Houston, we have a problem
Friday, Nov 14, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Sun-Times…
A Chicago election official has been fired in the aftermath of a contentious election that has resulted in a criminal probe of disruptive robocalls and complaints about “irregularities” in handling ballots in the state treasurer’s race. […]
But the firing comes amid complaints from the campaign of Republican candidate for state treasurer Tom Cross. A lawyer for the campaign wrote a letter to the Chicago Board of Election Commissioners about “numerous irregularities identified by election monitors in the handling of ballots” for the Nov. 4 election.
“In fact, we are informed and believe that at least one employee of the [Chicago Board of Election Commissioners] has been terminated in conjunction with — if not because of — these irregularities,” lawyer William J. Quinlan wrote in the letter dated Thursday, which was obtained by Early & Often.
Quinlan claims there have been issues with absentee ballots, including errors in counting of those ballots and the discovery of absentee ballots in a closet at the board of elections’ “premises.” Some issues he notes regarding provisional ballots includes ballots left behind at polling places and ballots received after the Nov. 5 deadline, according to the letter.
Allen, of the Chicago Board of Election, said the agency “will respond point by point to the credibility, or lack thereof” of the allegations.
* The Board’s response is, indeed, point by point. You can read the whole thing by clicking here.
For instance…
Regarding your second point, your claim that an “additional” 1,406 absentee ballots were “discovered” in a closet on or about November 12, is also inaccurate. There were unopened absentee ballot envelopes containing absentee ballots located in different parts of the Absentee Department that were consolidated, placed in sealed cases, and then placed in a secure, locked closet in a locked room used by the Board’s head of security… (T)he “existence” of these ballots was, in fact, previously known by Republican Party watchers and Mr. Fogarty. These ballot envelopes were consolidated into sealed cases and stored in a locked room. Mr. Fogarty was allowed to extensively examine these ballot envelopes.
And…
Finally, regarding an employee who was terminated by the Board, I am not going to discuss personnel issues. However, any and all matters that could affect the integrity of absentee ballots, including any such matters that might involve the employee in question, have been fully discussed with Mr. Fogarty as well as with representatives for the Democratic Party and are discussed in this letter as well.
* But check this out. If the race winds up within 500 or so votes, we’ve got a big problem on our hands…
Next, regarding your fourth point, there were indeed 99 absentee ballots that were not received by the Board in a timely manner yet ended up being commingled with otherwise valid absentee ballots. The Board learned early morning on Friday, November 7, that some absentee ballot envelopes received too late to be counted were permitted to be brought down to the room where valid absentee ballots were being processed. Upon learning this, the processing of absentee ballots was immediately suspended. Procedures to address this problem were drafted and Board staff and I met with lawyers from both political parties, including Mr. Fogarty, to discuss solutions to the problem. Ballot envelopes indicating they were received too late to be counted were removed from the absentee ballot processing room. However, there were 99 “too late” absentee ballot envelopes that had already been opened and the ballots within those envelopes had already been inter-filed with valid ballots organized behind ward and precinct header cards. All absentee ballots in those precincts and with the same ballot style were removed and segregated. In all, the Board identified a total of 558 absentee ballots, including the 99 “too late” ballots, that were pulled and segregated.
I want to emphasize that absolutely no absentee ballots, ballot envelopes or other materials were “discarded or destroyed” as you allege in you letter. Everything has been preserved.
I did inform Mr. Fogarty that, because it was impossible to identify which of the 558 absentee ballots were the 99 “too late” ballots and remove those 99 from counting without disenfranchising the other 459 voters who cast timely and valid absentee ballots, it was the Board’s plan to count all these ballots separately so as to produce a separate count and then to preserve those ballots separately. In that way, the political parties can be armed with information that they may use in any post-election court proceedings and may seek whatever remedy they wish before the court.
Oy.
I’m wondering if that’s why the guy was fired.
Ugh.
This could take forever to sort out.
