Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar » 2012

No big money from the Griffins this fall?

Monday, Oct 1, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* There were lots of rumors earlier this year of bigtime bucks for legislative races coming from people like Ken and Ann Griffin this fall. Maybe not…

The Nov. 6 contests for the White House and Congress are only part of the picture for the new cadre of wealthy financiers who are looking to magnify their impact by focusing on state and local politics. They are not putting much money into state Republicans’ slim chances of reversing Democratic control of the Legislature this year, but insiders expect their influence to grow dramatically with statewide offices, including U.S. senator and governor on the ballot two years from now. […]

Also stepping into a new activist role are mega-donors Kenneth Griffin, who founded the hedge fund firm Citadel LLC, and Anne Dias Griffin, who founded her hedge fund firm, Aragon Global Management. The husband and wife have donated more than $6.1 million to candidates and causes at the state and federal level since 1998. […]

“All these people, they make decisions based on data, on ROI (return on investment), based on performance. That’s how they make money,” the consultant said. “You can’t just call up these folks and say ‘I’m a Republican. I need money.’ What is your plan? How do you get across the finish line. What’s your ROI? What’s your approach?”

And it appears that the investment community will pull back if results aren’t delivered.

“They’re no longer interested in jumping behind (someone) who has tried and failed,” the consultant said. “They want to do it themselves because the (politicians) at the head tables haven’t done it.”

The investment community provided substantial seed money, including $190,000 from the Griffins, to the Two Party System Inc. PAC that in 2010 spent more than $800,000 to back state House GOP candidates and campaigns. But promises of major pickups against Democrats never materialized. Through the first half of this election year, the PAC has made no contributions.

The Griffins have contributed just $30,000 since July.

…Adding… Illinois Review…

Newsweb media mogul Fred J. Eychaner ranks 13 on the nation’s list of top political donors.

In addition to his efforts for President Obama, Eychaner is one of the 2012’s highest national indiviual donors to liberal legislative candidates and political action committees in the 2012 cycle.

In this cycle alone, Eychaner has donated over $3 million to federal Democrat-affilliated Political Action Committees […]

Of the $377,000 he has given thus far to Illinois Democrat candidates and the Democratic Victory Fund and the Senate Democrats, nearly half - $190,000 - went to the abortion advocacy group Personal PAC

17 Comments

Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY: New TV ad

Monday, Oct 1, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

Comments Off

Question of the day

Monday, Oct 1, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* OK, here’s a weird story. A southern Illinois man claims that somebody stole some yard signs from his yard last week. No big deal. Happens all the time.

But then the man alleges that the thieves returned the signs on Friday, replanted them in the ground and then set them on fire. WSIL reports…

Here’s a hint to any aspiring political vandals, or people who want to damage their own stuff and then blame it on the opposition: This state has no statute of limitations for arson. Don’t do it.

* The Question: What’s your favorite political vandalism story?

17 Comments

Supremes refuse to hear GOP remap case

Monday, Oct 1, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* They really never had a decent case. But they did have plenty of taxpayer money to spend on lawsuits, so they appealed all the way to the top…

The U.S. Supreme Court won’t hear a challenge from Illinois Republicans who want a Democratic-drawn legislative map thrown out.

The high court on Monday refused to hear an appeal from Senate Minority Leader Christine Radogno and other Republicans. They say the maps drawn by Democrats were gerrymandered to benefit the party and were unconstitutional. The lower courts have thrown out their complaints.

…Adding… Coincidentally, the Tribune published an editorial yesterday calling the remap “Grand Theft Illinois.” No hyperbole there, though.

20 Comments

Poll: 40 percent of Illinois Catholics favor gay marriage

Monday, Oct 1, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The Paul Simon Public Policy Institute’s crosstabs don’t separate out Catholics into their own category. So, I asked the good folks over there to go back and do so. They did. Here’s the Catholic response on gay marriage/civil unions…

Notice that slightly fewer Catholics favor gay marriage than the state as a whole, but fewer Catholics oppose all legal recognition than the rest of the state.

Discuss.

20 Comments

Zombie lies refuse to die

Monday, Oct 1, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Fox News…

Illinois Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn is getting hit with a nationwide backlash over his suggestion that the federal government bail out the state employees’ pension program.

