Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar » *** UPDATED x1 *** Another poll shows tight race for second place
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
*** UPDATED x1 *** Another poll shows tight race for second place

Wednesday, Jan 16, 2013

* Democratic 2nd Congressional District hopeful Robin Kelly shared her own poll today

Unlike state Sen. Toi Hutchinson’s poll, Kelly’s pollster only asked about the top seven candidates. Actually, they asked about eight candidates, but then David Miller dropped out and they used voters’ “second choice” responses to reallocate his support elsewhere.

The poll of 500 likely voters was conducted by GBA Strategies January 3-7 with a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percent.

Hutchinson’s poll had Halvorson at 16, Hutchinson at 12 and Kelly at 8. Kelly’s poll has the race for second place much closer. Hutchinson’s attempts to push Kelly out or dismiss her to contributors and influencers as an also-ran probably aren’t gonna work, at least for now.

* From the pollster

• Halvorson begins in the lead, but the race is wide open. Congresswoman Halvorson begins the campaign with 25 percent of the electorate in her corner, but her lead is soft. Senator Hutchinson (16 percent) and Kelly (15 percent) follow, with no other candidate getting more than 10 percent. Fifteen percent are purely undecided, but a full 65 percent of voters are either undecided or only softly supporting a candidate.

• Hutchinson and Halvorson share the same base. Both Debbie Halvorson and Toi Hutchinson start with their base of support coming from the same demographic and regional base, especially white voters and voters in the southern portion of the district.

• Kelly starts with a base of support in the suburbs. Robin Kelly currently leads all other candidates among several key groups, including African American women, African Americans in the suburbs and African Americans with a college degree. And Kelly’s support from these pivotal blocs grows during the survey.

• The NRA is extremely unpopular with this electorate. Just 17 percent of likely voters have a favorable impression of the NRA, with 63 percent saying they feel unfavorably towards the pro-gun organization. Kelly’s record of standing up to the NRA and her pledge to reduce gun violence resonates as one of the most powerful reasons to support her.

• Kelly has significant room to grow. Despite having lower name ID than Halvorson or Hutchinson, Kelly starts the race off statistically tied in second place. Once voters—especially voters in the city—hear more about Kelly and the leading candidates’ positions on preventing gun violence, the vote moves dramatically in her favor, pulling her ahead of both Halvorson and Hutchinson.

• Hutchinson/Halvorson’s growth limited by NRA ties. Both other leading candidates find their growth opportunities severely limited by their proud associations with the NRA and the ISRA. Nearly 7-in-10 voters (69 percent) oppose allowing concealed carry in this race. Voters have very serious concerns about Hutchinson’s and Halvorson’s positions on this critical issue.

There’s no doubt that Kelly believes the gun issue is her best path to victory here. She’s also raised more money than any other candidate so far (although not a huge amount more than Hutchinson is claiming).

Discuss.

*** UPDATE *** Speaking of guns…

Kelly Supports Obama Gun Control Initiatives, Calls Out Opponents
Only major candidate with a record of standing up to the NRA

RICHTON PARK, IL— Today, Robin Kelly, Democratic candidate for the Second Congressional District of Illinois, announced her support for the gun violence prevention proposals that President Obama and Vice-President Joe Biden announced this morning.

“I stand with President Obama’s plan to get the dangerous weapons that are killing our neighbors off of the streets,” Robin Kelly said. “The NRA has engaged in desperate smear campaign to stop him, including attacking President Obama’s daughters. We need more voices in Washington willing to stand up to NRA, instead of taking support from them.

“Unlike my opponents Debbie Halvorson and Toi Hutchinson, who both received support from the NRA, I got an F rating and frankly, I could not be more proud. I have the record and resolve to stand with President Obama, Mayor Emanuel, and Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle to get dangerous weapons out of our neighborhoods.”

Robin Kelly is the only candidate to have issued a five-point pledge to get assault weapons and high capacity magazines off the streets of Chicago and the Southland, as well as making sure that Illinois’ conceal and carry ban stays in effect. You can read her full pledge at RobinKellyPledge.com.

Robin Kelly is a former state representative, Chief of Staff to the Illinois State Treasurer and Chief Administrative Officer for Cook County under Toni Preckwinkle. But, most importantly, she’s a mother and a community activist who has dedicated her career to fighting for economic opportunity, domestic violence prevention and reasonable common sense gun control laws.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

13 Comments
  1. - VanillaMan - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 9:56 am:

    Remarkable!
    So Toi’s poll shows her as a winning candidate, and today Kelly’s shows her as a winner!

    Wow!

