My gut says nationally it will be a huge win for Republicans. Will take senate majority very easily. Locally, Dold will defeat Schneider, and unfortunately the state as a whole is just too blue for Rauner to take home.
- Almost the Weekend - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 10:50 am:
Bad Day for Dems, if the election was a week earlier I think they would have pulled it out.
-I see Rauner and Cross declared winners early Wednesday morning.
-Schneider losing by at least five points.
-Davis wins by 8+
My gut says will be talking about the Dem’s GOTV effort tomorrow and marveling at how Rauner took a promising campaign and squandered it by not being ready for prime time.
I know for certain both Quinn and Rauner are very nervous. I don’t know what the outcome will be, but I think either the deep blue of Chicago or the Republican wave will be the deciding factor by a wide margin. My gut tells me the race will be called by 9PM.
My guy tells me voters in this state are smart enough not to fall for the empty Carhartt that is Bruce Rauner. A plutocrat elected governor of IL? I don’t think so. Quinn wins in another squeaker.
Gut tells me Davis gets 60%, Bell-Scherer go into OT, Bustos breaks 55%, Dold wins and it’s an early night, the house and senate stay the same, Bost also pulls it out by 2.
- Joe Bidenopolous - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:02 am:
My gut wants some bourbon to settle it down, is it noon yet?
Rauner by 3, Dold by 7 and Bost by 8. GOP takes 9 in senate tonight and one race (LA) goes into runoff. GOP has 246 house seats, largest majority since 1920. Dem’s net 3 governor seats.
I was reminding a lot of my state co-workers to vote. Many said they were voting for Rauner. The idea is he won’t do all those things to state workers and if he tried it wouldn’t get past the other politicians. Those closer to retirement said voting for Rauner because when they know they are in a position to vote for who they want. It is going to be very close folks. That being said I think I will have new boss soon.
Four more years of rudderless leadership, lurching from crisis to crisis, with no long-term plan and a General Assembly that routinely ignores the Governor. Incremental, almost accidental improvements in the economy combined with no real structural reform, a devastating setback on pensions by the Court, wasteful spending on ineffective programs, much higher taxes and further erosion of Illinois as a manufacturing hub.
Unless Chad Grimm wins. In that case, all of our problems will be solved. But if it’s Rauner or Quinn, look out Mississippi…
I know that Cap’n, but people keep noting that places like my namesake county, along with many other previously solid GOP areas, going Dem in 08 & 12 show that there was a fundamental shift in the entire state.
I think the jury is still out, and this Gov race wont tell much, with these 2 schmucks running, it will still be several cycles to know.
Hoping Quinn wins by a large enough margin so that the billionaire boys club can give it a rest and not demand a recount, blowing millions more dragging things out for weeks on end. (What’s that margin and how long would a worst-case scenario recount take?)
On a side note, the 2016 election starts today. Who runs against Kirk? (largely snark, I know people are sick of elections, so I thought I’d annoy people today).
- Under Further Review - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:27 am:
A Republican wave nationally, but it is possible that Illinois might reelected Patsy just to demonstrate that the Prairie State is completely out of touch with the rest of the nation.
I expect it to come down to a finish so close the loser will demand a re-count and the Libertarian third-party vote will make the critical difference. Nationally, I’m guessing the Republican landslide turns out to be a ripple, but that may just be wishful thinking. Our system is desperately broken.
Rauner squeeks a win, Quinn may demand recount. Either way 47th is right. Same course with a feckless leader at the tiller either way.
Nationally R’s take 7 mcconel survives Roberts falls. We will all get to see how Obama works without a majority. Hopefully he’ll become more like Clinton and find the common ground to move the ball.
Rauner by an eyelash.
Durbin gets low % in his victory.
Cross withstands late Frehrichs surge.
Dold wins.
Davis wins big, Callis in flames before splattering.
Bost knocks on door, might do it. Really close, Enyart retains edge.
Want Bobby to do it, but just do not see it. Hope I am wrong.
House: Sente, Conroy and Crespo really shaky, Goppers will win two, three, maybe more. Jim Durkin turns in GREAT first outing.
Illinois Senate: DK.
US Sen goes Gopper tonight: McConnell wins. Ak, Ar, Co, Ia, Mt, SD and WV follow.
AK may take time due to the bush, but it’ll go Red.
I think we lose Ks to Orman, but he caucuses with the Goppers to get seat on Ag (not the worst result).
If Ga and La don’t go D tonight, then they will go Red in runoffs. No question.