Critics have in the past several days pounced on the suggestion, made last year when Quinn, in announcing the state’s fiscal 2012 budget, said part of Illinois’ long-term effort to reduce the estimate $167 billion in under-funded liabilities would be to seek “a federal guarantee of the debt.”

A national backlash? Maybe in the conservative echo chamber. As far as I can tell, nobody else cares much, if at all.

* Let’s scroll downward…

The basic plan floated by Quinn would be for the federal government to rescue the pension program through buying the state’s bonds, which critics say are too financially risky to attract investors.

Quinn said after announcing the budget that seeking the federal guarantee was only a precaution, then later called the related wording a “drafting error,” according the non-partisan Citizens Against Government Waste

* OK, we’re gonna take this one point at a time…

* 1…

The basic plan floated by Quinn would be for the federal government to rescue the pension program through buying the state’s bonds

* Former budget director David Vaught did make that suggestion, but not recently. He said this way back in October of 2009…

According to newly installed state Budget Director David Vaught, Gov. Pat Quinn recently brought up the idea with U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and others at the White House. The governor got a good enough reception that “he intends to extend” his efforts, Mr. Vaught said.

A federally guaranteed bond issue could be an enormous help to Illinois in dealing with a huge fiscal 2011 budget hole that Dan Long, executive director of the Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability, the Legislature’s fiscal research arm, now pegs at $11 billion to $12 billion.

Mr. Vaught said a federal guarantee would cut the interest rate on such a bond to “in the 3% to 4% range” from “5% to 6%.” That would make it much more profitable — and less risky — for the state, which would invest the funds in higher-yielding stocks and bonds.

Since any profits could be booked up front, at least in part, the state would be able to avoid making hundreds of millions and perhaps billions in annual contributions to worker pensions that it otherwise would have to come up with in the next few years.

* 2…

state’s bonds, which critics say are too financially risky to attract investors

* Actually, the state’s bond sales have consistently been way over-subscribed. From July…

State receives $14.9 billion in orders for $1.5 billion bond deal

* 3…

Quinn said after announcing the budget that seeking the federal guarantee was only a precaution

* Um, he never said that. Citizens Against Government Waste claimed Quinn said this last month when it awarded the governor its “Porker of the Month” honor…

When queried about it then, the governor claimed that the inclusion of that bailout language was a “precaution.”

Notice how CAGW used quotes around “precaution,” but the word doesn’t appear at all in the 2011 Fox Business story it linked to. Nor is the word or the quote in the video accompanying the story. So, that’s just false.

…Adding… The group should’ve linked to this story…

The governor of Illinois said Friday he is not seeking a federal guarantee of his state’s pension debt, but that he included the proposal in his budget last week “as a precaution” as he struggles to fund pension obligations for public employees.

“That’s not something we’re pushing, really,” Gov. Pat Quinn (D-Ill.) said in an interview with Fox Business, after he and a dozen fellow Democratic governors met with President Obama at the White House to discuss possible moves to boost the economy.

OK, so he did say that. Let’s move on….

* 4…

then later called the related wording a “drafting error,”

* In reality, Quinn’s staff immediately said a staffer made an error when the analysis was written when queried by Fox Business News and others in 2011…

Brie Callahan, spokeswoman for the governor’s office, said Quinn would turn down all offers of federal bailout if the state finds itself out of cash.

“We believe that the states have an obligation to pay their bills and to meet the demands they have put upon themselves,” she said. “We don’t want any federal assistance in terms of bankruptcy.”

* So, what happened between 2009 and 2011? Back in 2009, and then again in 2010 Quinn used borrowing to make the full pension payment. But then he declared that there would be no more bonding for pension payments. Why? Well, the income tax hike gave him the revenues to make those payments. So, there was no pension bond request in his FY 2012 budget proposal in February of 2011. The tax hike revenues will fall short of making those payments in the coming years, which is a big reason why he’s pushing pension reform. Also, the Republicans took control of the US House in November, 2010 election, so by early 2011 there was no way in heck any idea like that would fly.

In other words, when the state was borrowing to make pension payments, Quinn discussed a federal bailout. But he was apparently denied by the President and DC Democrats back in 2009 because nothing ever happened, even with Democratic control of both congressional chambers.

