“Rauner opens door to higher income tax rate”
Monday, Jul 21, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Way to go, Rick Pearson…
Republican governor candidate Bruce Rauner today opened the door to a potential income-tax hike, saying the 3.75 percent personal rate he would inherit if he wins this fall would be subject to negotiations with a General Assembly that’s expected to remain in Democratic hands.
Rauner, elaborating on the tax plan he unveiled last week, said voters shouldn’t get hung up on short-term budget issues and tax rates. Instead, he said, the overall goal is to make structural changes in state government that would lead to a rollback of the income tax to 3 percent by the end of his first term in office.
In releasing his proposal, Rauner called for a four-year phase out of the 2011 state income tax increase approved by Democrats and signed into law by his general election challenger, Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn. That increase, which bumped the personal rate from 3 percent to 5 percent, is scheduled to roll back to 3.75 percent on Jan. 1, before the next governor is inaugurated.
“Well, I think we’ll work out the specific rate with the General Assembly like we’re going to work out the entire budget with the General Assembly. My personal goal, (the) 3.75 (personal rate) I think is good, but we need to work out the overall plan and how we transition,” Rauner said during a campaign event at a River North restaurant.
“What we need to do is make major structural change over time so we become a growth state again. That’s the critical thing. And here’s what my commitment is. We need to roll the (personal) income tax rate back from 5 percent back to 3 percent where it started within a four-year period and I think 3.75 is a good place to step to next but we’ll work out those details with the General Assembly,” he said. [Emphasis added]
It’s just not possible to immediately get a brand new service tax up and running. No way could businesses comply right away. So you can’t use money from the service tax to plug the second half of this fiscal year’s budget. He’s gotta raise that rate from 3.75 percent. And he all but admitted he’d have to start at five. And that means a post-inaugural vote. And a bipartisan vote at that.
That’ll be fun to watch.
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* From a Tom Cross press release. Pay special attention to the last two paragraphs…
Over the last five months, State Senator and candidate for Illinois State Treasurer Mike Frerichs has delivered stinging criticism directed at the office of the Treasurer’s investment portfolio, specifically Illinois’ investment in other states and overseas. Frerichs has countered with his own plan of investing exclusively in Illinois investments, although he has not outlined how that plan would work or how it would meet the statutes restricting investments by the office of the Treasurer.
Yesterday on WGN Radio’s “Sunday Spin with Rick Pearson”, Republican candidate for Illinois State Treasurer Tom Cross outlined the perils of Frerichs’ “insiders only” investment strategy, pointing out that it would likely result in lower returns for Illinois taxpayers as there will be limited competition and a closed market for over $13 billion of investment. In addition, Cross added that with Illinois’ past record of corruption and graft, particularly within the role of state investments, limiting Illinois’ $13 billion exclusively to investments within the state greatly increases the potential for fraud and corruption.
“We need to be working for taxpayers to receive the greatest return for their hard-earned tax dollars while minimizing risk,” said Cross. “Like every other person who has a 401k, we are going to look across the US and even globally to secure a good return and a safe return for every tax dollar we invest.”
Frerichs’ criticism of overseas investments also is at odds with his past voting record. As a Senator, Frerichs has supported overseas investments , but now as a candidate for Treasurer, Frerichs is leveling harsh criticism at the Treasurer’s global investment strategy.
One country that would be singled out under Frerichs’ plan is Israel. The office of Treasurer currently has $25 million invested in foreign bonds, all with the country of Israel.
More than 80 states and municipalities in the United States currently invest in Israel bonds. Last month the state of Ohio invested over $47 million in Israel bonds. Today, an Israel Bond with a 10 year maturity pays nearly 1.4% above the U.S. Treasury rate for the same length. Since the introduction of the bonds in 1951, Israel has never missed or defaulted on a payment.
The North Shore is a crucial battleground area. Mark Kirk did well there and won statewide. Bill Brady fared poorly and lost. The area’s 10th Congressional District always features candidates attempting to outdo each other on pro-Israeli policies.
We’ll see how Frerichs reacts to this, but right now I’d say it’s a smart political move by Cross.
However, I personally would rather see more of the state’s money invested right here, even if it brings a slightly lower immediate return.
Discuss.
…Adding… There seems to be some confusion or deliberate spin in comments. Frerichs wants a blanket policy. He didn’t “single out” Israel. That’s just Cross’ rhetoric. It works, though, as comments clearly show.
*** UPDATE *** From the Frerichs campaign…
- Yesterday the Tom Cross campaign launched an untrue and unfounded attack on Sen. Frerichs and his support for continued Illinois investment in Israel Bonds.
See the statement below from state Sens. Daniel Biss and Ira Silverstein and state Reps. Lou Lang and Sara Feigenholz on behalf of Treasurer Candidate Mike Frerichs, in response to a release yesterday from the Cross campaign that erroneously suggested Mike wants to end state investments in Israel. Here is the full audio clip from the radio interview, where it’s clear Mike said nothing like that. The relevant section starts at about 7:30:
In fact, Mike supported I-Bonds as chief co-sponsor of this bill with his Jewish colleagues last year: http://ilga.gov/legislation/billstatus.asp?DocNum=1571&GAID=12&GA=98&DocTypeID=HB&LegID=72631&SessionID=85
“Mike Frerichs is among the most outspoken and vocal advocates for the State of Israel in the Illinois General Assembly. He was a strong supporter of the bill that would allow for significant new investment in Israel Bonds, and supports the policy that keeps Illinois pension funds from investing in businesses that adhere to the economic boycott of Israel. As State Treasurer, he will work to strengthen the economic ties of the State of Illinois to Israel. This policy will create jobs here and advance the interests of our chief ally in the Mideast.
At a time when the State of Israel is in armed conflict, fighting for its survival and its security, it is unfortunate that Tom Cross has decided to use Israel as a political pawn in the race for State Treasurer. Not only is he wrong about Mike Frerichs, but Mr. Cross has degraded the political process by resorting to twisting of facts for his own personal political gain.”
