News from the front
Saturday, Nov 1, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From a reader…
I’m sure you’re getting all kinds of these reports, but Rauner’s GOTV targeting is puzzling. I was at my father-in-law’s house in Bradley. He and his neighbor both have voted in the last 3 Dem primaries and have Kate Cloonen signs in their yards.
A Rauner “volunteer” knocked on both their doors and asked who they were voting for in the Governor’s race. Just really odd to me that they’re knocking on Dem doors with what appears to be an ID question the weekend before the election. She clearly was working off a list as well.
This has going on for quite a while now and I’m puzzled as well. The Rauner folks clearly believe that they can flip lots of Democratic voters to their guy.
But an ID canvass a few days before the election is, indeed, odd.
Either they’re brilliant or stupid. We’ll know Tuesday night (or Wednesday, depending).
* On the other side of the fence, the AFL-CIO sent this out today…
Michael T. Carrigan, President of the Illinois AFL-CIO announced the election strategy for labor. The Illinois AFL-CIO’s Labor 2014 program has already contacted more than 200,000 voters in key areas with personal phone calls and home visits and will include hundreds of union volunteers canvassing the state by going door-to-door and making phone calls this weekend and continuing through Election Day.
“Our major focus for these midterm elections is to ensure justice and equality for workers by getting voters to the polls early,” Carrigan said. “Illinois is facing a critical moment and we are doing everything we can to re-elect Governor Pat Quinn, as well as focusing on sending pro-worker candidates to Congress and the State Capitol.”
Thousands of union volunteers are hitting the streets and phones over the final weekend to interact directly with the voters, communicating the stakes of this election for working people. This weekend’s mobilization caps the Illinois AFL-CIO’s months-long campaign to ensure workers have a voice on Election Day.
“Labor’s unified efforts are sure to be felt throughout the state for years to come. We have been going beyond our member households to reach working people in every corner of Illinois, because we care about all working families,” Carrigan continued. “This is what labor does best – talk one-on-one and organize around the issues. This is something that out-of-state billionaires trying to buy this election aren’t able to do and why they will be wasting their money – because Illinois is not for sale.”
* Meanwhile, in RICO…
Four days before Election Day, a local Republican Party leader filed a lawsuit Friday afternoon against the Rock Island County Clerk in an effort to get the clerk’s office to recalibrate every voting machine before Nov. 4.
“I don’t believe it’s an intentional effort to steal the election, and I don’t think there’s any conspiracy, but there’s a problem with the machines, and they need to be checked,” William Bloom, Rock Island County Republican chairman, said in telephone interview.
Bloom added that he has heard from more than 30 voters who tried to vote for a Republican candidate only to have the Democrat selected on the machine’s touch screen.
On Thursday, Bloom threatened to take legal action against Rock Island County Clerk Karen Kinney if she failed to respond to his concerns regarding the voting machines by noon Friday.
In a news release Bloom sent to the media Thursday, he also asked that a Democratic and Republican judge, of the Republican Party’s choosing, observe the recalibration process with a Republican poll watcher.
- walker - Saturday, Nov 1, 14 @ 1:14 pm:
If you have your base locked in, go to every voter’s door. Big if.
- low level - Saturday, Nov 1, 14 @ 1:16 pm:
Rauner GOTV - sounds about the dumbest thing I’ve ever heard. Did his consultants come up with that?
- Concerned - Saturday, Nov 1, 14 @ 1:16 pm:
So Rauner’s GOTV campaign is designed to win him the Democratic primary? All while he and his wife do their level best to annoy the conservative base of the GOP (since he already won the GOP primary, he must figure those voters have nowhere else to go).
That must be some new-fangled, private equity kind of campaign strategy.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Saturday, Nov 1, 14 @ 1:25 pm:
Give the GOP a break.
They are new at this.
- MIMI - Saturday, Nov 1, 14 @ 1:29 pm:
Great, go to democrats house and encourage to vote against your candidate- new concept
- Snucka - Saturday, Nov 1, 14 @ 1:32 pm:
If you have your base “locked in”, you do whatever you can to get them out to vote. Under no circumstances should voter ID or persuasion be taking place on November 1. You should have your pluses identified and you should be working to get them to their Early Voting location.
- Some Guy - Saturday, Nov 1, 14 @ 1:47 pm:
Figure this was the best place to mention this given that the title is “News from the front” — Nate Silver has chimed in.
