* Illinois Review…
A new We Ask America poll shows U.S. Senator Richard “Dick” Durbin could be vulnerable in his 2014 re-election bid, and Illinois State Senator Jim Oberweis may be the GOP’s strongest challenger.
In a head-to-head, the poll shows Durbin at 49.97% and Oberweis at 38.67%, with 11.36% undecided.
Breaking down the data, Oberweis polls stronger among men at 47.13% to Durbin’s 45.16%. He also polls stronger among voters 25-44 years old, and beats Durbin in the vote-rich collar counties as well as downstate.
Oberweis told Illinois Review he was surprised by the poll and the results. He said he’s considering a run, but has made no decision.
I’m told that We Ask America didn’t do the poll directly for Oberweis, but he’s still touting it, as he should.
Considering some other numbers I’ve seen lately, the president’s popularity appears to be sagging in Illinois right now. That’s creating some headwinds.
* And just keep in mind that an incumbent at 50 percent this far out is gonna be really hard to beat, particularly one who has a lot of money to spend on himself.
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Rutherford rhetoric may be music to union ears
Tuesday, Sep 24, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* I don’t think he answered the questions, but I’d bet money that his kinda-sorta non-answer will please some public employees…
When asked by members of the audience about his approach to fixing the looming pension crisis facing the state, [Treasurer Dan Rutherford] voiced his disdain for the inaction of others. He contends that even though Quinn raised income taxes in January 2011, he hasn’t used the added revenue toward pension funds.
“I don’t want it (continued income tax increases), but it may have to be on the table in part of a financial solution to the situation we are in,” admitted Rutherford. “I know that’s not a popular thing to say, but it is a realistic thing to say.”
Rutherford is against changing the state constitution to take away any pension funding, saying “pensions to teachers, university employees and state employees is a covenant. They deserve what they have coming.
“Everybody now has skin in the game, and we are all going to have to take a little of the hurt,” he added.
Rutherford attributed the pension problem to past governors who didn’t put enough aside for the pension fund, inflated portfolio rates set by the Retired Teachers Board, and people living longer.
“The pension system had to start selling its assets to make payments for retires,” said Rutherford. “That is a death spiral. We have to fairly and substantively address this.”
I’d sure like to hear how he intends to do all that. For now, though, he looks to have the best shot at convincing those Downstate and suburban public employee union members who also happen to be Republicans or lean that way (and there are lots of them) to get on board. But it’s early and we don’t really know what he’s talking about here other than his rhetoric is much softer than his opponents’.
* Meanwhile, Greg Hinz…
GOP gubernatorial hopeful Bruce Rauner quietly has moved his legal voting residence back to the suburbs from Chicago — a move that may help him politically but risks rekindling a flap about why he came to the city in the first place.
According to Cook County Clerk David Orr’s office, Mr. Rauner changed his voting residence April 30 from a downtown Chicago high-rise condominium at 340 E. Randolph St. to his former official residence: a home on Rosewood Avenue in Winnetka.
Mr. Rauner’s spokesman confirms the candidate did indeed go back to the ‘burbs.
“He just wanted to make everything consistent,” said the spokesman, Mike Schrimpf.
* In other news…
Today, we got notice that state Rep. JoAnn Osmond, an Antioch Republican who isn’t running for re-election in 2014, said she’s backing state Sen. Kirk Dillard of Hinsdale for governor.
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Question of the day
Tuesday, Sep 24, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The Kankakee Daily Journal’s Phil Angelo interviewed Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Rauner…
The Illinois budget: Would make cuts by inviting 30 senior business executives to examine state practices. “It is time to downsize and outsource.”
* The Question: Do you think senior business executives would have enough expertise to find significant state budget cuts? Take the poll and then explain your answer in comments, please.
survey hosting
Also, sorry for the typo. Can’t get the poll to update my fix. Ugh.
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In June, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the so-called Defense of Marriage Act, giving legally married same-sex couples access to more than 1,000 federal protections. But that won’t help same-sex couples in Illinois, who still occupy a second-class legal status that denies them access to these protections.
