* The new AFP Illinois ad targets the progressive tax and Gov. Pat Quinn. Have a look…
* And here are the buy details…
Americans For Prosperity
Targeting IL Gubernatorial / Progressive tax
Agency: Mentzer Media, DC
3/20/14 – 3/26/14
Chicago $ Total: $111,622
Central IL $ Total: $8,165
Networks: AEN, AMC, CNN, HALL, NGC, TWC
Dayparts: All dayparts purchased
Zones / syscodes / $ total by zone
Chicago Interconnect / 5170 / $111,622
Sterling Rock Falls Kewanee / 6805 / $1,970
Galesburg / 6872 / $1,141
Champaign Interconnect / 7800 / $5,054
Total Order All Comcast markets : $119,787
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* The Secretary of State’s office just notified me that Rep. Keith Farnham (D-Elgin) has resigned his House seat. I’ll post the letter when I get it, but there isn’t much there.
As you already know, federal ICE agents served search warrants on Farnham’s home and district office last week.
…Adding… The resignation letter is here.
* The Daily Herald ran this earlier today when Farnham didn’t show up for session…
Illinois House lawmakers milled around the chamber Wednesday, the day after a busy primary election, but when attendance was taken, Farnham didn’t answer the roll.
A photo of him that once hung outside his office in the Illinois Capitol Complex has been taken down, but his nameplate remains.
Farnham’s Elgin office was dark Tuesday, and a woman answering an intercom at his home apartment said he was unavailable.
Many messages left for him have gone unreturned.
*** UPDATE *** The press release provides zero details…
State Rep. Keith Farnham: Resigning from Office
ELGIN, Ill. – The following is a statement from state Rep. Keith Farnham of Elgin.
“It is with great regret today that I announce my resignation from the office of state representative, effective immediately.
“I have been battling serious health issues for a number of years and the coming months will require my full attention. The right thing to do for the people of the 43rd District is to make sure they have a dedicated, qualified and full-time advocate in our communities and in the State Capitol to represent their needs and concerns every day without distraction or interruption. They deserve nothing less.”
Farnham’s resignation from the office of state representative will take effect immediately. He will withdraw as a nominee for state representative in the November election as soon as is legally allowed.
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And off we go…
Wednesday, Mar 19, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From the twitters…
* From the RGA…
Republican Governors Association Chairman Chris Christie issued the following statement regarding the outcome of tonight’s Illinois gubernatorial primary election:
“It’s time to leave behind the days of high unemployment and job losses, skyrocketing taxes, unaccountable spending and failing schools that have blighted the last five years in Illinois under Pat Quinn. Illinois is ready for a real leader: someone who can’t be bought or intimidated. Illinois is ready for a governor who is willing to solve the toughest of problems, not avoid them; for a governor who works to foster economic growth, not stifle it; for a governor who can balance a budget without saddling the taxpayers time and time again; for a governor who refuses to endure the persistent failure of government that has racked Illinois for years.”
“Illinois is ready for Bruce Rauner. He is focused, willing and prepared to do what it takes to bring back Illinois. The Republican Governors Association congratulates Bruce Rauner on his victory tonight and proudly supports his campaign to defeat Governor Quinn.”
Past success elsewhere means the RGA is playing defense a lot this year. They want badly to go on offense, and Illinois is the spot. Plus, taking away a governor’s job in President Obama’s home state would be icing on the cake.
* Also, follow that link in Kurt’s tweet and you’ll see an $18k in-kind contribution from billionaire Ken Griffin. The guy loaned Rauner his private plane.
…Adding… I don’t know if this is the same plane, but this is from a 2009 Bloomberg profile of Griffin…
He spent $80 million on a Jasper Johns painting, donated $19 million for a new wing at the Art Institute of Chicago, married French-born hedge fund manager Anne Dias in the garden of the Palace of Versailles near Paris and bought a Bombardier Global Express private jet — worth about $50 million today, according to the aircraft maker — which he had outfitted with a crib for his 2-year-old son.
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[The following is a paid advertisement.]
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A “MacGuyver campaign”
Wednesday, Mar 19, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Bert Miller’s ties to - and his campaign contributions to - Democrats became a major issue in the closing days of the 11th Congressional District GOP primary. State Rep. Darlene Senger didn’t raise a lot of money, but she cobbled together a few bucks then spent it wisely, knocking the previous frontrunner out of contention.
Sound like a familiar idea? Yeah. Senger did what some other folks shoulda done against a certain Republican with lots of Dem ties.
* Daily Herald…
With 408 of the 417 precincts reporting, unofficial results show Senger with 37.7 percent of the vote. Chris Balkema of Channahon, Bert Miller of Hinsdale and Ian Bayne of Aurora had 32.4 percent, 26.4 percent and 3.5 percent of the vote, respectively.
Senger said the outcome of the race sent a message that voters in the district want her to repeal Obamacare, find a solution to the nation’s budget and deficit problems and change regulations that are killing job creation.
“I ran for this race because every day I wake up I’m represented by someone that believes in bigger government, Obamacare and more regulation,” she said. “We’re going to change that in November.”
Senger, who decided not to seek re-election at the state level to make a bid for the congressional seat, said during the campaign that the Affordable Care Act is “totally destructive and broken” in its current form.
Senger faces incumbent Bill Foster.
* Meanwhile, speaking of MacGuyver candidates, how about that Doug Truax against Jim Oberweis? Yeah, he lost, but he was supposed to get creamed…
In a closer-than-expected GOP primary race Tuesday, Oberweis emerged the victor, capturing 56 percent of the vote to Doug Truax’s 44 percent, with 98 percent of the state’s precincts reporting, according to unofficial returns.
Truax called Oberweis to concede, and later the victor declared that “it’s safe to say” he had captured the nomination.
“I believe that if I win this Senate seat, it means that the Republicans will be taking control of the U.S. Senate and that will change the direction of this country,” Oberweis told supporters.
The man loves his drama, heading to Florida for a week-long break right before the primary, then literally running away from reporters when he finally returned. Rauner is gonna have to figure out how to keep his distance.
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Every little bit helps
Wednesday, Mar 19, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From Equality Illinois…
Illinoisans who believe in fairness and equality secured a decisive victory in Tuesday’s primary with a substantial boost by the efforts of Equality Illinois.
Not a single lawmaker - Republican or Democrat - who voted for the freedom to marry lost due to support of the marriage bill. […]
In races like state Rep. Ron Sandack’s, who won with a margin of 150 votes and whose primary challenger made Sandack’s vote for the marriage bill the focus in the race, Equality Illinois phone banks made over 3,000 dials to constituents and turned out more than 300 votes.
Victory has many fathers, the old saying goes. This was a combined effort. No single factor won that race for Sandack.
* Dan Proft was on the other side of the battle. Matune hasn’t yet conceded, but it’s doubtful that he can overcome his deficit in a recount. Proft did win or help candidates win several other races. Here is Proft’s list…
- State Rep. John Anthony (incumbent) WIN
- Mark Batinick (open seat) WIN
- Peter Breen (challenger to incumbent) WIN
- Charlene Foss-Eggemann for Maine Township GOP Committeeman (open seat) WIN
- Randy Freese (open seat) WIN
- State Rep. Jeanne Ives (incumbent) WIN
- Keith Matune (challenger to incumbent) PENDING
- Margo McDermed (open seat) WIN
- Reggie Phillips (open seat) WIN
- Keith Wheeler (open seat) WIN
Breen is the big one there. Proft was decisive in helping Phillips over the top, but the other races either weren’t close or were handled more by others.
Breen, a pro-life attorney with the Thomas More Society beat Rep. Sandy Pihos by a huge margin. Pihos, however, voted against the gay marriage bill. Rep. Ed Sullivan, who voted yes on that bill, won by a gigantic margin over his far-right primary opponent.
* More from Rep. Sandack…
Noting the near 50-50 split of voters, Sandack said he is now focusing on reaching out to the residents that sided against him.
“My next step is to shore up different constituencies to make sure they know that their voice will be heard and that I will listen to them,” he said. “I think it is about focusing on the issues that matter to all, like the financial future of the state.”
* Meanwhile, the Chicago Teachers Union’s top legislative target this year was Rep. Christian Mitchell. The freshman won 53-47 but challenger Jay Travis is not conceding…
I am not conceding.
Throughout Election Day, we constantly received reports of voter suppression and intimidation, judges tampering with ballots, wrong ballots, ballots missing my name, and illegal electioneering. I personally was turned away from the polls at 6 a.m. due to alleged problems with the voting machine, along with a group of elderly senior citizens who had been waiting in line to vote (I returned over an hour later and was able to cast my ballot at that time).
We have received these kinds of reports from precincts across at least five different wards in the 26th District. This scale is significant in a race separated by just several hundred votes. We will be at the Board of Elections with our attorney tomorrow.
In the meantime, I want to thank those of you who did incredible work in the streets today and packed our Election Night party tonight. You inspire me to continue fighting for a more just and democratic world.
If you look more closely at the numbers, you’ll see that Travis beat Mitchell in Toni Preckwinkle’s 4th Ward. She actually won half of the district’s ten wards. But the 42nd Ward, commanded by Loop Ald. Brendan Reilly, racked up big numbers for Rep. Mitchell, who won the ward 78-22.
* This one wasn’t even close…
The headline race in Chicago was Berrios versus Guzzardi, who lost to her by 125 votes two years ago. He once again attacked the bossism image of her father, the Cook party chair who stuffed his county assessor office with relatives.
In addition to Madigan, Berrios got backing from Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle and U.S. Rep. Luis Gutierrez of Chicago.
Guzzardi was heavily backed by the unions, but the CTU didn’t spend much money there, focusing instead on Mitchell. Labor lost a big one when Rep. Jaime Andrade, Jr won his primary by a large margin. However, the CTU backed Carol Ammons in her upset victory over the Madigan supported candidate…
In what will be perceived statewide as an upset and a stunning defeat for House Speaker Michael Madigan, Urbana City Council member Carol Ammons soundly defeated Champaign attorney Sam Rosenberg, 57 percent to 43 percent, in the Illinois House district that includes most of Champaign-Urbana.
In the closing weeks of the campaign, Ammons hit Rosenberg for his connections to the longtime Speaker of the House. […]
Ammons’ biggest contributions were $5,000 — from both the Illinois Federation of Teachers and the Chicago Teachers Union.
More on that race here.
* Madigan had problems fending off another African-American woman in the Springfield area…
Incumbent Democrat Sue Scherer squeaked out a narrow victory Tuesday over challenger Gina Lathan in the 96th House District race.
In November, she will face Republican Mike Bell of Edinburg, who coasted to an easy victory over Landon Laubhan of Springfield.
Scherer, running for her second term from Decatur, needed a strong showing in her hometown to overcome Lathan, a small-business owner from Springfield.
Unofficial results showed Scherer getting 2,695 votes to Lathan’s 2,507 with all of the vote counted.
Scherer was soundly thumped by Lathan in Sangamon County, getting only 34 percent of the vote to Lathan’s 66 percent. However, Scherer was able to close the gap by carrying large margins in both Macon and Christian counties.
The Speaker had an opportunity to support a pretty well-organized black candidate two years ago and went with Scherer instead. That was a mistake. They’ll be carrying her on their backs for years to come.
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[The following is a paid advertisement.]
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The great clash begins in earnest
Wednesday, Mar 19, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* John Kass…
“It’s going to be ugly, and by Labor Day people won’t even want to turn on their TVs because of all the ads,” said a senior Illinois Democrat, who thinks Pat Quinn has only one route to re-election. “He’s got to turn it into a class war. What else does he have to talk about?”
* That effort began in earnest last night when Quinn launched his first TV ad blasting Rauner on the minimum wage. And it has continued all morning…
Mayor Rahm Emanuel joined Gov. Pat Quinn and U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin for a traditional post-election breakfast at the Billy Goat tavern Wednesday — with the mayor telling voters they now have a clear choice for the general election.
“The public in Illinois is going to have a choice between an agenda that looks out and works on behalf of middle class families who are trying to make it from paycheck to paycheck … and those who are trying to pull the rug from beneath the middle class,” Emanuel said, standing beside Durbin and Quinn.
The governor wasted no time blasting his Republican opponent, calling him a billionaire with nine homes who has a lot of explaining to do to voters — particularly when it comes to his position on Illinois’ minimum wage.
“People want to see the real Bruce Rauner,” Quinn said.
The governor also said Rauner’s closer-than-expected race in the primary means “money isn’t all there is to politics.”
* Gov. Quinn later spoke to reporters about Rauner and the minimum wage…
* My inbox is jammed with attacks on Rauner today. Here’s the summary of a YouTube video put up by the American Bridge 21st Century PAC…
Republican Bruce Rauner - owner of nine homes, earner of $53 million last year, and self proclaimed member of the “.01%” wealthiest Americans - eeked out a meager victory tonight to become the GOP nominee for Illinois governor. With his staunch opposition to raising the minimum wage, out-of-touch billionaire Rauner is the latest face in the “rebranded” Republican Party, which continues to appear anti-middle class, anti-woman, anti-immigrant, and anti-gay.
The video…
* From the Illinois AFL-CIO…
Statement by Illinois AFL-CIO President Michael T. Carrigan on Tuesday’s election results
“The labor movement worked hard to make sure voters knew what billionaire candidate Bruce Rauner is all about. He is the guy that championed cutting the minimum wage and pensions while demonizing teachers, nurses, correctional officers and other employees that serve the public. His kind of divisive leadership is not welcome in Illinois.
“We know that competing against his stacks of money will be difficult, but we continue today what we started months ago - making sure the working families of Illinois understand the Rauner in his TV commercials is fiction. The facts show a mega-wealthy CEO who thinks he can buy an office and trample on workers, yet has no idea - or any ideas - on how to lead.”
* Illinois Freedom PAC…
Bruce Rauner spent millions of his own personal fortune, and despite leading by double-digits in every single public poll, he barely eked out a win to become the Republican nominee for Governor. Needless to say, it was not the victory Rauner thought he had paid for.
“Bruce Rauner dramatically underachieved in yesterday¹s primary because a majority of Illinois Republicans had trouble trusting a political insider whose companies made billions at the expense of regular folks,” says Michael Murray, spokesman for Illinois Freedom. “Now Bruce Rauner will take his out-of-touch agenda to a much bigger audience. While Rauner may be proud that he¹s a billionaire in the top .01%, his plans to cut the minimum wage and slash funding for our schools simply won¹t fly with families in our state. The last thing Illinois needs is a Governor who looks out for the wealthiest among us, while turning his back on the middle-class, and we plan to hold Rauner accountable every step of the way.”
* The DGA…
Last night, the majority of the most hardcore Illinois Republicans rejected billionaire Bruce Rauner. Even with public polling that showed Rauner would win by double digits, actual primary voters decided that his anti-middle class record is not what Illinois needs.
Despite the pre-election punditry, these results shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise. The past few months have shined a bright light on the real Rauner: a typical, uber-rich GOP politician who wants to slash the minimum wage, gut education and public safety, and cut taxes for the wealthiest so those at the very top can benefit.
That stands in stark contrast to Governor Pat Quinn.
When Governor Quinn took office, Illinois was in trouble – two governors in jail, high unemployment, and the worst recession since the Great Depression. Now, he’s righting the ship with a steadfast focus on creating more good-paying, middle-class jobs.
There’s a clear difference in the race ahead – hurting working people in the name of profit for himself and his wealthy pals has been what’s defined Bruce Rauner’s entire corporate career.
In the primary campaign, voters began to learn about Billionaire Bruce’s Romney-esque career in the private sector, which included a “corporate fraud” that resulted in the deaths of nursing home patients and shady financial ties to an imprisoned Blagojevich associate:
* SEIU Healthcare…
“The contrast between the competing visions for Illinois’ future between right-wing billionaires like Bruce Rauner and low-wage homecare workers, nursing home attendants, hospital workers, and child care providers has never been starker.
“Bruce Rauner brags about being in the top 1 percent of the 1 percent of Americans, owns nine luxury homes which are worth millions of dollars each, and made $53 million last year alone – yet Rauner wants to cut the minimum wage from $8.25 back to $7.25 an hour for hard-working Illinoisans who are struggling just to survive.”
* The IFT…
Tonight’s results also demonstrated that Illinois is a much different state than some would like to paint us.
We are not Wisconsin, we are not Michigan, we are not Indiana, and we are not Ohio.
We are Illinois — a state with challenges, no doubt, but one that values fairness and rejects extremism.
We have shown that we are willing to work with decision makers who, like us, want to truly improve Illinois. We want the same. Heading into November, we have some serious considerations to make, but one thing is certain: we won’t back down against Bruce “.01%” Rauner’s hateful and hypocritical attacks. We will continue to advocate for our future and make sure that voters know he would cut the minimum wage and eliminate our rights.
* The Quinn campaign’s email today…
We’re going to learn a lot more about my opponent, Bruce Rauner, in the coming weeks.
What we know right now is that he’s got a lot of ideas — like cutting the minimum wage and cutting education and public safety investments to dangerous levels. They’re the same anti-middle-class policies that got Illinois and the country into a mess in the first place.
* The DNC, however, is sticking to social issues…
Exactly a year ago, RNC Chairman Reince Priebus spoke at the National Press Club and laid out a plan to “rebrand” the Republican Party, and reach out to constituencies who they rightly failed to appeal to during the 2012 elections. But a year later, all the Republican Party has gotten is a year older. No amount of outreach, staff hires, or changes to their primary calendar will change the fact that the GOP’s policy and rhetoric are just as out of step with the majority of American voters as ever.
In fact, a few examples of this failed Republican Party rebrand can be found right here in Illinois.
Careful with that link because there’s some profanity.
* Other stuff…
* Clash of economic visions to mark race for governor
* Illinois’ race for governor: A populism and proxy war
* Quinn vs. Rauner: Who wins the fight for the little guy?
* Will Pat Quinn’s Luck Run Out Against Bruce Rauner?
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Rauner’s labor pivot begins
Wednesday, Mar 19, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Last night, US Sen. Mark Kirk was interviewed by WGN TV’s Tom Negovan at the Bruce Rauner campaign headquarters. Watch…
* Transcript…
Kirk: I came over here thinking pretty much a Rauner blowout was coming, and it’s a little tighter than we expected.
Negovan: It certainly is tighter than a lot of people expected. What do you attribute that to, Senator?
Kirk: I would say tactical voting has finally worked of the big public sector unions turning out the vote for their man.
Negovan: I was just talking to the folks back at the studio about that just a second ago. You know, when Bruce Rauner talks about Scott Walker and Mitch Daniels as mentors and examples he wants to follow … could that be a tactical error?
Kirk: It turns out that the big unions are stronger than we all expected here in Illinois.
* Early this morning, AFSCME’s Henry Bayer forwarded me a Bruce Rauner fundraising e-mail that the candidate sent out late last night. Bayer prefaced it with this comment…
It’s early in the morning, so I may have missed the word “union” in this attack.
* From Rauner’s e-mail…
Thank you!
Tonight’s victory is an extraordinary first step towards transforming Illinois.
Pat Quinn and his special interest allies spent $6 million trying to defeat us in the primary and you stopped them.
We are so humbled by your extraordinary support. We won because we stayed true to our core beliefs: we must shake up the system to bring back Illinois.
We are united in a desire to bring back jobs, reverse the Quinn-Madigan 67% tax hike, cut wasteful spending, reform our broken school system, and pass term limits to get rid of the career politicians.
We never deviated from a simple truth: our government is run by lobbyists, for special interests, and the career politicians in both parties let it happen.
Yep. Not a word about unions.
* Indeed, Rauner’s campaign manager told WGN last night that his candidate is “very pro union.”
…Adding… Rauner’s victory speech last night was loud, proud and more than a bit Howard Deanish. But during his speech he said his campaign was about “the working families of our state. This is about the truck driver in Rockford who’s looking for more work. This is about the factory worker in Decatur who lost his job who’s looking for another job. This is about the school teacher in Chicago who’s working hard to inspire children to learn and deserves our support and respect and reward.”
Watch…
A more subdued Rauner repeated the line this morning on WLS Radio.
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Today’s number: $42.97
Wednesday, Mar 19, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Bruce Rauner spent about $14 million to win yesterday’s Republican gubernatorial primary. With 99.4 percent of the vote counted, Rauner has tallied 325,792 votes. That’s $42.97 a vote.
…Adding… To be fair, this e-mail was just sent by the Rauner campaign. It’s called “Primary Campaign By The Numbers”…
Since taking the first steps of a campaign for governor a little over a year ago, Bruce Rauner has been committed to running a comprehensive, grassroots-oriented campaign that enabled him to overcome nearly $6 million spent by Democrats and special interests attempting to defeat Bruce in the primary.
Democrat/Special Interest Money Spent to Defeat Bruce: $5,800,000+
Votes for Bruce Rauner: 325,972
Votes for Pat Quinn: 314, 085
Volunteer Phone Calls: 250,000+
Illinois Miles Traveled: 50,000+
Donations: 5750+
Volunteers: 2,300+
Campaign & Community Events: 550+
72 Hour Program Volunteers: 500+
Media Interviews: 200+
Years Since GOP Nominee Received More Primary Votes Than Democrat Nominee: 16
Years Since GOP Nominee Received More Votes Than Rauner: 12
Debates/Forums: 8
Campaign Field Offices: 3
Bruce Rauner Name ID One Year Ago: 0
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* As I told you earlier today, Gov. Pat Quinn is running a new TV ad during news coverage of election results. The ad uses video footage of Bruce Rauner talking about lowering the minimum wage and about being “adamantly, adamantly” against raising it. The ad ends with the silent tagline “Who is the Real Bruce Rauner?”
* Rate it…
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A brief moment of Oscar-related Zen
Tuesday, Mar 18, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* It’s been a very rough day, partly because Oscar the Puppy is with his mommy while I work. She took him for a haircut…
* Oscar will be spending the evening away from home because of the election. I miss him terribly, but he can occasionally be a distraction…
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IFT wins major UNO contract
Tuesday, Mar 18, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Interesting stuff from Greg Hinz…
On a day when strong charter-school advocate Bruce Rauner is expected to win the GOP nomination for governor, the movement suffered what many would consider an off-setting defeat to its biggest foe: organized labor.
In an ironic touch to this Election Day, the Illinois Federation of Teachers announced that staffers at the United Neighborhood Organization charter network, the biggest in the city, have overwhelmingly ratified their first, union-negotiated contract.
The vote, described by the federation as “nearly unanimous,” will cover more than 500 teachers and staff at 16 UNO schools and comes about a year after 90 percent of those employees voted to affiliate.
Twenty-nine charter schools, nearly a quarter of the city’s total, now have voted to unionize with the federation, and organizing efforts are underway at some others, according to the union.
* From Catalyst Chicago…
Union organizers say the contract, approved in a 445-to-16 vote, sets a “gold standard” for future charter school labor agreements across the country. It includes:
* A salary schedule based on years of experience and educational attainment that will raise some employees’ salaries by as much as $10,000. Pay increases will be retroactive to the beginning of this school year.
* Elimination of year-end bonuses based on evaluations that employees say used inconsistent metrics and fueled resentment among colleagues.
* A “just cause” provision for terminations and a grievance procedure.
* Paid and unpaid release time for bargaining unit members to do union-related work.
* A longer summer break for teachers. Previously, teachers and staff had four weeks of summer vacation; now they will have five weeks under the new contract. However, the total number of instructional days remain unchanged.
“This contract will give a lot of people hope that [the charter network] is a place they can stay at for more than a year or two and grow as teachers and professionals without thinking their jobs are going to be on the line at the end of the year,” said Mallory Bruno, a special education teacher at UNO’s Octavio Paz Elementary School. “The salary schedule is so appealing now, I look forward to staying here for years to come.”
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* From a press release…
The Dillard-Tracy campaign is calling on Republican candidate Bruce Rauner to stop his paid “volunteers” from soliciting voters at polling places for a term-limits constitutional amendment, an issue Rauner has promoted during his campaign.
“This is unconscionable,” Dillard-Tracy Campaign Manager Glenn Hodas said. “Rauner’s bending the rules, yet again, by stationing paid workers at the doorways of polling places, supposedly to collect signatures for his term limits referendum, but in reality promoting his candidacy.”
Technically, Rauner’s workers aren’t considered to be “electioneering” because they are supposed to be collecting signatures for a referendum. “But this is a political committee Bruce is the Chairman of, and has contributed $250,000 to,” Hodas said. “These are not disinterested workers at the polls.”
Election law prevents campaigns from having staff or volunteers stand within 100 feet of the entrance of a polling place on the day of an election. Hodas said Rauner is skirting the legal prohibition.
“This looks like another slick move by Rauner to bend the rules to get what he wants, at the expense of the integrity of the process,” Hodas said.
They’re right that technically this is not against the law. As long as those petition passers aren’t pushing Rauner’s name at all, it’s legal.
And, in reality, perhaps the best way to get valid petition signatures from registered voters is to go to polling places on election day. So, while it’s distasteful to Dillard’s campaign, this is a smart move on Rauner’s part.
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* Will Caskey, a regular commenter here, has an excellent op-ed over at the Illinois Observer about Rep. Toni Berrios’ Chicago primary battle against Will Guzzardi and broader lessons that should be learned. Go read the whole thing…
Negative ads, mail work. Say it in the mirror until you believe it: negative attacks work. Whether that is good or bad doesn’t matter. It works. It’s what the people want.
If you examine all the mail sent in this race (you’re welcome, by the way), you’ll see that both candidates smacked the crap out of each other. About half of the pieces from both sides was negative.
Witness: Berrios sent out 40 total mail pieces, of which 17 (42 percent) were negative, 8 were positive, 4 were GOTV, 6 were positives sent by interest groups and 5 were “dear neighbor” letters. If you count just the actual direct mail sent by Berrios and House Democrats, then 68 percent were negative.
Guzzardi sent out 9 total pieces, of which 4 (44 percent) were negative.
Bear in mind that these are only counts for mail sent to the general voting universe. It’s probable both sides sent mail to more specific audiences
The only surprise is that the negative percentages were that low. As the incumbent, Berrios has an interest in disqualifying Guzzardi. There’s also the added benefit that overwhelming negatives can depress turnout, which usually benefits incumbents. Guzzardi has an interest in informing people why they should care about their state rep, which usually means because their state rep screwed up.
Ah, but this isn’t just any negative mail.
It’s screaming, nasty, ugly, unsettling negative mail. Mail with sex offenders gripping young girls and neighborhood watch-style flyers yelling about rapists in the immediate vicinity. These attacks aren’t over the top, they’re flying at 30,000 feet. Are these attacks fair? Say it with me: It doesn’t matter. Every attack is fair, and unfair. It depends on how much you like the person being attacked. Fairness is a matter of opinion; proper attacks are a matter of fact.