* In other news, Scott Kennedy updated his numbers…
I was told that Hancock County had updated numbers so I called during lunch and sure enough they do. They added 511 votes over what was previously publicly available and Cross gained 127 votes. They also said this was their final count and would have no further updates. The current margin is Tom Cross by 664 votes.
I will check everything again either tonight or more likely tomorrow.
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Kafkaesque
Friday, Nov 14, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Scott Shirey was driving his twins to swimming practice when their car was hit by a distracted driver in an overloaded pickup truck who blew through a stop light. One of the twins died. Wanna guess who was charged?…
Even though another driver caused the accident, it was the Island Lake father who faced up to 14 years in prison. He was not impaired at the time, but Shirey, now 52, was charged two months later after a blood test showed traces of marijuana in his system from — according to his attorney — smoking it a month beforehand.
“Nothing can possibly illustrate this idiotic law more than the Scott Shirey case,” defense attorney Patrick O’Byrne said. “It’s incomprehensible how bad the law is. It’s a worst-case scenario, charged with the homicide of your own son for smoking pot that had nothing to do with the accident.”
Yet prosecutors, law enforcement and Attorney General Lisa Madigan unequivocally support the law.
“The legislature has said, ‘If you’re going to consume these illegal drugs — illegally — you can’t drive,’” said Kane County State’s Attorney Joe McMahon, noting the law clearly states drivers testing positive for any amounts of the drug are breaking the law.
Geez, what a dumb law. And what kind of a yahoo reefer madness prosecutor even charges a guy like that?
* The ISBA is trying to correct it…
The state bar association has submitted a bill to the state legislature to change the DUI law in Illinois. […]
The Illinois State Bar Association says the DUI law shouldn’t apply to drivers who weren’t impaired during the time of an accident.
Seems to make sense to me.
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In editorial agreement (mostly)
Friday, Nov 14, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Sun-Times…
Not so long ago, Exelon, which runs six nuclear energy plants in Illinois, was extolling the merits of an open market for power as its profits rolled in.
Now, with power prices plunging, Exelon has lost enthusiasm for the open markets it championed in the 1990s and wants the Legislature to devise a new formula that will protect its profits, quite likely driving up utility bills for homeowners and businesses. The company says it needs to pull in as much as an extra $580 million to avoid having to close several of its power plants. Suddenly, a little government intervention is looking good.
We’re not sure the Legislature should even bite. But before doing anything, it should insist that Exelon prove its case. If Exelon is hard up, they can show us. The company should open its books to show how its nuclear fleet is performing. Right now, Exelon won’t even say whether its nuclear plants are making money as a group.
If the Legislature does decide to give Exelon an assist, it should insist on a rate cap to protect consumers. There is no way the Legislature should bail out a company whose nuclear plants are profitable — according to an analysis by Crain’s Chicago Business — in such a way that ratepayers get hammered.
Yep.
* Tribune…
The [three west suburban school districts] want to sever ties to the Lyons Township school treasurer’s office. The treasurer, who is appointed by the Lyons Township trustees of schools, is supposed to invest money and manage payrolls for 13 school districts and educational cooperatives in the area. The school districts have to pay the treasurer for the services. Three of those districts say they could do the work themselves at much less expense.
One, LaGrange Elementary School District 105, has paid the treasurer’s office $84,000 in each of the past two years — way too much, the district says. Lyons Township High School District 204 and LaGrange Elementary School District 102 also want to break from the treasurer’s office. They can’t, though, unless all 13 districts agree to opt out.
This is more than just a story about unneeded government in Illinois. (The state has nearly 7,000 units of government.) Here’s what’s particularly galling: Last year, a former Lyons Township school treasurer, Robert Healy, was charged with stealing about $1.5 million from local school districts over two decades.
Almost all of Illinois gets along quite nicely without this duplication of service. The General Assembly created the office of township trustees of schools in 1819, but wised up in 1962. That’s when the legislature abolished the offices everywhere in the state, except Cook County.