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Let’s all try to remain calm
Tuesday, Sep 24, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Buried deep in the Decatur Herald & Review’s story about ADM moving some top corporate jobs out of town was this nugget…
Shareholder Martin Glotzer of Chicago, who was openly booed when he asked [ADM Chairman, President and CEO Patricia Woertz] last year about moving ADM’s headquarters, said he knew it would not be a popular question in Decatur. However, he thinks in the long run, ADM and Decatur would benefit from being able to attract higher-quality career people who would rather live and work in Chicago than Decatur.
If the company is better off, Glotzer said it could grow and hire more people. [Emphasis added.]
That shareholder is probably right.
I totally sympathize with Decatur residents who fear what this move means for their beleaguered town. But the company’s CEO has talked for years about a possible HQ move, and if they’re going to move I hope it’s to Chicago.
* So what we have to guard against in the coming months is an intensifying regional battle over this ADM move. We can’t have angry Downstate politicians blocking state assistance solely out of spite. Yes, there should be a robust debate if the company wants any state help, but let’s keep it honest and open. The idea should be to keep ADM’s international headquarters in Illinois if the price is right.
* And, while I’m at it, I’m really getting sick (already, and it’s still early) of the Chicago bashing coming from the GOP gubernatorial candidates. Yes, we have our regional differences, but this is one state, people. Try to remember that.
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* From a Mayor Rahm Emanuel press release…
“The men and women of the Chicago Police Department once again showed why they are the nation’s best by moving quickly to arrest four individuals, including the shooters, for their roles in the gun violence in the Back of the Yards neighborhood last week. But great police work is only part of a successful strategy to keep our streets safe. We also need laws that reflect our values when it comes to gun crimes and carry real consequences for illegal gun possession.
“We need a three-year minimum penalty for illegally carrying a gun on our streets. One of the shooters should have been behind bars rather than in Cornell Park on Thursday night.
“As we invest heavily in programs for youth, in new policing strategies, and in building supports for those most likely to fall into gangs, we also need a three-year mandatory minimum bill for gun crimes.” [Emphasis added.]
* This is the guy MRE was referring to…
On Monday, Bryon Champ, 21, and Kewane Gatewood, 20, both of Chicago, were also charged with attempted murder and aggravated battery with a firearm. Chicago police said the two “played significant roles” in the shooting.
A law enforcement source said Champ and Gatewood helped transport the weapon used in the shooting to the scene. Another source said the shooting was in retaliation after one of the suspects had been grazed earlier in a gang conflict in Back of the Yards.
Police identified Champ as a convicted felon and a documented street gang member. He was convicted of unlawful use of a weapon by a felon in July 2012 and was sentenced to boot camp at the Cook County Department of Corrections. [Emphasis added.]
* According to the cops, Bryon Champ was injured last week in a shooting, so the Back of the Yards shooting was retaliatory…
McCarthy said motivation behind the Back of the Yards shooting was retaliation, stemming from an unreported shooting the week before in which Champ was injured.
“As a result, the retaliation took place at Cornell Park,” he said. [Emphasis added.]
* More on Bryon Champ…
Champ’s criminal record includes a 2012 conviction for aggravated unlawful use of a weapon and a 2011 conviction for receiving stolen property. He was sentenced to Cook County Jail boot camp for the gun-possession conviction and had received probation in the other case, records show.
On Monday, McCarthy pointed to the case to highlight the need for stricter gun laws.
“He received boot camp for that gun crime and was back out on the streets to be a part of this senseless shooting,” McCarthy said. “That is unacceptable. To truly address violence for the long-term we need state and federal laws that keep illegal guns out of our communities and provide real punishment for the criminals who use them.”
McCarthy continued to hammer the point at a news conference Tuesday, pressing the need for punishment for criminals who carry illegal guns: “If Bryon Champ is not on the street — as he shouldn’t have been — this incident likely does not occur.”
* So far, all Gov. Pat Quinn has done is talk about banning assault weapons and high capacity magazines. But maybe the governor ought to listen to Superintendent McCarthy and focus on keeping these criminals behind bars longer.
Champ gets boot camp for felony gun possession while he’s apparently on probation for another felony? What the heck?
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It’s a swing district
Tuesday, Sep 24, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Rodney Davis launched his congressional reelection bid yesterday. Sen. Dick Durbin blasted Davis on Sunday…
“He just continues to follow the tea party line in Washington,” Durbin said before a Democratic State Central Committee meeting in Springfield. “That may be good news in his Republican primary, but this is a pretty evenly divided district. Come the general election, he’ll have some questions to answer.