And now, for whatever reason, the echo chamber is dredging these old stories up.

* Back to the Fox News story…

In addition, an editorial Tuesday in the Chicago Tribune argued that saving Illinois will “start a stampede of demands for equal treatment from other financially troubled states” with public pension debts ranging from $1 trillion to $25 trillion.

That was no “editorial.” It was an op-ed by Dennis Byrne. Big difference. [And no offense meant to Dennis, either. Just pointing out that an op-ed ain’t an editorial.]

23 Comments

Here’s something you don’t see every day

Monday, Oct 1, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Bad things happen when you hang out with Lindsay Lohan. That’s not in dispute. But a former John Shimkus staffer partying down with Lindsay Lohan is highly unusual…

A 25-year-old former aide to Illinois Rep. John Shimkus — who was initially arrested on an assault charge after Lindsay Lohan claimed he grabbed her in a New York hotel room in an argument over cellphone images — was freed Sunday and his arrest voided when the charge could not be substantiated, law enforcement officials said.

Instead, Christian LaBella of Valley Village, Calif., and Lohan were filing harassment complaints with police against each other after they were interviewed by police about their run-in, law enforcement officials said.

He worked for John Shimkus? The man who believes that climate change is a fiction because the Book of Genesis says so?

I probably wouldn’t be surprised if, say, a Jan Schakowsky staffer was partying with Lilo. But Shimkus? That’s just odd.

How about, just for fun, we make up some other weird celebrity pairings with the Illinois delegation?

45 Comments

Country clubs and Mediscare

Monday, Oct 1, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The NRCC ad which implies that Cheri Bustos used her influence to connect her street to her country club has been pretty much universally panned in local editorials as blatantly misleading. And now Bustos is running her own ad on the subject. Rate it [Fixed link.]…

[The campaign took down the other version and replaced it with the one above.]

It’s a pretty good response ad. Trouble is, Bustos waited about eleven days to respond. Not a great idea. The other side had plenty of time to burn their own message in.

* Meanwhile, PolitiFact has “awarded” its not-so-coveted “Pants on Fire” rating to a recent NRCC ad against Democrat David Gill on Medicare…

Attacks that say a candidate would “end Medicare” have typically come from Democrats. But this one comes from the Republicans. […]

The proposal Gill was referring to was published on Aug. 30, 2003, in the Journal of the American Medical Association, and it remains on the physician group’s website. Here’s an excerpt, with some key points in bold:

“We envision a national health insurance program that builds upon the strengths of the current Medicare system. Coverage would be extended to all age groups, and expanded to include prescription medications and long term care. Payment mechanisms would be structured to improve efficiency and assure prompt reimbursement, while reducing bureaucracy and cost shifting. Health planning would be enhanced to improve the availability of resources and minimize wasteful duplication. Finally, investor-owned facilities would be phased out.”

So let’s put this in perspective. The NRCC isn’t merely criticizing Gill’s “plan” — one he praised with some limitations eight years ago, a time well before passage of President Barack Obama’s health care bill, which was intended to solve some of the health care policy challenges Gill perceived in 2004. Instead, the NRCC is also saying it’s Gill’s intention to “end Medicare.”

But that’s true only in an Alice in Wonderland sense. The Physicians for National Health Care plan would “end” Medicare only because it would aim to put everyone — not just senior citizens — in a system designed to run, yes, just like Medicare.

The NRCC ad claims, “David Gill: His plan would end Medicare.”

But we find that’s a ridiculous claim that ignores the sweeping nature of what he supported. He actually supported an expansion of a government-run plan so that everyone would have Medicare-like coverage — including seniors.

The NRCC ad completely distorts the plan in an attempt to scare seniors. Pants on Fire!

* I’ve already showed you the NRCC ad, but here it is again…

* And here’s a new NRCC ad whacking Bill Enyart on Obamacare…

Script…

This is what waiting rooms could look like under ObamaCare.

Yet incredibly Bill Enyart supports cutting Medicare by $700 billion to pay for ObamaCare.

Seniors could lose benefits and government bureaucrats will make important Medicare decisions.

Worse, Enyart’s ObamaCare raises taxes on middle class families and small businesses.

That’s a pill we shouldn’t be forced to swallow.