House GOP Leader Jim Durkin has a bill to allow those schools to opt out. He’s working on another bill to make it easier for all Cook County school districts to opt out. If it saves the schools that kind of money, why not?
* SJ-R…
Although undervoting – in this case, the absence of votes for particular races on a ballot – aren’t necessarily a reflection of voters’ dissatisfaction with the lack of choices on the ballot, it’s fair to assume that some of them are. Many people have at least one friend or relative who abstains from casting a vote on unopposed races as a form of protest.
Consider this: a check of votes and undervotes in races with two or more candidates on Tuesday’s ballot in Sangamon County shows the undervote percentage ran roughly 1 to 3 percent, calculated race by race.
But in the unopposed races, the undervote percentage leapt to double digits – ranging from about 15 to 22 percent, depending on the race.
Iron-clad proof that voters want choice? Not necessarily. Food for thought? Absolutely.
I almost never vote for an unopposed candidate.
* Daily Herald…
For our part, we’ve opposed Pat Quinn a lot over the years but never found him dislikable. In office, he often acted courageously — including the pledge to our editorial board last month that led to his undoing, his lightning-rod vow to push through a repeat of the lame-duck tax increase.
We will miss Quinn’s affability, his incessant cheerfulness, his realness. When, through cute circumstance, he called a home run from the broadcast booth of a White Sox game last summer, he did it with a fan’s boyish glee. It was as genuine a moment as Wednesday’s concession.
Our biggest problem with Quinn was less his motives or his politics, but more that through years of misgovernment, Illinois has fallen into such a deep crisis that it cannot be raised with the status quo or one-party rule.
* But I’m not so sure about this one…
The Associated Fire Fighters of Illinois has pushed the bill, saying too few firefighters on an engine company invites danger. The union points out that the number of firefighters responding to a blaze is as important as the speed.
But municipal officials correctly say they have to balance firefighting needs with other budgetary considerations. As the Legislature debated the issue in the spring, Buffalo Grove officials estimated that one extra firefighter position for each fire truck would cost $1.3 million a year, and Aurora said its total would be $4.6 million. That’s a big chunk of a municipal budget in the suburbs or Downstate.
The bill passed the Illinois House 63-44 in spring, but stalled in the Senate. Backers need to get it through the upper chamber in the Legislature’s upcoming veto or lame-duck sessions, or start over. They know their odds of success likely will grow worse under a Gov. Rauner.
The bill would add staffing levels to collective bargaining issues that can go to binding arbitration. Now, binding arbitration is limited to wages, hours and working conditions. That means if unions and local governments don’t agree on staffing levels, under this bill an arbiter could come in and do it for them. If the arbitrator decides a particular town needs more firefighters or paramedics than local officials think, they won’t have any say in the matter.
On the other hand, the arbiter could decide a town needs fewer firefighters or paramedics than unions contend. The bill may need some tweaking to set some clear standards, but to automatically assume that a neutral outside party will always side with the unions is puzzling to me. Maybe I’m missing something here. Please inform me if I’m wrong.
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* The Paul Simon Public Policy Institute polled Illinoisans on a topical question…
Should local police forces have military weapons and vehicles, such as assault rifles and tanks, or should these kinds of weapons be reserved only for the military and National Guard?
Should have 27.8%
Only military 63.8%
Don’t Know 8.3%
* From the Institute…
Democrats and liberals are the strongest opponents, both topping 70 percent. Over half of Republicans and conservatives shared that opinion.
Among racial groups, seven of ten black respondents say such weapons should be returned to the military, compared with 61.9 percent of white respondents. Geographically, opposition to police militarization was strongest in Chicago (69.5 percent) and its suburbs (67.2 percent), while downstate the opposition to militarization was still a majority (54.5 percent).
You can read the whole poll, with crosstabs, by clicking here.