Actually, the 13th District has swung wildly between Democratic and Republican, depending on the year. Obama stomped John McCain 55-42. But Judy Baar Topinka beat Rod Blagojevich 48-37 in the 2006 off-year, and Bill Brady beat Pat Quinn in the next off-year election 54-37. On average, I suppose, it’s “evenly divided,” but in reality, it swings with the national winds.
One reason for this swing is the large number of college students in the district. It includes the U of I, ISU and tons of other schools.
* The wild swings back and forth are a big reason why Rep. Jay Hoffman and other bigtime Democrats decided to take a pass last year. They thought they could win last year, but figured they would have real trouble being reelected in Obama’s final off-year election.
That’s why both Charlie Cook and Larry Sabato have this race as “Lean Republican.” The only reason so far why it isn’t rated as “Likely Republican” is because the Democrats plan to spend lots of cash there. But I’m not sure they can pull this off.
…Adding… Some folks seem unclear on the concept here. Those election results are based on the new district lines, not the old ones. So, yeah, Davis had a tough race last year, but if the pattern holds, it won’t be nearly as tough next year.
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Quinn never said it
Tuesday, Sep 24, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From a Saturday AP report…
Gov. Pat Quinn said he’s open to sending Illinois National Guard troops or Illinois State Police to assist Chicago police with curbing violence if city officials want the help.
He told reporters Saturday after an unrelated event in Chicago that state police have helped in places like East St. Louis, but only when local authorities coordinate things.
Quinn said he hasn’t been approached by Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel yet.
* However, Quinn never actually talked about sending in the Guard. He was asked by a reporter “Governor, have you had any conversations regarding the National Guard [and] the State Police supplementing Chicago?”
His response didn’t include anything about sending in the Guard. He talked about how he’d sent the state cops to East St. Louis and about working with local law enforcement. He was then asked a question about whether he’d talked to Mayor Rahm Emanuel about supplementing police on the streets, but the phrase “National Guard” wasn’t included in that question.
Listen for yourself…
* His spokesperson made that clear to CBS2 right away…
Quinn did not specifically veto the idea of deploying Guard members in Chicago. A press aide later told CBS 2 the governor was speaking only about the possibility of using state police to help out.
* But because of that shoddy AP report, Chicago Police Supt. Garry McCarthy went through the roof…
Speaking at a graduation ceremony for the latest group of police recruits at Navy Pier, McCarthy told reporters his department does not need the help from outside agencies, pointing to statistics showing a drop in overall crime, including murders.
“I say, ‘No way, no how,’” McCarthy said. “It’s not an issue of resources.”
McCarthy instead reiterated his call for a three-year minimum prison sentence for those caught possessing illegal guns, saying that changing the law, and not sending in state police, is “the contribution that Springfield can make to the city of Chicago.”
“If people don’t go to jail for possession of a firearm, they don’t learn not to carry a firearm. Carrying a firearm is the gateway crime to committing a murder,” McCarthy said. “We’ve got more than 130 examples so far this year … of individuals who would’ve been incarcerated if that law was in effect.”
“We’re doing good policing, we’re doing smarter policing, we’re getting better cooperation from the community. But without adequate penalties for gun violence, we’re churning them out and they’re doing it again,” he said. “They’re not learning not to do, they’re learning that there’s no sanction. Therefore they continue to do it.”
McCarthy said no amount of outside influence would sway him on bringing in officers from outside his department, even if “the rest of the country” thinks it’s a good idea, as one reporter suggested.
“The rest of the country is not Chicago Police Department … The fact is the National Guard is not a policing force, they’re a military force,” said McCarthy. “So let’s stop the hysteria and let’s talk about practical steps to move forward.”
The Chicago media really needs to take a breath. “The rest of the country”? Please.
* And today, the AP backtracked…
A spokeswoman says Gov. Pat Quinn would be open to using Illinois State Police but not the Illinois National Guard if it comes to assisting Chicago police combat city violence.
Over the weekend Quinn was asked by reporters about the potential for deploying the Guard or state police to assist local authorities. The Chicago Democrat said state police help in East St. Louis, but that any state help would have to be through coordinated partnerships.