NC and NH, I think we get one, but we should get both. Scott Brown wins first, we’ll see about Tillis.
None of this means Goppers have the secret. Obama is over, but many bad campaigns were run. Voters are doing THEIR thing, not a Dem thing or a Gopper thing.
By tonight, on Channel 9, from 7 p.m., will have better sense of Illinois Senate. Join Clarence Page, Micah, Mark and me. Cheers + don’t forget to vote.
Oh yes, true joy: Scott Walker will pull it out.
- Grandson of Man - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:36 am:
I’m still going to say Quinn, because of the recent polling. One poll I saw that was favorable for Quinn showed strong Rauner support in the collars but weaker Rauner support downstate.
That Illinois Observer poll showed Rauner doing well with African-Americans, but Quinn was still ahead. That poll may have overly favored Quinn in Cook County, and that could be in Rauner’s benefit.
Rauner can win if there is an underlying wave that the polls did not detect. Rauner would need to do very well in Chicago and Cook County, in my opinion, to catch that wave.
Plus, final polling aggregation results can be off in either direction, from what I seen. The final result sometimes is way off from the polling average. That could work against Quinn (see underlying wave).
In 2010 I voted Quinn, this time Rauner. There are a lot of angry state workers still owed back pay and retirees are not really happy with the Governor and his continued support for SB1 and his insistence the bill is Constitutional.
Quinn, Dold and Barr-Topinka win in Illinois. Nationally the senate flips to R.
My question is, if Quinn wins… does that change anything with the Trib and Sun-Times? Would this lead to any re-shuffling? In the internet age, papers have lost a lot of influence… but in a close race like this they would be practically neutered if their endorsements had no effect. Would they need to up their reporting game to re-establish their readership and credibility? Not to suck up or anything, but I think there is a lot they could learn from this site and Rich Miller’s reporting. Browsing this site, you really feel more dialed in than you do reading either major paper.
Bob Dold! wins by a whisker over Schneider all other house incumbents are reelected
- Six Degrees of Separation - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:45 am:
Gut tells me it’s getting close to lunch time. In a Republican wave, if Rauner loses a well funded campaign against an unpopular Quinn, it will tell us more about the candidate than the prevailing political winds, which overall will tilt the balance a little more to the R side statewide as well as nationally.
- Grandson of Man - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:51 am:
Oh, and did I mention Chad Grimm? I honestly have no idea how Grimm will factor in this race, but it could be huge–huge as in a critical percentage point or two huge.
Pat Quinn with 48.6% wins and claims a mandate for his programs of blaming Bruce Rauner for being wealthy. Republicans turn hard right in 2018 thinking Rauner was too moderate. Good luck Governor Raoul!
“We accept without reservation, our obligation to help the aged, disabled and those unfortunates who, through no fault of their own, must depend on their fellow man.” - Saint Ronald Reagan
- Bruce (No not him) - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 12:05 pm:
My gut says thank God that’s over for 2 more years. Who wins? Not a clue.
–Quinn by 1
–Cross/Frerichs not decided until at least tomorrow (maybe even a recount)
–White, Madigan, Durbin, JBT easily
–The ballot questions (including minimum wage and the millionaires’ tax) all pass and will go to die in the GA.
–The 5% tax rate is either made permanent or given another 1-4 year extension. But that will not be decided until shortly after midnight Jan. 14. Regardless, Quinn will still propose making further budget cuts and may trot out the “doomsday budget” again for FY16, this time based on if the Supremes overturn pension reform.
–AFSCME will be back to booing Quinn next August at the State Fair.
That’s some of what my gut is telling me at this time.
- Jake From Elwood - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 12:48 pm:
Waterloo.
Waterloo for the Republicans in our State.
Waterloo for the Democrats nationally.
If only Oberweis succeeded in politics like he succeeded with Black Cherry Ice Cream…
Gut also tells me that in Quinn does not win, a whole lot of people start getting jobs at IDOT tomorrow…
- No Longer A Lurker - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 1:08 pm:
My gut tells me, Johnson & Johnson the makers of Tylenol, will be the big winner here as many of us will have a headache for some time no matter who wins.
I’m a Downstate Dem. Bad weather all day and apparent voter intimidation in EStL, but here goes.
Quinn by the smallest of margins state-wide and Enyart the same. JBT almost certain with Frierichs very close win.