There’s a bunch more interesting stuff in there, including questions like: My local police department represents the racial makeup of my community…
* How would you rate your local police department on police protection?…
* How would you rate your local police department on the ability to respond quickly to calls for help and assistance?…
* Should the racial makeup of a community’s police department be similar to the racial makeup of that community as a whole, or isn’t it necessary?…
* My local police department responds to the needs of all members of the community…
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Jane Byrne
Friday, Nov 14, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Sad news…
Former Chicago Mayor Jane Byrne has died, a source tells Sun-Times columnist Michael Sneed.
Chicago’s first and only female mayor had been in hospice for about a week.
* Neil Steinberg has a balanced, but wonderfully written obit on the Sun-Times site…
Jane Byrne was not mighty, like her mentor, Richard J. Daley.
She was not beloved, like her successor, Harold Washington.
Nor was she long-serving, like her bitter rival, Richard M. Daley.
But she was mayor, Chicago’s first and only female mayor — making Chicago the largest city in the United States to elect a female chief executive — serving a single, tempestuous term, ushering the city into the 1980s, leaving her own colorful legacy during a time of political change, social upheaval and financial crisis.
Go read the whole thing.
* And the tributes are coming in. Mayor Emanuel…
“With the passing of Mayor Jane Byrne, the City of Chicago has lost a great trailblazer.
Mayor Byrne was a Chicago icon who lived a remarkable life of service to our city. From signing the first ordinance to get handguns off of our streets, to bringing more transparency to the City’s budget, to creating the Taste of Chicago, Mayor Byrne leaves a large and lasting legacy. And as the first woman to serve as Mayor, she will always have a special place in our history.
I was deeply honored that she attended my inauguration, and, in turn, it was my privilege to sign our City’s ordinance officially dedicating the plaza surrounding our iconic Water Tower in her honor.
The thoughts and prayers of the people of Chicago are with her daughter Kathy and her many friends at this difficult time.”
Governor-elect Bruce Rauner…
“I’m saddened to learn of the death of Mayor Byrne. She was a pioneer and will be missed by all. The City of Chicago owes her a huge debt of gratitude. My thoughts and prayers are with her daughter, Kathy, and her family.”
* Gov. Pat Quinn…
“Jane Byrne leaves a legacy of tireless service to Chicago that will never be forgotten.
“Her work on behalf of the city’s children and underserved communities has meant thousands of Chicago citizens are better off today because of Jane’s heartfelt dedication.
“The city’s first and only female mayor, Jane Byrne was a barrier breaker and a role model for countless women who had stared too long through the glass ceiling.
“She brought transparency to the city budget process, was Chicago’s first mayor to march in the Gay Pride Parade and was the nation’s first big-city mayor to successfully enact a ban on handguns.
“Renaming the Circle Interchange in honor of the former mayor has rightfully placed Jane Byrne among the city’s iconic leaders.
“Jane Byrne was a fearless trailblazer who has made our state a better place. She will be missed. Our thoughts are with her daughter Kathy, grandson William and their entire family today.”
* Secretary of State Jesse White…
The City of Chicago lost a dedicated public servant today in Mayor Jane Byrne. As Chicago’s first and only female mayor, Jane Byrne was a trailblazer. Her love for the city of Chicago was immeasurable.
My thoughts and prayers go out to her family and friends. Jane Byrne will be missed.
* Sen. Dick Durbin…
“When Jane Byrne moved into Cabrini Green, she proved Chicago’s first woman mayor was unafraid to tackle the city’s toughest problems head on. My thoughts and prayers go out to her family and friends.”
* Commissioner John Daley…
Mayor Jane Byrne was a courageous advocate for the City of Chicago. She was a trailblazer for women in public service, and her legacy will have a lasting impact on our great city.
On behalf of my family, I extend our deepest condolences to Jane’s daughter Kathy, her grandson William, and the entire Byrne family. Our thoughts and prayers are with them at this difficult time.
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[The following is a paid advertisement.]
