Based on the lawmakers I’ve talked to, it’s highly unlikely it’ll happen before January. Education funding was the big pressure point, and with that off, I think they’re going to let it ride out for quite a while longer.
I’m almost always wrong with these kinds of predictions, but I voted September. As Rich and others, especially Charlie Wheeler, have pointed out, the mess gets harder to fix with each passing day. Even if they simply agree to disagree on anti-worker “reforms” and Rauner rules out a tax increase, they need a budget in place so that current spending can be curtailed and we don’t pile on about $6-7 billion this year.
Let Rauner take his ball and go home, but only after he tells us where he’s going to find these huge cuts.
“Plenty of lame ducks looking for a job”
Many of those lame duck Republicans who were defeated by Rauner’s money. How would they vote as a lame duck following Durkin’s orders?
I have no clue, but voted never because I figured that they would just start going with short term funding bills after a while.
If the AFSME veto is overturned, Rauner really doesn’t have a reason to broker a deal on a budget and every house Democrat will have an election before he does. Because of rigged elections, the Democrats will keep their majority but they will not keep their super majority nor will they have ever seen the type of money they will be up against.
December. With Frank Capra on TV and lights and garland and holiday cheer why wouldn’t everyone want to get along? Maybe it happens at Ald. Burke’s house amid a group chorus of “Auld Lang Syne.”
Is higher ed funding the next major pressure point? If colleges and universities can’t open for the spring 2016 semester, things will get way uglier in a hurry.
I think the House will override the AFSCME mandatory arbitration veto, thereby taking the wind out of the Governor’s sails. That will mark the beginning of the end of this current battle royal for Rauner. He will find a way to back into a budget deal while trying to save face, and eventually we will wrap it up in January.
I say November, since by then all agencies not dependent on Federal money will be literally shuttered due to the lack of spending authority…and no vendor willing to carry the state anymore. Need a pencil…better bring one from home…need to go somewhere as part of your job - drive your own car, cause’ the WEX card don’t work. Pathetic.
My guess is a week after it becomes a hard shutdown. When the state can’t procure goods and services for doc etc. I’m guessing november is when we hit that spot.
Never, override or no override. There won’t be a budget until the GA can effective hobble Rauner, and that won’t happen until the GA GOP magically remembers that its part of an independent branch of government.
I’m not saying that the GA GOPs has to become toadies of Madigan. I’m saying that they need to quit being toadies of Rauner.
So long as Rauner can keep the lights on and wage his war against reality there will be no budget.
- Judgment Day (on the road) - Wednesday, Sep 2, 15 @ 2:55 pm:
December (earliest) if House override passes.
IF the override passes, then there’s no reason for Rauner to do anything regarding tax increases. Pressure’s off - for the moment.
At that point, the next pressure points involve funding issues for CPS, City of Chicago, and Cook County.
By December, the State’s finances are virtually bone dry (meaning there’s no money for Chicago & CPS), and late December, 2015 is when the property tax levies have to be filed (schools are an exception).
So, force the tax levies to be filed (VERY, VERY large increases) and with no state money, it’s all on the Chicago Democrats to deal with property tax increases that could be as high as 45% (City of Chicago/CPS; See Nuveen Investments study on local property tax obligations for City of Chicago/CPS). Ouch!
Rauner will be able to make the Chicago Democrats own the local property tax increases going into an election cycle. Has the funds available to do it. Very ugly.
Or the Chicago Democrats could pass legislation to break the CTU bargaining ability. That would be interesting….
There’s all sorts of angles out there to consider. Can’t just use a linear thought process with all these angles.
October. Not sure if I care anymore. Our funding will be reduced from the level indicated in the bill the governor signed. We will hang in there, somehow.
This is the old “blink” game. Who is going to blink first. With the cast of characters (Rauner, Madigan & Cullerton) with the big egos all three have and the attitude of “I only care for MYSELF and no one else in this State” how can this ever be resolved. I vote for the resignations of all three (for the betterment of this State and the occupants of it) and start all over with three new faces. Would one EVER think these three selfish men would go for that? The word LEADER is not in their vocabulary nor could they even spell it. I will give them a hint……it stars with an L and ends with an R. Oops…this all started with an “R”. Go figure!