Spokeswoman Brooke Anderson said Monday that when it comes to Chicago’s violence, state help would not include National Guard troops. The governor is only allowed to deploy the Guard in specific situations like a terrorist threat.
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* 1:40 pm - ADM is announcing that 100 top executives will be moved out of the company’s longtime Decatur home. Word from inside is that the company is considering moving those top jobs to Chicago.
* From a press release…
Archer Daniels Midland Company (NYSE: ADM) announced today that it is exploring establishing a new global headquarters and customer center.
“Our company is growing and becoming more global and more customer-centric,” said Patricia Woertz, ADM chairman and chief executive officer. “To continue to succeed, we need a global center in a location that allows us to travel and work efficiently with customers and employees throughout the world. We also need an environment where we can attract and retain employees with diverse skills, and where family members can find ample career opportunities.”
The company is considering locations and having discussions with various public officials and advisors. It does not expect to discuss those details publicly.
It expects to locate a small, corporate team at the global center, with approximately 100 jobs relocated to the center. In addition, the company plans to create a new IT tech center at the same location, adding approximately 100 new positions there over the next few years.
The company does not plan any layoffs in connection with the move to a new global center.
“As we look to establish the new global center, we remain firmly committed to the 4,400 colleagues who will continue to work in Decatur, and to the economic strength and viability of the Decatur community,” Woertz said.
In recognition of the breadth and importance of the work that will continue to be centered in Decatur, the company’s office there will be designated the North American headquarters. ADM also maintains regional headquarters in Rolle, Switzerland; São Paulo, Brazil; and Shanghai, China.
“To ensure that Decatur remains a strong and vibrant community for years to come, we are also announcing today several multi-year financial commitments. We are investing in Decatur’s economic development to help ensure it flourishes economically, in its schools to foster a strong workforce pipeline, and in critical social services to enhance the quality of community life.”
Among the specific commitments the company is making is $250,000 a year for three years to fund an enhanced public-private partnership and unified marketing campaign for the Economic Development Corporation of Decatur & Macon County, including the funding of a mayoral economic development fellow; and $500,000 a year for five years to Decatur Public School District 61. In addition, the company will maintain its other Decatur and Macon County community support at $1 million a year for at least 10 years.
“This is an exciting time for our company. We are preparing for a large North American harvest and the completion of our acquisition of GrainCorp,” Woertz said. “We look ahead to a strong 2014, as we position our company for continued success.”
ADM is also seeking “assistance from the State of Illinois through the Economic Development for a Growing Economy (EDGE) Tax Credit and other credits against other state taxes to help facilitate the relocation and creation of additional Illinois jobs.”
So, we may be in for a bidding war.
I doubt that Rep. Bill Mitchell will be all that pleased. You will recall that Mitchell (R-Forsyth) is a Decatur-area legislator who has demanded that Chicago secede from Illinois.
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Question of the day
Monday, Sep 23, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* If you had to guess, do you think Gov. Pat Quinn will prevail over whoever the Republicans nominate next year?
Take the poll and then explain your answer in comments, please.
surveys
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An inevitable backlash
Monday, Sep 23, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* A group of social conservative leaders sent Republican state legislators a warning today about state Rep. Ron Sandack. From the letter…
The letter continues…
Although we know it is usually the custom of House members to support colleagues engaged in primary fights, we ask you to take a pass on Ron Sandack. He has disgraced your Caucus and himself by his untruthful behavior.
It was signed by the leaders of Family PAC (Paul Caprio), Eagle Forum of Illinois (Penny Pullen), Illinois Family Action (David E. Smith) and Illinois Family Network (Ralph Rivera).
Going up against Sandack for flip-flopping on them appears reasonable to me.
Don’t get me wrong, I like Sandack. He took a courageous stand on this issue. But he knew what he was getting into when he changed positions.
* And, meanwhile, passing a gay marriage bill would obviously have some benefits for the wedding industry, but I’m not sure it’s enough to make the case for approving gay marriage…
Majority Leader Barbara Flynn Currie sent a letter to all House members earlier this month saying it’s time to approve legislation legalizing same-sex marriage. The letter follows a push in early September by Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak to lure Illinois’ gay couples to wed in Minnesota, which legalized same-sex marriage earlier this year. […]
“Illinois has been missing out on this economic opportunity long before Minneapolis’ mayor unleashed his advertising campaign in our state,” Currie wrote in the letter released Saturday.