“Chicago-based Exelon’s profit rose 26 percent in the third quarter…The country’s largest owner of nuclear power plants, Exelon reported net income of $993 million…”[Chicago Tribune, October 29, 2014 – emphasis added]
Just this past week, a Crain’s analysis revealed that contrary to their claims, Exelon may not be in dire straits after all:
“The analysis…raises questions about whether the state effectively will be asked to compel ratepayers to subsidize a profitable enterprise.” [Crain’s, October 27, 2014 – emphasis added]
Illinois’ businesses and citizens are still struggling. The last thing we need is a massive rate increase to bail out Exelon nuclear plants built during the Nixon administration and already paid for several times by ratepayers.
Even ComEd, Exelon’s own sister company, doesn’t agree with subsidized generation at above-market prices:
“ComEd has long believed that competitive markets will work in the best interests of our customers…so we are concerned about the negative impact on our customers from a requirement that would force utilities to buy subsidized generation at above-market prices.” [Crain’s Chicago Business, November 20, 2013]
Just Say No To Exelon’s $580 Million Rate Hike!!
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Rauner will be Madigan’s 8th governor
Friday, Nov 14, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From Kent Redfield…
Hi Rich,
You may have discussed this on the blog and I missed it, but I was talking to a lobbyist at bowling last night about how many governors Speaker Madigan has seen since he was elected to the General Assembly. Turns out, Bruce Rauner will be his 8th.
He was elected in 1970, two years into Ogilvie’s one term. When I started with the legislature in 1975 he was the Asst. Majority Leader and already cutting deals for the Mayor. When Speaker Redmond’s Majority Leader, Jerry Shea, did not run in 1976 he moved up to Majority Leader in 1977.
Ogilive
Walker - Asst. Majority Leader 1975
Thompson - Majority Leader 1977, Minority Leader 1981, Speaker 1983
Edgar
Ryan
Blagojevich
Quinn
Rauner
To watch 8 Governors come and go is just amazing.
Take care,
Kent
That’s just astonishing.
Redfield bowls with lobbyists?
/Snark
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* Departures from US Sen. Mark Kirk’s staff (either to Bruce Rauner’s staff or to the private sector) have prompted yet another round of speculation that Kirk isn’t running for reelection in 2016. Not so, says Kirk…
“No frickin’ way am I retiring,” he told CQ Roll Call in an exclusive interview Thursday from his Capitol Hill office, following some speculation in local press over the senator’s future and shifting political operation. ”With all this rehab, for me just to walk was a huge effort. I had to re-learn how to walk again after the stroke. And all the rehab and all the effort shows the mental determination times 10 to keep serving.”
In an extended interview, Kirk sought to dispel any notion this means he’s ready to leave — or that he lacks the stamina to seek re-election after suffering an ischemic stroke in January 2012. Kirk said he feels great, and any opponents who question his fitness to do so will regret it.
“That would not be taken well by the people of Illinois who would not like that kind of attack,” Kirk said. “That would be an advantage to me if they did that.” […]
“It’s the only way that Democrats can win in Illinois, is to say, ‘Ohhhh Kirk has health problems, he’s going to retire,’” Kirk said. “For Democrats looking at a minority life and seeing that they cannot win in Illinois is so frustrating that they will just assume away any issue. They’ll just say to willing reporters, ‘I think Kirk is going to retire.’” […]
“The other day, one of our CBS 2 reporters said, ‘Hey Kirk, every day I see you out there you have a calendar like a candidate,’” Kirk said. “I said, ‘That’s cause I is one.’”
*** UPDATE *** Oops. I didn’t see Lynn Sweet’s story…
Rep. Tammy Duckworth, D-Ill., is interested in a 2016 Senate run against Sen. Mark Kirk, R-Ill., but for now is focused on the impending birth of her daughter, who is due any day.