Biggest race in this area is the Karmeier retention - very good man whose reputation has been trashed in the past 2 weeks. Half truths, innuendo and Millions of Dollars could well change our Judiciary for years to come - very disturbing. Karmeier will not be retained.
Judy Barr and Jesse are safe. But, we’ve had one doofus or another as governor for 12-years. Ilinois is doofus territory; Quinn again, just ahead of the 1st state bankruptcy. I know, they’ll have to change the law.
That the Cubs will better than the Sox in 2015. And Governor Rauner will throw out the first ball at the home opener at a new refurbished Wrigley in April!
My gut tells me not to watch the boob tube today,read the paper tomorrow because little will change in Illinois regardless of who gets elected And of course,VOTE. Then to the closest sports bar
If this holds Rauner by 3%
Jim Allen w/City election board:”I don’t anticipate we’re going to be anywhere near 53 percent” in Chicago.
Huge blow to Dems#Election2014
- State Worker #1983 - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 3:56 pm:
My gut was ill after I voted. I stood there for the longest time and looked at the gubernatorial race. I had sworn all along I would vote for Rauner to break the Dem monopoly of power in Illinois government. But I couldn’t do it. I wrote in Adlai Stevenson. I couldn’t possibly vote for four more years of Quinn; and I accept that Rauner is an amoral plutocrat, but his plans and his motives are just too murky. And he disgusts me. So there you are, I “threw my vote away.”
Stand by original prediction. Quinn by a slim margin, but we won’t know until Thursday of Friday. The Gov position will show something like a 10% - 12% under vote due to people who wanted to vote against Rauner but couldn’t bring themselves to vote for Grimm or Quinn.
Durbin will win, but by less than expected.
Lisa Madigan may win but it’s going to be close.
Nationally, things mostly shift to the GOP. Quinn’s winning here will be seen as the exception to a GOP mini-wave.
.
… and then the sun came out and Quinn lost. Seems I was correct about lack of urban black turnout and the whole ‘Quinn in the bunker issuing orders to phantom supporters’ thing !
- Gus - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 10:47 am:
Voted for Rauner.
Think Quinn will squeak it out.
- Andy - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 10:47 am:
Rauner will pull out a squeaker.
- Anon1687 - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 10:48 am:
My gut says nationally it will be a huge win for Republicans. Will take senate majority very easily. Locally, Dold will defeat Schneider, and unfortunately the state as a whole is just too blue for Rauner to take home.
- Politidork - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 10:48 am:
Quinn by 3.
- Anonymoiis - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 10:49 am:
My gut says I should’ve stayed away from the jalepenos last night. It’s only opinion on the election outcome is “dunno.”
- Gerson - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 10:50 am:
No ketchup for the hot dog today.
- Almost the Weekend - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 10:50 am:
Bad Day for Dems, if the election was a week earlier I think they would have pulled it out.
-I see Rauner and Cross declared winners early Wednesday morning.
-Schneider losing by at least five points.
-Davis wins by 8+
- DS Politico - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 10:50 am:
Voted for Rauner. Up until today thought Quinn would win. But after talking to voters think Rauner may barely pull it off.
- Griz - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 10:52 am:
Quinn again by the slimmest of margins.
- Empty Chair - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 10:52 am:
Quinn’s going to win by an entire percentage point. Bold, I know. Crazy, probably. But hey, points for originality?
- Deep South - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 10:52 am:
My gut tells me Topinka wins big.
- Will Caskey - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 10:52 am:
That Stan’s donuts are too sugary.
- Carroll County - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 10:53 am:
Over this and the next elections, IL will find out if it has gone true blue or if 08 and 12 were just an Obama celebrity effect.
- Hardwood Floors - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 10:53 am:
Wave election for R’s nationally and in IL. Rauner, Cross, Topinka all win. Senate R’s pick up a seat and House R’s pick up 4-6.
- Kerfuffle - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 10:54 am:
Quinn 52, Rauner 48
- regular democrat - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 10:54 am:
I believe that Quinn will pull it out his union support in central and southern will be the difference
- pundent - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 10:55 am:
My gut says will be talking about the Dem’s GOTV effort tomorrow and marveling at how Rauner took a promising campaign and squandered it by not being ready for prime time.
- Casual Observer - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 10:55 am:
My gut says Jesse White will win all but 1 county.
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 10:56 am:
Quinn will wish his $55 million bribe grant would have actually been more beneficial. To him on Election Day
- Ahoy! - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 10:58 am:
Rauner will pull it out by less than .5% and Madigan will loose his super majority. Mike also win’s the treasurer’s race.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 10:58 am:
Downstate weather is ominous.
