Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar

Thursday, Oct 30, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* We Ask America has a new turnout effect calculator. It looks pretty cool, and it ought to because I had a little input into how it was built. From the explanation…

The calculator splits Illinois into four regions (Chicago, Suburban Cook Co., Collar Counties and Downstate) and we preset the turnout in each of those areas to match the 2010 midterm turnout. Of course, you can change those anyway you want. We’ve also populated the vote splits with our latest poll results, but you can wipe that out and put your own numbers. After you twiddle the numbers, click the submit button to see what it does to the final results. The whole thing is designed to fit on an iPad, and we included a RESET button to put all the numbers back to presets.

With the Illinois governor’s race as tight as it seems, this shows how tweaking a few numbers effects the final result. Instructions are on the page (just click on the INSTRUCTIONS button).

Have fun.

Click here to try it out. Post your result in comments and the person who is the closest to all three candidate results will win a steak dinner with Gregg Durham.

Just kidding.

Or not. We’ll see how Gregg reacts to this post.

* Meanwhile, subscribers already know that I’ve endorsed TrackBill, a really well-designed bill tracking system. It constantly scans everything over at LIS and will text or e-mail you right after any sort of legislation is introduced or moves that relates to your interests.

Very cool stuff, but - and this is important - make sure to click on their ad in the center column or click here so this website gets the credit. I love the product, but a guy’s gotta eat.

* Back to politics, the folks at Bing.com would like you to know that they have a fancy new election forecaster. Click here to see how their system sees the Illinois governor’s race playing out.

Have you seen any cool new political apps out there?

28 Comments

- Norseman - Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 4:20 pm:
Pretty cool.

TrackBill looks like it would be a helpful tool for lobbyists and organizations. It’s a little pricey for us lowly retirees. We’ll have to stick to the old fashion way.

- Bobbysox - Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 4:23 pm:
Quinn: 47.30 %
Rauner: 46.60 %
Grimm: 6.10 %

- Gregg Durham - Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 4:30 pm:
What’s second place? Two dinners?

- Oswego Willy - Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 4:32 pm:
Yikes!

Going Chicago 45%(52 previous), suburban Cook 53%,(50) collars 53%,(50), downstate 42%(47)..

Got: Quinn 47.92, Rauner 45.84, Grimm 6.24

I thought 48/45/7

Spooky

- circularfiringsquad - Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 4:37 pm:
Like the Quinn Wins
Since the GOPies love this techno stuff guessing they will sit home while Ds knock on doors and that decides election

- Reality Check - Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 4:37 pm:
Not an app, but there have been some thought-provoking posts here recently - recommended for geeks: http://illinoiselectiondata.com/

- Casual Observer - Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 4:41 pm:
Q - 48.18
R - 45.39
G - 6.43
I don’t see any of the regions breaking 50% turnout. That’s what’s really sad.

- AC - Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 4:55 pm:
Quinn: 48.60 %
Rauner: 45.04 %
Grimm: 6.36 %

Based on slightly better weather in Chicago than elsewhere in the state. Of course I think the actual results will be closer.

- 47th Ward - Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 4:59 pm:
I must be doing something wrong. I keep tweaking the numbers in ways I think will be bad for Quinn, but when I click submit, he still has a lead.

What seems harder though is tweaking the numbers enough (while still plausible) to get Quinn north of 50%. That’s a real challenge.

Hope this is accurate. If so, it bodes well for Quinn.

- A modest proposal - Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 4:59 pm:
Quinn: 47.35 %
Rauner: 48.88 %
Grimm: 3.77 %

I don’t think Grimm gets as much as everyone else thinks.

- Oswego Willy - Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 5:00 pm:
===I must be doing something wrong. I keep tweaking the numbers in ways I think will be bad for Quinn, but when I click submit, he still has a lead.===

You said that, I didn’t

- Darkhorse - Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 5:06 pm:
It’s been a while since my call of the 2008 SA race in Cook County which I hit exactly. Let’s see if I can keep my record correct:

Q 46.81
R 46.17
G 7.02

But the real winners will be the election lawyers of Quinn and Rauner. And yes, you can bet they have been retained.

- Abe the Babe - Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 5:09 pm:
==I must be doing something wrong. I keep tweaking the numbers in ways I think will be bad for Quinn, but when I click submit, he still has a lead.==

I’m just waiting for the tin foil hats to now claim that “even the Apps are rigged!!”

- Casual Observer - Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 5:10 pm:
“I must be doing something wrong. I keep tweaking the numbers in ways I think will be bad for Quinn, but when I click submit, he still has a lead.”

Bruce? Is that you?

- VM - Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 5:11 pm:
(Sorry if this is a repeat, first time did not post.)

Cool. I put in 41% for Chicago, 45% for suburban Cook, 47% for the collars, and 38% downstate — assuming the TV ads are taking their toll in turnout.

That results in
Quinn 47.82%
Rauner 45.85%
Grimm 6.33%

- Gooner - Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 5:19 pm:
Chicago: 50
Suburban: 51
Collar: 52
Downstate: 48

Result: Quinn 48.31
Rauner: 45.31
Grimm: 6.38

- chi - Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 5:28 pm:
I think city and downstate turnout will go up because of Rauner: he really has government workers in a tizzy.

- Old News - Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 5:31 pm:
Ok so stupid question. How does other state wide candidates fare based on this app? Are you saying then based on turnout JBT and Cross also lose?
Please enlighten me

- Lottie O'Neill - Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 6:10 pm:
Quinn: 46.65 %
Rauner: 46.52 %
Grimm: 6.83 %

@CasualObserver 4:41pm — Agreed.

- Mama - Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 6:25 pm:
What? No numbers for Willy?

- 618662dem - Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 6:59 pm:
Quinn 48.52
Rauner 45.11
Grimms 6.37

- The Captain - Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 7:18 pm:
Hmm, something about this looks familiar, very familiar.

If these voter reg drives are anywhere near successful you’ll likely see the turnout numbers change quite a bit without actually seeing much change in the vote share by region.

- Downstate Libertarian - Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 8:09 pm:
In looking at it, it is a great concept. I haven’t seen many polls giving Grimm such high numbers downstate.

Quinn: 47.57 %
Rauner: 47.27 %
Grimm: 5.16 %

- Ducky LaMoore - Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 8:09 pm:
Quinn: 48.71 %
Rauner: 45.10 %
Grimm: 6.19 %

In reality I think it will be Grimm-2, Rauner +2. But not a game changer. I just don’t think a libertarian in Illinois gets 6%.

- Old News - Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 8:12 pm:
How about the other races as I asked earlier

- Precinct Captain - Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 8:22 pm:
Chicago: 50
Suburbs: 52
Collars: 53
Downstate: 47

Default poll percentages

Quinn: 48.04
Rauner: 45.60
Grimm: 6.36

- A modest proposal - Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 9:42 pm:
===How Bout The Other Races===

You can apply them to this app. Just think of JBT as Bruce and Sheila as Quinn and adjust the percentages and turnout accordingly…

- Jerry Hubbard - Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 12:17 am:
Rauner 49
Quinn 47
Lib. 4

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