9 Comments

Today’s number: 79 percent

Monday, Oct 1, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Finke writes about the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute poll…

One of those was on the disclosure of financial or conflict-of-interest information by candidates. Most of them got pretty overwhelming support from the respondents, in that they said something was either very important or somewhat important for a candidate to disclose.

The poll asked things like how important is it to know if a candidate has real estate or other investments that may benefit from actions by the government? More than 92 percent think that’s either very important or somewhat important to know.

Interestingly, one of the lower rated items was disclosure of income tax returns. That’s become almost a routine demand of some candidates for office and at times a campaign issue when the returns aren’t released. Yet, only 79 percent thought releasing tax returns was very or somewhat important.

Obviously, a lot of people still think it’s important, but maybe not as much as the hoopla over releasing tax returns might suggest.

Voters don’t agree on much of anything these days. So when 79 percent of voters agree on something, that’s a huge amount.

* It turns out, however, that the issue is lots more important to Democrats and independents than Republicans. From the crosstabs…

Still, 65 percent of Republicans is pretty darned high as well.

5 Comments

*** UPDATED x3 - Gill campaign flatly denies report, insists “Susan” story is real *** Is Gill’s “Susan” a real person?

Monday, Oct 1, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Democratic congressional candidate David Gill has been running this TV ad for a while now…

It’s about a woman named “Susan” that Dr. Gill says he resuscitated after she had a heart attack. Susan had to go home, however, because she didn’t have health insurance.

* But is Susan a real person?…

In a 2006 campaign video produced when Gill was making an unsuccessful bid for Congress in Illinois’ 15th district, he told a similar story about a 39-year-old person who died of a heart attack that may have been prevented had they been covered by health insurance.

But in the 2006 telling — and in another version published on a blog in 2009 — the subject of the story was a man, not a woman named “Susan.”

After a bit of back and forth, the Gill campaign hedged…

In a follow-up statement, Gill campaign spokeswoman Lucy Stein suggested Susan may be an amalgamation of a number of similar experiences Gill has had over the years.

“In his 13 years as an ER doctor caring for thousands of patients, David has seen too many young families devastated by heart attacks. These stories are the tragic but preventable result of a profit-driven health care system,” Stein noted.

*** UPDATE 1 *** The full 2006 Gill campaign video is here. I’ve excerpted the relevant quote…

[ *** End Of Update 1 *** ]

*** UPDATE 3 *** Total denial of the report by Gill’s spokesperson…

I never suggested the amalgamation story… Both are real people, but the point is that there are countless others just like them

She’s right that she was never directly quoted as saying such. And it’s not clear she was even implying it from the story’s quote.

[ *** End Of Update 3 *** ]

* Meanwhile, the US Chamber is using the same person from its pro Bob Dold ad to whack Gill…

From Gill’s Facebook page…

The Chamber of Commerce is up with a generic attack ad pushing all sorts of crazy distortions about me. And the businesswoman they feature in his spot? She’s from Minnesota. Don’t be fooled into thinking this is a local voter.

* Also from Gill’s Facebook page. Posted late last night…

CAMPAIGN UPDATE: We just got new poll numbers in. They confirm that David has an excellent opportunity to win.

Despite a million dollars being spent against him so far, Dr. Gill is in the lead and doing exceptionally well with voters who have seen our advertising.

Yeah. They’ve seen the “Susan” ad, which could now be blown out of the water.

* Also, Gill’s campaign is changing staffers on the fly, which makes it look quite disorganized…

MICHAEL RICHARDS, 33, a member of the Champaign County Board, recently left the campaign. TOM ALTE of Normal remains deputy campaign manager. The campaign’s political director is JACK QUIGLEY of Chicago, a friend of Gill. SHERRY GREENBERG, originally from Los Angeles, is a senior political strategist sent by the DCCC, Alte said. And the new press secretary is LUCY STEIN, who previously worked for a Senate committee in Washington, D.C.

*** UPDATE 2 *** Rodney Davis has a new campaign ad. Rate it…

[ *** End Of Update 2 *** ]

34 Comments

Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition, new cable buys and a campaign video roundup

Monday, Oct 1, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

Comments Off

Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)

Monday, Oct 1, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

Comments Off

« NEWER POSTS