“Spanish Armada v. Elizabeth I” ominous.
- IrishPirate - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 10:58 am:
My gut tells me I need more fiber in my diet.
AS for election results Quinn will win.
Quinn 48.5
Mitt Rauner 46.5
Grimmster 5
Nationally Dems hold the Senate by two with some help from some independent candidates winning.
or not.
Don’t bet the retirement funds on it.
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 10:59 am:
I know for certain both Quinn and Rauner are very nervous. I don’t know what the outcome will be, but I think either the deep blue of Chicago or the Republican wave will be the deciding factor by a wide margin. My gut tells me the race will be called by 9PM.
- Peoria Guy - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 10:59 am:
Quinn. Senate finishes 50 for Republicans and two runoffs, both to be won by Republicans leaving 52-48
- White Denim - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:00 am:
Rauner by 3, Dold by 5, Davis by 10+
- RetiredStateEmployee - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:00 am:
My gut is sad because we don’t have a choice of a real leader.
- Farker - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:00 am:
My guy tells me voters in this state are smart enough not to fall for the empty Carhartt that is Bruce Rauner. A plutocrat elected governor of IL? I don’t think so. Quinn wins in another squeaker.
- Montrose - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:00 am:
Quinn by more than folks expect. Bigger margin than Brady. Frerichs comes from behind to win. I also think Jesse White has a good chance.
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:01 am:
Pitney Swope, write in candidate for Gov wins by a landslide. The “I Despise Pols” segment came out in force and changed things on massive scale.
- Modest proposal - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:01 am:
Gut tells me Davis gets 60%, Bell-Scherer go into OT, Bustos breaks 55%, Dold wins and it’s an early night, the house and senate stay the same, Bost also pulls it out by 2.
- Joe Bidenopolous - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:02 am:
My gut wants some bourbon to settle it down, is it noon yet?
- OneMan - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:03 am:
Quinn by less than 2 (sigh)…
That Kiffowit/Bansal ends up much closer than anyone expects…
- Go Bears - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:03 am:
From your lips to God’s ears, Farker.
- Bunson8r - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:03 am:
Quinn… barely
- Ryan - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:03 am:
Rauner by 3, Dold by 7 and Bost by 8. GOP takes 9 in senate tonight and one race (LA) goes into runoff. GOP has 246 house seats, largest majority since 1920. Dem’s net 3 governor seats.
- Modest proposal - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:03 am:
I’m thinking frerichs pulls this out, he spent a lot of money this last week.
- OneMan - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:04 am:
Also my gut tells me if Rauner does pull it off a lot of you are going to lose your minds…
- Amalia - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:04 am:
bad day for Dems. and for my head.
- Soccermom - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:04 am:
Quinn wins. Worried about the Senate. Praying that Scott Walker gets his hat handed to him, but not optimistic. Watching Maine.
- Beetlejuice - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:04 am:
It’s gonna be a fine day for the Republicans in Illinois and accross these great United States.
- Roland the Headless Thompson Gunner - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:04 am:
It’s anybody’s ball game.
- NorthbyNorthWest - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:04 am:
Quinn wins by 1-2%
Topinka wins big
Frerichs squeeks it out
Davis, Bustos, Foster, Bost, and Dold win their districts
- Ducky LaMoore - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:06 am:
Quinn winning by 4%
Frehrichs by 1%
Topinka by 20%
Enyart by less than 1/2%
Bustos by 15%
Republican Senate
- Aldyth - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:06 am:
Quinn, by a margin so slim that Rauner demands a recount.
- 19th Ward - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:06 am:
My info says turnout better now for Rauner but Quinn still has Union working hard
- Vote today! - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:08 am:
I was reminding a lot of my state co-workers to vote. Many said they were voting for Rauner. The idea is he won’t do all those things to state workers and if he tried it wouldn’t get past the other politicians. Those closer to retirement said voting for Rauner because when they know they are in a position to vote for who they want. It is going to be very close folks. That being said I think I will have new boss soon.
- 47th Ward - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:08 am:
Four more years of rudderless leadership, lurching from crisis to crisis, with no long-term plan and a General Assembly that routinely ignores the Governor. Incremental, almost accidental improvements in the economy combined with no real structural reform, a devastating setback on pensions by the Court, wasteful spending on ineffective programs, much higher taxes and further erosion of Illinois as a manufacturing hub.