A member of Duckworth’s team — who is familiar with how Duckworth is approaching the possibility of a 2016 run — confirmed that Duckworth is “interested, open and curious” about a Senate bid and is receptive to having conversations about the race. […]
Duckworth is putting off looking at the race more seriously until she has her baby and knows everyone is healthy. Duckworth announced she was pregnant on Labor Day. […]
Besides Duckworth, Democrats mentioned are Rep. Bill Foster, Rep. Mike Quigley, Attorney General Lisa Madigan and state senators Andy Manar and Kwame Raoul. Foster is very, very interested. Madigan may be content to stay put and keep an eye on Rauner. Kirk could squish the relatively unknown state senators.
If AG Madigan runs and wins, Gov. Rauner would appoint her replacement. Wouldn’t that be a sight to behold?
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*** UPDATED x2 *** Depressing charts
Thursday, Nov 13, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
*** UPDATE 1 *** I agree that the New York Times made an error here. From a commenter…
I am thinking these numbers are not correct. There were 7,505,002 registered voters in the primary according to the IL Board of Elections. There were probably a few more in the general but not too many. Quickly just grabbing the Treasurer race numbers there were 3,486,159 votes so far. That’s 45.45% . So unless there was a big difference in registered voters from the primary(I doubt it) their numbers appear wrong.
And…
It actually goes up to 47.57% using the governor race results of 3,570,488 votes so far. That would get us top ten. But if Illinois numbers are wrong so could the other states.
Yep.
*** UPDATE 2 *** Ah, OK. From another commenter…
The NYT is reporting percentage of eligible adults, not registered voters. So the turnout is both 47.57% (of registered voters) and 39% (of eligible adults).
[ *** End Of Updates *** ]
* Man, turnout just sucked here. I mean, we were above the national average, but still…
If that’s accurate, it’s horrible for Illinois. 2010 turnout was 51 percent. 2006 was the worst turnout year since I don’t know when, but it was still 49 percent.
Also, why does Wisconsin get such a much higher turnout than Illinois?
* Here are the below average states…
So, we have one of the highest turnout states directly to our north, and the worst turnout state directly to our east.
* Nationally, 2014 was the worst American turnout year since 1942, when millions were overseas fighting wars…
* Congressional numbers…
And there you have it.
* Moving right along…
* Explanation…
This evidence suggests that polling bias has been largely unpredictable from election to election. Beyond the shadow of a doubt, the polling was biased against Democrats in 1998, 2006 and 2012. However, just as certainly, it was biased against Republicans in 1994, 2002 and now 2014. It can be dangerous to apply the “lessons” from one election cycle to the next one.
Turnout was a big reason for polling failure this year. The models were just wrong and you can only poll people who answer their phones.
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[The following is a paid advertisement.]
For over three decades, Citizen Action/Illinois has fought hard to protect consumers at both at the state and national levels.
Back in June, the Illinois General Assembly passed HB 4075 & 5331, bipartisan legislation that would provide basic consumer protections to passengers who use ridesharing companies, like making sure drivers have comprehensive police background checks, drug tests and carry sufficient insurance in case of an accident.
We support this legislation and believe it provides critical transportation protections for thousands of riders and drivers throughout Illinois. Unfortunately, Governor Quinn vetoed the bills.
Ride-sharing companies claim that following these basic consumer protection requirements will destroy their business model in Illinois.
Yet in California, Uber and Lyft have agreed to new insurance provisions that are higher than what is proposed in Illinois.
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Override Governor Quinn’s veto of HB 4075 & 5331 and provide common sense statewide protections for all Illinoisans.
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* Subscribers already knew about this…
No word yet on what they spoke about.
Guesses?
*** UPDATE 1 *** Tribune…
“I think we had a very productive meeting this morning,” Madigan said after a two-hour get-together at the private Chicago Club downtown. “I pledged to the governor that we’re going to work with him professionally.
“I think there’s a general agreement among the three of us that in light of the expiration of the tax increase in January, the biggest problem facing the state right now is the budget, and the budget deficit,” Madigan said. “And Gov. Rauner understands that and he’s working with his people to try and get a better understanding of precisely where the finances are on this current budget.”
Madigan said the Democratic leaders stressed the most pressing challenge is the $4 billion-a-year budget hole that will be created on Jan. 1 when portions of a temporary income tax increase are set to expire. Rauner, who takes over for defeated Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn on Jan. 12, campaigned to fully phase out the tax increase over four years.
Cullerton said Rauner offered no specific budget plans, saying the meeting was “more of a get-to-know-you” following a bruising campaign season. He added, “he was very nice.”
Go read the whole thing. There’s lots more.
*** UPDATE 2 *** I looks like the Tribune was tipped off about the meeting’s location, while the Sun-Times was shut out, but the CS-T does have some useful react…
“He repeated his request for no major action and on the issue of the minimum wage. The Senate President is going to be meeting with other members of the Senate Caucus to decide what kind of strategy for what we do and when. From our standpoint, we’ve got to talk to the caucus and see what they want to do,” he said. “This was a pretty cordial meeting, it went on for two hours. Our hope is that there will be a lot of room to work together. The fact that the meeting went on for two hours and we all came out OK, is probably a good step forward.”
Madigan spokesman Steve Brown said the Speaker was with Rauner from 9 a.m. to 11:30 a.m. –2 1/2 hours.
“The Speaker described it as a productive meeting and one where there was general consensus that the state budget will be one of the biggest challenges, given that the tax rate will be going down at the first of the year,” Brown said. “It was described as a productive, professional meeting.”
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* David Ormsby dug up a memo from House Speaker Michael Madigan to Democrats dated October 31st. The memo included details of the “Sporadic Voter Program,” which was designed to increase turnout…
Turning out Democratic voters who have a history of voting in presidential elections, but who did not vote in the 2010 election cycle, could prove to be a major key to victory for Democrats in 2014, particularly in close races.
Polling:
We began the sporadic voter program with polling to determine what issues would motivate sporadic voters to get to the polls during an off-year election cycle and which sporadic voters we could most easily motivate to come to the polls.
Mail:
Given the makeup of the sporadic universe, it was determined that the best way to specifically target these voters was to send mail directly to each voter. Our mail program focused on 4 distinct groups of voters:
* Chicago minority universe: 5 pieces to 177,228 households, targeting 195,958 individuals within these households. Overall, we mailed 886,140 pieces to this universe.
* Universe outside Personal PAC birth control universe: 5 pieces, including one social pressure piece, to 103,015 households, targeting 127,938 individuals within these households. Overall, we mailed 515,075 pieces to this universe.
* Downstate universe: 7 pieces to 56,418 households, targeting a total of 63,872 individuals within these households. Overall, we mailed 394,926 pieces to this universe.
* Statewide universe: 3 pieces, including one social pressure letter, to a universe of 324,204 households, targeting a total of 377,461 voters within these households. Overall, we mailed 972,612 pieces to this universe.
In total, we sent 2,768,753 pieces of mail for the campaign.
Digital:
Facebook, Twitter, YouTube and Pandora as well as video and display ads were matched from the voter file… The advertising has resulted in more than 79 million impressions to date, … including 5 million views of our television commercials online. By Election Day there will be more than 120 million impressions to our targeted universe.
None of it worked.
* But there’s something that Madigan and other Democrats appear to have overlooked. The Chicago Board of Elections is obviously woefully underfunded.
Remember the tales of one to two-hour waits during early voting? There’s no better way to depress turnout than making people stand in line for two hours. Lots and lots of people just don’t have the patience or commitment to endure something like that.
Mayor Emanuel, members of the city council and many others were enraged by the GOP robocall effort that they believed caused lots of Republican election judges to skip election day, thereby causing confusion and long lines.
OK, maybe that happened, maybe not. But the hard truth is there are always long lines on election day in the city. The Board typically recruits and trains 10,000 judges or so. They need more judges to speed up the process.