Currie said the wedding industry is big business and Illinois is losing millions to states like Minnesota that allow same-sex marriage.
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The Tribune looks back
Monday, Sep 23, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* We’ve discussed this several times before, but it’s still good to see the Tribune take a look at the history of how Constitutional Convention delegates devised the pension benefits protection clause…
“If a police officer accepted employment under a provision where he was entitled to retire at two-thirds of his salary after 20 years of service, that could not subsequently be changed to say he was entitled to only one-third of his salary after 30 years of service, or perhaps entitled to nothing,” said Helen Kinney, of Hinsdale, a Republican delegate to the convention drafting the new charter and one of four lead sponsors of the pension clause.
The debate was whether to define pension benefits as “an enforceable contractual relationship” that “shall not be diminished or impaired.” After hours, the convention voted 57-36 in favor of adding the language to the broader constitutional draft.
Why they did it…
Believe it or not, the state’s key pension funds were in almost as bad financial shape back then as they are now, and for the same reason: a chronic failure by lawmakers to pay enough money into the funds to cover projected pensions costs and keep them financially sound.
Go read the whole thing.
* Zorn’s take…
I’ve earlier made the point that this vital article underscores, which is that those crafting the constitution ere not making airy, gauzy feel-good promises, but attempting to prevent future lawmakers from succumbing to the inevitable, powerful temptation to balance the state’s books by reneging on promises they’d already made in their labor agreements.
The idea some are floating that we must now go back on these promises because the state’s in a real financial bind miss the point that we’re in exactly the sort of pickle that the framers envisioned.
* And despite what someone is quoted as saying in the Trib’s story, it wasn’t just the Con-Con debate that can be relied on here. The explanation of that passage to voters who approved the new Constitution was also crucial…
The Convention stated in its official text and explanation of the proposed Constitution that under the Pension Clause “provisions of state and local governmental pension and retirement systems shall not have their benefits reduced.” And, “membership in such systems shall be a valid contractual relationship.”
The Convention’s official explanation also stated that the Clause was a new section “and self-explanatory.” The Convention’s official text and explanation was mailed to each registered voter in Illinois and published in newspapers throughout the State prior to the special referendum election held in December 1970 to approve the proposed Constitution
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Highly doubtful
Monday, Sep 23, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Greg Hinz…
The question is whether any of the four GOP candidates for governor has the guts to make a serious play for them—not just in the November 2014 general election but in the March Republican primary.
If Mr. Quinn is the standard-bearer of the Democrats’ liberal and minority base, Mr. Daley is a card- carrying member of its more centrist, pro-business wing—hundreds of thousands, or maybe millions, of voters who consider Republicans cavemen on social issues but fear that Mr. Quinn either can’t or won’t keep what’s left of our economy from melting away.
Those voters now are up for grabs, be they soft Democrats or true independents. And if a Republican is going to win the governor’s mansion in this solidly blue state, he has to bring them over.
I spent much of the week talking to GOP insiders about whether any of the four is willing to roll the dice in hopes of luring, say, an extra 100,000 or so soft Democrats/independents into a GOP primary that likely will pull only 750,000 or so voters. Almost all of them say their advice would be not to risk straying from the party’s mantra: No new taxes, curbs on union powers and pensions, no gay marriage, gun rights and as many limits as possible on abortion.
“People are looking for a strong leader, someone with a message they’re willing to articulate,” Wheaton-based strategist Dan Curry says. “I think someone with a strong conservative message can win in the general election.”
* The much-vaunted, Rush Limbaugh-inspired Republican crossover vote in Texas and Ohio didn’t do nearly as well as some people believed at the time.
But Michigan’s 2000 presidential primary is often pointed to by people who think that enough Democrats can successfully be lured into voting for Republicans. John McCain got a lot of Democratic votes that year against George W. Bush. Democrats comprised about 17 percent of the total GOP primary vote that year and 14 percent of the total went to McCain.
But Michigan’s governor at the time, refused to use that pursuit of Democrats against McCain…
In a brief interview, Mr. Engler said he regretted not advising Mr. Bush to advertise here that Senator John McCain was appealing to Democrats for support. ‘’We could have gone right at the fact that Senator McCain was making such an explicit pitch, reaching over to the most partisan Democrats, and therefore the least likely ever to become Republicans,'’ he said. ‘’You could have gone to the Republicans in the Republican areas of the state and sort of exposed that directly.'’
