75 Comments - Facts are Stubborn Things - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 1:11 pm: Revenue is needed, but both sides don’t want to be the first to go there and get blamed for it. The dems have said they want revenue, but they are not going to go it alone and Rauner has agreed but for cover he wants his “turn around agenda” which the dems are not going to do. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 1:12 pm: Math is math is math… is Math. Rauner is letting the battles cloud the vision of the numbers. Turnaround Agenda, 1,6, 3 passed, the GOP GA will be 67 “green” on a revnue increase. The good part is that all 67 will get their money from Rauner real soon, lol - Facts are Stubborn Things - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 1:17 pm: I still say the dems should call for a vote a balance budget with new revenue, but a budget with real cuts and controls. Put the really safe democratic votes on it but make sure it does not pass. There would be zero republicans and a certain number of dems such that the dems can say we can not do any more lifting then this without some republican votes. Challenge Rauner to put some votes and get this whole thing done. Offer to Rauner that if he would put his turn around agenda in bill form the bills will come out of committee and have real debate and get a real up or down vote….elections matter. - the Other Anonymous - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 1:20 pm: I think it all comes down to Rauner’s big mistake right after he got elected. Instead of playing the Dad who says, “Don’t you kids touch anything until I get home!” he should have insisted that Quinn and the Dems fix the state budget for FY2015 before he took office. That would mean continuing the 5% income tax rate with just Democratic votes (even if it was for just the rest of FY2015). Rauner could easily then spin anything he did as a tax cut, even if the tax rate was only down to 4.75%. But he didn’t. I can only explain his behavior with the Dad analogy used above. Well, he put himself in a situation where he is vulnerable to charges of raising taxes, and it was entirely foreseeable (and commenters on this site did foresee) that Madigan would do everything in his power to pin a tax hike squarely on Rauner. But here’s the thing: as Willy said, math is . . . math. The shortfall happens to be less than the amount of revenue we lost because the income tax rate went down. There’s almost nothing in the remaining parts of the budget that can be cut without serious pain to the most vulnerable. A 3.75% income tax rate is simply unsustainable, and Rauner has to know it. And he put himself in the situation where he has to sign something that can only be described as a tax hike by loudly insisting that the GA allow the tax rate to go down. - Ducky LaMoore - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 1:26 pm: Ross Perot with a Chicago accent. I like it. - James - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 1:27 pm: Take the state income tax to 15%. It still doesn’t put a dent in the long term pension obligations. Hello Detroit part II. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 1:28 pm: I’m surprised (and pleased) to see that pension payments are on the ‘What is being spent’ list. I don’t remember hearing about a vote on this. Did I miss it, or are the payments automatic (in the absence of legislation not to make them)? - James - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 1:28 pm: The state senate has a veto proof supermajority. they don’t need Rauner to do anything. Its just a big show. - CB - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 1:30 pm: Until one of these “leaders” presents a balance budget this is all just fodder for the press. The Gov, MJM or Cullerton should present a balanced budget and stop these games. But it looks like nobody want to ‘lead”. - Wordslinger - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 1:30 pm: It would appear that the hostages are down to, for fhe most part, hospitals, nursing homes, universities, social service providers and group health participants. They don’t rate when it comes to the importance of the governor’s agenda. What’s with this guy and nursing homes, anyway? - Roamin' Numeral - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 1:31 pm: @James, When every single state employee retires on the exact same day, I’ll worry about your concerns. - UIC Guy - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 1:34 pm: Sorry, Anonymous 1:28 was me: new hard drive on my computer, memory wiped out. Is it possible that James is really as ignorant (is that a banned word? I have other ways of saying it)as his comments suggest? Or is he making some subtle point that escapes me? - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 1:36 pm: Do not feed trolls. - 4 percent - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 1:36 pm: @ Facts Elections do matter and Rauner won. Illinois is a blue state but the Speaker and Senate President continue their supermajorities largely due to the maps that they drew. I think they would have smaller majorities with a truly fair map. - Daniel Plainview - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 1:37 pm: - What’s with this guy and nursing homes, anyway? - He got out of that business, so funding is no longer important to him. - James - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 1:38 pm: @Roamin’Numeral Yes, we’ll just tax the wealthy to make up the deficit! Math is HARD. Illinois is worst in the nation in total tax obligation. When they’re raised again, I’ll leave, just like everyone else. And again, the people who were promised benefits that were ridiculous and unaffordable in exchange for votes will end up with 10 cents on the dollar. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 1:40 pm: ===…Illinois is a blue state…=== 6 Constitutionals, split 3-3, U.S. Senators, split. Congress? 10/8 Dems, not lopsided, and Bost and Dold flipped seats. Being a victim is tough… ===I think they would have smaller majorities with a truly fair map.=== MJM beat a GOP map 4 of 5 times. So… - the Other Anonymous - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 1:40 pm: – Take the state income tax to 15%. It still doesn’t put a dent in the long term pension obligations. – Well, uh, no. As Roamin’ Numeral points out, it’s not like we owe the full pension debt tomorrow. When the tax rate was at 5% we were making the actuarially required pension payment. We can continue to do that at last year’s income tax rates — you know, the rate that Rauner specifically asked the GA to let expire. - Fireman - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 1:42 pm: So most the money for FY 16 is already spent, right? That just reaffirms my belief that a lump-sum budget is the only way out of this mess — both politically and governmentally. Dems can blame Rauner for making the cuts when their core constituents go crazy. Rauner can brandish his national reputation with conservatives by being the only adult in Illinois government who is willing to make tough decisions and spend only what comes in. It won’t be pretty, but that is as close as each side is going to get to a “win.” - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 1:44 pm: ===Take the state income tax to 15%.=== Do not feed trolls. - Cassandra - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 1:44 pm: We’ve established that both the Democrats and Rauner really, really, really want to raise income taxes on (mostly) the middle class. The Democrats out of tradition, and Rauner out of, shall we say, remoteness from the ordinary economic life of US citizens. But is it a good idea to raise them around Christmas time. Or right after Xmas, when the bills come in? Especially if they are retroactive to…July 1? Folks might actually remember come election time. Another reason to take a deep breath and transfer some more wealth away from folks like me quick. - James - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 1:46 pm: Illinois now faces a $9 billion annual deficit that will grow to $14 billion by FY 2026. Bringing back the 2011 tax increase would close only about one-quarter of the gap projected for the next several years. Again, math is hard. People will leave. Pensioners get 10 cents on the dollar in a bankruptcy and the state economy implodes. not hard. - Louis G Atsaves - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 1:50 pm: So this chart, once we factor in spending and income already in place, shows the balance to be funded is $5 billion short of expenses? Ouch! - Wordslinger - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 1:50 pm: DP, properly providing for nursing homes wasn’t a priority when he was in the business. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 1:52 pm: - Louis G Atsaves -, We could use a governor about now… - Joe M - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 1:54 pm: ==Until one of these “leaders” presents a balance budget this is all just fodder for the press== Article VIII, Section 2 of the Illinois Constitution states that it is the Governors responsibility to present a budget that is balanced, to the General Assembly. The General Assembly is still waiting on the Governor’s balanced budget. - Anon - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 1:55 pm: There are too many state workers, we shouldnt be spending that much on salaries. - dupage dan - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 2:01 pm: So Cullerton claims he is not necessarily supporting a tax increase - he just wants the governor to present a budget to the GA. Cullerton has been around for a long time. He counts on many folks to not be paying attention, I guess. EVERYONE knows there is a massive gap between expected revenue and expected spending, no matter how you slice up the pie. Folks who pay attention here know what is happening, what is being done. One side wants the other to blink first and propose the tax increase so the other side can be pinned with the blame. The dem supermajority caucus would just love for Rauner (the 6 month governor) to be blamed for what has ailed Illinois for decades. Who is Cullerton kidding? I know, I know, it’s all about math. I know Rauner is bad for Illinois - I get that. Let’s play make believe. Let’s pretend Rauner has - POOR - disappeared. Who does the GA blame now? - John A Logan - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 2:01 pm: It’s a nice pie chart. Anyone check to make sure its got the “union bug” on it? - dupage dan - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 2:01 pm: POOF, not POOR. - Daniel Plainview - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 2:04 pm: - DP, properly providing for nursing homes wasn’t a priority when he was in the business. - No doubt, but Government funding was. - CB - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 2:04 pm: Joe M you are paraphrasing the Constitution it states… “The Governor shall prepare and submit to the General Assembly, at a time prescribed by law, a State budget for the ensuing fiscal year……Proposed expenditures shall not exceed funds estimated to be available for the fiscal year as shown in the budget.” The Gov. did this because he over stated the estimated revenue due to changes he wanted in the pension system of the State. So he technically did his job. More games just like the approp. bills passed by the House and Senate which were not “balanced” either with appropriate revenue. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 2:04 pm: - dupage dan -, Rauner isn’t going anywhere, so… … now what? - cez - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 2:06 pm: Anon….the “Federally “funded ACA programs required additional staff to implement it.If I am not mistaken..state received federal monies for new hires,new computer programs, training etc. (I do not know specifics.) - nixit71 - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 2:06 pm: The dark green slice of the pie is only going to get bigger and bigger. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 2:06 pm: - CB -, The pension savings Rauner proposed was based on a sham. It was never balanced. You’re welcome. - nona - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 2:07 pm: === MJM beat a GOP map 4 of 5 times. So… === And that was in the 90s when the state was less blue than it is today. Given the inexorable demographic change, and what Trump is doing to the GOP brand among nonwhites, a fair map would inevitably favor Dems. - Honeybear - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 2:07 pm: Anon, totally wrong. We are 48th in number of state workers per capita. We lose any more and we will totally lose function. The state is operating on a skeleton crew. - burbanite - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 2:08 pm: When Quinn first became governor and was touting a huge tax increase, I thought it was stupid, he would have been better off asking for say, 1% the first year another 1% the next until it got to the right level, because that way we would be collecting the extra 1% for a longer period of time. The governor asked that they let the increase lapse, this has cost I don’t know how much since January. As OW says, he owns it. It was not a smart move on his part and some day he may realize it, but its too late. - CB - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 2:09 pm: Oswego Willey Agreed more games but “technically” in compliance with the Constitution. That’s my point. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 2:11 pm: I am sure both sides to this issue are proud of themselves for their political acumen and “toughness” to date, but many citizens have no clue (nor do they care) about the exciting thrust and parry of the political combatants- they only know that their lives are being disrupted and they economically keep falling farther and farther behind the moneyed folks. Their marches on the statehouse sway no one, and they are of no use to a politician until a token (disabled person, minority individual, homeless person, etc.) is needed for a photo op. I have to deal with politicians in my job, but once I retire, I hope to never have an interaction with any of them. - tominchicago - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 2:11 pm: “I know, I know, it’s all about math. I know Rauner is bad for Illinois - I get that. Let’s play make believe. Let’s pretend Rauner has - POOR - disappeared. Who does the GA blame now?” Under the constitution, I think that honor would fall to Slip and Sue. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 2:14 pm: - CB -, if it was a game by the governor, how disingenuous is it that Rauner, providing a sham budget, refuses to submit a true budget? - nona -, Sounds swell, but the US Senate split, Constitutionals split, 10/8 Dem “majority”, tough to make a case for blue state superiority. Further, maybe “Native Son” Obama running made POTUS numbers off the charts? The GOP GA ineptitude is about them more and “voters and maps” less. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 2:17 pm: ===Under the constitution, I think that honor would fall to Slip and Sue.=== If we’re up to ole Slip and Sue as our next option, maybe voting for some of the Turnaround Agenda might not look “as” bad(?) - Ahoy! - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 2:17 pm: The State essentially spends the same amount on pensions as it does for education, blame what you will but that is just awful for a state’s finances. - DuPage - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 2:20 pm: Rauner demanded the 5% state income tax rate be allowed to drop. He specifically stated the shortfall was not due to the reduction in the tax rate, and he could easily eliminate waste and inefficiency to balance the budget. Wrong on everything! Rauner has proven he can’t handle it without more revenue, but is afraid to admit it. Until Rauner admits that he needs more revenue, Madigan and Cullerton should not compromise with Rauner. - Roamin' Numeral - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 2:22 pm: ==The State essentially spends the same amount on pensions as it does for education, blame what you will but that is just awful for a state’s finances.