The IL governor’s race is one of six governor races with two candidates within 1% of each other by his reckoning. He puts Quinn 1% up, with a 59% chance to win overall.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/governors-forecasts-a-lot-of-close-races/
- Oswego Willy - Saturday, Nov 1, 14 @ 1:52 pm:
Rauner GOTV?
Face. Palm.
Dopes.
- low level - Saturday, Nov 1, 14 @ 1:53 pm:
You know, maybe we are just the “political classes” and really don’t know the new way.
Chip Englander - go for it. Continue, please. Clearly you’re onto something. I don’t get it yet, but that really doesn’t mean anything as I’m only a relatively low level bureaucrat - or a Walter Mitty as a former colleague said onetime. Take your pick.
- Oswego Willy - Saturday, Nov 1, 14 @ 1:55 pm:
“If we could, we want you to waste your time. Just knock on any door, remind them it’s Election Day, we’ll see how it goes.”
I am now embarrassed FOR them.
- Oswego Willy - Saturday, Nov 1, 14 @ 1:59 pm:
“But, but, but…EVERYBODY loves Bruce. Ask Bruce he’ll tell ya.”
In the Oswego Willy Ground Game lingo, this is called “Running a Ground Game in the Ground, and running the engine without any oil.”
- Ray - Saturday, Nov 1, 14 @ 2:00 pm:
If they are working out of the Rauner offices (which doesn’t sound like this person is), then they are definitely doing it wrong. The name of the game is targeting Republicans at this point. This is an outlier example if anything.
- D - Saturday, Nov 1, 14 @ 2:04 pm:
As someone who has been involved in campaigns since the 60’s, including running compaigns statewide, this GOTV process being run by the Rauner makes no sense. You leave your sinners alone, hoping that they forget Tuesay is election day.
- Oswego Willy - Saturday, Nov 1, 14 @ 2:10 pm:
Welcome to the Bruce Rauner canvassing class.
This is how we want you to record your voter interactions;
If the voter answers the door? Plus
If the voter takes literature? Plus.
If the voter says “No” to you, make that an undecided, they just need to “wake up”
If they say they are a Democrat, mark them a Plus, avid circle the name so we can remind them to vote on Tursday.
Here is the biggie; if they actually say they are voting for Pat Quinn, thus is critical, as them if they want a ride to the polls, so we can try to persuade them as we drive them to vote. Those voters are a Plus-Plus.
If you have any Minuses, just erase those and make them Pluses too, we want data entry to be easy.
Thanks for volunteering, and just mark all on your sheets Pluses and grab a donut if you have to leave, it just doesn’t matter anyway.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Saturday, Nov 1, 14 @ 2:11 pm:
I gotta wonder since the term was put in quotes whether these “volunteers” are actually paid canvassers.
Rich?
- Ray - Saturday, Nov 1, 14 @ 2:23 pm:
Yeah Rich anyone with any knowledge of the campaign operations knows this person probably wasn’t being run out of the field offices and therefore doesn’t represent their work.
- Anonymoose - Saturday, Nov 1, 14 @ 2:39 pm:
I bet Rauner identified Quinn voters do get picked up by American Limo courtesy of the Rauner campaign. All Quinn voters should wait for the confirming phone call from OW or American Limo.
- Adlai - Saturday, Nov 1, 14 @ 2:59 pm:
Is there any actual evidence that this guy WASN’T from a Rauner FO? Besides “I hope”?
This is actually consistent with what we’ve seen of their mail strategy.
- Then again... - Saturday, Nov 1, 14 @ 3:04 pm:
Guessing all the commenters on here have only knocked doors based on traditional primary-based IDs.
In the new world of micro-targeted consumer data, this kind of thing happens from time to time. If 85% of a group of people are estimated to be GOP voters, Rauner is dropping all those people in the bucket.
A suppression should have been done to eliminate this particular Hard D from the walk universe, but sometimes people slip through the cracks.
Or maybe this person told a phone banker in July their biggest concern was high property taxes? Or that they were considering Bruce Rauner? Also possible the person is lying about which primaries they voted in. That’s not exactly uncommon.
Breathe, people.
- Oswego Willy - Saturday, Nov 1, 14 @ 3:17 pm:
===Or maybe this person told a phone banker in July their biggest concern was high property taxes? Or that they were considering Bruce Rauner? Also possible the person is lying about which primaries they voted in. That’s not exactly uncommon.===
If you are just figuring these things out the Saturday before the election - “You’re doing it wrong.” Just saying, lol.
Too little too late to be in that mode.