I like those who pick a month. What do they know that no one else knows? Geeeeesh!! The crystal ball went out of style years ago. NEVER is the appropriate answer considering the actual evidence at this point. I agree with this “Blink” guy.
Everyone is talking about when the money dries up in January. While that is true for all the programs out there where there is a court order to pay. But the agencies have no more money to spend on basic office supplies and postage. From what I can tell that will happen by the end of September. Any thoughts on that?
Maybe the key players can take a page from history and declare a Christmas truce.
- To Just Wondering - Wednesday, Sep 2, 15 @ 4:12 pm:
The problem is that the money NEVER dries up for people like Rauner, Cullerton and/or Madigan. Do you think these guys live paycheck to paycheck. Do you really think they care for John Q. Illinois citizen who does. If you believe they do would you like to buy a bridge? WOW!!!
Going with January, because it won’t take a supermajority. I also predict that it will not include a tax increase and will be way out of balance. If you are looking for a final budget, I don’t think I can predict the correct decade.
Who do you think should be in charge. Don’t say that and not offer an alternative answer or are you a State Senator, Representative or God forbid the Governor. Just asking……an answer, please.
When the courts decide. With a $5B hole you gotta put cash away for bonds, pension and other mandated pays for April-June. That means December funds get chopped and Judge Coleman starts smacking people with contempt. Until then its finger pointing while the peasants lose.
DOC’s freezers are starting to get low. That may be the next crisis if courts don’t fix yet another issue for our fine leaders. I fear tonight’s win by Gov will further embolden if DOC’s pantry gets filled in next 30 days it will be January
- lost in the weeds - Wednesday, Sep 2, 15 @ 11:27 pm:
- Tournaround Agenda - Wednesday, Sep 2, 15 @ 1:44 pm:
Based on the lawmakers I’ve talked to, it’s highly unlikely it’ll happen before January. Education funding was the big pressure point, and with that off, I think they’re going to let it ride out for quite a while longer.
- DDR - Wednesday, Sep 2, 15 @ 1:44 pm:
That’s after the primary so there’ll be plenty of lame ducks looking for jobs
- the Other Anonymous - Wednesday, Sep 2, 15 @ 1:46 pm:
FY2016: The year without a budget.
- Casual observer - Wednesday, Sep 2, 15 @ 1:46 pm:
New session, new rules in January.
- Anon - Wednesday, Sep 2, 15 @ 1:47 pm:
“When elected officials are fined and or jailed for contempt of court.”
Otherwise, I voted January — mostly because that’s when I’m guessing the money would get super tight.
- 47th Ward - Wednesday, Sep 2, 15 @ 1:49 pm:
I’m almost always wrong with these kinds of predictions, but I voted September. As Rich and others, especially Charlie Wheeler, have pointed out, the mess gets harder to fix with each passing day. Even if they simply agree to disagree on anti-worker “reforms” and Rauner rules out a tax increase, they need a budget in place so that current spending can be curtailed and we don’t pile on about $6-7 billion this year.
Let Rauner take his ball and go home, but only after he tells us where he’s going to find these huge cuts.
- A Jack - Wednesday, Sep 2, 15 @ 1:52 pm:
I think things will start coming together in October if SB 1229 is overridden. Otherwise, possibly never.
- From the 'Dale to HP - Wednesday, Sep 2, 15 @ 1:52 pm:
January… though a CTU strike could push it up a few months.
CPS and Chicago is a major problem and the state is going to have to address them at some point.
- Casual observer - Wednesday, Sep 2, 15 @ 1:53 pm:
“Plenty of lame ducks looking for a job”
Many of those lame duck Republicans who were defeated by Rauner’s money. How would they vote as a lame duck following Durkin’s orders?
- anon - Wednesday, Sep 2, 15 @ 1:53 pm:
March is when they run out of money.
- Ahoy! - Wednesday, Sep 2, 15 @ 1:56 pm:
I have no clue, but voted never because I figured that they would just start going with short term funding bills after a while.
If the AFSME veto is overturned, Rauner really doesn’t have a reason to broker a deal on a budget and every house Democrat will have an election before he does. Because of rigged elections, the Democrats will keep their majority but they will not keep their super majority nor will they have ever seen the type of money they will be up against.