== Correct, it is. But the normal cost of our pension system isn’t much better or worse than other states’ systems. Our problem began when we started taking “pension holidays.” Not properly funding the system is what caused the problem, and the only way to solve that part of it is to pay it down. And that takes money. Tax dollars. - Joe M - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 2:26 pm: CB, it doesn’t make any difference that the Governor miscalculated pension expenditures (intentionally or unintentionally) - He knows now what the Supreme Court ruling is - and time for him to go back to the drawing board and re-submit a balanced budget. - dupage dan - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 2:30 pm: OW…..”now what?” We wait until “someone” blinks. I wonder what the Vegas line is on that? - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 2:34 pm: - dupage dan -, All I can figure is “don’t hold your breath”. - RNUG - had the over/under as October(?) “Over” looks good. - VanillaMan - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 2:35 pm: The Gov. did this because he over stated the estimated revenue due to changes he wanted in the pension system of the State. So he technically did his job. LOL! - The Dude Abides - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 2:50 pm: @Ahoy, the reason the pension payments are so high is because of a law known as the pension ramp, which went into effect under Edgar. It was drawn up so that the state could continue the practice of borrowing from the pension fund. The payment schedule was back loaded and the high payments are now due. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 2:54 pm: “The State essentially spends the same amount on pensions as it does for education, blame what you will but that is just awful for a state’s finances.” Pensions are part of the contractual compensation and benefit package that teachers receive day one. As such, their funding does not exist alone in a “vacuum” and IS a part of “education” funding. - Joe M - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 2:55 pm: Since the Supreme Court ruling about the last pension law, I think most people will accept that the Governor was counting on $2.2 billion in pension savings to balance his budget - and those savings don’t exist. Not mentioned as frequently is that Rauner’s, and from what I’ve read the General Assembly’s passed budget - both rely on an additional $700,000 in savings from cuts to the health insurance to nearly 362,000 people are enrolled in the state employees group health insurance plan — which covers both state and university workers — including active employees, retirees and dependents. Rauner has proposed a huge increase in premiums - and dropping coverage to 60/40, with the state insurance members having to pick up the 40% of medical bills. That health insurance coverage and premiums are still being negotiated in the AFSCME contract. Thus, it is not certain that Rauner can count on that money either. Since his insurance proposals are so drastic, if he sticks to them, there may be labor relations suits that Rauner is not bargaining in good faith - or SB 1229 also has a chance of getting enough votes to override the Governor’s veto. Either way, some kind of arbitration could end up happening - thus eliminating all or some of those cuts/savings Rauner used to “balance” his initial budget. And lets not forget, Rauner’s “balanced budget also has a 31% cut to higher ed, a 50% cut to cities, municipalities and counties - and of course all of the social program cuts that are being protested. At some point Rauner needs to own up to his budget with all of its cuts - and not rely on savings that may not be there. - Honeybear - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 3:01 pm: Joe M, SB1229 is 4 Republicans short of getting an override. It’s not going to happen SB1229 will fail. AFSCME is going to strike over it. - Joe M - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 3:09 pm: Honeybear, you may be right about SB1229 not making it through an override, but when 362,000 folks that are part of the state insurance system realize the extent of the health ins cuts, they may put pressure a few GOP legislators in districts with large populations of state employees. That is pretty much the same question with the overall budget and any overrides - if things get bad enough, will some GOP members defect to the side of the Democrats - or will some Democrats defect to the side of the GOP? - Honeybear - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 3:21 pm: Flipping 4 Republicans on sb1229 were the marching orders. (AFSCME) I don’t see it happening. Unfortunately I don’t see 362,000 people getting it and pressuring before the battle (strike) begins in the early days of August. - Honeybear - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 3:22 pm: Oh and it’s 700million that he’s trying to shove down our throats. - Keyser Soze - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 3:30 pm: Carve $3.5 billion out and then go home. - Cassandra - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 3:32 pm: I believe that Rauner has acknowledged the need for more revenue. He wants to raise income taxes. Talk of broader sales taxes has lessened recently, so it seems that mostly he wants to raise taxes on middle class income, and, presumably, corporate taxes as well. He might like to leave the corporate tax where it is, but I doubt that’s politically feasible. As soon as the Democrats, on the same page re: raising income taxes, give him the most modest of face-saving concessions on his non-budget agenda, a budget will be passed. I’m hoping for property tax reform, but Democrats (at least the ones in my suburb) love property taxes too, so maybe not. The only question left is how long before the Dems give Rauner something. It won’t even have to be that massive. That’s all we’re waiting for. - Old and In the Way - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 3:54 pm: - James - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 1:46 pm: Illinois now faces a $9 billion annual deficit that will grow to $14 billion by FY 2026. Bringing back the 2011 tax increase would close only about one-quarter of the gap projected for the next several years. Again, math is hard. People will leave. Pensioners get 10 cents on the dollar in a bankruptcy and the state economy implodes. not hard. James you are neither an economist nor an expert on the Illinois budget. Your debt amount is wrong. Your notion that the state pension funds can go bankrupt is wrong. (The State of Illinois cannot go bankrupt- US Constitution) Finally your idea of taxing the wealthy is solid! Oh, one more thing, don’t let the door hit you in the butt when you leave……… - Anonymous - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 3:59 pm: ~~The only question left is how long before the Dems give Rauner something. It won’t even have to be that massive. That’s all we’re waiting for. ~~~ Rauner sure has a funny way of askin’ - JS Mill - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 4:01 pm: =Again, math is hard. People will leave. Pensioners get 10 cents on the dollar in a bankruptcy and the state economy implodes.