- Oswego Willy - Saturday, Nov 1, 14 @ 3:19 pm:
- Anonymoose -
You still want the Kifowit sign? I had to head East today, loads of Kifowit signs.
- D - Saturday, Nov 1, 14 @ 3:32 pm:
The Again; a good pct walker uses the Primary ID as a foundation tool in one’s walk. Ideally, you would use a 10 year canvass sheet which would give you 5 primaries worth of ID. You would want to knock on every non - ID house in your first sweep thru the pct. On your second go thru you stop at all still questionables again. On the final wekend you hit all + and ++ houses. On election day you make sure all of your +and ++’s vote and you also remind your ?’s to vote.
You forget about the - and - - ’s…..
- low level - Saturday, Nov 1, 14 @ 4:25 pm:
D- this is the new way. We’re dinosaurs. These days you go to a house with signs for a legislative candidate of the opposite party, even though you are funding her opponent, and knock in the door.
Maybe Chip “the Genuis” Englander will write a book on the new methods and instruct us all? He sure has made a name for himself in Illinois.
- A. Nonymous - Saturday, Nov 1, 14 @ 6:48 pm:
Not just canvassing but mail too. My wife (+4 D) got what looked like a very boilerplate mailer — positive “Vince” and Diana Rauner on one side and black, negative newspaper quotes against Quinn on the other.
The quotes were from our local papers so I’m wondering if he did it as a variable list mailing based on our zip code.
He’s got the money to burn.
- Anonymoose - Saturday, Nov 1, 14 @ 6:55 pm:
OW, thanks. I guess I have to get out more. I travelled Ogden, 59 and New York. Her opponent Bansal’s signs are everywhere. Do the Kifowit signs blend in? Are they small? Is there a special subdivision sporting Kifowit signs?
- Oswego Willy - Saturday, Nov 1, 14 @ 9:02 pm:
Look at houses that have For Sale signs.
If they’re empty, a sign went up.
Old. Trick!
You’re not looking where voters are.
- Publius - Sunday, Nov 2, 14 @ 12:06 am:
Had a guy walking my parents precinct for Rauner today. He knocked on their door and they have a Quinn sign, Bustos and Durbin in their yard. So yes the GOP GOTV is messed up.
- Louis G Atsaves - Sunday, Nov 2, 14 @ 12:17 pm:
I dunno. This election cycle, like past ones, I have been knocking on Democrat doors, not just Republicans. I have also been knocking on doors of new voters, and those who never vote in a primary.
The ridicule when a campaign worker knocks on the door of someone who is part of the opposition party seems a little misplaced. How can you expand your voting universe if you stay within your universe? I love approaching homes with Democrat yard signs. Gives me an idea of what they are about.
As to GOTV activities, when I tell voters “I want everyone to vote” they appreciate that and at least in Highland Park, don’t slam their door in my face, as they did a decade ago, Softens that GOP false image that was well crafted by devious Democrats into a “Republicans hate everyone, females, minorities, children, seniors, gays, poor, middle class, etc. etc.”
Get out there and bang on a few doors of those who have slightly different or different viewpoints. It is a learning experience if you take their comments seriously and apply them in a positive way. If you flip one out of 20, you are doing your job.
- The Future - Sunday, Nov 2, 14 @ 12:40 pm:
Louis: Why do you waste your time in Highland Park or in Glencoe (where New Trier has no precinct captains) Get your GOP voters to the polls like you have done successfully.
- Oswego Willy - Sunday, Nov 2, 14 @ 1:00 pm:
===The ridicule when a campaign worker knocks on the door of someone who is part of the opposition party seems a little misplaced. How can you expand your voting universe if you stay within your universe? I love approaching homes with Democrat yard signs. Gives me an idea of what they are about.===
“Democrat” lol.
Look, it’s important to knock on every door, not the weekend before. That is ignorant to the ideal of an effective GOTV in the last weekend.
You knock on all doors in July, even the first weekend in September, maybe…
Not the LAST weekend.
Nope, no way. Reminding minuses to vote against you.
Defeats the purpose of the last weekend push.
- Louis G Atsaves - Sunday, Nov 2, 14 @ 10:20 pm:
The Future: Are you telling me there are no Republicans in Highland Park?
- Mighty M. Mouse - Monday, Nov 3, 14 @ 12:43 am:
===- Oswego Willy - Saturday, Nov 1, 14 @ 1:52 pm:
Rauner GOTV?
Face. Palm.
Dopes.===
“Houston, we’ve had a problem here”
Yeah, I think they have some problems in Winnetka.