If a Republican candidate here tried to do the same thing, it would definitely be used against that person with hardcore GOP primary voters and it could cost that candidate dearly. It would be definitive proof that the candidate is a RINO.
And, as Hinz pointed out, nobody appears willing to take that step here - not yet, anyway, and most certainly not openly.
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Dillard explains, backtracks and hedges
Monday, Sep 23, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Bernie wrote about a conservative survey that Sen. Kirk Dillard filled out in 2011…
One of the questions, as pointed out recently in the Capitol Fax blog, that got an “x” in the “support” box from Dillard was, “Do you support/oppose the repeal of the civil unions law?”
Dillard also wrote in that “It is a litigious nightmare!!”
“Senator Dillard has not changed his position on any of the issues,” said campaign spokesman WES BLEED. “On the question of civil unions, he was responding to a (yes-no) question. He is against the current legislation and would want to replace it with a law that would protect religious liberties.”
The backtrack…
“I think if we’re going to have civil unions in Illinois, we should have an amendment to the current civil union statute that allows religious institutions to get back in the foster care and adoption business,” Dillard told reporters. Asked if the civil union law should be repealed without such a change, Dillard said, “We’ll see,” which Bleed said later was a reference to seeing what happens with attempts to change the law.
* He also hedged a bit on his support for repealing the Motor Voter law…
“I have always been concerned about potential vote fraud and people standing in longer lines at the driver’s license facility,” Dillard said in a statement to me. “But I am open to discussing Motor Voter going forward.”
* And remember this?…
To improve education, Dillard said he would prevent Chicago schools from taking about $1 billion they currently take away from downstate schools.
“A child who lives in poverty in downstate should be equal to one in Chicago,” he said.
* Well…
Dillard, a state senator from Hinsdale, defended his critique that the city’s control of state government has led to Chicago Public Schools siphoning nearly $1 billion in general state aid payments from rural and suburban schools, including changes in funding formulas for students living in poverty.
“I’m not proposing we take a penny out of the Chicago Public Schools. But my point is, when you have control of the entire state by one city, things happen,” Dillard said in an interview on WGN-AM (720).
“I’m not saying at all that you ought to reduce the funding to the Chicago Public Schools,” he said. “What I’m saying is that when we have these formulas, you need geographic balance in Illinois and I will be a governor for all of Illinois–not just the suburbs, not just Chicago, not just downstate Illinois or southern Illinois.” […]
Dillard acknowledged, however, the increased general state aid education payments to Chicago are largely a “wash” with income tax payments made by Chicago taxpayers to help fund teacher pensions outside Chicago.
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Brady’s path to victory
Monday, Sep 23, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* My weekly syndicated newspaper column…
For a moment, let’s flash back to a poll I commissioned last month. The August 13th Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll surveyed 1,102 likely Republican primary voters.
The poll found that 74 percent of Republicans wanted GOP gubernatorial candidates to choose a running mate who was “more conservative” than the candidates themselves. Another 18 percent said ideology made no difference and a mere 7 percent said they wanted a more liberal running mate.
The poll found that 73 percent of Republican women and 75 percent of men wanted a more conservative running mate. 79 percent of seniors, who tend to dominate GOP primaries, wanted a more rightward pick. 77 percent of collar county Republicans, 73 percent of suburban Cook and Downstate Republicans and 69 percent of Chicago Republicans wanted the candidates to look to their right when picking their lieutenant governor candidates.
As you probably already know, Illinois changed its laws on running mates. Before, lieutenant governor candidates ran independently in primaries. Now, candidates for governor are required to choose a running mate before they begin circulating nominating petitions.
Fast-forward to today. So far, anyway, the gubernatorial candidate who has by far heeded this poll result the most is state Sen. Bill Brady, who was, socially anyway, the most conservative candidate in the race to begin with.
Brady did not try at all to “soften” his ideological stances by picking a more moderate candidate. Unlike state Sen. Kirk Dillard, who chose a sitting state Representative as his running mate, Brady went outside the state party establishment and selected a former suburban mayor of a wealthy small town named Maria Rodriguez. Ms. Rodriguez has spent the past few years running a far-right statewide tea party-affiliated organization for Adam Andrzejewski, who wasn’t a particularly great statewide candidate in 2010, but did build a heck of a large list of devoted tea party activists, partly because of his executive director Rodriguez,.