    But both agree that Former Congresswoman Halvorson in the lead.

    And that is the takeaway…


  2. - The Captain - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 10:05 am:

    A month ago I would have rather been Harris than anyone else in this race but he gave away his natural advantage, now I’d rather be Robin Kelly. She’s a PhD, has the top ballot spot, raised the most money, has the best record on the gun issue at the forefront of voters minds (other than the economy where there isn’t much difference to separate the candidates) and the opponents ahead of her appear to be bumping up against a ceiling. She’s in the catbird seat.

    The only downside for her is that normally you would expect Halvorson and Hutchinson to beat each other up since they’re competing for the same voters but since they both have the same record on guns they’re not going to do the dirty work for Kelly on that issue, she’ll have to spend the money to do that herself. But she has the money and you can do that with a comparative ad (as opposed to straight negative) and get the job done.

    Things are setting up well for her.


  3. - Six Degrees of Separation - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 10:09 am:

    Those 17% of NRA favorables (especially if they are strongly opinionated) could cut the other way in a race with this many candidates, too - just sayin’.


  4. - The Captain - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 10:14 am:

    Except that the two candidates with the best (almost identical) NRA record (Halvorson and Hutchinson) are both viable so no one candidate is going to take the 17% of the NRA vote as a monolithic bloc.


  5. - GA Watcher - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 10:47 am:

    It’s somewhat refreshing that the three top contenders in this race are women.


  6. - Carl Nyberg - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 10:49 am:

    I’m kinda surprised to see Halvorson poll so well.

    I voted for Halvorson in the primary based on listening to JJJ at IVI-IPO and talking to a member of Jackson’s staff.

    The stuff Jackson said was obviously untrue to anyone who has ridden Metra Electric. And Jackson’s staff member’s defense of Jackson made me more confident something was not right.

    But I’m not a lock for Halvorson in this race.

    I assume that many of the votes for Halvorson are like me: people who thought the bloom was off the rose with JJJ, but only had weak (or no) loyalties to Halvorson.

    This poll suggests Halvorson brings almost all her primary voters to this election as her base or that JJJ voters have flipped to Halvorson.

    Any JJJ voters that flipped to Halvorson seem likely to be soft enough that when they get more information they might flip again.

    Also, I have a hard time believing that only 15% are undecided. The poll that said 40% undecided feels closer to the truth.


  7. - Knifefighter - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 10:53 am:

    VanillaMan–

    You’re right that obviously Halvorson is running away with this thing, but I wouldn’t say the Kelly poll shows her as the winning candidate. Like the other poll, it shows her in third. Unlike the other poll story, it doesn’t actually provide numbers about where opinion goes. Smells like a rat to me.


  8. - Carl Nyberg - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 11:10 am:

    Age at time of election:

    Joyce Washington–60-64
    Mel Reynolds–61
    Robin Kelly–almost 57
    Debbie Halvorson–55
    Anthony Beale–45
    Toi Hutchinson–almost 40
    Napoleon Harris–34

    Remember, it takes six to ten years to build the relations and seniority to get stuff done, although Halvorson would start with an advantage.


  9. - HawkWatcher - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 11:19 am:

    What kind of bs methodology is this? they poll david miller, but don’t show what the vote is with him in the field? How did they “re-allocate” his vote total? The other two polls conducted show Robin in single digits. And if Robin was ever not in third place during the course of the poll, wouldn’t they have shared that information? Conclusion: robin has no path to victory.


  10. - walkinfool - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 11:20 am:

    Kelly has demonstrated that she’s in position to take second place. Being highly-connected, and touting a PhD, can lose as many votes as it gains.

    I think Toi has a good chance. Debbie has already hit her high point — it just depends on how much time is left for Toi to catch up.


  11. - Boone Logan Square - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 2:58 pm:

    Interesting that Kelly’s name recognition is lower even though she won the Democratic primary for treasurer in 2010.

    I still think that ground game could swing this race and won’t be surprised by the winner. (Unless the winner is Mel Reynolds.)