- 35/Shields - Wednesday, Sep 2, 15 @ 1:59 pm:
December. With Frank Capra on TV and lights and garland and holiday cheer why wouldn’t everyone want to get along? Maybe it happens at Ald. Burke’s house amid a group chorus of “Auld Lang Syne.”
- A guy - Wednesday, Sep 2, 15 @ 2:00 pm:
Any choice is a guess. I’m just hoping. I’m not realistic about September, but I am full of hope.
- chad - Wednesday, Sep 2, 15 @ 2:06 pm:
I think it goes until after the primary, when a few folks vulnerable to intra-party warfare can protect themselves.
- Stones - Wednesday, Sep 2, 15 @ 2:08 pm:
The last time you posed this question I also answered October. No particular reason other than it feels right.
- Old Shepherd - Wednesday, Sep 2, 15 @ 2:11 pm:
Is higher ed funding the next major pressure point? If colleges and universities can’t open for the spring 2016 semester, things will get way uglier in a hurry.
- Bogey Golfer - Wednesday, Sep 2, 15 @ 2:13 pm:
Flipped a coin between October and November - November won.
- Levois - Wednesday, Sep 2, 15 @ 2:13 pm:
There should be an option for I don’t know. Serious answer, how often are there stalemates in Springfield that seem to never have a resolution.
- D.P.Gumby - Wednesday, Sep 2, 15 @ 2:15 pm:
Never. If it’s gone this long…
- My two - Wednesday, Sep 2, 15 @ 2:17 pm:
I think the House will override the AFSCME mandatory arbitration veto, thereby taking the wind out of the Governor’s sails. That will mark the beginning of the end of this current battle royal for Rauner. He will find a way to back into a budget deal while trying to save face, and eventually we will wrap it up in January.
- Hickory - Wednesday, Sep 2, 15 @ 2:18 pm:
The courts are in charge (should not be) so a budget isn’t needed.
- Captain Illini - Wednesday, Sep 2, 15 @ 2:22 pm:
I say November, since by then all agencies not dependent on Federal money will be literally shuttered due to the lack of spending authority…and no vendor willing to carry the state anymore. Need a pencil…better bring one from home…need to go somewhere as part of your job - drive your own car, cause’ the WEX card don’t work. Pathetic.
- Mason born - Wednesday, Sep 2, 15 @ 2:23 pm:
My guess is a week after it becomes a hard shutdown. When the state can’t procure goods and services for doc etc. I’m guessing november is when we hit that spot.
- siriusly - Wednesday, Sep 2, 15 @ 2:27 pm:
I voted November, I think maybe after candidate filing. Maybe. If not then I vote never.
- Nick Name - Wednesday, Sep 2, 15 @ 2:32 pm:
Never, override or no override. There won’t be a budget until the GA can effective hobble Rauner, and that won’t happen until the GA GOP magically remembers that its part of an independent branch of government.
I’m not saying that the GA GOPs has to become toadies of Madigan. I’m saying that they need to quit being toadies of Rauner.
- Anonymous - Wednesday, Sep 2, 15 @ 2:35 pm:
Never what’s left can be lawsuits and court orders too. How could a lawsuit to raise tax’s work?
- Norseman - Wednesday, Sep 2, 15 @ 2:44 pm:
January at least when vote requirements decrease.
Casual Observer, what January are you talking about?
- Touré's Latte - Wednesday, Sep 2, 15 @ 2:50 pm:
So long as Rauner can keep the lights on and wage his war against reality there will be no budget.
- Judgment Day (on the road) - Wednesday, Sep 2, 15 @ 2:55 pm:
December (earliest) if House override passes.
IF the override passes, then there’s no reason for Rauner to do anything regarding tax increases. Pressure’s off - for the moment.
At that point, the next pressure points involve funding issues for CPS, City of Chicago, and Cook County.
By December, the State’s finances are virtually bone dry (meaning there’s no money for Chicago & CPS), and late December, 2015 is when the property tax levies have to be filed (schools are an exception).
So, force the tax levies to be filed (VERY, VERY large increases) and with no state money, it’s all on the Chicago Democrats to deal with property tax increases that could be as high as 45% (City of Chicago/CPS; See Nuveen Investments study on local property tax obligations for City of Chicago/CPS). Ouch!
Rauner will be able to make the Chicago Democrats own the local property tax increases going into an election cycle. Has the funds available to do it. Very ugly.
Or the Chicago Democrats could pass legislation to break the CTU bargaining ability. That would be interesting….
There’s all sorts of angles out there to consider. Can’t just use a linear thought process with all these angles.
- JS Mill - Wednesday, Sep 2, 15 @ 3:04 pm:
October. Not sure if I care anymore. Our funding will be reduced from the level indicated in the bill the governor signed. We will hang in there, somehow.
- Mama - Wednesday, Sep 2, 15 @ 3:17 pm:
My guess is (Jan. ‘16) when the funds dry up.
- Wensicia - Wednesday, Sep 2, 15 @ 3:17 pm:
I’ll say never. Patchwork, mini-budgets will be the Rauner legacy.
- Blink - Wednesday, Sep 2, 15 @ 3:29 pm:
This is the old “blink” game. Who is going to blink first. With the cast of characters (Rauner, Madigan & Cullerton) with the big egos all three have and the attitude of “I only care for MYSELF and no one else in this State” how can this ever be resolved. I vote for the resignations of all three (for the betterment of this State and the occupants of it) and start all over with three new faces. Would one EVER think these three selfish men would go for that? The word LEADER is not in their vocabulary nor could they even spell it. I will give them a hint……it stars with an L and ends with an R. Oops…this all started with an “R”. Go figure!
- What????? - Wednesday, Sep 2, 15 @ 3:42 pm:
I like those who pick a month. What do they know that no one else knows? Geeeeesh!! The crystal ball went out of style years ago. NEVER is the appropriate answer considering the actual evidence at this point. I agree with this “Blink” guy.
- Just Wondering - Wednesday, Sep 2, 15 @ 3:58 pm:
Everyone is talking about when the money dries up in January. While that is true for all the programs out there where there is a court order to pay. But the agencies have no more money to spend on basic office supplies and postage. From what I can tell that will happen by the end of September. Any thoughts on that?
- Courser - Wednesday, Sep 2, 15 @ 4:00 pm:
Maybe the key players can take a page from history and declare a Christmas truce.
- To Just Wondering - Wednesday, Sep 2, 15 @ 4:12 pm:
The problem is that the money NEVER dries up for people like Rauner, Cullerton and/or Madigan. Do you think these guys live paycheck to paycheck. Do you really think they care for John Q. Illinois citizen who does. If you believe they do would you like to buy a bridge? WOW!!!
- SAP - Wednesday, Sep 2, 15 @ 4:41 pm:
Going with January, because it won’t take a supermajority. I also predict that it will not include a tax increase and will be way out of balance. If you are looking for a final budget, I don’t think I can predict the correct decade.
- Hey Hickory - Wednesday, Sep 2, 15 @ 4:45 pm:
Who do you think should be in charge. Don’t say that and not offer an alternative answer or are you a State Senator, Representative or God forbid the Governor. Just asking……an answer, please.
- zatoichi - Wednesday, Sep 2, 15 @ 5:06 pm:
When the courts decide. With a $5B hole you gotta put cash away for bonds, pension and other mandated pays for April-June. That means December funds get chopped and Judge Coleman starts smacking people with contempt. Until then its finger pointing while the peasants lose.
- Jerry 101 - Wednesday, Sep 2, 15 @ 5:12 pm:
im being kind of flip, but I continue to maintain an estimate of about 2 to 3 months after Rauner leaves office.
- Daily minutia - Wednesday, Sep 2, 15 @ 9:13 pm:
DOC’s freezers are starting to get low. That may be the next crisis if courts don’t fix yet another issue for our fine leaders. I fear tonight’s win by Gov will further embolden if DOC’s pantry gets filled in next 30 days it will be January
- lost in the weeds - Wednesday, Sep 2, 15 @ 11:27 pm:
When Illinois becomes a territory again… 2018?
- Anon221 - Thursday, Sep 3, 15 @ 1:14 am:
http://www.ilga.gov/commission/lru/Fedman_2013.pdf
January when they all realize what they have thrown away.
- AJ - Thursday, Sep 3, 15 @ 7:13 am:
March….the 2016 budget set itself. Time for 2017.
- Dome Gnome - Thursday, Sep 3, 15 @ 7:52 am:
After the next governor is sworn in, we may finally see some real progress. Settle in, kids, it’s going to be quite a ride,