Sen. Brady was outspent by more than 7-1 by Andy McKenna in the 2010 gubernatorial primary and almost 3-1 by Sen. Dillard. Despite some polling which showed McKenna leading near the end, the previously unknown’s support turned out to be paper thin and he dropped like a rock in the last few days as the election became “real” to voters. Dillard, for his part, was hurt badly in the closing days by McKenna’s attacks on him for cutting a TV ad for Barack Obama’s presidential campaign.
But nobody so much as touched Brady, and Republican primary voters turned to him at almost literally the last minute. The only poll I know of which caught Brady’s late surge was a privately commissioned We Ask America poll taken the weekend before the primary election. Brady hadn’t been tainted by hardcore attacks and he was ideologically “pure” enough for GOP primary voters, so he ended up being the default choice. Chicago political reporters, taken completely by surprise, raced down I-55 to Bloomington on primary night to cover Brady’s victory rally.
Despite Dillard’s rightward lurch since losing that 2010 primary, Brady is still likely considered the more “authentic” conservative. And his choice of an outsider tea party leader as a running mate will almost certainly help him lock down the right side of the party.
The difference between now and then, of course, is that Brady won the 2010 primary and he has to be taken seriously by the other candidates. He won’t get a pass between now and March by the big-spending Bruce Rauner or by Dillard and Treasurer Dan Rutherford. This is why Brady’s well-known inability - even reluctance - to raise big money could hurt him badly.
But the idea for 2014 is still the same as 2010. Stay to the right, stay focused on painting his opponents as being far to his own left, pick a running mate who bolsters his conservative credentials and who will “keep him honest,” and try to make the electorate believe that he’s the most “electable” Republican because he’s been there before and has learned how to do it.
I personally never make predictions. The latest polling had Brady leading the pack, although the top three (Brady, Rutherford, Rauner) were all bunched up within 7 points of each other. What I will say is that Brady appears to have a plan that deals with Republican primary voters as they are and it could very well work. More money would help, however.
As always, subscribers have full crosstabs and all the questions asked in that poll.
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Cross officially steps aside
Monday, Sep 23, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From a press release…
State Representative Jim Durkin (R-Western Springs) today has taken over the reins as the new House Republican Leader.
Tom Cross who has served in the position since 2003 has stepped aside to pursue another opportunity.
“Tom Cross was a good leader. I wish him the best in his future endeavors and thank him for service to our caucus,” said Durkin.
“It is a privilege to have been selected the new House Republican Leader by my peers and I’m anxious to get to work. Illinois is a great state facing serious challenges. House Republicans have solid ideas on how to solve our fiscal crisis, and get residents back to work. Like our neighbors, we want safe schools and neighborhoods, and an end to government corruption. We want to restore pride in Illinois – working together we can get the job done.”
Discuss.
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Bill Daley, copper doors and pension reform
Monday, Sep 23, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Yes, I managed to get all that into one Sun-Times column…
Bill Daley’s withdrawal from the governor’s race pretty much snuffed out the “Statehouse doors” controversy.
The late-summer scandal quickly cranked up to full roar after details emerged that a set of six, custom-made doors on the newly remodeled Western wing of the Illinois Statehouse cost almost $700,000.
I was on vacation during much of the uproar, but I figured this would happen years ago when the remodeling began. This kind of thing always happens.
The last time the remodelers were turned loose, the press went nuts over some $400 doorknobs. The cost of a new rug for the secretary of state made big headlines as well one year.
The Statehouse itself was over-budget when it was built in the 19th Century, so I’m sure there was plenty of public screaming way back then, too.
I gathered from the rather blasé response by the state legislative leaders who were in charge when the building was remodeled that they expected there’d be outrage about something. If it wasn’t the doors, then it would’ve been something else. And, frankly, even if the doors had only cost half as much, there might very well have been a hue and cry about that price, too.
The usual response to media events like this is to lie low, issue a terse press statement insisting that the overall work was well worth the price and that the little extras like copper-plated doors represented only a tiny fraction of the cost of much-needed upgrades to an outdated building, then wait patiently for the storm to blow over, which it apparently has.