  12. - Lincoln Lad - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 8:01 pm:

    Nonviable candidates should drop out. Halvorsen slips to 3rd in a 3 candidate race…


  13. - One to the Dome - Thursday, Jan 17, 13 @ 12:33 pm:

    What’s the lead in all demographics? Also, is the district made up of that same demographics? I sort of doubt it.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Question of the day
* Russians revived the Chicago Daily News before Twitter shut it down
* Harith Augustus coverage roundup
* Transitions: Baise, Denzler, Demmer, DeWitte, Mazzochi
* Caption contest!
* *** LIVE *** Campaign finance reports
* Rauner denies tacking to the right with Pence praise
* Rauner signs Firearms Restraining Order Act, 72-hour gun purchase waiting period, will veto gun shop regulation bill
* John McGovern: "An honorable man in politics"
* *** UPDATED x1 - Rauner to veto *** Raoul to Rauner: "Get us out of Crosscheck"
* Unclear on the concept
* Mitchell is "a foot in the door for the next generation"
* *** LIVE COVERAGE ***
* Yesterday's stories

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............
<


Loading


* Illinois governor signs two bills to tighten gu.....
* Rauner steps back from Trump praise, but Pritzk.....
* Gov. Rauner intends to veto gun store regulatio.....
* Governor Rauner talks funding for school resour.....
* Rauner signs bill to ease physician assistant h.....
* Gov. Rauner visits Dixon police officer Mark Da.....
* Rauner signs 2 bills to tighten gun restrictions..
* Rauner Honors Dixon Resource Officer..
* Rauner signs pair of gun bills..
* New Law Keeps Guns Away from Those Deemed '.....


* Chicago activist demands all footage from police shooting
* SIU trustees vote for ending Randy Dunn’s presidency
* 2 CVS workers lose jobs after cops called on black customer
* Illinois pastor unpaid for FBI, police tips made 2 years ago
* Illinois governor signs 2 bills to tighten gun restrictions
* The Latest: Spokesman says officers can conduct pat downs.
* Correction: CVS-Black Customer story
* Rauner signs gun order of protection, waiting period laws
* Groups getting $11.5 million for children’s mental health
* Authorities: 2-year-old child dies after Illinois house fire

* Gov. Rauner signs two gun control bills, says he'll veto another
* Rauner signs bill to ease physician assistant hiring
* Londrigan outraises Davis in 2nd quarter; Davis has more in fund
* Rauner doesn't want Illinois pulled from multistate voter registration system
* Gov. Rauner signs two gun control bills
* Londrigan outraises Davis in 3rd quarter; Davis has more in fund
* Durbin not confident Illinois election systems are secure
* Jeff Keicher to finish Bob Pritchard's term in Illinois House
* New Illinois program to offer retirement savings plan
* Illinois Governor's Mansion reopens to public

* Ana Dutra resigns as CEO of Executives' Club of Chicago
* University chiefs take a hit from tax bill
* Big Pharma's metabolism is slowing down
* FCC rejects Sinclair plan for TV station sales in Tribune deal


* Pritzker spending $207,000 a day on gov race, swamping Rauner’s $83,000
* San Francisco to consider tax on companies to help homeless
* Netflix sees slow subscriber growth
* Cubs’ Kyle Schwarber falls to Nats’ Bryce Harper in Home Run Derby final
* Protesters march for a third day over police shooting in South Shore
* These Illinois House Republicans hold huge fundraising leads over Dem rivals
* Bears QB Mitch Trubisky: offense ‘more complex, easier to execute’ than in 2017
* Do Cubs — with talent everywhere — need ‘Bryzzo’ to lead them in second half?
* Man shot while walking in Englewood
* Rauner steps back from Trump praise, but Pritzker pounces


* Cubs' Kyle Schwarber falls to Bryce Harper in Home Run Derby final; Javier Baez eliminated in first round
* Man and woman hit by stray bullets less than block from scene of police shooting
* Lava crashes through roof of Hawaii tour boat, injuring 23
* Trump hands Putin a diplomatic triumph by casting doubt on U.S. intelligence agencies
* Bashed for taking $2,750 from for-profit immigrant detention company, Chicago alderman says he's donating $5K to pro-immigrant group
* 4th Wheaton College football player enters guilty plea in hazing case
* Oprah Winfrey among 9 large-scale donors to give money to Obama Foundation
* 'This is the type of offense I should be in' Mitch Trubisky talks Matt Nagy, new Bears scheme and striving for success in preseason Q&A
* ESPN to feature former Bulls star Jimmy Butler granting the wish of ailing Wisconsin teen
* Emanuel's mayoral challengers question, defend weekend fatal police shooting


» CHA Seniors File Complaint Over Missing Grab Bars
» Cook County Commissioners Confounded By Hiring Of Health System Consultant
» Third Party Candidates for Governor; Student Loans & Retirement Saving; New Illinois Made Makers
» CPD Officer Shoots And Kills Man In South Shore
» Durbin Says He Hasn't Taken Position on SCOTUS Pick — Also Has Doubts About Election Security
» Look Inside The Renovated Governor's Mansion
» Angry Crowd Protests After Chicago Police Fatally Shoot Man
» Chicago Police: Man Killed By Police Appeared To Be Armed
» State Week: SCOTUS Nominee, Dan Ryan Protest, Misleading Ads