…Adding More… The breakdown of Treasurer Rutherford’s investment portfolio is here.
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* Stu Rothenberg has moved the 10th CD from Toss-up/Tilt Democrat to Pure Toss-Up…
IL 10 (Schneider, D). Brad Schneider squeaked out a win over Republican incumbent Bob Dold by just over a percentage point (fewer than 3,500 votes) in 2012. Now, Dold has a re-match, figuring that in an off-year, and without President Obama on the ballot, he has a better chance to win. Dold ran a strong race before and he appears to have a small advantage right now. Democrats have reason to worry about that Democratic Governor Pat Quinn will meltdown outside of Chicago and affect the party’s chances in House races. This contest should be very close once again and we’re moving it from Toss-Up/Tilt Democrat to Pure Toss-Up
It’s tough to beat an incumbent, as evidenced by Schneider barely eking out a win against a Republican freshman in a huge Democratic year. This will obviously not be a huge Democratic year. And Quinn is under-performing most of the rest of the ticket pretty much everywhere else. He could turn out to be a significant drag.
Your thoughts on this race?
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Lisa Madigan’s end game
Monday, Jul 21, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The attorney general’s office has been spending an enormous amount of time and money defending the state in this deluge of cases. So, the Illinois State Police’s new rules appear to have been essentially designed to get these cases out of the courts and back to the review board…
There are about 200 concealed carry denials before Illinois courts, brought by people who say they shouldn’t have been deemed dangerous or a threat to public safety by Illinois’ Concealed Carry Licensing Review Board.
Until recently, applicants didn’t actually know why they were rejected.
In response to the swarm of lawsuits, the State Police just issued new rules. From here on out, the review board must tell applicants why they were denied; those applicants also have a ten-day window to write a written objection.
Rather than continue fight it out in court, Illinois’ Attorney General is going to ask that all of the ongoing lawsuits be tossed back to the licensing board.
“The reasoning for that is based on the concerns that the applicants have raised, one of those being an opportunity to respond to the board’s reasoning for objecting, or questioning, an applicant for concealed carry license,” says the Attorney General’s spokeswoman, Natalie Bauer.
As I’ve pointed out before, these new rules are hardly adequate. Ten days to respond? Ludicrous.
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Mo’ money
Monday, Jul 21, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From the Tribune’s indispensable Twitter app…
Illinois Freedom PAC is backed mainly by the DGA and labor unions.
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*** UPDATE 1 *** The Rauner folks just found some new audio of Quinn debating Democratic primary opponent Dan Hynes in January of 2010, months after Quinn testified on that Senate bill. Here’s what Quinn said about the Senate’s revenue bill that included the new service tax…
Transcript…
Quinn: “Rev. Sen. Meeks, who’s my friend and who’s supporting me, feels the same way I do and he got a bill passed through the Illinois Senate that I support and I testified for it in the Illinois House… We don’t forget people in need. If they need education, then we invest in it. And I think the only way to do it is to do it the right way, the way Sen. Meeks has proposed… I called up Mike Madigan that night, one minute after Rev. Meeks got that bill passed, and I said ‘Mike, how about tomorrow let’s go vote for that’ and he said ‘No.’ But I went and testified for it for two hours with David Miller.”
I’m tempted to withdraw the question. Your thoughts?
*** UPDATE 2 *** I’ve given it some thought and I’m withdrawing the question. Quinn obviously worked to pass this bill, which included a service tax, then months later touted his support for the bill.
[ *** End Of Updates *** ]
* From the AP…
Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Rauner said Thursday he wants to lower Illinois’ income tax rate, freeze property taxes and impose a new sales tax on some services, a plan he said would help improve the economy and grow jobs but that Gov. Pat Quinn dismissed as “a dumb idea.” […]
“This is a dumb idea and I don’t believe people in Illinois are going to buy it whatsoever,” the Chicago Democrat said […]
[Rauner’s] campaign also raised an eyebrow at Quinn’s criticism, saying the governor testified in favor of a 2009 budget proposal that included a tax on services, including dry cleaning. But Quinn spokeswoman Brooke Anderson said that testimony was part of budget negotiations. The governor only favored part of the proposal, and not the tax on services, she said.
The Rauner campaign is doing its level best to connect Quinn to Rauner’s service sales tax proposal. But Quinn’s campaign has pushed back hard against this notion that Quinn testified on behalf of the service tax, and they point to his budget address this year, during which he forcefully opposed a service tax. Quinn likely did so because Rauner long ago signaled that he was open to the tax.
* Gov. Quinn was asked specifically about the service tax during that 2009 testimony. This audio was sent to me on background…
Transcript…
Question: “Governor, there’s…we’ve had conversations talking about Illinois’ competitiveness and I know you’re concerned about that issue. But, raising taxes…income tax, and sales tax the way this bill does, what is that going to do to our competitiveness?
Quinn: “Well, I think our biggest problem when you talk about taxation and business job creation is the property tax system. We have to address that. The Illinois property tax system is antiquated, it was written in the 19th century, it’s hundreds of pages long. This is an opportunity to address property taxes and reforming them, and reducing them. I think that we have to deal with that if we want to have a good job climate and that to me is one of the features of this bill that is a very good one. It is a strong effort to get the state of Illinois pay at least half the cost of education and to reduce the property tax burden on families and businesses.”
* Brooke Anderson’s complete response, slightly edited for style…
The Governor clearly stated his position on service tax this year in his budget address.
Re 2009, the bill HB 174 was based on a long-standing proposal known as SB 750. Among key components, the bill did the following, all of which the Governor has long supported:
-raised the income tax from 3-5%
-provided signficcant new property tax relief
-provided an increase in the personal exemption
-increased the earned income tax credit
At the time, this was the last day of session and it was a comprehensive package designed to address the State’s fiscal challenges, avert the cliff and impending bond downgrades, and to reduce reliance on property taxes for funding eduction, one of the Governor’s top priorities– it was also the vehicle for revenue and a work in progress like so many things in Springfield. This is pretty obvious when you watch the clips.
The sales tax to services piece was a minor component and advocated by Senate Democrats - not the Governor- the above-listed were the key parts and sought by the Governor
When asked if he supports the bill in Q&A, the Governor says it is worthy of debate and stresses the need to reduce property taxes and balance the budget. He urges consideration and further dialogue.
The clip rauner’s camp sent is consistent with all this - the Governor makes no reference to sales taxes on services and clearly speaks to the need to reduce property taxes. Also I can’t even confirm it’s from the same committee hearing where the Governor testified because there are no details available, date, etc. - just sketchy freeze frame & audio.
Here’s more video:
* The Question: Is this a fair hit by Quinn on Rauner’s “dumb” plan, or is it a fair retort by Rauner that Quinn supported a similar “dumb” plan, or is it both or is it neither? Withdrawn.
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Save the date!
Monday, Jul 21, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* I actually teared up a little when the folks from Lutheran Social Services of Illinois approached me about giving me their “Amicus Certus” award, but I was reluctant to the point of wanting to find a way to say “No.” Sure, we’ve helped raised them a few bucks, but is that really worth an award?
On the other hand, the awards dinner is another way to help raise some more money for one of the best social service organizations in the entire state, if not the nation. If they thought it would work, who am I to turn them down? Plus, Orion Samuelson got the award a while ago and I’ve been a huge fan of his ever since I was a kid riding on a tractor and listening to every word of his farm report. That man has the best voice in all of radio. So, buy your tickets now…
Amicus Certus means “True Friend.” Some award background…
A true friend is one soul in two bodies. That was Aristotle’s idea of amicus certus.
For Lutheran Social Services of Illinois (LSSI), Amicus Certus (“true friend”) is the name of the award given at our annual fall celebration, presented to a person who has made significant contributions to the human community.
Some LSSI background…
Founded in 1867, Lutheran Social Services of Illinois (LSSI) is a statewide, not-for-profit social service agency of the Evangelical Lutheran Church in America. LSSI is committed to caring for people in need, regardless of religion, age or national origin, helping them to make important changes that lead to better lives and stronger communities. Each year, tens of thousands of people receive assistance from LSSI through a broad array of children’s services, older adult care, senior housing, behavioral health and development disabilities services, and services for prisoners and their families.
* As you may recall, we donated all profits from both of my 50th birthday parties (Springfield and Chicago) to LSSI, then donated a large number of toys at my Christmas-time City Club speech last year, plus raised some cash. We’ll be doing the toy collection thing again this year as well.
Like I said, that really isn’t all that much. But I’m still honored that they think this highly of me. So buy some tickets and sponsor some tables.
/fullcourtpress
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Go, go White Sox!
Monday, Jul 21, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* I think I told you this already, but years ago I turned down one of Pat Quinn’s White Sox tickets. Some of his lieutenant governor staffers were going to a game and they offered one of his tix to me.
Call me a snob, but I hate the upper deck and that’s where Quinn’s season tickets are. Dan Proft and I went to a game years ago and we sat in the upper deck and I vowed I wouldn’t ever do that again.
* Anyway, Steve Bogira at the Reader was surprised that Quinn would sit there…
I leaned down to him. “Governor—what are you doing in the upper deck?”
He turned and said, “I’ve got season tickets here. Had ‘em ten, 11 years.”
“But why in the upper deck?”
He shrugged. “You can see the game.”
Quinn doesn’t ordinarily look down on Chicagoans, but he does at Sox games.
I know what he means: the height offers a nice perspective. But this benefit is mostly canceled out by the yawning span between you and the field. Even Adam Dunn looks small. And the sound delay is disconcerting—the crack of the bat you hear in the second inning was the double in the first.
Bogira writes later in the story that Quinn was going over fundraising schedules. I asked Quinn about that when the story came out and he said he wasn’t doing fundraising stuff. He told me what he was actually doing, but it was a couple of months ago and I’ve since forgotten. I think it was bill lists.
* Anyway, that brings us to this Kurt Erickson column…
Quinn’s campaign manager Lou Bertuca sent out a fundraising appeal in which a lucky donor could win an afternoon at a Chicago White Sox game sitting in the stands with Illinois’ chief executive.
“This isn’t just a handshake and a photo op – this is a real opportunity to hang out with the governor of Illinois,” Bertuca wrote.
The letter noted that anyone who chips in $5 or more is automatically entered in the contest.
Because reporters don’t give money to politicians, I was about to close out the email.
Then I read the small print. It said, “No purchase, payment or contribution necessary to enter or win. Contributing will not improve chances of winning.”
Excellent, right? I clicked the link to enter and got this message: “Page not found.”
Oops.
Then again, I clicked the same link last week and it worked for me.
* And that brings us to the new Quinn campaign video…
Simon’s back on his game.
* And that brings us to this from Rep. Jeanne Ives…
Representative Ives is organizing a Health and Fitness Boot Camp for children in her district, ages 8-12.
Last year, the event was a great success! This year Ives has expanded the program to promote fitness throughout the summer.
I’m really excited about this event,” Ives told reporters last year. “It’s something I started doing just as a mom. Having been in the military, I knew my kids loved fitness and they loved to do it in a fun and exciting way. So we came out to Cantigny to build this bigger event about kid’s nutrition and kid’s health and fitness, which we hope to grow every year.”
This year, recruits will be able to pick up a fitness pass book at their local library, community center or Ives’ District Office. Recruits will use the pass book to track their fitness level over the summer by completing four fitness activities each week, which parents will sign off on in the passbook. Each completed week will be a raffle entry for prizes from local businesses. Parents are also encouraged to administer an initial fitness test at the beginning of the summer (optional). On August 15, those who have taken the initial assessment will re-test and if a recruit shows a 20% improvement in their fitness level they will be entered into a “Grand Raffle.”
Children can join the contest and fun at any time over the summer or just show up to participate in the Boot Camp on August 15.
At Ives’ Fitness and Health Boot Camp, recruits will participate in a variety of health and fitness events, including:
Complete an Obstacle Course by FTX Crossfit
Scale a Climbing Wall
Participate in a Fitness Test
Earn personalized, commemorative dog tags
Receive BMI testing and learn safe stretching from Advanced Healthcare Associates
Take part in basic First Aid Instruction from Cadence Health and Edward Hospital
Participate in activities from FORWARD of DuPage County
Receive samples of healthy snacks
First Aide provided by Superior Ambulance
Raffle Sponsors include:
Eagle Martial Arts
MOVES Dance Studio
Sports Authority
Sox tickets from Dan Proft, WLS-AM
I hope those Proft tickets are better than the ones we had back in the day.
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Simon responds to JBT story
Monday, Jul 21, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Remember the story last Wednesday about Comptroller Judy Baar Topinka talking to Gov. Pat Quinn about her hopes that her son would land a job at SIU? Topinka’s office insists she didn’t ask Quinn to help her son get the job. Quinn’s campaign says the governor didn’t understand what she was talking about.
Well, it took a while, but Sheila Simon’s comptroller campaign has finally responded…
“Only someone who has been a politician in Springfield for 30 years would show up at a bill signing to benefit the victims of tornado damage and ask for a job for a family member. The Office of Comptroller cannot be entrusted to a person who treats taxpayer-funded jobs like bargaining chips,” campaign chief Dave Mellet said.
* Simon also ran an ad on Facebook late last week…
Apparently, the Quinn/Simon breakup is now official.
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Caption contest!
Monday, Jul 21, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* My old buddy Lance Trover is a major Parrothead, so he proudly texted this photo of himself and Jimmy Buffett last night after running into the living legend at Shaw’s Crab House…
Lance is a spokesman for Bruce Rauner’s campaign. I asked him if he told Buffett who he worked for…
Haha. Left that part out.
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Breaking an NRI paradigm
Monday, Jul 21, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The Sun-Times makes a pretty strong case that a prevailing media paradigm is false…
Republicans repeatedly have called Gov. Pat Quinn’s Neighborhood Recovery Initiative anti-violence grant program from 2010 a “political slush fund” and a taxpayer-funded, get-out-the-vote effort.
But if the anti-violence program’s design truly was about investing public dollars to gin up enough votes for Quinn to win his election that year, a new, first-of-its-kind analysis by the Chicago Sun-Times found the alleged strategy may not have delivered as planned.
Yes, Quinn narrowly won in 2010. But the areas in Chicago and suburban Cook County that got anti-violence money under the program only helped pad the governor’s winning margin over Republican Bill Brady.
* The evidence…
In Chicago, the Quinn-Simon ticket registered a 2 percentage-point increase in city neighborhoods that got NRI funding compared with the 2006 Blagojevich-Quinn ticket.
By comparison, in city neighborhoods that didn’t receive Neighborhood Recovery Initiative funding, the Quinn-Simon ticket registered a 1.9 percentage point uptick over what Blagojevich and Quinn got in those same areas in 2006.
Go read the whole thing, including the charts. Kudos to the Sun-Times for digging so deeply into the numbers.
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Polling the “Rauner tax”
Monday, Jul 21, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* My weekly syndicated newspaper column…
“This morning,” 1,063 respondents were told the evening of July 17th during a Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll, “Republican candidate for governor Bruce Rauner released an economic plan for Illinois.
“That plan calls for a freeze on property taxes and rolling back the 2010 tax increase. It also implements a new tax on services, such as advertising, legal services, and mini-storage centers. We’d like to know whether this type of plan would make you more likely, or less likely to vote for him.”
Rauner had most certainly tested his service tax proposal backwards and forwards before presenting it to the public last week, so I figured it had to poll fairly well. It did.
The poll found that 53 percent said they’d be more likely to vote for Rauner, while just 32 percent said they’d be less likely to vote for him and 15 percent said it made no difference.
As we’ve discussed before, Rauner has struggled a bit with women, but they actually liked the idea more than men. 56 percent said the idea made them more likely to vote for Rauner, while just 28 percent said they were less likely. The male split was 47 percent more, 39 percent less.
The highest regional support for the plan came from the suburban collar counties, where Rauner did the best in the primary. 66 percent of collar county voters said the proposal made them more likely to vote for Rauner, while 25 percent said less. The split among Downstaters was 53-27, it was 49-38 among suburban Cook County voters and he was upside down in Chicago, where he always polls poorly, 32-50.
Just 17 percent of Republicans said they’d be less likely to vote for Rauner while 66 percent said they’d be more likely. Among independents, 56 percent were more likely and 29 percent were less likely to vote for him. And among Democrats, 33 percent were more likely while 53 percent less likely.
Why does this look so popular? Well, people hate that income tax hike and they hate their property taxes. On its face, this could look like a “magic bullet” to folks.
There are no magic bullets, of course. If there were, they would’ve already been used.
Rauner specified a mere $577 million in new annual revenues via his service tax, which is nowhere near the $8 billion he wants to give up from the income tax hike.
Rauner says he’d phase out that tax hike over four years, and he’s said he could accomplish this with economic growth. According to the state’s Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability, income tax revenue growth averaged just 6.8 percent between Fiscal Year 1998 and Fiscal Year 2013. Rauner wants to grow those revenues by almost 67 percent over just four years.
“Rauner’s plan would add more than a half-billion dollars to state coffers, but wouldn’t come close to replacing the $8 billion from the taxes he would roll back,” polling respondents were told. “Do you think the state can afford the Rauner plan?”
Illinoisans were split, with 41 percent of the respondents saying the state can afford it and 43 percent saying it can’t.
“They want the benefits of overall lower taxes, but doubt the viability,” said pollster Gregg Durham. The poll had a margin of error of +/-3 percent. 28 percent were mobile phone users.
And that second set of numbers might’ve been far worse had more specifics been used.
“Too bad [Rauner’s plan] is entirely phony and false and paid for by massive cuts to education,” texted Gov. Pat Quinn’s campaign spokesperson Brooke Anderson last week. “Wonder how that polls.”
Anderson rightly pointed out that the state budget includes around $16 billion in “non-mandated” expenditures – the rest is pretty much required and/or locked-in spending.
Without massive, unprecedented growth, Rauner would have to cut that $16 billion in spending in half - and education also makes up half of that $16 billion. “Talk about decimating public education - you’re pretty much eliminating it,” Anderson said, giving us a likely preview of the upcoming TV attack ads.
Not to mention the massive fiscal cliff created by this year’s state budget, which adds billions in deferred costs to next year’s budget. The only way to avoid that is to raise the rate back up to 5 percent after January 1st, when it’s scheduled to go down to 3.75 percent.
Rauner’s campaign refused to talk about specific phase-out percentages and timelines last week. But the cold hard reality is, that tax hike isn’t going away very soon, no matter what he says.
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Feds respond to Blagojevich filing
Friday, Jul 18, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* AP…
Prosecutors have responded to a new argument that former Gov. Rod Blagojevich submitted this week to a federal court considering his appeal. […]
Blagojevich’s lawyers say an April ruling by the high court found that soliciting contributions is corruption only when a politician makes explicit promises to take official action for a donation.
But prosecutors say that’s a misreading of the ruling in McCutcheon v. the Federal Election Commission. They say the high court didn’t conclude an exchange had to be explicitly stated to constitute corruption.
* The full response…
Pursuant to Fed. R. App. 28(j) and Seventh Circuit Rule 28(e), the government hereby responds to defendant-appellant Rod Blagojevich’s July 16, 2014 letter citing McCutcheon v. Federal Election Com’n, — U.S. —, 134 S.Ct. 1434 (2014) in support of his challenge to the jury instructions related to the quid pro quo element of criminal extortion in the context of campaign contributions. See Br. 51, quoting Tr. 5544.
As argued in the government’s brief at 55-57, the challenged instructions stated the applicable law consistently with this Court’s 2012 pattern instructions, and with the instruction approved in United States v. Giles, 246 F.3d 966, 971-73 (7th Cir. 1992). Where campaign contributions were involved, the instructions (like the instructions related to bribery and fraud) correctly conditioned a finding of guilt on proof that defendant attempted to exchange a specific requested exercise of his official power (including the Senate appointment, signing of the Racetrack bill, and implementation of the Medicaid reimbursement increase) for money or property in the form of such contributions.
In McCutcheon, the Supreme Court reaffirmed that campaign financing Constitutionally may be regulated to combat quid pro quo corruption or its appearance, but determined that the regulations challenged in that case— provisions of the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002 (BCRA) related to aggregate contribution limits—were not appropriately crafted to meet that permissible objective, or to avoid unnecessary abridgement of associational freedoms protected by the First Amendment. 134 S.Ct. at 1441-42, 1456, 1462. Nothing in the decision suggests that an exchange of contributions for specific official acts is quid pro quo corruption only if the arrangement is stated “explicitly” or expressly. Accordingly, the decision provides no support for Blagojevich’s argument on appeal.
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* Remember the America’s PAC radio ad we talked about the other day?…
Americas PAC has just released a new radio ad running across Illinois highlighting the wage gap between men and women working on Dick Durbin’s Senate staff […]
Analysis of Senate Staff payroll by the Washington Free Beacon found that in 2012 Durbin “paid men $13,063 more, a difference of 23 percent.” [Link http://freebeacon.com/politics/senate-dems-betray-lilly/]
“The average female on his staff was paid about 77 cents for every dollar earned by his male staffers,” Donelson said.
* Well, US Sen. Dick Durbin’s has contacted at least one radio station about it…
Quincy’s WTAD-AM, which is owned by STARadio along with Quincy Journal, has been running the ad. STARadio was contacted by someone representing Sen. Durbin.
“WTAD received an email and phone call from a firm representing Senator Durbin earlier in the week,” said STARadio VP/GM Mike Moyers. “A letter attached to the email implied that the commercial being aired by Americas PAC contained false information and that WTAD would be liable should we continue to air it. Sources provided by Americas PAC were checked and proved to be in line, so the commercial in question is still on the air.”
* America’s PAC response…
“If anything, we’ll increase the buy,” Donelson said. “And even if the stations knuckle under to the threats of Senator Durbin and his lawyers, Americas PAC will continue to run ads highlighting Senator Durbin’s and the President’s wage gap problems and hypocrisy. We’re scripting an even harder hitting ad already.”
* Here’s the ad, in case you’ve forgotten…
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* I have a feeling this is gonna become so commonplace that by late October it might not even be newsworthy. Rick Pearson…
Republican Bruce Rauner plowed $1.5 million more into his campaign for governor against Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn, newly filed reports with the State Board of Elections showed today.
The latest donation brings to nearly $8.1 million the amount of personal funds Rauner has given to his first-time bid for public office.
*** UPDATE *** From the Quinnsters…
Bruce Rauner Donates Another $1.5 Million to Himself
Rauner Continues Hiding Complete Income Tax Forms from Previous Three Years That Would Disclose Sources of Income to Public
CHICAGO – One day after proposing a tax plan that would decimate public education and create a whole new tax on services across Illinois, Bruce Rauner today contributed another $1.5 million to himself, bringing the grand total of Rauner’s mostly self-funded campaign to $8.1 billion.
However, despite calls from the media and Governor Pat Quinn to release his complete income tax return documents like other candidates have done, Rauner is continuing to hide the information that would shed light on his sources of income from the public. Governor Quinn, nominee for Lt. Governor Paul Vallas and even presidential candidate Mitt Romney released their complete income tax records.
Below is a statement from Quinn for Illinois Communications Director Brooke Anderson:
“Until Bruce Rauner releases his complete income tax returns, the public is left in the dark about how he made the millions of dollars he is now using to bankroll false television ads against Governor Quinn.
“The people of Illinois deserve to know the facts about their candidates’ finances.
“What exactly is Rauner hiding?”
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Arghh!!! The earworm!!! It burns!!!
Friday, Jul 18, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* “Thanks” to our commenter “soccermom,” I now have a near terminal case of George Michael-induced earworm.
I was gonna save this for later, but it must be done now in case some of the rest of y’all are suffering from the same condition.
* The late, great Johnny Winter. Turn it up so loud your co-workers complain…
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Personal PAC wants more answers
Friday, Jul 18, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From a press release…
Today, Personal PAC called on the Republican and Democratic candidates for Governor to publicly state their positions on the June 30, 2014 Hobby Lobby U.S. Supreme Court decision. In addition, Personal PAC wants to know if these candidates support legislative measures to address the horrible situation in Illinois that now allows for-profit employers to invoke a privately held religious objection in refusing to cover prescription birth control as part of their employees health insurance compensation package.
“In light of yesterday’s defeat in the U.S. Senate of the “Not Your Boss’ Business” Act to correct the disastrous Hobby Lobby decision, it is more critical than ever that candidates for the two highest offices in Illinois tell voters where they stand on addressing this issue at the state level,” said Terry Cosgrove, President and CEO of Personal PAC.
Personal PAC has sent each Democratic and Republican candidate for Governor and Lt. Governor the following four questions with a deadline of 5 p.m., Thursday, July 24th, 2014 for a response from each candidate. Cosgrove continued, “With upward of 96% of Illinois women using birth control at some point in their lives, 25% of whom for medical reasons such as controlling fibroid tumors, voters have a right to know who is standing with women in keeping their health care choices private and out of reach of their bosses.”
It is time to save birth control in Illinois and the referendum question on the November 4th ballot dealing with this issue will guide elected officials in adopting laws to put the decisions about birth control back in the hands of women. “It is hard to believe we even have to discuss women being allowed to have access to birth control in 2014” concluded Cosgrove.
* The four questions, with a couple of non-content edits to make it easier for us to read here…
1. Do you OPPOSE the U.S. Supreme Court ruling in the Hobby Lobby case?
2. Will you SIGN legislation containing these three provisions in order to reverse the impact of Hobby Lobby in Illinois and protect access to birth control in our state?
As a result of the serious threat to women’s health from the Hobby Lobby decision, legislation will be introduced in the Illinois General Assembly seeking to (1) require disclosure to current employees and job applicants to ensure that women know whether a particular employer refuses to provide full preventive health care coverage, including birth control; (2) ensure that employers cannot retaliate against employees who make reproductive health care decisions that conflict with the employer’s beliefs; and (3) ensure that low-income women without adequate health insurance coverage have access to affordable birth control through safety net providers.
3. Will you vote “YES” on this ballot question?
The following referendum will appear on the November 2014 general election ballot: “Shall any health insurance plan in Illinois that provides prescription drug coverage be required to include prescription birth control as part of that coverage?” The purpose of this referendum is to demonstrate strong public support for full access to birth control and for the three provisions described above.
4. Will you publicly state your SUPPORT for the birth control ballot measure?
Obviously, Gov. Quinn will be answering to Personal PAC’s liking. I’ll let you know if Rauner comes up with a response.
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Rate Rauner’s new social media ads
Friday, Jul 18, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* “This is slightly embarrassing” wrote a friend of mine this morning…
I had an ear worm of this song, and decided I might be able to cure it by listening to the whole thing.
So I went to YouTube — and got a Rauner ad?
Weird….
The song was “I’m Never Gonna Dance Again” by George Michael. Don’t click here. Seriously, I mean it. Don’t. I accidentally let the thing play after the ad and now I’ve got the same horrific ear worm.
Uuuuuggghhhhh!!!
* Rauner’s campaign explains via e-mail…
Bruce Rauner’s campaign launched a new digital campaign highlighting some of Pat Quinn’s biggest broken promises as governor.
The effort features targeted online advertising and encourages folks to add to the conversation on social media by using the hashtag #PatQuinnMoments.
“With massive tax hikes and a terrible economy, Illinoisans can’t celebrate Pat Quinn’s time as governor,” Rauner spokesman Mike Schrimpf said. “Pat Quinn is simply a champion tax raiser and made Illinois the Midwest’s leader in lost jobs.”
* “Pat Quinn’s Great Moments: Taxes”…
Script…
Great moments in Pat Quinn history
He promised not to permanently raise taxes
Now Quinn is trying to keep his 67% tax hike forever
Pat Quinn champion tax raiser
* “Pat Quinn’s Greatest Moments: Jobs”…
Script…
Great moments in Pat Quinn history
He promised to make jobs his number one priority
Under Quinn Illinois led the Midwest in job losses and unemployment
Pat Quinn #1 in unemployment
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Spread it out, lower the rates
Friday, Jul 18, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Bruce Rauner’s “plan” to lower income taxes and kinda sorta replace a few dollars of them with a new sales tax on services is part of a pattern among Republican governors. Here’s a New York Times story from January of 2013…
Republican governors are moving aggressively to cut personal and corporate income taxes, including proposals that would increase reliance on state sales taxes, setting up ambitious experiments in tax reform that could shape what is possible on a national level. […]
In Louisiana, Gov. Bobby Jindal is pushing to repeal the state’s personal and corporate income taxes and make up the lost revenue through higher sales taxes. Gov. Dave Heineman of Nebraska iscalling for much the same thing in his state. Gov. Sam Brownback of Kansas wants to keep in place what was supposed to be a temporary increase in the state sales tax to help pay for his plan to lower and eventually end his state’s income tax.
Along the way these governors are taking small first steps into a debate over what kind of tax system most encourages growth in a 21st-century economy. In particular they are focusing attention on the idea, long championed by conservatives but accepted up to a point by economists of all stripes, that the economy would be better served by focusing taxation on consumption rather than on income.
Taxing consumption has the potential to lift economic growth by encouraging more savings and investment. But the shift could also increase inequality by reducing taxes predominantly for the wealthy, who spend a smaller share of their income than middle- and lower-income people.
“The question of whether we should tax income or whether we should tax spending is really a proxy for a different debate,” said Joseph Henchman, vice president for state projects at the Tax Foundation, a conservative-leaning research organization. “Everyone agrees we’ll get more growth with consumption taxes. It’s just that some people prioritize fairness.”
If you “encourage more savings and investment” through taxation, then how does that inject any demand into the economy? Demand drives growth. By their own logic, they’d drive consumption down, which would decrease demand, which would decrease growth.
* More…
For Mr. Jindal and other Republican governors who are considering a presidential run in 2016, there are obvious political benefits to having a robust income tax-cutting record to present to conservative primary voters.
But Democrats say the approach would lead to cutbacks in education, health care and other vital services while shifting relatively more of the tax burden to those who can least afford it.
“These aren’t pro-growth policies — they’re shell games that reward the wealthiest Americans at the expense of everyone else,” said Danny Kanner, a spokesman for the Democratic Governors Association.
Cutting a billionaire’s income taxes while raising sales/service taxes on the broader economy would indeed help that billionaire.
* Even so, I generally favor broader taxation at lower rates. Rauner’s service tax idea is just a first step. It could be broadened much further to take advantage of that sector’s historic annual growth. But that ought to be accompanied by a lower sales tax rate. It doesn’t have to be revenue neutral, but people should be given a break overall.
* And the same goes for income taxes. According to the Civic Federation…
The individual income tax base is expected to grow at a rate of only 1.9% compared to the retirement income growth rate of 6.5%. […]
The Illinois Comptroller estimates that this exemption of federally taxable retirement income reduced the State’s individual income tax revenues by $2.0 billion in FY2012.
So, what does Illinois do? It taxes slow-growth individual income at 5 percent and doesn’t tax high-growth retirement income at all. That doesn’t make sense.
Spread it out, lower the rate.
Easier said than done, of course. Retirees by definition have a lot of extra time on their hands for things like screaming at their legislators.
* But, if anyone has any real guts, they might wanna challenge the constitutionality of this retirement income exemption. From the Constitution…
A tax on or measured by income shall be at a non-graduated rate. At any one time there may be no more than one such tax imposed by the State for State purposes on individuals and one such tax so imposed on corporations.
We’re only supposed to have one personal, non-graduated income tax rate for individuals in Illinois, but we actually have two, and one of them is decidedly graduated (at the rate of zero).
/rant
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Keeping the story alive
Friday, Jul 18, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* So far, at least, the Republicans on the Legislative Audit Commission have found nothing like a “smoking gun” to claim any illegal political actions by top-level Quinn administration officials on the governor’s anti-violence initiative. They have a couple thousand government e-mails, but nothing that shows anything spectacular.
So, they shifted gears a bit yesterday…
After Thursday’s vote, Barickman shifted focus to a cache of 2,300 NRI-related emails Quinn’s office turned over to the audit commission last Friday in response to a June 25 request.
Specifically, Barickman and Mautino asked for emails, letters and any memoranda related to the rollout and implementation of NRI between March 2010 through September 2012. The request targeted former Quinn chief of staff Jack Lavin, former Central Management Services director Malcolm Weems, former Quinn deputy chief of staff Toni Irving, former Quinn senior advisor Billy Ocasio, former Commerce and Economic Opportunity Director Warren Ribley, former DCEO chief operating officer Andrew Ross, and Reshma Desai, the former director of grant programs for the now-defunct Illinois Violence Prevention Authority.
Barickman voiced concern “about the potential that the governor’s office didn’t fully comply with our request for emails,” noting Quinn’s office asserted “a blanket privilege claim” to withhold some documents, though the senator said he was uncertain about which documents may have been protected by the governor’s office.
Barickman also questioned whether the governor’s office may have “significantly limited their scope” in searching for emails “in a way that doesn’t comply with our original request.”
Notice that he said the “potential” that the governor’s office didn’t fully comply. The administration’s response…
“Those not provided on the disc were privileged attorney-client communications between state employees and state attorneys either seeking or providing legal advice,” Quinn spokeswoman Katie Hickey said.
The Republicans did mention Wednesday that it appeared former Quinn chief of staff Jack Lavin had forwarded some state e-mails regarding the initiative to a private e-mail account. But, again, it’s just wispy smoke.
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Time’s running out fast
Friday, Jul 18, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The deadline for the Illinois State Board of Elections to certify the November ballot is August 22nd - 36 days from now. That’s 21 work days, counting today and the 22nd.
So, that’s why yesterday’s Illinois Supreme Court decision to not take direct appeal of Bruce Rauner’s term limits ballot initiative is so important.
Cook County Circuit Court Judge Mary Mikva issued her initial ruling kicking Rauner’s initiative off the ballot on June 27th - three weeks ago today. The Supremes took their sweet time to consider direct appeal.
Rauner’s group inexplicably didn’t file any appellate motions before today, so it now has less than 21 working days to get this thing motioned, heard and decided at the appellate level and then motioned, heard and decided by the Supremes. They’re gonna need to get that ballot certification date postponed if they have any hope here.
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Raoul utterly perplexed at story
Friday, Jul 18, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Sneed…
In the wake of Cook County Board Chairman Toni Preckwinkle’s hasty exit as a possible mayoral contender, Sneed is told there is a move to fill the void with two male contenders in the black community: State Sen. Kwame Raoul and former Illinois Senate President Emil Jones Jr.
Some folks might actually be pushing this, but it’s ludicrous on its face. For instance, buried way down…
On Wednesday, the Sun-Times reported that Raoul had taken himself out of the running.
I called Kwame today and he said he’d been asked by a Sun-Times reporter if he was interested and he categorically declared he was not. And he was not amused with today’s story. He didn’t put himself out there and he’s not interested in running, so he couldn’t have “taken himself out of the running.”
So, forget that story.
* And Emil? Really?…
Sneed also hears a movement to draft former Illinois political powerhouse Emil Jones Jr., into the high-stakes race against Mayor Rahm Emanuel is in the works.
“Our intent is to tamp down support for CTU President Karen Lewis for mayor because there is no way she can bring the black community together on the schools issue to develop a black consensus,” said a major supporter of Jones supporter who asked not to be identified — but is well-known in the political structure of the African-American community.
“We need someone who can win,” the source said. “Emil was prominently mentioned in the mayoral election. He just needs to be cajoled and convinced.”
The man is 78 years old. He’s an old school politico. His time is long past.
If they do run him it will solely be to split the black vote against Lewis. And that’s what this is all about. Reelecting Rahm.
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Today’s number: 13,000
Friday, Jul 18, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Uh-oh…
Thousands of Chicago drivers have been tagged with $100 red light fines they did not deserve, targeted by robotic cameras during a series of sudden spikes in tickets that city officials say they cannot explain, a Tribune investigation has found.
The Tribune’s analysis of more than 4 million tickets issued since 2007 and a deeper probe of individual cases revealed clear evidence that the deviations in Chicago’s network of 380 cameras were caused by faulty equipment, human tinkering or both.
More…
A 10-month Tribune investigation documented more than 13,000 questionable tickets at 12 intersections that experienced the most striking spikes; similar patterns emerged at dozens of other intersections responsible for tens of thousands more tickets. Among the key findings:
Cameras that for years generated just a few tickets daily suddenly caught dozens of drivers a day. One camera near the United Center rocketed from generating one ticket per day to 56 per day for a two-week period last summer before mysteriously dropping back to normal.
Tickets for so-called rolling right turns on red shot up during some of the most dramatic spikes, suggesting an unannounced change in enforcement. One North Side camera generated only a dozen tickets for rolling rights out of 100 total tickets in the entire second half of 2011. Then, over a 12-day spike, it spewed 563 tickets — 560 of them for rolling rights.
Many of the spikes were marked by periods immediately before or after when no tickets were issued — downtimes suggesting human intervention that should have been documented. City officials said they cannot explain the absence of such records.
Go read the whole thing. Chicagoans tend to hate those red-light cams. If what the Tribune alleges is true, you can add one more horrible problem that Rahm Emanuel’s reelection campaign will have to deal with.
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Spinning and counter-spinning
Friday, Jul 18, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Most entertaining spin of the day on Bruce Rauner’s new tax proposal…
Gov. Pat Quinn’s campaign quickly blasted the plan as one that would send the state into a deeper hole than the estimated $6 billion deficit that will face the next governor. The camp also criticized the multi-millionaire candidate for proposing a sales tax expansion, saying it would hurt working families and small business.
“Only someone with nine homes would propose taxing trailer parks,” said Quinn spokeswoman Brooke Anderson.
Heh.
Rauner’s plan does, indeed, mention “trailer parks.” However, they screwed up the language…
Trailer parks - overnight
Those aren’t “trailer parks,” they’re RV campgrounds. So, Brooke’s attack is half valid, and the Rauner campaign brought it on themselves.
* Another bit of spin, this time by Rauner…
Rauner also said that new TV ads that attack him for wanting to tax Social Security and other retirement income are false. The ads were launched Wednesday by Illinois Freedom PAC, an outside group funded by a coalition of unions that opposed Rauner in the Republican primary.
“Gov. Quinn is creating another false spin. I have never, ever said I want to tax Social Security, that’s baloney,” Rauner said. “And as you can see from our plan here, we have no plan to tax retirement income. They are trying to create a false argument.”
* What the TV ad actually says…
Now Rauner says he’s open to taxing our Social Security and retirement income…making it harder for Illinois families to get by.
* From a March 14, 2014 Sun-Times story entitled “Rauner, Rutherford won’t rule out taxing retirement income”…
Earlier this month, the Civic Federation recommended that Gov. Pat Quinn and state lawmakers consider taxing retirement income to help lift the state out of its multibillion-dollar budgetary shortfall, an idea that drew immediate opposition from AARP of Illinois.
Rauner did not categorically rule out taxing retirement income when asked Thursday night.
“I don’t have position on that yet. What I would recommend we do is look at our entire tax code in Illinois, look at every tax and every tax base and every rate and then compare ourselves to other well-run states that we compete with both in the Midwest and around the country,” Rauner said.
“Look at what we tax, what we don’t tax and at what rates. The critical thing is we have got to ease the overall tax burden, the overall spending burden and make our tax code as pro-growth as possible because the real answer to our financial problems is growth,” Rauner said.
Probably close enough for horseshoes and hand grenades. Plus, it’s the Illinois Freedom PAC, not Quinn making the charge.
* And, finally, FactCheck.org got a bit ahead of the facts…
Republican Bruce Rauner falsely claims in a TV ad that Illinois leads the Midwest in “job losses” under Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn. In fact, Illinois has experienced job growth — albeit small — since Quinn took office.
They continue…
Rauner’s latest TV ad, titled “Remember This,” shows Quinn promising to create 400,000 jobs and then cuts to a narrator who says: “Under Quinn Illinois leads the Midwest in job losses.” Those same words are superimposed over an image of an empty warehouse that emphasizes the “job losses.” But the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which the ad cites as the source of this claim, shows Illinois had 5,803,600 total non-farm jobs in January 2009, when Quinn took office, and had 5,804,000 in May 2014, which is the most recent month with available employment data. That represents a net gain of 400 total jobs under Quinn as governor.
Certainly, 400 jobs in a state as large as Illinois (population 12.9 million) is not a lot. In fact, we calculate that the state had the lowest job growth during that period of the 12 states considered to be part of the Midwest by the BLS. Still, Illinois saw total job gains, not losses, and the state’s unemployment rate is down from 8 percent to 7.5 percent under Quinn.
How did the Rauner campaign arrive at “job losses”? By cherry-picking BLS data.
According to a document provided by the Rauner campaign to support the ad, the “job losses” claim refers to a drop in private sector jobs only in 2014 — a five-month period — not Quinn’s entire time in office. The campaign document says that Illinois has lost more than 26,000 private sector jobs so far in this calendar year. That’s accurate. Illinois had 4,996,800 private sector jobs in December 2013 and that number has shrunk to 4,970,500 in May 2014, a loss of 26,300 jobs. The Rauner campaign also is correct in saying that this is the largest job loss of any state in the Midwest during this period.
Meh. If Illinois does indeed lead the Midwest in job losses this year, then that’s a valid hit by Rauner. Period.
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