People ride by the polling place in the morning and see long lines and can’t vote because they’ll be late for work. They wait until after work and see even longer lines and just give up and go home.
* And remember the city’s same-day registration/voting problems? Some people waited in line until 3 o’clock in the morning to vote. Who knows how many more saw those lines and walked away.
Why did this happen? Well, the new state law mandated a minimum number of same day polling places. Cook County opened far more than the minimum requirements and didn’t have the sort of problems faced by Chicago, which operated at the bare minimum level.
* In contrast, there’s almost never a line at my polling place. This year, three people were waiting in front of me and I was astonished. If the line had snaked out the front door and wrapped around the building, as it often does in Chicago, I probably wouldn’t have voted and made a mental note to vote early or by mail next time.
I absolutely hate long lines. This goes back to the days when my parents worked for the Department of Defense overseas and we were forced to wait in endless lines to buy just about anything or to accomplish any government-related task. I told myself I would never, ever work for the federal government when I grew up. No more lines!
I cannot possibly be alone in this.
So, Speaker, Mayor, City Council, whomever, if you want more people to vote in Chicago next time, find more money to hire more judges and open more polling places to reduce the freakishly long lines.
This ain’t rocket science!
/rant
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* The Sun-Times editorial board is hopeful that the man they helped elect governor will now pursue some “sensible” gun control laws…
Rauner must build a bridge to Democratic leaders such as Senate President John Cullerton — a strong proponent of sensible gun measures — if he hopes to have any chance of achieving his ambitious agenda of financial, budgetary and business reforms. This is his bargaining chip. This is how true bipartisanship in Springfield begins.
Even the most obviously worthy and unthreatening gun-control measures, such as strengthening penalties for folks who fail to report when a gun is lost or stolen, will never become law in Illinois without bipartisan support. Democrats don’t have the votes to do it alone, and members of both parties, especially Downstate, fear the wrath of the extremist NRA. But a Republican governor unbeholden to the gun lobby, one who appeals directly to the good conscience of Illinois gun owners — who, according to surveys, are much more open to gun reforms than the NRA leadership — can build real bipartisanship.
The thing about Cullerton is he’s always willing and open to cutting a deal. It’s in his bones. So, they may have a point.
* The paper asked the Rauner campaign for a response…
“Bruce supports background checks and measures that keep guns away from criminals and the mentally ill. He looks forward to working with the General Assembly on common-sense proposals that keep our citizens safe while respecting law-abiding citizens.”
How should we take that?
Most likely it’s just the usual noncommittal nothing that his team perfected to a high art during the campaign.
But the statement did say “looks forward to working” with the Legislature on “common-sense proposals.”
Just maybe that’s the sound of an opening door.
Or not.
But Rauner did say repeatedly during the campaign that Gov. Quinn had “failed” on the crime issue. It’s on him now to fix it.
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Illinoisans to Tea Party: Meh
Thursday, Nov 13, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* More from that poll by the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute…
The poll also showed that while Illinoisans remain tax averse, it appears the appeal of the Tea Party movement has waned somewhat since the Simon Poll first asked about it.
• In 2010, four in ten respondents (41.2 percent) agreed or strongly agreed with the Tea Party, compared with just 20.7 percent in 2014. However, disagreement didn’t jump as much as agreement fell; 36.4 percent disagreed or strongly disagreed with the Tea Party in 2010, compared with 38.4 percent today.
The difference, so to speak, is indifference. One in five (19.4 percent) expressed no opinion of the Tea Party in 2010, while almost twice as many (36.9 percent) had no opinion in 2014.
• Similarly, while a third of respondents (33.1 percent) in 2010 said they would be more likely to vote for a Tea Party candidate, that number fell to about one in five (20.7 percent) in 2014.
Indifference is right. That crowd had little voice in this year’s election.
I think it’ll be fascinating watching various conservative groups react to Bruce Rauner’s administration. He not only has the money to fend off any and all attacks from his right flank, but that mountain of cash can be really intimidating.
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