* EJ Dionne: Will the blue wave start in Jersey?
* Their View: 'Everybody needed to know what happened to Emmett Till'
* Gov. Rauner signs two gun control bills, says he'll veto another
* Rauner signs bill to ease physician assistant hiring
* Londrigan outraises Davis in 2nd quarter; Davis has more in fund
* Rauner doesn't want Illinois pulled from multistate voter registration system
* Gov. Rauner signs two gun control bills
* Londrigan outraises Davis in 3rd quarter; Davis has more in fund
* Durbin not confident Illinois election systems are secure
* Jeff Keicher to finish Bob Pritchard's term in Illinois House


* SIU president’s departure won’t end universities’ problems, SIUE speakers tell trustees
* Boulton intends to stay in Iowa Senate despite allegations
* Johnston City park to be named after Michael Dean, who died in 2006 crash
* East St. Louis woman charged with using cord to choke, beat 9-year-old
* Troy couple injured in three-vehicle crash
* Two charged with burglarizing rural home; one escapes from custody
* Sleepy driver cited in crash on I-64, police say
* Boil order issued in Murphysboro
* Get ready Decatur: America In Bloom judges arrive Wednesday
* Five at 5: Rauner signs pair of gun control measures and 4 other stories to see


* The Latest: Harper, Schwarber advance to HR Derby finals
* Families build cardboard forts at Wauconda library
* The next senior World Cup is in France, not Qatar
* Harper's future is shadow hanging over DC's All-Star moment
* AP editor Sue Manning dies; gave world LA's biggest stories

* Illinois Dems Blast Trump On Twitter After...
* Seeking clarity on racial disparities, Dem...
* These Illinois House Republicans hold huge...
* Thousands try to catch 'em all at '...
* Illinois lawmakers pile on Trump/Putin sum...
* Illinois Dems Blast Trump On Twitter After...
* Donald Trump's Unhinging of Republican...
* Illinois lawmakers pile on Trump/Putin sum...
* Trump-Putin Press Conference Slammed By Lo...
* Illinois Dems Blast Trump On Twitter After...

* Area lawmakers condemn Trump comments of R......
* Local politicians react to Trump, Putin su......
* Guest column: Senators show bias against r......
* Rep. Brad Schneider Slams Trump Press Conf......
* 2 Democratic senators, 3 House Republicans......

* Local politicians react to Trump, Putin su......
* Trump's Own Team: He 'Looked Incre......
* QC lawmakers have different responses to T......
* Illinois lawmakers pile on Trump/Putin sum......
* Tammy Duckworth says Putin has turn......

* SportsMondayWednesday: On The Road To The All-Star Game
* The Weekend In Chicago Rock
* Capitol Fax: Harith Augustus coverage roundup
* The Lost Children Of Chon Thanh
* The Week In Chicago Rock
* Strip Mall Preservation
* More high school grads than ever are going to college, but 1 in 5 will quit
* Online learning is helping Louisiana inmates stay out of prison
* EdX Engineers Are Building a Transferrable Student Records Tool
* Lies, Damned Lies and Rankings


* Gov. Rauner meets one of oldest living WWII veterans
* IDOT reopening lanes where possible for July 4 travel
* Bellock named DHFS director
* Follow-Up Samples from the Illinois River Show No Microcystins
* Illinois Department of Public Health Heat Safety Tips

  
* 2018 Samsung Galaxy Grand Prime Plus may come with an iris scanner
* ​Bank of Queensland targets small business with Square partnership
* Verizon is starting to phase out 3G handsets - will no longer activate them
* NBN: There were more faults on fibre than satellite at launch
* Jeff Bezos plans to charge upwards of $300,000 for a ticket to space
* Samsung’s Galaxy S10 might come in three sizes, with an in-display fingerprint sensor
* Hong Kong's first bike-sharing startup to end services this week

* Super Stats Pack: Team Stats
* Live round-by-round HR Derby results
* Abreu back on All-Star stage with veteran poise
* White Sox' Jose Abreu hopes to stay beyond 2019 — and wi...
* They said it: Chicago White Sox in the first half
* Dingerthread: 2018 MLB Home Run Derby
* Dingerthread: 2018 MLB Home Run Derby


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
July 2018
June 2018
May 2018
April 2018
March 2018
February 2018
January 2018
December 2017
November 2017
October 2017
September 2017
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress




Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller