that idea. And it also means that even harsher ideas should be looked at with much suspicion.
The proposal also drew 55 percent opposition from white suburban women, moderate voters that include so-called soccer moms especially concerned about education. Only 28 percent of that group backed the cost shift. Among independent voters, a key demographic that influences state elections, the idea was rejected 44 percent to 31 percent.
The Chicago Democrats have really shot themselves in the foot with that plan.
Could the race for the Illinois House in the 96th District actually become a race? Apparently, yes.
It hasn’t seemed like it for several weeks. Democrat SUE SCHERER of Decatur, who won a close contest in the primary, has had TV ads running and fliers carrying her picture filling mailboxes across the district, which runs from Decatur into central Springfield. There’s been virtually nothing to match those public efforts from Republican DENNIS SHACKELFORD of Rochester. […]
As of late last week, meanwhile, Schackelford’s only disclosed large donation from the House Republican Organization since July was $5,100 worth of telephone polling. Total large donations reported in that time were less than $17,000.
But things will be changing, said KEVIN ARTL, political director of the House GOP campaign organization.
“It goes back to the old saying, ‘You can’t buy me love,’” Artl said, saying his group believes Scherer’s support has leveled off. “Voters have seen through it,” he said. “We’re going to do a full plan here (for Shackelford) for the final 30 days.” In that short time frame, he said, “We can invest less than the Democrats, but get a higher rate of return.”
Since then, the Republicans have put in just $5,873.28 for a mailer.
* And now, a couple of their members are complaining to the media. But they’re not upset with their own party for failing to get involved. They’re agnry that the House Democrats are playing to win…
Republicans have not poured nearly as much into Dennis Shackelford’s attempt to win the open seat, which stretches between Decatur and Springfield. Reports show Shackelford, a small business owner from Rochester, had $11,000 in his account after raising $16,666 during the quarter.
Shackelford is trying to make Scherer’s fundraising an issue on the campaign trail. On Tuesday, he has scheduled a press conference with GOP state Reps. Adam Brown of Decatur and Bill Mitchell of Forsyth to highlight Madigan’s financial influence in the race, which includes paying for a direct mail campaign and other big ticket expenditures.
* Rep. Mitchell had $141,907.78 in his campaign fund at the end of the third quarter. He has no opposition in the general election. As of now, Rep. Mitchell hasn’t contributed a dime to Shackelford’s campaign.
The reason that the House Republicans didn’t put any money into this race is because of that expenditure Bernie reported…
Schackelford’s only disclosed large donation from the House Republican Organization since July was $5,100 worth of telephone polling
That polling expenditure was reported on August 24th. After that, no more money was spent on Shackleford until this month.
What does that tell you?
Well, it’s kinda obvious. When you see that somebody paid for a poll and then that somebody doesn’t spend any more money, it’s a pretty good sign that the poll wasn’t exactly favorable.
* Let me make this clear. I don’t blame the HGOPs for not playing there. It’s a Democratic-leaning district and their candidate just hasn’t yet gotten any traction. They have other candidates in relatively close races who have worked very hard and deserve the cash a whole lot more. If I had to bet money, I’d say the recent Shackleford mailer was likely the SJ-R endorsement. That’ll help, but it won’t be nearly enough.
So, if Reps. Mitchell and Brown show up at that press conference without large checks in hand, their presser should be treated for what it is. Empty whining.
* But, hey, I suppose the press conference is not a bad idea. If you have no money, you try to get publicity. And the easiest way to get publicity Downstate is to fear-monger about Mike Madigan.
One way of getting around the state’s new campaign contribution caps law is by forming a lot of different campaign committees. State law forbids people from forming more than one committee (except for independent expenditures, political parties and state legislative leaders), but nothing in the law prevents “friends” and allies from forming their own committees to receive and give money.
For example, House Republican Leader Tom Cross has his own PAC, Citizens to Elect Tom Cross, his allowed “caucus” PAC, the House Republican Leadership Committee, and also appears to control or at least influence four other committees: Illinois Crossroads PAC, Citizens to Change Illinois, the Illinois House Victory Fund and the Move Illinois Forward PAC.
Before we go any further, let me stress that none of this appears to be illegal. The House Republicans don’t deny they’re doing this, with one official saying that they even include these campaign accounts in the presentations they give to large donors.
The point here is not to say that somebody is doing something wrong. It’s to show that if somebody wants to contribute money, they’ll find a way. State law caps the dollar amount that campaign committees can both give and receive, so multiple funds means contributors can give more money and the various funds can then, in turn, give out more cash.
The state’s contribution cap law is just not very good at what it’s supposed to do. In fact, the law makes it more difficult to track donors, because we have to look up so many different angles. I happened to stumble upon these House Republican committees, for example, while casually looking up contributions made by Jack Roeser.
The Illinois Crossroads PAC was formed in January, but reported collecting no contributions until July. It has since received more than $40,000 from Cross’ personal committee, plus two $10,000 contributions from Otto Engineering, a company owned by conservative activist and GOP fundraiser Jack Roeser. Walmart kicked in another $10,000, and energy magnate Gerald Forsythe contributed $5,000. Residual Based Finance Corp. contributed $2,500. The PAC has reported receiving $82,500 so far this cycle, and has contributed $70,000 to the Illinois Republican Party.
Citizens to Change Illinois was formed back in 2007, years before the caps were implemented. Its treasurer is a longtime aide to Cross. The PAC had just $22,000 in the bank at the end of June, but then money started coming in the next month, totaling $67,500, including two $10,000 checks from Roeser’s company, $10K from Walmart, $5k from Gerald Forsythe and $2,500 from Residual Based Finance Corp. $60,000 of the money raised since June 30th has already been contributed, with $35,000 going to the state Republican Party and the rest going to House GOP candidates.
The Illinois House Victory Fund is controlled directly by Cross. It was formed way back in 2004, but it had just a bit over $20,000 in the bank as of June 30th. So far, it’s received the usual two $10,000 checks from Roeser’s Otto Engineering and the $2,500 from Residual Based Finance Corp. All of the contributions it has made so far have gone to a handful of House Republican candidates.
Move Illinois Forward PAC, based in Oswego (which is in Cross’ district), was formed several years ago, but it had only $15K in the bank at the end of June. Since then, Otto has contributed $10K, Forsythe contributed $5K and Residual has contributed $2,500. The PAC has so far contributed $25K to Cross’ House Republican Organization and $15K to targeted House GOP candidates.
Again, there doesn’t seem to be anything untoward about these committees or these contributions, at least not at this point. It’s just money finding a way to its intended target. You may hate it, but the truth is that’s just the way of the political world — and of the money world.
It’s also a pretty good demonstration of how a perhaps well-intended law doesn’t perform as promised.
But most of all, it’s further proof that nobody, not even reformers, ought to be crowned as unquestioned experts in this business.