Unless Chad Grimm wins. In that case, all of our problems will be solved. But if it’s Rauner or Quinn, look out Mississippi…
- The Captain - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:09 am:
“Over this and the next elections, IL will find out if it has gone true blue or if 08 and 12 were just an Obama celebrity effect.”
There have been 23 statewide elections in Illinois this century and the Republicans have won 4 of them.
- demgov - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:09 am:
Like Thompson/Stevenson, only Quinn is Thompson. BR will pay for a recount!
- Brookport Brandon - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:09 am:
Quinn always be closin.
- demgov - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:11 am:
We went Blue for Gore with 55%
- VPlena - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:12 am:
Rauner by 150,000.
- Downstate Greg - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:12 am:
Modest proposal - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:03 am:
I’m thinking frerichs pulls this out, he spent a lot of money this last week
“Frerichs pulls this out he spent a lot of Mike Madigans money last week”!!!
- mship1975 - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:12 am:
Quinn by 2
White, L. Madigan, Topinka-Big
Cross by 3
National
Repub take 50-49 with Kansas going I and caucusing with D gives them majority due to VP
- Nick - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:13 am:
Jesse White may squeak it out . . .
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:13 am:
Rauner has nobody working polls. Quinn wins.
- allknowingmasterofracoondom - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:14 am:
Quinn by a squeak, or Rauner big (by at least 3)
Dold big. There is a message being sent to Washington and it ain’t good job boys.
- Carroll County - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:14 am:
I know that Cap’n, but people keep noting that places like my namesake county, along with many other previously solid GOP areas, going Dem in 08 & 12 show that there was a fundamental shift in the entire state.
I think the jury is still out, and this Gov race wont tell much, with these 2 schmucks running, it will still be several cycles to know.
- Team America - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:15 am:
Huge VBM/EV boost in Lake County wins it for Rauner in a squeaker. You heard it here first.
- Bogey Golfer - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:16 am:
Cross close. Rauner closer. Durbin, but by less than a 10% margin.
- bardo - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:18 am:
Jim Oberweis heads to Florida to plan for his 2016 Senate bid.
Mixed bag in IL (NorthbyNorthWest seems to have it right IMHO). Bad night for Dems nationally.
- Economic Justice - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:18 am:
Hoping Quinn wins by a large enough margin so that the billionaire boys club can give it a rest and not demand a recount, blowing millions more dragging things out for weeks on end. (What’s that margin and how long would a worst-case scenario recount take?)
- siriusly - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:19 am:
My gut is in turmoil. I’ll go with Rauner by 30,000 votes.
Other winners:
Jesse White
Tom Cross
Lisa Madigan
JBT
Mike Bost
Yingling survives, Sente does not
- Bogey Golfer - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:20 am:
Nationally, the Senate will be a Dem/Rep split.
- (618) Democrat - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:20 am:
The trend will be clear by 9:00 PM and Quinn will be declared the winner by 11:00 PM.
- Bill White - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:21 am:
Democrats will retain control of the IL Senate.
And because the IL GOP could sweep every contested state senate race this cycle and still not take control, this prediction is a lock.
- 3rd Generation Chicago Native - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:23 am:
Toss up for Governor, we won’t know until tommoro
Jesse White, Madigan, JBT, tonight soon after close
Cross later tonight
- Anon III - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:24 am:
Quinn by no more than the hairs on his head.
- Try-4-Truth - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:26 am:
Quinn 50
Rauner 45
Grimm 5
Cross bigger than people think.
R’s pick up a US House seat or two in IL
On a side note, the 2016 election starts today. Who runs against Kirk? (largely snark, I know people are sick of elections, so I thought I’d annoy people today).
- MrJM - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:26 am:
“What does your gut tell you today?”
To get back to making GOTV calls…
– MrJM
- Under Further Review - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:27 am:
A Republican wave nationally, but it is possible that Illinois might reelected Patsy just to demonstrate that the Prairie State is completely out of touch with the rest of the nation.
- Newsclown - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:34 am:
I expect it to come down to a finish so close the loser will demand a re-count and the Libertarian third-party vote will make the critical difference. Nationally, I’m guessing the Republican landslide turns out to be a ripple, but that may just be wishful thinking. Our system is desperately broken.
- Mason born - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:34 am:
Rauner squeeks a win, Quinn may demand recount. Either way 47th is right. Same course with a feckless leader at the tiller either way.
Nationally R’s take 7 mcconel survives Roberts falls. We will all get to see how Obama works without a majority. Hopefully he’ll become more like Clinton and find the common ground to move the ball.