But are they effective?
As I learned the hard way, presentation matters. An attack can be accurate, and poll well, but it can still be worthless with improper presentation. People expect to see a certain range of information about politicians. When we are presented with unexpected information our most frequent reaction is simply to deny it.
And that’s the risk in this approach. It’s not that there will be a backlash. The only “backlash” coming from the district is from people who were already going to vote for Guzzardi. (By complete coincidence, Guzzardi claims he’s hearing about a great big backlash!) The danger in bad presentation is that the attacks simply won’t work. You have a very limited window of persuasion in a campaign, and all opportunity costs are serious failures.
That last point is why the Democrats’ over-the-top attacks on Guzzardi may not have worked. And if they didn’t work, Guzzardi probably wins tonight.
Again, go read the whole thing.
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Mailer urges Dems to vote for Sandack
Tuesday, Mar 18, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* A political committee that doesn’t seem to be registered yet with the state has sent a mailer to Democrats urging them to vote in the Republican primary for Rep. Ron Sandack…
As noted above, Illinois Common Sense PAC is not registered with the board of elections.
Sandack’s opponent Keith Matune is supported by Dan Proft.
* Meanwhile, here’s one of several pieces criticizing Rep. Jeanne Ives…
Rep. Ives’ Republican opponent is backed by organized labor, particularly the teachers.
* And speaking of Ives, House GOP Leader Jim Durkin has been making the round of campaign offices today and stopped by to see Ives…
Caption?
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Quinn to go on the air tonight with TV ad buy
Tuesday, Mar 18, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Gov. Pat Quinn will begin running ads in some broadcast TV markets tonight during the stations’ election results coverage. This is what I’ve been able to discern so far. Chicago and Champaign at least…
Pat Quinn Chicago WLS 18-Mar 19-Mar $13,500
Pat Quinn Chicago WBBM 18-Mar 19-Mar $4,625
Pat Quinn Chicago WFLD 18-Mar 19-Mar $6,000
Pat Quinn Chicago WMAQ 18-Mar 19-Mar $6,400
Pat Quinn Chicago CLTV 18-Mar 19-Mar $955
Pat Quinn Chicago WGN 18-Mar 19-Mar $7,900
Pat Quinn Champaign WICS 18-Mar 19-Mar $2,700
Pat Quinn Champaign WRSP 18-Mar 19-Mar $500
Pat Quinn Champaign WCIA 18-Mar 19-Mar $1,645
Pat Quinn Champaign WAND 18-Mar 19-Mar $1,180
Chicago: $39,380 (75-100 GRPs)
Champaign: $6,025 (100 GRPs)
I don’t have the ad yet, but I’ll try to find it.
I’m also hearing about some significant upcoming broadcast and cable buys by Quinn.
* Meanwhile, here’s a press release from the Democratic Governors Association…
“Pat Quinn is a Street Fighter”
On “The Daily Rundown with Chuck Todd” this morning, Chicago Sun-Times columnist Carol Marin said that Illinois Governor Pat Quinn is a “street fighter,” who Republicans underestimate at their own peril. She went on to say “he is as much an outsider” as Billionaire Bruce Rauner. The truth is that Rauner is just a typical, uber-rich, right-wing politician who wants to slash the minimum wage, gut education and public safety, and cut taxes for the wealthiest at the expense of the middle class.
Watch the video here: http://youtu.be/P4ialwIc3Xk
TRANSCRIPT
MARIN: It’s easy to underestimate Pat Quinn.
TODD: A lot of Democrats have done that for years.
MARIN: A lot of them have, and to their peril. I mean, he is as much an outsider as Bruce Rauner, the Republican, is casting himself as. Pat Quinn is a street fighter. He may operatee out of a pocket protector than out of a massive computer bank but he is going to give this race a real fight, whoever is the nominee on the Republican side.
* The video…
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Davis, Harold in the home stretch
Tuesday, Mar 18, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From an AP story about Congressman Rodney Davis’ GOP primary race against Erika Harold…
Early on, the race between Davis and Harold was expected to be tight. Brian Gaines, a political science professor at the University of Illinois’ Institute of Government and Public Affairs, said the Urbana lawyer, 34, is the kind of candidate many Republican loyalists would like to see on a ballot to broaden the party’s reach.
“She’s got a lot of qualities that make her in a sense a godsend for the Republican Party,” Gaines said.