It’s all just part of a very old and predictable game. Reporters, columnists and editorial writers complain, a few publicity-seeking legislators send out press releases denouncing the overspending, the governor jumps in with his own criticisms, but it’s too late to do anything about it.
And irony of ironies, in just a few days, Statehouse reporters themselves will be moving into their spiffy new Capitol digs, for which they (including me) pay no rent.
I’m not trying to excuse the spending, I’m just telling you how it’s always been in order to set up the rest of this column, which is about pensions.
House Speaker Michael Madigan, Gov. Pat Quinn and the two Republican legislative leaders, along with their cheerleaders in big business, support a pension reform plan that relies heavily on so-called “police powers” to pass constitutional muster.
The legal minds who came up with this say the idea is that Illinois’ fiscal situation is so dire that the state has no choice but to break the state Constitution’s guaranteed contractual right to public pension benefits that can neither be diminished nor impaired.
In fact, Madigan’s own pension reform bill that he introduced earlier this year included a preamble which declared: “the fiscal crisis in the State of Illinois jeopardizes the health, safety, and welfare of the people and compromises the ability to maintain a representative and orderly government.”
Yet, somehow, the fiscal crisis wasn’t quite dire enough to persuade legislators to put off spending $50 million on a Statehouse remodeling project that included $670,000 for copper-plated doors, $300,000 for chandeliers and $80,000 for a couple of statues.
Make no mistake, pension costs are crowding out spending on other much-needed state programs, particularly education. There really is a crisis.
It’s just going to be a bit tougher now to square that reality with this large Statehouse remodeling tab if and/or when a new pension law finally gets in front of a judge.
* Meanwhile…
Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan says he’s waiting for a vote to be scheduled on a pension overhaul.
But the Chicago Democrat says any pension plan must be “meaningful” in order for him to call it for a vote. He didn’t elaborate. […]
Madigan and Cullerton sued Gov. Pat Quinn for halting lawmakers’ pay over pension inaction. A judge is expected to rule soon. Madigan says they’ll likely appeal the case if the ruling doesn’t go their way.
* And let’s finish this post with a comment from Finke…
For a couple of weeks now, we’ve heard people taking shots at the $51.5 million renovation of the Capitol’s west wing, particularly the famous $670,000 copper-plated doors.
Now for a different perspective. Pulitzer Prize winning architecture critic BLAIR KAMIN of the Chicago Tribune added his perspective to the project last week. The story was headlined “Illinois Capitol rehab worth every penny” so it wasn’t going to be another attack on the project’s various outlays. […]
Kamin reviewed the fact that when a major overhaul like this is done, it makes more sense and lowers the cost to do the redecorating at the same time as the other work like replacing the ventilation system and bringing the building up to modern life safety codes.
He also noted that the Capitol is expected to last basically forever.
“When investing in a building like this you take the long view,” he wrote. “You don’t cut corners. Seen in that framework, the renovations should be celebrated, not censured.”
Finke also observed several tourists getting their photo taken in front of the new doors, which has to be helping Springfield’s economy a little bit.
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Caption contest!
Monday, Sep 23, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The Illinois Democrats’ state central committee met in Springfield yesterday and slated Gov. Pat Quinn and the rest of the unopposed ticket…
It took less than a half hour for the party’s state central committee to slate candidates in six statewide primary races. Five candidates currently are unopposed. […]
Gov. Pat Quinn touted the party endorsement as significant even though Daley, his main challenger, withdrew last week with a parting shot — predicting that Quinn would be defeated by a Republican. The only other announced gubernatorial primary candidate is Tio Hardiman, former director of a Chicago anti-violence group and who is little-known outside the city. […]
“The Democratic party is like a family and in any family you’ve had differences,” party chair and House Speaker Michael Madigan said after the meeting. “What I’ve learned about Democrats is that when they have differences, they’re able to work through the differences, and when it’s time for a general election they unite.” […]
Only three of the six candidates — Quinn, U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin and Lt. Gov. Sheila Simon, who is making a bid for comptroller — were present to make a pitch for the committee’s endorsement.
* Bernie Schoeburg was there and tweeted a pic…
Funniest commenter wins a free state legislative mobile app that I’m preparing to unveil.
Our last winner was Michelle Flaherty.
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