- Chris Robling - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:34 am:
Rauner by an eyelash.
Durbin gets low % in his victory.
Cross withstands late Frehrichs surge.
Dold wins.
Davis wins big, Callis in flames before splattering.
Bost knocks on door, might do it. Really close, Enyart retains edge.
Want Bobby to do it, but just do not see it. Hope I am wrong.
House: Sente, Conroy and Crespo really shaky, Goppers will win two, three, maybe more. Jim Durkin turns in GREAT first outing.
Illinois Senate: DK.
US Sen goes Gopper tonight: McConnell wins. Ak, Ar, Co, Ia, Mt, SD and WV follow.
AK may take time due to the bush, but it’ll go Red.
I think we lose Ks to Orman, but he caucuses with the Goppers to get seat on Ag (not the worst result).
If Ga and La don’t go D tonight, then they will go Red in runoffs. No question.
NC and NH, I think we get one, but we should get both. Scott Brown wins first, we’ll see about Tillis.
None of this means Goppers have the secret. Obama is over, but many bad campaigns were run. Voters are doing THEIR thing, not a Dem thing or a Gopper thing.
By tonight, on Channel 9, from 7 p.m., will have better sense of Illinois Senate. Join Clarence Page, Micah, Mark and me. Cheers + don’t forget to vote.
Oh yes, true joy: Scott Walker will pull it out.
- Grandson of Man - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:36 am:
I’m still going to say Quinn, because of the recent polling. One poll I saw that was favorable for Quinn showed strong Rauner support in the collars but weaker Rauner support downstate.
That Illinois Observer poll showed Rauner doing well with African-Americans, but Quinn was still ahead. That poll may have overly favored Quinn in Cook County, and that could be in Rauner’s benefit.
Rauner can win if there is an underlying wave that the polls did not detect. Rauner would need to do very well in Chicago and Cook County, in my opinion, to catch that wave.
Plus, final polling aggregation results can be off in either direction, from what I seen. The final result sometimes is way off from the polling average. That could work against Quinn (see underlying wave).
- Lunchbox - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:37 am:
My gut went from Rauner winning last week to Quinn Sunday night and now this morning I’m back with Rauner by 1-2 points.
- 47th Ward - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:39 am:
===Durbin gets low % in his victory.===
Try to sober up before you go on-air Chris.
- Wordslinger - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:39 am:
Quinn by 3. Thought from the get go if it were close at the end, Dems GOTV would be the difference.
There’s a dear price to pay for letting the GOP organizations wither over the years. No crying when you’re outhustled.
- Pot calling kettle - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:40 am:
Tums, tums, tums…
My head hopes that Rauner loses if only to show that elections can’t be bought by rich people. My gut hopes my head is right.
- papak - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:40 am:
Rauner 47.9
Quinn 46.1
Durbin, White, Lisa Madigan, and JBT win easily
Cross by 5
- anon - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:40 am:
Rauner will do fine downstate, there is a lot of disdain for Quinn in central and southern IL.
- modest proposal - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:40 am:
So, even the people that think Cross is going to win think Frerichs is surging, my gut is in tune with them I guess…
- Tsavo - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:41 am:
Rauner will win by a razor thin margin.
In 2010 I voted Quinn, this time Rauner. There are a lot of angry state workers still owed back pay and retirees are not really happy with the Governor and his continued support for SB1 and his insistence the bill is Constitutional.
- porkbellies - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:42 am:
Quinn, Dold and Barr-Topinka win in Illinois. Nationally the senate flips to R.
My question is, if Quinn wins… does that change anything with the Trib and Sun-Times? Would this lead to any re-shuffling? In the internet age, papers have lost a lot of influence… but in a close race like this they would be practically neutered if their endorsements had no effect. Would they need to up their reporting game to re-establish their readership and credibility? Not to suck up or anything, but I think there is a lot they could learn from this site and Rich Miller’s reporting. Browsing this site, you really feel more dialed in than you do reading either major paper.
- Mittuns - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:42 am:
Quinn by 80k votes, 68-50 (H) and 40-19 (S) Dem majorities in the Statehouse.
+5 seats for GOP in Congress, 51-49 Dems hold the Senate.
- papak - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:43 am:
Bob Dold! wins by a whisker over Schneider all other house incumbents are reelected
- Six Degrees of Separation - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:45 am:
Gut tells me it’s getting close to lunch time. In a Republican wave, if Rauner loses a well funded campaign against an unpopular Quinn, it will tell us more about the candidate than the prevailing political winds, which overall will tilt the balance a little more to the R side statewide as well as nationally.