But Harold has said that party insiders appear to favor Davis, a former staffer for U.S. Rep. John Shimkus, and failed to give her equal access to GOP campaign resources. She also has lagged in fundraising: Through the end of December, Davis had raised $1.45 million to Harold’s $215,000, according to the Federal Election Commission.
Gaines said her campaign has appeared disorganized — focusing on complaints about her treatment by party officials rather than effectively countering with grass-roots organizing.
Who said this race would be tight? Anyone not allied with Harold?
And, by the way, Professor Gaines makes an excellent point. As the old saying goes, “Don’t mourn, organize.”
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* AP…
An Illinois Senate panel has approved Gov. Pat Quinn’s choice to oversee the state Department of Corrections despite objections from Republicans.
Monday’s 7-2 vote on Corrections Director S.A. “Tony” Godinez (goh-DEEN’-ez) came during a hearing in Chicago. […]
The Senate Executive Appointments Committee meeting was held a day before Tuesday’s election.
State Sen. Tim Bivins from Dixon is the panel’s ranking Republican. He says Monday’s vote creates an unusual appearance.
* More…
Godinez also defended the agency against the perception that the facilities are overcrowded. Currently, there are nearly 50,000 inmates in a system built to house about 32,000 prisoners.
Godinez said there are enough beds for inmates, if you count putting bunks in gymnasiums, but the high numbers of inmates mean prisoners don’t receive the kinds of educational and vocational classes they should be receiving.
“We’re overcrowded because we don’t have enough programs for everybody,” Godinez said.
He won praise from Democrats for implementing an early prisoner release program that has resulted in just 3.9 percent of those inmates returning to prison.
“We’re jumping on these guys if they aren’t adhering to the basic parole rules,” Godinez said. “Our efforts so far have been miraculous.”
Discuss.
*** UPDATE *** From the Department of Corrections…
During yesterday’s confirmation hearing, Illinois Department of Corrections (IDOC) Director Salvador “Tony” Godinez never said there are enough beds for inmates—if you count putting bunks in gymnasiums. That would be wildly inaccurate since only 24 of 48,400 inmates in our system are housed in one former gym space. 24.
IDOC no longer needs gyms for housing,and last summer we eliminated gym use; these 24 inmates stayed while permanent conversation was planned. In fact, the Director actually said this insignificant number of 24 will be out of gyms in two weeks.
Further, we do not have nearly 50,000 inmates in this system. It is currently 48,400. That’s closer to 48K than 50K. The difference is almost what would be in one prison.
Finally, this important fact. Director Godinez never said it is “98% true” that he spends more time visiting with inmates than staff. Mr. Godinez three times described how he had made an average of more than 50 visits to Illinois prisons each year during his three years as Director and that he “visits every area, every employee, from officers to health care workers to the records office.”
His actual quote referenced that 98% of the time he “bypasses the Warden’s office and goes directly into the prison,” whereas his predecessors’ typical prison tours amounted to “staying in the Warden’s office, drinking coffee.”
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Mid-morning precinct reports
Tuesday, Mar 18, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* There have been scattered problems reported in Chicago’s voting so far this morning. A handful of precincts in formerly powerful Democratic bastions haven’t had enough polling judges to open. Those wards include 32, 35, 23 and 4, which is the home of Toni Preckwinkle’s South Side organization. The failure to open has caused at least one legislative challenger to hint darkly of conspiracy…
* But the Chicago Board of Elections says this had nothing to do with any conspiracy. Sometimes, judges just don’t show up…
With reports of some polling stations opening more than an hour late Tuesday, officials with the Chicago Board of Election Commissioners were considering the relatively rare step of going to court to force those precincts to stay open late.
“People should still count on the polls closing at 7 p.m.,” said Jim Allen, spokesman for the election board. “However, there may be isolated incidents where we go to court and say that because polling places weren’t open or because they had difficulty getting equipment set up on time, or because judges arrived late or were not in attendance, we may have to go into court and ask that those particular precincts remain open a little bit longer.”
Allen said he had no reason to believe the delays were intentional, and election officials were still trying to determine how many precincts were affected.
* The Tribune has a piece on light Chicago turnout and heavier suburban turnout…
Business was more brisk at a polling place at Good Shepherd Evangelical Lutheran Church in Downers Grove. An election judge there said turnout was better than expected. […]
There was a small line of people waiting to vote at a polling place at St. John Lutheran Church in Darien.
“It’s been pretty busy, people come and go,” said election judge Marion Maida.
Andy Wrona, 32, of Darien said he voted mainly because his wife is a teacher. “The tough talk against unions made me come out and vote for a certain candidate,” he said.
* What’s going on in your neck of the woods?
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