= Except not. To the chart- interesting they have debt service (in orange) and pensions (dark green) listed the way they do. Fully $5 billion of that pension cost is for Debt Service. He needs to make a correction but that does not support the narrative he has been on for the last 4 years. Cassandra- they all like property taxes, even if they say they do not. They all have willingly shifted state obligations to the local governments- particularly school funding. takes the political heat off of them, allows them to complain about it too, allows them to be a white night and provide “reform” as you call it,AND still not meet their obligations. - Arthur Andersen - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 4:13 pm: Old, I think “James” got hold of one of Dick Ingram’s the sky is falling PowerPoints that he spread around awhile back. Further, the ramp period is over. Finally. The annual payments for pensions will not be rising at the previous rate. - JS Mill - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 4:27 pm: AA- I thought we had one more year of the ramp? to roughly $7.5 billion, No? - cdog - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 4:37 pm: Looks like the impending constitutional Rauner Budget Proposal will include a 35% cut of every thing that is left. That is what the “corporate class” wants, that’s what the “corporate class” gets. BVR will own it, unless he gets busy finding some non-union busting compromise. - cdog - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 4:38 pm: Just so the math is clear. $15B - 35% = $10B - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 4:42 pm: ===$15B - 35% = $10B === Yeah, but you can only cut so much outta Medicaid. And that’s almost $8 billion. So you gotta cut $5 billion of the $7 billion remaining. 71 percent. - Wordslinger - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 4:44 pm: DD, if you’ve been paying attention, you must know that the governor does not wish to deal with the remainder of the budget until his other items have been addressed to his satisfaction. Every time he speaks in public, he says this. The remainder of the budget is not among the top five priorities in the governor’s publicly stated legislative agenda. - cdog - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 4:48 pm: whew. Here is the HEADLINE. GOV RAUNER BUDGET CUTS 71% FROM HIGHER ED AND HUMAN SERVICES Do you think this guy sleeps well? - Wordslinger - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 5:16 pm: – So you gotta cut $5 billion of the $7 billion remaining, 71 percent.– And some claim that fact represents “leverage” to pursue an agenda whose main elements have not been shown to enjoy any legislative or public support. The governor is even afraid to discuss them in real terms, masking them in the meaningless weasel word of “reform.” What in the governor’s actions to date would lead anyone to believe he’s willing to take the heat and whack social services and higher ed by 71 percent? Who believes that’s a credible threat, based on prior flips? It’s not leverage, it’s not even a bluff. It’s a joke. - cdog - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 5:27 pm: I don’t think the Rauner playbook was very well crafted. If he had planned that the General Assembly was going to do these cuts for him or unilaterally raise taxes, all to avoid the union-eating monster he wanted to unleash from under his bed, he really miscalculated. At this point, why would anyone in the GA help the guy? All he is going to do is paper bomb them, and TV ad pummel them, insult them, and constantly repeat untruth, with the help of his uni-man-cash. Keep sending him little pieces of appropriation. Keep asking him for a full and balanced budget. Keep reminding the citizens that his non-budget items are destructive to many and only benefit the “corporate class.” - RNUG - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 7:22 pm: == There are too many state workers, we shouldn’t be spending that much on salaries. == Do you realize how much the state workforce has declined since 2000? Use Google, come back with the answer, and then come up with a new argument. - RNUG - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 7:24 pm: == The Gov. did this because he over stated the estimated revenue due to changes he wanted in the pension system of the State. == -CB- No. He did did not overstate revenue. What he did was understate the expense for the pensions by approximately $2.3B, savings we now know he can not achieve. - RNUG - Wednesday, Jul 22, 15 @ 7:25 pm: == The State essentially spends the same amount on pensions as it does for education, blame what you will but that is just awful for a state’s finances. == -Ahoy- Yes, because the State DID NOT spend the correct amount on pensions for at least 45 years (more like between 60 and 100) and must now make up the shortfall. Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.