- walker - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:45 am:
My gut says Rauner by 1.5 and GOP control US Senate with 53 solid.
Just too much headwind against Dems, if a lot of folks turn out.
My gut is notoriously wrong.
If Quinn wins, props to a remarkably effective campaign.
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:47 am:
Quinn by 100,000 votes
- Grandson of Man - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:51 am:
Oh, and did I mention Chad Grimm? I honestly have no idea how Grimm will factor in this race, but it could be huge–huge as in a critical percentage point or two huge.
- OurMagician - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:55 am:
Pat Quinn with 48.6% wins and claims a mandate for his programs of blaming Bruce Rauner for being wealthy. Republicans turn hard right in 2018 thinking Rauner was too moderate. Good luck Governor Raoul!
- walleyeb - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:56 am:
Rauner by 1 to 2%. Really haven’t seen much union support for Quinn!
- AC - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:56 am:
Quinn squeaks out a close win, and the winner isn’t called until tomorrow morning.
- Finally Out (formerly Ready to Get Out) - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:59 am:
My gut tells me not enough voters will see through Rauner’s fake Carhartt and cheap watch image he’s trying to portray to stop him.
My faith in people says they will.
- Del Clinkton - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 12:01 pm:
“We accept without reservation, our obligation to help the aged, disabled and those unfortunates who, through no fault of their own, must depend on their fellow man.” - Saint Ronald Reagan
- Bruce (No not him) - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 12:05 pm:
My gut says thank God that’s over for 2 more years. Who wins? Not a clue.
- Jay Dee - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 12:06 pm:
Since it’s lunch time, my gut says feed me…
Quinn, White, Madigan, Cross, JBT win. Republicans control the U.S. Senate with 52 seats.
- VanillaMan - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 12:16 pm:
My gut says Rauner, but after 2010, I don’t believe it anymore.
- steve schnorf - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 12:16 pm:
Don’t know. Only thought I’ve had is yesterday farmers were still harvesting, today it’s raining, they’ll vote
- Joe Bidenopolous - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 12:17 pm:
With some trepidation, sticking with my original opinion, memorialized here https://capitolfax.com/2014/10/31/polling-averages-models-projections-etc/#comment-11651267 but originally made on Oct. 23 to friends - Quinn by 100k
- One to the Dome - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 12:19 pm:
Long Night
- Wensicia - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 12:20 pm:
My gut is telling me we won’t know the results of the governor’s race until tomorrow.
- Enviro - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 12:21 pm:
Third party candidates will do better than expected. Just my opinion.
- Soccermom - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 12:33 pm:
Standing pat —
My prediction remains: Quinn 48.5, Rauner 47, Grimm 4.5.
- Chris Robling - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 12:35 pm:
Oh, and I hate to say this, but Justice Karmeier is going down, I fear.
- ThatGirl - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 12:37 pm:
Urban blacks are staying home. Looks like Rauner will win.
- Leatherneck - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 12:40 pm:
My gut tells me:
–Quinn by 1
–Cross/Frerichs not decided until at least tomorrow (maybe even a recount)
–White, Madigan, Durbin, JBT easily
–The ballot questions (including minimum wage and the millionaires’ tax) all pass and will go to die in the GA.
–The 5% tax rate is either made permanent or given another 1-4 year extension. But that will not be decided until shortly after midnight Jan. 14. Regardless, Quinn will still propose making further budget cuts and may trot out the “doomsday budget” again for FY16, this time based on if the Supremes overturn pension reform.
–AFSCME will be back to booing Quinn next August at the State Fair.
That’s some of what my gut is telling me at this time.
- Jake From Elwood - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 12:48 pm:
Waterloo.
Waterloo for the Republicans in our State.
Waterloo for the Democrats nationally.
If only Oberweis succeeded in politics like he succeeded with Black Cherry Ice Cream…
- Try-4-Truth - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 12:58 pm:
- ThatGirl - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 12:37 pm:
Urban blacks are staying home. Looks like Rauner will win.——
What? Please explain?
- OneMan - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 1:07 pm:
Gut also tells me that in Quinn does not win, a whole lot of people start getting jobs at IDOT tomorrow…
- No Longer A Lurker - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 1:08 pm:
My gut tells me, Johnson & Johnson the makers of Tylenol, will be the big winner here as many of us will have a headache for some time no matter who wins.
- Stones - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 1:11 pm:
PQ by a whisker. R’s take control of the US Senate.
- illini - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 1:18 pm:
I’m a Downstate Dem. Bad weather all day and apparent voter intimidation in EStL, but here goes.
Quinn by the smallest of margins state-wide and Enyart the same. JBT almost certain with Frierichs very close win.
Biggest race in this area is the Karmeier retention - very good man whose reputation has been trashed in the past 2 weeks. Half truths, innuendo and Millions of Dollars could well change our Judiciary for years to come - very disturbing. Karmeier will not be retained.
- Keyser Soze - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 1:24 pm:
Judy Barr and Jesse are safe. But, we’ve had one doofus or another as governor for 12-years. Ilinois is doofus territory; Quinn again, just ahead of the 1st state bankruptcy. I know, they’ll have to change the law.
- Stuff Happens - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 1:32 pm:
My gut tells me that I’m getting too old for this.
I’m concerned that Rauner might win; I hear too many people saying they’re voting for him because Quinn didn’t do enough fast enough.
- Cheswick - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 1:32 pm:
Pat Quinn wins by a hair. Bruce Rauner throws a major fit. About the time of the inauguration, Bruce will be just a fading memory.
- Niles Township - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 1:38 pm:
Frehrichs/Cross will wind up being a bit closer than Rauner/Quinn.
- One of the 35 - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 1:39 pm:
Illinois loses.
- Mo - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 1:47 pm:
Rauner wins. Quinn shouldn’t have won in 2010 but for the now disenchanted Obama coalition.
- Mr.Big Trouble - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 1:50 pm:
That the Cubs will better than the Sox in 2015. And Governor Rauner will throw out the first ball at the home opener at a new refurbished Wrigley in April!
- 47th ward mom - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 1:51 pm:
Too close to call by the end of the night
A recount that lands in favor of Quinn by a margin
Topinka wins
Durbin wins
Cross wins
- K3 - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 1:55 pm:
Quinn by 2%,Frerichs by 4%,GOP only nets one house seat and a crapstorm ensues. Nationally the GOP picks up the Senate 52-48 and about 5 house seats
- Ed - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 2:05 pm:
My gut tells me not to watch the boob tube today,read the paper tomorrow because little will change in Illinois regardless of who gets elected And of course,VOTE. Then to the closest sports bar
- Lovecraft - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 2:10 pm:
Rauner by 2%. Nationally Senate taken over by GOP by 51-49. Time for Mourning in America and Illinois.
- Buzzie - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 2:22 pm:
Kirk Dillard will once again haunt the Republicans.
- Original Rambler - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 2:23 pm:
PQ by 2.5.
- walleyeb - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 2:59 pm:
If this holds Rauner by 3%
Jim Allen w/City election board:”I don’t anticipate we’re going to be anywhere near 53 percent” in Chicago.
Huge blow to Dems#Election2014
- State Worker #1983 - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 3:56 pm:
Rauner surprises everyone, wins by +5%.
- Excessively Rabid - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 4:49 pm:
My gut was ill after I voted. I stood there for the longest time and looked at the gubernatorial race. I had sworn all along I would vote for Rauner to break the Dem monopoly of power in Illinois government. But I couldn’t do it. I wrote in Adlai Stevenson. I couldn’t possibly vote for four more years of Quinn; and I accept that Rauner is an amoral plutocrat, but his plans and his motives are just too murky. And he disgusts me. So there you are, I “threw my vote away.”
- RNUG - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 6:11 pm:
Stand by original prediction. Quinn by a slim margin, but we won’t know until Thursday of Friday. The Gov position will show something like a 10% - 12% under vote due to people who wanted to vote against Rauner but couldn’t bring themselves to vote for Grimm or Quinn.
Durbin will win, but by less than expected.
Lisa Madigan may win but it’s going to be close.
Nationally, things mostly shift to the GOP. Quinn’s winning here will be seen as the exception to a GOP mini-wave.
- RNUG - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 6:13 pm:
And now my gut is telling me it’s time to find some food before heading over to the winning Sangamon County Sheriff’s party.
- ThatGirl - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 7:04 pm:
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 10:58 am:
Downstate weather is ominous.
“Spanish Armada v. Elizabeth I” ominous.
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… and then the sun came out and Quinn lost. Seems I was correct about lack of urban black turnout and the whole ‘Quinn in the bunker issuing orders to phantom supporters’ thing !